Skip to main content

AI assistant

Sign in to chat with this filing

The assistant answers questions, extracts KPIs, and summarises risk factors directly from the filing text.

Unicredit Earnings Release 2022

Jul 27, 2022

4272_ip_2022-07-27_2934d172-bc7c-48ab-9340-037644169bd2.pdf

Earnings Release

Open in viewer

Opens in your device viewer

UniCredit Unlocked

Delivering purpose-led growth for the long term

2Q22 & 1H22 Group Results Milan, 27 July 2022

Excellent results, well positioned to face macro headwinds

Outstanding results: strongest 1H and 2Q in at least a decade, delivering across all levers and businesses ahead of plan

Russia de-risked: at minimum cost with disciplined management

Well positioned for deterioration in the macro – including a recession – given capital strengths, credit quality, conservative provisioning, overlays

On track for 2021/22 shareholder distributionswith significant capacity to continue

Embedded ESG throughout the Group with tangible results and delivering on our purpose

We are Unlocking the value of UniCredit focusing on industrial transformation and on the levers under our own control

Russia: disciplined management of exposures resulting in solid capital position

CET1r well above UniCredit Unlocked target range and up Q/Q even in the pro-forma 'extreme loss' scenario

1. Delta since 8th March excluding change in FX hedging and additional intragroup exposures (as per page 3 of 1Q22 market presentation)

2. Export Credit Agency guarantees of c.0.6bn

3. Pro-forma for 1.6bn (or -55bps as of 4Q21) share buy back 2021 (1st tranche) 3 6. Including FX impact on RWAs

  • 4. Source: Electronic Broking System (EBS)
  • 5. For local participation data available as of end of prior quarter

Ahead of Unlocked despite 'slowdown', well prepared for potential 'recession'

c.150 bps

16 bn

c.4.3 bn

30-35 bps

Confirmed full UniCredit Unlocked distribution plan under 'slowdown' scenario, and majority under 'recession' scenario

Updated: 'slowdown' scenario

UniCredit Unlocked

Updated: 'recession' scenario

More conservative assumptions

Solid foundations with which to face macro shocks

All data Group excl. Russia

1. GDP growth and inflation of Group footprint are calculated based on a GDP and inflation weighted average of the respective countries (excl. Russia)

4 2. Distribution subject to supervisory and shareholder approvals

2022 figures Group excl. Russia. Stated figures for previous years

  • 1. Source: EBA transparency exercise and publicly available data; as of FY21; Selected peers: BBVA, Banco BPM, BNP Paribas, Commerzbank, Credit Agricole S.A., Deutsche bank, Erste Bank Group, ING, Intesa San Paolo, Raiffeisen Bank International, Santander, Société Générale; UniCredit data as of 2Q22 Group incl. Russia for comparison purposes
  • 2. Performed assessment on selected Enterprises portfolio. See Annex for additional details. Total EaD reported including only Enterprises and Individuals segments, Enterprises split based on managerial industry clustering
  • 5 3. Corporates & SMEs belonging to energy intensive sectors and/or those exposed to supply chain constraints, before bottom-up exposure considerations and potential government support measures

Uniquely positioned to face macro headwinds…

4.7

2022 figures Group excl. Russia except for CET1 ratio; Stated figures for previous years

1. CET1r FL from publicly available data; Peer group: BBVA, Banco BPM, BNP Paribas, Commerzbank, Credit Agricole S.A., Deutsche bank, Erste Bank Group, ING, Intesa San Paolo, Raiffeisen Bank International, Santander, Société Générale 6 Capital adjusted at 13% CET1r.

  • 2. Average of quarters Y/Y growth rate, calculated on a like for like basis.
  • 3. For ROTE @13%: Net Income adjusted for one-offs as per market presentation.

