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Telefonica S.A. — Investor Presentation 2017
Sep 30, 2017
1889_ip_2017-09-30_77e2dd6d-d53f-460a-b859-f2100ad1704f.pdf
Investor Presentation
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Results January – September 2017_
Disclaimer
This document and the conference-call webcast (including the Q&A session) may contain forward-looking statements and information (hereinafter, the "Statements") relating to the Telefónica Group (hereinafter, the "Company" or "Telefónica") or otherwise. These Statements may include financial forecasts and estimates based on assumptions or statements regarding plans, objectives and expectations that make reference to different matters, such as the customer base and its evolution, growth of the different business lines and of the global business, market share, possible acquisitions, divestitures or other transactions, Company results and other aspects related to the activity and situation of the Company.
The Statements can be identified, in certain cases, through the use of words such as "forecast", "expectation", "anticipation", "aspiration", "purpose", "belief" or similar expressions or variations of such expressions. These Statements reflect the current views of Telefónica with respect to future events, do not represent, by their own nature, any guarantee of future fulfilment, and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause the final developments and results to materially differ from those expressed or implied by such Statements. These risks and uncertainties include those identified in the documents containing more comprehensive information filed by Telefónica before the different supervisory authorities of the securities markets in which its shares are listed and, in particular, the Spanish National Securities Market Commission.
Except as required by applicable laws, Telefónica does not assume any obligation to publicly update the Statements to adapt them to events or circumstances taking place after the date hereof, including changes in the Company's business or business development strategy or any other unexpected circumstance.
This document and the conference-call webcast (including the Q&A session) may contain summarized, non-audited or non-GAAP financial information. The information contained herein and therein should therefore be considered as a whole and in conjunction with all the public information regarding the Company available, including any other documents released by the Company that may contain more detailed information.
In October 2015, the European Securities Markets Authority (ESMA) published guidelines on Alternative Performance Measures (APM), applicable to regulated information published from July 3, 2016. Information and disclosure related to APM used in this presentation are included in the Appendix. Recipients of this document are invited to read our condensed consolidated interim financial statements and consolidated interim management report for 2017 submitted to the Spanish National Securities Market Commission.
Neither this document nor the conference-call webcast (including the Q&A session) nor any of their contents constitute an offer to purchase, sale or exchange any securities, a solicitation of any offer to purchase, sale or exchange of any securities, or a recommendation or advice regarding any security.
Q3: Solid execution on key priorities
Consistent and profitable organic growth
Growing strategic KPIs: fiber, LTE supporting customer lifetime value o Ramping-up avg. rev per access to +4.3% y-o-y; churn control
- Revenue acceleration to +4.0% y-o-y; Spain back to service rev. growth
- Continued OIBDA growth (+2.8% y-o-y); in spite of RLAH dragging -1.7 p.p.
- 9M EPS €0.44; +8.7% y-o-y
Company transformation (more efficient and improving resource allocation)
Reinforcing Balance Sheet
- Continued investments in best network; CapEx intensity starts reducing
- Delivering results from cost initiatives and synergies integration
- Leveraging on digitalisation; improving operating leverage & differentiation
-
Cognitive Intelligence ("Aura"); new relationship of trust (increase loyalty and reduce churn)
-
One more quarter of net debt reduction (-€2.4Bn y-o-y) to €47.2Bn (Sep-17)
- o Incl. sale of 40% Telxius: €45.9Bn; -€3.6Bn (-7.4% y-o-y)
- Strong 9M FCF: €3,226m; +39.2% y-o-y; Q3: €1,600; +6.7%
- Positive bond refinancing: long-term and historical low levels
On track to deliver FY outlook
| 2017E Guidance (Organic) |
Guidance 2017E | 9M 17 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | >1.5% (in spite of regulation: ~-1.2 p.p.) |
2.9% (regulation -1.1 p.p.) |
| OIBDA margin | Expansion up to 1 p.p. | 0.3 p.p. |
| CapEx ex-spectrum/Sales |
Around 16% | 14.1% |
| 2017 Dividend | To be paid in 2017/18 |
|---|---|
| Interim Dec-17 | €0.20/sh. Cash |
| Final Jun-18 | €0.20/sh. Cash |
| Dividends to be paid in 2017 calendar year amount to €0.40/sh.: | ||
|---|---|---|
| | Cash dividend already paid on 16th Jun-17; €0.20/sh. | |
| | Cash dividend 14th Dec-17; €0.20/sh. |
MAINTAINING A SOLID INVESTMENT GRADE RATING
Growth + Sustainable Dividend + Deleverage
Summary: Financials
| 9M 17 | Q3 17 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| € in millions |
Reported | Reported y-o-y |
Organic y-o-y |
Reported | Reported y-o-y |
Organic y-o-y |
|
| Revenue | 38,846 | 1.4% | 2.9% | 12,754 | (2.5%) | 4.0% | |
| Service revenues | 35,970 | 1.3% | 2.7% | 11,746 | (3.3%) | 3.3% | |
| OIBDA | 12,274 | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4,095 | (1.9%) | 2.8% | |
| OIBDA Margin | 31.6% | 0.5 p.p. | 0.3 p.p. | 32.1% | 0.2 p.p. | (0.4 p.p.) | |
| OpCF (ex-spectrum) |
6,815 | 8.9% | 9.2% | 2,138 | (0.3%) | 2.0% | |
| Net Income | 2,439 | 9.6% | 839 | (14.7%) | |||
| EPS | 0.44 | 8.7% | 0.15 | (17.5%) | |||
| FCF | 3,226 | 39.2% | 1,600 | 6.7% | |||
| Net Financial Debt |
47,222 | (4.8%) |
- Revenue growth accelerated in Q3 y-o-y org.
