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Telefonica S.A. — Investor Presentation 2020
May 7, 2020
1889_iss_2020-05-07_59a3eb4b-19de-4197-8328-a2d98e070578.pdf
Investor Presentation
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Results
January - March 2020

Disclaimer
This document and any related conference call or webcast (including any related Q&A session) may contain forward-looking statements and information (hereinafter, the "Statements") relating to the Telefónica Group (hereinafter, the "Company" or "Telefónica") or otherwise. These Statements may include financial forecasts and estimates or statements regarding plans, objectives and expectations regarding matters such as the customer base and its evolution, growth of the different business lines and of the global business, market share, possible acquisitions, divestitures or other transactions, the Company's results and other aspects related to the activity and situation of the Company.
The Statements can be identified, in certain cases, through the use of words such as "forecast", "expectation", "anticipation", "aspiration", "purpose", "belief" "may", "will", "would", "could", "plan", "project" or similar expressions or variations of such expressions. These Statements reflect the current views of Telefónica with respect to future events, do not represent, by their own nature, any guarantee of future fulfilment, and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause the final developments and results to materially differ from those expressed or implied by such Statements. These risks and uncertainties include those identified in the documents containing more comprehensive information filed by Telefónica before the different supervisory authorities of the securities markets in which its shares are listed and, in particular, the Spanish National Securities Market Commission (CNMV). They also include risks relating to the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on Telefónica's business, financial condition, results of operations and/or cash flows.
Except as required by applicable law, Telefónica does not assume any obligation to publicly update the Statements to adapt them to events or circumstances taking place after the date hereof, including changes in the Company's business, changes in its business development strategy or any other circumstances.
This document and any related conference call or webcast (including any related Q&A session) may contain summarized, non-audited or non-GAAP financial information. The information contained herein and therein should therefore be considered as a whole and in conjunction with all the public information regarding the Company available, including any other documents released by the Company that may contain more detailed information. Information related to Alternative Performance Measures (APM) used in this presentation are included in Telefónica's consolidated financial statements and consolidated management report for the year 2019 submitted to the CNMV, in Note 2, page 19 of the pdf filed. Recipients of this document are invited to read it.
Neither this document nor any related conference call or webcast (including any related Q&A session) nor any of their contents constitute an offer to purchase, sale or exchange any security, a solicitation of any offer to purchase, sale or exchange any security, or a recommendation or advice regarding any security.
Creating a leading communications provider in the UK
Mr. José María Álvarez-Pallete Chairman & CEO

Transaction Summary


Transaction Structure and Key Terms


Stronger, larger and more sustainable player

EUR/GBP converted at 0.877; HK/GBP converted at 0.100; USD/GBP converted at 0.808. Source: Companies Information, Analysys Mason, Ampere Analysis, GlobalCom. Excluding M2M subscribers and including MVNO subscribers. (1) Pro-forma of run-rate synergies; (2) Financials for BT are LTM Dec-19A, excluding Global Services and Openreach; (3) Financials for Vodafone are LTM Dec-19A (Vodafone reports regional results half-yearly); (4) Sky UK financials based on 2019E broker estimates; (5) 3 UK financials are 2019A (reported in December 2019); (6) Talk Talk financials are 2019A statutory results (reported in March 2019); (7) Excluding Virgin Media MVNO subscribers; (8) Excluding Project Lightning.
Compelling and differentiated value proposition


National Connectivity Champion
Telefonica UK network: Highly competitive and cost-effective 5G ready mobile infrastructure
Virgin Media UK network: High performance & Ultrafast Today and Future proof for tomorrow
- 99% population 4G coverage and consistently recognized as most reliable and best coverage network

• Access to the largest tower portfolio in the UK with 15k sites through its 50% stake in CTIL

• Successful long term relationship with Vodafone extended to 5G & Industry-led single rural network progressing

• O2 5G already live in 30 places and will reach 50 towns and cities by summer 2020

