AI assistant
STOCKLAND — Management Reports 2013
May 12, 2013
65781_rns_2013-05-12_0c8285b7-a9b6-4cd6-818f-725b41ed3874.pdf
Management Reports
Open in viewerOpens in your device viewer
Investor update & str ic review ateg
==> picture [59 x 59] intentionally omitted <==
13 May 2013
==> picture [133 x 10] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
Stockland Shellharbour, NSW
----- End of picture text -----
Agenda
Strategy and Group Update - Mark Steinert, Managing Director
Operational and strategy update - CEOs
Summary - Mark Steinert, Managing Director
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
1
Stockland, who we are
Vision: To be a great property company that delivers value to all our stakeholders
Stockland is well positioned and has a diverse portfolio
Primary objective: To deliver EPS growth and total risk-adjusted shareholder returns above A-REIT sector
Strong financial position with an A- stable credit rating (S&P)
Strong commitment to sustainability that creates long term value for Stockland and the community
Listed in the Global 100 Most Sustainable Companies for the fourth consecutive year
Dow Jones Sustainability Index a top rated real estate company
Our purpose: We believe there is a better way to live
==> picture [76 x 49] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
Key
Retail
Office
Industrial
Residential Communities
Retirement Living
----- End of picture text -----
Share of real estate assets at 31 December 2012[1 ]
==> picture [160 x 107] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
Retirement
Living
10%
Residential 21% 47% Retail
Communities
7%
Industrial
15%
Office
----- End of picture text -----
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
- Total assets of AUD12.5b
2
Strategic review executive summary
We have undertaken a detailed review of our business and markets to define a strategy that:
Our strategic approach
Optimises securityholder returns within an acceptable level of risk through the cycle
Focus on core competencies in property and asset management and development to drive value creation
Delivers reliable profit and EPS growth over time
Focus on cost and efficiency while maintaining a desirable work environment
Ensures a culture of high transparency and accountability
Delivers innovative products that meet customer expectations
We have also tested our structure and confirmed that our diversified stapled trust and corporation structure adds most value for securityholders
Agile capital allocation within a disciplined risk / return framework
Actively divest assets that don’t meet our risk-adjusted hurdle rates of return
Maintain a strong balance sheet and A- credit rating
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
3
Reinvigorating the business for reliable growth and returns
Business position
Business in transition as we position ourselves for growth in FY14 and beyond
Senior management changes to reinvigorate the group
Expect FY13 full year EPS to be 25% below FY12 after impact of restructure provision (prior guidance down 20-25%)
Target financial metrics
Reliable profit growth above A-REIT sector Improved returns (ROE of >11% by FY18)
Continued strength in our balance sheet (20-30% gearing)
FY13 Distribution 24 cps
Maintain 24cps distribution in FY14 assuming no material deterioration in trading conditions
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
4
3Q13 update
3Q13 performance in line with expectations
Retail sales growing:
Comparable MAT per sqm up 2.7%
Comparable specialty MAT per sqm up 3.3%
Retail productivity of $8,841, above national Urbis average and low occupancy costs of 14.1%
Leasing in Industrial and Office progressing well. Weighted average rental growth 3Q13:
Industrial up 3% and Office up 4%
Residential lot volumes improved recently, however margins remain under pressure, due to impaired projects and mix
Additional impairment on previously impaired projects of $49m reflecting further analysis and in some instances divestment negotiations. A material amount of this additional impairment relates to a provision regarding a court appeal, where we have assumed the worst outcome
Since interim results, disposed of one previously impaired project identified for disposal
Retirement Living solid operating result with strong enquiries, steady reservations and reducing cancellations
Key milestones achieved
East Leppington (NSW) rezoning gazetted April 2013
Hervey Bay (Qld) $115m redevelopment commenced, 7.5%[1] yield and 13.8%[1] incremental IRR
==> picture [289 x 157] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
Hervey Bay Schematic
----- End of picture text -----
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
- Pre-AIFRS cash yield and IRR
5
Macro framework
Economic outlook
Improving global growth, although European weakness and US household deleveraging to mute upside
Australia well positioned with population growth, low unemployment and interest rate cuts offset by moderating mining investment, the high AUD and household deleveraging
Interest rates remain low for medium term
Australian property is seen as a safe haven attractive to offshore investors, cap rates are likely to tighten
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
6
Australia well placed but risks remain; residential market recovery underway
Reasons to be optimistic
==> picture [261 x 116] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
12% 6%
Unemployment
10% Rate (LHS) GDP Growth (RHS) 5%
Forecast
4%
8%
3%
6%
2%
4%
1%
2% 0%
0% -1%
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018
----- End of picture text -----
Established Housing market recovering for 6 months Capital city house prices – Annual Growth
==> picture [317 x 122] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
50%
40%
30%
20%
WA
10%
NSW
0% Vic
Qld
-10%
-20%
2003 2006 2009 2012
Growth(%)
Rolling Annual
----- End of picture text -----
Source: ABS, RBA, APM, Deloitte Access Economics, Charter Keck Cramer, Stockland Research
Reasons to be cautious
==> picture [267 x 111] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
60% 20%
50%40% Credit Growth (RHS) Engineering Construction 15%
Growth (LHS)
30% 10%
20%
5%
10%
0% 0%
-10%
Forecast -5%
-20%
-30% -10%
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018
----- End of picture text -----
Vacant Land market starting to respond Vacant Land Market Sales (quarterly)
==> picture [23 x 95] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
----- End of picture text -----
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
7
Historical sector risk-return profiles help define target weightings
Risk-return profile of different asset classes based on direct property (1985-2012)
==> picture [642 x 202] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
Retail significantly outperformed. 28 Residential: strong historic returns
Expect solid future, however Residential with commensurate higher risk.
significant outperformance may not 24 Future returns are expected to be
be replicated due to e-retailing and lower due to statutory contributions
supply dynamics and construction costs
20
16
Retail
12 Industrial
Industrial attractive returns
predominantly driven by yield. Office Office returns have historically been
8
This is beneficial in a low growth the lowest of any commercial
environment. Expect underlying property asset class, with highest
demand drivers to be reasonably 4 volatility. Office is also the most
strong capital intensive.
0
0 10 20 30 40
Risk (standard deviation of return) %p.a. Forecast risk/return
Total return (rolling annual) %p.a.
