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TAG Immobilien AG — Call Transcript 2016
May 10, 2016
425_ip_2016-05-10_33a046ec-ba3d-471a-8edb-8bbd2bef6447.pdf
Call Transcript
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Conference call presentation Q1 2016
Content
| I. | TAG highlights Q1 2016 3 |
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| II. | TAG financials Q1 2016 6 |
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| III. | TAG portfolio Q1 2016 12 |
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| IV. | TAG East German real estate market 17 |
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| V. | TAG outlook 21 |
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| VI. | Appendix | 23 | |||||||
| Acquisitions and disposals |
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| Valuation |
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| Capex and maintenance |
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| Return on capex |
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| Capital markets heads-up |
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| Bonds and convertibles |
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| Management Board |
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| TAG Immobilien AG May 2016 |
TAG highlights Q1 2016
| Q1 2016 | Q4 2015 | Q1 2015 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operational performance |
Vacancy (residential units) |
7.5% | 7.5%/7.7%* | 8.9% |
| L-f-L rental growth Y-o-Y |
1.9% | 1.6% | 1.0% | |
| L-f-L rental growth Y-o-Y incl. vacancy reduction |
3.8% | 3.3% | 2.5% | |
| Net in-place rents (EUR/sqm) |
5.02 | 5.04/ 5.00* | 4.98 | |
| FFO I (EUR/m) |
21.6 | 20.7 | 18.1 | |
| FFO I (EUR/share) |
0.17 | 0.16 | 0.15 |
| 31 Mar-2016 |
31 Dec-2015 |
31 Mar-2015 |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPRA NAV (EUR/share) |
10.76 | 10.64 | 10.24 | |
| NAV and LTV |
LTV |
59.0% | 60.7% | 62.4% |
| LTV (incl. convertibles) |
61.0% | 62.7% | 65.2% |
| S | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L-f-L rental growth Y-o-Y |
1.9% | 1.6% | 1.0% | T H G |
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| Operational | L-f-L rental growth |
Y-o-Y incl. vacancy reduction | 3.8% | 3.3% | 2.5% | LI H G |
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| performance | Net in-place rents (EUR/sqm) |
5.02 | 5.04/ 5.00* | 4.98 | HI | |||||
| FFO I (EUR/m) |
21.6 | 20.7 | 18.1 | |||||||
| FFO I (EUR/share) |
0.17 | 0.16 | 0.15 | |||||||
| * : incl. acquisitions and disposals 2015 | ||||||||||
| 31 Mar-2016 |
31 Dec-2015 |
31 Mar-2015 |
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| EPRA NAV (EUR/share) |
10.76 | 10.64 | 10.24 | |||||||
| NAV and LTV |
LTV |
59.0% | 60.7% | 62.4% | ||||||
| LTV (incl. convertibles) |
61.0% | 62.7% | 65.2% | |||||||
| Acquisitions |
Closing of acquisition signed in Dec-2015 EUR 39.5m purchase price (equals 11.8x actual net cold rent of EUR 3.36m p.a.). |
in Saxony (972 residential units) at 31 Jan-2016. | ||||||||
| Acquisitions | Vacancy at 3.8%. | |||||||||
| and | ||||||||||
| disposals | Disposals |
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| 118 residential units signed in Q1 2016. Total selling price of EUR 6.5m. Book profit of EUR 0.7m in Q1 2016. Net cash proceeds of approx. EUR 5.5m. |
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| TAG Immobilien AG May 2016 |
TAG highlights Q1 2016
| Private placement of 5m TAG treasury shares in March 2016 |
|
|---|---|
| Share | ABB transaction in March 2016 (after buyback in Sep/Oct 2014 at EUR 9.30 per share) |
