
Q1 2020 Quarterly results presentation
Covid-19 – Staying true to our purpose and our values
OUR PRINCIPLES
- Take social responsibility for employees and community
- Be financially prudent for our shareholders
- Maintain operational stability for our customers
- Protect long-term operational capabilities to be ready to meet the future

Highlights first quarter 2020
- Adjusted EBITDA of USD 130 million, impacted by lower volumes
- Ocean volume declined 20% y-o-y, due to Covid-19 combined with generally slower markets
- Performance in Landbased fell as a result of lower volumes, partly due to Covid-19
- ARC awarded contract for transportation of household goods with US Transportation Command
- Decisive action taken to reduce costs and strengthen liquidity
- Strong cash position and solid balance sheet will help the company through a turbulent period

Agenda


Business update
by Craig Jasienski

Covid-19: Focus on the welfare of employees, the community, and customer needs

- Facilities: social distancing and cleaning precautions, safe infrastructure and processes
- Office employees: Majority working from home, others social distancing at workplace
- Mental health & wellness: resources offered on-line
- Seafarers: crew changes stopped and additional health and safety precautions taken
- Ocean: vessels on efficiency schedule with slow steaming, reduced sailings and idling
- Terminals: all terminals open, supporting customers with storage
- VPC's: half open, with reduced volumes; half closed due to OEM plant closure
- EPC's: majority open and operating, some closed due to OEM plant closure
- Customers: Close dialogue on schedule adjustments and way forward
- Business development: Exploring additional services to customers evolving needs
- Liquidity: Focus on cashflow across the business and constructive dialogue with banks
- Volumes: Q2 ocean volumes expected to be down by around 50% y-o-y
Cash preservation measures in motion with estimated potential of up towards USD 200 million during 2020 and 2021
Ocean segment
- Cancellation/deferral of scrubber installations
- Early recycling of vessels
- Cold lay-up of vessels
- Delay vessel drydocking
- Ship management savings

Landbased segment
- Deferral of all non-essential CAPEX
- Temporary lay-off of production workers

Group SG&A
- Cancel and pause non-essential projects
- Non-salary related SG&A savings program
- Voluntary temporary salary reductions & furloughs

Reducing fleet costs and capacity
RECYCLING
- 2 vessels to be recycled in Q3
- 2 vessels to be recycled in Q4
COLD LAYUP
- 10 vessels in cold layup in Norway and Malaysia (9 by end of Q2, 1 in July)
- An additional 10 vessels under evaluation
REDELIVERY
- Q1: 4 vessels redelivered
- Q2: 3 vessels to be redelivered
- Q3-4: 3 vessel candidates
- 2021: 3 vessel candidates
Fleet development – vessels in operation
# of vessels

Ocean volumes declined 20% y-o-y, due to Covid-19 coupled with generally slower markets and some effect from relinquished volumes

- Significant impact of Covid-19, particularly out of Asia
- Some impact from contracts not renewed in Q4 2019 (in EU-AS trade with effect from Jan 2020, and in EU/NA-OC with effect from Nov 2019)
- High & heavy share 30.7%
1) Total volume based on prorated volume (WW Ocean, EUKOR, ARC and Armacup)
2) H&H share calculated based on unprorated volumes. Nominal volume for auto and H&H calculated as total prorated volume x unprorated auto share and total prorated volume x unprorated H&H share, respectively
Lower volumes experienced across the main trades

Note: Prorated volumes on operational trade basis in CBM
1) Including Cape sailings (South Africa)
The positive development for net freight per CBM seen throughout 2019 is sustained into 2020
Net freight / CBM development
Net freight = Freight revenues adjusted for surcharge elements such as BAF, SRC, THC etc.

Small positive impact from contract renewals in first quarter
Rate changes and impact from 2020 contract renewals (Circle indicates size of contract in millions) -20 -10 0 10 20 30 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Rate change Per cent. Contract renewals Q1 2020 Overview of 2020 contract renewals Per cent. Renewed 63% 2020 2% To be renewed Not renewed 35%
Rate impact (USD millions)
ARC wins GHC contract with TRANSCOM
- Revenues of more than USD 2.0 billion per year as of 2022
- Margins for first 24 months in range 0-2%, improving over time
- Covers ca 400 000 domestic and international shipments of household goods per year
- ARC is the primary contract holder, and will work with leaders in the moving, logistics, and technology industries
- Deloitte, UniGroup, Atlas World Group, Suddath, and The Pasha Group
- Protests are possible, but given TRANSCOM's professional process, and competitiveness and completeness of our bid, we have every confidence this will not change the outcome


Financial performance
by Astrid Martinsen

Consolidated results – Q1 2020
- performance impacted by lower volumes
|
Q1 2020 |
Q4 2019 |
% change Q-o-Q |
Q1 2019 |
% change Y-o-Y |
| Total income |
834 |
932 |
(11%) |
1018 |
(18%) |
| Operating expenses |
(770) |
(771) |
(9%) |
(854) |
(10%) |
| EBITDA* |
130 |
162 |
(20%) |
218 |
(40%) |
| EBITDA adjusted |
130 |
194 |
(33%) |
218 |
(40%) |
| EBIT |
(132) |
81 |
n/a |
95 |
n/a |
Financial income/(expenses) |
(153) |
(22) |
610% |
(70) |
118% |
| Tax income/(expense) |
(0) |
(19) |
n/a |
(3) |
n/a |
| Profit for the period |
(285) |
41 |
n/a |
22 |
n/a |
| EPS |
(0.65) |
0.10 |
n/a |
0.05 |
n/a |
Ocean segment – Q1 2020
- EBITDA declined by 41% as a result of lower volumes
Total income USD million
812 800 773 756 652 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 -20% -14%
Adjusted EBITDA1

