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U-MING — Investor Presentation 2021
Jun 9, 2021
52160_rns_2021-06-09_a41607ea-b116-40e0-ba0c-7681034d0447.pdf
Investor Presentation
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裕民航運股份有限公司 U-Ming Marine Transport Corporation T W S E S t o c k c o d e : 2 6 0 6 T T
國泰證券
2021年第二季產業論壇
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U-MING Presentation
Disclaimer
This presentation contains forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions, some of which are beyond our control. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements. Because of these risks, uncertainties and assumptions, the forward-looking events and circumstances discussed in this presentation might not occur in the way we expect, or at all. You should not place undue reliance on any forwardlooking information.
In preparing the information herein, U-MING have relied upon and assumed, without independent verification, the accuracy and completeness of all information available from public sources or which was provided to U-MING or which was otherwise reviewed by U-MING. Neither U-MING nor its advisors have made any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of such information and nor do they assume any undertaking to supplement such information as further information becomes available or in light of changing circumstances. None of U-MING, nor any of their respective affiliates, advisers or representatives shall have any liability whatsoever (in negligence or otherwise) for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this presentation or its contents or otherwise arising in connection with this presentation. Neither this presentation nor any of its contents may be reproduced to a third party without the prior written consent of U-MING.
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U-MING Presentation
3 U-MING Presentation
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船隊統計
Fleet
| 船舶類型Type | 營運管理船舶(艘/ 載重噸) Vessels under operation (no./ dwt) |
營運管理船舶(艘/ 載重噸) Vessels under operation (no./ dwt) |
營運管理船舶(艘/ 載重噸) Vessels under operation (no./ dwt) |
新訂在建船舶(艘/ 載重噸) Newbuilding under construction (no./ dwt) |
新訂在建船舶(艘/ 載重噸) Newbuilding under construction (no./ dwt) |
新訂在建船舶(艘/ 載重噸) Newbuilding under construction (no./ dwt) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 超大型礦砂船VLOC | 2/ | 650,000 | 0/ | 0 | ||
| 海岬型Capesize | 15/ | 2,856,785 |
8/ | 1,600,000 | ||
| 巴拿馬極限型Panamax | 14/ | 1,172,606 |
4/ | 400,000 | ||
| 輕便型Supramax/ Ultramax | 6/ | 361,097 | 0/ | 0 | ||
| 水泥船Cement Carrier | 4/ | 43,124 | 0/ | 0 | ||
| 油輪Oil Tanker | 5/ | 1,305,474 | 0/ | 0 | ||
| 風電船Offshore Wind Vessel | 2/ | 78 | 0/ | 0 | ||
| 小計Sum | 48/ | 6,389,164 | 12/ | 2,000,000 | ||
| 總計Total | 60/ 8,389,164 |
U-MING Presentation
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關鍵績效指標 Key Performance Indicators 2017~2021Q1
| Year | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (NT$M) |
8,501 | 11,523 | 10,068 | 8,507 |
| Net Profit/(loss) (NT$M) |
1,000 | 1,669 | 1,622 | 878 |
| EPS (NT$) |
$1.18 | $1.97 | $1.92 | $1.04 |
| EBITDA % | 43% | 40% | 47% | 43% |
| Average BDI | 1,145 | 1,353 | 1,353 | 1,066 |
| Cash on hand (NT$M) |
10,529 | 16,685 | 15,879 | 13,353 |
| ROE % | 4.3% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 3.5% |
| ROA % | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.4% |
| Liability % | 59% | 59% | 57% | 62% |
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U-MING Presentation
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BDI指數創近年新高
U-Ming’s Monthly Revenue vs. BDI trend from 2019 till May 2021
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NT$m Operating Revenue BDI BDI
1,400 3,500
2019Q1 2020Q1
1,200 2021Q1 3,000
1,055
1,000 2,500
800 2,000
600 1,500
400 1,000
200 500
0 0
YYMM 1901 1904 1907 1910 2001 2004 2007 2010 2101 2104
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7 U-MING Presentation
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全球積極施打COVID-19 疫苗加速減緩疫情航運市場持續恢復動能
BDI gains momentum on the road to recovery
BDI average hit 2,965 in May, venturing into this territory for the first time in 11 years.
