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Telefonica S.A. — Investor Presentation 2016
Jun 30, 2016
1889_ip_2016-06-30_9cd09af3-8e8e-41bb-9d67-a1c6307fe795.pdf
Investor Presentation
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Results
January – June 2016
Disclaimer
This document and the conference-call webcast (including the Q&A session) may contain forward-looking statements and information (hereinafter, the "Statements") relating to the Telefónica Group (hereinafter, the "Company" or "Telefónica") or otherwise. These Statements may include financial forecasts and estimates based on assumptions or statements regarding plans, objectives and expectations that make reference to different matters, such as the customer base and its evolution, growth of the different business lines and of the global business, market share, possible acquisitions, divestitures or other transactions, Company results and other aspects related to the activity and situation of the Company.
The Statements can be identified, in certain cases, through the use of words such as "forecast", "expectation", "anticipation", "aspiration", "purpose", "belief" or similar expressions or variations of such expressions. These Statements reflect the current views of Telefónica with respect to future events, do not represent, by their own nature, any guarantee of future fulfilment, and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause the final developments and results to materially differ from those expressed or implied by such Statements. These risks and uncertainties include those identified in the documents containing more comprehensive information filed by Telefónica before the different supervisory authorities of the securities markets in which its shares are listed and, in particular, the Spanish National Securities Market Commission.
The content of this disclaimer must be taken into account by any individual or entity who may have to purchase or sell or elaborate or disseminate opinions related to any securities issued by the Company, and, in particular, by analysts and investors. Except as required by applicable laws, Telefónica does not assume any obligation to publicly update the Statements to adapt them to events or circumstances taking place after the date hereof, including changes in the Company's business or business development strategy or any other unexpected circumstance.
This document and the conference-call webcast (including the Q&A session) may contain summarized or non-audited financial information. The information contained herein and therein should therefore be considered as a whole and in conjunction with all the public information regarding the Company available, including any other documents released by the Company that may contain more detailed information.
Neither this document nor the conference-call webcast (including the Q&A session) nor any of their contents constitute an offer to purchase, sale or exchange any securities, a solicitation of any offer to purchase, sale or exchange of any securities, or a recommendation or advice regarding any security.
Mr. José María Álvarez-Pallete Chairman & CEO
Q2 16 Highlights; strategy is working
Profitable growth remained solid
Best technology platforms
Improved competitive position
Committed to deleverage
%: y-o-y organic
• Service revenue +1.5%, offsetting handset sales (-18.0%)
- o Data monetisation driver continue their positive trend (Non-SMS data revs +16.0%)
- o Av. Rev/Access +2.0% capitalising on fiber, smartphones, LTE and Pay TV
- Maintaining focus on efficiencies & merger synergies
- o Growing OIBDA, margin and OpCF
- Fiber premises passed 32.9m; LTE coverage 55% (84% in Europe)
- Building the future (new customer knowledge platform linked to Big Data; offering a differential experience)
- Spain: OpCF back to growth
- Brazil & Germany: Margins boosted by synergies (proving TEF's capacity to extract value from them)
- UK: Distinctive customer growth, loyalty and brand awareness
- Hispam: Increasing value penetration
- Best in class diversification; further improvement of operations and FX drag to ease in H2
