Unipol — Investor Presentation 2016

Feb 12, 2016

Bologna, 12 February 2016

Notice

This document has been prepared by Unipol Gruppo Finanziario S.p.A. and by UnipolSai Assicurazioni S.p.A. solely for information purposes in the context of the presentation of its FY15 preliminary results.

The content of this document does not constitute a recommendation in relation to any financial instruments issued by the Company or by other companies of the Group, nor it constitutes or forms part of any offer or invitation to sell, or any solicitation to purchase any financial instruments issued by the Company or by other companies of the Group, nor it may be relied upon for any investment decision by its addressees.

The FY15 data contained herein are preliminary in nature and refer to the date hereof and, therefore, may be subject to further variations.

Please note that these preliminary data are subject to review by the Independent Auditors that still have to complete their necessary analysis in order to release their report.

The FY15 final results will be approved by the Board of Directors scheduled on 10 March 2016 and will be disclosed to the market according to, and in the terms set forth by, the applicable laws and regulations.

Unless otherwise specified all the figures reported in this presentation are on a consolidated basis.

The data pertaining to UGF are on a grey background and the related charts are in the shades of blue. The data pertaining to UnipolSai are on a pale blue background and the related charts are in the shades of red.

• Consolidated preliminary results
• Insurance business
• Non-Life insurance business
• Life insurance business
• Banking business
• Real Estate and diversified companies
• Financial investments
• Solvency, equity and dividends

2013-2015 Business Plan: achievements Appendix

Key Performance Indicators

€m

UNIPOLSAI			UNIPOL GRUPPO FINANZIARIO
	FY14	FY15P	D %
Consolidated net profit	783	738	-5.8%		Consolidated net profit	505	579
Proforma cons. net profit a	783	821	+4.9%		Proforma cons. net profit a
Group net profit	740	711	-3.8%		Group net profit	192
Proforma Group net profit a	740	793	+7.2%		Proforma Group net profit a
EPS b (€)	0,28	0,25	-9.8%		EPS b (€)	0.27	0.38
Proforma EPS (€)	0,28	0,28	+0.6%		Proforma EPS (€)
c Premium income (direct business)	15,329	13,982	-8.8%		Premium income c (direct business)	17,204	16,476
o/w Non-Life	7,744	7,334	-5.3%		o/w Non-Life	8,289	7,883
o/w Life	7,584	6,648	-12.3%		o/w Life	8,915	8,593
Ratio d Combined	94.6%	94.6%	0.0 p.p.		Ratio d Combined	94.0%	93.9%
	FY14	FY15P	D %
Solvency I	1.66x	1.77x	+0.11x		Solvency I
Total equity	6,635	6,615	-0.3%		Total equity	8,440	8,445
Shareholders' equity	6,295	6,278	-0.3%		Shareholders' equity	5,691	5,524
BVPS e (€)	2.37	2.22	-6.5%		BVPS e (€)	7.93	7.70

505 579 Consolidated net profit +14.6% Proforma cons. net profit a 505 738 +46.1% Group net profit 192 272 +41.3% Proforma Group net profit a 192 396 +105.9% EPS b (€) 0.27 0.38 +41.3% Proforma EPS (€) 0.27 0.55 +105.9%	FY14	FY15P	D %
c Premium income 17,204 16,476 (direct business) -4.2%
o/w Non-Life 8,289 7,883 -4.9%
o/w Life 8,915 8,593 -3.6%
Combined Ratio d 94.0% 93.9% -0.1 p.p.
FY14 FY15P D %
Solvency I 1.69x 1.70x +0.01x
Total equity 8,440 8,445 +0.1%
Shareholders' equity 5,691 5,524 -2.9%
BVPS e (€) 7.93 7.70 -2.9%

^a Proforma profit before DTA writedown following decrease in the IRES rate to 24% from 27.5% as provided for by the 2016 Budget Law

^b Group profit/no. of total shares at year-end

^d Net of reinsurance (expense ratio calculated on earned premiums)

