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Axactor SE

Investor Presentation May 7, 2024

3549_rns_2024-05-07_5d49915c-7233-4481-9cc9-dca380922cda.pdf

Investor Presentation

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Highlights

Financial update

Outlook

Q&A

Financial highlights for the quarter

Gross revenue declining by 4% y-o-y

• On the back of a challenging macro situation and moderate investments in 2023

Cash EBITDA declining by 5% y-o-y

  • Includes EUR 1.0m in restructuring cost in Germany
  • Part of a larger improvement project in Germany with expected annualized savings of EUR 6.5m

Healthy EBITDA margin of 46%

  • EBITDA of EUR 26m, down from EUR 30m last year
  • 48% EBITDA margin excluding restructuring cost

Annualized return on equity of 1%

• Burdened by "higher for longer" interest rates and a challenging collection environment

The industry is under pressure on profitability - Axactor top 3 on profitability in 2023

Return on equity to shareholders for selected peers in 20231 (Percent)

Why is the industry under pressure on profitability?

Key industry challenges… …Axactor response

1 Funding
Industry had easy access to cheap
funding, which now is more costly

Will aim for placing smaller bonds
more frequently to take down risk
2 Prices
Fierce competition has pushed
margins on NPL and 3PC down

Exit 3PC where profits are too low

Discipline on NPL investments
3 Collection
Reduced collection; interest rates,
inflation, changes in legislation

Reduce cost to collect

Actively seeking payment plans
4 M&A
Large failing M&A transactions

Focus on buying NPL-portfolios,
not companies
5 SPVs
Formation of costly, risky and
opaque securitization / SPV

Dissolved all co-investment
structures

-

-

-

Key profit improvement drivers going forward for Axactor

1. Accelerate accretive investments

- Market prices are becoming more attractive

NPL investments for selected peers in Europe in 2023 (EUR million)

Status Axactor

  • Moderate NPL investments of EUR 116m in '23 and EUR 11m in Q1 '24
  • Attractive prices with 35% gross IRR on recent deals1 vs. 18% on the total NPL book

Plan going forward

  • Current market prices are attractive
  • Axactor expect to gradually increase investments

2. Reduce cost to collect

- Competitive advantage on cost improved every year since 2020

Estimated NPL cost to collect Axactor and selected peers

2. Reduce cost to collect

- Improvements last twelve months per market

  • Closed call center in Jyväskylä
  • All operations co-located in Helsinki
  • Exited loss making 3PC segment
    • Closed call center in Saarbrücken
    • Renegotiated several 3PC contracts
    • Manning reduced from 150 to 108 FTE's1
    • Double digit growth on 3PC
    • Pilot on NPL collection in our low-cost 3PC call center in Milazzo
  • 3PC and NPL separated to secure focus

  • One management layer terminated

  • Exited loss making 3PC segment

  • NPL Sweden and NPL Norway organized under one management

  • Renegotiated low margin 3PC contracts

  • Launched new digital 3PC products
  • Steady growth on Secured segment

3. Declining interest rates

- Axactor will benefit materially if interest rates declines

EURIBOR 3 months (Jan '20 – Apr '24)1

A reduction in interest rates of 1pp will…

  • …improve Axactor's cash flow and net financial result by EUR ~9.3m on an annual basis2
  • …improve return on equity by ~1.6pp

10 1) Source: ECB 2) Axactor currently has no interest rate hedges in place. However, in the P&L there will be a positive effect of EUR 1m per quarter in 2024 and EUR 0.8m in 2025 from a realized hedge contract

Highlights

Financial update

Outlook

Q&A

Group: Gross revenue is down 4% y-o-y driven by both segments

Gross revenue (EUR million)

  • Gross revenue is down 4% y-o-y
    • NPL gross revenue declining by 4% y-o-y
    • 3PC gross revenue declining by 7% y-o-y
  • Disappointing result on both segments reflecting the current tough macroeconomic situation in Europe

NPL segment: A soft quarter on NPL

NPL Total income and CM% (EUR million, and %)

  • Total income and margins down y-o-y on the back of macroeconomic headwinds
  • Collection performance of 92% for the quarter
    • Satisfactory collection in southern Europe
    • More challenging to collect in Germany and the Nordics

3PC segment: A soft quarter on 3PC but new attractive contracts signed

3PC Total income and CM% (EUR million and %)

  • 3PC total income decline of 7% y-o-y
    • 5pp of the decline is attributable to closure of 3PC in Sweden and Finland
  • Margins slightly up driven by strict cost control
  • Expect growth in total income and margins from newly signed contracts with effect from Q3

Group: In summary a soft quarter on key metrics

Total income

EBITDA and EBITDA-margin (EUR million and %)

Cash EBITDA (EUR million)

ROE upheld at 6% last twelve months – despite increased cost of funding

Return on equity to shareholders (%)

Highlights

Financial update

Outlook

Q&A

Outlook for 2024

1 Collection
Experience a challenging collection environment which is expected to
prevail throughout 2024
2 OPEX
Absorbed inflation and achieved OPEX reduction y-o-y last two
quarters. Expect to be able to continue the trend
3 Cost of funding
Expect only modest reduction of cost of funding in 2024

Interest rates are fixed around the beginning of the quarter for Axactor
4 NPL investments
Soft start to the year with EUR 11m in Q1