• Strong holding of <1GHz frequency, resulting in best in-door coverage; ongoing network optimization with spectrum refarming

• 100% of VM UK homes DOCSIS 3.1 hardware ready and 100% 1Gbps coverage in 2021

• 15 million homes passed of which 14.3 million are HFC and 0.7 million are FTTP/RFOG

- Access network 100% ducted in owned ducts, 0% aerial, creating flexibility in upgrade path to future coaxial or fibre
-
8m km of fibre strands of which the access network is 7.3m km
-
Analogue TV and FM over cable radio services decommission complete
- ✓ Unique infrastructure in Europe to seize new opportunities arising from Fixed-Mobile convergence ✓ No network monetization to date – retains ownership of its mobile and fixed infrastructure ✓ Clear market leader in UBB (FTTP, HFC)

Identified synergies of c.£6.25 bn NPV, with 80% of full potential related to OpEx and CapEx synergies


Transaction fully consistent with TEF's strategy

Governance, Exit and Timetable
| Governance / Shareholders Agreement |
• The JV Board of Directors will consist of eight members, four from each of Liberty Global and Telefonica • Certain matters will require unanimous approval of both companies' representatives • The position of Chairman of the JV will be held for alternating 24 month periods by a Telefónica or Liberty Global appointed director. The Chairman has no casting vote • Key management positions will be announced prior to completion of the transaction |
|---|---|
| Exit | • 3 year lock-up • Each shareholder has the right to initiate an Initial Public Offering of the JV after the third anniversary of closing, with the opportunity for the other shareholder to sell shares in the IPO on a pro-rata basis • The parties have agreed restrictions on other transfers of interests in the JV until the fifth anniversary of closing ‒ After the fifth anniversary, each shareholder will be able to initiate a sale of the entire JV to a third party, subject to a right of first offer in favour of the other shareholder |
| Expected Transaction (1) Timetable |
• Transaction notifiable to the European Commission (EC) • The transaction may be referred back and require clearance by the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) • If approved at Phase 1, closing would take place in Q4 2020 - Q3 2021 • If approved at Phase 2, closing would take place in Q2 2021 - Q1 2022 |

Closing Remarks
- Creating a leading integrated player with significant cross-selling opportunities in the second largest European market, improving market positioning, group profile and business sustainability
- Combining Telefonica UK's leading mobile operations and Virgin Media UK's extensive superfast broadband network to benefit consumers, businesses and the public sector through investment to accelerate digital infrastructure deployment and improving customer experience
- Significant value creation: total cost, capex and revenue synergies with an estimated NPV of c.£6.25bn (after integration costs), additional financial / fiscal synergies not considered
- M&A processes in 2 (UK and Brazil) out of 4 core markets, progressing on the New Telefonica strategy
- Substantial value creation for Telefónica shareholders
- ‒ Stronger converged challenger in the UK market, leading in customers and profitability
- ‒ Improving growth profile and market positioning
- ‒ FCF accretive(1) from the outset
- ‒ Transaction expected to reduce Telefonica's net debt by £5.5-5.8bn(2)
- ‒ Credit positive improving competitive positioning and long term business sustainability

COVID 19 implications Q1 20 highlights
Mr. José María Álvarez-Pallete Chairman & CEO

Telecoms proving essential; responding all stakeholders

Evidence-based mission: "Making our world more human by connecting lives"