^e Shareholders' equity / no. of total shares at year-end

Consolidated results by business area

UNIPOLSAI
		FY14		FY15P
	Pre-tax result	Net result	Pre-tax result	Net result
Non-Life	954	669	813	578
Life	254	161	344	237
Other	-66	-46	-113	-78
Consolidated profit	1,142	783	1,044	738
Proforma cons. profit a	1,142	783	1,044	821
Group profit		740		711
Proforma Group profit a		740		793

UNIPOL GRUPPO FINANZIARIO

	FY14		FY15P
	Pre-tax result	Net result	Pre-tax result	Net result
Non-Life	1,009	699	907	636
Life	274	171	343	235
Banking business b	-297	-225	-94	-71
Other	-186	-139	-198	-222
Consolidated profit	801	505	958	579
Proforma cons. profit a	801	505	958	738
Group profit		192		272
a Proforma Group profit		192		396

€m

Operating figures.

^a Proforma result before DTA writedown following decrease in the IRES rate to 24% from 27.5% as provided for by the 2016 Budget Law b Including provisions set aside by the holding company on bank loans part of the indemnity agreement.

• Consolidated preliminary results
• Insurance business
• Non-Life insurance business
• Life insurance business
• Banking business
• Real Estate and diversified companies
• Financial investments
• Solvency, equity and dividends

2013-2015 Business Plan: achievements Appendix

Direct insurance income

€m

• Consolidated preliminary results
• Insurance business
• Non-Life insurance business
• Life insurance business
• Banking business
• Real Estate and diversified companies
• Financial investments
• Solvency, equity and dividends

2013-2015 Business Plan: achievements

Appendix

Non-Life – Direct premium income

€m

UNIPOLSAI

UNIPOL GRUPPO FINANZIARIO

Premiums by company

	FY14	FY15P
UnipolSai Group	7,744	7,334
Linear	172	145
Unisalute	270	301
Arca	103	103
Unipol Gruppo Fin.	8,289	7,883

Operating figures.

2014 income and the associated variations are on a like-for-like basis, net of the portfolio sale to Allianz..

Including the effect of this disposal, the overall variation in Non-Life premium income would be -12.9% for UnipolSai and -12.1% for Unipol Gruppo Finanziario

Non-Life – Combined Ratio net of reinsurance

UNIPOL GRUPPO FINANZIARIO

Loss Ratio Expense Ratio

UnipolSai S.p.A. – MV TPL technical indicators, direct business

UNIPOLSAI S.p.A.

MV TPL Combined Ratio

	FY14	FY15P
Direct business	92.9%	93.6%
Expense ratio a	21.9%	23.4%
commissions/premiums	12.4%	13.3%
other operating exp./premiums	9.5%	10.1%
Loss ratio b (incl. OTI)	71.0%	70.2%

	var.
Other MV TPL indicators	vs FY14 c
Total portfolio	-1.1%
retail	-1.1%
fleets	-1.9%
Portfolio average premium	-6.7%
No. of claims reported (followed-up passive claims)	-5.2%
Frequency	-0.13 p.p.

Operating figures.

^a Operating expenses/written premiums from direct business (before reinsurance) ^b Claims charges/earned premiums from direct business (before reinsurance)

^c Variations calculated excluding figures pertaining to agencies ceded to Allianz

Non-Life – Insurance sector extra UnipolSai

ar ASSICURAZIONI ONLINE	ute SPECIALISTI NELL'ASSICURAZIONE SALUTE	v ווחכ SICLID ARCA

	FY14	FY15P	D %
Premium income	545	549	0.7%
MV	200	169	-15.5%
Accident + Health	307	340	10.5%
Other	38	40	6.6%
CoR direct business	86.1%	88.8%	2.7 p.p.
Expense ratio	18.4%	19.7%	1.3 p.p.
Loss ratio (incl. OTI)	67.7%	69.1%	1.4 p.p.
IAS net result	79	65	-17.0%

€m

• Consolidated preliminary results
• Insurance business
• Non-Life insurance business
• Life insurance business
• Banking business
• Real Estate and diversified companies
• Financial investments
• Solvency, equity and dividends

2013-2015 Business Plan: achievements

Appendix

Life – Direct income

€m

UNIPOLSAI

Income by company

	FY14	FY15P
	3,696	3,418
Popolare Vita+Lawr. Life	3,664	3,043
Other companies	224	187
UnipolSai Group	7,584	6,648

