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INVL Technology
Investor Presentation • Oct 2, 2023
2265_rns_2023-10-02_24c6a570-1bab-485a-9e43-1a0965395100.pdf
Investor Presentation
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Getting closer to EXIT phase
Both revenues and earnings were above our expectations. The NAV discount is at record highs, while the exit phase is starting next year. We raise our Base case Fair value.
Sales and earnings above estimates
The portfolio companies' Q2/22 Sales was 25% or EUR 2.9m above forecast (EUR 14.5m vs. est. EUR 11.6m) as Q2/23 and H1/23 Sales grew 51%, and 37% y-on-y, respectively. The growth was driven by the NRD Companies and the Novian segment with H1/23 Sales increases of 98%, and 27%, respectively. The Q2/23 EBIT was EUR 0.5m vs. an estimated loss of EUR 0.2m.
NAV discount at highs with exits coming up…
The NAV discount is at an all-time high around 39% vs. the long-term average of 21% since 2017. Next year, the exit phase will start. We believe an exit around book value could result in a decreasing NAV discount. The long-term avg. NAV discount (21%) implies a share price of EUR 2.48, equal to an upside of 30% based on reported NAV.
Base Case share price EUR 3.15
We raise our sum-of-the-parts Base case Fair value per share to EUR 3.34 (prev. 3.15), vs. the latest reported NAV of EUR 3.14. This implies a P/Sales multiple of 0.9x based on all portfolio companies' sales, which we regard as conservative for a technology company. We foresee a continued positive NAV development in the forecast period 2023-25E.
Key figures (MEUR)
kljad;fljasfj ;ljasfj
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023E | 2024E | 2025E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35.4 | 34.9 | 36.6 | 39.7 | 43.1 |
| 2.7 | -0.4 | 1.7 | 3.1 | 3.4 |
| 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| 4.2 | 0.5 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 3.5 |
| -0.7 | -0.7 | -0.7 | -0.7 | -0.8 |
| -0.8 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 2.7 |
| 37.5 | 47.6 | 56.5 | 61.2 | 64.8 |
| 1.5 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 3.4 | 4.2 |
| 1.6% | 26.7% | 18.8% | 8.3% | 5.9% |
| 3.9% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 5.6% | 6.5% |
| 0.61 | 0.48 | kjdsl 0.41 |
fjljsf;lasdjfkljdkl 0.38 |
0.36 |
| lladksf ldjsf |
fjdkjkljasdfklj kdjaf jdakf j;ldfj;l dkjafj kjdk fjdskjf ;lasjfkjad;f jdsj f;djsfk jdkjas fjasdf; j;dlfj;lasjf;ldkjflkjd;lfj;lajf;l jfj Source: Company data, Enlight Research estimates, *external valuation (history), Enlight Research (estimate)
Commissioned Research – Q2 2023 Update
| Fair value range (EUR) | |
|---|---|
| Bull (P/Sales 1.2x) | 4.38 |
| Base (P/Sales 0.9x) | 3.34 |
| Bear(P/Sales 0.6x) | 2.30 |
| Key Data | |
| Price (EUR) | 1.91 |
| Ticker | INC1L |
| Country | Lithuania |
| Listed | Vilnius (Lithuania) |
| Market Cap (EURm) | 23 |
| Net debt (EURm) | 0 |
| Shares (m) | 12.2 |
| Free float | 36% |
| Price range | |
|---|---|
| 52-week high | 2.38 |
| 52-week low | 1.91 |
Analyst
Coverage frequency
2x per year
Baltics - Lithuania
Key takeaways
Strong sales growth
The Sales for all portfolio companies grew 51% y-on-y in Q2/23, resulting in a H1/23 sales growth of 37% y-on-y to EUR 27.4m from EUR 20.1m. The NRD Companies segment posted the highest H1/23 sales growth (+98% y-on-y). In euro terms, the largest segment (two thirds of total sales), Novian, contributed the most to the sales growth (sales grew EUR 3.9m or 27% y-on-y). We believe the two main reasons behind the strong sales growth this year are new projects have been signed at higher rates (replacing old lower rate projects), and some existing projects' pricing has been adjusted for inflation. To reach our full-year 2023 Sales forecast of EUR 56.5m, the H2/23 Sales "only" need to grow 6% y-on-y to EUR 29.1m, which feels realistic given that Q4 is usually the strongest quarter, and the strong H1/23 growth of 37%.
