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Yara International ASA — Earnings Release 2020
Feb 9, 2021
3794_rns_2021-02-09_6310e016-b7cb-4a2d-aeb4-7f9373f5619b.pdf
Earnings Release
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Yara International ASA 2020 Fourth quarter results
9 February 2021

Cautionary note
This presentation contains forward-looking information and statements relating to the business, financial performance and results of Yara and/or industry and markets in which it operates. Forward-looking statements are statements that are not historical facts and may be identified by words such as "aims", "anticipates", "believes", "estimates", "expects", "foresees", "intends", "plans", "predicts", "projects", "targets", and similar expressions. Such forward-looking statements are based on current expectations, estimates and projections, reflect current views with respect to future events, and are subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance, and risks, uncertainties and other important factors could cause the actual business, financial performance, results or the industry and markets in which Yara operates to differ materially from the statements expressed or implied in this presentation by such forward-looking statements. No representation is made that any of these forward-looking statements or forecasts will come to pass or that any forecasted results will be achieved, and you are cautioned not to place any undue reliance on any forward-looking statements.


People
Our ambition is zero injuries
TRI1 (12-month rolling)


4Q highlights: 10th consecutive quarter of ROIC increase

- Improved deliveries and production offset energy cost increase
- NOK 20 per share annual dividend proposed
- Total NOK 52 per share cash returns1 paid and proposed for 2020
- Taking steps to enable the hydrogen economy, establishing Clean Ammonia unit
- 8.0% ROIC2, up from 6.6% a year earlier

1) Including NOK 18 additional dividend paid 4Q 2020 and share buybacks (included in the year of purchase, including the corresponding pro-rata redemption of shares from the Norwegian state) 2) For definition and reconciliation of ROIC, see APM section in 4Q report, page 35-40 4
USD 2.3 billion free cash flow1 rolling 4 quarters
Free cash flow before financing activities1 Comments

- Strategy execution and capital discipline driving improved earnings and cash flow
- USD 1.4 billion free cash flow1 increase last 4 quarters compared with a year earlier
- Strong deliveries in 4Q generated increase in receivables

Proposed dividend of 20 NOK per share

- The Yara Board will propose to the Annual General Meeting a 2020 dividend of NOK 20 per share
- Ongoing share buybacks and redemptions already committed in 2020 will amount to NOK ~11 per share in 2021
- Improving returns and cash flow may lead to increased payout capacity in line with capital allocation policy


Yara is taking steps to enable the hydrogen economy
- Energy distribution is the key challenge for the hydrogen economy
- Ammonia is the best suited long-distance hydrogen carrier
- Hydrogen production in existing ammonia plants can be made carbon-free, at significantly lower cost than greenfield projects
- Global ammonia shipping and distribution exists to enable the hydrogen economy and zero-carbon shipping
- Yara's ammonia position is unique, with leading positions across production, shipping and distribution
- Yara is establishing a new Clean Ammonia unit to capture growth opportunities within green hydrogen and ammonia production, transport and distribution
Ammonia is the best suited hydrogen energy carrier


Existing ammonia plants can be retrofitted, at significantly lower cost than greenfield projects

9

Utilizing existing ammonia infrastructure is the only realistic way to EU hydrogen goals

Current EU Hydrogen demand

Yara's ammonia position is unique, with leading positions across production, trade and shipping

Production
- 8.5 mt capacity across 17 units
- Proximity to major bunkering sites
- Electrolysis can replace SMR step; rest of infrastructure can be utilized
- Three green ammonia pilots, start-ups scheduled for 2023-25
Trade
- Global trader with > 20% market share
- ~3.7 mt of global export capacity with multiple downstream outlets
- Industrial solutions land logistics expertise
Shipping & storage
- +200 kt maritime transport (11 ships)
- 580 kt ammonia storage capacity
- 18 marine ammonia terminals
- Connecting green supply and demand


Yara is establishing a new Clean Ammonia unit
Effective 9 February; external financial reporting from 1Q 2021 results

- Existing pilot projects
- Potential full-scale projects (e.g. Porsgrunn)
- 2020 results:
- Revenues ~1 BUSD
- EBITDA ~125 MUSD
- Application development
Clean Ammonia unit reporting directly to CEO



World-scale project possible in Porsgrunn, with the right partners and regulation
- Full electrification of ~500 kt ammonia unit (removing ~800 kt CO2) possible with limited infrastructure investments
- Renewable power supply from Norwegian grid, leading to 100 % hydrogen asset utilization
- Deep sea coastal location, enabling global exports
- Public funding required to bridge the cost gap in first projects
- Cost of green ammonia estimated to be 2-4x higher than conventional product
- Project would eliminate one of Norway's largest stationary CO2 sources
- Would make a significant contribution to Norway reaching its Paris agreement commitments
Disruptive innovation since 1905


Our legacy is also our future



Financial performance
EBITDA ex. Special items (MUSD)

EPS ex. currency and special items (USD per share)


4Q19 4Q20 6.6 % 8.0 %
Prosperity 4Q19 4Q20
Change in net operating capital1 (MUSD)

Cash from operations (MUSD)



