Investor Presentation • Apr 1, 2020
Investor Presentation
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IHS Markit assume 2020 global LV sales set at 78.8m for 2020, down 12% with downgrades across all major regions, and risk of further downgrade
LV Sales, million units
LV deep-sea volume, million units
Supply
Temporary plant closures in all major regions e.g. Europe, NA, Korea and Japan, while Chinese operations appear to be recovering
IHS Markit assume deepsea volume to see decline from 14.9m in 2019 to 13.1m in 2020, equal to a drop of 12%, with risk of further downgrade
Demand
Large uncertainty to how fast consumers will turn back to dealers, governmental stimulus such as tax brakes might contribute to rebound
Source: IHS Markit
Mixed government responses, but H&H deemed «essential» in several key markets and exempt from shutdowns due to the coronavirus outbreak
Production suspension
Temporary plant closures in a number of affected regions e.g. Europe and Brazil, while Chinese operations appear to be recovering
OEMs are withdrawing FY2020 guidance due to the uncertainty around the ultimate magnitude of COVID-19 on financial and operational results
Reduced capex spend and postponed investment decisions due to current global economic conditions and an uncertain outlook
Source: 1) Caterpillar | 3 month rolling retail sales (Units last 3 months y-o-y) 2) Tractor sales and registrations in key markets | US Large Tractors (2WD 100+HP & 4WD), Australia Large tractor (100+HP), Brazil (All), Germany (70KW+), UK (50+HP) 3) FactSet data and Analytics (30.03.20) | OEM Revenue Consensus Estimate (y-o-y). Construction: Volvo, Caterpillar, CNH, Komatsu, Hitachi, Terex. Mining: Sandvik, Caterpillar, Hitachi, Epiroc. Agriculture: AGCO, CNH, Deere. Sales in construction/mining/agriculture equipment divisions only
| Item | Key characteristics | Measures to adjust costs |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ▪ Auto contract duration typically 1-3 years, and 3-5 years for H&H ▪ Rates are fixed for the contract period, but no volume minimum ▪ Contracts representing 20% of revenue up for renewal in 2020 |
|
| Variable cost |
▪ Approximately 70% of total costs are variable in ocean segment ▪ Variable costs consist of cargo, bunker and voyage expenses |
▪ Adjust speed, adjust sailing schedules and idling of vessels ▪ Tighter bunker inventory management |
| Fixed cost | ▪ Approximately 30% of total costs are fixed in ocean segment ▪ Ship operating and charter expenses considered short term fixed, and will move in steps, dependent on number of vessels operated |
▪ Redelivery of chartered vessels: Average charter hire saved per day for redelivery candidates in range USD 18 000 – 20 000 ▪ Cold lay-up for 10 vessels (OPEX reduction per vessel per day in lay up of USD 3000 – 4000) and defer drydocking ▪ Early recycling of up to four vessels, estimated positive cash impact of about USD 4 – 7 million per vessel |
| CAPEX | ▪ CAPEX primarily related to planned dry-dockings, including ballast water treatment systems installations ▪ Scrubber installation program for 16 vessels ▪ Two newbuildings expected in Q2 2020 and late 2020 |
▪ Reduce capex to critical maintenance and dockings ▪ Cancellation of 4 scrubber installations, cash impact of USD 20m in total (of which USD 5 million was estimated for 2020) |
| Item | Key characteristics | Measures to adjust costs |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ▪ Inland distribution and technical services typically depend on factory throughput, and terminals on ocean volumes ▪ The anti-cyclical storage business may experience higher volumes |
|
| Variable and fixed cost |
▪ Approximately 75% of total costs are variable in landbased segment ▪ Approximately 25% of total costs are fixed in landbased segment |
▪ Adjusting variable costs in line with customer activity and volumes |
| CAPEX | ▪ Maintenance CAPEX related to equipment, sites and buildings ▪ Growth CAPEX related to expansions of existing sites and new site developments |
▪ Reduce CAPEX to critical maintenance, delay growth CAPEX |
| Other measures taken on group-wide level |
Group
fixed cost
A strong balance sheet coupled with distant debt maturities gives confidence in a global trough
Source: 1) IHS Markit | World (major exporters) LV Deepsea exports (Value > 8 kUSD). 2) IHS Markit | World (major exporters) construction & rolling mining equipment and agriculture equipment exports (Avg. equipment value >20 kUSD). WW H&H shipments do not include Commercial vehicles such as Buses & Trucks
Q&A
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