Delivering excellent results, best first half and 2Q in at least a decade

3 LEVERS

Largely under management control giving confidence in our strategic plan

RESULTS
2Q22 1H22
excl. Russia excl. Russia
In million Y/Y Group 1H/1H Group
Net Revenue 4.352 +12% 4.782 9.088 +10% 8.515
o/w Revenue 4.461 +5% 4.780 9.248 +5% 9.796
o/w LLP –108 −72% 2 −161 −70% −1.281
Total Costs −2.288 −4.4% −2.358 −4.577 −3.4% −4.702
GOP 2.172 +17% 2.422 4.671 +15.3% 5.094
Net Profit1 1.482 +67% 1.818 2.672 +59% 2.092
RoTE 13.0% +5p.p. 15.1% 11.7% +4p.p. 8.7%
RoTE
@13%
15.7% +6 p.p 18.0% 14.1% +5 pp 10.4%
C/I Ratio 51.3% -5p.p. 49.3% 49.5% -4p.p. 48.0%
CET1r 15.73% 15.73%

Completed first 2021 share buyback tranche of 1.6bn, equal to 7.4% of share capital Submitted remaining 1.0bn to ECB for approval2

All figures related to Group excl. Russia except CET1r, or unless otherwise stated

7 1. Net Profit adjusted for AT1 and Cashes 2. Distribution subject to supervisory and shareholder approvals

Client Solutions diversified offering as key engine for organic revenue growth

We are performing above UniCredit Unlocked and delivering across all our levers

All regions delivering above UniCredit Unlocked and at record levels

9

Introductory remarks

Financial highlights – S. Porro, CFO

Closing remarks

10

2Q22 financial highlights

  • 2021 first share buyback tranche of 1.6bn completed with all shares cancelled on 19/07/2022 (162m shares equal to 7.4% of share capital)
  • Executing strategy to reduce NPEs:
    • disposal of c.2.0bn of UTP portfolio
    • disposal of c.1.3bn of NPL portfolio
    • signed partnership with Prelios for management of UTP loans in Italy
  • EGM in 3Q22 for shareholder authorisation to increase the number of shares to be purchased for 2021 second share buyback2tranche of 1.0bn
Key recent financial events
2Q22
vs 1Q22
vs 2Q21
Net Revenue
4.4bn
-8%
+12%
o/w Revenue
4.5bn
-7%
+5%
o/w LLPs
-0.1bn
n.m.
-72%
Net Profit1
1.5bn
+24%
+67%
Cost/Income ratio
51%
3 p.p.
-5 p.p.
Cost of Risk
10bps
+5bps
-26bps
RoTE
13.0%
+3 p.p.
+5 p.p.
CET1 ratio
15.73%
+173bps
(Group incl. Russia)
+22bps
Diluted EPS
0.69
+26%
(Eur)
+73%

1. 2Q22 stated net profit for Group incl. Russia at 2.0bn, +>100% Q/Q and +95% Y/Y. 2Q22 stated net profit for Group excl. Russia at 1.7bn, +40% Q/Q and +74% Y/Y

2. Subject to supervisory approval

Revenue up 5% Y/Y driven by net interest and fees

Net revenue growth Y/Y supported by strong commercial activity and resilient asset quality

Revenue, bn

Net Revenue quarterly evolution by item, bn

Net revenue 4.4bn

+12% Y/Y

Net interest income up 7% Q/Q driven by improving rates

All figures related to Group excl. Russia

13 1. Net contribution from hedging strategy of non-maturity deposits in 2Q22 at 244.0m, -50.2m Q/Q and -124.2m Y/Y 2. Other includes: margin from impaired loans, time value, FX effect, one-offs and other minor items

Net interest income outlook benefitting from improved rate environment

ECB Deposit Facility rate

UniCredit Unlocked vs. managerial scenario

Assumptions on sensitivity

  • ECB deposit rate increases by 50bps in July 2022, further +25bps by year-end 2022 and additional +25bps by 1H23. Remain stable at 50bps thereafter
  • ELF1 and tiering contribution fully removed with ECB deposit facility rate at zero
  • TLTRO: based on contractual terms and ECB deposit facility rate path
  • From +50bps to +100bps ECB deposit facility rate, incremental benefit for every 10bps progressively decreasing from +100m to +80m

Fees +1% Y/Y leading to a record first half

Benefit of diversification as strong financing and transactional fees offset market driven decline in investment fees