----- End of picture text -----
Note: Based on direct property returns from 1985-2012 for Retail, Industrial and Office; 2001-2012 for Residential subdivision. These are market returns, not Stockland returns Total return = capital growth + yield for commercial property assets. Total residential return = [(price – cost)x(volume)} / (cost x volume)] Source: IPD, ABS, APM, RBA, HIA
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
8
Hurdle rates reflect sector risk profiles
==> picture [398 x 259] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
IRR hurdle rates
20%
17%
14%
11%
8%
5%
Retail - Retail - Sub Industrial Office Retirement Medium Residential
Regional Regional Logistics CBD Living Density Communities
Increase in volatility across asset classes
IRR
----- End of picture text -----
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
9
We will maintain a strong diverse portfolio to deliver reliable growth
Asset allocation
Asset mix (%)
Target 70-80% assets with recurring earnings, Retail the core focus
Increase exposure to Industrial (primarily logistics related) from 7% today to 10-15% over time
Retain tactical exposure to Office, and continue to downweight post value add initiatives
Target 20-30% trading assets (Residential and Retirement Living (31% today)
Expand Residential and Retirement Living built form initiatives to extend customer reach with medium density
==> picture [380 x 164] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
Other 6% 10% Residential &
Retirement Living 5%
20-30% Retirement Living
Residential 16% 20% overall: 20-30%
Industrial 10% 7% 10-15%
5-10%
15%
26%
Office
Commercial Property
overall: 70-80%
50-70%
47%
36%
Retail
Jun-09 Dec-12 5 year indicative
allocation
----- End of picture text -----
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
10
Continue to drive efficiency and cost management
Ongoing focus on overheads reduction
Achieved ~10% reduction in gross overheads over the past year
70% of overhead headcount reduction has been in support roles
An additional 10% of gross overhead savings (pre inflation increase) are targeted to be captured over the next year
Savings and efficiency improvements have been achieved through:
Continue to drive benefits from these initiatives and seek additional areas of improvement
Centralisation of additional functions
Human resources
Finance
Marketing
Ongoing process improvement
Forecasting
Centralisation of functions
Risk management
Automation of processes
Development management
Procurement savings
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
11
Active capital management
Ensuring optimal mix of funding sources
Debt: continue to maintain conservative gearing ratios
Balance sheet ratios remain within A- metrics and remains a key focus
Gearing maintained within target range (20%-30%)
Expect FY13 cost of debt of 6.2% (FY12: 6.2%)
We will continue to manage our weighted average cost of debt closely and will consider breaking legacy fixed interest swaps to manage our ICR metric
Equity: DRP is appealing as capital inflow is aligned with accretive shopping centre development pipeline. May consider 50% underwritten over the next 12 months
Strong capital management disciplines
Disciplined application of risk adjusted investment hurdles
Reduced Residential and Retirement Living finished goods inventory available for sale down 40%[1] from 30 June 2012
Committed to reducing relative size of Residential land bank over time
Recapitalisation of the Corporation planned
Reallocation of capital from Trust to Corporation proposed for shareholder support at 2013 AGM ~$500m
Capital recycling: We will dispose of assets that don’t meet our risk adjusted targets. Expect $300m asset sales in 2H13, primarily office
Capital partnering: We have undertaken effective capital partnering on select projects and will look to modestly expand this
Continued use of capital effective acquisition structures, particularly in residential
Seek additional partnerships in commercial property. Core stabilised retail is the greatest immediate opportunity given our expertise and investor demand and implied cost of capital
- Represents finished goods available for sale on comparable basis (excludes impact of capitalised interest change and industrial sites acquired since 30 June 2012)
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
12
We continue to pursue a range of partnering options, primary focus retail joint ventures
Capital partnering improves our risk-return profile
Undertaken effective capital partnering on select commercial property and will look to expand our activity
We have a preference for a small number of select partners across targeted large, high quality core assets
==> picture [293 x 151] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
Waterfront Place, Brisbane (JV with the Future Fund)
----- End of picture text -----
Joint venture (JV) or project delivery agreement (PDA):
Retail is the greatest immediate opportunity given our expertise and investor demand
Selective opportunities in Office
Residential: focus on large, long dated projects
Capital effective acquisition: Continue to use for residential acquisitions
Delivery partnership: Investigate use of third party capital & capabilities to deliver projects & infrastructure
Unlisted wholesale syndicate or fund: Wind up SREEF1. Consider in the future but focus on JVs first
Unlisted retail fund: Wind up funds & do not create any new retail funds in the foreseeable future
Listed fund: Possible exit option for some asset classes
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
13
Each business unit has a clear focus
| Business | What is not changing | What is changing and why | Targets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Retail | Current strategy of being a leader in regional areas and having a clear point of difference in metropolitan areas |
More capital partnering to avoid overexposure to some assets and provide funding for accretive $1.5bn development pipeline |
Development: 7-8% pre- AIFRS yield; 13-14% incremental IRR |
| Industrial | Looking to add value to existing assets where appropriate |
Increase exposure over time Take advantage of expected future demand for logistics / warehousing Yields important in a lower growth environment |
$1.2-1.5b portfolio in five years |
| Office | Looking to add value to existing assets where appropriate |
Retain tactical exposure and maximise value from existing assets prior to disposal |
Extract value and progressively down weight |
| Residential | Focus on delivering differentiated masterplanned communities |
Improve returns by: Reshaping the portfolio (no. projects, project size, land bank size) Reducing time to market Reducing the cost base Expanding target customer segments with medium density offering |
~23-25% EBIT margin (in the medium term) 5,000 – 6,000 annual settlements |
| Retirement | Initiatives to create full, happy villages and more of them |
Reduce costs Scale-up development |