| placement | Placement price: EUR 11.65 (6.1% premium to three months VWAP/ 9.5% premium to EPRA NAV per share) |
| Gross proceeds of EUR 58.3m for new acquisitions as well as optimising the capital structure |
|
| Increase in stake of Colonia Real Estate AG in March 2016 / planned delisting of this company |
|
| Group | Share increase to 93.9% through share swap TAG shares / Colonia shares (2.03m TAG treasury shares in exchange for 2.95m Colonia shares) |
| structure | Domination and profit and loss transfer agreement planned (agenda point at Colonia's AGM on 29 Aug-2016); ensures tax efficient structure in FY 2017ff. for TAG Group |
| Delisting of Colonia scheduled for end of FY 2016 |
|
| Change in management board compensation |
|
| New: 50% of management's bonus paid in shares (treasury shares), 50% in cash (currently 100% cash) |
|
| Management compensation |
Shares restricted for 3 years; cash component paid in 2 annual instalments (currently cash bonus paid in 3 annual instalments) |
| in shares | Unchanged: cap of EUR 250,000 per board member; bonus based in full on per share data (i.e. annual increase in share price, FFO/s, NAV/s, EBT/s without valuation result) |
| Subject to approval of TAG's AGM on 17 Jun-2016, requires renewed authorization for treasury shares |
|
| TAG Immobilien AG May 2016 |
TAG income statement (IFRS)
| (in EUR millions) | Q1 2016 | Q4 2015 | FY 2015 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rental revenues | 67.7 | 65.9 | 259.3 | |
| Expenses from property management | -14.6 | -12.4 | -54.0 | |
| Net rental income | 53.1 | 53.5 | 205.3 | |
| Margin | 78.5% | 81.2% | 79.2% | |
| Net revenues from sales |
0.7 | 8.0 | 20.1 | |
| Other operating income | 1.4 | 3.3 | 7.6 | |
| Net fair value gains and losses | 0.8 | 4.8 | 98.9 | |
| Gross profit | 56.0 | 69.6 | 331.9 | |
| Personnel expenses | -9.3 | -9.2 | -35.2 | |
| Depreciation | -0.7 | -0.7 | -3.1 | |
| Other operating expenses | -4.4 | -6.8 | -22.5 | |
| EBIT | 41.6 | 52.9 | 271.1 | |
| Net financial result | -21.9 | -21.6 | -96.0 | |
| EBT | 19.7 | 31.3 | 175.1 | |
| Income tax | -1.7 | 0.8 | -27.8 | |
| Net income | 18.0 | 32.1 | 147.3 |
| | Increased rental revenues due to closing of acquisitions end of Dec-2015/Jan-2016 and through rental growth and vacancy reduction |
|---|---|
| | Higher maintenance costs in Q1 2016 compared to Q4 2015 |
| | Net revenues from sales in Q1 2016 due to single unit sales; Q4 2015 mainly relating to sale of commercial object in Stuttgart |
| | Valuation gains primarily result of first-time valuation of newly acquired portfolios |
- Lower other operating expenses in Q1 2016; Q4 2015 affected by one-off transaction costs from property sales and aquisitions
- Lower net financial result in Q1 2016 due to non-cash impairment of derivatives (EUR 0.9m)
- Income taxes relate to deferred taxes; current cash tax income for Q1 2016 of EUR 0.1m
TAG FFO calculation
| (in EUR millions) | Q1 2016 | Q4 2015 | FY 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net income | 18.0 | 32.1 | 147.3 |
| + Taxes | 1.7 | -0.8 | 27.8 |
| + Net financial result | 21.9 | 21.6 | 96.0 |
| EBIT | 41.6 | 52.9 | 271.1 |
| - Net financial result (cash, after one off's) |
-20.1 | -20.2 | -84.0 |
| - Cash taxes |
0.1 | -0.3 | -0.4 |
| + Adjustments | |||
| Valuation result | -0.8 | -4.8 | -98.9 |
| Depreciation | |||
| 0.7 | 0.7 | 3.1 | |
| Impairment losses on receivables | |||
| (excl. rent receivables) and on real | |||
| estate inventory | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
| One off's personnel-costs and |
0.8 | 0.3 | 5.3 |
