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WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED — AGM Information 2019
Oct 16, 2019
66059_rns_2019-10-16_b40ff510-2d81-4359-9124-62fbc1991ef5.pdf
AGM Information
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17 October 2019
The Manager, Listings Australian Securities Exchange Company Announcements Office
Via ASX Online
Dear Sir,
Annual General Meeting – Chairman’s Address and Managing Director’s Presentation
We attach copies of the Chairman’s Address and Managing Director’s Presentation which will be delivered at the Company’s Annual General Meeting being held at 10:00am today.
Yours faithfully
Timothy Burt General Counsel & Company Secretary
Whitehaven Coal Limited ABN 68 124 425 396
Level 28, 259 George Street, Sydney NSW 2000 | P 02 8222 1100 | F 02 8222 1101 PO Box R1113, Royal Exchange NSW 1225
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WHITEHAVEN COAL AGM 2019
17 October 2019
Chairman’s Address
Fellow shareholders, Ladies and Gentlemen
Can I take this opportunity to formally welcome you to the Whitehaven Coal Annual General Meeting for the financial year ending 2019.
I would also like to formally acknowledge the Gadigal people of the Eora nation, the traditional custodians of this land, and pay my respects to the elders past, present and emerging. Can I also extend our sincere thanks to Uncle Chicka Madden for his very warm and generous introduction.
It has been another busy year for Whitehaven as we worked towards our vision of becoming the benchmark coal investment on the ASX and further sharpened our focus on the seven key areas underpinning our growth strategy, specifically:
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Disciplined growth and capital management
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Nurturing our pipeline of human talent
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Accessing latent capacity within our operations
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Matching premium products to premium export markets
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Diversifying our product range
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Innovating; and
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Keeping an eye on structural shifts in our market and opportunities that might arise from these
Our performance in the last financial year was pleasing, particularly given some of the headwinds we have had to contend with.
We produced a record 23.2 million tonnes of ROM coal on a managed basis – an outcome accomplished with an improved annual TRIFR of 6.2, demonstrating the Company’s commitment to ensuring the relationship over time between production and safety should be inversely proportional.
I want to reiterate our core belief that safety is a cornerstone aspect of our business and that each and every one of our people should expect to come home safely to their loved ones at the end of each day. I am especially concerned to ensure safety remains front and centre at all our operations and that, as a company, we commit to working closely and collaboratively with the NSW Resources Regulator as it carries out the critical task of making the NSW mining industry the envy of every other jurisdiction when it comes to mine safety.
Ladies and gentlemen, the end of the last financial year marked the conclusion of mining at Rocglen, and the last coal was also recently mined at Sunnyside.
The end of mining at these smaller operations and ramp ups at larger operations is very much reflective of how the business is evolving into a larger, more efficient and better-integrated enterprise – a transformation those of you who have joined us for the journey over the past few years, would be familiar with.
We delivered a record net profit after tax before significant items of $564.9 million, which facilitated an unprecedented distribution to shareholders and a full-year payout ratio of 88% of NPAT.
With just shy of $465 million paid to shareholders in FY 19, the Company has delivered on its commitment to pay out at least 20 to 50% of NPAT as dividends, and will continue to do so through its next stage of growth.
I would like to acknowledge the work of Managing Director and CEO Paul Flynn, the executive leadership team and the entire 2,400-strong workforce in achieving this result. Successful companies are made up of successful people with the
Whitehaven Coal Limited ABN 68 124 425 396
Level 28, 259 George Street, Sydney NSW 2000 | 02 8222 1100 | [email protected] | www.whitehavencoal.com.au
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right attitude and, while culture is a continuing journey, I am confident we can rise to meet the challenges presented by our growth agenda.
In this context, the Company has put its strong balance sheet to work and will continue to do so by investing in technology and expansion initiatives at existing operations and progressing key development projects, which I’ll return to later and I know Paul will cover in detail shortly.
And of course the coal we produce will continue to service our premium markets of Japan, Korea and Taiwan but, increasingly, we will look to take advantage of the substantial growth in coal-fired power generation in Southeast Asia.
The International Energy Agency predicts these markets will grow from 71GW in 2017 to 175GW in 2040, requiring at least 220 million tonnes of coal each year by 2040 - more than Australia’s total thermal coal exports in 2018 of 208 million tonnes.
Whitehaven’s future growth and value proposition are underpinned by two significant, high-quality, near-term assets: the Vickery and Winchester South projects. Together, they will significantly increase the metallurgical coal exposure in our portfolio and take our saleable coal production towards 40Mtpa over the next ten or so years.
Indeed, it is worth pausing to reflect on the market opportunities in India, which this year accounted for 40% of our total metallurgical coal sales. Australia supplies more than 70% of India’s metallurgical coal, and according to the Commonwealth Office of the Chief Economist, demand for this coal could increase by one-third between 2015 and 2035 as India’s economy develops.
Whitehaven is positively differentiated from a number of our key competitors, increasing our total production at a time of ongoing tightness in the higher energy-content coal market and given the relative scarcity of metallurgical coal globally.
Regulatory barriers and a more uncertain investment environment will continue to impact supply, with associated impacts on price. And we are well-positioned to continue to take advantage of these dynamics. This topic is covered in Whitehaven’s inaugural Sustainability Report released in September, which covers business resilience and how we see our company successfully charting a path into a more carbon-constrained future.
Given the ongoing debate about the role coal will continue to play globally, particularly in power generation, we communicate regularly with domestic and international investors on the full spectrum of environmental, sustainability and governance issues.