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BDI
2,965
3,000
2,500
2011-2020 max
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
2011-2020 min
-
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
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8 U-MING Presentation Source: Baltic Exchange
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低基期影響中國經濟大幅成長整體處於恢復進程 China rebounds with an economic growth target above 6%
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GDP
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房地產開發累計增長(%) 工業增加值累計增長(%)
1992年以來最高紀錄
80% 40%
18.3%
60%
30%
40%
20%
6.5% 20%
4.9%
0% 10%
3.2%
-20%
0%
-40%
-10%
-6.8% -60%
1992年以來首次負成長
-20%
房地產投資 房地產新開工施工面積
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9 U-MING Presentation Source: 中國國家統計局
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2021 PMI 持續擴張製造業復甦帶動次要乾散貨海運需求
Loading demand of minor bulks on the back of expanding PMI in 2021
Manufacturing PMI Panamax Timecharter Average (rhs) Supramax Timecharter Average (rhs) Handysize Timecharter Average (rhs)
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60
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$30,000
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$25,000
55
$20,000
50
$15,000
45
$10,000
•
PMI at 56 in May, the highest since April 2010.
40 •
Expansion in each of the past 11 months $5,000
35 $0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
2020 2021
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10 U-MING Presentation Source: J.P.Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI; Baltic Exchange
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日租金收益成長
Spot market TCE
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BCI 5TC BPI 5TC BSI 10TC
$35,508
$25,974 $25,524
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct
2019 2020 2021 2019 2020 2021 2019 2020 2021
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5 months average: $23,035 YOY: 353%
5 months average: $20,487 YOY: 199%
5 months average: $19,188 YOY: 224%
11 U-MING Presentation Source: Baltic Exchange
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Q1 穀物出口淡季不淡大西洋區船舶供給吃緊 Tight Atlantic tonnage basis firm grain exports in off-season
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U.S. soybean exports U.S. corn exports
14 10
12
8
10
8 6
6 4
4
2
2
0 0
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct
2020 2021 2020 2021
Port congestion – Grains – Brazil Port congestion – Grains – Argentina
Panamax & Handymax/Supramax & Handysize Panamax & Handymax/Supramax & Handysize
120 120
100 100
80 80
60 60
40 40
20 20
- -
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct
2020 2021 2020 2021
Million metrci ton Million metric ton
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12 U-MING Presentation Source: USDA; G-Ports
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中小型船市場延續今年第一季亮眼表現
Panamax and Supramax continuing Q1's market performance
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82,500-dwt TCE 74,000-dwt TCE 58,000-dwt TCE
$30,000 $30,000 $30,000
$20,000 $20,000 $20,000
$10,000 $10,000 $10,000
$11,000 $11,000 $11,000
$0 $0 $0
2021 2018-2020 max 2021 2011-2020 max 2021 2016-2020 max
Week1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 Week1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 Week1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
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5 months average: $20,487 5 months average: $19,151 YOY: 199% YOY: 247%
5 months average: $19,188 YOY: 224%
13 U-MING Presentation Source: Baltic Exchange
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中國粗鋼生產以高爐製程為主原料長期以含鐵量高的進口鐵礦石為主 Demand for seaborne iron ore remains strongly China-centered
中國 2019 粗鋼產量 (依製程)
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中國 2020 鐵礦石需求 (依來源)
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Oxygen-blown Converter,
89.6%
Eelectric Furnace,
10.4%
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Imports,
82.3%
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- 依 90% 粗鋼由高爐生產、每噸消耗 1.5 噸鐵礦石估算
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14 U-MING Presentation Source: worldsteel; 中国海关总署
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鋼廠增效減排推升高品位鐵礦石需求
China's commitments to cut overall pollution are improving iron ore grades to raise steelmaking efficiency
Iron ore price spread between high and low grades at record levels
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Spread (rhs) (RMB/Ton) Brazil fines (65% Fe) price Australia fines (56.5% Fe) price
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
-
Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21
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15 U-MING Presentation Source: 西本新干线
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中國進口鐵礦石以澳洲、巴西為主要來源國家
In terms of tonne miles of China's iron ore imports, the importance of both Australian and Brazil evens out.
