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VICINITY CENTRES TRUST — Investor Presentation 2017
Jun 6, 2017
65995_rns_2017-06-06_d6a47a90-591e-453f-92b3-0e699c0f2bec.pdf
Investor Presentation
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Halls Head Central, WA
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Perth Investor day and asset tours
7-8 June 2017
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Welcome and
overview
Angus McNaughton
CEO and Managing Director
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Galleria, WA
Perth Investor day and asset tours
Agenda
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WEDNESDAY 7 JUNE
- 12.15 Welcome and overview
Angus McNaughton CEO and Managing Director
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WA economy
Stephen Koukoulas Managing Director, Market Economics
WA portfolio
Michael O’Brien Chief Investment Officer
Leasing
Stuart Macrae EGM Leasing
Development update Carolyn Viney EGM Development
WA developments
Mandurah Forum James Fudge Project Director, WA Galleria Andrew Weston RGM Development, WA DFO Perth Stephen Beer Development Director, WA/SA 16.30 Presentations conclude Angus McNaughton CEO and Managing Director
17.30 Dinner
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THURSDAY 8 JUNE
- 8.00 Depart Crown Metropol
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Asset tour – Mandurah Forum
James Fudge Project Director, WA Richard Terhorst RGM Shopping Centres, WA Jacqueline McKenzie Centre Manager
Asset tour – Halls Head Central Stephen Beer Development Director, WA/SA Richard Terhorst RGM Shopping Centres, WA
Asset tour – Galleria
Andrew Weston RGM Development, WA Richard Terhorst RGM Shopping Centres, WA Mike Barrington Centre Manager Asset tour – Ellenbrook Central Stephen Beer Development Director, WA/SA Richard Terhorst RGM Shopping Centres, WA Graham Hahn Regional Manager, WA 15.00 Asset tour – DFO Perth Stephen Beer Development Director, WA/SA Sally Ockenden Development Manager, WA
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Vicinity Centres | Perth Investor day and asset tours | 7-8 June 2017
Our Strategy: simple and transparent business model with a single sector focus
Creating value and sustainable growth by owning, managing and developing quality Australian retail assets
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Group investment principles
Simple and transparent business model, with a single sector focus
Invest in quality Australian assets across the retail spectrum
85 centres under management
$24.5b assets under management
Focus on long-term value creation and sustainable earnings growth Strong balance sheet with access to diverse capital sources
Efficient cost structure and low management expense ratio
~8,700
tenants
~3,200 retailer relationships
Key financial objectives (‘through cycle’ basis)
Group level Target
Total return >9.0% p.a. Underlying EPS growth >3.0% p.a.
$17.8b 2.8m sqm moving annual turnover gross lettable area
Note: Data as at 31 December 2016.
Portfolio level Target Property level returns >8.5% p.a.
Development returns Initial yield 6% to 8+% Incremental IRR 10% to 15+%
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Vicinity Centres | Perth Investor day and asset tours | 7-8 June 2017
Active repositioning reflected in improved key metrics
Delivering on strategy since Vicinity’s formation in June 2015 has driven strong results
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| Delivered merger synergies and refinancing savings Improved portfolio quality Sold interests in 18 assets for $1.7b Acquired interests in five assets for ~$540m Completed six developments totalling ~$1b (Vicinity’s share is ~$500m with average initial yield of >7% and IRR of >11%) Strengthened balance sheet Standard and Poor’s increased credit rating to A/stable from A-/stable and Moody’s initiated at A2/stable Launched inaugural EMTN program with £350m issuance Extended debt duration from 3 years to ~5 years Since merger: 28% Average asset value 11% Net tangible assets per security 9% Specialty MAT/sqm |
Dec-16 Jun-15 |
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|---|---|---|
| Total asset value ($b) 14.9 14.3 |
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| Number of assets 75 88 |
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| Average asset value (100%) ($m) 306 239 |
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| Total MAT ($b) 16.1 16.9 |
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| Specialty MAT/sqm ($) 9,200 8,412 |
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| Occupancy rate (%) 99.4 98.9 |
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| Specialty occupancy cost (%) 14.6 15.4 |
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| WACR (%) 5.75 6.30 |
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| NTA ($) 2.73 2.45 |
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| Gearing (%) 24.0 28.0 |
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| Debt duration (years) 4.8 3.0 |