| project costs Net revenue from sales |
-0.7 | -8.0 | -20.1 |
| = FFO I | 21.6 | 20.7 | 76.3 |
| CAPEX | -9.6 | -9.6 | -40.1 |
| = AFFO | 12.0 | 11.1 | 36.2 |
| Net revenue from sales | 0.7 | 8.0 | 20.1 |
| = FFO II (FFO I + net revenue from sales) | 22.3 | 28.7 | 96.4 |
| Weighted average number of shares | |||
| outstanding (in '000) | 126,834 | 125,469 | 123,118 |
| FFO I per share (EUR) | 0.17 | 0.16 | 0.62 |
| AFFO per share (EUR) | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.29 |
| Weighted average number of shares, | |||
| fully diluted (in '000) | 136,351 | 134,986 | 134,531 |
| FFO I per share (EUR), fully diluted | 0.17 | 0.16 | 0.60 |
| AFFO per share (EUR), fully diluted | 0.10 | 0.09 | 0.29 |
TAG balance sheet (IFRS)
| (in EUR millions) | 31 Mar-2016 | 31 Dec-2015 |
|
|---|---|---|---|
| Non-current assets |
3,647.6 | 3,605.4 | |
| Investment property | 3,573.8 | 3,531.1 | |
| Deferred tax assets | 43.3 | 43.6 | |
| Other non-current assets | 30.5 | 30.7 | |
| Current assets | 157.9 | 165.1 | |
| Real estate inventory | 11.9 | 12.8 | Cash inflows from refinancing of latest acquisitions |
| Cash and cash equivalents | 110.4 | 103.8 | (bank loans of approx. EUR 85m) not included |
| Other current assets | 35.6 | 48.5 | |
| Non-current assets held-for-sale |
6.8 | 23.7 | |
| TOTAL ASSETS | 3,812,3 | 3,794,2 | |
| Equity (including minority interest) |
1,197.6 | 1,120.6 | Increase in stake of Colonia to 93.9% (87.2% at |
| Minority interest | 21.3 | 35.4 | 31 Dec-2015) |
| Non-current liabilities | 2,343.0 | 2,379.0 | |
| Financial debt | 2,099.4 | 2,136.7 | |
| Deferred tax liabilities | 233.3 | 231.6 | |
| Other non-current liabilities | 10.3 | 10.7 | |
| Current liabilities | 271.7 | 295.1 | |
| Financial debt | 207.6 | 212.9 | |
| Other current liabilities | 64.1 | 82.2 | |
| TOTAL EQUITY AND LIABILITIES | 3,812.3 | 3,794.2 | |
| LTV (excl. convertible bonds) | 59.0% | 60.7 % | Reduction by 170bps in Q1 2016 due to placement |
| LTV | 61.0% | 62.7 % | of treasury shares and operational improvements |
TAG NAV calculation
| (in EUR millions) | 31 Mar-2016 | 31 Dec-2015 |
|---|---|---|
| Equity (without minorities) | 1,176.3 | 1,085.1 |
| + Deferred taxes on investment properties and financial derivatives |
244.9 | 245.1 |
| + Fair value of financial derivatives | 4.6 | 5.4 |
| = EPRA NAV | 1,425.8 | 1,335.6 |
| - Standardized transaction costs |
-210.3 | -207.6 |
| = EPRA NAV (incl. standardized transaction costs) |
1,215.5 | 1,128.0 |
| Number of shares (outstanding) (in '000) | 132,501 | 125,469 |
| EPRA NAV per share (EUR) | 10.76 | 10.64 |
| EPRA NAV per share (EUR) (incl. standardized transaction costs) |
9.17 | 8.99 |
| Number of shares, fully diluted (in '000) | 142,018 | 134,986 |
| EPRA NAV per share (EUR) fully diluted |
10.56 | 10.45 |
| EPRA NAV per share (EUR) fully diluted (incl. standardized transaction costs) |
9.08 | 8.91 |
NAV per share development 31 Mar-2016 compared to 31 Dec-2015:
- Approx. EUR 0.08 per share increase due to net income in Q1 2016
- Approx. EUR 0.04 per share increase due to placement of 5m treasury shares
- TAG Immobilien AG | May 2016NAV Total change in NAV of EUR of 0.12 per share in Q1 2016
TAG debt financing structure
Debt maturity profile as of 31 Mar-2016 in EUR millions
Interest rates and maturities (1)
Upcoming refinancing in the short- to medium-term
- TAG is currently financing new mortgage bank loans at all-in interest cost at approx. 1.5% p.a. for a 10 year term
- Until 31 Dec-2018, a total of EUR 710m of bank loans will mature or can be refinanced at no breakage fees at expiration, average duration of bank loans at 10.2 years