Tonnes (Million)
Tonne miles (Billion)
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900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Brazil Australia
2019 2020
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3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
-
Brazil Australia
2019 2020
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16 U-MING Presentation Source: BIMCO; Oceanbolt
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預期未來澳洲及巴西仍是主要鐵礦砂出口國巴西復產成長較快 Global seaborne iron ore trade remains dominated by Australia and Brazil 2020-2026 CAGR: World: 2.9%, Australia: 4.1%, Brazil: 4.9%
Outlook for global iron ore exports (million tons)
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2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
2020 2021 f 2022 f 2023 f 2024 z 2025 z 2026 z
Australia Brazil ROW f forecast. z projection.
Source: Bloomberg (2021); World Steel Association (2021); Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources (2021)
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17 U-MING Presentation Source: Bloomberg (2021); World Steel Association (2021); Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources (2021)
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主要礦商供貨穩定增長
Major miners expect a stable growth of iron ore production
Iron ore shipment (Mt)
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100
90
2021 iron ore production guidance: (Mt)
80
Rio Tinto: 325-340 (unchanged)
70
BHP: 245-255 (unchanged)
60
Vale: 315-335 (increased)
50
FMG: 178-182 (increased)
40
30
20
Anglo American: 64.5-67.5 (increased)
10
0
2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2021Q1
Vale Rio Tinto BHP FMG Anglo American
[[st]] quarter reports of Company
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18 U-MING Presentation Source: 2021 1[[st]] quarter reports of Company
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VALE 預計2021 下半年加速鐵礦石復產全年產能將增加9% VALE foresees a 28mt increase in production but more restarts to be pushed to late 2021
VALE iron ore production capacity growth in 2021 (million tons)
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370
4
360 9
17 5 350
350
21
340
10
10
7
4
330 4
7
322
320
-14
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
310 Resumption Losses
300
2020 Timbopeda Fabrica Vargem Grande Brucutu Serra Leste & Itabira Other 2021
S11D
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19 U-MING Presentation Source: Arrow Dry Bulk Outlook
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中國鋼鐵需求佔全球一半以上逐步進入永續成長的高原期
China is accounting for 55% of global steel demand and reaching its sustainable growth
| Milloin tons | Milloin tons | YOY growth rate | YOY growth rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 (f) | 2022 (f) | 2021 (f) | 2022 (f) | |
| World | 1,874.0 | 1,924.6 |
5.8% |
2.7% |
| World excl. China | 849.1 | 889.5 | 9.3% | 4.7% |
| Developed economies | 371.0 | 386.4 | 8.2% | 4.2% |
| China | 1,024.9 | 1,035.1 | 3.0% | 1.0% |
| Developing economies excl. China | 478.2 | 503.0 | 10.2% | 5.2% |
| ASEAN (5) | 73.0 | 77.7 | 6.2% | 6.5% |
| MENA | 66.0 | 68.7 | 6.1% | 4.1% |
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20 U-MING Presentation Source: worldsteel Short Range Outlook April 2021
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預估乾散貨貿易穩定成長
Bulker market could see positive impetus in 2021 and into 2022
YOY change in tonne miles of dry bulk trades
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11.1%
5.4%
4.8%
4.0% 3.6%
2.8%
2.0% 1.9% 1.8%
1.3%
-0.9%
-9.4%
Iron ore Coal Grain Minor Bulks
2020 2021 (f) 2022 (f)
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21 U-MING Presentation Source: Clarksons SIN
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船隊訂單維持歷史低檔
Bulkcarrier orderbook falls to an all-time low less than 6%
Orderbook % Fleet
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140%
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Capesize Panamax Handymax
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22 U-MING Presentation Source: Clarksons SIN
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預期環保因素將加速淘汰老舊船型
More environmentally unfriendly vessels to be phased out
RightShip GHG Emission Rating profile 16+ years old bulkers (no.)
Age profile (no.)