Income by channel

	FY15P
Agencies, head office and brokers	46%
Bancassurance	51%
Other	3%

UNIPOL GRUPPO FINANZIARIO

Income by company

	FY14	FY15P
UnipolSai Group	7,584	6,648
Arca Vita a	1,330	1,946
Unipol Gruppo Fin.	8,915	8,593

Income by channel

	FY15P
Agencies, head office and brokers	36%
Bancassurance	62%
Other	2%

Life – Net inflows

UNIPOL GRUPPO FINANZIARIO

FY15P

Life – Insurance sector extra UnipolSai

€m

	FY14	FY15P	D %
Premium income	1,329	1,943	46.2%
Traditional	1,214	1,551	27.7%
Unit/Index linked	92	367	299.7%
Other	23	25	8.7%
IAS net result	45	34	-24.3%

Sales network 3,084 branches

• Consolidated preliminary results
• Insurance business
• Non-Life insurance business
• Life insurance business

• Banking business

• Real Estate and diversified companies
• Financial investments
• Solvency, equity and dividends

2013-2015 Business Plan: achievements

Appendix

Banking business – KPI

€m

	FY14	FY15P	D %
Gross operating income	436	357	-18.3%
o/w interest income	255	234	-8.5%
o/w non-interest income c	181	123	-32.1%
Provisions on loans	-203	-52	n.s.
d Pre-tax result	-101	6	n.s.
Net result d	-83	5	n.s.	CET1 ratio 17.8%
e Cost / Income	65.2%	77.9%	12.7 p.p.
Provisions on impaired loans (UGF)	-196	-100	n.s.
Total impaired loans (UGF+Unipol Banca)	-399	-152	n.s.
Total impaired loans coverage ratio	42.3%	44.5%	+2.1 p.p.

UGF Banking Group CET1 ratio

The banking business includes Unipol Banca and its subsidiaries.

^a Excluding collateralized deposits with Cassa Compensazione e Garanzia.

^b Net of provisions at UGF S.p.A. level.

^c Operating figure including reclassification of income from loans disposal

^d Profit for UGF consolidated banking sector

^e Operating costs are net of the effect of the Contribuzione al Fondo di Risoluzione

Banking business – Focus on impaired loans

€m

	FY14			FY15P
	net loans	gross loans	coverage ratio	net loans	gross loans	coverage ratio
Bad loans	1,136	2,548	55.4%	1,129	2,644	57.3%
Unlikely-to-pay	1,050	1,295	18.9%	925	1,145	19.2%
Past due	77	81	4.6%	122	129	5.1%
Total impaired loans	2,263	3,923	42.3%	2,176	3,918	44.5%

Break-down of overall impaired loans portfolio

• Consolidated preliminary results
• Insurance business
• Non-Life insurance business
• Life insurance business
• Banking business
• Real Estate and diversified companies
• Financial investments
• Solvency, equity and dividends

2013-2015 Business Plan: achievements

Appendix

Real Estate

Operating figures

a Including capex, purchase, fixed assets in progress and equity for JVs

^b No. 95 deeds, sale to Qatar Holding of the stakes in RE funds included in the Porta Nuova project and sale of the company Punta di Ferro c Including exchange variation and operations on RE funds and other associated companies

Diversified companies

• Consolidated preliminary results
• Insurance business
• Non-Life insurance business
• Life insurance business
• Banking business
• Real Estate and diversified companies
• Financial investments
• Solvency, equity and dividends

2013-2015 Business Plan: achievements

Appendix

Financial investments

Income from financial investments

	FY15P
		Non-Life		Life		Total
	€m	yield%	€m	yield%	€m	yield%
Coupons and dividends	422	3.1%	1,127	3.7%	1,548	3.5%
Unrealised gains and losses	-41	-0.3%	46	0.1%	5	0.0%
Sub-total	381	2.8%	1,173	3.8%	1,553	3.5%
Gains	316	2.3%	327	1.1%	643	1.5%
Total	697	5.1%	1,500	4.9%	2,196	5.0%