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| Credit rating - Standard and Poor’s - Moody’s A A2 A- not rated |
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Vicinity Centres | Perth Investor day and asset tours | 7-8 June 2017
Retail trends
Structural changes providing opportunities for Vicinity
Technology is changing the shopping centre landscape
Merging physical and digital consumer experiences
Increasing application of operational technology in-centre
Operating, leasing and development decisions to be enhanced by data insights
Consumer demand for better experiences
Consumer demand for lifestyle, services and food driving sales growth in these categories
Opportunities exist to enhance consumers’ shopping centre experience
Portfolio-wide connectivity will enable closer relationships with consumers
Divergence in retailer performance
Retailers with well-considered omni-channel strategies to benefit most Recent retailer administrations providing remixing opportunities
Continued strong demand from international retailers
New international flagships driving strong foot traffic and sales
Some impact on retailers who have not adapted to increased competition
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Chadstone, VIC
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Vicinity Centres | Perth Investor day and asset tours | 7-8 June 2017
2017 achievements
A productive calendar year to date
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Strong balance sheet
S&P have upgraded credit rating to A/stable
Issued $400m of AMTNs and repaid FY18 expiries
Improving portfolio quality
Acquired the remaining 25% interest in DFO South Wharf and new multi-deck car park completed
Development pipeline continues to enhance portfolio
Construction completed at Chadstone, with majority of backfill tenancies to be opened by the end of this month
Mandurah Forum redevelopment on track, first stage of retail to open end of July 2017
Commenced The Glen redevelopment, first stage due to open in late 2017
DFO South Wharf, VIC
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WA portfolio
Michael O’Brien Chief Investment Officer
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Ellenbrook Central, WA
WA portfolio overview
Deep and experienced local capability
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Long established presence in WA
The largest retail team in WA
Deep and experienced team of ~150 on the ground
Scale benefits with 12 leasing and 11 development executives, and dedicated marketing and tenancy design executives
Broad portfolio
16 assets across the retail spectrum in direct portfolio valued at $2.1b[1 ] DFO Perth retail construction commencing mid year
One Regional centre (Midland Gate) owned jointly by a Vicinity wholesale fund and mandate client
Three centres with leasing mandate for a third party
- Excluding DFO Perth.
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Vicinity Centres | Perth Investor day and asset tours | 7-8 June 2017
WA Regional shopping centre landscape
Planning changes have facilitated development opportunities to service under-supplied retail market
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Perth market is under serviced by Regional centres 33% less Regional centre space compared to national average[1 ]
Retail cap was lifted in 2010 and Sunday trading commenced in 2012
A number of projects have been mooted for development Current Regional centre offer is out dated Most centres have high levels of sales productivity All mooted projects may not be completed in this cycle
Vicinity’s assets are uniquely placed Distinct trade areas Opportunity to capture greater market share
- Source: Urbis, 2016.
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Ellenbrook Central
Ellenbrook Central acquisition
Significant value created through intensive asset management and development
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Acquired in December 2015 from ICWA for $220m[1] at 5.75% capitalisation rate, currently[2] valued at $236m
One of the fastest growing catchments in Australia
- Population growth forecast at 4.7% p.a. over next 10 years
Specialty[2] MAT/sqm of $8,929 and occupancy cost of 9.5% provide scope for further rental uplift
Intensive asset management has driven strong short term gains
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Average leasing spread of 6.1% since acquisition
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Strong growth in ancillary income
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Improved tenancy mix and lease terms
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Completed development of Aldi and five Bulky Goods stores for $15.2m with an initial yield of 7.9%
As anticipated, short term sales impact from opening of Woolworths at Aveley
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Excluding acquisition costs.
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At 31 December 2016.
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Source: MacroPlan Dimasi, 2015.