6.5% ROA by FY15 8% ROA by FY18 |
| Residential/ Retirement built form |
Delivery of medium density in residential and retirement living businesses |
Greater focus on medium density development within our portfolio, to respond to changing customer preferences (not high rise stand-alone apartments) At the appropriate time add infill development opportunities , which exceed risk-adjusted hurdle rates |
Look to double from current level of ~100 residential units and ~300 retirement units1p.a. by FY18 |
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
- Retirement Living increases are reflected in the Retirement Living ROA targets provided above
14
We are addressing our immediate business priorities
Improve Residential profitability and separate residential portfolio into core and workout
Improve Retirement Living return on assets and explore capital efficient opportunities to improve scale
Grow Commercial Property through development and acquisitions
Continue to enhance value of retail portfolio through redevelopment
Retain and expand Industrial portfolio
Optimise value of existing Office portfolio for asset recycling
Improve organisational efficiency
Strengthen Corporation by seeking security holder approval to reallocate ~$500m of capital from the Trust to the Corporation
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
15
Stockland offers attractive yield and EPS growth
Growth/yield benchmarking – A-REIT and other sectors[1 ]
==> picture [414 x 229] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
13%
12% Lodging and leisure Industrials
Healthcare
11% Diversified financials
Food and staples
10%
All Ordinaries
9%
8% Insurance
Utilities / infrastructure
7%
Telecommunications
6%
5% Banks Stockland (through cycle)
4% A-REITs
3%
2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%
1-year forward dividend yield
FY13-15 forecast EPS growth
----- End of picture text -----
- Source: Bloomberg; UBS Research. Sector metrics represent arithmetic averages of the following constituents: Banks – BEN, BOQ, ANZ, CBA, NAB, WBC; Diversified Financials – ASX, CGF, CPU, MQG, PPT, SUN; Food and Staples – WES, WOW, CCL, GFF, TWE; Industrials – LEI, UGL, BLY, LLC, IPL, NUF, ORI, ABC, BLD, CSR, JHX, AMC; Healthcare – ANN, COH, CSL, PRY, SHL, SRX; Lodging and Leisure – ALL, CWN, EGP, TAH, TTS; Insurance – AMP, IAG, QBE; Media – FXJ, NWS, SWM; Telecommunications – TLS, SGT, TEL; Utilities / Infrastructure – AIO, MAP, TCL, TOL, AGK, APA, DUE
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
16
==> picture [59 x 59] intentionally omitted <==
Retail
==> picture [772 x 390] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
Stockland Townsville, Qld
----- End of picture text -----
Summary
We have built strong capability and believe that quality Retail property will continue to deliver attractive risk-adjusted returns
Our Retail strategy is to be the leader in regional areas, and have a clear point of difference in metropolitan areas
At the start of FY07, we had a $3.5b retail portfolio in a compressed cap rate environment. We have since sold $900m of underperforming assets, and assets in passive JVs
By focusing on development, selective acquisitions, and strong leasing and management, we have built a $5.3b[1] portfolio of quality retail assets. Our aspiration is to build a ~$7.5b portfolio in the next five years
We are in the top four Australian listed retail owners and our retailers consider our portfolio key to their future growth plans
Structural change
Technological change, the emergence of new offshore retailers and business models, and demographic shifts all impacting how we shop and where we spend
Majority of spending will be captured in store, despite the continued penetration of online retailing, including omni-channel
The relative strength of different retail categories will continue to shift over time
Our retail mix is well positioned due to our focus on food, convenience and retail services
We will continue to redevelop assets to consolidate and improve their local market position, where development will deliver enhanced returns
18 assets in our development pipeline over the next ten years; eight planned to commence in the next two years
Target returns: 13-14% incremental IRR; 7-8% incremental yield (pre-AIFRS cash)
Hurdle IRR: regional centres 8.25%; sub-regional centres 8.75%
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
- As at 31 December 2012
1
Stockland Retail portfolio evolution – 2006 to 2013
| June 2006 $3.5b WA December 2013 $5.5b1 WA SA $0.5b $1.8b $0.9b (Net Revals) $0.5b Karrinyup (25%) – FY08 Jimboomba S.C. JV – FY07 Book Value Capital Expenditure Acquisitions Book Value Disposal |
June 2006 $3.5b WA December 2013 $5.5b1 WA SA $0.5b $1.8b $0.9b (Net Revals) $0.5b Karrinyup (25%) – FY08 Jimboomba S.C. JV – FY07 Book Value Capital Expenditure Acquisitions Book Value Disposal |
June 2006 $3.5b WA December 2013 $5.5b1 WA SA $0.5b $1.8b $0.9b (Net Revals) $0.5b Karrinyup (25%) – FY08 Jimboomba S.C. JV – FY07 Book Value Capital Expenditure Acquisitions Book Value Disposal |
June 2006 $3.5b WA December 2013 $5.5b1 WA SA $0.5b $1.8b $0.9b (Net Revals) $0.5b Karrinyup (25%) – FY08 Jimboomba S.C. JV – FY07 Book Value Capital Expenditure Acquisitions Book Value Disposal |
June 2006 $3.5b WA December 2013 $5.5b1 WA SA $0.5b $1.8b $0.9b (Net Revals) $0.5b Karrinyup (25%) – FY08 Jimboomba S.C. JV – FY07 Book Value Capital Expenditure Acquisitions Book Value Disposal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 2006 $3.5b WA SA |
WA December 2013 $5.5b1 (Net Revals) $0.5b |
|||
| NSW 53% QLD 27% VIC 7% NZ 6% 5% 2% |
Botany Town (50%) – FY08 Lynnmall (50%) – FY08 Manuka (50%) – FY08 Parabanks – FY08 Batemans Bay – FY09 Lilydale – FY12 Bay Village – FY13 |
Wallsend – FY08 Cammeray – FY09 Hervey Bay – FY11 Point Cook – FY11 Townsville Kmart – FY12 |
Devex only Merrylands Rockhampton Townsville Shellharbour (to date) 10 Other projects completed |
NSW 57% Qld 27% Vic 12% 4% |
| 39 Retail centres Sub-regionals and neighbourhoods Low cap rates across all retail asset types Average cap rate 6.3% |
Actively disposed of holdings in passive JVs and optimised our footprint Over $500m of passive retail sold at the peak of the market in FY08 |
Maintained our discipline and did not over-acquire in the lead up to the GFC Following the market correction, we have taken a cautious approach and waited for volatility to subside and values to stabilise |
Remained committed to a quality portfolio and maintained or reinvested in our assets We have continued to develop and upgrade the portfolio through the cycle 7.0% weighted average yield2 (14 completed retail projects); blended incremental IRR ~ 11.7% |
41 Retail centres Positioned for future growth 8 DAs secured Average cap rate 7.0% 1H13 Average IRR 10.5% 1H13 |
-
Estimated by 31 December 2013
-
Pre-AIFRS
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
2
Top four Australian listed Retail property owner