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4,000
250
3,500
3,000 200
2,500
150
2,000
17% of fleet C+P+H
1,500 100
1,000
50
500
0 0
0-5 6-10 11-15 16-20 20+ B C D E F G
Capesize Panamax Handymax Cape Panamax Supramax
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23 U-MING Presentation Source: Clarksons SIN; RightShip
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6成現有船未達環保節能定義預期船東將改裝或減速以符合IMO新規定 62% of the fleet are still 'non-eco' and of lower potential for speed reductions to meet EEXI* requirements coming into force in 2023
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'eco' 'non-eco'
100%
75%
56%
65% 62% 62%
76%
50%
25%
0%
Capesize Panamax Handymax Handysize Total Bulkcarrier Fleet
(100,000+ dwt) (65,000-99,999 dwt) (40,000-64,999 dwt) (10,000-39,999 dwt)
EEXI: Energy Efficiency Existing Ship Index
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24 U-MING Presentation Source: Clarksons WFR
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低運力成長有利航運市場景氣復甦
Lower growth of tonnage as a result of fewer deliveries and an impetus for recoveries
Bulkcarrier supply-demand trend
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6%
5%
4.0%
4%
Dry bulk tonne mile growth
3%
2.6%
2%
1%
Bulkcarrier fleet growth
0%
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 (f) 2022 (f)
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25 U-MING Presentation Source: Clarksons SIN
26 U-MING Presentation
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自有船隊持續汰舊換新轉型優化
Driving a fleet of eco-efficiency for a sustainable tomorrow
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Handymax
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Cape Panamax Handymax
9 10 69%
100% 50% 10
8
6 35%
6 38%
44%
U-Ming Dry Bulk U-Ming Dry Bulk U-Ming Dry Bulk U-Ming Dry Bulk U-Ming Dry Bulk U-Ming Dry Bulk
Age Eco' vessels, % dwt (rhs) Age Eco' vessels, % dwt (rhs) Age Eco' vessels, % dwt (rhs)
27 U-MING Presentation
Source: Clarksons WFR
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27 U-MING Presentation Source: Clarksons WFR
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履行承諾善盡船東責任船隊達標溫室氣體排放標準
Upgraded vessels sitting within "greener" GHG Rating bands
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Size Score & (+)
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28 U-MING Presentation Source: RightShip
+ upgraded with energy saving equipment to operate more efficiently than designed.
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策略聯盟共享合資夥伴優勢拓展業務規模 Joint ventures expansion to leverage partners' advantages
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29 U-MING Presentation
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多元經營分散市場風險 Diversity of fleet to diminish market risk
海岬型 Capesize, 33% 巴拿馬極限型 Panamax, 29% 超大型礦砂船 VLOC, 4% 風電船 Offshore Wind Vessel, 4% 輕便型 Supramax/ Ultramax, 12% 油輪 Oil Tanker, 10% 水泥船 Cement Carrier, 8%
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* 百分比依艘數計算
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30 U-MING Presentation
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簽訂長期合約建立穩定獲利
Long-term contract portfolio to secure stable profit
VALE 25-year COA
2 x 325,000-dwt VLOC started in 2020Q3
Anglo American 10-year Time Charter 4 x 190,000-dwt dual-fuel Tier III Capesize to be started in 2023Q1
1-4 year Time/Voyage Charter with major iron ore miners, grain traders, steel companies, power companies
7-year Bareboat Charter 2 x ROC-flag WS25 CTV started in 2021Q1
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31 U-MING Presentation
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綠色節能船隊績效超越市場
Green ships outperforming the market over the past 5 years
US$/Day (net)
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32 U-MING Presentation
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綠色能源船隊擴建創新領先市場
Fleet expansion of LNG-powered vessels and offshore wind vessels
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-
190,000-dwt fueled by LNG and equipped with MAN high-pressure ME-GI engines
-
2
-
Expected reduction of CO emissions and negligible levels of methane slippage
-
Energy-saving installations:
-
Mewis duct
-
Propeller boss cap fin
-
Alpha lubricator
-
Fleet Safety Management system
-
Fleet Performance Management system
///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Crew Transfer Vessel
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-
Flag: R.O.C.
-
Hull: Aluminum alloy trimaran
-
World patent: Soft Bow – active gangway
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33
U-MING Presentation
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THANK YOU
34 U-MING Presentation