Cost of debt and LTV development
- Total cost of debt in Mar-2016 at 3.45% (3.45% in Dec-2015 and 3.70% in Mar-2015)
- LTV (incl. convertible bonds) reduced to 61.0% (62.7% in Dec-2015 and 65.2% in Mar-2014); LTV target (incl. convertible bonds) at 60%
| (in EUR millions) | Q1 2016 | Q4 2015 | FY 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|
| + Interest income | 0.8 | 0.6 | 3.6 |
| - Interest expenses |
-22.8 | -21.8 | -99.4 |
| + net profit from investments/ associates |
0.1 | -0.4 | -0.2 |
| = Net financial result |
-21.9 | -21.6 | -96.0 |
| thereof non-cash financial result related to convertible bonds |
-0.3 | -0.2 | -1.6 |
| thereof non-cash financial result related to corporate bonds |
-0.2 | -0.2 | -0.7 |
| thereof non-cash related to derivatives |
-0.7 | 0.2 | -2.5 |
| thereof other non-cash financial result and one-offs(2) |
-0.6 | -1.2 | -7.2 |
| = Net financial result (cash, after one-offs) |
-20.1 | -20.2 | -84.0 |
TAG Immobilien AG | May 2016 (1) Numbers in brackets show refinancing volumes and interest rates within the next three years
(2) Includes other non cash financial income, other expenses and one-offs from refinancing
TAG portfolio in total as of 31 Mar-2016
- Geographic regions in accordance with decentralized management clusters and strategic relevance
- Change in 2016: split of region "Dresden" into two regions ("Dresden" and "Chemnitz") in accordance with new internal management and reporting structure
| Portfolio as of | 31 Mar-2016 | 31 Dec-2015 |
|---|---|---|
| Units | 78,617 | 78,015 |
| Rentable area in sqm | 4,806,365 | 4,765,897 |
| Real estate volume in TEUR |
3,602,663 | 3,577,899 |
| Actual net cold rent in EUR/ sqm/month (total) |
5.13 | 5.19 |
| Actual net cold rent in EUR/ sqm/month (residential units) |
5.02 | 5.04 |
| Annualized actual net cold rent in TEUR (total) |
272,688 | 269,722 |
| Vacancy in % (total) | 7.9 | 8.2 |
| Vacancy in % (residential units) |
7.5 | 7.5 |
TAG portfolio in total – Q1 2016 by region
| Region | Units # |
Rentable area sqm |
IFRS BV TEUR |
In place yield % |
Vacancy March 2016 % |
Vacancy Dec. 2015 % |
Actual net cold rent EUR/ sqm |
Re letting rent EUR/ sqm |
L-f-l rental growth y-o-y % |
L-f-l rental growth y-o-y incl. vacancy reduction % |
Mainte nance EUR/ sqm |
Capex EUR/ sqm |
Comments |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Berlin | 9,923 | 573,444 | 491,161 | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 5.15 | 5.72 | 2.7% | 3.1% | 1.30 | 3.24 | Increase in vacancy due to acquisitions |
| Chemnitz | 6,567 | 376,119 | 219,616 | 8.2% | 14.3% | 15.8% | 4.66 | 4.83 | 2.1% | 5.2% | 1.14 | 3.23 | Split of "Dresden" region into "Chemnitz" and "Dresden" in 2016 |
| Dresden | 6,210 | 403,151 | 348,607 | 7.1% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 5.36 | 5.55 | 2.6% | 3.9% | 1.22 | 1.07 | Increase in vacancy due to acquisitions |
| Erfurt | 8,326 | 469,547 | 385,165 | 7.0% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.99 | 5.46 | 2.3% | 5.1% | 0.92 | 3.09 | Higher investments to reduce vacancy |
| Gera | 9,636 | 562,019 | 373,422 | 7.5% | 10.9% | 11.1% | 4.69 | 4.89 | 1.5% | 2.8% | 1.33 | 1.52 | |
| Hamburg | 7,282 | 444,900 | 369,185 | 7.2% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.24 | 5.67 | 0.7% | 2.6% | 1.98 | 2.41 | |
| Leipzig | 8,608 | 510,931 | 363,376 | 7.8% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 4.89 | 4.96 | 0.9% | 2.2% | 1.30 | 0.89 | |
| Rhine-Ruhr | 4,938 | 325,239 | 281,802 | 6.8% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 5.14 | 5.72 | 0.6% | 0.4% | 2.49 | 1.29 | Increase in vacancy due to acquisitions |