Listed entities, Australian assets on balance sheet Book Value December 2012 ($b)
Number of centres
(including part ownership)
==> picture [494 x 185] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
Westfield Group 13.0 39
Westfield Retail Trust 12.2 38
Colonial (CFX) 8.3 29
Stockland 5.3
Shellharbour will be a 41
major regional on
GPT 4.4 completion; targeting
$7.5b portfolio by 10
FY17/18
Federation 4.1
47
Major and Super Regional
Mirvac 1.7 Regional
Sub Regional 19
Neighbourhood & Other
Charter Hall 1.6
75
----- End of picture text -----
Note: SGP assets include ~$820m WIP at Dec 2012. Federation’s value accounts for $371m co-ownership transaction with ISPT announced in February 2013 (reported book value Dec 2012 (pretransaction) is $4.4b). Westfield Group excludes capital works in progress. CFX excludes capital works in progress and investment in associate trusts. Shopping centre classifications as per PCA database
Source: Colliers International; Company websites; SGP analysis
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
3
Retail spend will grow in real terms but at a slower rate to the last 10 years
Historical real (ex-inflation) retail market sales growth in Australia
Historical retail spending has been driven by population growth and increase in spend per capita
CAGR to March 2013
Growth has moderated in recent years as consumers have become more cautious and deleverage
Population growth alone will contribute ~1.5% p.a. growth in retail spend in the future
Online will continue to capture increased market share but majority of sales will be transacted through the store networks
==> picture [235 x 79] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
4.1%
3.6% 3.4%
2.0% 2.3% 1.5-3%
30 year 20 year 10 year 5 year 2 year 10 year
forecast
----- End of picture text -----
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
Source: ABS, Stockland Research
4
Although online will keep growing, shopping centres will continue to play an important role in future growth
Benefits of shopping in store
Stockland Monash University Retail Barometer, Oct and Nov 2012
==> picture [565 x 238] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
Can see the product before purchasing 86%
Can feel/ try the product before purchasing 81%
Can physically compare products 66%
Less risky than shopping online 59%
Supports local retailers 57%
Can get advice from shop staff 56%
Immediate delivery 54%
A more enjoyable experience 23%
More convenient 16%
Better quality products 12%
Better prices in-store 9%
Other (please specify)Other 1%
Shoppers still want the touch and feel benefits of in-store shopping
----- End of picture text -----
Source: Stockland Monash University Retail Barometer (2,016 participants), Oct and Nov 2012
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
5
Some fine retail categories are more impacted than others by online: Retail shop mix adjusting
| % of Retail sales online1 Dec 12 |
Recent Forecast Growth Trend |
|
|---|---|---|
| Music, Movie & Books | 66% | Slowing |
| Toys, Games & Hobbies | 20% | Accelerating |
| Clothing and Accessories | 10% | Slowing |
| Specialised Food & Alcohol | 9% | Steady |
| Furniture, Electronics & Appliances | 8% | Accelerating |
| Supermarkets | 2% | Slowing |
| Total Retail Sales | **6%1 ** | Slowing |
- Total retail spend excludes cafes, restaurants and take-away food, retail services, travel and non-retail (eg. gyms, cinemas). Total Retail Sales only adjusted for cash transactions. Category level proportions are for specialty retailers only with no adjustment made for cash
Source: A comprehensive commissioned study by The Quantium Group– Market Blueprint
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
6
Structural change creates opportunity
Significant growth in e-Commerce
Rapid uptake in technology, changing the way people shop
==> picture [30 x 38] intentionally omitted <==
More than 10 million Australians transacted online in 2012
50% of Australians have a smart phone
Online market now exceeds $14b (6% or 9% ex. cash); expected to reach 14% (ex. cash) in 10 years
1 in 5 use mobile searches in-store
Price comparison websites and applications enable immediate price comparisons
==> picture [244 x 49] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
Online as a proportion of total retail spend [1 ]
6%
5%
4% Online offshore
Online onshore
2010 2011 2012
----- End of picture text -----
==> picture [19 x 18] intentionally omitted <==
==> picture [16 x 15] intentionally omitted <==
==> picture [17 x 15] intentionally omitted <==
==> picture [26 x 15] intentionally omitted <==
Social media influences behaviour
Demographic shift and changing consumer preferences
New entrants and evolving business models
Global retailers Manufacturers Growth in coming to Australia opening stores online marketplaces
Underfunded baby boomers
==> picture [47 x 16] intentionally omitted <==
“Experience-based” spending
==> picture [33 x 21] intentionally omitted <==
==> picture [31 x 21] intentionally omitted <==
==> picture [50 x 15] intentionally omitted <==
Decline in credit growth
==> picture [38 x 12] intentionally omitted <==
==> picture [32 x 11] intentionally omitted <==
==> picture [19 x 23] intentionally omitted <==
==> picture [46 x 19] intentionally omitted <==
Real and perceived increases in cost of living
==> picture [39 x 11] intentionally omitted <==
==> picture [36 x 9] intentionally omitted <==
==> picture [80 x 15] intentionally omitted <==
==> picture [35 x 38] intentionally omitted <==
- Total retail spend excludes cafes, restaurants and take-away food, retail services, travel and non-retail (gyms, cinemas) Source: The Quantium Group – Market Blueprint; Google & eBay company presentations
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
7
Quality retail rarely changes hands; development drives returns
Capitalisation rate (%)
Quality retail is especially hard to acquire
==> picture [612 x 222] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
12 Retail Transaction Value by Asset Category ($b)
Includes WDC/AMP
11 JV assets
6.3
10
4.4 4.5
Neighbourhood 3.4
9 & other 2.3
Industrial Sub-Regional 1.8
8 Regional 0.3
Office 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
7 (to date)
Retail #
6 Neighbourhood 116 79 86 106 115 91 1
& Other
5 Sub-Regional 7 6 12 9 12 13 1
4 Regional 2 1 1 3 2 11 1
1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
Cap rates for Retail property 10 of the 11 regionals sold in 2012 were
have tightened the most since 1984 passive shares purchased by third party capital
----- End of picture text -----
Source: Capitalisation rate1984-1992: BOMA of Australia Limited, 1995- 2012: IPD database. Retail transactions: Jones Lang LaSalle Research
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
8
Retail has experienced greatest capital growth in last 25 years
Capital Change in value - capex Growth %: Start value + capex
Average capital growth (Rolling Annual) % p.a.
