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Westwing Group SE — Earnings Release 2020
Nov 10, 2020
488_ip_2020-11-10_83330c4e-fbac-41d3-9a11-7fa73cfb790b.pdf
Earnings Release
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Q3 2020 Results
UNAUDITED Munich, November 10, 2020
Certain statements in this communication may constitute forward looking statements. These statements are based on assumptions that are believed to be reasonable at the time they are made and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties. You should not rely on these forward-looking statements as predictions of future events and we undertake no obligation to update or revise these statements. Our actual results may differ materially and adversely from any forward-looking statements discussed on this call due to a number of factors, including without limitation, risks from macroeconomic developments, external fraud, inefficient processes at fulfillment centers, inaccurate personnel and capacity forecasts for fulfillment centers, hazardous material / conditions in production with regard to private labels, lack of innovation capabilities, inadequate data security, lack of market knowledge, risk of strike and changes in competition levels.
OUR MISSION
To inspire and make
every home a
beautiful home
AGENDA
- Business Update
- Financial Update
- Summary and Q&A
- Appendix
Summary
| GROWTH | Very strong 66% revenue growth; Q4-to-date growth slightly accelerating | |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2020 RESULTS |
PROFITABILITY | 11% Adj EBITDA margin based on structurally strong contribution margin and scale effects |
| FREE CASH FLOW | EUR 7m Free Cash Flow; positive during the seasonally weaker summer quarter | |
| STRUCTURAL SHIFT TO ONLINE |
New customers gained in recent months continue to indicate strong repeat purchase behaviour; existing customers continue with higher engagement and repurchase rates |
|
| COVID-19 UPDATE | Amid an escalating COVID-19 situation in Europe, health & safety remains our number one priority; pro-active management of related risks in supply and operations |
|
| GUIDANCE 2020 (as per guidance update from Oct 19, 2020) |
EUR 415 - 440m revenue (55 - 65% growth) and EUR 37 - 48m Adj EBITDA (9 - 11% margin) |
COVID-19 update: Escalating situation in Europe; health & safety number one priority; pro-actively managing risks
Amid an escalating COVID-19 situation in Europe, health & safety remains our number one priority...
Customer safety is of utmost importance to us, to live up to this priority we operate with wideranging hygiene measures in warehousing and, together with our freight carriers, in delivery.
Warehouses and photo studios continue to operate with highest hygiene standards and effective distancing measures in a safe work environment.
Majority of office teams are working from home at excellent productivity levels.
…and we continue to pro-actively manage risks
We take comprehensive safety measures to minimize the risk of a temporary warehouse closure due to a COVID-19 outbreak, yet a risk remains.
Due to the general online shift, freight carriers might face capacity constraints. We are working with existing and newly onboarded carrier partners to mitigate effects.
Rigid border closures would severely affect our supply and delivery processes, as most of these processes are cross border.
Sustainably higher online penetration, which continued through Q3, drove strong customer and GMV growth…
...across our whole country portfolio
8
Growth driven both by existing and new customers: Existing customers with continued higher engagement repurchase rate in Q3
Indications that customer behaviour has fundamentally changed towards more eCommerce
• Our already very loyal cohorts continue to show higher engagement across the board
• We see an increased order and repurchase frequency across all older cohorts
• GMV per active buyer is increasing for all our cohorts
• We welcomed back many customers, who had not bought at Westwing for a longer time
As a result, existing cohorts have grown their GMV considerably compared to last year
Growth driven both by existing and new customers: New customer metrics also remained very strong in Q3
Ongoing strong new customer acquisition due to structural online shift
Average Q3 (2016-2018) Q3 2019 Q3 2020 +68%
Number of new customers acquired
Strong new customer acquisition continues to indicate a structural, accelerated online shift.
New customers continue to indicate strong repeat purchasing behavior
(in weeks after first purchase)
Repeat purchase behaviour of recently gained new customers indicate they are likely to remain loyal customers.