| Sales growth table | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio company | Q1/23 | Q2/23 | H1/23 | H2/23E |
| NRD Companies | 38% | 168% | 98% | 14% |
| Novian | 26% | 28% | 27% | 2% |
| NRD CS | -14% | 39% | 14% | 16% |
| Total | 24% | 51% | 37% | 6% |
Source: Company report (historical), Enlight Research (estimates)
Source: Company (historical), Enlight Research (estimates)
NAV discount at historical high
The current NAV discount of 39% is the highest since being listed (previous high was 37% in Q4/18). Apart from the initial quarter as a listed company when the share was trading at a small premium of 1%, the lowest discount was in 2021 when it was 3-8% for three quarters in a row as the Cybersecurity segment posted strong growth. The average discount since Q1/17 is 21%, which implies a share price of EUR 2.48, indicating an upside of 30%. Given the strong H1/23 sales growth, we forecast a NAV per share at the end of 2023 of EUR 3.27, equal to full-year increase of 3%. We forecast a NAV increase of 6% in both 2024 and 2025 to EUR 3.48 and EUR 3.70, respectively.
INVL Technology share NAV discount
Source: Company reports, *share prices on 03 September 2023
| NAV discount |
|---|
| Current share price (EUR) | 1.91 |
|---|---|
| Last reported NAV/shr. (EUR) | 3.14 |
| NAV discount | 39% |
| Avg. NAV discount since 2017 | 21% |
| Share price at avg. NAV discount (EUR) | 2.48 |
| Upside vs. avg. NAV discount since 2017 | 30% |
| Source: Company reports (NAV), Enlight Research (Upside) |
NAV per share & Pct. change
Source: Company reports (historical), Enlight Research (estimates)
Enlight Research
EXITS could reduce NAV discount
INVL Technology's Article of Association stipulates that the company will operate for 10 years between 14 July 2016 to 14 July 2026, with a possible 2-year extension. The pre-defined end-date gives exit and mark-to-market assurance to investors which is important with regards to the possible NAV discount elimination. The company's lifespan can be divided into the following three phases: investment period (2016- 2021), value creation period (2021-2024), exit period (2024-2026) with an optional extension till 2028. Hence, we are entering the exit period already next year. A divestment of a portfolio company at or around NAV could help to reduce the NAV discount substantially, in our view.
Source: Company
External valuation upside
Given the strong performance in H1/23 with sales increasing 37% y-on-y, the EUR 34.9m year end 2022 external valuation of the portfolio companies appears to be on the low side, in our view. We see upside to the valuation if the strong growth continues in H2/23. Worth noting is that an external valuation is only done at the end of a calendar year. The interim periods simply adjust the external valuation for the portfolio companies' net profit as well as expenditures for audit, valuation, and management fee i.e., interim reports do not include external valuations.
Portfolio companies Valuation End of 2022 Q1/23 H1/23 NRD Companies 7.3 7.5 7.5 Novian 17.6 17.1 16.8 NRD CS 9.9 10.0 9.7 FINTime 0.2 0.2 0.1
chg. year-to-date -0.7% -2.1% Source: Company reports (End of 2022 done by external valuator, Q1/23 and H1/23 is the 2022 valuation adjusted for portfolio companies' profit, expenditures for audit, valuation, and management fee)
Total 34.9 34.7 34.2
Source: Company reports
Valuation
Market volatility result in peer contraction
Since our last update in April this year, all peer segments, except Cybersecurity, saw a decline in their median P/Sales valuation multiples – Software peer multiple declined to 2.1x (2.5x), Consulting peer multiple declined to 0.60x (0.70x), Infrastructure peer multiple declined to 0.41x (0.52x). Meanwhile, the Cybersecurity peer P/Sales multiple increased to 2.1x (1.6x).