- OIBDA ex-regulation maintaining trends vs. H1
- 9M OIBDA margin expansion y-o-y
- High single-digit OpCF growth vs. 9M 16
- 9M FCF +39.2%
- Net debt reduction y-o-y and q-o-q
Bottom line increased by 10%, with EPS €0.44
(1) Q2: Capital loss in Mediaset Premium and CU; impairment in Prisa and net effect of VZ devaluation. Q3: Contingency in ARG
Progressive improvement in FCF
Investor Relations Telefónica, S.A.
• FCF to improve in Q4 as seasonal factors impact positively • Further net debt reduction
6
Growth fuelled by organic contribution
OIBDA: Organic growth & FX impact (€m)
FX impact in 9M FCF (€m)
• Up to September, organic performance added €457m (+€119m in Q3) o FX dragged €85m or -0.7 p.p. y-o-y o RLAH ~-€70m in Q3 OIBDA • Negative FX effect in Q3 y-o-y (-5.4 p.p.) Remarkable organic trends despite regulation
- o -€224m in Q3 vs. -€51m in Q2
- o Main currencies drained y-o-y: VZ, ARS, GBP, BRL
- FX persist as a headwind in H2 17 at current spot rates
- 9M OIBDA FX drag was offset at FCF level
Revenue trends ramped-up
Strong and quality top line
- Q3 revenues accelerated +90 bps
- Q3 service revs increased y-o-y in all segments, except Germany
- o Better performance in Spain; explains most of the improvement
- Growth engines contributing in Q3
- o Spain back to growth in service revs y-o-y
- o Hispam improved 60 bps to +14.3% y-o-y service revs
- o Mobile data revs +16.3% y-o-y
- 9M BB Connectivity & SoC revs. gaining ground to 51% o/total
- Robust commercial momentum
- o Continued growth on high value base
- o "M4M" and portfolio optimisation
- o Innovation & Big Data capabilities increasing differentiation
Revenue growth based on successful data monetisation
Mobile Data Revenues (€m)
FTTH (Q3 17)
9
Several levers to foster data revenues
• Prepaid recurrent plans in Latam boost ARPU growth
- o High penetration: >50% Brazil, ~30% Hispam
- o >10% ARPU uplift after data adoption
- "M4M" to improve value for money
- o Upselling strategy in Spain
- o New postpaid portfolio in BRA
- o New "O2 Free" portfolio in GER with ARPU up potential
- o Video dedicated data in COL and PER
- o Family plans in mobile only & convergent portfolios
- Neuropricing: Improving value mix
- o Being rapidly deployed: 12 countries
- o Proven value accretion (+5% ARPU of gross adds)
- A new prepaid concept (APP's) leveraging digital capabilities
- o MEX: Flexible, Real Time control, reward programme
- o BRA: Community data sharing, data rollover
Generating profitability and cash
Investor Relations Telefónica, S.A.
Positive OIBDA: operating leverage increase
- Committed to improve efficiency and operational excellence
- Q3 y-o-y OIBDA maintaining trends ex-regulation
- o RLAH -1.7 p.p. impact in Q3
- o Tougher comparisons in ARG, lower real estate cap. gains in Spain
- Well diversified 9M OIBDA growth; margin expanding
- 9M OpCF +9.2% y-o-y
10
- o CapEx intensity begins to lessen (-2.3% y-o-y)
- o Smart investments associated with further business transformation
Upselling existing customer relationships
Digital Services: differentiated offering
Other digital services (21% o/9M Dig. Revs.) include: Advertising, Applications and Financial Services
TGR: progressing on UBB & digitalisation
Telefónica, S.A.
