Investor Presentation • Nov 10, 2020
Investor Presentation
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Craig Jasienski CEO

Strong rebound in un-prorated Auto volumes, increasing 80% QoQ

1) Total volume based on prorated volume (WW Ocean, EUKOR, ARC and Armacup), i.e. volumes are split between months based on the sailing period onboard the vessel

Note: Prorated volumes on operational trade basis in CBM
1) Including Cape sailings (South Africa)
Though few contract renewals in third quarter


Annualised revenue impact (USDm)
Exploiting short-term charter market to meet demand, vessels remain in cold lay-up for now
○ Tannhauser delivered on 10 September


Torbjørn Wist CFO

| RESULTS (USDm) | CASH FLOW & BALANCE SHEET (USDm) | KEY FINANCIAL METRICS | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue | Adjusted EBITDA | Q2-20 Q3-20 |
ROCE (%)1 | ||||||||||
| p u o r G |
954 | 606 | 697 | 213 | 104 | 152 | Operating cash flow |
229 |
145 | 2.5 | -2.8 +5.2 |
||
| EPS (USD) | |||||||||||||
| Q3'19 | Q2'20 | Q3'20 | Q3'19 | Q2'20 | Q3'20 | Net CAPEX |
15 |
68 | 0.01 | -0.07 +0.16 |
|||
| 773 | 188 | ||||||||||||
| n a e c O |
495 | 545 | 104 | 129 | Cash | 539 |
600 | Equity ratio (%) | |||||
| Q3'19 | Q2'20 | Q3'20 | Q3'19 | Q2'20 | Q3'20 | 34.0 | -2.3 | ||||||
| d e s a b d n a L |
175 Q3'20 |
2 Q2'20 |
28 Q3'20 |
Equity | ➔ 2 561 |
2 564 | -0.4 | ||||||
| 221 | 29 | ND/EBITDA adj. (x)2 | |||||||||||
| Q3'19 | 126 Q2'20 |
Q3'19 | Net debt | ➔ 3 437 |
3 436 | 5.9 | +1.5 +0.6 |
1) Return on capital employed adjusted: annualised EBIT adjusted divided by capital employed 2) Net interest bearing debt divided by last twelve months adjusted EBITDA
Group EBITDA 29% down YoY in line with lower volumes, recovering QoQ
| USDm | Q3 2020 | Q2 2020 | % change QoQ |
Q3 2019 | % change YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue | 697 | 606 | 15% | 954 | (27%) |
| Operating expenses | (545) | (564) | (3%) | (741) | (26%) |
| EBITDA | 152 | 42 | 263% | 213 | (29%) |
| EBITDA adjusted | 152 | 104 | 46% | 213 | (29%) |
| EBIT | 40 | (45) | n/a | 94 | (57%) |
| Financial income/(expense) |
(36) | (30) | 20% | (72) | (49%) |
| Tax income/(expense) | 0 | 6 | n/a | 14 | (98%) |
| Profit for the period | 4 | (69) | n/a | 36 | (88%) |
| EPS | 0.01 | (0.15) | n/a | 0.08 | (85%) |
Up 23% QoQ as volumes recover from Q2 lows


EBITDA only 5% down due to cost savings and efficiency gains



Supported by free cash flow of USD 37m, deferred loan payments and recent bond issue


Cash

Craig Jasienski CEO

Up 31.7% QoQ as pent-up demand and incentives fuel sales

• Total light vehicle (LV) sales in the third quarter decreased 6.8% compared to the corresponding period last year and up 31.7% from the previous quarter as incentives and pent-up demand after the coronavirus fueled auto sales.

• Total exports in the third quarter were down 13.9% compared to the corresponding period last year, up 33.8% from the previous quarter.
LV Mill units
Global LV markets update
IHS Markit assume 2020 global LV sales set at 73.7m for 2020, down 18%. with downgrades across all major regions, forecasts up from July which expected 70.1m, -22%

Supply
Temporary plant closures took place globally. Recovery on track however stop-start rhythm prevents efficiency, slow bands and tricky new health protocols

Deepsea trade ?
IHS Markit assume deepsea volume to see decline from 14.9m in 2019 to 11.8m in 2020, equal to a drop of 20%, however recover quicker than domestic produced volume

Uncertainty to how fast consumers will turn back to dealers, governmental stimulus and pent-up demand might contribute to rebound

Deepsea share
Global LV sales and production quarterly walk, 2020 and 2021 figures compared to 2019

Order data and broader activity measures keep pulling H&H trade volumes towards positive territory


Source: 1 IHS Markit | PMI (diffusion index), business activity - direction of change compared to the previous month (50 = no change, >50 increasing activity, <50 decreasing activity). Cutoff: October 2020, 2 IHS Markit | World (major exporters) construction & agriculture equipment exports (Avg. equipment value >20 kUSD ) (Units last 3 months, YoY), Cut-off: July 2020. U.S. Census | Manufacturers New Machinery Orders (Value USD last 3 months, YoY). Cutoff: September 2020 3Coefficient of determination with indicated trade lag
Consensus embeds end-market growth from 1Q21, with export momentum buoyed by firming inventories and used equipment markets

22 Source: 1 IHS Markit | World (major exporters) construction & rolling mining equipment and agriculture equipment exports (Avg. equipment value >20 kUSD ) (Units last 3 months YoY) (Rolling average units last 12 months), Deep Sea Trades= AS-EU, AS-NA, EU-AS, EU-NA, EU-OC, NA-AS, NA-EU, NA-OC. *Data cut-off: July 2020. August 2020 data limited to countries that have reported customs figures by 03.11.2020 2Parker Bay | Large Mining Equipment Deliveries (Units last 3 months YoY) 3Caterpillar | 3 month rolling retail sales (Units last 3 months YoY) 4Tractor sales and registrations in key markets | 3 month rolling retail sales (Units last 3 months YoY), US Large Tractors (2WD 100+HP & 4WD), Australia Large tractor (100+HP), Brazil (All), UK (50+HP), Germany (70+KW) 5Factset (20.10.20) | OEM Revenue Consensus Estimate (YoY, CY). Construction: Volvo, Caterpillar, CNH, Komatsu, Hitachi, Deere, Terex, Doosan. Mining: Sandvik, Caterpillar, Hitachi, Epiroc. Agriculture: AGCO (20-22), CNH, Deere. Sales in construction/mining/agriculture equipment divisions only
Increase in recycling
• Orderbook at 13 vessels**


Craig Jasienski CEO

We continue to manage what we can control and have a solid plan for working through these trying times


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