Nov 2020 (Q3/20 Update) Apr 2021 (Q4/20 Update) Sep 2021 (Q2/21 Update) Apr 2022 (Q4/21 Update)
Sep 2022 (Q2/22 Update) Apr 2023 (Q4/22 Update) Sep 2023 (Q2/23 Update)
Source: MarketScreener, Enlight Research, Introduce Research, DnB research, Share prices on 21 September 2023, P/Sales multiple based on current forecast year
Base case Sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) Valuation
Our P/Sales 2023 Base case sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation per share is EUR 3.34 (prev. 3.15). Our valuation assumes NAV discount of 20% which is in-line with the long-term average discount of 21%, but lower than the current discount of 37%. Our sales weighted P/Sales multiple of 0.9x implies a discount of around 27% to the weighted peer average P/Sales multiple of 1.2x.
Fair value Invalda Technology (Base case)
| Enlight | Enlight | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weighted P/Sales 2023 | (W)P/Sales | Sales | Sales | Sales | F V | FV/share | ||
| Base case | Peer avg. | discount | 2021 | 2022 | 2023E | (EURm) | (EUR) | |
| Business area: Business climate improvement & e-governance | ||||||||
| NRD Companies | 1.2 | 1.7 | 26% | 6.3 | 8.5 | 12.3 | 15.2 | 1.26 |
| Business area: IT services & software | ||||||||
| Novian Companies | 0.7 | 0.9 | 27% | 25.8 | 33.0 | 37.3 | 24.6 | 2.04 |
| Business area: Cybersecurity | ||||||||
| NRD CS | 1.5 | 2.0 | 26% | 5.4 | 6.1 | 7.0 | 10.5 | 0.87 |
| Business area: Business process outsourcing | ||||||||
| FINtime | na | na | na | na | na | na | 0.147 | 0.01 |
| Group total | 0.9 | 1.2 | 27% | 37.5 | 47.6 | 56.5 | 50.4 | 4.18 |
| Sales growth | 12% | 2 % | 27% | |||||
| Add Net cash: | 0.0 | 0.00 | ||||||
| Group total: | 50.4 | 4.18 | ||||||
| Less assumed NAV discount: | 20% | 20% | ||||||
| Less assumed NAV discount (EUR): | 10.1 | 0.84 | ||||||
| Enlight Base case Fair Value: | 40.3 | 3.34 |
Source: Historical figures (Company reports), Forecast figures (Enlight Research), Peer P/Sales average (MarketScreener, Enlight Research, Introduce). Based on peer valuation on 21 September 2023
| P eer t ab les | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I T I n frast ru c t u re servic es | ||||||||||
| Price Mcap (m) | P/Sales | P/Sales | P/Sales EBIT marg. EBIT marg. EBIT marg. | |||||||
| Company | Ticker | Ccy | (last) | (last) | 2022 | 2023E | 2024E | 2022 | 2023E | 2024E |
| Dustin | DUST | SEK | 21.65 | 2,467 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 3.2% | 2.1% | 2.8% |
| Proact IT Atea |
PACT ATEA |
SEK NOK |
73.15 134.00 |
2,012 | 0.42 0.46 |
0.42 0.40 |
0.41 0.38 |
5.6% 3.7% |
5.2% 3.8% |
5.7% 4.0% |
| CGit | CGIT B | SEK | 38.30 | 14,881 6 0 |
0.39 | 0.60 | 0.52 | 1.4% | -2.3% | 0.9% |
| 0 . 3 4 | 0 . 3 8 | 0 . 3 5 | 3 . 5 % | 2 . 2 % | 3 . 4 % | |||||
| Average Med ian |
0 . 4 0 | 0 . 4 1 | 0 . 3 9 | 3 . 5 % | 3 . 0 % | 3 . 4 % | ||||
| Cyb ersec u rit y | ||||||||||
| Price Mcap (m) | P/Sales | P/Sales | P/Sales EBIT marg. EBIT marg. EBIT marg. | |||||||