- FCF €815m in H1 to significantly improve along the year
- Broad diversity of potential debt reduction measures, combined with attractive debt re-financing opportunity
2016 guidance; dividend & mid-term leverage confirmed
Key financials (UK full consolidation)
| H1 16 | Q2 16 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| € in millions |
Reported | Reported y-o-y |
Organic y-o-y |
Reported | Reported y-o-y |
Organic y-o-y |
| Revenue | 25,235 | (7.1%) | 1.3% | 12,723 | (7.7%) | (0.2%) |
| Service revenue | 23,364 | (5.7%) | 2.7% | 11,824 | (6.1%) | 1.5% |
| OIBDA | 7,756 | (6.4%) | 3.1% | 3,918 | (7.1%) | 0.8% |
| OIBDA Margin | 30.7% | 0.2 p.p. | 0.5 p.p. | 30.8% | 0.2 p.p. | 0.3 p.p. |
| OpCF (ex-spectrum) |
4,112 | (5.9%) | 3.3% | 1,968 | (3.1%) | 1.4% |
| Net Income | 1,241 | (42.1%) | 693 | (54.5%) | ||
| EPS | 0.23 | (45.2%) | 0.13 | (55.6%) | ||
| FCF | 815 | c.s. | 746 | c.s. | ||
| Net Financial Debt |
52,568 | 2.7% |
Negative FX effect in OIBDA offset at FCF level
H1 affected by FX and perimeter impacts
FX to ease in H2 16
- H1 16 results impacted by average FX, following sharp depreciation
- o Q3 15: BRL and COP
- o Q4 15: ARS
Perimeter impact (y-o-y)
Revenues OIBDA
Perimeter; no impact in H2 16
• GVT & DTS consolidated in May-15
Full-year guidance on track
| 2016 Guidance (Constant FX 2015; ex-VZ; ex-UK) |
Guidance 2016E | H1 16 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | >4% | +5.0% | Service Revenues |
| OIBDA margin | Stabilising vs. 2015 |
+0.1 p.p. | +6.4% |
| CapEx/Sales | Around 17% | 15.1% |
| Dividend | €0.75/sh. €0.35/sh. voluntary scrip Nov-16 €0.4/sh. cash Q2 17 |
|
|---|---|---|
| Share buyback: % share capital cancelled (treasury) (BoD to decide in H2 16) |
1.5% | |
| Mid-term target Net Financial Debt / OIBDA <2.35x |
3.20x Jun-16 |
Strong FCF performance in Q2 16
Cash generation improvement (y-o-y and q-o-q)
- Robust H1 FCF y-o-y (+€1,009m) on the back of:
- o Better performance of OpCF in Q2
- o Lower spectrum, CapEx, financial payments & minorities
- o Higher WC consumption (partly due to spectrum) & slightly higher taxes impacted by non-recurrents in H1 15
- FCF sequential improvement (+€677m) mainly due to WC and financial expenses, offsetting higher taxes, Capex and minorities
FCFS (€)
FCF to improve in H2 16
- Expected improvement in operational performance (OIBDA)
- Lower FX headwinds
- Seasonality of WC & other factors
Continued strong momentum with quality customers
Securing a distinctive top-line growth profile
- Exploiting growth opportunities to foster service revenues
- o X2 LTE accesses vs. Jun-15
- o 1.7m smartphones added to base in Q2
- o +31% y-o-y FFTX + VDSL accesses
- o Fast adoption of Pay TV (+5% y-o-y)
- Increasing bundling with FFTX/4G, allowing high-end pricing power
- Increasing customer lifetime value
- o Strong Q of customer retention (churn -0.2 p.p. q-o-q)
- o Innovative value propositions
- o Best customer experience
Resilient growth of service revenues
Q2 Service Revenues (y-o-y organic)
Service Revenues (y-o-y organic)
Quality of revenues
- Service revenues growth offset handset sales
- Service revenues expansion higher than total revenues in all segments
- o Consistent trends in Q2 in Brazil & Spain vs. Q1
- Lower handset sales impacting Q2; worsening trends in all business
Q2 growth levered on strategic business
- BB Connectivity & SoC growing robustly and increasing weight to 47% o/total (+6 p.p. y-o-y)
- Declining Voice & Access (43% o/total; -5 p.p. y-o-y)
- Continued demand for mobile data (Non-SMS revs. +16.0% y-o-y)
Revenue (H1 16)
7
Sustaining OIBDA growth, strong diversification
H1 OIBDA (y-o-y organic)
OIBDA 2016 (y-o-y organic)
High operating leverage
Ongoing synergies & efficiencies improvements
- OIBDA growth for 8 th Q in a row
- Outstanding OpEx in Q2 (-0.8% y-o-y organic); outpacing revenue decline
- o Merger synergies on track (BZ, DE)
- o Redundancy programs driving personnel savings (Spain, BZ, …)
- o Global simplification initiatives across regions
- Broad-based y-o-y margin improvement in Q2, except in Hispam
- Ongoing organic OpCF growth in Q2 (H1: +3.3% y-o-y)