| Rostock | 5,474 | 325,253 | 260,950 | 7.4% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.22 | 5.51 | 2.9% | 4.6% | 1.13 | 2.36 | Higher investments to reduce vacancy |
| Salzgitter | 9,175 | 563,074 | 376,329 | 7.9% | 11.5% | 12.1% | 4.97 | 5.26 | 2.6% | 6.8% | 1.67 | 1.92 | Further reduction of vacancy to 10.8% in Apr-2016 |
| Total residential units |
76,139 | 4,553,676 | 3,469,612 | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 5.02 | 5.32 | 1.9% | 3.8% | 1.43 | 2.11 | Further reduction of vacancy to 7.3% in Apr-2016 from 7.7% (including acquisitions 2015) in Jan-2016 |
| Acquisitions 2016 |
952 | 55,445 | 42,014 | 7.6% | 5.5% | 10.6% | 5.05 | 0.81 | --- | ||||
| Commercial units within resi. portfolio |
1,288 | 165,187 | 17.2% | 17.7% | 7.32 | --- | --- | ||||||
| Total residential portfolio |
78,379 | 4,774,308 | 3,511,625 | 7.7% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 5.09 | 1.37 | 2.01 | ||||
| Other | 238 | 32,057 | 91,038 | 4.1% | 19.3% | 12.3% | 11.95 | 2.06 | 1.04 | Comprises commercial objects and serviced apartments |
|||
| Grand total | 78,617 | 4,806,365 | 3,602,663 | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 5.13 | 1.38 | 2.00 | Vacancy total portfolio in Apr-2016 at 7.6% (8.2% in Jan-2016) TAG Immobilien AG May 2016 |
TAG vacancy reduction development
- Residential units 2013 - 2016 Realisation of development potential from newly acquired portfolios
- Proof of successful asset and property management over the last three years
- Increases in vacancy due to new acquisitions with higher vacancy and sales with lower vacancy (e.g. Berlin)
Salzgitter region 2013 - 2016
- Continued strong vacancy reduction in the Salzgitter region with currently c.300bps per annum
- Adjust residential units to the market requirements (for students, singles, families, elderly people)
- Targeted modernisation programs i.e. for elderly people, bathroom conversions etc.
- Reduction of service charges; better quality of service for tenants
TAG rental growth development
- TAG Immobilien AG | May 2016PORTFOLIO / PLATFORM Rental growth and vacancy reduction are the two main drivers to further improve the rental income profile of TAG
- TAG invests in regions with rather stable rent profile and is able to acquire properties with above average vacancy level
- By way of targeted modernizations and smart property managment, TAG is able to reduce these vacancy levels over time
- Vacancy reduction and rental growth have to be considered as two sides of the same medal
TAG East German real estate market Demographics
Immigration and emigration in Eastern Germany 2008–20134)
- Since the fall of the Berlin Wall, about 1.8 million people from Eastern Germany have moved to the West – mostly young people between 18 and 30 years old2)
- This development has come to an end, that is, the population figures are stabilizing. In 2013, for the first time, more people immigrated to the five eastern German states than emigrated from them3)
In the period from 2008 to 2013, the total net migration to the former East Germany improved steadily, and was positive for the first time in 2012. This turnaround is attributable especially to the growing number of people migrating to these states
Sources:
1) & 3) Federal Institute for Population Research "Migration between East and West Germany", 1991 to 2013 2) & 4) Federal Statistical Office, Study: "Migration Patterns in the East"
TAG East German real estate market Economic data
Change in employment rates 1998-20131)
Growth in GDP per person employed 2000-20142)
