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Zalando SE — Call Transcript 2021
Mar 16, 2021
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Call Transcript
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Zalando FY/2020 Earnings Call
David Schröder, CFO March 16th, 2021
In 2020 we made significant progress towards our vision to become the Starting Point for Fashion, combined with an outstanding financial and operational performance
Becoming the Starting Point for Fashion in Europe: Accelerated new customer growth of 33% YoY, lifting our active customer base to 38.7m
Accelerated Platform Transition: 24% Partner Program share1 (+9pp) in Q4, ZFS surpassing 50% share in Q4 and ZMS with strong recovery in HY2/2020
Outstanding Performance: GMV growth of 30.4%, revenue growth of 23.1% and adjusted EBIT margin of 5.3% in FY/20, exceeding our initial 2020 guidance
Strong Balance Sheet: Successful placement of 1bn EUR in Convertible Bonds to further accelerate our growth strategy and to invest with even more conviction
We are taking decisive and transformative steps to enable our future growth
We strongly delivered against our strategic priority to grow our active customer base
- 1) Based on the change in consent management following the GDPR introduction, part of the data is estimated on a statistical method
- 2) Defined as GMV divided by the number of orders
- 3) Defined as GMV divided by the number of active customers
The consistently positive long term development of our customer cohorts demonstrates our ability to build deeper and healthier customer relationships over time
1) Cohort refers to customers grouped by the calendar year in which they first placed an order with Zalando.
2
We were able to significantly accelerate our journey to become a platform business
1) Partner Program share of 40% refers to our business model mix ambition for 2023/24. In our long-term target model, we aim for a 50% Partner Program share
2) Refers to our long-term target model ambition
Financial Update FY and Q4 2020
Despite a challenging start, 2020 saw a significant acceleration in GMV growth with an outstanding finish in Q4
1) FY/20 (FY/19) contains -€449.8m (-€394.1m) reconciliation; Q4/20 (Q4/19) contains -€114.2m (-€103.3m) reconciliation
2) Other segments including various emerging businesses; private label offering zLabels no longer presented as separate unit since Q1/19
Significant YoY profitability increase across all regions
1) FY/20 (FY/19) contains €0.2m (€0.6m) reconciliation; Q4/20 (Q4/19) contains -€3.9m (€0.0m) reconciliation
2) Excluding equity-settled share-based compensation (SBC) in FY/20 of -53.8€m, FY/19 of -46.0 €m, Q4/20 of -12.7 €m, Q4/19 of -11.3€m; and non-operating one-off effects in FY/19 of -13.0€m
3) All other segments including various emerging businesses; private label offering zLabels no longer presented as separate unit since Q1/19
Profitability improvements driven by temporary benefits from lower return rates and structurally increasing operating leverage
| Costs and margins (in % of revenue) |
FY | Q4 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2020 | Delta | 2019 | 2020 | Delta | ||
| Cost of sales | (57.5%) | (57.5%) | 0.0pp | (57.0%) | (56.0%) | (1.0pp) | Less price investments offset |
| Gross profit | 42.5% | 42.5% | 0.0pp | 43.0% | 44.0% | 1.0pp | by category mix |
| Fulfillment costs | (27.3%) | (25.7%) | (1.6pp) | (25.3%) | (22.9%) | (2.5pp) | Higher utilization & lower return rate |
| Marketing costs | (8.1%) | (8.3%) | 0.2pp | (8.7%) | (11.1%) | 2.5pp | Increased marketing to capture full demand potential |
| Administrative expenses & Other | (4.6%) | (3.9%) | (0.7pp) | (4.0%) | (3.1%) | (0.9pp) | |
| EBIT | 2.6% | 4.6% | 2.0pp | 5.0% | 6.9% | 1.9pp | FY/20 pro-forma |
| Adj. EBIT1 | 3.5% | 5.3% | 1.8pp | 5.6% | 7.4% | 1.8pp | margin: 3.8% |
1) Excluding equity-settled share-based payment expense ("SBC"), restructuring costs and non-operating one-time effects
Negative net working capital and lower level of capex in line with guidance
11
Outlook
Since 2019 we have consistently delivered on the mid-term targets
| Guidance Transition Phase 2019 – 2021 |
2019 | 2020 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23.6% | 30.4% | ||
| Growth | GMV growth of 20-25% | ||
| 3.5% | Actual: 5.3% Pro-forma: 3.8%1 |
||
| Profitability | Adj. EBIT margin between 2-4% | ||
| Cash flow negative ● NWC neutral ● |
FCF: +42m EUR NWC negative Capex: 4.7% |
FCF: +285m EUR NWC negative Capex: 3.1% |
|
| Cash | Capex of 4-5% of revenue ● |
1) Excluding positive impact from temporary Covid-19 related lower Return Rate in 2020.