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Ellenbrook Central
Opportunities exist for further value creation
Future development potential to broaden centre’s offer
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Well positioned to take advantage of market opportunity
Further opportunities to improve tenant mix to align to market demand
Future development potential
Five hectares of adjacent vacant land Expanded offer could include:
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Discount department store
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Mini majors
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Indoor/outdoor food and café offers
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• Cinema and entertainment precinct
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Leasing
Stuart Macrae
EGM Leasing
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QueensPlaza, QLD
Leasing trends
Greater focus on leisure, dining and experience
International retailers continue to expand
New international flagships driving strong foot traffic and sales
Uniqlo, H&M, Zara and Sephora
Some impact on retailers who have not adapted to increased competition
Re-weighting of mid-tier apparel to food, health and wellbeing, general merchandise and services
Cosmetics and beauty continues to experience strong sales growth
Customers demand for better experiences
Consumer demand for lifestyle, services and food driving sales growth in these categories
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Emporium Melbourne, VIC
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Vicinity Centres | Perth Investor day and asset tours | 7-8 June 2017
Tenant administrations
Remixing opportunities created through retailer administrations
Some retailers more impacted than others in current sales environment
Performance varies across retail categories
Varying retailer performance within categories
Making good progress on sites handed back
Pumpkin Patch stores were being progressively changed over prior to going into administration
All Dick Smith stores have been re-leased
Strong re-leasing outcomes at DFO Outlet Centres and Emporium Melbourne Limited store impacts from administrations announced in the past three months
Administrations providing leasing opportunities
At >99% occupancy, tenant administrations allow for introduction of more productive retailers
Topshop has prime location at Emporium Melbourne
Close monitoring of underperforming tenants allows for early identification and proactive remixing
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DFO Homebush, NSW
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Development
update
Carolyn Viney
EGM Development
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Mandurah Forum, WA
Development achievements
Actively improving portfolio quality through development
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Chadstone, VIC
6 projects ~$1 billion [1 ] >7% initial yield >11% IRR
Halls Head Central, WA
Warriewood Square, NSW DFO South Wharf, VIC Colonnades, SA Cranbourne Park, VIC
1. 100% interest (Vicinity’s share: ~$500m). Includes the $666m (Vicinity’s share: $333m) Chadstone project.
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Rigorous controls govern the development planning process
A structured process and consistent approach ensures efficient and successful project delivery
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Vicinity Board/
Co-owner approval
Iterative process
Scope opportunity Concept planning Project validation Mobilisation Delivery
Ongoing 6-24+ months 6-15 months 6-36 months
Master planning Concept development Feasibility analysis Finalise design Control group oversees
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Local authority support Structure planning Finalise retail plan Construction tenders Safety, time, cost
and quality
Anchor tenant demand Preliminary feasibility Development Approval Satisfaction of all conditions
• Leasing
process precedent
Market research • Construction
Agree terms with anchors
Land availability
Project costing
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Board and senior management oversight and progressive approvals throughout process Board and senior management oversight and progressive approvals throughout process Board deep dives monthly External advice and consultancy External risk sign-offs
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Demonstrated development capability
Structured to support strategy execution
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Carolyn Viney
EGM Development
Jon Savell Stephen Beer Mark Kelley Josef Seidler
Development Development Regional General Manager Regional General Manager
Director Director Development Development
NSW/VIC WA/SA QLD Chadstone
Nicole Imberger
Jo Turner
Randy Galang General Manager
General Manager
National Design Director Product Development and
Majors Leasing
Development Strategy
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• 37 development executives
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Vicinity Centres | Perth Investor day and asset tours | 7-8 June 2017
Investing to create long-term value
Extensive $2.8b development pipeline (Vicinity share: $1.3b) provides significant opportunities
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$m
Vicinity share Partner share Total
333 666
Chadstone Retail and Office, VIC
175 350
Mandurah Forum, WA
230 460
Current The Glen, VIC
75 150
DFO Perth, WA
100
Midland Gate, WA
0
Roselands, NSW 1 TBA
Estimated FY18
60 120
commencements Chadstone Hotel, VIC
2 350 700
Galleria, WA
Estimated FY19 75 300
The Myer Centre Brisbane, QLD
commencements
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Note: Timing and costs of identified projects are indicative only and may change as projects advance.
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Master planning continues.
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Progressing through project validation phase, with total project cost expected to be <$700m.