1) Change in net operating capital as presented in the cash flow statement, page 20 of 4Q report
Alternative performance measures are defined, explained and reconciled to the Financial statements in the APM section of the 4Q report on pages 35-40


Stable revenues as improved deliveries offset lower commodity prices

1) Total revenues for segments Europe, Americas and Africa & Asia (page 24, 27-28 4Q report). Grey area represents nutrient content valued at Urea Granular FOB Egypt, DAP FOB Morocco and MOP FOB Vancouver equivalents.
2) Nitrate revenues for segments Europe, Americas and Africa & Asia. Grey area represents the nutrient content valued at Urea Granular FOB Egypt equivalents 3) Compond NPK revenues for segments Europe, Americas and Africa & Asia. Grey area represents the nutrient content valued at Urea Granular FOB Egypt, DAP FOB Morocco and MOP FOB Vancouver equivalents.
Strong premium product growth



Stable earnings as improved deliveries offset energy cost increase and cost phasing

- 1) EBITDA ex. special items. For definition and reconciliation see APM section of 4Q report, page 35
- 2) Quarterly ROIC, annualized. For definition and reconciliation see APM section of 4Q report, page 36-37
Strong quarter in Africa and Asia, premium product growth in all regions
| Europe | Americas | Africa and Asia | Industrial Solutions | Global Plants | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA ex. special | EBITDA ex. special | EBITDA ex. special | EBITDA ex. special | EBITDA ex. special | |
| items (MUSD)1 | items (MUSD)1 | items (MUSD)1 | items (MUSD)1 | items (MUSD)1 | |
| 106 | 143 | 51 | 84 | 142 | |
| 105 | 115 | 18 | 73 | 120 | |
| 4Q19 | 4Q19 | 4Q19 | 4Q19 | 4Q19 | |
| 4Q20 | 4Q20 | 4Q20 | 4Q20 | 4Q20 | |
| • • |
Higher deliveries offset temporary pressure on premiums Positive impact from lower feedstock costs |
• Weaker margins, partially offset by higher premium deliveries |
• Volume/mix improvements and higher production margins • Production volume increase from better reliability |
• Stable earnings despite challenging market • Positive trend except Maritime • 10 MUSD positive effect mainly from |
• Lower commodity margins for European integrated nitrogen production • Higher gas prices not fully compensated by increased urea prices |
and ramp-up of TAN production
revision of cost estimates on projects • Qafco divestment effect -16 MUSD
Positive improvement program trend


1) For reconciliation of Fixed costs to Operating costs and expenses, see APM section of 4Q report, page 38
2) Operating capital adjusted for prepayments from customers. For reconciliation of Operating capital days, see APM section of 4Q report, page 39
Unchanged total capex for 2020/21, phasing into 2021 as previously communicated


Solid cash earnings more than fund investments; strong cash distribution in line with capital allocation policy


1) Operating income plus depreciation and amortization, minus tax paid, net gain/(loss) on disposals, net interest expense and bank charges
2) Other includes new leases, foreign currency translation gain/loss, and dividends from EAI = Equity Accounted Investees
3) For definition and reconciliation see APM section of 4Q report, page 40
Full year condensed profit and loss statement
USD million, except stated
| 2020 | 2019 | Variance | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue and other income | 11,728 | 12,936 | -1,208 |
| Raw materials, energy costs and freight expenses | -8,021 | -9,334 | 1,313 |
| Payroll and related costs | -1,136 | -1,180 | 44 |
| Depreciation and amortization | -919 | -922 | 3 |
| Impairment loss | -46 | -43 | -3 |
| Other operating expenses | -431 | -467 | 36 |
| Operating costs and expenses | -10,551 | -11,946 | 1,395 |
| Operating income | 1,176 | 989 | 187 |
| Share of net income in equity-accounted investees | 20 | 65 | -45 |
| Interest income and other financial income | 62 | 76 | -14 |
| Foreign currency translation gain/(loss) | -243 | -145 | -98 |
| Interest expense and other financial items | -165 | -182 | 17 |
| Income before tax | 850 | 803 | 47 |
| Income tax | -160 | -214 | 54 |
| Net income | 690 | 589 | 101 |
| Basic earnings per share | 2.58 | 2.20 | 0.38 |
| Weighted average number of shares outstanding | 267,985,860 | 272,319,232 | -4,333,372 |
Comments
- Lower revenues reflect lower market prices
- Operating income increase due to lower gas prices, increased premium products deliveries and a stronger US dollar
- Foreign currency translation loss reflects loss on the US dollar denominated debt positions and internal positions in other currencies than USD
- Interest expense decrease driven mainly by lower interest-bearing debt

Condensed balance sheet
USD million
| Assets | 2020 | 2019 |
|---|---|---|
| Total non-current assets | 10,969 | 11,940 |
| Total current assets | 5,637 | 4,785 |
| Total assets | 16,605 | 16,725 |
| Equity and liabilities | ||
| Total equity | 8,220 | 8,909 |
| Total non-current liabilities | 5,220 | 4,499 |
| Total current liabilities | 3,165 | 3,317 |
| Total equity and liabilities | 16,605 | 16,725 |
Comments
- Change in cash position mainly due to divestment proceeds, payment of dividends and share buybacks
- Non-current-liabilities increased due to new 750 MUSD bond issued in 2Q 2020