| Company | Ticker | Ccy | (last) | (last) | 2022 | 2023E | 2024E | 2022 | 2023E | 2024E |
| Clavister Holding | CLAV | SEK | 6.16 | 348 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | -35.9% | -14.0% | -7.0% |
| Freja eID Group | FREJA | SEK | 8.32 | 157 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.9 | -99.2% | -26.9% | -6.1% |
| Withsecure OYJ | FSC1V | EUR | 1.00 | 175 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.1 | -31.6% | -23.8% | -8.9% |
| Average | 2 . 6 | 2 . 0 | 1 . 6 | -5 5 . 6 % | -2 1 . 6 % | -7 . 3 % | ||||
| Med ian | 2 . 4 | 2 . 1 | 1 . 9 | -3 5 . 9 % | -2 3 . 8 % | -7 . 0 % | ||||
| Average ex c lu d in g ex t rem es | -1 3 . 5 % | |||||||||
| So ft w are | ||||||||||
| Price Mcap (m) | P/Sales | P/Sales | P/Sales EBIT marg. EBIT marg. EBIT marg. | |||||||
| Company | Ticker | Ccy | (last) | (last) | 2022 | 2023E | 2024E | 2022 | 2023E | 2024E |
| Agillic | AGILC | DKK | 18.8 | 193 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 2.1 | -17% | 3 % | 5 % |
| Artificial Solutions | ASAI | SEK | 0.912 | 9 3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | -195% | -124% | -50% |
| Briox | BRIX | SEK | 3.52 | 202 | 23.4 | 16.8 | 11.9 | -263% | -192% | -118% |
| Efecte Oyj | EFECTE | EUR | 8.2 | 5 2 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | -2% | -5% | 3 % |
| FormPipe Software | FPIP | SEK | 25.4 | 1,377 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 3 % | 9 % | 13% |
| Fortnox | FNOX | SEK | 60.23 | 36,725 | 28.8 | 21.8 | 16.8 | 36% | 40% | 44% |
| LeadDesk Oyj | LEADD | EUR | 7.44 | 4 1 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | -5% | -3% | 1 % |
| Lime Technologies | LIME | SEK | 272.8 | 3,623 | 7.4 | 6.3 | 5.5 | 19% | 20% | 21% |
| Litium | LITI | SEK | 8.88 | 147 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.6 | -19% | -10% | 6 % |
| Siili Solutions Oyj | SIILI | EUR | 10.2 | 8 3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 9 % | 5 % | 7 % |
| BuildData | BUILD | SEK | 3.4 | 213 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | -27% | -29% | -4% |
| Average | 7 . 0 | 5 . 4 | 4 . 2 | -4 2 % | -2 6 % | -7 % | ||||
| Med ian | 2 . 4 | 2 . 1 | 1 . 9 | -5 . 5 % | -3 . 0 % | 5 . 4 % | ||||
| Average ex c lu d in g ex t rem es | 2 . 7 | 2 . 3 | 2 . 0 | |||||||
| I T Co n su lt in g | ||||||||||
| Price Mcap (m) | P/Sales | P/Sales | P/Sales EBIT marg. EBIT marg. EBIT marg. | |||||||
| Company | Ticker | Ccy | (last) | (last) | 2022 | 2023E | 2024E | 2022 | 2023E | 2024E |
| B3 Consulting Group | B3 | SEK | 90.8 | 805 | 0.70 | 0.68 | 0.64 | 12.0% | 9.5% | 10.7% |
| CAG Group | CAG | SEK | 100 | 717 | 0.90 | 0.81 | 0.77 | 9.1% | 8.2% | 9.1% |
| Digia Oyj | DIGIA | EUR | 5.6 | 149 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.77 | 7.4% | 7.9% | 9.2% |
| Solteq Oyj | SOLTEQ | EUR | 0.959 | 1 9 | 0.27 | 0.31 | 0.30 | -6.4% | 13.0% | 6.0% |
