Wallenius Wilhelmsen ASA Fixed income investor meetings
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This presentation (the "Presentation") has been prepared by Wallenius Wilhelmsen ASA ("Wallenius Wilhelmsen ASA" or the "Company" and together with its subsidiaries the "Group"). The Presentation has been prepared and is delivered for information purposes only. It has not been reviewed or registered with, or approved by, any public authority, stock exchange or regulated market place.
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Investment highlights
Agenda
Wallenius Wilhelmsen in brief
Financial performance
Market outlook
Summary and Q&A
Wallenius Wilhelmsen in brief
by Craig Jasienski
Wallenius Wilhelmsen – a long and proud history
Wallenius Wilhelmsen is the undisputed market leader for vehicle logistics
1) Not including Holding segment of negative about USD 10 million
The group is the clear market leader and the #1 operator globally, both in terms of capacity and number of vessels
Wallenius Wilhelmsen has a combined fleet of 137 vessels
- No further CAPEX planned past three newbuildings with expected delivery in 2018/ 2019 (installments of USD ~120 millions remaining)
- Additional capacity need will be acquired in the charter market
- Wallenius Wilhelmsen strives to have fleet flexibility through combination of owned and chartered tonnage
An unrivalled and agile global trade network to meet changing demand
137 vessels with more than 1,300 sailings and 9,000 port calls per year Overview of key trade routes
Diversified customer portfolio with long term contracts
- Majority of volume from Auto
- High & Heavy and Breakbulk maximize cubic utilization
- Unique handling capabilities of High & Heavy and Breakbulk
Size of cargo segments Main customers include all major OEMs globally
The landbased services network is also global
The landbased services portfolio
• Main customers include all main OEMs globally Landbased services portfolio Main customers Marine Terminals Technical Services Inland Distribution Auto High & Heavy Breakbulk Stevedoring Custom clearance Receive and delivery Cargo handling Accessory fitting Pre delivery inspections Repairs and rectifications Storage management Primarily procurement model EBITDA share: EBITDA share: EBITDA share:
Strong Management Team with +20 years industry experience
Wallenius Wilhelmsen Senior Management team
Experienced Board of Directors with broad industry knowledge and presence – independent Chair and two independent Board Members
Wallenius Wilhelmsen Board of Directors
Member of the Board Marianne Lie • Board member Noreco ASA, Cecon ASA, Nordic American Tankers Ltd, Nordic American Offshore Ltd • Past CEO Norwegian Shipowners' Association Member of the Board Thomas Wilhelmsen • Group CEO Wilh. Wilhelmsen Holding ASA Member of the Board Jonas Kleberg • Chairman and CEO Rederi AB Soya Member of the Board Margareta Alestig • Deputy Managing Director for the Sixth Swedish National Pension Fund • Past CFO for Broström AB, JCE Group AB and Swisslog AB
Financial performance
by Rebekka Herlofsen
Group consolidated results H1 2018
Consolidated results – Total income and EBITDA1,2,3)
USD million
Comments
- Total income was USD 2 012 million in the first half of 2018, up 8% compared to the same period last year due to increased revenues for ocean and landbased
- Costs of USD 5 million related to the restructuring and realization of synergies were recorded in the first half of 2018 compared to USD 20 million in the first half of 2017
- EBITDA adjusted of USD 286 million, down 13% y-o-y
- Reduced contracted HMG volumes
- Lower rates (USD 25 million)
- Unfavorable currency movements (USD 25 million)
- Higher net bunker cost (USD 35 million)
- Trade imbalance and inefficiencies
- Flat development for landbased
- The negative impact from above factors was partly offset by underlying strong volume development, increased high & heavy share and realization of synergies
1) Adjusted for extraordinary items; Merger accounting loss of USD 62m and organizational restructuring cost of USD 20m in Q2 2017 and USD 14m in Q4 2016 2) Comparable numbers for FY2016, H1 2016 and Q1 2017 are pro forma numbers as if the transaction had taken place back in time, and adjusted for anti-trust 3) Historical performance adjusted for discontinued business
Wallenius Wilhelmsen with positive results despite weak markets
1) EBITDA adjusted for extraordinary items; Merger accounting loss of USD 62m and organizational restructuring cost of USD 20m in Q2 2017 and USD 14m in Q4 2016
2) Net result adjusted for Merger accounting loss of USD 62m
3) Comparable numbers for FY2016, H1 2016 and Q1 2017 are pro forma numbers as if the transaction had taken place back in time, and adjusted for anti-trust
USD 110 million of the USD 120 million synergy target confirmed
Confirmed and realized synergy development USD million
Fleet Optimization Ship Management
Realized savings (annualized)
Procurement SG&A savings
Comments
- At the end of the second quarter about USD 110 million of synergy target was confirmed