This includes discussion on voluntary compliance regimes, such as the Financial Stability Board’s Task Force on Climaterelated Financial Disclosures, which Whitehaven reported against for the first time in our inaugural Sustainability Report.
What that analysis demonstrated is our businesses remains resilient out until 2040 under all three of the most commonly referenced energy outlook scenarios advanced by the International Energy Agency. We have received very positive feedback from a number of beneficial owners and other investors in relation to our TCFD reporting and climate change disclosures and it is an area both the Board and Management will continue to work on closely through the Company’s Sustainability Working Group.
More generally, I would like to take this opportunity to emphasise that for Whitehaven, sustainability is fundamentally about long-term contribution across the entire value chain, and as outlined in the report, it starts with our local presence. We support and sustain the communities around which our operations are based through permanent job creation, responsible environmental management, and by focusing resources on the areas where we know we can have a positive impact.
For our growing workforce, this means providing rewarding careers and placing great importance on safety as our business grows. And for our customer relationships, it means generating a reliable supply of high-quality products that support the use of industrial assets, such as high-efficiency, low-emissions, coal-fired power plants helping to power economic and social development in countries across Asia. The inaugural Sustainability Report sets a strong benchmark to transparently measure progress as the Company delivers positive outcomes to its stakeholders at home and abroad – and I commend the team on developing such as comprehensive resource.
As with any year, this one has not been without its challenges, including at times in relation to safety, production, labour and the external pricing environment. At a Board level, as you would expect, we have focused on providing appropriate oversight and guidance to ensure successful management of these challenges.
In this context I would like to make some remarks on the continuing drought in North West New South Wales. I am only too aware of the fact this is truly a land of droughts and flooding rains, but the drought conditions we have observed across much of NSW have been especially challenging and are arguably the worst since the Federation Drought at the turn of the last century. Our thoughts are with all those who are doing it tough as result of drought.
The CEO will make some additional remarks on this topic in his address.
www.whitehavencoal.com.au
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Finally to governance, and I am pleased that earlier this year, we welcomed Lindsay Ward to the Board. Lindsay is a highly credentialed Director and senior executive with a wealth of experience across a range of sectors where Whitehaven’s strategic interests converge, including mining, exploration, mineral processing, ports management, rail haulage, power generation, gas transmission, transport and logistics. As the Company transitions to a larger, crossjurisdictional enterprise of increasing scale and complexity, Lindsay’s diverse skill set represents a strong fit into the future.
Reflecting on another record-breaking year, I would like to thank my fellow Directors, senior management, and the entire workforce for their significant efforts – and to our joint venture partners, banking syndicate and you and our many other shareholders for your ongoing support.
While our sector is unquestionably complex, our long-term outlook on the market remains extremely positive. I am confident we have the strategies and talent we need to deliver further value for our shareholders, and our stakeholders more broadly, in this financial year and moving forward.
www.whitehavencoal.com.au
17 October 2019
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Disclosure
STATEMENTS CONTAINED IN THIS MATERIAL, PARTICULARLY THOSE REGARDING THE POSSIBLE OR ASSUMED FUTURE PERFORMANCE, COSTS, DIVIDENDS, RETURNS, PRODUCTION LEVELS OR RATES, PRICES, RESERVES, POTENTIAL GROWTH OF WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED, INDUSTRY GROWTH OR OTHER TREND PROJECTIONS AND ANY ESTIMATED COMPANY EARNINGS ARE OR MAY BE FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS. SUCH STATEMENTS RELATE TO FUTURE EVENTS AND EXPECTATIONS AND AS SUCH INVOLVE KNOWN AND UNKNOWN RISKS AND UNCERTAINTIES. ACTUAL RESULTS, ACTIONS AND DEVELOPMENTS MAY DIFFER MATERIALLY FROM THOSE EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED BY THESE FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS DEPENDING ON A VARIETY OF FACTORS.
THE PRESENTATION OF CERTAIN FINANCIAL INFORMATION MAY NOT BE COMPLIANT WITH FINANCIAL CAPTIONS IN THE PRIMARY FINANCIAL STATEMENTS PREPARED UNDER IFRS. HOWEVER, THE COMPANY CONSIDERS THAT THE PRESENTATION OF SUCH INFORMATION IS APPROPRIATE TO INVESTORS AND NOT MISLEADING AS IT IS ABLE TO BE RECONCILED TO THE FINANCIAL ACCOUNTS WHICH ARE COMPLIANT WITH IFRS REQUIREMENTS.
ALL DOLLARS IN THE PRESENTATION ARE AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED.
COMPETENT PERSONS STATEMENT
INFORMATION IN THIS REPORT THAT RELATES TO COAL RESOURCES AND COAL RESERVES IS BASED ON AND ACCURATELY REFLECTS REPORTS PREPARED BY THE COMPETENT PERSON NAMED BESIDE THE RESPECTIVE INFORMATION. GREG JONES IS A PRINCIPAL CONSULTANT WITH JB MINING SERVICES. MAL BLAIK IS A SENIOR CONSULTANT WITH JB MINING SERVICES. PHILLIP SIDES IS A SENIOR CONSULTANT WITH JB MINING SERVICES. BENJAMIN THOMPSON IS A GEOLOGIST WITH WHITEHAVEN COAL. MARK BENSON IS A GEOLOGIST WITH WHITEHAVEN COAL. DOUG SILLAR IS A FULL TIME EMPLOYEE OF RPM ADVISORY SERVICES PTY LTD. MICHAEL BARKER IS A FULL TIME EMPLOYEE OF PALARIS LTD. TROY TURNER IS THE MANAGING DIRECTOR WITH ZENITH CONSULTING PTY LTD.