• Revenue declined 20% y-o-y as a result of lower volumes combined with lower net freight/CBM compared to the high level in Q1 2019, and less other operating income
• EBITDA down by 41% due to the lower volumes and higher net bunker cost of about USD 20m (adjusted for volume effects)
Landbased segment – Q1 2020
- EBITDA fell by 37% as a result of lower volumes
Total income USD million

Adjusted EBITDA1 USD million

- Revenue down 12% y-o-y as lower volumes impacted across all segments, partly driven by plant closures as a result of Covid-19
- EBITDA fell 37% y-o-y with particularly Solutions Americas – Auto and Terminals contributing to the decline
Cash flow and liquidity development – first quarter 2020
- free cash flow of USD 32 million
USD million
Undrawn credit facilities

Balance sheet – first quarter 2020

Capital expenditures reduced significantly in 2020
CAPEX reduced to a minimum, prioritizing safety and maintenance critical expenditures
▪ Landbased CAPEX estimated at ~USD 5m for rest of year, mainly required maintenance A
Ocean CAPEX rest of year primarily related to:
- Drydocking (incl. ballast-water treatment systems) and other maintenance estimated to ~USD 30m B
- Scrubber installations estimated to about USD 20m in 2020, for which we have committed financing of USD ~15m C
- Two newbuildings remaining, with final instalments amounting to ~USD 40m per vessel. Financing of ~USD 50m per vessel will be drawn after delivery. Estimated delivery latest Q3 2020 and around year-end 2020 D
Overview of main capital expenditures 2020
USD million

Market outlook
by Craig Jasienski

Auto sales down 20.7% y-o-y as Covid-19 made its impact starting in China
Global light vehicle (LV) sales per quarter1) Units

• Total light vehicle (LV) sales in the first quarter decreased 20.7% compared to the corresponding period last year and down 23.9% from the previous quarter as the coronavirus made its impact starting in China and continuing in all major auto markets.
Global light vehicle (LV) export per quarter1) Units

• Total exports in the first quarter were down 12.9% compared to the corresponding period last year, down 17.2% from the previous quarter.
Latest IHS forecast estimates global LV sales to drop 22% in 2020 overall
2018 2019 2020
COVID-19 status update Auto

LV Sales
IHS Markit assume 2020 global LV sales set at 70.3m for 2020, down 22% with downgrades across all major regions, and risk of further downgrade

Supply
Temporary plant closures in all major regions. Recovery seems to take a while as a stop-start rhythm prevents efficiency, slow bands and tricky new health protocols

Deepsea trade ?
IHS Markit assume deepsea volume to see decline from 14.9m in 2019 to 11.4m in 2020, equal to a drop of 23%, with risk of further downgrade

Demand implications
Large uncertainty to how fast consumers will turn back to dealers, governmental stimulus such as tax breaks, "cash-for –clunkers" e.g. might contribute to rebound

2022 2025 2026
2024
2021 2023 2027
H&H sales were softening towards end of 2019 and are expected to slow further as a result of Covid-19
COVID-19 status update
Government policies
Mixed government responses, but H&H deemed «essential» in several key markets and exempt from coronavirus shutdowns

Production suspension
Temporary plant closures in a number of affected regions e.g Europe and Brazil, while Chinese operations appear to be recovering
Demand implications
Reduced capex spend and postponed investment decisions due to current global economic conditions and an uncertain outlook

Guidance withdrawals ?
OEMs are withdrawing FY2020 guidance due to uncertainty around the ultimate impact of COVID-19 on financial and operational results

Source: 1 IHS Markit | World (major exporters) construction & rolling mining equipment and agriculture equipment exports (Avg. equipment value >20 kUSD ) (Units last 3 months y-o-y) (Rolling average units last 12 months), Deep Sea Trades= AS-EU, AS-NA, EU-AS, EU-NA, EU-OC, NA-AS, NA-EU, NA-OC. *Trade data complete as of Jan '20. Feb '20 growth rates are limited to countries that have reported customs figures to IHS Markit by the end of April 2020 2Parker Bay | Large Mining Equipment Deliveries (Units last 3 months y-o-y) 3Caterpillar | 3 month rolling retail sales (Units last 3 months y-o-y) 4Tractor sales and registrations in key markets | 3 month rolling retail sales (Units last 3 months y-o-y), US Large Tractors (2WD 100+HP & 4WD), Australia Large tractor (100+HP), Brazil (All), UK (50+HP) 5Factset (01.05.20) | OEM Revenue Consensus Estimate (y-o-y). Construction: Volvo, Caterpillar, CNH, Komatsu, Hitachi, Terex. Mining: Sandvik, Caterpillar, Hitachi, Epiroc. Agriculture: AGCO, CNH, Deere. Sales in construction/mining/agriculture equipment divisions only

Outlook and Q&A
by Craig Jasienski

Outlook
- Starting from a solid cash position, taking decisive action early, and successfully implementing cost reductions globally is protecting group liquidity
- Volume outlook remains very uncertain, but today indications show a sharp fall in auto volumes as a result of Covid-19 related auto OEM plant closures. High & heavy and breakbulk expected to hold up better, though also with reduced volumes
- Q2 is likely to be a low water-mark with around 50% drop in ocean volumes
- Our focus is on supporting customers in the recovery and ensuring a safe return to normal for those operations and offices that have been closed
- We continue to manage what we can control and have a solid plan for working through these trying times, while taking advantage of any opportunities that may arise to further our strategy

Thank you!