- During the quarter about USD 25 million was added to confirmed synergies, mainly through ship management, fleet optimization and procurement
- The annualized run rate for synergies were above USD 100 million, up from about USD 80 million in the previous quarter
- The remaining part of the confirmed synergies will gradually come into effect over the next 3-6 months
Balance sheet review – second quarter 2018
Comments
- Total assets of USD 7.5 billion with equity ratio of 37.4%, up from 36.3% last quarter
- Net interest bearing debt of USD 3.2 billion, up by USD 200 million driven by payment of the EUR 207 million fine from European Competition authorities and financing for the newbuilding delivered in May
- Continued high cash and liquidity position with USD 517 million in cash and USD 275 million in undrawn credit facilities
- USD 195 million in provision for antitrust case
The legal and financial restructuring project finalized on time
New legal and funding structure Comments
- Legal and funding structure consistent with business unit structure in place
- New 6-year USD 445 million term loan and credit facility to refinance vessel loans maturing in 2018 and 2019 and a revolving credit facility in WW Ocean
- Other loan agreements in WW Ocean have been harmonized with the new facility agreement
The group has access to a broad range of capital sources
Group interest bearing debt 30.06.2018 USD billion
Debt maturity profile following financial and legal restructuring project USD million
Wallenius Wilhelmsen ASA dividend policy
DIVIDEND POLICY
"Wallenius Wilhelmsen ASA's objective is to provide shareholders with a competitive return over time through a combination of rising value for the share and payment of dividend to the shareholders. The Board targets a dividend which over time shall constitute between 30 and 50% of the company's profit after tax. When deciding the size of the dividend, the Board will consider future capital requirements to ensure the implementation of its growth strategy as well as the need to ensure that the Group's financial standing remains warrantable at all times. Dividends will be declared in USD and paid out semi-annually"
FINANCIAL TARGETS Key ratios Target Equity ratio >35% Return on capital employed («ROCE») >8%
Market outlook
by Bjørnar Bukholm
T/C rates remain distressed despite a tightening supply-demand balance
Improving market fundamentals
Auto – steady growth MARKET TREND H&H1 – turning point Market balance – firmer
Investment highlights
Wallenius Wilhelmsen in brief Financial Performance Market outlook Summary and Q&A
25
Mining equipment demand continues to strengthen on replacement needs, but the geographical differences remain significant Global mining equipment deliveries and iron ore price1 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 1Q09 1Q13 Equipment deliveries (Indexed) 1Q14 Iron ore price (USD/t) 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12 1Q15 1Q16 1Q17 1Q18 Equipment deliveries Iron ore price Regional mining equipment deliveries Africa Latin America North America Europe Asia Oceania Europe and Asia remained the biggest destinations in the quarter, with volumes driven by intra-regional sourcing Oceania and Africa recorded the strongest growth from a year ago, while the sequential momentum was driven by Africa and Latin America All regions except Europe remain approximately 50% or more below peak Metal prices remained supportive of equipment demand in the quarter OEMs reported another quarter of strong y-o-y sales growth, with broad-based geographical demand and positive order development Global surface mining equipment deliveries continued to strengthen from last year, but edged down q-o-q as North American deliveries slowed sharply 1 000 2Q12 2Q14 2Q16 2Q18 -77 % 2Q12 2Q14 2Q16 2Q18 -56 % 600 2Q12 2Q14 2Q16 2Q18 -76 % 700 2Q12 2Q14 2Q16 2Q18 -64 % 2Q12 2Q14 2Q16 2Q18 -5 % 1 000 2Q12 2Q14 2Q16 2Q18 -48 % Wallenius Wilhelmsen in brief Financial Performance Market outlook Summary and Q&A
28
Construction remains strong, mining at a turning point Limited orderbook and ageing fleet
Source: 1The Parker Bay Company | Surface Mining Equipment Index (Indexed value of large surface mining equipment deliveries, 2007 = 100), MarketIndex | Average quarterly iron ore price (USD/t) (not adjusted for
trading days) 2The Parker Bay Company | Value of large surface mining equipment deliveries (USD million, avg. last 12 months)
Continued positive growth in auto trade volumes
Source: Wallenius Wilhelmsen Global Market Intelligence
Source: IHS Markit 1) Size of circle indicates auto exports in Q2 2018
1) High and heavy cargo (e.g. buses, trucks, agriculture, construction or mining machines)
Global auto sales and exports expected to keep strengthening
Global LV sales (import and domestic) Million units, growth p.a. 2014 14.4 69.0 15.5 2013 2015 2016 2017 2021F 80.4 2018F 2019F 2020F 2022F 17.0 89.4 2023F 83.5 95.9 106.4 +2.8% +2.1% Import Domestic +1.9 % CAGR 2018-2023 +2.1 %
Auto tariffs: Potential impact on Wallenius Wilhelmsen
- The ongoing trade tension and possibility of new tariffs for auto imports to the US represents a risk for Wallenius Wilhelmsen.