Industrial: Industrial Estate Industrial: Specialised Industrial: High-Tech Business… Industrial: Distribution Industrial: Warehouse Retail: Other Retail: Bulky Goods Retail: Neighbourhood Retail: Sub-Regional Retail: Regional Retail: Super & Major Regional Office: Non-CBD Office: CBD 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
Source: IPD Australia
9
Success in Retail is asset specific driven by location, competitive position and product and service offering
| Demand | |
|---|---|
| Size, composition and growth potential in the main trade area | |
| Attractiveness | It is generally better to be in areas of higher growth than lower growth |
| of local market | Supply of retail space |
| Competitive landscape in the surrounding trade area (quantity and quality) | |
| It is generally better to be in less competitive areas than more competitive areas | |
| It is generally more desirable to: | |
| Competitive | Be the leader (the biggest) in the local market to attract the best retailers and more customers so |
| positioning | we can provide a product and service that is compelling |
| Have a clear point of difference | |
| The right retail tenant mix differs by type of centre: | |
| Neighbourhood Centres must have a convenience offer, with everyday products and services. | |
| "One stop for basic needs" | |
| Sub-Regional & Regional centres require quality anchors and a breadth of offer great enough to | |
| Tenant mix | attract customers and increase the length of stay |
| Sustainability of occupancy costs | |
| For all centres, the retail tenant mix should be appropriate to the local market to maximise revenues | |
| and increase foot traffic |
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
10
Retail sales growing despite consumer caution; changes in retail mix improving productivity
3Q13 Update
Total sales growth strong, pursuant to completing developments
Specialty shop growth in the comparable centres, is stronger per square metre due to active leasing and remerchandising
Discount department store (DDS) performance dragging the total moving annual turnover (MAT) comparable growth
89% of specialty shop leases are on fixed annual increases 4-5%; 11% CPI
Reconfirm post-AIFRS comparable NOI growth in range of 2-3% for FY13. Cash growth slightly higher
Moving annual turnover growth
==> picture [281 x 225] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
5.1%
3.3% 3.3%
2.9% 3.0% 3.0%
2.7%
1.3%
FY12 3Q13 FY12 3Q13 FY12 3Q13 FY12 3Q13
Total MAT growth Comparable Comparable Comparable
MAT growth MAT per sqm specialty MAT per
growth sqm growth
Rent reversion year to date
No. of Deals Rental growth
Lease renewals 168 2.5%
New leases 129 1.1%
Total portfolio 297 1.9%
----- End of picture text -----
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
11
Historical MAT sales and MAT $/sqm[1 ] comparable portfolio
Total sales
==> picture [266 x 150] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
4,500 MAT sales 7,900
4,450
MAT psqm [1 ] 7,800
4,400
4,350 7,700
4,300
7,600
4,250
4,200 7,500
4,150
7,400
4,100
4,050 7,300
MAT Sales (Millions)
----- End of picture text -----
Specialty sales
==> picture [266 x 151] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
1,220 8,900
MAT sales
8,800
1,200
8,700
1,180
8,600
MAT psqm [1 ]
1,160 8,500
1,140 8,400
8,300
1,120
8,200
1,100
8,100
1,080 8,000
MAT sales (Millions)
----- End of picture text -----
Specialty shop MAT/sqm growth outperforming overall Specialty shop absolute MAT growth due to:
Improved productivity due to remixing
Conversion of underperforming specialties to mini majors
Conversion to better performing specialty categories such as food catering, retail services and non-reporting retail
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
- MAT $/sqm based on retailers trading for 24 months
12
Increasing resilience of the rental base
Rental composition has reduced reliance on some fine discretionary retail categories
Other Retail reduced (pharmacy, toys, pets, music, books, games, sporting goods and newsagents)
Retail Services increased (reporting and non-reporting)
Mini Majors and Specialty Food increased
Department Stores and DDS decreased
==> picture [293 x 197] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
18% 15% Other Retail
13% 16% Retail services – reporting
and non reporting
19% 20% Apparel and Jewellery
13%
14% Speciality Food
9%
10% Mini Majors
14%
13% Supermarkets
14% 12% DDS and Department Stores
June 2006 Gross Rent March 2013 Gross Rent
----- End of picture text -----
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
13
Stockland MAT outperformed industry benchmarks
Comparable MAT growth – Specialty 24 month in place per sqm
| Solid retail sales growth | Solid retail sales growth | Solid retail sales growth |
|---|---|---|
| SGP Total1 MAT growth |
ABS Total2 MAT growth |
|
| Specialty shops | 7.7% | 2.6% |
| Supermarkets | 4.6% | 4.1% |
| Department / DDS | 2.8% | 1.3% |
| Other3 | 4.0% | n/a |
| Total MAT growth (12 months to March 13) |
5.1% | 2.9% |
==> picture [311 x 131] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
+4.7%
$8,841
$8,642
$8,447
$7,800
Sub-Regional 2011/12 Urbis average for March 2012 Stockland 4 Stockland Dec 2012 March 2013 Stockland
----- End of picture text -----
-
Total portfolio
-
ABS Retail Trade, Australia Catalogue: 8501.0
-
Includes mini-majors and cinemas
-
March 2012 Specialty MAT is re-based for March 2013 comparable
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
14
We have a significant development pipeline driving growth
==> picture [602 x 284] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
Neighbourhood Sub regional Regional Major regional
Support Stockland Core focus on those with expansion potential Expand bigger centres where
communities demand exists
Development rationale
Keep those that can grow
Repositioning
Completed Merrylands
Defensive
Townsville Stage 1
Under construction Shellharbour
Hervey Bay Growth
Jimboomba 1 Wetherill Park
Baldivis
Next wave of
commencements Gladstone Target returns
(FY14-15) Point Cook
13-14% incremental IRR
Green Hills 1
Wendouree 7-8% incremental yield
Traralgon Glendale (pre-AIFRS cash)
Rockhampton 2
Nowra
Future projects North Shore 2 Townsville 2
Merrylands Ct
Burleigh
Forster
Typical GLA < 10,000 sqm 10,000 to 40,000 sqm 40,000 to 60,000 sqm 60,000 to 85,000 sqm
----- End of picture text -----
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
*Centre developed on acquired land as part of Residential Community activity
15
Actively refining our product and our retail tenant mix
-
1 Defining the trade area 2 Understanding market share and leakage
-
Expected Actual 3 Retail mix planning and execution
-
~200,000 people, $2.2b ~375,000 people, $4.5b retail spend retail spend
-
Confirm development opportunity
-
Support leasing decisions at a category and specific retailer level
-
Sophisticated and targeted marketing to retailers and customers
Stockland Shellharbour
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
16
Maximising risk-adjusted returns
Taking advantage of new opportunities
Attract more customers and enhance experience – adopting new technologies
E.g. My Stockland App; Centre Facebook pages; Wi Fi rollout
Continued focus on improving customer amenity
Mitigating risk
- Ongoing active investment management of our Retail portfolio
Develop / redevelop / refurbish
Buy / sell / joint venture
- Lock down key anchors for the long term
E.g. Upgrading My Funland design; parents room; lounge areas; park assist
- Continued shifting of services from the “street into the mall”
Localised tenant / brand mix
E.g. Ivan’s Butchery at Merrylands; Berkelouw Books at Balgowlah
Programs to develop community hubs (asset specific)
E.g. Salvation Army Employment Plus at Shellharbour
-
Lease changes to capture online sales fulfilled from the stores
-
Develop centres to provide flexibility for future retail formats
-
Retailer risk management to inform leasing decisions
Pursue retail asset acquisitions in high growth markets
Number one or two in main trade area, trade area with population of at least 50,000 & growing
Worth at least $100m or with clear pathway to $100m
-
Key retailer account management – maximise leverage
-
Mobile iPad leasing – reduce time to open new stores
Management, leasing and development upside
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
17
Active Retail developments
Completed
Merrylands Regional valued at $474m 1H13; 6.25% cap rate; initial trading results encouraging
Under Construction and Completing
Townsville Regional total project cost $181m; external valuation 1H14 Shellharbour Major Regional total project cost $330m; external valuation 1H14
Commenced
Hervey Bay large Sub-Regional $115m investment; 7.5% yield[1 ] and 13.8%[1 ] incremental IRR
Planned to Commence FY14