NAMED COMPETENT PERSONS CONSENT TO THE INCLUSION OF MATERIAL IN THE FORM AND CONTEXT IN WHICH IT APPEARS. ALL COMPETENT PERSONS NAMED ARE MEMBERS OF THE AUSTRALASIAN INSTITUTE OF MINING AND METALLURGY AND/OR THE AUSTRALIAN INSTITUTE OF GEOSCIENTISTS AND HAVE THE RELEVANT EXPERIENCE IN RELATION TO THE MINERALISATION BEING REPORTED ON BY THEM TO QUALIFY AS COMPETENT PERSONS AS DEFINED IN THE AUSTRALIAN CODE FOR REPORTING OF EXPLORATION RESULTS, MINERAL RESOURCES AND ORE RESERVES (THE JORC CODE, 2012 EDITION).
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
ANY REFERENCES TO RESERVE AND RESOURCE ESTIMATES SHOULD BE READ IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE WHITEHAVEN’S ORE RESERVES AND COAL RESOURCES STATEMENT FOR ITS COAL PROJECTS AT 31 MARCH 2019 AS RELEASED TO THE AUSTRALIAN SECURITIES EXCHANGE ON15 AUGUST 2019. WHITEHAVEN CONFIRMS IN SUBSEQUENT PUBLIC REPORTS THAT IT IS NOT AWARE OF ANY NEW INFORMATION OR DATA THAT MATERIALLY EFFECTS THE INFORMATION INCLUDED IN THE RELEVANT MARKET ANNOUNCEMENT AND IN THE CASE OF ESTIMATES OF COAL RESOURCES OR ORE RESERVES, THAT ALL MATERIAL ASSUMPTIONS AND TECHNICAL PARAMETERS UNDERPINNING THE ESTIMATES IN THE RELEVANT MARKET ANNOUNCEMENT CONTINUE TO APPLY AND HAVE NOT MATERIALLY CHANGED.
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2
Contents
Highlights Financial Performance Operations Growth Sustainability Outlook for Coal Use Outlook for Whitehaven Appendices
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FY2019 Highlights Record EBITDA, NPAT, Dividends and ROM coal production
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TRIFR of 6.16 at 30 Record equity Equity sales June, 11% below the ROM coal including previous year and production purchased coal below the NSW of 18.4Mt, of 17.6Mt, average up 4% YOY up 2% YOY
Record Underlying Record returns to EBITDA and NPAT shareholders with a before significant final dividend of 30 items of $1,041.7m cents taking full and $564.9m year dividends respectively to 50cps
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4
Safety performance
Improvement continuing
Safety (TRIFR) and Production (ROM Mt)
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25
20
15
10
5
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Safety as measured by the TRIFR continued to improve over the year
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Whitehaven recorded a TRIFR of 6.16 at the end of the year compared to 6.91 at the end of the previous year
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Safety is always a key focus for the business, and following the recent series of incidents in the Queensland coal industry, a renewed effort will be taken to improve outcomes
0 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 ROM Production TRIFR
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5
Financial performance
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Financial highlights
Record profit; record dividends; strong balance sheet
| Profit and Loss | FY2019 | FY2018* | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net profit after tax before significant items ($m) 564.9 524.5 Increase of 8% |
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| Underlying EBITDA ($m) 1,041.7 1,011.9 Increase of 3% |
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| Net Profit ($m) 527.9 524.5 |
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| Earnings per share (cps) 53.5 53.1 |
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| Cash generated from operations ($m) 964.1 925.9 Strong conversion to cash |
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| Dividends (cps) 50 40 Record full year declared dividend |
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| Unit cost per tonne ($/t) 67 58 Next slide for cost commentary |
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| Balance Sheet | 30 June 2019 | 30 June 2018* | Comment |
| Cash on hand ($m) 119.5 111.8 Strong cash position |
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| Total loans and borrowings ($m) 415.3 588.1 Includes IFRS 16 lease liabilities |
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| Net debt ($m) 161.6 270.4 Excludes IFRS 16 lease liabilities |
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| Gearing (%) 4% 7% Modest gearing |
- The comparative period has been restated for the adoption of IFRS 16 Leases
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7
Margins and costs
Margins increased due to higher realised premiums on thermal coal
| FY2019 | FY2018 | • • $A/t |
|
|---|---|---|---|
| Coal Sales (equity basis, excluding purchased coal) Mt 15.6 16.0 |
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| Average revenue (excluding purchased coal & net of royalties) $A/t 133 121 |
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| Average cost of sales $A/t 67 58* |
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| EBITDA Margin on coal sales $A/t 66 63 |
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| EBITDA Margin on coal sales % 50% 52% |
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The comparative period cost per tonne has been restated for the adoption of IFRS 16 Leases .
