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U-MING — Investor Presentation 2021
Apr 14, 2021
52160_rns_2021-04-14_699f7cf4-73e6-49ff-ad37-49a32dce9aa6.pdf
Investor Presentation
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裕民航運股份有限公司 U-Ming Marine Transport Corporation T W S E S t o c k c o d e : 2 6 0 6 T T
元富證券法人處「2021年台股企業日」 IR presentation
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Disclaimer
This presentation contains forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions, some of which are beyond our control. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements. Because of these risks, uncertainties and assumptions, the forward-looking events and circumstances discussed in this presentation might not occur in the way we expect, or at all. You should not place undue reliance on any forwardlooking information.
In preparing the information herein, U-MING have relied upon and assumed, without independent verification, the accuracy and completeness of all information available from public sources or which was provided to U-MING or which was otherwise reviewed by U-MING. Neither U-MING nor its advisors have made any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of such information and nor do they assume any undertaking to supplement such information as further information becomes available or in light of changing circumstances. None of U-MING, nor any of their respective affiliates, advisers or representatives shall have any liability whatsoever (in negligence or otherwise) for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this presentation or its contents or otherwise arising in connection with this presentation. Neither this presentation nor any of its contents may be reproduced to a third party without the prior written consent of U-MING.
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船隊統計
Fleet
| 船舶類型Type | 營運管理船舶(艘/ 載重噸) Vessels under operation (no./ dwt) |
營運管理船舶(艘/ 載重噸) Vessels under operation (no./ dwt) |
營運管理船舶(艘/ 載重噸) Vessels under operation (no./ dwt) |
新訂在建船舶(艘/ 載重噸) Newbuilding under construction (no./ dwt) |
新訂在建船舶(艘/ 載重噸) Newbuilding under construction (no./ dwt) |
新訂在建船舶(艘/ 載重噸) Newbuilding under construction (no./ dwt) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 超大型礦砂船VLOC | 2/ | 650,000 | 0/ | 0 | ||
| 海岬型Capesize | 16/ | 3,032,667 |
6/ | 1,180,000 | ||
| 巴拿馬極限型Panamax | 14/ | 1,172,606 |
2/ | 200,000 | ||
| 輕便型Supramax/ Ultramax | 6/ | 361,097 | 0/ | 0 | ||
| 水泥船Cement Carrier | 4/ | 43,124 | 0/ | 0 | ||
| 油輪Oil Tanker | 5/ | 1,305,474 | 0/ | 0 | ||
| 風電船Offshore Wind Vessel | 2/ | 78 | 0/ | 0 | ||
| 小計Sum | 49/ | 6,565,046 | 8/ | 1,380,000 | ||
| 總計Total | 57/ 7,945,046 |
U-MING Presentation
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關鍵績效指標 Key Performance Indicators 2016~2020
| Year | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (NT$M) |
6,517 | 8,501 | 11,523 | 10,068 |
| Net Profit/(loss) (NT$M) |
(878) | 1,000 | 1,669 | 1,622 |
| EPS (NT$) |
($1.04) | $1.18 | $1.97 | $1.92 |
| EBITDA % | 30% | 43% | 40% | 47% |
| Average BDI | 673 | 1,145 | 1,353 | 1,353 |
| Cash on hand (NT$M) |
13,541 | 10,529 | 16,685 | 15,879 |
| ROE % | -3.4% | 4.3% | 7.0% | 6.2% |
| ROA % | -0.7% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.6% |
| Liability % | 58% | 59% | 59% | 57% |
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環保節能船表現優異
UM’s 2016-2020 5-Yr Average Eco Ship Outperforming the Market
US$/Day (net)
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財務健全&穩定股利政策
Disciplined allocation of capital
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Future cash
return to Sustaining
shareholders growth
Total undistributed earnings
NT$11.21Bn (NT$13.27/share) as at
Debt management
31/Dec 2020.
Strong cash position at NT$13.35Bn
as at 31/Dec 2020.
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- Strong cash position at NT$13.35Bn as at 31/Dec 2020.