Wetherill Park (major upgrade and expansion)
Baldivis (expansion)
Jimboomba (greenfield)
Gladstone (tear down, rebuild and upgrade) Green Hills (major upgrade and expansion)
==> picture [199 x 133] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
Shellharbour Major Regional Centre Redevelopment
----- End of picture text -----
==> picture [199 x 133] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
Shellharbour Major Regional Centre Redevelopment
Shellharbour Major Regional Centre Redevelopment
----- End of picture text -----
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
- Pre-AIFRS cash yield and IRR
18
Summary
There has been significant transformation in Stockland Retail in the last seven years, with total value approaching $5.5bn by the end of this year, creating a higher quality portfolio of assets with sustainable cash flows. We are now a scale player among our listed Retail peers in an ownership sense
The execution of our forward Retail development pipeline, delivering growth in recurring income for the Trust, higher fee income and balance sheet value. We are targeting to exceed $7.5bn in value in the next five years
We will continue to organically grow the overall asset base not only through the development pipeline, but also through very active management and leasing, strong investment management of the overall portfolio and selective acquisition in key markets
Hervey Bay Schematic
Quality Retail property assets are scarce and in high demand. The IRRs we can deliver on a weighted average basis are well above our WACC
We have built the internal capability to deliver and are confident about our future
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
19
==> picture [59 x 59] intentionally omitted <==
Industrial
==> picture [772 x 390] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
Yennora, NSW
----- End of picture text -----
Executive summary
Industrial has historically generated reasonably attractive risk-adjusted returns and we expect similar future returns
Average 11% p.a. total return over last 30 years with 8-9% yield; is the highest income yielding commercial property asset class
Future demand is expected to be strong
Asset type and location are critical
Developable land is highly sought after and pre-commitments are competitive
The market favours large, new, high grade facilities that are able to meet changing technology and logistics requirements, and are adjacent to transport nodes
Our $820m portfolio
Is relatively management intensive, including some older assets with short WALEs
In the past 2 years, returns have underperformed the market. Influenced by the fact that we do not have any distribution centres with long term leases
Assets will require investment to maintain their market relevance and attractiveness to tenants
We are making progress and the majority of the portfolio is expected to deliver an average IRR of 10%
We are a top ten player in this market and look to increase our exposure, targeting $1.2 - $1.5b in 5 years
Take advantage of future demand for logistics / warehousing to provide an alternative source of stable income. Higher yields are beneficial in a relatively low growth environment
$1.2-1.5b portfolio would deliver
$90-120m NOI[1]
7.5-8% income yield
IRR investment hurdle 9-9.5%+ for stable assets
We will grow by
Actively managing and leasing our existing portfolio
Take advantage of development opportunities within our portfolio Sourcing pre-commitments and completing design and construct Acquiring assets that fit our strategic filters
Developing internal capability to deliver growth
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
- Pre-AIFRS
1
3Q13 Industrial metrics
==> picture [231 x 154] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
Toll Business Park, Melbourne
----- End of picture text -----
Occupancy 88.1%
WALE increased to 3.3 years (up from 2.7 years at FY12)
Executed an additional 50,900 sqm of leases since 1H13, bringing the total leases executed to 3Q13 to 177,900 sqm
A further 70,100 sqm of leases in Heads of Agreement
3Q13 weighted average base rent growth of 3% y/y; weighted average incentive of 7%
Key Industrial leasing deals
| Property | Building area (sqm) | Area leased (sqm) | Leased to | Building WALE (years) | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yennora, Sydney | 297,342 | 71,533 | Australian Wool Handlers; Queensland Cotton; Sussan Corporation |
3.6 | New Tenant, Tenant renewals |
| 20-50 & 76-82 Fillo Drive & 10 Stubb Street, Melbourne |
71,326 | 18,822 | Yakka (Pacific Brands) | 2.3 | Tenant renewal |
| Toll Business Park, Melbourne | 52,448 | 17,577 | Toll | 3.7 | Tenant renewal |
| Hendra, Brisbane | 83,780 | 6,889 | Global Express (Fastways) | 5.1 | Tenant renewal |
| Altona, Melbourne | 39,364 | 6,165 | Autonexus | 3.0 | Tenant renewal |
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
2
Outlook for the industrial market is positive
Industrial assets have relatively high income yields and are less capital intensive than office assets
Gross take-up of industrial space in Australia as at 4Q12 (sqm, 000s)
==> picture [314 x 107] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
3,000
2,000 10 year average
1,000
Completed
Plans approved/submitted
0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Includes take-up of traditional and high-tech space
----- End of picture text -----*
Yield 8-9% on average
Fundamental drivers are strong
Port volumes and warehousing demand continue to grow, supported by population growth and increases in imported goods (including from online and offline retailing)
Imports are expected to grow 10% p.a. in next 10 years
Container movements through Port of Melbourne, Australia’s largest container port, are forecast to double over the next 10-12 years
There are proposals to increase Sydney’s port capacity
Growing tenant demand
National development pipeline as at 4Q12 (sqm, 000s)
Strengthening, now around the 10 year annual average
Vacancy rate for existing A-grade facilities in major Australian markets remains low
==> picture [682 x 127] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
3,000
Incentives for prime logistics facilities are generally ranging from 10-15%
Competitors are actively developing, although supply is currently forecast
to be lower than demand in the short and medium term 2,000
10 year average
Investors favour high quality product
Large, modern logistics/ distribution assets near major transport corridors/ 1,000 Completed
ports Under construction
Blue chip tenants with long leases and attractive lease covenants Plans approved/submitted
0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20132014
As at 1Q13
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research
----- End of picture text -----*
3
Stockland currently has 14 Industrial assets* valued at $0.82b
| Asset | Region | Value add potential |
Book Value Dec 2012 ($m) |
**Cap Rate1 ** |
10 year IRR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estates | ||||||
| Yennora Distribution Centre | Sydney Outer Central West, NSW | | 344 | 8.00% | 10.00% | |
| Port Adelaide Distribution Centre | Adelaide, SA | | 83 | 9.50% | 9.00% | |
| Hendra Distribution Centre | Brisbane, Qld | | 82 | 9.25% | 10.50% | |
| Brooklyn Estate | Melbourne West, Vic | | 80 | 9.25% | 9.80% | |
| Altona Distribution Centre | Melbourne West, Vic | | 27 | 9.25% | 10.20% | |
| Stand alone assets | 616 | |||||
| 20-50 & 76-82 Fillo Drive & 10 Stubb Street Somerton Melbourne North, Vic 46 9.00 – 9.25% 10.3% |
||||||
| 9-11A Ferndell Street Granville Sydney Outer Central West, NSW 42 9.25 – 10.00% 11.60% |
||||||
| 1090-1124 Centre Road Oakleigh | Melbourne South, Vic | | 32 | 9.25% | 9.50% | |
| 11-25 Toll Drive Altona | Melbourne West, Vic | 16 | 8.25 – 8.50% | 10.00% | ||
| 32-54 Toll Drive Altona | Melbourne West, Vic | 15 | ||||
| 56-60 Toll Drive Altona | Melbourne West, Vic | 15 | ||||
| 2 Davis Road Wetherill Park | Sydney Outer Central West, NSW | | 16 | 9.25% | 9.80% | |
| Export Park (9-13 Viola Place, Brisbane Airport) Brisbane, Qld 13 9.00% 9.20% |
||||||
| 40 Scanlon Drive Epping Melbourne North, Vic 8 8.75% 9.10% |
||||||
| 203 | ||||||
| Total Weighted Average: 819 8.70% 10.00% |
- As at 1H13
Note: *Counting Toll assets separately; excludes M1 Yatala Enterprise Park land
- As at 1H13
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
4
Overall, we are a relatively small player in a highly concentrated asset class
Value of Australian industrial assets under management
==> picture [632 x 244] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
WIP
Other
Funds
GTA
Unlisted Funds GAIF
DWPF
DIF
GMG DXS CHC $0.82
On balance sheet
CPIF
Active" developer Goodman Dexus Australand Charter Hall GPT Growthpoint Properties Stockland APPF Mirvac Industrial Fund 360 Capital Challenger Abacus Cromwell