All figures related to Group excl. Russia 15

Cost base down 4% Y/Y with effective management control

Prior actions to frontload key cost initiatives delivering compelling results despite inflation

Low defaults sustain CoR while maintaining forward looking overlays

New additional overlays largely on energy intensive sectors set aside in 2Q22, offset by releases of prior ones

Repayments driving write-backs on NPEs

All figures related to Group excl. Russia

17 1. Gross of overlays released

Further reduction of gross and net NPE ratios and improved NPE mix

  • 2Q22 net bad loans lower than 1bn and net bad loan ratio at 0.2% (net bad loans/CET1 capital at 1.6%)
  • NPE coverage does not factor in provisions on performing loans (1% coverage) and c.1bn overlays

All figures related to Group excl. Russia

18 Gross NPE ratio for Group excl. Russia using more conservative EBA definition is 2% at 2Q22, compared to weighted average of EBA sample banks of 1.9% (as of 1Q22)

RWAs down 4% Q/Q mainly thanks to optimisation and procyclicality tailwinds

CET1r also positively impacted by capital reserves and other items

As of 30 Jun 22: +10bps parallel shift of BTP assets swap spread has -2.1bps pre (-66m) and -1.5bps post tax (-48m) impact on the fully loaded CET1 ratio

Introductory remarks

Financial highlights

Closing remarks – A. Orcel, CEO

Annex

21

Improving 2022 guidance and confirming financial resilience over plan

2022 GUIDANCE1 ROBUST PERFORMANCE EVEN IN 'RECESSION' SCENARIO
Net revenue 16.7
>
bn
UNICREDIT UNLOCKED
FINANCIAL AMBITION
Group excl. Russia
Net interest 9.2
c.
bn
COST OF RISK
(Avg. p.a. 2022-2024)
30
35
-
bps
Costs 9.5
c.
bn
NET PROFIT
(2024)
c.4.3
Cost / Income 55
c.
%
ORGANIC CAPITAL bn
Net profit 4.0
c.
bn
GENERATION
(Avg. p.a. 2022-2024)
c.150
bps
Cost of risk 30
<
bps
DISTRIBUTION
(2021-2024)
≥16
bn
CET1r2 13
>
%
UniCredit Unlocked Updated
'slowdown' scenario
Updated
'recession' scenario

All figures related to Group excl. Russia, unless otherwise stated

Another important step in the delivery of UniCredit Unlocked

2Q22 confirms our growth trajectory while maintaining a conservative approach and positions us ahead of competitors to face macro headwinds with a well managed Russia exposure

CONTINUE TO BEAT UNICREDIT UNLOCKED BUSINESS PLAN

Delivered best 1H in the last 10 years in GOP and Profit before Tax1

Outperformed Unlocked guidance across our three financial levers

All our regions and our product factories delivering strong results

WELL PREPARED TO FACE MACRO HEADWINDS

Unwavering commitment to UniCredit Unlocked imperatives

Strong starting position to face uncertainty with prudent overlays and provisioning

Determined to deliver sustainable results and returns

AND BUILDING FOR TOMORROW

Continue supporting our clients' just and fair transition …

… with strong environmental lending at 5.5bn and social lending at 2.6bn during 1H22

We recognise our important role in supporting the real economy and will continue to bolster businesses, with the aim of generating positive impacts for our communities through social finance and donations