- Imports to the US (from outside NAFTA) were about 3.7 million units in 2017, majority of volumes imported from Europe, South Korea and Japan
- Wallenius Wilhelmsen is always prepared for changes in global deep-sea volumes and changing sourcing patterns
- The direct effect of 20-30% auto volume reduction is not material (<5% of EBITDA) as the group can reduce the fleet size and the profitability for auto volumes in certain trade lines is very low (e.g. Atlantic trade)
- However, the indirect effects of higher tariffs and hence reduced auto imports to the US could be more negative.
- Increased overcapacity might lead to further pressure on rates
- Slower growth for global economy might lead to volume decline
Construction machinery markets continue to be healthy globally
Market comment2
- Construction equipment demand recovered strongly in 2017, as OEM majors experienced growth in almost every single market globally
- Despite a more challenging macro narrative, machinery makers continued to report broad-based geographical demand and strong order development in the first half of this year
- Underlying construction activity and indicators remain strong in key markets, but there are geographical differences in the machinery outlook as momentum slows from the highs of last year, but double digit growth rates also expected for 2018
- US construction activity keeps strengthening with this year's recovery and rental industry data remain healthy and supportive of continued machinery demand
- Eurozone construction activity keeps expanding despite recent softening in key markets, construction confidence is at pre-recession highs, but a machinery market stabilization is expected following the strong recovery in recent years
- The Australian construction industry has expanded for 18 consecutive months, construction confidence remains healthy despite moderating
Source: 1 IHS Markit | World (major exporters excl. China (due to incomplete reporting)) construction and rolling mining equipment exports (equipment valued >20 kUSD ) (Avg. units L12M (last 12 months) and L3M (last 3 months) y-o-y %). Data cut-off: 04.2018 2Caterpillar Inc., Volvo AB, Komatsu Ltd., US Bureau of the Census, AIA, Dodge Data & Analytics, Eurostat, IHS Markit, AiGroup, NAB, Off-Highway Research
Mining equipment markets in early cycle on replacement needs, but the geographical differences are significant
Global mining equipment deliveries and iron ore price1 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 1Q16 Iron ore price (USD/t) Equipment deliveries (Indexed) 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12 1Q13 1Q14 1Q15 1Q17 1Q18 Equipment deliveries Iron ore price
Regional mining equipment deliveries
- Mining majors have generated healthy profits since the cycle bottom, and commodity prices remain supportive of equipment demand
- Balance sheet health and shareholder returns have been top priorities for the miners, but investments are picking up and ageing machinery fleets are in need of replacement
- Global machinery demand has strengthened y-o-y for eight consecutive quarters, but all regions except Europe remain about 50% or more below peak
- Source: 1The Parker Bay Company | Surface Mining Equipment Index (Indexed value of large surface mining equipment deliveries, 2007 = 100), MarketIndex | Average quarterly iron ore price (USD/t) (not adjusted for trading days) 2The Parker Bay Company | Value of large surface mining equipment deliveries (USD million, avg. last 12 months)
Agriculture machinery markets bottoming out, but remain mixed
Tractor sales and registrations2
- As commodity prices continue to be weighed heavily by crop surpluses and elevated inventories, replacement demand is key to the market stabilization and beginning recovery
- The North American market has started show early signs of recovery on replacement needs, despite trade spats dampening the outlook
- European farmers keep benefitting from a higher share of mixed farms amid warm-weather
- Australian sales prospects have softened due to drought worries after years of buoyancy
Source: 1 IHS Markit | World (major exporters excl. China (due to incomplete reporting)) agriculture equipment exports (equipment valued >20 kUSD ) (Avg. units L12M (last 12 months) and L3M (last 3 months) y-o-y %). Data cut-off: 04.2018 2T MA, KBA, Axema, ANFAVEA, AEA, Seaport| Registrations: UK (+50Hp), Germany (+70 kW), France (Standard tractors). Sales: Australia (+100Hp), Brazil (All tractors), US (+100Hp, 4WD) (Units YTD, y-o-y %)
Order books at historical lows, with limited fleet growth expected
Car carrier fleet orderbook # vessels equal or above 4000 CEU
- The current orderbook counts 24 vessels1 , and no new orders have been confirmed this year
- Five car carriers have been delivered in 2018
- Current markets and earnings do not justify new ordering activity
Global fleet development Fleet deliveries, removals and net growth (%)
- Net fleet growth expected to be around 1% p.a. until 2021, below expected cargo demand growth in the period
- To avoid negative net fleet growth in 2020 and 2021 replacement orders are required shortly as currently only 3 vessels scheduled for delivery in these years
Summary and Q&A
Investment highlights
Q&A