Instagram followers now at >5 million across Europe and growing
Weekly development of Instagram followers (in m)
Underlying new customer drivers developing very well, e.g. our strongly growing organic audience on Instagram.
10
Q4-to-date growth slightly accelerating, further indications of structural shift; this has led to guidance increase to EUR 415-440m revenue for FY 2020
Monthly GMV growth (year over year)
- Growth rates stabilized in Q3 on a very high level despite lock-down measures had been eased and stationary shops opened again
- Q4-to-date growth slightly accelerating, we have prepared our operations and supply accordingly
- Both developments support indications of structural shift
AGENDA
• Business Update
• Financial Update
- Summary and Q&A
- Appendix
Revenue growth at 66% in Q3 2020
DACH Segment Revenue (in EUR m) 99 152 YTD 2019 YTD 2020 +52% 34 54 Q3 2019 Q3 2020 +59%
International Segment Revenue (in EUR m)
| (in % of revenue, unaudited) | YTD 2019 | YTD 2020 | Delta | Q3 2019 | Q3 2020 | Delta | Gross margin on all-time high, mainly due to margin discipline, but includes also |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 43.3% | 48.3% | +5.0%pts | 44.3% | 49.2% | +4.9%pts | some special effects, e.g. low inventory write-offs due to high growth and high |
| Fulfilment Costs | -24.3% | -20.5% | +3.8%pts | -24.2% | -19.9% | +4.2%pts | inventory-turn Efficiency improvements, |
| Contribution margin | 19.1% | 27.8% | +8.8%pts | 20.2% | 29.3% | +9.1%pts | scale effects and special effects from currently low return rate that we expect to revert in 2021 |
| Marketing ratio | -8.8% | -7.3% | +1.6%pts | -10.9% | -7.8% | +3.1%pts | Very high invest in Q3 2019, now back to lower end of |
| G&A ratio | -21.0% | -14.5% | +6.5%pts | -20.2% | -13.2% | +7.0%pts | target ratio between 8-10% Operating leverage |
| D&A | 3.7% | 2.8% | -0.9%pts | 4.3% | 2.7% | -1.6%pts | |
| Adj EBITDA | -7.3% | 8.8% | +16.0%pts | -7.1% | 10.9% | +18.0%pts |
Group highly profitable; DACH and International segment both performing well
International Segment Adj EBITDA (in % of Revenue)
15
Net Working Capital negative at EUR -11m; CAPEX ratio very low at 1.9%
Free Cash Flow improved by EUR +53m year over year to EUR 23m YTD 2020
17
Strong Net Cash position of EUR 92m end of Q3 2020
Guidance FY 2020 and outlook
Guidance FY2020 (as per Oct 19, 2020) Outlook
EUR 415 - 440m Revenue
(55 - 65% growth)
|--|
EUR 37 - 48m Adj EBITDA (9 - 11% margin)
- Focus is now on delivering a great 2020, but 2020 will be an exceptional year in terms of growth and profitability
- Significant scale-effects through strong growth from Q2 onwards
- Some special effects in contribution margin
- Subject to further development of Coronavirus situation • Westwing is pursuing a long-term profitable growth strategy, which now requires further growth investments:
- Increasing Marketing, mainly organic channels
- Catch-up investments into Technology (capitalized part as Technology-CAPEX)
- Expansion of Own & Private Label business
- While we are confident and optimistic, the growth outlook remains volatile and there is high uncertainty around 2021 development
AGENDA
- Business Update
- Financial Update
- Summary and Q&A
- Appendix
| 3.4 million Orders(1) | Opportunity is massive | Home & living market of EUR 117bn is very early in eCommerce with huge growth potential from higher online penetration |
|---|---|---|
| & 1.3 million Active Customers(2) |
||
| Growth driven by loyalty | 1.3 million active customers(2) and >80% of orders placed by repeat customers |
|
| EUR 415 - 440 million Revenue(3) |
Own & Private Label | Growth driver with bestsellers tailored to our customers and providing superior profitability |
| Strong cash profile | Net Cash of EUR 92m(2), negative NWC, very low CAPEX ratio (2-3%) |