- o Back to growth in Spain (Q2: +1.0% y-o-y)
- o Brazil maintains its robust increase (H1: +33.6% y-o-y)
OIBDA (H1 16) OpCF ex-spectrum (H1 16)
Clear data monetisation results
ARPU uplift Traffic (y-o-y) Usage uplift Q2 LTE dynamics
LTE data upselling; ARPU growth
- LTE customers 50.1m (x2 y-o-y)
- o Q2 avg. usage/per smartphone +34% y-o-y (955 MB/month)
- Prepaid data ARPU uplift in Latam (Q2:+18% y-o-y)
- o T. Hispam opportunity; smartphone penetration 30%
- Contract data monetisation via traffic dynamisation and upselling
Fixed data opportunity ahead
- Booming FBB traffic (Q2: +50% y-o-y)
- Fiber quality and speed fostering usage
9
Digital Services: enhancing customer experience
Revenues(y-o-y organic)
Solid growth (y-o-y organic)
Q2 16 H1 16
Weight o/ total revs. Q2 16
Building on solid platforms
- Video: 8.4m accesses (+5% y-o-y)
- o Introduction of new functionalities and success of own productions
- Cloud:
- o Chile & Brazil: new "Open Telefónica Cloud" services
- Security:
- o Two new Security Operations Centres in Mexico & Spain
- o New strategic alliances to integrate with own security solutions
- M2M:
- o Consolidating Smart m2m platform as strategic asset to win key industry references
- Financial Services:
- o O2 Mobile Banking, Germany's first mobile-only bank, launched commercially
- Telefónica Open Future_:
- o Integrating startups' services internally and into customer offering
TGR: Technology excellence
- All-IP upgrade: More capability & efficiency
- o Native VoWiFi in Germany based on IMS (IP Multimedia Subsystem)
- o New metro network in Spain; OTN (Optical Transport Network)
- Global Centers: Standardisation & simplification
- o Devices: HGU (Home Gateway Unit) already in Spain & Brazil
- Innovation:
- o SON (Self Optimizing Networks) to improve 70m customers' experience
- o Telefónica awarded best NFV/SDN solution
- o Agreements with main vendors to evolve 5G architecture
E2E Digitalisation
Mr. Angel Vilá CSFO
Spain: Commercial momentum gaining pace
Quarterly net adds ('000)
Unique platform
• High customer stickiness
- o Fusion churn: 1.1% in Q2 (-0.2 p.p. q-o-q)
- Best-in-class UBB network in Europe
- o FTTH coverage: 15.7m premises passed (H1: +1.4m)
- o LTE coverage: 86% pop (+3 p.p. q-o-q)
- Continuous quality upgrade of quad-play offer
- o Innovative TV (VoD off-line, shift TV,…), 300 Mb symmetry, HGU,..
Jun-15 Jun-16 "Fusión" high value
Q2 15 Q1 16 Q2 16
Consistent upselling
- "Fusión" remains unabated (subs: +10% y-o-y)
- o Penetration upside
- New step on the "more for more" strategy launched in July
- o Smart bundling (Premium TV & mobile add-ons)
Spain: Further progress in the new growth cycle
Revenues (y-o-y organic)
Total Handset sales Service Rev. Total Revenues
Profitability
(y-o-y organic ex-real estate in Q2 15)
Q1 16€3,126mQ2 16 Margin
Total OIBDA
Sustainable service revenues growth
- Accelerating service revenues increase despite negative calendar effect from "Fusión" tariffs update
- All revenue segments delivering y-o-y growth in Q2
- o Convergence and IT drive Business improvement
Improved OIBDA & OpCF; efficiency gains
- Savings from Redundancy Program since Q2
- o Q2 OpEx: -1.9% y-o-y (Q1: -1.3%)
- Commercial process simplification (Q2 commercial cost: -18% y-o-y)
- Sustainable margin expansion
- OpCF increasing in Q2 y-o-y; despite Q2 CapEx +1.2% y-o-y
Germany: Outstanding OpCF; synergies on track
- Increasing competition in non-premium (aggressive pricing)
- Revenues pressure in Q2
- o Lower handset sales y-o-y (Q2: -25.5% y-o-y; Q1: -5.5%)
- o MSR showed wholesale mix; legacy base headwinds and regulation
- Further progress on LTE: Coverage at 77% (+7 p.p. y-o-y)
- o Ramp-up of non-SMS data revs in Q2 to 13.6% y-o-y
- o Avg. data usage of contract LTE O2 consumer +16% q-o-q to 1.4G
Financial (y-o-y ex non-recurrent)
OIBDA margin expansion to remain
- Incremental savings from H2: Q2 synergies (€40m); H1 (€95m)
- OpEx transformation peaking in H1 (brand, retention)
- Outlook confirmed but CapEx guidance reduced to 'mid to high singledigit % growth'
- Proposal for annual dividend growth over next 3 years (2016: €0.25/sh.)