| Time People Group | TPGR | SEK | 16.2 | 117 | 0.40 | 0.35 | 0.33 | 8.2% | 5.9% | 7.2% |
| Innofactor Plc | IFA1V | EUR | 1.15 | 4 2 | 0.59 | 0.52 | 0.49 | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.1% |
| Average | 0 . 6 2 | 0 . 5 8 | 0 . 5 5 | 6 . 2 % | 8 . 6 % | 8 . 4 % | ||||
| Med ian | 0 . 6 4 | 0 . 6 0 | 0 . 5 7 | 7 . 8 % | 8 . 0 % | 8 . 6 % |
Source: MarketScreener, Enlight Research, Introduce. Based on share prices on 21 September 2023
Q2 Estimates vs. Outcome
Portfolio companies estimates vs. outcome
The Q2/23 Group Sales of EUR 14.5m was 24.7% or EUR 2.9m above our EUR 11.6m estimate. All segments posted higher than expected sales. The largest positive deviation came from the NRD Companies, which recorded Q2/23 sales of EUR 3.9m or EUR 1.7m above our estimate. The largest segment, Novian (~2/3 of sales), Q2/23 sales was EUR 0.8m above our estimate, while the Cybersecurity segment had EUR 0.4m higher sales than expected. The Q2/23 Group EBIT of EUR 0.5m was EUR 0.7m above our negative EBIT forecast loss of EUR 0.2m, as Eliminations were significantly lower than we estimated. Amongst the portfolio companies, the Cybersecurity had a positive EBIT deviation of EUR 0.1m, while the Novian EBIT came EUR 0.3m below our estimate (NRD Companies in-line).
| Q2/23 | Q2/23 | Diff. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales by portfolio company (EURm) | Estimate | Outcome | EURm | % |
| NRD Companies | 2.2 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 80.1% |
| Novian | 8.1 | 8.8 | 0.8 | 9.7% |
| NRD CS | 1.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 26.3% |
| Group sales | 11.6 | 14.5 | 2.9 | 24.7% |
| Q2/23 | Q2/23 | Diff. | ||
| Sales growth | Estimate | Outcome | EURm | %-pts |
| NRD Companies | 49.0% | 168.2% | nm | 119.3 |
| Novian | 16.8% | 28.1% | nm | 11.3 |
| NRD CS | 10.0% | 38.9% | nm | 28.9 |
| Group sales growth | 20.7% | 50.6% | nm | 2985 |
| Q2/23 | Q2/23 | Diff. | ||
| EBIT by portfolio company (EURm) | Estimate | Outcome | EURm | % |
| NRD Companies | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 32.5% |
| Novian | 0.4 | 0.0 | -0.3 | -89.5% |
| NRD CS | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 117.6% |
| Eliminations | -0.8 | 0.1 | 0.9 | -109.0% |
| Group EBIT (after Eliminations) | -0.2 | 0.5 | 0.7 | -348.0% |
| Q2/23 | Q2/23 | Diff. | ||
| EBIT margin by Segment | Estimate | Outcome | EURm | %-pts |
| NRD Companies | 6.4% | 4.7% | nm | -1.7 |
| Novian (incl. Elsis PRO) | 4.8% | 0.5% | nm | -4.4 |
| NRD CS | 7.0% | 12.1% | nm | 5.1 |
| Group EBIT margin Source: Company reports, Enlight Research |
-1.8% | 3.5% | nm | 5.3 |
Estimate changes
Portfolio companies Estimate changes
Our Total Sales estimate for all portfolio companies is raised by 3-5% for 2023-25, mainly due to higher sales for NRD Companies and NRD CS segments. Our 2023 EBIT estimate is lowered by EUR 0.7m following lower estimated sales by the Novian segment. Our 2024 EBIT is lowered slightly by EUR 0.2m to EUR 3.4m.