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Note: Total coal sales of 15.6Mt exclude 0.4Mt of Sunnyside coal sales in FY2019 and 0.1Mt in FY2018
Realised thermal and metallurgical coal prices averaged US$100/t and US$119/t respectively in FY2019 compared to US$98/t and US$119/t in FY2018
The weaker Australian dollar versus the US dollar in FY2019, 0.72 compared to 0.78 in FY2018 led to the higher average Australian dollar revenue for FY2019
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Maules 3 product strategy
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Narrabri increasing • Higher oil prices depth of cover • Higher contractor
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• Increased haulage prices at Maules
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Gunnedah open • Increased haulage cut haulage & at Maules processing • Tarrawonga high strip ratio
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Unutilised port capacity
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Free cash flow
Majority of free cash flow returned to shareholders
FY2019 net cash from operating activities $916m
Dividends Investing Debt Retirement Lease payments Other $496m $194m $127m $93m $6m
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Total FY2019 declared dividends of 50cps
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Includes $47m sustaining • Senior debt and ECA net capex and $31m for repayments Narrabri mains
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Primarily fleet equipment
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Includes $32m for growth
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Includes $80m final payment for Winchester South
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9
Operations
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Coal production and sales Stable production & sales before next growth phase
Whitehaven Managed ROM Coal Production (Mt)
Whitehaven Managed Coal Sales (Mt)
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25.0
23.1 22.9 23.2
20.5
20.0
9.7
15.8 11.0 11.7
7.8
15.0
2.6
10.0 7.3
7.7 6.9
6.3
6.4
5.0
5.5 5.8 6.1 5.7 5.1
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FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019
Open Cuts Narrabri Maules Creek
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25.0
22.1 21.6
20.7
20.1 1.3
0.4 1.6
20.0 0.1
7.4
8.9 9.6
15.0 14.0 9.3
1.8
10.0
7.1 7.5
6.8 5.8 5.7
5.0
5.1 5.1 4.6 5.3 5.0
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FY 2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY 2018 FY2019
Open Cuts Narrabri Maules Creek Purchased Coal
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Sales to premium markets Most sales to premium markets in Asia
Thermal Coal Sales FY2019
Metallurgical Coal Sales FY2019
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5%
7%
5%
Japan
Korea 8% India
Taiwan Korea
12%
Malaysia Japan
40%
Indonesia 11% Vietnam
Other SE Asia
59% China
New Caledonia
Other
India
14% Taiwan
Other
13% 16%
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Managed coal sales including purchased coal were 21.6Mt for the year (17.5Mt thermal and 4.1Mt metallurgical)
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85% of thermal coal sales were to the premium markets in Asia
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Sales into the growth markets of south east Asia continued to grow and reached 10% of total sales for the year
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12
Maules Creek
Planning for autonomous haulage and expansion
Maules Creek Managed ROM Coal Production (Mt)
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14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0 11.7
11.0
9.7
4.0 7.8
2.0
2.6
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FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019
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Record ROM coal production of 11.7Mt as the mine continued to ramp up to its approved production rate of 13Mtpa ROM coal
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Revised marketing strategy leading to more coal washing and an improved margin and pricing outcome
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In-pit dumping to commence in H2 FY2020
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Work commenced on the MC16 project which is aimed at increasing production to 16Mtpa ROM coal
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Autonomous haulage system trial began during FY2019, with the first fleet of haulage trucks scheduled to start operation early Q3 FY2020
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Narrabri
One of the most productive underground mines in Australia
Narrabri Managed ROM Coal Production (Mt)
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9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
7.7
7.3
6.9
6.3 6.4
3.0
2.0
1.0
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FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019
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A strong final quarter lifted ROM coal production to 6.4Mt, above the revised guidance range for the year
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New higher capacity hydraulic cylinders to be installed at the next longwall change in November/December 2019 which will assist in preventing cyclic weighting events
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Preliminary documents were lodged for the Stage 3 project in February beginning the process for the project approval
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Successful conversion of the Narrabri south exploration licence will extend mine life out to 2045 and should lead to higher annual production from the southern panels
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Gunnedah open cuts
Equipment for Tarrawonga expansion arriving at the mine
Gunnedah Open Cuts ROM Coal Production (Mt)
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7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0 6.1
5.8 5.7
5.5
5.1
2.0
1.0
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FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019
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ROM coal production for the Gunnedah Open Cuts including Sunnyside was 5.1Mt for the year
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Both Rocglen and Sunnyside are fully in rehabilitation phase
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Lower production was due to Rocglen coming to a close and planned lower production from Werris Creek
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The Board approved an expansion at Tarrawonga to increase production to 3.0Mtpa ROM coal in H2 FY2020, offsetting most of the decline in saleable coal from Rocglen and Sunnyside
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15
Drought and water security update
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Taking steps to support water security as drought conditions persist in North West NSW
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Water supply at Narrabri Underground and Gunnedah open cuts considered low risk
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Primary water source for Maules Creek is a high security water licence drawing upon the Namoi River - severely impacted by drought
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We have acquired additional long-term groundwater sources for Maules Creek
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Access to some of these sources completed; work to access remaining sources continues
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Proceeding through applicable processes with relevant NSW authorities to secure this access
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No interruption currently expected to usual operations due to water supply issues. FY2020 guidance confirmed
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However, monitoring situation closely. Maules Creek production could be impacted in the future if unanticipated delays arise in the context of those processes
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Whitehaven will have a clearer picture in the coming months as to whether there are likely to be any delays, and any resulting impact to production at the mine
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Working collaboratively with NSW authorities and all stakeholders to mitigate drought impacts
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Growth
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Portfolio overview
Whitehaven operates a growing business of long life mines
| Assets | Approved Production |
LOM | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maules Creek 13Mtpa ROM >35 years Mine ramping up to the approved level. Preparatory work underway for 16Mtpa modification request |
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| Narrabri 11Mtpa ROM >25 years Work on the Stage 3 project well advanced with the EIS expected to be lodged in H1 CY2020 |
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| Tarrawonga 3.0Mtpa ROM ~10 years Equipment for the expansion has begun arriving at the mine. Expect production to reach an annualised rate of 3.0Mt ROM in H2 FY2020 |