|
| EUR 37 - 48 million |
||
| Adj EBITDA(3) | Attractive Target P&L | 10+% Adj EBITDA and strong cash conversion (Q3 2020 LTM Free Cash Flow margin already at 9%) |
AGENDA
- Business Update
- Financial Update
- Summary and Q&A
- Appendix
| Group KPIs | Unit | Q1 2017 | Q2 2017 | Q3 2017 | Q4 2017 | Q1 2018 | Q2 2018 | Q3 2018 | Q4 2018 | Q1 2019 | Q2 2019 | Q3 2019 | Q4 2019 | Q1 2020 | Q2 2020 | Q3 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own and Private Label share | in % of GMV | 7% | 9% | 11% | 12% | 13% | 15% | 18% | 18% | 21% | 22% | 27% | 25% | 25% | 22% | 26% |
| Active customers | in k | 794 | 788 | 802 | 838 | 881 | 907 | 921 | 934 | 927 | 909 | 926 | 949 | 986 | 1,178 | 1,284 |
| Number of orders | in k | 510 | 492 | 496 | 723 | 611 | 555 | 507 | 726 | 591 | 492 | 539 | 805 | 675 | 1,051 | 874 |
| Average basket size | in EUR | 115 | 114 | 114 | 113 | 119 | 120 | 124 | 122 | 129 | 132 | 132 | 121 | 127 | 122 | 129 |
| Average orders LTM per active customer | in # | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.7 |
| Average GMV LTM per active customer | in EUR | 289 | 293 | 297 | 301 | 302 | 305 | 307 | 312 | 318 | 322 | 326 | 327 | 324 | 325 | 330 |
| GMV | in EUR m | 58 | 56 | 56 | 81 | 72 | 67 | 63 | 89 | 76 | 65 | 71 | 98 | 85 | 128 | 113 |
| Mobile visit share | in % | 67% | 69% | 71% | 71% | 72% | 73% | 74% | 74% | 75% | 76% | 77% | 76% | 76% | 79% | 80% |
KPI definitions
| Own and Private Label share | GMV share of Own and Private Label: GMV of Own and Private Label business as % of GMV Group in the same reporting period |
|---|---|
| Active customers | A customer who has made a valid order within the last 12 month |
| Number of orders | Total number of valid orders (excluding failed and cancelled orders) of a reporting period |
| Average basket size | Weighted average value of an order: GMV divided by total number of orders of the same reporting period |
| Average orders LTM per active customer | Total number of orders of the last 12 months divided by active customers of a reporting period |
| Average GMV LTM per active customer | GMV of the last 12 month divided by active customers |
| GMV | Gross Merchandise Volume: Value of all valid customer orders placed of a reporting period (i.e. excluding cancelation and VAT, but including returns). |
| Mobile visit share | Share of daily unique visits per platform via mobile devices (tablets and smartphones) as % of all daily unique visits per platform of a reporting period |
Consolidated income statement
| EUR m, in % of revenue, unaudited | YTD 2019 | YTD 2020 | Q3 2019 | Q3 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 179 | 277 | 59 | 99 |
| Cost of Sales | -101 | -143 | -33 | -50 |
| Gross profit | 78 | 134 | 26 | 48 |
| Fulfilment expenses | -44 | -57 | -14 | -20 |
| Marketing expenses | -16 | -20 | -7 | -8 |
| General and administrative expenses | -48 | -47 | -14 | -16 |
| Other operating expenses | -1 | -2 | -0 | -1 |
| Other operating income | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Operating result | -31 | 10 | -9 | 5 |
| Financial result | -4 | -2 | -2 | -1 |
| Result before income tax | -34 | 8 | -11 | 4 |
| Income tax expense | -0 | -3 | -0 | -2 |
| Result for the period | -35 | 5 | -12 | 2 |
| Reconciliation to Adj EBITDA | ||||
| Operating result (EBIT) | -31 | 10 | -9 | 5 |
| Share-based compensation expenses | 9 | 7 | 2 | 3 |
| Restructuring France and Italy | 2 | -0 | -0 | -0 |
| D&A | 7 | 8 | 3 | 3 |
| Adj. EBITDA | -13 | 24 | -4 | 11 |
| Adj EBITDA margin (%) | -7.3% | 8.8% | -7.1% | 10.9% |
25 Note: All figures unaudited. Adj EBITDA is excluding (i) share-based compensation expenses, (ii) expenses for the restructuring of the French business. Previous-year figures for share-based compensation restated according to IAS 8.