For 2021, we aim to continue to grow at an accelerated pace while investing to further elevate our customer experience and to drive our platform transition
GMV growth of 27 – 32%, and Revenue growth of 24 – 29%
Adj. EBIT1of €350 – 425m
Negative net working capital and €350 – 400m in Capex2
1) Excluding equity-settled share-based payment expense ("SBC") of ~€57m, restructuring costs and non-operating one-time effects for FY/21
2) Excludes M&A transactions
Liquidity position
(in €m)
(1) "Start of Q4/20" liquidity include short-term deposits of 25€m with maturity of more than 3 and less than 12 months, which were withdrawn in Q4
(2) Includes sales and investments in fixed and intangible assets (-€127.1m), payments for acquisitions (-€31.5m) and change in restricted cash (+€0.0m)
(3) Includes financing cash flow (-€11.9m) and effect of exchange rate on cash and cash equivalents (+€3.6m)
FY/20 GMV to merchandise revenue bridge
| GMV to revenue bridge FY/20 | (in €m) | Comment | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Group GMV | 10,700 | Net1 B2C merchandise value incl. VAT |
|
| Partner Program GMV | -1,998 | 20.8% of Fashion Store GMV (incl. Connected Retail) | |
| Group GMV ex Partner Program | 8,702 | ||
| VAT (excl. Partner Program VAT) | -1,358 | ~ 16% of GMV | |
| Group NMV ex Partner Program | 7,347 | Net1 B2C merchandise value excl. VAT |
|
| Other merchandise revenue | + | e.g. B2B bulk sales revenue (offprice), dunning fees |
|
| Revenue recognition | -/+… | Point of order (GMV) vs. customer receipt (revenue) | |
| Revenue from the sale of merchandise | 7,322 | IFRS standards, Zalando annual report 2020 | |
| Partner Program commission | + | Incl. Connected Retail commissions | |
| B2B service revenue | + | Zalando Fulfillment Solutions, Zalando Marketing Services, Tradebyte and Anatwine |
|
| Other B2C revenue | + | e.g. shipping fees, express delivery charges, Zalando Plus | |
| Group revenue | 7,982 | IFRS standards, Zalando annual report 2020 |
|
1) After returns and cancellations, dynamically reported
Merchandise and service revenue – Segment view FY/20
1) Incl. dunning fees
Merchandise revenue in €m Service revenue in €m
Overview on Kinnevik's share distribution
Issued share capital
| Issued Share Capital | €255,253,304 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Number of Shares Outstanding | 255,253,304 | |||
| Index Listings | MDAX | |||
| Market Segment | Regulated Market (Prime Standard) | |||
| (AS OF DEC 31, 2020) | Stock Exchange | Frankfurt Stock Exchange | ||
| SHARE INFORMATION | Type of Shares | Ordinary bearer shares with no-par value (Stückaktien) | ||
STOCK OPTION PROGRAMS MGMT BOARD (AS OF DEC 31, 2020) STOCK OPTION PROGRAMS SENIOR MGMT (AS OF DEC 31, 2020)
| Program | # Options outstanding | Weighted average exercise price (EUR) |
|---|---|---|
| SOP 20111 | 74,800 | 5.65 |
| SOP 20131 | 6,779,835 | 1.00 |
| LTI 2018² | 5,223,983 | 47.44 |
| VSOP 2018 | 245,974 | 29.84 |
| LTI 2019 | 682,533 | 17.79 |
| Total | 13,007,125 | 21.10 |
| Program | # Options outstanding | Weighted average exercise price (EUR) |
|---|---|---|
| SOP 20141 | 806,649 | 23.12 |
| EIP1 | 3,163,195 | 36.88 |
| VSOP 2017 | 215,000 | 50.00 |
| ZOP | 914,900 | 23.84 |
| Total | 5,099,744 | 32.92 |
1) Settled with new shares
2) Only to 43% dilutive / to be settled with new shares, remaining backed by treasury shares
Zalando Investor Relations Team
Patrick Kofler Head of IR
Dorothee Schultz Junior Manager IR
Nils Pöppinghaus Senior Manager IR
Jan Edelmann Manager IR
Team Contact
T: +49 3020 9681 584 Zalando Tamara-Danz-Straße 1 10243 Berlin
[email protected] https://corporate.zalando.com/en
Disclaimer
Certain statements in this communication may constitute forward looking statements. These statements are based on assumptions that are believed to be reasonable at the time they are made, and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties.
You should not rely on these forward-looking statements as predictions of future events and we undertake no obligation to update or revise these statements.
Our actual results may differ materially and adversely from any forward-looking statements discussed on this call due to a number of factors, including without limitation, risks from macroeconomic developments, external fraud, inefficient processes at fulfillment centers, inaccurate personnel and capacity forecasts for fulfillment centers, hazardous material / conditions in production with regard to private labels, lack of innovation capabilities, inadequate data security, lack of market knowledge, risk of strike and changes in competition levels.