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| Werris Creek 2.5Mtpa ROM ~6 years ROM production downsized to a sustainable level of ~1.7Mt per annum for the balance of the mine life |
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| Vickery Project Seeking 10Mtpa ROM >20 years Project entering the final stages of the approval process with the NSW Government / IPC |
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| Winchester South Project Seeking ~ 15Mtpa ROM >25 years EIS work underway, recent large core quality drilling results being analysed and will be incorporated into the reserve |
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18
Vickery economics
Whitehaven’s next mine
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Evaluation of JV formation to progress once draft approval conditions issued by the Government are known (likely Q4 CY2019), targeting users of thermal and metallurgical coal
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Whitehaven will consider developing the project on a 100% basis in order to capture significant blending benefits across its portfolio of mines
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Early coal can be trucked to the Gunnedah CHPP for loading onto trains
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Project capex is estimated to be similar to Maules Creek ~ $700m
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Indicative life of mine FOB unit costs are in the mid $70’s before royalties
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The potential for the introduction of AHS capability at the mine, likely to be implemented post box cut mining (year 3) will significantly enhance the economics of the project by reducing life of mine operating costs by ~$4/t
Fast facts
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$700m 2022 Project capex first coal railed estimation*
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- Excluding fleet
19
Vickery Project status update
Working through the approval process
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•
EIS Lodgement (including Flood Assessment) Response to Submissions submitted in August 2019
•
DPIE Whole of Government review issued Q4 CY2019
Comments from public, agencies and councils
•
IPC forms new Panel Q4 CY2019
DPIE Peer Review
•
IPC second public hearing Q4 CY2019
•
DPIE Preliminary Issues Report IPC issues Determination Q1 CY2020
•
Management Plans submitted and approved Q4 CY2020
IPC Issues Report
•
Commence construction Q4 CY2020
Responses to Submissions •
First saleable coal Q1 CY2021
•
DPIE Assessment Report We are here Initial coal trucked to Gunnedah CHPP
•
First coal railed from site 2022
IPC Considers DPIE Report
IPC Convened Public Hearing
IPC Approval
Submissions on EIS
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Note: DPIE = Department of Planning, Industry and Environment. IPC = Independent Planning Commission. The dates for the whole of Government and IPC approval are projected not fixed. They are based on best available understanding of the process but Whitehaven is not in control of the process
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Winchester South – a strategic project Strategic coking coal exposure in the heart of Queensland’s Bowen Basin
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Well located and close to Peak Downs, Poitrel, Daunia and Eagle Downs
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Queensland Government strongly supports the project
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Preliminary Capex estimate of ~$800 million , excluding mining fleet
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Strategic size and location provide optionality
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Goonyella rail system crosses the tenement
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530Mt JORC Resources
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Potential mine statistics
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Open cut mine with a mine life of 20-30 years
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Strip ratio 5:1 LOM average
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ROM coal production: Scoped to 15Mtpa mining both Rangal and Fort Cooper coal measures
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Product coal production: Scoped to 8Mtpa
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21
Winchester South Project status update Working through the approval process with a co-operative QLD Government
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Coordinated Project Declaration
EA and ML Applications
EIS Terms of Reference Published
Draft EIS preparation We are here
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20+ years of historical project work has been reassessed
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Large diameter coal quality drilling program completed with coal processing studies underway
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Project focus on infrastructure design and refinement, EIS Assessment studies, and agreements for water, power, port and rail
EIS Assessment – Coordinator General
- Inaugural JORC Coal Reserve estimate by year end
Coordinator General Approval
EA and ML Approval Process
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22
Sustainability
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Contribution to our stakeholders
Whitehaven FY2019
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$464.9 million
returned to shareholders
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21.6Mt
of high-quality coal exported to customer countries
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$333.9 million
75%
of 2,400-strong workforce based in regional areas
spent with local suppliers
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$515,000
9%
of workforce in community identifies as partnerships Indigenous and donations
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$323.8 million
contributed to federal, state and local governments in taxes and royalties
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$1.83 million
spent with 18 Indigenous businesses
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Whitehaven is viewed positively in the region where we operate
Whitehaven’s reputation in the Gunnedah, Narrabri, Tamworth and Liverpool Plains local government areas has improved over the last few years
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95% 94% 95% Awareness of WHC
Very positive
15% 13% 17%
Somewhat positive
26% 29% 27% Neutral
+2% +14% +16% Somewhat negative
20% Very negative
30% 28%
NET sentiment
(positive minus negative)
19%
14% 15%
20%
14% 13%
Oct 2015 Mar 2017 Nov 2018
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Source: Independent quantitative research conducted by Newgate Research
Base: All 2018 participants (n=600), Tamworth (n=150), Gunnedah (n=150), Narrabri (n=150), Liverpool Plains (n=150). 2017 (n=600). 2015 (n=600)
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Responsible environmental management
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Air quality
Air quality 20,000 management hectares of through monitoring land-based and dust biodiversity suppressants offsets[1]
37,000 hectares leased for agriculture[1]
Real-time monitoring to manage noise, air quality and blast vibration
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1 compared to 3,560 hectares of land involved in mining activities as at July 2019
26
Business resilience and climate change Committed to understanding & reporting climate related risk
-
Whitehaven reports against the voluntary framework recommended by the Financial Stability Board’s Task Force on ClimateRelated Financial Disclosures (TCFD)
-
Alongside reporting on governance and risk mitigation, the central component of the TCFD’s recommendations is for companies to:
-
Understand the impact of changes to the operating environment under potential lower-carbon scenarios
-
Determine their financial and operating ‘resilience’ under these potential lower-carbon scenarios
-
Ensure the monitoring of relevant metrics and indicators over time to determine the most likely eventuating carbon scenario over time
Current Policies Scenario expected warming of 6°C by 2100
-
Based on existing laws and regulations as of mid-2018
-
Excludes aspirational emissions reduction targets declared globally
New Policies Scenario expected warming of 4°C by 2100
-
The central scenario - includes policies and targets announced by governments
-
Takes continued evolution of known technologies into account
Sustainable Development Scenario limiting warming to 2°C by 2100
-
Provides an integrated strategy to achieve the key energy-related elements of the UN Sustainable Development agenda
-
Aligned with the Paris Agreement goal of holding the increase in global average temperatures to ‘well below 2°C’
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Source: International Energy Agency (2018), World Energy Outlook 2018, OECD/IEA, Paris
27
Our analysis indicates our business is resilient Stress-testing our portfolio against the IEA scenarios
Scenario testing
- Is there a sufficient market demand to sell our products given their quality characteristics?