----- End of picture text -----
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
Note: Includes Australian assets only; based on latest company reports, results presentations and property portfolios
5
75% of assets by value are larger estates
Greatest exposure is in NSW and VIC
Yennora accounts for >40% of portfolio by value
SA (10%, $83m, 1 asset) Qld Stand alone (12%, $94m, 2 assets) (25%, $204m, 9 assets) Vic (29% $240m, 8 assets) Estates (33% $271m, 4 assets) NSW Intermodal (49%, $402m, 3 assets) (42%, $344m, 1 asset)
==> picture [45 x 156] intentionally omitted <==
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
Note: Counting Toll assets separately; Excludes M1 Yatala Enterprise Park
6
Our portfolio faces some challenges, which also present opportunities for growth
| Issue | Challenge | Opportunity | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WALE 3.3 years1 | > | We don’t have any distribution centres with | > | Get into the D&C deal flow for new |
| very long term leases. Our portfolio is | distribution centres with the Retailers | |||
| relatively leasing intensive | ||||
| Assets generally >10 years old: some from | > | Difficult to compete with newer assets | > | Redevelop old stock that is well located |
| early 1970s; some buildings date back to | and improve the IRR | |||
| 1940s | ||||
| Small portfolio | > | Limited choice for customers in terms of | > | Expand asset base through |
| location, quality and price range | redevelopment, D&C and acquisition | |||
| Small land bank | > | Limited ability to create new assets for | > | Consider land banking where appropriate |
| existing and new tenants | ||||
| A third of GLA has <6m warehouse | > | Risk of functional obsolescence | > | Redevelop old stock and improve the IRR |
| clearance |
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
- Weighted average based on GLA, 3Q13
7
Opportunities to redevelop some of our assets and improve returns
| Site | Potential improvements | Target returns 11-14% incremental IRR 8.5-9.5% incremental yield (pre-AIFRS cash) |
|---|---|---|
| Yennora Distribution Centre | Develop ~15,000 sqm of surplus land. Rebuild older warehouses 1 and 2 to enhance income and value |
|
| Hendra Distribution Centre | Develop ~20,000 sqm of Arterial Land. Demolish and rebuild obsolete sheds. Upgrade existing Kmart building for a proposed light industrial / commercial / showroom use1 |
|
| 2 Davis Road | Development of 6,500 sqm of under utilised land | |
| Brooklyn Estate | Redevelop older stock to increase clearance, improve turning circles, create new hardstand and upgrade |
|
| Port Adelaide Distribution Centre |
Develop ~14,000 sqm of surplus land, increase warehouse clearances and upgrade |
|
| Altona Distribution Centre | Increase clearance and upgrade | |
| Centre Rd Oakleigh | Increase clearance and upgrade (longer term future change of use to medium density residential development) |
|
| Ferndell St Granville | Increase clearance (longer term future change of use to medium density residential development) |
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
- At lease expiry
8
Example of completed development
CEVA building at Altona: 14.0% incremental yield[1]
Development of new warehouse on existing vacant land and redevelopment of existing warehouse
Developed an additional 5,000 sqm of warehouse and 9,100 sqm of hardstand
$5.5m development cost
$9.2m end value based on 8.5% cap rate
5 year lease to CEVA
Ten year incremental IRR [1 ] 18%
==> picture [261 x 175] intentionally omitted <==
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
- Pre-AIFRS
9
Example of Pipeline development opportunity
Proposed Warehouse at Hendra
Development of new warehouse on surplus land
15,000 sqm of warehouse, office and parking
Well located site Attractive incremental returns
| Pro-forma feasibility | |
|---|---|
| Incremental income $2.0m1 |
|
| Estimated development cost $18.4m |
|
| Incremental yield 10.8% |
|
| Cap rate on completion 8.5% |
|
| Estimated end value $23.0m |
|
| Projected incremental IRR 14%1 |
==> picture [313 x 210] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
Lot 20
----- End of picture text -----
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
- Pre-AIFRS
10
There are several superlot opportunities within Stockland’s residential land bank for design and construct
| Possible consolidation / reconfiguration of an existing 32 hectare site | |
|---|---|
| Mango Hill | Potential to create up to 110,000 sqm of developable industrial, |
| subject to lease pre-commits | |
| An undeveloped Residential Communities site located in the south | |
| western logistics corridor of Brisbane | |
| Pallara | Given proximity to major transport network, the site may lend itself to |
| industrial development | |
| Developable area estimated at 67 hectares | |
| Future master planned communities |
Includes opportunities at North Shore Townsville; Caloundra South and Lockerbie over the next 10 – 12 years |
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
11
We are developing our capability to deliver growth
We retain control of strategic asset
management, leasing, development, project management and refurbishment in Industrial and Office
Outsourcing arrangement with CBRE working well
Over 50 people dedicated to office and industrial portfolio
The partnership with CBRE has delivered good results and reduced internal overhead. CBRE’s scope includes:
Property management
Facilities management
Property management accounting
==> picture [395 x 181] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
Commercial Property CEO
Stockland– Project Industrial CBRE Office Asset
Management & Delivery Industrial and Office Management
Cost planning Client Relationships Property Management Leasing
Design management National Leasing Facilities Management Asset and investment
management
Procurement Asset Management Property Management
Accounting Refurbishment
Delivery management Redevelopment of
existing assets Development
New Design and
Construction
Acquisitions and
disposals
----- End of picture text -----
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
12
Office
==> picture [59 x 59] intentionally omitted <==
==> picture [772 x 390] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
Waterfront Place
Eagle Street Pier
----- End of picture text -----
Executive summary
Office has historically had lower and more volatile returns than retail and industrial assets
In the short to medium term, we expect Office demand to be weak relative to supply
We have been actively managing the composition of our Office portfolio since 2009
Sold $1 billion in investment assets
Our portfolio is valued at ~$1.5b.Premium and A-grade assets make up around 90% of the portfolio by value
We will have a “tactical” exposure to office investment assets
We will optimise income from our office assets in the short to medium term and add value via active management
We will progressively down-weight at the appropriate time, after we have maximised value
We will seek to take advantage of the value-add opportunities within our existing portfolio
We will consider joint ventures (or partial sales) as appropriate
We will not be forced sellers
IRR investment hurdle 9-9.75%+ p.a. for stable assets
The portfolio currently has a WALE of 4.4 years and is expected to generate $118.5m NOI[1] in FY13
The portfolio does have some challenges, including a relatively high exposure to non-CBD markets and a few ageing assets
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
- Post-AIFRS NOI
1
3Q13 Office metrics
Occupancy 95.9%
WALE 4.4 years
Up to 3Q13, executed 39,000 sqm of leases with a further:
14,200 sqm of leases pending execution
5,200 sqm of commercial terms agreed
3Q13 weighted average base rent growth of 4%; weighted average incentive of 15%
Executed $336m[1] office sales year to date
Key Office leasing deals
==> picture [232 x 153] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
2 Victoria Avenue, Perth
----- End of picture text -----
| Property | Building area (sqm) | Area leased (sqm) | Leased to | Building WALE (years) | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waterfront Place2 | 58,754 | 7,860 | Minter Ellison | 5.9 | Tenant renewal |
| 601 Pacific Highway | 12,677 | 7,283 | IBM | 3.7 | Tenant renewal |
| 135 King Street2 | 27,159 | 6,499 | Moore Stephens; M&D Services; Regus; Gadens |
4.7 | New leases |
| Piccadilly Tower 29,680 2,950 University of Sydney; EWON 4.2 New leases |
|||||
| 110 Walker Street 4,417 1,009 Super IQ 3.9 New leases |
-
Settled and unconditionally exchanged
-
100% shares – these two assets are joint ventured
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
2
Office investment assets: total returns more volatile
Rolling annual total return over time: (% p.a.)