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擴建船隊規模,發展智能船舶,創造長期收入 2018-2023F Capital expenditure
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Capital expenditure profile NT$m
7,000
CAPEX PMX
5,914
6,000
Cape CTV +66%
5,000
3,860
4,000
3,563
3,000 5,914
2,427
2,000 1,665
1,388 248
1,000
1,007
466
1,433
409
-
2018 19 20 21F 22F 2023F
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全球積極施打COVID-19 疫苗加速減緩疫情航運市場持續恢復動能 BDI gains momentum on the road to recovery
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BDI
2,500
2011-2020 max
2021
2,000
1,500
2020
1,000
500
2011-2020 min
-
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
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10 U-MING Presentation Source: Baltic Exchange
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日租金收益成長
Spot market TCE
BCI 5TC
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$35,000
$30,000
$25,000
$20,000
$15,000
$10,000
$5,000
$0
Jan Apr Jul Oct
2019 2020 2021
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Q1 average: $17,126 YOY: 276%
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BPI 5TC BSI 10TC
$25,000 $25,000
$20,000 $20,000
$15,000 $15,000
$10,000 $10,000
$5,000 $5,000
$0 $0
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct
2019 2020 2021 2019 2020 2021
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Q1 average: $18,493 YOY: 161%
Q1 average: $16,633 YOY: 154%
11 U-MING Presentation Source: Baltic Exchange
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2021 PMI 快速擴張製造業復甦帶動次要乾散貨海運需求
Loading demand of minor bulks on the back of soaring PMI in opening 2021
Manufacturing PMI Panamax Timecharter Average (rhs) Supramax Timecharter Average (rhs) Handysize Timecharter Average (rhs)
60 $25,000 55 $20,000 50 $15,000 45 $10,000 • PMI at 55 in March, a 121-month high. • Expansion in each of the past 9 months 40 $5,000 35 $0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 2020 2021
12 U-MING Presentation Source: J.P.Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI; Baltic Exchange
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穀物出口淡季不淡大西洋區船舶供給吃緊 Tight Atlantic tonnage basis firm grain exports in off-season
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U.S. soybean exports U.S. corn exports
14 10
12
8
10
8 6
6 4
4
2
2
0 0
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct
2020 2021 2020 2021
Port congestion – Grains – Brazil Port congestion – Grains – Argentina
Panamax & Handymax/Supramax & Handysize Panamax & Handymax/Supramax & Handysize
120 120
100 100
80 80
60 60
40 40
20 20
- -
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct
2020 2021 2020 2021
Million metrci ton Million metric ton
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13 U-MING Presentation Source: USDA; G-Ports
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今年第一季中小型船市場表現亮眼
Panamax and Supramax 2021Q1 market performance
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82,500-dwt TCE 74,000-dwt TCE 58,000-dwt TCE
$30,000 $30,000 $30,000
$25,000 $25,000 $25,000
$20,000 $20,000 $20,000
$15,000 $15,000 $15,000
$10,000 $10,000 $10,000
$11,000 $11,000 $11,000
$5,000 $5,000 $5,000
$0 $0 $0
2021 2018-2020 max 2021 2011-2020 max 2021 2016-2020 max
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Q1 average: $18,493 YOY: 161%
Q1 average: $17,157 YOY: 199%
Q1 average: $16,633 YOY: 154%
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中國粗鋼生產以高爐製程為主原料長期以含鐵量高的進口鐵礦石為主 Demand for seaborne iron ore remains strongly China-centered
中國 2019 粗鋼產量 (依製程)
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中國 2020 鐵礦石需求 (依來源)
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Oxygen-blown Converter,
89.6%
Eelectric Furnace,
10.4%
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Imports,
82.3%
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- 依 90% 粗鋼由高爐生產、每噸消耗 1.5 噸鐵礦石估算
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15 U-MING Presentation Source: worldsteel; 中国海关总署
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中國投資非洲Simandou 礦場開發不易澳洲及巴西仍是主要鐵礦砂出口國 Global iron ore supply structure to remain broadly unchanged
Outlook for global iron ore exports (million tons)
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2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
-
2019 2020 (s) 2021 (f) 2022 (f)
Australia Brazil Ukraine India ROW
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16 U-MING Presentation Source: World Steel Association (2020); Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources (2020).