Analysis outcomes
-
Based on fundamental market analysis, the future of the Australian coal sector is expected to remain robust over the long term (particularly for high-quality coal producers such as Whitehaven)
-
Our climate scenario analysis indicates long-term resilience and value generation in a range of de-carbonising scenarios (including a 2°C scenario)
-
Can our product be marketed and sold at a price that generates a positive cash flow for our business?
-
Even under a Sustainable Development scenario, all of our mines and projects will continue to have positive valuations and will have economic lives consistent with current plans
The risk of our assets being stranded in a carbon-constrained world is considered to be low
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Outlook for coal use
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Coal significant in energy mix
IEA projects coal to retain position as largest source of electricity in 2040
World Primary Energy Demand NPS (Mtoe)
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18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
-
2017 2025 2040
Coal Oil Natural Gas
Nuclear Renewables Solid Biomas
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World Share of Electricity Generation 2040 (NPS)
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100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Other Renewables
Wind & Solar
Hydro
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-
The IEA New Policies Scenario (NPS) projects coal demand to increase from 5.35Btce in 2017 to 5.44Btce in 2040 (~2%)
-
Coal’s share of a growing primary energy demand is projected to decline from 27% in 2017 to 22% in 2040. Proportional gains are forecast from LNG and renewables
-
Our customer feedback and regular review of their governments energy policies provide strong confidence in coal’s key role for our customer energy mix during this timeframe
Source: IEA WEO 2018 Report
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Thermal coal – Global supply and demand Demand forecast to increase in Whitehaven’s key markets, supply to remain flat
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Thermal Coal Supply (Mt)
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Indonesia Australia
Russia / CIS Central & South America
Middle East and Africa North America
Mongolia Mozambique
Europe Other Asia
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Thermal Coal Demand (Mt)
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1,500
1,000
500
0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Europe China India
Other Asia Japan South Korea
Central & Sth America Russia / CIS Taiwan
Vietnam North America Middle East and Africa
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- Many respected forecasters and authorities such as the IEA, CRU and IHS are indicating that thermal coal supply is not expected to grow over the next 5 to 10 years
Source: IHS Markit 2019
-
From 2018 to 2023 demand is forecast to grow in Asia (ex. China) and decrease in Europe and China
-
Whitehaven’s coal quality is positively correlated to the main forecasted growth markets, in particular SE Asia and Vietnam
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Why the growth in demand from India & SE Asia? Increasing per capita electricity consumption to drive higher demand
Electricity Consumption per Capita 2017 (kWh)
Southeast Asia Electricity Generation IEA NPS (TWh)
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9,000
2,500
8,000
Developed
7,000
2,000
Developing
6,000
5,000 1,500
4,000
1,000
3,000
2,000
500
1,000
0 -
2017 2025 2030 2035 2040
Coal Oil Gas
Nuclear Hydro Bioenergy
Wind Geothermal Solar
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- Low per capita electricity consumption in these developing nations, combined with growing populations and rapid industrialisation is driving both growth in electricity demand and growth in generation from all sources in the region
Source: Commodity Insights June 2019 and WEO 2018 NPS, see Appendix 3 for the full disclosure on the IEA NPS
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Demand for higher quality thermal coal Remains robust as the efficiency of the global fleet increases
SC / USC coal-fired plants become the ‘technologies of choice’
-
Higher-energy, lower-impurity coals are strongly leveraged to environmental reforms as economies progressively reduce their carbon footprints
-
Increased plant efficiencies lead to rising adoption of supercritical ( SC ) and ultra-supercritical ( USC ) coal-fired power:
-
From ~20% efficiency for subcritical plants to 4050% for SC/USC plants; and
-
SC/USC plants require smaller volumes of coal fuel to generate electricity; and
-
Higher energy coals allow coal-fired power generators to reduce their blended coal volumes, resulting in lower fuel costs (and carbon footprint)