Planet
Yara is committed to food system transformation

• Yara recognized among 12 top performers in the World Benchmarking Alliance Food & Agriculture Baseline Assessment in December, a study covering the 350 most influential food and agriculture companies
World Benchmarking Alliance Sustainalytics2 ESG risk rating update

- Improved risk rating from Sustainalytics (25 – Medium risk), down from 31 in 2019
- Yara ranked top 1 of 55 in Agricultural Chemicals and top 10% in Chemicals
2) Copyright ©2020 Sustainalytics. All rights reserved. This section contains information developed by Sustainalytics (www.sustainalytics.com). Such information and data are proprietary of Sustainalytics and/or its third party suppliers (Third Party Data) and are provided for informational purposes only. They do not constitute an endorsement of any product or project, nor an investment advice and are not warranted to be complete, timely, accurate or suitable for a particular purpose. Their use is subject to conditions available athttps://www.sustainalytics.com/legal-disclaimers


Our employees are key to delivering results in a demanding environment
KEY INITIATIVES 2020
Income security
• Introduced global paid sick leave and guaranteed three months' pay in the event of temporary layoffs during Covid-19 for all Yara employees and full-time contractors
Mental health
- Employees in all locations have access to counselling
- Training for managers on managing fatigue and stress in their teams
An inclusive workplace
- Global parental leave standard at six months pay for primary carer and one month's pay for secondary carer
- Flexible working, updated travel policy
- Family caregiver leave
Rewarding extraordinary efforts during the pandemic
• USD 1,000 bonus paid to all employees globally
28
Attractive Yara prospects

- Resource and environment challenges require strong agri productivity improvement
- Attractive Yara growth opportunities within sustainable food solutions and green ammonia
- Improving market fundamentals

- Crop nutrition leader; #1 premium product and market presence
- Transitioning towards sustainable solutions for the global food system
- Operational improvement and innovation focus

Attractive opportunities Focused strategy Strong shareholder returns
- Strict capital discipline with clear capital allocation policy
- Ten consecutive quarters of ROIC growth, with USD 2.3 billion free cash flow1 from operations last 4 quarters

Additional information
30
Europe: higher deliveries and revenues

- 4Q deliveries 15% up driven by a firming global nitrogen market and improved own production
- Increase driven by urea, nitrates and NPK
- Volume increase offset by lower margins, as higher nitrogen prices are not yet realized due to normal order book time lag
- Positive impact from lower feedstock costs
- L12M ROIC lower compared with a year earlier
- ~60% improvement in cash flow from operations versus last year

Americas: revenues and earnings impacted by lower market prices

- 4Q deliveries up 2%, driven by higher premium fertilizer deliveries (+16%)
- Realized prices down, driven by lower commodity prices and commercial margins
- Lower margins impacted EBITDA
- Margin reduction partially offset by improved premium product deliveries
- NOPAT up 9% versus 2019
- Stable EBITDA, but lower depreciation in USD terms
- Invested capital down 13%, driven partly by improved working capital performance and BRL depreciation.

Africa & Asia: Strong results driven by increased deliveries

- Stronger deliveries and realized price increases vs. last year
- Volumes up within both premium and commodities
- Strong improvement driven by volume and mix improvements, and higher production margins
- Higher production volumes reflect Pilbara ammonia stop in 2019 and ramp-up of TAN production
• Improvement driven by higher operating results and lower working capital

Global Plants: Lower results reflect reduced margins and Qafco divestment

- Strong finished fertilizer production improvement in Porsgrunn
- Lower ammonia production due to higher turnaround activity
- Lower commodity margins for European integrated nitrogen production
- Higher gas prices not yet fully compensated by increased urea prices
- Qafco divestment effect -16 MUSD
• Improvement mainly reflects positive impact from special items
Industrial Solutions: stable earnings in challenging market


Key product price developments


1) Source: BOABC, CFMW, Fertilizer publications, Argus. 1-month lag applied, as proxy for realized prices (delivery assumed 1 month after order)
2) Yara's realized European nitrate price, CAN 27 CIF Germany equivalent ex. Sulphur
3) Yara's realized global compound NPK price (average grade)
Short-term impact on premiums from increasing commodity nitrogen prices

1 Upgrading margin from gas to nitrates in 46% N (USD/t): All prices in urea equivalents, with 1 month time lag

2 Export NPK plants, average grade 19-10-13, net of transport and handling cost.

Strong deliveries in Europe and Asia; premium product growth in all regions


Energy cost



*Dotted lines denote forward prices as of 2 February 2021, market prices (HH and TTF) are not lagged
**Yara Global restated from 2Q 2018 to include Cubatão gas cost
Yara stocks
Finished fertilizer
Mill. tonnes


European producers' nitrate stocks


Higher nitrogen supply growth forecast in 2021, however higher than normal risk of project delays


Alternative performance measures
Alternative performance measures are defined, explained and reconciled to the Financial statements in the APM section of the Quarterly report on pages 35-40