At the forefront of digitalisation
DRIVER FOR DIFFERENTIATION AND EFFICIENCY
E2E digitalisation programme underway
LEVER TO TRANSFORM CUSTOMER PROCESSES … Impact on Operations … AND ALSO TO TRANSFORM OUR NETWORK • Automation and real-time processes • Fostering digital channels • Reducing assisted channels interactions • Improving customer experience • All-IP Networks • Radical network virtualisation: "UNICA" • NFV/SDN • Using Big Data o Network deployment optimisation o Network capacity planning o E2E service quality management Commissions & payments IMPACTING DIRECTLY ON COST STRUCTURE Customer care Technical support Invoice printing & sending Back-office and commercial Costs Increasing unique users in app/web Increasing the interactions in digital channels Reducing calls to call center Reducing orders with manual intervention and incidents Network OpEx reduction CapEx optimisation Faster deployments Flexible network management
Digitalisation bearing clear benefits in Spain
Transformation process started in 2012 towards building a leaner and more competitive Company
Simplification programmes and Full Stack have driven benchmark efficiency and business process enhancement
| Tangible Benefits | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commercial | Var 12-17E |
2017E | ||
| • Portfolio simplification • Channels optimisation (size /mix/ efficiency) • Automated processes (E2ED front and back) • Fostering online experience |
Share of sales online Points of sale Unique digital users Handset subsidies |
+20 p.p. (63%) --- (97%) |
24% --- 41% --- |
Improved TTM Improved CSI Commercial costs (-67% in 12-17E) |
| Network & Operations | Var | 12-17 E | 2017 E | Lower failures |
| • NGN deployment (FTTH/LTE) • Network optimisation • Legacy network/platforms switch-off |
Failures/access (41%) Remote solved incidents --- 82% Calls to call center/access (50%) --- Legacy closed --- 65% |
Energy efficiency Sale of freed assets Increase FTTH take Revenue increase Lower unitary |
||
| IT & Systems | Var 12-17 E |
maintenance cost of | ||
| • Transformation operating model • Virtualisation/automation • Simplification |
Reduction of: Systems Servers Data centers Platforms |
(19%) (47%) (57%) (28%) |
customer equipment: FTTH vs. Copper -40% OpEx+CapEx Systems: (-37% in 12-17E) |
|
| Organisation | 9M 17 annualised | |||
| • Workforce simplification |
Productivity (OpCF/employee) | €128k | Productivity (+9% in 14-9M 17A) |
Digitalisation being gradually adopted group-wide
SELF-MANAGEMENT LEVEL, PROCESS AUTOMATION
BRAZIL EXAMPLE
Impact on Operations…
% of sales in selfassisted channels
% Remotely resolved incidents
… is boosted by BUSINESS INITIATIVES to become digital
- … Initiatives promoting the use of digital channels
- … Simplify and communicate our value proposition
- … Boosting e-billing and new payment methods
- … Initiatives for filtering calls towards self-assisted channels
… Promotion of field operations improvement (problems diagnosis, traceability, …)
… and supported by key TECHNOLOGICAL ENABLERS
| Full Stack | Providing automated, real-time processes and 360˚ customer view |
|---|---|
| Online Charging |
Enabling real-time spend control and data sharing |
| Payment Systems |
Providing new payment methods |
| Network Diagnosis |
Systems providing service monitoring, remote diagnosis and resolution, self healing … |
| App / NOVUM | New app for a differential self management experience |
Ms. Laura Abasolo CFCO
Spain: Recovered momentum; focus on value
Better trading on enhanced positioning
- Positive volumes from new "Fusión" packs (launched in July)
- o Q3 gross adds recovery: "Fusión" (+16% y-o-y), FBB (+13%)
- o Best contract quarterly net adds in last 10 years
- o FBB net adds (+29k q-o-q)
• Better "Fusión" customer mix
- o Consistent ARPU growth, accelerating in Q3
- o UBB penetration (39%; +4 p.p. y-o-y); TV (73%; +5 p.p.)
- o Upgrades offsetting limited downgrades
Clear focus on convergence upselling
• Value oriented strategy
- o Segmentation of the offer; ARPU & loyalty increase
- Clear market-leadership in network & service quality
- o LTE: 97% pop. cov.