Global coal demand by boiler type
And the increasing adoption of SC / USC generation (NPS)
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SC / USC generation: 29%
Subcritical
2017
Supercritical
Ultra-supercritical
IGCC and CCUS
2040
CHP and heat
Mtce 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000 3 500
SC / USC generation: 56%
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Source: WEO 2018 NPS, see Appendix 3 for the full disclosure on the IEA NPS
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Metallurgical coal – Global supply and demand Forecast demand outstrips forecast supply
Metallurgical Coal Supply (Mt)
Metallurgical Coal Demand (Mt)
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400 400
350 350
300 300
250 250
200 200
150 150
100 100
50 50
0 0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Australia North America Russia / CIS Europe China India
Mongolia Indonesia Mozambique Other Asia Japan South Korea
Europe Other Asia Middle East and Africa Central & Sth America Russia / CIS Taiwan
Vietnam North America Middle East and Africa
Central & South America
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-
From 2018 to 2023 supply growth is low and primarily from:
-
Supplying increasing by 27Mtpa
-
Australia - 14Mtpa
-
Mongolia - 5Mtpa
-
Mozambique - 4Mtpa
-
Indonesia - 4Mtpa
-
-
Increasing ash and phosphorous levels in coking coals will see increasing demand for Whitehaven’s SSCC
-
From 2018 to 2023 demand is forecasted to grow by 33Mtpa:
-
Demand increasing by 33Mtpa
-
China - 14Mtpa
-
India - 12Mtpa
-
Vietnam - 4Mtpa
-
-
Europe, Japan, Korea, Taiwan are relatively stable
Source: IHS Markit 2019
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Whitehaven coal sales
JKT remain our major customers for high CV thermal & India an emerging market for our metallurgical coal
Sales by Coal Type (Mt)
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16
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16
FY17 FY18 FY19
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1 2
High CV Low CV SSCC PCI
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Sales by Country (Mt)
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14
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16
FY17 FY18 FY19
12
10
8
6
4
2
Japan Korea Taiwan India Other China Malaysia Indonesia Vietnam New
Caledonia
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- Metallurgical coal sales have grown in volume but remain similar proportion in FY19 to that in FY13
1 High CV ≥5,850 CV 2 Low CV <5,850 CV
-
India is a growing metallurgical coal importer
-
Markets to watch – Malaysia, Vietnam, Philippines, New Caledonia and Bangladesh
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Outlook for Whitehaven
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ROM coal production profile
ROM coal production grows from ~ 23Mt in FY2019 to ~ 50Mt when fully ramped
-
Production is set to grow strongly over the next ten years through a combination of greenfield and brownfield developments across the business
-
The proportion of metallurgical coal will also increase as both Vickery and Winchester South possess significant quantities of good quality metallurgical coal
-
Project timing is subject to regulatory approvals which are advancing in line with expectations
Whitehaven Managed ROM Coal Production (Mt)
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60
50
40
30
20
10
0
FY2020 FY2022 FY2024 FY2026 FY2028 FY2030
Werris Creek Tarrawonga Narrabri Maules Creek Vickery Winchester South
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Note: Graph depicts ROM and saleable coal production on a 100% basis and with Winchester South and Vickery production fully ramped. The production profile shown in the chart is fully underpinned by the Company’s Marketable Reserves from its operating mines and the Vickery and Winchester South projects. See Appendix 1 and Appendix 2 for full details of Whitehaven’s Coal Resources and Reserves JORC tables and Slide 2 for the Competent Persons Statement. 100% of the forecast production from the Vickery project is underpinned by the JORC Reserves released to the ASX on 13 August, 2015 and available on Whitehaven’s website. 100% of the forecast production from Winchester South is underpinned by Measured and Indicated Resources. The JORC Resources estimate for Winchester South was released to the ASX by Whitehaven on 25 October 2018. The full JORC Resources report is also available on Whitehaven’s website (Whitehavencoal.com.au). See Appendix 1 for the JORC Resources table. Whitehaven confirms that the material assumptions underpinning the forecast production in the initial public reports referenced for Vickery and Winchester South continue to apply and have not materially changed.