Expect investment levels to gradually pick up during the year
5 Covenants
Compliant on all covenants per Q1
Monitoring ICR1

and Leverage ratio as the current headroom is limited

Highlights

Financial update

Outlook

Q&A

Supporting information

NPL investment commitments of EUR 16m next 12 months

Quarterly NPL investments (EUR million)

ERC increasing by 1% last twelve months

ERC development (EUR million)

Forward ERC profile by year (EUR million)

3PC volumes by geographic region

3PC Total income split by geographic region

  • Spain accounting for 52% of total income on 3PC
  • Segment closed down in Finland and Sweden, with no active clients per year-end 2023

Bond covenants (1/2)

Loan-to-value - covenant ≤80% (Net interest-bearing debt divided by total portfolio book value)

Secured Loan-to-value - covenant ≤60%

(Secured net interest-bearing debt divided by total portfolio book value)

Bond covenants (2/2)

Leverage ratio - covenant ≤4.0x (Net interest-bearing debt divided by LTM Pro-forma adjusted cash EBITDA

4.0 3.5 Q1 '22 3.6 Q2 '22 3.6 3.7 Q4 '22 3.8 Q1 '23 3.8 Q3 '23 4.0 Q3 '22 3.8 3.9 Q4 '23 Q2 '23 Q1 '24 Covenant NIBD / Pro-forma Cash EBITDA

Interest coverage ratio - covenant ≥3.0x (Pro-forma adjusted cash EBITDA divided by net interest expenses)

Terms and abbreviations

Abbreviations

3PC Third-party
collection
AGM Annual general
meeting
APM Alternative
performance
measures
ARM Accounts
receivable
management
B2B Business
to
business
Terms B2C Business
to
consumer
BoD Board
of
Directors
Active
forecast
Forecast
of
estimated
remaining
collection
on
NPL
portfolios
BS Consolidated
statement
of
financial
position
(balance
sheet)
Board Board
of
directors
CF Consolidated
statement
of
cash
flows
Cash
EBITDA
margin
Cash
EBITDA
as
a
percentage
of
gross
revenue
CGU Cash
generating
unit
Chair Chair
of
the
board
of
directors
CM Contribution
margin
Contribution
margin
(%)
Total
operating
expenses
(excluding
SG&A,
IT
and
corporate
cost)
as
a
percentage
D&A Depreciation
and
amortization
of
total
income
Dopex Direct
operating
expenses
Collection
performance
Gross collection on NPL portfolios in relation to active forecast, including sale of
repossessed
assets in relation to book value
EBIT Operating profit/Earnings before interest and tax
Cost-to-collect Cost to collect is calculated as segment operating expenses plus a pro rata EBITDA Earnings
before
interest,
tax,
depreciation
and
amortization
allocation of
unallocated
operating
expenses
and
unallocated
depreciation
and
ECL Expected
credit
loss
amortization.
The
segment
operating expense is used as allocation key for the
EGM Extraordinary
general
meeting
unallocated costs EPS Earnings
per
share
Equity
ratio
Total
equity
as
a
percentage
of
total
equity
and
liabilities
ERC Estimated
remaining
collection
Forward
flow agreement
Agreement
for
future
acquisitions
of
NPLs
at
agreed
prices
and
delivery
ESG Environmental,
social
and
governance
Gross
IRR
The
credit
adjusted
interest
rate
that
makes
the
net
present
value
of
ERC
equal
to
ESOP Employee
stock
ownership
plan
NPL
book
value,
calculated using monthly cash flows over a 180-months period
FSA The
financial
supervisory
authority
Group Axactor
ASA
and
all
its
subsidiaries
FTE Full
time
equivalent
GHG Greenhouse
gas
emissions
NPL
amortization rate
NPL
amortization
divided
by
collection
on
own
NPL
portfolios
IFRS International
financial
reporting
standards
NPL
cost-to-collect
ratio
NPL
cost
to
collect
divided
by
NPL
total
income
excluding
NPV
of
changes
in
LTV Loan
to
value
collection
forecasts and
change
in
fair
value
of
forward
flow
commitments
NCI Non-controlling
interests
One
off
portfolio
acquisition
Acquisition
of
a
single
portfolio
of
NPLs
NPL Non-performing
loan
Opex Total
operating
expenses
OB Outstanding
balance,
the
total
amount
Axactor
can
collect
on
claims
under
Recovery
rate
Portion
of
the original
debt
repaid
management,
including outstanding principal, interest and fees
Replacement
capex
Acquisitions
of
new
NPLs
to
keep
the
same
book
value
of
NPLs
from
last
period
OCI Consolidated
statement
of
other
comprehensive
income
Repossession Taking
possession
of
property
due
to
default
on
payment
of
loans
secured
by
P&L Consolidated
statement
of
profit
or
loss
property PCI Purchased
credit
impaired
Repossessed
assets
Property
repossessed
from
secured
non-performing
loans
PPA Purchase
price
allocations
REO Real
estate
owned
SG&A,
IT
and
corporate
cost
Total
operating
expenses
for
overhead
functions,
such
as
HR,
finance
and
legal
etc
ROE Return
on
equity
Solution
rate
Accumulated paid principal amount for the period divided by accumulated SDG Sustainable
development
goal
collectable principal
amount for the period. Usually expressed on a monthly basis
SG&A Selling,
general
&
administrative
SPV Special
purpose
vehicle
VIU Value
in
use
VPS Verdipapirsentralen/Norwegian
central
securities
depository
WACC Weighted
average
cost
of
capital

WAEP Weighted average exercise price

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