| Sales all portfolio companies (EURm) | 2023E | 2024E | 2025E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Old estimate | 54.1 | 59.6 | 63.1 |
| New estimate | 56.5 | 61.2 | 64.8 |
| Change | 2.4 | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| Change (pct) | 4.5% | 2.6% | 2.7% |
| EBIT all portfolio companies (EURm) | 2023E | 2024E | 2025E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Old estimate | 2.5 | 3.6 | 4.2 |
| New estimate | 1.8 | 3.4 | 4.2 |
| Change | -0.7 | -0.2 | 0.0 |
| Change (pct) | -26.2% | -4.8% | 0.4% |
Source: Enlight Research
Holding company Estimate changes
We lower our Fair value (FV) of financial assets slightly by 1-2% for 2023-2025. The change in FV of financial assets has significant impact on the Holding company's estimated Total income and EBIT as they are mainly made up of FV changes. Important to note is that the Holding company Income statement mainly consist of non-cash flow items e.g., the Change in FV of financial assets will not be converted to cash until exits are made, while the performance fee provisions will not become a cash outflow until it is paid out at the end of the company life (2026 or later).
Holding company Estimate changes
| Fair value financial assets | 2023E | 2024E | 2025E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Old estimate | 37.3 | 40.1 | 43.6 |
| New estimate | 36.6 | 39.7 | 43.1 |
| Change | -0.6 | -0.3 | -0.5 |
| Change (pct) | -1.7% | -0.9% | -1.2% |
| Change FV financial assets | 2023E | 2024E | 2025E |
| Old estimate | 2.3 | 2.8 | 3.5 |
| New estimate | 1.7 | 3.1 | 3.4 |
| Change | -0.6 | 0.3 | -0.2 |
| Change (pct) | -27.5% | 10.5% | -4.8% |
| Total income | 2023E | 2024E | 2025E |
| Old estimate | 2.5 | 3.0 | 3.7 |
| New estimate | 1.9 | 3.3 | 3.5 |
| Change | -0.6 | 0.3 | -0.2 |
| Change (pct) | -25.6% | 9.9% | -4.6% |
| EBIT | 2023E | 2024E | 2025E |
| Old estimate | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.9 |
| New estimate | 1.2 | 2.5 | 2.7 |
| Change | -0.6 | 0.3 | -0.2 |
Source: Enlight Research
Risk factors
Below is a list of what we believe are some of the most important risks, however, this list should not be regarded as a complete list of risks. For examples of additional risks, we refer to the listing document and company reports.
Risk of change of technology
The technology sector is in constant change. Failure to adapt and learn a new technology could result in a drop in sale and earnings and hence lower the Fair value of the company.
The state of the M&A market
If the market for mergers and acquisitions is depressed during the exit phase (mainly 2026 with possible 2 years extension), the deal valuations could be lower than expected and it could be hard to sell portfolio companies.
Political risk
A significant share of clients are public institutions and hence the company has exposure to public sector contracts, which entails political risks.
Intellectual Property risk
A significant share of the company's assets consists of intellectual property in the form of proprietary software and technology know-how. Therefore, the risk that somebody will try and steal intellectual property is present.
Valuation risk
The fair value of the holding companies is done by an independent external valuation firm. However, there is no guarantee that the final exit price of company will be according to the external valuation, nor to our valuation.
NAV discount risk
Even though the NAV of INVL Technology increases, there is no guarantee that the share price will increase in-line with the NAV as the NAV discount could increase as well.
Liquidity risk
The trading activity (liquidity) on the Nasdaq Baltic Exchange is low relative to most Western European markets. Therefore, it may be hard to buy and sell INVL Technology shares without affecting the share price.
Russia – Ukraine risk
The company has no direct exposure to Russia or Ukraine. However, a general downturn in the economy due to the Russia – Ukraine war can affect the company's sales and profits.