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The Glen
The Glen redevelopment underway
Major redevelopment to capitalise on high income trade area and capture escape expenditure
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| Key metrics Cost1 $460m Initial yield >6% Expected IRR >10% 2020 target completion +18,900 sqm GLA |
Key metrics Cost1 $460m Initial yield >6% Expected IRR >10% 2020 target completion +18,900 sqm GLA |
|---|---|
| Expected IRR | >10% |
$460m[1] major redevelopment
First stage fully leased and due to open in late 2017
- Introduction of Aldi and relocated Woolworths to anchor fresh food market hall with Coles and over 60 specialty stores
Latest format David Jones and new contemporary food gallery with casual dining hub and an outdoor dining precinct
Artist’s impression
Complete refurbishment of existing centre
Strong trade area
Above average incomes, low levels of household debt and above average apparel expenditure
Residential developer appointed
Contract for sale of residential air rights entered into, redevelopment costs[ 1 ] reduced from $490m to $460m
Over 500 apartments across three towers, construction expected to commence in early to mid-2019 and complete within 24 months
Artist’s impression
- 100% interest. Vicinity’s share is 50%.
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The Glen
Lower ground level precinct plan
Introduction of Aldi and relocated Woolworths to anchor fresh food market hall with Coles and a number of specialty stores
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The Glen
Ground level precinct plan
New format David Jones, contemporary food gallery, lifestyle and fashion
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Chadstone
Chadstone retail and office development
Delivering a world-class retail, dining and entertainment experience
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LEGOLAND® Discovery Centre
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Australia’s leading retail offer strongly embraced by consumers Largest luxury precinct in Australia
Leading international flagship stores – H&M, Sephora, Uniqlo and Zara Victoria’s number one performing HOYTS
Annual visitations up 17%[1 ]
MAT up 14%[1]
Maintained highest MAT for an Australian shopping centre for 16 consecutive years
Annual sales >$1.6b[1 ] with only partial year sales for the expanded centre
LEGOLAND® Discovery Centre opened in April 2017
Flagship attraction
Attracts high traffic volumes especially on weekends
Majority of backfill tenancies to be opened this month
Further opportunities to create value through master planning
- For the 12 months to 30 April 2017.
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Vicinity Centres | Perth Investor day and asset tours | 7-8 June 2017
Chadstone
Chadstone – the evolution continues
High quality hotel offer to service business and tourist markets
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Estimated development cost $120m (Vicinity share: $60m)
Targeting 4 to 4.5 stars with full service amenity
and conference facilities
Proposal for 250 rooms over 13 levels
Focused on business and tourist markets
Discussions underway with hotel operators
Target commencement in FY18
Artist’s impression
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Chadstone
Chadstone – the evolution continues – proposed hotel
Prime location at Chadstone Shopping Centre, close to Melbourne’s business, education and health science precincts
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Artist’s impression
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Artist’s impression
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Mandurah
Forum
James Fudge
Project Director, WA
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Mandurah Forum
Mandurah Forum
Well located centre in one of Australia’s fastest growing catchments
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Source: Nearmap
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Mandurah Forum
The opportunity
Transform Mandurah Forum into one of WA’s leading Major Regional shopping centres
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Dominant ~40,000 sqm Regional centre in a captive market being expanded to 64,500 sqm Major Regional centre
Mandurah’s total trade area population growth remains high at 2.6%, compared to WA average of 1.0% and national average of 1.4%[1]
Located in one of the fastest growing catchments in Australia
No.1 for total MAT in ‘Little Guns’ survey since 2003[2]
Last redeveloped in 1995
Existing centre traded strongly , 36% above comparable centres[3 ]
Sales leakage due to limited retail offer and out-dated presentation
Redevelopment to capture growth opportunity and sales leakage through introduction of department store and improved retail offer
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12 months to 30 June 2016.
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Up to development commencement at 31 December 2015.
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Specialty sales per sqm, compared to Urbis comparable centre average.