Introductory remarks

Financial highlights

Closing remarks – A. Orcel, CEO

24

Group P&L and selected metrics

Group excl. Russia
All figures in bn
Unless otherwise stated
2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 2Q22
Revenue 4.4 4.4 4.4 5.0 4.8 4.5
Costs -2.5 -2.4 -2.5 -2.3 -2.4 -2.3
LLPs -0.4 -0.3 -0.8 -1.3 0.0 -0.1
Net Operating Profit 1.6 1.7 1.2 1.4 2.4 2.1
Systemic Charges -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.7 -0.1 -0.1
Integration Costs -0.0 -0.0 -1.3 -0.0 0.0 0.0
Stated Net Profit 1.0 1.1 -0.9 0.3 2.0 1.7
Net Profit 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.3 1.8 1.5
Cost / Income ratio, % 56 55 56 47 49 51
Cost of Risk, bps 33 27 73 114 0 10
Tax rate, % 24% 25% n.m. 1
55%
19% 22%
CET1r, % 15.50% 15.50% 15.03% 14.00% 15.73% -
RWA 327.7 328.0 322.0 329.9 316.7 298.4
RoTE, % 8.0% 8.8% 5.5% 2.3% 15.1% 13.0%
Diluted EPS, Eur 0.43 0.48 0.30 0.13 0.84 0.69
Tangible book value per share, Eur 23.5 24.0 23.9 24.2 25.9 -

Used for distribution calculation purposes

2022 CET1 ratio walk

CET1r, % including threshold impacts on capital and RWA

1. Details at page 4

26

  • 2. 2022 cash dividend is accrued at 35% of Net Profit Group excl. Russia, net of AT1, CASHES coupons and impacts from DTAs from tax loss carry forward contribution (zero in 1Q22 and 6m in 2Q22)
  • 3. 2nd tranche of 1.0bn share buy back submitted to ECB

4. 2H distributions are based on cash dividend accrual (see footnote 2)

plus AT1 and CASHES coupons if conditions are met or discretion is exercised

5. Subject to supervisory and shareholder approvals

Russia exposure details

RUSSIA EXPOSURE
MAX. CAPITAL IMPACT
EXTREME LOSS
ASSESSMENT1
CAPITAL EQUIVALENT OF 1H22 P&L AND EQUITY
IMPACTS
IMPACT FROM
EXTREME LOSS ASSESSMENT1
Exposure, bn 22nd
of July
22nd
of July
in 1H22 Taken in 2Q22 Taken 1Q22
market
presentation
22nd
of July
CET1r impact bn bps bn bps bn bps bn bps bps bps
Participation 3
-3.5
4
-54
3
-3.5
4
-54
3
+0.9
4
+
2
3
+1.5
4
+52
4
+
4
4
-54
Higher impact from RUB appreciation and 2Q22
capital generation; prudent approach in 1Q
resulted in limited release of provisions in 2Q
Derivatives -0.8 -29 -0.3 -9 -0.1 -2 +0.0 +
0
-15 -9 Intragroup only and fully collateralised;
-0.1bn taken in 1H22 is the cost incurred in 1Q22
Cross-border exposure5 -2.8 -89
4
-1.4 -38
4
-0.7 -30
4
+0.1 +10
4
-14
4
4
-8
Releases in cross-border mainly thanks to
Additional intragroup exposure6 -0.3 -9 -0.3 -9 -12 -9 repayments and exposures reduced further by
actively working with clients
Total impact -7.2 -180 -5.4 -110 +0.1 -30 +1.6 +62 -36 -80
14.20% Improved from 12.99% as of
1Q22 market presentation
15.73% 13.65%
pro-forma
as of 1Q22
14.93%
Strong cross-border
exposure
reduction
thanks to proactive
actions
at
minimum cost
2.7
c.−
bn7
Since March, executed de-risking
actions of exposure at a minimum cost
40
c.
%
Non-local exposure
reduction
110 bps
Capital impact…
30
bps
o/w
taken in 1H22
28
c.
%
Absorbed
Lower absorbed % Q/Q driven by the
participation capital generation and
RUB appreciation
which also
meaningfully benefited 2Q22 CET1r

1. 'Extreme loss assessment' includes certain financial and credit assumptions and cross border recoverability of c.50%

2. Hypothetical impact on CET1r if extreme loss scenario materialises (not UniCredit base case); Residual means not already reflected in actual 2Q22 CET1r

3. Incl. P&L and Capital

4. Incl. movement in RWA

6. Net of Export Credit Agency guarantees of c. 0.1bn 7. Delta since 8th March excluding change in FX hedging and additional exposure 27 (as per page 3 of 1Q22 market presentation)