Inflation risk
High inflation is likely to lead to an increase in INVL Technologies' operating expenses, which could affect the margins negatively if the company cannot pass on these costs to the clients.
| October 1, 2023 | INVL Technology |
|---|---|
| ----------------- | ----------------- |
| Income Statement | 2021 | 2022 | 2023E | 2024E | 2025E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | 4.2 | 0.5 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 3.5 |
| Total operating costs | -1.5 | 1.6 | -0.7 | -0.7 | -0.8 |
| EBITDA | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 2.7 |
| Depreciation & Amort. | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| One-off EBIT items | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| EBIT | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 2.7 |
| Financial net | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Pre-tax profit | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 2.7 |
| Taxes | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Minority interest | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Other items | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Net profit | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 2.7 |
| Balance Sheet | 2021 | 2022 | 2023E | 2024E | 2025E |
| Cash and cash equivalent | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Receivables | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Inventories | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Other current assets | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Total current assets | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 6 |
| Tangible assets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Goodwill & intangible | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| assets | |||||
| Lease & Investment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| properties | |||||
| Long-term Investments | 35 | 35 | 37 | 40 | 43 |
| Associated companies | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Other long-term assets | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Total fixed assets | 37 | 37 | 39 | 42 | 45 |
| Total Assets | 39 | 38 | 42 | 47 | 51 |
| Accounts payable | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Short-term IB debt | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Other current liabilities | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total current liabilities | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Long-term IB debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Convertibles & Lease liab. Deferred tax liab. |
0 0 |
0 0 |
0 0 |
0 0 |
0 0 |
| Provisions | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Other long-term liab. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total long-term liab. | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total Liabilities | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Minority interest | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shareholders' equity | 36 | 38 | 39 | 42 | 45 |
| Total liabilities and equity | 39 | 38 | 42 | 47 | 51 |
| Free Cash Flow | 2021 | 2022 | 2023E | 2024E | 2025E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating profit | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 2.7 |
| Depreciation & Amort. | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Working capital chg. | 0.6 | -0.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Other Operating CF items | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Operating Cash Flow | 3.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 2.7 |
| Net investments | -3.9 | -0.3 | -1.7 | -3.1 | -3.4 |
| Other items | 0.8 | -2.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Free Cash Flow | 0.1 | -1.4 | -0.5 | -0.6 | -0.6 |
| Capital structure | 2021 | 2022 | 2023E | 2024E | 2025E |
| Equity ratio | 93.5% | 99.5% | 93.8% | 89.0% | 87.8% |
| Debt / Equity ratio | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.2% | 12.0% | 13.5% |
| Gearing % | -5.8% | -1.9% | -0.5% | 0.9% | 2.2% |
| Net debt/EBITDA | -0.8 | -0.3 | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.4 |
| Profitability | 2021 | 2022 | 2023E | 2024E | 2025E |
| ROE | 7.5% | 5.7% | 3.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% |
| FCF yield | 0.4% | -5.4% | -2.2% | -2.4% | -2.6% |
| EBITDA margin | 63.1% | 411.5% | 62.6% | 77.2% | 77.4% |
| EBIT margin | 63.1% | 411.5% | 62.6% | 77.2% | 77.4% |
| PTP margin | 63.1% | 411.5% | 62.6% | 77.2% | 77.4% |