UNIPOLSAI

UNIPOL GRUPPO FINANZIARIO

	FY15P
	Non-Life		Life		Total
	€m	yield%	€m	yield%	€m	yield%
Coupons and dividends	446	3.1%	1,293	3.7%	1,745	3.4%
Unrealised gains and losses	-41	-0.3%	50	0.1%	9	0.0%
Sub-total	405	2.8%	1,343	3.8%	1.754	3.4%
Gains	307	2.1%	309	0.9%	619	1.2%
Total	712	4.9%	1,652	4.7%	2,372	4.6%

• Consolidated preliminary results
• Insurance business
• Non-Life insurance business
• Life insurance business
• Banking business
• Real Estate and diversified companies
• Financial investments
• Solvency, equity and dividends

2013-2015 Business Plan: achievements Appendix

Total equity and AFS reserve

€m

Total equity - roll forward

AFS reserve variation

UNIPOLSAI UNIPOL GRUPPO FINANZIARIO

FY15P capital soundness indicators

€bn

Dividend estimate 2015

UNIPOLSAI

	2014 DPS (€)	Total dividends	2015 DPS (€)	Total dividends
Ordinary	0.175	398	0.150	424
Savings A	6.500	8
Savings B	0.204	77
Total		483		424

UNIPOL GRUPPO FINANZIARIO

	2014 DPS (€)	Total dividends	2015 DPS (€)	Total dividends
Ordinary	0.170	74	0.180	128
Preference	0.190	52
Total		126		128

29

• Consolidated preliminary results
• Insurance business
• Non-Life insurance business
• Life insurance business
• Banking business
• Real Estate and diversified companies
• Financial investments
• Solvency, equity and dividends

2013-2015 Business Plan: achievements

Appendix

2015P results vs. Plan targets

€m

		UnipolSai		Unipol
Key indicators	FY15P	FY15 Plan	FY15P	FY15 Plan
Premium income (€bn)	14.0	15.6	16.5	17.0
Combined ratio net of reins.	94.6%	94.3%	93.9%	-
Investment yield	5.0%	4.2%	4.6%	4.2%
Net profit	738	814	579	852
a Proforma net profit	821		738
Solvency I ratio	177%	~180%	170%	~180%
Dividend payout	b 63% b	~60-80%	b 78% b	~60-80%
Integration synergies	390	349	390	349

Premium income and financial investment yield: final results vs targets

€m

13-15 Plan 3.9% 3.3% 13-15 5.0% 4.5% FY15P 5.1% 4.9% FY14 4.8% 4.4% FY13 5.2% 3.9% Financial investment yield

UNIPOL GRUPPO FINANZIARIO

Non-Life Life

Non-Life Life

UNIPOLSAI

avg.

avg.

Consolidated and Group net results and dividends: final results vs. targets

€m

UNIPOLSAI

UNIPOL GRUPPO FINANZIARIO

^a accrued negative impact of the banking business €762m ^b payout on company profit

33

Integration actions

Integration actions completed…

… with synergies above expectations …

Business Plan target

34

Sale of the business unit

… along with management of the process to sell the business unit to Allianz

Process started in January 2013

Implementation completed in 2014 alongside industrial integration actions

• Consolidated preliminary results
• Insurance business
• Non-Life insurance business
• Life insurance business
• Banking business
• Real Estate and diversified companies
• Financial investments
• Solvency, equity and dividends

2013-2015 Business Plan: achievements

Appendix

Group structure

Disclaimer

Maurizio Castellina, Senior Executive responsible for drawing up the corporate accounts of Unipol Gruppo Finanziario S.p.A. and UnipolSai Assicurazioni S.p.A., declares, in accordance with Article 154-bis, para 2, of the 'Consolidated Finance Act', that the accounting information reported in this document correspond to the document contents, books and accounting records.

Investor Relations Contacts

investor.relations@unipol.it	investor.relations@unipolsai.it
Silvia Tonioli	Tel +39 051 507 2371
Carlo Latini	Tel +39 051 507 6333
Giuseppe Giuliani	Tel +39 051 507 7218
Laura Marrone	Tel +39 051 507 2183
Eleonora Roncuzzi	Tel +39 051 507 7063
Giancarlo Lana	Tel +39 011 66 57 642
Adriano Donati (IRO)	Tel +39 051 507 7063