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Targets for FY2020
Preparing for ramp up of growth
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Operational
-
Continue improving safety performance
-
Deliver ROM coal production guidance in the range of 22.0Mt to 23.5Mt (100% basis)
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Financial
-
Return surplus capital to shareholders
-
Maintain the existing strong balance sheet
-
Ensure that costs remain tightly controlled
-
Deliver FY2020 cost guidance of A$70/t
-
Maules Creek in-pit dumping and AHS commences, decreasing costs
-
Tarrawonga ramping up to 3Mtpa ROM coal
-
Obtain Vickery project approval
-
Release Winchester South initial JORC Reserves
-
Begin process to convert the Narrabri South exploration licence to a mining lease
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www.whitehavencoal.com.au
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Appendices
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Resources
| Whitehaven Coal Limited – Coal Resources – August 2019 | Whitehaven Coal Limited – Coal Resources – August 2019 | Whitehaven Coal Limited – Coal Resources – August 2019 | Whitehaven Coal Limited – Coal Resources – August 2019 | Whitehaven Coal Limited – Coal Resources – August 2019 | Whitehaven Coal Limited – Coal Resources – August 2019 | Whitehaven Coal Limited – Coal Resources – August 2019 | Whitehaven Coal Limited – Coal Resources – August 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tenement | Measured Resource (A) | Indicated Resource (B) | Measured + Indicated (A + B) |
Inferred Resource (C) | Competent Person | Report Date | |
| Maules Creek Opencut* | CL375 AUTH346 ML1701 ML1719 |
382 | 174 | 556 | 44 | 1 | Mar-19 |
| Narrabri North Underground** |
ML1609 | 147 | 167 | 314 | - | 2 | Mar-19 |
| Narrabri South Underground** |
EL6243 | 144 | 170 | 314 | 8 | 2 | Mar-19 |
| Tarrawonga Opencut | EL5967 ML1579 ML1685 ML1693 | 38 |
17 | 55 | 13 | 3 | Mar-19 |
| Tarrawonga Underground | EL5967 ML1579 ML1685 ML1693 | 10 |
15 | 25 | 14 | 3 | Apr-14 |
| Werris Creek Opencut | ML1563 ML1672 | 11 | 2 | 13 | - | 2 | Mar-19 |
| Rocglen Opencut | ML1620 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 3 | Mar-19 |
| Rocglen Underground | ML1620 | - | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | Mar-15 |
| VickeryOpencut | CL316 EL4699 EL5831 EL7407 EL8224 ML1464 ML1471 ML1718 |
230 | 165 | 395 | 110 | 3 | Jul-15 |
| Vickery Underground | - | 95 | 95 | 135 | 3 | Jul-15 | |
| Winchester South | MDL 183 | 130 | 300 | 430 | 100 | 4 | Oct-18 |
| Gunnedah Opencut | ML1624 EL5183 CCL701 | 7 | 47 | 54 | 89 | 3 | Jun-14 |
| Gunnedah Underground | ML1624 EL5183 CCL701 | 2 | 138 | 140 | 24 | 3 | Jun-14 |
| Bonshaw Opencut | EL6450 EL6587 | - | 4 | 4 | 7 | 3 | Jun-14 |
| Ferndale Opencut | EL7430 | 103 | 135 | 238 | 134 | 5 | Jan-13 |
| Ferndale Underground | EL7430 | - | - | - | 73 | 5 | Jan-13 |
| Oaklands North Opencut | EL6861 | 110 | 260 | 370 | 580 | 3 | Jun-14 |
| Pearl Creek Opencut*** | EPC862 | - | 14 | 14 | 38 | 6 | Nov-12 |
| TOTAL COAL RESOURCES | 1316 | 1709 | 3026 | 1370 | |||
| 1. Mal Blaik, 2. Mark Benson, 3. Benjamin Thompson, 4. Troy Turner, 5. Greg Jones, 6. Phill Sides Maules Creek Joint Venture - Whitehaven owns 75% share Narrabri Joint Venture - Whitehaven owns 70% share ** Dingo Joint Venture - Whitehaven owns 70% share # The Coal Resources for active mining areas are current to the pit surface as at the report date |
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Reserves
| Whitehaven Coal Limited – Coal Reserves – August 2019 | Whitehaven Coal Limited – Coal Reserves – August 2019 | Whitehaven Coal Limited – Coal Reserves – August 2019 | Whitehaven Coal Limited – Coal Reserves – August 2019 | Whitehaven Coal Limited – Coal Reserves – August 2019 | Whitehaven Coal Limited – Coal Reserves – August 2019 | Whitehaven Coal Limited – Coal Reserves – August 2019 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tenement | Recoverable Reserves | Marketable Reserves | Competent Person | Report | |||||
| Proved | Probable | Total | Proved | Probable | Total | Date | |||
| Maules Creek Opencut* |
CL375 AUTH346 | 340 | 120 | 460 | 310 | 100 | 410 | 1 | Mar-19 |
| Narrabri North Underground** |
ML1609 | 102 | 5 | 107 | 98 | 4 | 102 | 2 | Mar-19 |
| Narrabri South Underground** |
EL6243 | - | 121 | 121 | - | 114 | 114 | 2 | Mar-19 |
| Tarrawonga Opencut |
EL5967 ML1579 ML1685 ML1693 |
26 | 10 | 37 | 22 | 8 | 30 | 1 | Mar-19 |
| Werris Creek Opencut |
ML1563 ML1672 | 9 | 1 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 10 | 1 | Mar-19 |
| Rocglen Opencut | ML1620 | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | Note |
| Vickery Opencut | CL316 EL4699 EL7407 | - | 200 | 200 | - | 178 | 178 | 1 | Mar-15 |
| TOTAL COAL RESERVES | 477 | 457 | 935 | 439 | 405 | 844 | |||
| 1. Doug Sillar, 2. Michael Barker Maules Creek Joint Venture - Whitehaven owns 75% share * Narrabri Joint Venture - Whitehaven owns 70% share # The Coal Reserves for active mining areas are current as at report date ## Coal Reserves are quoted as a subset of Coal Resources ### Marketable Reserves are based on geological modeling of the anticipated yield from Recoverable Reserves |
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Note: See Competent Person Statement on Slide 2
42
IEA New Policies Scenario
The International Energy Agency’s central scenario
Note: The New Policies Scenario provides a measured assessment of where today’s policy frameworks and ambitions, together with the continued evolution of known technologies, might take the energy sector in the coming decades. The policy ambitions include those that have been announced as of August 2018 and incorporates the commitments made in the Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement, but does not speculate as to further evolution of these positions. Where commitments are aspirational, this scenario makes a judgement as to the likelihood of those commitments being met in full. It does not focus on achieving any particular outcome: it simply looks forward on the basis of announced policy ambitions. The IEA does provide other projections – Sustainable Development Scenario and its Current Policies Scenario. The Sustainable Development Scenario has the lowest projected coal use while the Current Policy Scenario has the highest projected coal use. Details of the IEA’s scenarios can be found in the IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2018.
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43