- o 18.6m premises passed FTTH (>60% households)
- o Exclusive TV content and functionalities
Spain: Improved revenue trends; strong OpCF
2017 Financials (y-o-y organic)
2017 Service Revenues by segment (y-o-y organic)
Consumer Business Wholesale & other revenues
y-o-y organic ex-real estate sale
Back to growth in Service Revenue
- Consumer revs. ramping-up (+1.0 p.p. q-o-q)
- Business revs. (+0.2 p.p. q-o-q) affected by IT seasonality
- Wholesale & Other revs. improved trend (+3.2 p.p. q-o-q)
- o Comparable wholesale TV revs. from mid-August
- o FTTH wholesale increase
- o Marginally positive impact from RLAH
High operating leverage, strong upside
- Q3 OpEx +0.2% y-o-y (-1.2% in Q2)
- o (+) Personnel savings
- o (-) Handsets, roaming-out, content cost
- Q3 OIBDA margin: 41.0%; -0.1 p.p. y-o-y ex-real estate sale
- High visibility on CapEx reduction
- Growing OpCF throughout the year
Germany: Data monetisation opportunity ahead
MSR MSR ex-regulation (y-o-y organic) (1.8%) (2.1%) (3.3%) (3.0%) (3.6%) (2.7 p.p.) Regulation (0.9%) (0.9%) (0.6%) (0.4%) (0.1%) Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 (2.6 p.p.) (2.7 p.p.)
Telefónica, S.A.
Larger data buckets
- Stimulating data usage (mobile data traffic +49% vs Q3 16)
- o Commercial activities O2 Free 15 & new O2 Free portf. (Sep.)
- o O2 Free 15 cust. data usage > 5GB; ARPU-up potential
- Solid momentum: Contract (+4% y-o-y); 183k net adds
- o LTE cust. (+48% y-o-y); penetration 36% (+11p.p.); cov. (81%)
- o Resilient partner contribution (Q3: 53% of gross adds; 9M: 55%)
Strong cash conversion
- Better revenue trends y-o-y (Q3: -1.3%; 9M:-3.1%)
- o Q3 MRS ex-reg: continued gradual improvement
- Q3 OIBDA y-o-y reflecting
- o Higher commercial efforts
- o Regulation headwinds (-€28m in Q3, mostly related to RLAH)
- o ~ €40m incremental OIBDA synergies (~€115m in 9M)
- Lower CapEx intensity (-7.4% y-o-y in 9M 17); ~€50m synergies
UK: Sustained top line growth in spite of RLAH
Continued customer growth in a challenging market Strong operational base and KPIs
- Contract expanding: 63% o/total (+1 p.p.)
- o Sustained, best-in-class contract churn: 1.0% in Q3
- 58% LTE penetration (+6 p.p.); 98% outdoor cov. (+5 p.p.)
- Avg. data usage per smartphone +55% vs. Q3 16; 2.1 GB per month
Financials reflecting RLAH impact
- Total revenue growth
-
- Higher spend: subscription (larger data allowances) & out-of-bundle
-
- Quality customer base growth
- Q3 OIBDA impacted by RLAH effect (€48m)
- CapEx +0.6% vs. 9M 16; LTE rollout investment
Brazil: Enhancing best-in-class value positioning
Contract net adds 2017 ('000)
Expanding differentiation gap
• Network quality widening
- o 76% population 4G cov.; 1,919 cities already covered (700 MHz spectrum in 199 cities)
- o 18.0m premises passed with FTTx; 4.5m connected
- 12 new cities in 2017: 40% already connected o/premises passed & 82% m. share
• Growing in strategic accesses (higher ARPU)
- o Contract +10%; ARPU 4x vs prepay
- o 4G +73%
- o FTTx +9%; ARPU 1.2x vs Copper
- o IPTV +54%; ARPU 1.2x vs DTH
- o New contract portfolio from October 23rd; unique and innovating features aligned with "M4M" strategy
- Outperforming the market
- o Mobile: 42.3% contract m. share; ~46% net adds share in Jan-Aug
- o Fixed: 36.6% FBB>34 Mbps m. share
Brazil: Delivering growth; expanding profitability
Data driving steady positive revs performance
- Q3 Revenue growth +1.2% y-o-y (9M; +1.5%)
- o Healthy MSR performance (Q3: +3.8% y-o-y) on data revs. (+28.2%) despite tougher comps
- o Gradual improvement in fixed revs y-o-y on fiber revs. (+21.9%) and IPTV (+76.9%)
- Regulation dragging 1.9 p.p. on Q3 revenue y-o-y
Expansion in OIBDA & OpCF margins
- Consistent OpEx y-o-y reduction (Q3: -1.1%; 9M: -0.8%) on efficiency measures
- o 7 consecutive quarters with OpEx reduction