5. Net of Export Credit Agency guarantees of c. 0.5bn

Loan and deposit volumes

2Q22 avg gross commercial
performing loans, bn
vs 1Q22 Gross customer performing
loan rates 2Q22
(vs 1Q22)
2Q22 avg commercial
deposits, bn
vs 1Q22 Customer deposits
rates 2Q22
(vs 1Q22)
Italy 166 -0% 1.79%
(+4bp)
196 +1% 0.01%
(flat)
Germany 114 +2% 1.78%
(+5bps)
135 +0% 0.10%
(-9bps)
Central Europe 88 -0%
At constant FX
1.82%
(+20bps at constant FX)
92 +1%
At constant FX
-0.26%
(-13bps at constant FX)
Eastern Europe
excl. Russia
31 +5%
At constant FX
3.69%
(+6bps at constant FX)
40 +1%
At constant FX
-0.23%
(-11bps at constant FX)
Group
excluding Russia
399 +1% 1.94%
(+9bps)
464 +1% -0.04%
(-6bps)
Russia 12 -17%
At constant FX
6.91%
(+120bps at constant FX)
14 -1%
At constant FX
-6.28%
(-220bps at constant FX)
Group 411 +1% 2.08%
(+13bps)
477 +1% -0.22%
(-14bps)

Client Solutions - quarterly evolution

+7% Y/Y, 2Q22

High

17%

Total Financial Assets

Spill-over analysis confirming soundness of Group risk profile

31 1. Total EaD reported including only Enterprises and Individuals segments, Enterprises split based on managerial industry clustering 2. Group excl. Russia

Group gross loans breakdown by stages

1. Total loans to customers end-of-period, at face value (i.e. before deduction of provisions), including active repos and (in divisional figures) intercompany, both performing and non performing 32 (comprising bad loans, unlikely to pay, and past due); debt securities and non current assets held for disposal are excluded

Group tangible equity & TBVpS

N° of shares decreased from 2,184m to 2,081m due to '2021 first share buyback tranche' (103m treasury shares as at 30/06/2022)

End notes

Disclaimer

This presentation may contain "forward-looking statements" which includes all statements that do not relate solely to historical or current facts and which are therefore inherently uncertain. All forward-looking statements rely on a number of assumptions, expectations, projections and provisional data concerning future events and are subject to a number of uncertainties and other factors, many of which are outside the control of UniCredit S.p.A. (the "Company"). There are a variety of factors that may cause actual results and performance to be materially different from the explicit or implicit contents or expectations of any forwardlooking statements and thus, such forward-looking statements are not a reliable indicator of future performance.

The Company undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as may be required by applicable law. The information and opinions contained in this Presentation are provided as at the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. Neither this presentation nor any part of it nor the fact of its distribution may form the basis of, or be relied on or in connection with, any contract or investment decision.

The information, statements and opinions contained in this presentation are for information purposes only and do not constitute a public offer under any applicable legislation or an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe for securities or financial instruments or any advice or recommendation with respect to such securities or other financial instruments. Any recipient is therefore responsible for his own independent investigations and assessments regarding the risks, benefits, adequacy and suitability of any operation carried out after the date of this presentation. None of the securities referred to herein have been, or will be, registered under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the securities laws of any state or other jurisdiction of the United States or in Australia, Canada or Japan or any other jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be unlawful (the "Other Countries"), and there will be no public offer of any such securities in the United States. This presentation does not constitute or form a part of any offer or solicitation to purchase or subscribe for securities in the United States or the Other Countries. Distribution of this document in other jurisdictions may be prohibited, and recipients into whose possession this document comes shall be solely responsible for informing themselves about and observing any such restrictions.

Pursuant the consolidated law on financial intermediation of 24 February 1998 (article 154 bis, paragraph 2) Stefano Porro, in his capacity as manager responsible for the preparation of the Company's financial reports declares that the accounting information contained in this presentation reflects the UniCredit Group's documented results, financial accounts and accounting records.

For the aforementioned purposes, "presentation" means this document, and any oral presentation, any question-and-answer session and any written or oral material discussed following the distribution of this document. By participating to this presentation and accepting a copy of this presentation, you agree to be bound by the foregoing limitations regarding the information disclosed in this presentation.