Doing well; not immune, but relatively well protected
Potential hit…
- Managing impacts; yet uncharted territory
- Pressure on B2B revs (SMEs; corporates with higher exposure to COVID19; sales funnel, com. activity…)
- Pressure on B2C revs (roaming, prepaid, lower traffic to stores)
- Potential increase in bad debt
- Potential supply chain/network/handset inventory disruptions
…but relatively well protected
- Demand for telcos on the rise; potential for further monetization
- Stable L/T revenue base: flat rate contracts, L/T customers
- High quality, future-proof asset base (e.g. Fiber networks)
- OIBDA better covered than top line (costs relief, lower churn…)
- Social goodwill earned (close to society needs & all stakeholders)
| FCF Buffers from top to bottom |
• • • |
Upselling of digital services, specially Cybersecurity and Cloud Higher demand in some services (TV consumption, content fiction; VoD, higher BB speeds) Accelerate digitalization; strengthen on-line channels; transform network/ IT |
We need to adapt to new reality |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| • | Decrease in churn, commercial costs, advertising | Levers to |
||
| • • |
Discretionary CapEx management = OIBDA-CapEx shelter Delay of spectrum auctions (Spain, UK, Brazil) |
secure FCF |
||

2022 Guidance and 2020 €0.4 dividend reiterated
2022 Guidance Confirmed
| Financial Targets (organic ex-contribution to growth from ARG) |
Guidance 2019-2022E |
|---|---|
| Revenues | Revenue growth |
| (OIBDA-CapEx)/ Revenues | +2 p.p. by 2022 |
Despite current uncertainty; confidence in future demand growth for connectivity, digital services…
2020 Stable &Sustainable Dividend
| 2020 Dividend |
€0.40/Share | |
|---|---|---|
| Interim Dec-20 | €0.20/sh. (Voluntary Scrip) |
|
| Final Jun-21 | €0.20/sh. |
| 2020 calendar payments | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun/20 €0.20/sh. (Voluntary Scrip) |
||||
| Dec/20 €0.20/sh. (Voluntary Scrip) |
Confidence in business model flexibility to weather current environment, coupled with solid liquidity position & business resiliency
2020 Guidance Withdrawn; significant changes in context & high level of uncertainty

Q1 20 Results
Mr. Ángel Vilá COO

Financial summary
| € in millions | Q1 20 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reported | Reported y-o-y |
Organic y-o-y |
Organic y-o-y aggregated 4 core markets |
||
| Revenues | 11,366 | (5.1%) | (1.3%) | 0.1% | |
| OIBDA | 3,760 | (11.8%) | (1.7%) | 0.8% | |
| OIBDA margin | 33.1% | (2.5 p.p.) | (0.1 p.p.) | 0.2 p.p. | |
| OIBDA-CapEx (ex-spectrum) |
2,275 | (16.6%) | (3.8%) | 3.2% | |
| OIBDA-CapEx / Revenues (ex-spectrum) |
20.0% | (2.8 p.p.) | (0.5 p.p.) | 0.7 p.p. | |
| Net Income | 406 | (56.2%) | |||
| EPS (€) | 0.06 | (62.0%) | |||
| FCF (inc. leases principal payments) |
233 | (83.4%) | |||
| Net Financial Debt ex-leases |
38,223 | (5.3%) |

€0.11 Underlying EPS
Q1 seasonal effect; Q1 19 tax refund €702m
Reduction of €14Bn since Jun-16
Q1 COVID 19 impacts;
Revenues (-€77m); OIBDA (-€33m); CapEx (-€17m)

Spain | The most reliable and advanced telco in Europe

✓ No TV lock in period
Leading content platform
Proof-tested network
- ✓ Outstanding delivery with record traffic (both retail & wholesale)
- ✓ Critical connectivity on top quality assets
- Largest FTTH network & digitalisation
- ✓ Effective remote activity
- Best in class Cloud, Security, Big Data
-
50% activity in online/phone channel
- ✓ Value added to the offer for free
- MBB, Premium TV (even to non-customers)
39.8% 11.2% 28.6% OIBDA/Revs. CapEx/Revs. (OIBDA-CapEx)/ Revs. Prudent OpEx/CapEx policy 5G auction delayed y-o-y organic + 0.9 p.p.
Key financials Sound (OIBDA-CapEx)/Revs.; cash in focus

Germany | Robust start to year
Good commercial performance
Accesses (m, y-o-y)