- o Digitalisation initiatives bearing fruits (billing and collection, top-ups, call-center…)
- Successful execution of operational synergies (OpCF 9M; €392m; €939m over last two years)
HispAm: Improved commercial traction
2017 ARPU (y-o-y local currency)
FBB Pay TV Mobile
Focus on value • LTE cov. 56% (+8 p.p. y-o-y); 6.2m premises passed FTTx & Cable (+2.1m LTM) o Record net adds in Q3 for LTE (2.8m; 9M 6.2m) & FTTx/cable (249k; 9M 492k) • ARGENTINA: Growing uptake of contract; LTE & fiber driving data traffic up (9M: +76% mobile; +41% fixed)
- CHILE: Back to positive net adds (contract 27k; LTE 331k; FTTx 12k; Pay TV 13k)
- PERU: Solid trading in fixed; record FTTx net adds (146k); reshaped commercial portfolio driving signs of recovery in mobile
- COLOMBIA: Robust commercial performance; fostering adoption of FTTx (32k Q3 net adds) & LTE (538k)
- MEXICO: Sound contract (+15%) and LTE (+55%) accesses growth & easing pricing pressure. Positive ARPU (Q3: +3.9% y-o-y)
HispAm: Solid revenues & OIBDA; OpCF +26.8%
2017 Revenues (y-o-y organic)
Delivering growth
- Solid MSR and fixed growth (Q3: +19.0% and +5.6%, respectively)
- o Mobile data revs. acceleration Q3: +38.2%; +3.5 p.p. q-o-q
- o Double-digit growth in FBB & new services (Q3:+10.0% Q2:+7.3%) and pay TV (Q3: +11.1%; Q2: +13.4%)
-
Q3 OIBDA margin -1.8 p.p. y-o-y (inflation driven costs, higher commercial efforts & tougher comparisons)
-
ARGENTINA: Outstanding growth across all metrics (Q3 Revs. + 30.6% & OIBDA +37.8%; 9M OpCF >4x)
- CHILE: Enhanced top line trend despite competition. 9M OpCF +5.5% y-o-y to €258m
- PERU: Better revs & OIBDA performance amid continued competition; OIBDA margin +2.5 p.p. q-o-q
- COLOMBIA: Tougher comps in rev & OIBDA growth. 9M OpCF +39.1%
- MEXICO: Consolidating positive rev. growth despite earthquake
Telxius: Solid operational momentum
Strong set of results • 9M financials; strong revenue growth and solid profitability o Revenues: €547m o OIBDA: €261m o OpCF: €126m • Robust OIBDA margin across both businesses o Sequential decline on seasonal taxes and hurricanes effect • Infrastructure; expanding the reach o Tenancy ratio improved +0.03x vs. Dec. 16 in Q3 17 o Argentina added 304 towers & 539 tenants to the perimeter o Stimulating traffic demand and revenue growth in Cable • Developing the 2 new cables (to be active in 2018) o MAREA (connecting US & Spain) wet plant deployment already completed Sept. 17 o BRUSA (connecting Brazil, Puerto Rico & USA) construction as planned
Deleverage on strong organic FCF and disposals
Net Financial Debt (€m)
Stronger balance sheet and credit profile
Net Debt maturities (Sep-17)
(€bn; not considering hybrid NC dates)
Liquidity position (Sep-17)
Investor Relations Telefónica, S.A.
(€bn)
Interest payments cost
28
Summary: executing on fundamentals
• Delivering profitable organic growth
- o Top line accelerating trends; sound OIBDA performance despite regulation, high-single digit OpCF growth in 9M (CapEx peak is behind)
- Best technology platforms, IT systems integration, development of new digital P&S
- o Building for the future (Cognitive Intelligence: better customer value; new value-added propositions)
- Focused on digitalisation, started with simplification and E2E task some years ago
- o Proof points already reached. Big opportunity ahead (customer experience, new revenue streams, higher efficiencies)
• Progressive leverage improvement
o Growing OIBDA, solid FCF generation and inorganic actions (40% Telxius) leading to sharp debt reduction
• Secured market position
- o Best assets in key markets
- 2017 outlook and dividend confirmed
Clear and consistent strategy: growth and digitalisation
For further information: Investor Relations Tel. +34 94 482 87 00 [email protected] www.telefonica.com/investors