| Net margin | 63.1% | 411.5% | 62.6% | 77.2% | 77.4% |
| Valuation | 2021 | 2022 | 2023E | 2024E | 2025E |
| P/E | 12.6 | 12.3 | 19.9 | 9.1 | 8.5 |
| P/E adjusted | 12.6 | 12.3 | 19.9 | 9.1 | 8.5 |
| P/Sales | 8.0 | 50.7 | 13.0 | 7.3 | 6.8 |
| EV/Sales | 7.5 | 49.3 | 12.9 | 7.5 | 7.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.8 | 12.0 | 19.7 | 9.3 | 8.8 |
| EV/EBIT | 11.8 | 12.0 | 20.4 | 9.5 | 9.1 |
| P/BV | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| P/BV tangible | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| Per share ratios | 2021 | 2022 | 2023E | 2024E | 2025E |
| EPS | 0.22 | 0.18 | 0.10 | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| EPS, adjusted | 0.22 | 0.18 | 0.10 | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| Operating CF/share | 0.27 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| Free Cash Flow/share | 0.01 | -0.12 | -0.04 | -0.05 | -0.05 |
| BV/share | 2.99 | 3.17 | 3.27 | 3.48 | 3.70 |
| Tangible BV/share | 2.99 | 3.17 | 3.27 | 3.48 | 3.70 |
| Div. per share | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Div. payout ratio Dividend yield |
0.0% 0.0% |
0.0% 0.0% |
0.0% 0.0% |
0.0% 0.0% |
0.0% 0.0% |
| Shareholders | Capital | Votes | |||
| UAB LJB Investments AB Invalda INVL |
4.781 3.441 |
19.91 % 14.33 % |
|||
| Irena Ona Miseikiene | 2.891 | 12.04 % | |||
| AB Lietuvos draudimas | 1.794 | 7.47 % | |||
| Kazimieras Tonkunas | 1.333 | 5.55 % | |||
| Alvydas Banys | 1.220 | 5.08 % | |||
| Key people | |
|---|---|
| CEO | Kazimieras Tonkunas |
| CFO | |
| IR | |
| Chairman | Kazimieras Tonkunas |
| P/E | EPS |
|---|---|
| Price per share | Profit before extraordinary items and taxes – income taxes + |
| Earnings per share | minority interest |
| Number of shares | |
| Earnings per share | |
| P/Sales | DPS |
| Market cap | Dividend for financial period per share |
| Sales | |
| P/BV | CEPS |
| Price per share | Gross cash flow from operations |
| Shareholders' equity + taxed provisions per share | Number of shares |
| P/CF | EV/Share |
| Price per share | |
| Operating cash flow per share | Enterprise value |
| Number of shares | |
| EV (Enterprise value) | Sales/Share |
| Market cap + Net debt + Minority interest at market value – share of | Sales |
| associated companies at market value | Number of shares |
| Net debt | EBITDA/Share |
| Interest-bearing debt – financial assets | |
| Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization | |
| Number of shares | |
| EV/Sales | EBIT/Share |
| Enterprise value | Operating profit |
| Number of shares | |
| Sales | |
| EV/EBITDA | EAFI/Share |
| Enterprise value | Pre-tax profit |
| Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization | Number of shares |
| EV/EBIT Enterprise value |
Capital employed/Share |
| Operating profit | Total assets – non-interest-bearing debt |
| Number of shares | |
| Div yield, % | Total assets |
| Dividend per share | Balance sheet total |
| Price per share | |
| Payout ratio, % | Interest coverage (x) |
| Total dividends | Operating profit |
| Earnings before extraordinary items and taxes – income taxes + minority interest | Financial items |
| Net cash/Share | Asset turnover (x) |
| Financial assets – interest-bearing debt | Turnover |
| Number of shares | Balance sheet total (average) |
| ROA, % | Debt/Equity, % |
| Operating profit + financial income + extraordinary items | Interest-bearing debt |
| Balance sheet total – interest-free short-term debt – long-term advances | Shareholders' equity + minority interest + taxed provisions |
| received and accounts payable (average) | |
| ROCE, % | Equity ratio, % |
| Profit before extraordinary items + interest expenses + other financial costs | Shareholders' equity + minority interest + taxed provisions |
| Balance sheet total – non-interest-bearing debt (average) | Total assets – interest-free loans |
| ROE, % | CAGR, % |
| Profit before extraordinary items – income taxes | Cumulative annual growth rate = Average growth rate per year |
| Shareholders' equity + minority interest + taxed provisions (average) | |
Disclaimer
Enlight Research OÜ's main valuation methods are discounted cash flow valuation and peer valuation with common multiples such as Price to Earnings, Enterprise Value to EBITDA, dividend yield etc. Aforementioned methods are used to estimate a company's fair value according to the following three scenarios: Bull (positive), Base (main scenario), and Bear (negative).
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