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VALE 預計2021 下半年加速鐵礦石復產全年產量將增加9% VALE foresees a 28mt increase in production but more restarts to be pushed to late 2021
VALE iron ore production capacity growth in 2021 (million tons)
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370
4
360 9
17 5 350
350
21
340
10
10
7
4
330 4
7
322
320
-14
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
310 Resumption Losses
300
2020 Timbopeda Fabrica Vargem Grande Brucutu Serra Leste & Itabira Other 2021
S11D
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17 U-MING Presentation Source: Arrow Dry Bulk Outlook
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中國鋼鐵需求佔全球一半以上逐步進入穩定的高原期 China is accounting for 57% of global steel demand and reaching its plateau
| Milloin tons | Milloin tons | YOY growth rate | YOY growth rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 (f) | 2021 (f) | 2020 (f) | 2021 (f) | |
| World | 1,725.1 | 1,795.1 |
-2.4% |
4.1% |
| World excl. China | 745.0 | 815.0 |
-13.3% |
9.4% |
| Developed economies | 336.7 | 363.5 |
-14.4% |
7.9% |
| China | 980.1 | 980.1 |
8.0% |
0.0% |
| Em. and dev. economies excl. China | 408.3 | 451.6 |
-12.3% |
10.6% |
| ASEAN (5) | 73.1 | 77.3 |
-6.0% |
5.8% |
| MENA | 54.8 | 58.4 |
-16.8% |
6.7% |
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18 U-MING Presentation Source: worldsteel Short Range Outlook October 2020
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預估乾散貨貿易穩定成長
Bulker market could see positive impetus in 2021 and into 2022
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YOY change in dry bulk trades
7.8%
4.8%
4.2%
3.2% 2.7% 2.7% 3.0%
1.7% 1.8%
1.3%
-3.2%
-9.5%
Iron ore Coal Grain
Major Bulks Minor Bulks
2020 2021 (f) 2022 (f)
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19 U-MING Presentation Source: Clarksons SIN
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船隊訂單維持歷史低檔
Bulkcarrier orderbook falls to an all-time low less than 6%
Orderbook % Fleet
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140%
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Capesize Panamax Handymax
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20 U-MING Presentation Source: Clarksons SIN
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低運力成長有利航運市場景氣復甦
Lower growth of tonnage as a result of fewer deliveries and an impetus for recoveries
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Bulkcarrier supply-demand trend
5%
4% 3.7% Dry bulk tonne-
mile trade
growth
3%
2.6%
2%
1%
Bulkcarrier fleet
growth
0%
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 (f) 2022 (f)
-1%
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自有船隊持續轉型優化高效節能永續成長 Driving eco-efficiency for a sustainable tomorrow
'Eco' Vessels, % Fleet dwt
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Capesize (100,000+ dwt) Panamax (65,000-99,999 dwt)
94.3%
43.0%
34.7%
43.3%
Dry Bulk U-Ming Dry Bulk U-Ming
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Handymax (40,000-64,999 dwt)
69.2%
37.5%
Dry Bulk U-Ming
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23 U-MING Presentation Source: Clarksons WFR
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策略聯盟共享合資夥伴優勢拓展業務規模 Joint ventures expansion to leverage partners’ advantages
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多元經營分散市場風險 Diversity of fleet to diminish market risk
海岬型 Capesize, 33% 巴拿馬極限型 Panamax, 29% 超大型礦砂船 VLOC, 4% 風電船 Offshore Wind Vessel, 4% 輕便型 Supramax/ Ultramax, 12% 油輪 Oil Tanker, 10% 水泥船 Cement Carrier, 8%
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* 百分比依艘數計算
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簽訂長期合約建立穩定獲利
Long-term contract portfolio to secure stable profit
VALE 25-year COA
2 x 325,000-dwt VLOC started in 2020Q3
Anglo American 10-year Time Charter 4 x 190,000-dwt dual-fuel Tier III Capesize to be started in 2023Q1
1-4 year Time/Voyage Charter with major iron ore miners, grain traders, steel companies, power companies
7-year Bareboat Charter 2 x ROC-flag WS25 CTV started in 2021Q1
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環境面: 節能減排對抗氣候變遷
Reduce 30% of CO2 emissions in 2025 to minimize climate change
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0.02
0.018
21.7%
0.016 30% v 目標達成
0.014
0.012
0.01 2020年目標設定
0.008
0.006 減排20%
0.004
0.002 2020年績效表現
0
2013 2020 2025 減排21.7%
二氧化碳排放量
583,745 710,432
(CO2e)
航行船舶加總噸位量
32,502,544 49,812,963
(DWTmonth) (Ton)
CO2/DWTMONTH
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社會面:安全職場留才用才
Safe place and retain talent
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(件) (%) (%) 離職率
25 1
2020年績效表現 100
船員生病案 0.9
90
20 0.8
80
船員受傷案
0.7 失能傷害率0% 70
15 0.6
60
船員死亡/失
0.5
50
蹤
海事碰撞案 10 0.4 海事案件下降 40
0.3 30
船/貨損案 5 0.2 20
加薪大於 3%
0.1 10
失能傷害頻率 0 0 0
(FR) 2017 2018 2019 2020 人員離職率低 2018 2019 2020
留才用才
安全職場
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治理面:永續治理創造雙贏
Sustainable development is a win-win solution
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Case 1 ESG Linked Loan
(永續指數連結貸款)
永續指標: (1)碳排放量較前一年下降(2)納入重要永
續指數(富時台灣永續指數道瓊永續指數)
預期效益: 裕民新建液化天然氣(LNG) 雙燃料動力散
裝貨輪,預估船舶EEDI可降低42.8%,將可符合玉山
銀行船舶融資的永續指標,享有十年期優惠利率。
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Case 2 QUALSHIP 21
(21世紀優質船舶證書)
說明: 美國海岸巡防隊以降低外籍船舶受檢查頻率為誘
因,對船舶管理進行評核,確實保障船員福利,人員
安全及確保海洋環境不致遭受危害。評核通過之船舶,
可於三年內在美國港口,快速通關,提升效率。
效益: 迄2020/12/31止,裕民船隊計有10艘船舶通過
美國海岸巡防隊頒發21世紀優質船舶證書,享有快速
通關優惠。
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THANK YOU
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