UK: Strong trading; leading loyalty
Continued customer growth in a challenging market Continued customer growth
- Strongest quarterly net additions in 6 quarters
- Contract customers: 61% of the total; +5 p.p. y-o-y
- Fast LTE deployment
- o 91% outdoor coverage (+18 p.p. y-o-y)
- o Penetration at 43% of base (+17 p.p. y-o-y)
- o Customers up 64% y-o-y to 9.5 m
Mobile Service Revenues (y-o-y ex "O2 Refresh")
OIBDA margin expansion OIBDA margin expansion in Q2 (26.6%; +0.1 p.p. y-o-y)
- Q2 MSR broadly flat (ex-O2 Refresh) y-o-y
- Top line pressure in Q2 (ex "O2 Refresh")
- o Handset sales market wide slowdown (-11.6% y-o-y)
- o Roaming + MTRs (-2.0 p.p. in Q2 y-o-y)
- OpEx decline y-o-y (phasing of marketing spend and underlying savings)
- Increased investments in LTE (H1 CapEx: +6.3% y-o-y)
Brazil: Best positioned in the market
- Fixed:
- o Increasing speed fostering ARPU expansion
- o 16.1m homes passed with fiber/4.0m connected
- o Shortening the loop in the legacy copper network in SP
- o Leader in UBB with 54% market share
- o Successful cross-selling between former GVT and Vivo customers: All stores already selling fixed products
Brazil: Growing market share with margin expansion
HispAm: Reinforcing leadership in high-value
Contract accesses (y-o-y)
FBB & Pay TV accesses (y-o-y)
FBB Pay TV
Quality investments paying-off
• T. HispAm:
- o Strong performance in contract
- o Net adds x2.5 vs. Q2 15
- o Very intense competition, mainly Peru and Chile, hitting prepaid performance
- o Rapid take-up of new services y-o-y
- o Smartphone & LTE penetration: +6 p.p. y-o-y
- o Accelerating fixed transformation (bundling 41%; +5 p.p. y-o-y)
- o Delivering higher speeds (56% > 4 Mbps; +5 p.p. y-o-y)
- o Positive Q2 Pay TV net adds in main markets
HispAm: Healthy growth in top line
Service Revenue (organic y-o-y)
Q1 16 Q2 16
Peers' outperformance in broad markets
- Robust Q2 fixed revenues: +16.1% y-o-y
- Sequential deterioration of OIBDA y-o-y (Q2: -3.4%; Q1: +0.8%) affected by MEX and VZ
- o FX, competition (higher interconnection costs) and inflation: drivers of margin erosion (-2.0 p.p. y-o-y)
- MÉXICO:
- o Intense competition in H1, but easing in recent weeks. Gaining market share
- PERÚ:
- o OIBDA and margin improving in Q2 on efficiencies and strong performance in fixed business
- ARGENTINA:
- o Steady revenue increase in Q2 & improving OIBDA trends
- CHILE:
- o Very solid fixed revenue performance; OIBDA growth impacted by higher commercial costs and FX
- COLOMBIA:
- o Improved revenue growth; OIBDA and margin declining (inflation & commercial investments)
Leverage impacted by Q2 dividend payment
Strong liquidity to face upcoming maturities
Sources of long-term financing (Jun-16)
Liquidity position (Jun-16)
€ in billions
Net debt maturities (Jun-16)
€ in billions; not considering hybrid NC dates
Summary: Structural transformation
Executing and building for the future
- Networks upgrades & product differentiation driving commercial activity: growing value & improving sustainability
- Strengthening market positioning across markets
- Ongoing efficiencies & synergies driving margin expansion
- Profitable organic growth continues, improvement expected in H2
- FX headwinds expected to ease in H2
- Improving FCF generation, H2 to benefit from seasonality
2016 guidance; dividend & mid-term leverage confirmed
For further information: Investor Relations Tel. +34 94 482 87 00 [email protected] www.telefonica.com/investors