- In the regions that are part of the TAG portfolio, employment has increased significantly
- By the same token, there has been a decline in the unemployment rate
-
Average employment increased by approximately 9.0% from 1998 to 2013
-
The highest growth in GDP per person employed in the period from 2000 to 2014 was recorded in Saxony: 19.6%
- This was followed by Thüringen with a 19.0% increase in GDP per person employed
- The national average growth in GDP per person employed was only 8.3%
Sources:
1) inkar.de, 1998 - 2013, Labour force per 100 inhabitants of working age, change in %, by city 2) statistik-portal.de, gross domestic product (price-adjusted, chained) per employed person, 2000 - 2014, by federal state
TAG East German real estate market Rent over time
Source: 1) HSBC Global Research, March 2016
- In the period from 2008 to 2015, the eastern German cities shown that are also part of the TAG portfolio demonstrated a positive change in rents over time, without exception
- The change in rents was highest in Berlin at 33.1%, followed by Erfurt (27.3%) and Dresden (20.4%)
TAG outlook
| FFO |
EUR 84m – EUR 85m (EUR 76.3 in FY 2015) |
|
|---|---|---|
| Guidance FY 2016 (unchanged) |
FFO/share |
EUR 0.67 (EUR 0.62 in FY 2015) based on current weighted average NOSH |
| Dividend |
EUR 0.57 per share (EUR 0.55 for FY 2015) |
FFO per share in EUR
Dividend per share in EUR
TAG acquisitions 2015
| Signing | Saxony/Saxony Anhalt May-2015 |
Brandenburg Jun-2015 |
Rügen Jul-2015 |
Brandenburg Nov-2015 |
NRW/ Lower Saxony Nov-2015 |
Saxony Dec-2015 |
Saxony-Anhalt Dec-2015 |
Total FY2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Units | 860 | 134 | 180 | 1,776 | 1,304 | 972 | 96 | 5,322 |
| Rentable area in sqm |
49,900 | 11,400 | 11,500 | 97,200 | 84,600 | 57,059 | 8,365 | 320,024 |
| Actual net cold rent EUR/sqm/month |
4.64 | 5.49 | 5.37 | 4.30 | 4.42 | 5.05 | 5.08 | 4.68 |
| Vacancy | 14.8% | 1.3% | 6.2% | 18.6% | 11.3% | 3.8% | 6.3% | 12.1% |
| Purchase price EURm |
18.6 | 8.8 | 8.2 | 41.5 | 36.8 | 39.5 | 5.3 | 158.7 |
| Actual net cold rent EURm p.a. |
2.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 0.5 | 15.8 |
| Location | Leipzig, Dresden, Magdeburg, etc. |
Brandenburg | Rügen | Brandenburg | Bochum, Eschweiler, Goslar, etc. |
Chemnitz, Riesa, etc. |
Bitterfeld | |
| Closing | Aug-2015 | Aug-2015 | Aug-2015 | Dec-2015 | Dec-2015 | Jan-2016 | Dec-2015 | |
| Multiples | 7.9x | 11.1x | 11.9x | 10.1x | 9.2x | 11.8x | 10.6x | 10.0x |
approx. 5,300 units acquired in 2015; EUR 158.7m purchase price and EUR 15.8m rent p.a. leads to average buying multiple of 10.0x or 10.0% gross yield (based on actual net cold rent)
24
TAG disposals 2015
| Signing | Berlin (Marzahn/ Hellersdorf) Apr-2015 |
Stuttgart (Commercial) Oct-2015 |
Hamburg (Wedel) Dec-2015 |
Privatisation and ongoing disposals 2015 |
Total FY 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Units | 972 | 182 | 100 | 679 | 1,933 |
| Actual net cold rent EUR/sqm/month |
5.26 | 13.64 | 6.60 | --- | |
| Actual net cold rent p.a. EURm |
3.5 | 4.1 | 0.4 | 3.4 | 11.4 |
| Vacancy | 1.7% | 0.6% | 5.0% | --- | |
| Selling price EURm |
59.8 | 87.5 | 9.0 | 64.6 | 220.9 |
| Net cash proceeds EURm |
34.6 | 40.3 | 6.3 | 35.3 | 116.5 |
| Book profit (IFRS) EURm after revaluation |
10.7 | 7.3 | 1.8 | 3.9 | 23.7 |
| Location | Berlin (Marzahn, Hellersdorf) |
Stuttgart | Wedel | Various locations (e.g. Berlin, Dresden, Leipzig, Erfurt, Frankfurt) |
|
| Closing | Jun-2015 | Dec-2015 | Dec-2015 | 2015 | |
| Multiples | 17.0x | 21.3x | 22.0x | 19.0x | 19.4x |
Stuttgart
Wedel