Adjusted income statement
| EUR m, in % of revenue, unaudited | YTD 2019 | YTD 2020 | Q3 2019 | Q3 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 179 | 277 | 59 | 99 |
| Revenue Growth YoY | 2.1% | 55.0% | 8.7% | 65.9% |
| Cost of Sales | -101 | -143 | -33 | -50 |
| Gross Profit | 78 | 134 | 26 | 48 |
| Gross Margin | 43.3% | 48.3% | 44.3% | 49.2% |
| Fulfillment expenses | -43 | -57 | -14 | -20 |
| Contribution profit | 34 | 77 | 12 | 29 |
| Contribution margin | 19.1% | 27.8% | 20.2% | 29.3% |
| Marketing expenses | -16 | -20 | -7 | -8 |
| General and administrative expenses | -38 | -40 | -12 | -13 |
| Other operating expenses | -1 | -2 | -0 | -1 |
| Other operating income | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Depreciation and Amortization | 7 | 8 | 3 | 3 |
| Adj EBITDA | -13 | 24 | -4 | 11 |
| Adj EBITDA Margin | -7.3% | 8.8% | -7.1% | 10.9% |
Segment reporting
(in EUR m), unaudited
| DACH | YTD 2019 | YTD 2020 | Q3 2019 | Q3 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 99 | 152 | 34 | 54 |
| YoY Growth (in %) | 11% | 52% | 15% | 59% |
| Adj. EBITDA | -4 | 21 | -1 | 9 |
| Adj. EBITDA Margin % | -4.2% | 13.8% | -4.1% | 16.4% |
| International | YTD 2019 | YTD 2020 | Q3 2019 | Q3 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 79 | 126 | 25 | 44 |
| YoY Growth (in %) | -7% | 58% | 1% | 75% |
| Adj. EBITDA | -9 | 4 | -3 | 2 |
| Adj. EBITDA Margin % | -10.7% | 2.9% | -10.7% | 4.4% |
Net Working Capital Bridge
Net Working Capital (NWC) break down as of September 30, 2020 (EUR m)
Free Cash Flow driven by operating profits and Net Working Capital
Issued share capital
Share Information as of September 30, 2020
| Type of Shares | Ordinary bearer shares with no-par value (Stückaktien) |
|---|---|
| Stock Exchange | Frankfurt Stock Exchange |
| Market Segment | Regulated Market (Prime Standard) |
| Number of Shares issued | 20,740,809 |
| Issued Share Capital | EUR 20,740,809 |
| Treasury Shares | 698,300 |
Stock Option Programs as of September 30, 2020
| Program | # of options outstanding | Weighted average exercise price (EUR) |
|---|---|---|
| VSOP 2019(1) | 880,000 | 1.00(1) |
| LTIP 2019(2) | 2,034,150 | 19.30(2) |
| LTIP 2016 | 273,000 | 0.01 |
| Other | 1,074,750 | 8.32 |
| Total | 4,261,900 | 11.52 |
Upcoming Events
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| November 18, 2020 | Deutsches Eigenkapitalforum 2020 (incl. Analyst Day) |
| November 19, 2020 | Berenberg West Coast Consumer & E-Commerce Conference |
| November 30, 2020 | Berenberg European Conference Pennyhill |
| March 30, 2021 | Publication of FY 2020 results |
| May 12, 2021 | Publication of Q1 2021 results |
| August 12, 2021 | Publication of Q2 2021 results |
| November 11, 2021 | Publication of Q3 2021 results |