Gaining momentum across all revenue lines

Solid trading
- ✓ Good contract momentum of O2 brand; blended ARPU stable and contract churn -0.1 p.p. y-o-y
- ✓ Sustained VDSL demand: +36k net adds; 76% o/FBB
- ✓ Resilient network coping with COVID-19 traffic increase
- ✓ Supporting employees, customers and the wider society
- ✓ 4G/LTE steady progress; preparing 5G deployment

Improving profitability
UK | Once again outperforming the market

Continued contract customer growth
Accesses (m; y-o-y)
Another solid quarter
- ✓ Largest UK network carrier
- ✓ Continued revenue and OIBDA growth
- ✓ Market leading loyalty with 1% contract churn
- ✓ Exclusive agreement for mobile distribution of Disney+
- ✓ Continued investment momentum in network
15th consecutive quarter of y-o-y top-line growth

COVID -19 – keeping communities connected
- ✓ Network voice and data resilience
- ✓ Industry cooperation and ongoing dialog w/ government
- ✓ Existing processes supporting vulnerable customers
- ✓ Free access to NHS and 22 additional websites
- ✓ Connectivity provision for Nightingale hospitals

Brazil | Predictable & resilient FCF generation
Strengthened market leadership
Market Share (Feb-20)

Exposed to most valuable segments
Accesses Penetration (m; y-o-y)

• Accelerating Fiber deployment to 11.7m
- homes passed
- New alternative FTTH expansion models to boost Fiber connections
Resilient Business
- ✓ Better fixed and mobile network in the market
- ✓ Low prepaid impact & handset exposure (~10% & ~5% of Total Revs)
- ✓ Highest contract penetration in the market
- ✓ Robust OIBDA-Capex/Revs (22.5% 2019; 27.7% Q1)
- ✓ Solid FCF generation
Sustainable business model
Q1 y-o-y organic


Telxius | Growth and margin; continuing tower expansion


Q1 20 Results
Ms. Laura Abasolo CFCO

Hispam | Working on transformation; increasing efficiencies

Large accesses base
Accesses Penetration (m; y-o-y)
Higher penetration in valuable segments

Simplification to support cash generation
- ✓ Largest Fiber network in the region (9.0m FTTH homes passed)
- ✓ Prepaid less relevant (~11% of Total Revenues)
- ✓ High contract penetration (24%)
- ✓ Digitalisation process is still on-going
- ✓ Achieving CapEx efficiencies
Strongly affected by competition in Peru & Chile

Currency headwinds structurally neutralised
Effects on FX moves
y-o-y
- ✓ BRL; major drag in Q1 Revenue & OIBDA y-o-y
- ✓ Revenue: Q1: -3.2 p.p. y-o-y
- ✓ OIBDA: Q1: -3.5 p.p. y-o-y
- ✓ -€151m at OIBDA down to -€20m in FCF
- ✓ FX reduce net debt (-€824m 12 month rolling)
FX impact neutralised at FCF level
€m; Q1 20 FX impact

Actively hedging 2020 Cash flows of Brazil and UK

Slight debt increase on hybrids amortisation

Strong liquidity position coupled with smooth maturity profile

Financing activity from June 16 to YTD

Net Debt maturities
Mar-20 | €bn; not considering hybrid NC dates

Strengthening debt profile
Mar-20


Conclusion
Mr. José María Álvarez-Pallete Chairman & COO

Conclusion | Sustainable; Long term focus

Resilient business
- Robust, reliable and secure network
- Good liquidity; BS in a good shape
- Society; serve everyone everywhere
- Protecting human rights in our value chain
- Customers; enable safety through P&S
- Employees; ensure protected continuity
- Provide support to providers
- Progression in sustainable model; growth, efficiency and trust
2020 Dividend and 2022 Guidance reiterated



For further information: Investor Relations Tel. +34 91 482 87 00 [email protected] www.telefonica.com/investors
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