approx. 1,900 units sold in 2015; EUR 220.9m selling price and EUR 11.4m rent p.a. leads to average selling multiple of 19.4x or 5.2% gross yield (based on actual net cold rent)
APPENDIX
TAG portfolio valuation FY 2015
| Region (in EUR millions) |
2015 Fair Value (IFRS) |
2015 Fair Value (EUR/sqm) |
2015 Implied multiple |
Revaluation gain / loss |
Capex | Net acquisitions and other movements |
2014 Fair Value (IFRS) |
2014 Fair Value (EUR/sqm) |
2014 Implied multiple |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Berlin | 441.1 | 884.5 | 14.95 | 19.9 | 3.90 | -47.6 | 464.9 | 819.1 | 14.23 |
| Chemnitz | 214.5 | 581.2 | 12.41 | -5.9 | 5.19 | 57.9 | 157.3 | 618.7 | 13.26 |
| Dresden | 300.9 | 978.7 | 14.91 | 3.2 | 1.12 | 9.6 | 287.0 | 973.4 | 15.23 |
| Erfurt | 360.2 | 838.3 | 14.61 | 8.7 | 6.25 | 22.8 | 322.4 | 831.5 | 15.39 |
| Gera | 372.0 | 662.1 | 13.27 | -3.0 | 5.45 | 72.5 | 297.1 | 685.4 | 14.12 |
| Hamburg | 308.5 | 828.9 | 14.01 | 7.3 | 1.97 | -16.4 | 315.5 | 818.8 | 14.09 |
| Leipzig | 331.1 | 712.5 | 12.87 | 1.9 | 2.12 | 27.8 | 299.4 | 710.5 | 13.12 |
| Rhine-Ruhr | 241.8 | 999.0 | 15.49 | 7.5 | 1.13 | 4.3 | 228.9 | 959.8 | 15.09 |
| Rostock | 250.5 | 797.8 | 13.52 | 5.3 | 4.47 | 17.5 | 223.2 | 769.9 | 13.57 |
| Salzgitter | 375.2 | 666.4 | 12.91 | 7.0 | 7.39 | -0.1 | 360.9 | 641.2 | 13.07 |
| Total residential units |
3,195.8 | 775.2 | 13.86 | 51.9 | 38.99 | 148.4 | 2,956.5 | 770.8 | 14.09 |
| Acquisitions | 279.8 | 639.9 | 12.26 | 37.9 | 0.60 | 12.2 | 229.1 | 609.9 | 12.12 |
| Total residential portfolio |
3,475.6 | 735.0 | 13.08 | 89.8 | 39.59 | 160.6 | 3,185.6 | 728.2 | 13.02 |
| Other | 79.2 | 2,130.6 | 19.74 | 9.1 | 0.50 | -76.4 | 146.0 | 2,345.4 | 19.28 |
| Grand total* | 3,554.8 | 745.9 | 13.18 | 98.9 | 40.09 | 84.2 | 3,331.6 | 750.9 | 13.21 |
* Real estate inventory and real estate within property, plant and equipment not included in valuation
TAG capex and maintenance
| 2016 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| in EUR millions |
Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Total | Q1 | |
| Maintenance | Residential | 6.45 | 7.09 | 5.38 | 5.77 | 24.69 | 6.60 |
| Commercial | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.22 | 0.19 | 0.52 | 0.02 | |
| Capex | Residential | 6.80 | 9.88 | 13.56 | 9.35 | 39.59 | 9.60 |
| Commercial | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.18 | 0.28 | 0.50 | 0.03 | |
| Total | 13.39 | 16.98 | 19.34 | 15.59 | 65.30 | 16.25 |
TAG return on capex
Modernization is key element of TAG's strategy
- TAG spends approx. €40m p.a. on capex measures; these can be broken down into
- Modernization during re-letting (tenant turnover)
- Modernization of vacant flats (longer term vacancy)
- Large modernization measures (comprehensive building-related measures)
- Using modernization as a means to upgrade the rental profile and constitution of its portfolio is a valid part of TAG's strategy
- It is in TAG's very own interest to track the success of these measures, which TAG wants also disclose to its shareholders
- In most cases large modernization measures are financed via bank loans and equity, all other modernization measures are equity-financed
Methodology
Incremental revenues – financing costs 2
Return on equity invested =
Equity invested
| Modernization during re-letting |
Modernization of vacant flats |
Large modernization measures |
|
|---|---|---|---|
| Incremental revenues from modernization surcharge |
()* | | ()* |
| + Incremental revenues from new lettings |
| | |
| + Saved maintenance costs |
| | ()* |
| + Saved ancillary costs from vacancy reduction |
| | ()* |
| = Incremental revenues |
TAG return on capex - overview
TAG capital markets heads-up