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Perth
72km
North
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Vicinity Centres | Perth Investor day and asset tours | 7-8 June 2017
Mandurah Forum
The market
Strong population and retail spending growth
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Leading market position
19.1% market share of trade area[1 ]
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Strong population growth
~95,800 people in trade area, forecast to grow at 2.8% p.a. through to 2028[1]
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Excellent transport infrastructure Serviced by Kwinana freeway and suburban rail line from Perth
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Sizeable tourist market Over 1.4m visitor nights and 1.9m day trippers annually[1]
Strong trade area retail spending growth Forecast to grow at ~6% p.a. through to 2028[1]
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- Source: Urbis, 2014. Trade area refers to Main Trade Area.
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Artist’s impression
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Mandurah Forum
The project
Development positioned to capture additional segments of the trade area
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| Key metrics Cost1 $350m Initial yield >6% Expected IRR >10% Mid-2018 project completion +26,000 sqm GLA |
Key metrics Cost1 $350m Initial yield >6% Expected IRR >10% Mid-2018 project completion +26,000 sqm GLA |
|---|---|
| Expected IRR | >10% |
New 850 space multi-deck car park opened in December 2016
- Centre to have >3,000 spaces on completion
First retail stage to open end of July 2017, on track to be fully leased Completion remains on schedule for mid-2018
Construction on program
Complete centre transformation
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GLA increases to 64,500 sqm
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Expanding from a Sub Regional to Regional shopping centre
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Brand new David Jones and Target
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Upgraded Coles and Kmart
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Total stores to increase by 80 to over 220 on completion
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New food court with adjoining play area, fresh food market hall and alfresco dining precinct
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- 100% interest. Vicinity’s share is 50%.
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Mandurah Forum
Floor plan and construction staging
Desirable ‘race track’ configuration to improve customer experience and navigation
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Stage 5 under construction Stage 4 under construction
Stage 1 complete
December 2016
Stage 3 under construction
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Stage 2 opening
end of July 2017
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Mandurah Forum
Precinct plan
Well precincted layout to enhance the customer experience
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Galleria
Andrew Weston
RGM Development, WA
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Artist’s impression
Galleria
The dominant Major Regional centre of north east Perth
Strongly trading, well-located centre in growing catchment
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Trade area is large and growing (22% of Perth’s population) Total trade area forecast to increase 2.0% p.a. from 453,000 (2016) to 553,000 (2026)[1 ]
Strong trading performance of existing centre[2] Specialty MAT/sqm of $10,996
Limited retail competition from Perth CBD
Strong long-term fundamentals
Well-defined catchment with limited competition
Closest Regional centre to affluent inner north eastern suburbs
Centre profile
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80,800 sqm Major Regional centre
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8km north east of Perth
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Myer, Kmart, Target, Coles, Woolworths and Greater Union, and over 170 specialty stores
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Last redeveloped in 2008
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Source: Urbis, 2016. 2. At 31 December 2016.
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Source: Urbis
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Galleria
The opportunity
Galleria has a large, diverse trade area with strong demand from families
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Opportunity to increase market share with expanded and more modern offer
Council supportive of increasing the residential density in the immediate surrounds of the centre
Sufficient land to expand centre
Customers view the Perth retail offer as generic
Current DA approval allows significant expansion over time
Source: Nearmap
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Galleria
Progressing through project validation phase
Transform Galleria to become one of the leading retail destinations in Perth
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$700m DA approval FY18 redevelopment[1 ] obtained target commencement
Agreement reached to relocate stormwater basin
Unlocks more desirable layout and design options to expand and improve the development footprint
Proposed major redevelopment to reinforce Galleria as the leading retail destination in north east Perth
DA approval obtained
Progressing through project validation phase
Source: Nearmap
- Progressing through project validation phase, with overall project cost expected to be <$700m (100% interest, Vicinity’s share is 50%).
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DFO Perth
Stephen Beer
Development Director, WA/SA
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Artist’s impression
DFO Perth
The opportunity
Introduce proven DFO Outlet Centre format to under supplied market
Building on Vicinity’s DFO expertise and strong tenant relationships
Perth has the lowest Outlet Centre floorspace per capita[1,2]
Trade area[3] includes ~80% of Perth’s population and average income per capita[1] is 10.7% above Australian average
1.6m 17,000+ 13.8m Total trade area Airport workers Passengers[4]
2.0% 3.1% Population growth[1,5 ] Spending growth[1,5]
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Source: Urbis, 2016. 2. Compared to other Australian capital cities. 3. Total trade area.