Neither the Company nor any member of the UniCredit Group nor any of its or their respective representatives, directors or employees shall be liable at any time in connection with this presentation or any of its contents for any indirect or incidental damages including, but not limited to, loss of profits or loss of opportunity, or any other liability whatsoever which may arise in connection of any use and/or reliance placed on it.

Information related to this presentation (1/3)

General notes

End notes are an integral part of this presentation.

All data throughout the documents are in Euros

Numbers throughout the presentation may not add up precisely to the totals provided in tables and text due to rounding

Russia includes the local bank and legal entities, plus the cross border exposure booked in UniCredit SpA

CET1 ratio fully loaded throughout the document, unless otherwise stated

Allocated capital calculated as 13.0% of RWA plus deductions throughout the document

Shareholder distribution subject to supervisory and shareholder approvals

Figures relating to the last quarter 2021 and the first quarter 2022 have been restated to following the reclassification of UniCredit Leasing S.p.A. and its controlled company and of UniCredit Leasing GMBH and its controlled companies out of the non current assets held for sale.

Main definitions

"Clients" means those clients that made at least one transaction in the last three months
"Cost of risk" based on reclassified P&L and Balance sheet, calculated as (i) LLPs of the period (annualised
in the interim periods) over (ii) average loans to customers
(including active repos, excluding debt securities and IFRS5 reclassified assets).
"Coverage ratio (on NPE)" Stock of LLPs on NPEs over Gross NPEs excluding IFRS5 reclassified assets
"Customer Loan" Net performing and non-performing loans to customers excluding active repos, debt securities, intercompany for divisions
"Diluted EPS" calculated as Net Profit -
as defined below -
on avg. number of diluted shares (i.e. outstanding shares excluding avg. treasury and CASHES usufruct
shares)
"Gross Comm. Perf. Loan AVG" Average stock for the period of performing Loans to commercial clients (e.g. excluding markets counterparts and operations); managerial figures, key
driver of the NII generated by the network activity
"Gross NPEs" Loan to customers non performing exposures before deduction of provisions comprising bad loans, unlikely to pay, and past due
(including active
repos, excluding debt securities and IFRS5 reclassified assets)
"Gross NPE Ratio" Gross non performing exposures over gross loans to customers (including active repos, excluding debt securities and IFRS5 reclassified assets)

Main definitions

"Net NPEs" Loan to customers non performing exposures after deduction of provisions, comprising bad loans, unlikely to pay, and past due
(including active repos,
excluding debt securities and IFRS5 reclassified assets)
"Net NPE Ratio" Net non performing exposures over net loans to customers (including active repos, excluding debt securities and IFRS5 reclassified assets)
"Net profit" means Stated net profit adjusted for AT1 and CASHES coupons and impacts from DTAs tax loss carry forward contribution; for 2021
also adjusted for
non-operating items
"Net revenue" means (i) revenue, minus (ii) Loan Loss Provisions
"Organic capital generation" for Group calculated as (Net Profit excluding Russia pre AT1 & CASHES less delta RWA excluding Regulatory Headwinds x CET1r actual)/ RWA
"RoTE" means (i) net profit –
as defined above, over (ii) average tangible equity –
as defined below, minus CASHES and DTA from tax loss carry forward
contribution
"Stated net profit" means accounting net profit
"Regulatory headwinds" Regulatory Headwinds are mostly driven by regulatory changes and model maintenance (impacting on both P&L, RWA and capital), shortfall and
calendar provisioning (impacting on capital)
"SBB" Share buy back -
repurchasing of shares by the company that issued them to reduce the number of shares available on the open market
"UTP" means "unlikely to pay": the classification in this category is the result of the judgment of the bank about the unlikeliness, without recourse to actions
such as realizing collaterals, that the obligor will pay in full (principal and/or interest) its credit obligations
"Tangible Equity" for Group calculated as Shareholders' equity (including Group stated profit of the period) less intangible assets (goodwill and other intangibles), less
AT1 component
"TBVpS" for Group calculated as End-of-Period tangible book value per share equals End-of-Period tangible equity over End-of-Period number of shares excluding
treasury shares