| High/Low (Q1 2016) |
EUR 12.09/EUR 9.85 |
|---|---|
| Number of shares (issued) |
136.6m |
| Number of shares (outstanding) |
132.5m |
| Market capitalisation (31 Dec-2015) |
EUR 1,624m |
| Stock indices |
MDAX/EPRA |
| Free Float * |
97% |
| * Deutsche Börse definition including institutional investors, repurchased TAG own shares not included |
Share price development 2015-2016
| Institution | Analyst | Recommen dation |
Target price in EUR |
Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Berenberg | Kai Klose | Buy | 14.00 | 09-May-16 |
| Bankhaus Lampe |
Georg Kanders | Buy | 13.00 | 06-May-16 |
| Commerzbank | Thomas Rothaeusler | Hold | 11.80 | 04-May-16 |
| VictoriaPartners | Bernd Janssen |
N/A | 11.00-12.50 | 28-Apr-16 |
| Kempen&Co. | Bernd Stahli |
Sell | 11.20 | 11-Apr-16 |
| Morgan Stanley | Bianca Riemer | Underweight | 9.20 | 04-April-16 |
| Nord/LB | Michael Seufert | 11.00 | 17-Mar-16 | |
| Merrill Lynch Mike Bessell |
Underperform | 10.40 | 03-Mar-16 | |
| MM Warburg | Moritz Rieser |
Hold | 10.40 | 01-Mar-16 |
| Kepler Cheuvreux |
Thomas Neuhold |
13.00 | 26-Feb-16 | |
| HSBC Thomas Martin |
Buy | 13.30 | 25-Feb-16 | |
| Baader Bank | André Remke | Hold | 10.00 | 25-Feb-16 |
| Oddo Seydler | Manuel Martin |
Buy | 12.50 | 24-Feb-16 |
| Barclays | David Prescott | Underweight | 9.80 | 20-Jan-16 |
| S&P Capital IQ |
William Howlett | Buy | 13.00 | 06-Nov-15 |
| Citigroup Aaron Guy |
Neutral | 12.20 | 21-Jul-15 | |
| Median | 11.20 |
Shareholder structure as of 31 Mar 2016
TAG bonds and convertibles
- Two corporate bonds outstanding (issued in 2013 and 2014)
- One convertible remaining after conversions/clean up call in 2012 and 2015 and (partly) buy back of convertibles in 2013, convertible trades in the money
- Clean up call of 6.5% convertible bond 2010/2015 in Jul/Aug-2015 (outstanding principle amount less than 20% of total principle amount)
Corporate Bonds
| WKN A1TNFU | WKN A12T10 |
|---|---|
| Volume: EUR 310m | Volume: EUR 125 m |
| Division into shares: EUR 1,000.00 per share | Division into shares: EUR 1,000.00 per share |
| Nominal value per bond: EUR 1,000.00 | Nominal value per bond: EUR 1,000.00 |
| Maturity: 5 years until 08/07/2018 | Maturity: 6 years until 06/25/2020 |
| Interest rate (effective): 5.125% (200m)/4.3% (110m) | Interest rate: 3.75% |
| Issue price: at par (200m)/to 103% (110m) | Issue price: at par |
Convertible Bond
June 2012-2019
| Issued volume: FUR 85.3m | |
|---|---|
| Outstanding volume: EUR 74.5m | |
| Number of shares: 853 | |
| Nominal value per bond: EUR 100,000.00 | |
| Maturity: 06/25/2019 | |
| Interest rate: 5.5% | |
| Conversion price: EUR 7.83 |
TAG share price EUR 11.89 as of 31 Mar-2016
APPENDIX
TAG management board
- Key responsibilities: Property and Asset Management, Acquisitions and Disposals, Shared Service Center
- Age 44
- Joined TAG as a member of the management board in July 2012
- Business degree, member of the board of DKB Immobilien AG from 2010 to 2012, more than 15 years of experience in residential real estate and property management
COO CFO CLO
- Key responsibilities: Controlling, Accounting, Financing, Taxes, Corporate Finance and Investor Relations
- Age 43
- Joined TAG as CFO in April 2014
- Business degree, CPA, CVA, over 15 years of experience as Auditor and Tax consultant with real estate clients
Claudia Hoyer Martin Thiel Dr. Harboe Vaagt
- Key responsibilities: Legal, Human Resources and Transactions
- Age 59
- With TAG for more than 15 years, has been a member of the management board since April 2011
- Law degree, over 25 years of experience in real estate legal affairs
APPENDIX