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Source: Perth Airport Pty Ltd for 2015/2016. 5. 10-year annual forecast for main trade area.
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Source: Urbis
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Vicinity Centres | Perth Investor day and asset tours | 7-8 June 2017
DFO Perth
The project
Retail construction to commence in the coming weeks
| Key metrics Cost1 $150m Initial yield >10% Expected IRR >15% 2018 target completion 24,000 sqm GLA |
Key metrics Cost1 $150m Initial yield >10% Expected IRR >15% 2018 target completion 24,000 sqm GLA |
|---|---|
| Expected IRR | >15% |
Joint venture to develop the first DFO in Perth
-
120 specialty stores
-
Over 1,500 car spaces
Reinforces Vicinity’s market leadership position in Outlet Centres
Centrally located adjacent to Perth Airport and near major arterial roads Greenfield development enables optimisation of design and construction
Site works due to complete mid June 2017
Leasing demand strong, leveraging extensive retailer relationships
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low res diagram
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Artist’s impression
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- Total cost including a lump sum rental payment. Vicinity’s share is approximately $75m.
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DFO Perth
Prime location
Excellent exposure adjacent to main north/south highway and airport entry
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TONKIN HIGHWAY
FUTURE
PUBLIC TRANSPORT
MAIN AIRPORT ENTRY AUTHORITY CAR PARKING
FUTURE
CONVENIENCE RETAIL
FUTURE FAST FOOD /
SERVICE STATION SITE FUTURE OFFICE PRECINCT
Artist’s impression
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DFO Perth
Optimal centre design supports strong precinct layout
Well-known brands offering quality stock at discounted prices and a significant food offer
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Vicinity Centres | Perth Investor day and asset tours | 7-8 June 2017
DFO Perth
Vibrant and engaging mall design
Inspired by location and surrounding natural environment
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Artist’s impression
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Vicinity Centres | Perth Investor day and asset tours | 7-8 June 2017
DFO Perth
Significant food offer
Contemporary food and dining options for DFO customers and Airport passengers and workers
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Artist’s impression
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Vicinity Centres | Perth Investor day and asset tours | 7-8 June 2017
Contact details and disclaimer
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For further information please contact:
Penny Berger Head of Investor Relations T +61 2 8229 7760 E [email protected]
Disclaimer
This document is a presentation of general background information about the activities of Vicinity Centres (ASX:VCX) current at the date of this presentation unless otherwise noted. It is information in a summary form and does not purport to be complete. It is not intended to be relied upon as advice to investors or potential investors and does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular investor. These should be considered, with or without professional advice, when deciding if an investment objective is appropriate.
This presentation contains certain forecast financial information along with forward-looking statements in relation to the financial performance and strategy of Vicinity Centres. The words ‘anticipate’, ‘believe’, ‘expect’, ‘project’, ‘forecast’, ‘estimate’, ‘outlook’, ‘upside’, ‘likely’, ‘intend’, ‘should’, ‘could’, ‘may’, ‘target’, ‘plan’ and other similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements. Indications of, and guidance on, future earnings, financial position, performance and distributions are also forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statements included in this presentation are based on information available to Vicinity Centres as at the date of this presentation. Such forward-looking statements are not representations, assurances, predictions or guarantees of future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by the forwardlooking statements and involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties, assumptions and other factors, many of which are beyond the control of Vicinity Centres. The actual results of Vicinity Centres may differ materially from the anticipated results, performance or achievements expressed, projected or implied by these forward-looking statements and you should not place undue reliance on such forward-looking statements.
Except as required by law or regulation (including the ASX Listing Rules), Vicinity Centres disclaims any obligation to update these forward-looking statements.
Copyright and confidentiality
The copyright of this document and the Information contained therein is vested in the Vicinity Centres group of companies. This document should not be copied, reproduced or redistributed without prior consent.
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Vicinity Centres | Perth Investor day and asset tours | 7-8 June 2017