==> picture [650 x 179] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
40
Office
30
Retail
Industrial
20
10
0
-10
-20
----- End of picture text -----
==> picture [38 x 42] intentionally omitted <==
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
Source: IPD
3
In the short to medium term, we expect Office demand to be weak relative to supply
Incentives for prime grade office assets - CBD
Overall, demand is weak relative to supply
Has resulted in high incentives in all markets except Perth for the past three years
Sectors that drive office demand, like Finance, Government, Business Services and Mining are expected to be relatively flat in the short to medium term
Businesses continue to consolidate office space to minimise costs
Workspace ratios continue to decline, but at slower rates than seen in last decade because many gains have already been achieved
Workspace ratios forecast to fall by ~1 sqm/person by 2022, compared to ~2 sqm/person between 2002-2012
Although some Office managers are reportedly observing increased levels of enquiry, we expect a challenging year ahead
The global and domestic capital chasing quality office assets is potentially outpacing the underlying fundamentals
==> picture [314 x 154] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
30%
Sydney
Brisbane
25% Melbourne
20%
15%
10%
Perth
5%
0%
----- End of picture text -----
==> picture [242 x 59] intentionally omitted <==
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research
4
We have sufficient critical mass to enable execution of our value add strategy
Australian Office Assets Under Management
==> picture [621 x 204] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
Fund
Balance
sheet
$1.5b
Dexus Charter Hall GPT Brookfield Investa Colonial Mirvac Cromwell Stockland Lend Lease Australand Growthpoint Challenger Abacus Trafalgar
----- End of picture text -----
Note: Includes Australian only assets; based on latest company reports, results presentations and property portfolios. Transactions announced after results presentations may not be reflected. Other assets owned and/or managed by Brookfield are not reflected as not disclosed
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
5
Stockland currently has 19 office assets worth $1.5b
| Asset | Region | Book Value Dec 2012 ($m) |
Asset | Region | Book Value Dec 2012 ($m) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premium | B Grade | |||||
| Waterfront Place (50%) | Brisbane CBD | 250 | ||||
| Garden Square | Brisbane – suburban |
38 | ||||
| 250 | ||||||
| A Grade | ||||||
| 16 Giffnock Ave | Macquarie Park | 36 | ||||
| Piccadilly Tower & Court1 |
Sydney CBD | 309 | Macquarie Technology Centre |
Macquarie Park | 34 | |
| Triniti Business Campus |
Macquarie Park | 168 | ||||
| 110 Walker St | North Sydney | 24 | ||||
| Durack Centre | Perth CBD | 150 | 132 | |||
| Optus Centre (31%) | Macquarie Park | 116 | ||||
| Other(held for mixed use redevelopment) | ||||||
| 135 King St (50%) | Sydney CBD | 96 | ||||
| 80-88 Jephson St | Brisbane - fringe | 19 | ||||
| 78 Waterloo Rd | Macquarie Park | 71 | ||||
| 23 High St | Brisbane - fringe | 3 | ||||
| 60-66 Waterloo Rd | Macquarie Park | 66 | ||||
| 601 Pacific Hwy | St Leonards | 67 | 27-29 High St | Brisbane - fringe | 4 | |
| 77 Pacific Hwy | North Sydney | 56 | 26 | |||
| 40 Cameron Ave | Canberra | 23 | ||||
| Total | 1,530 | |||||
| 1,122 |
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
- Piccadilly Court separately classified as B-Grade; Classifications as per Stockland Property Portfolio which may not reflect technical grading
6
Sydney CBD: Expect slight improvement until new supply comes online
The Market
Overall
- 9% vacancy, likely to remain >8% for at least 3 years
High incentives will remain
Expect limited rent growth
Demand outlook
Reliant on financial & insurance sector – recently impacted by job losses and generally weak demand
Expect companies to continue consolidating and downsizing
Market Forecasts – Sydney CBD[1 ]
| 3 Yr. Forecast | Historical Avg. (2001-12) |
|
|---|---|---|
| Net Supply Increase (sqm) | 59,105 | 42,660 |
| Net Absorption (sqm) | 40,000 | 20,386 |
| Total Vacancy | 9.98% | 8.57% |
| Prime Gross Effective Rent ($/sqm) |
$626 | $568 |
| Prime Gross Effective Rental Growth (%) |
3.1% | 1.1% |
| Incentives2 | 28.06% | 20.65% |
Supply outlook
Limited new supply in next 2 years; 64% of supply currently under-construction is pre-committed
Barangaroo South development will add another 5% to Sydney stock. Level of impact will depend on mid-term demand; a real risk if business confidence does not pick up
Stockland’s Exposure
23% of SGP office portfolio
Prime assets well located with affordable rent
Lease expiries extend past Barangaroo being commissioned
| WALE | Vacancy | IRR | Cap Rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 135 King St3 | 4.7 years | 12% | 10.20% | 7.30% |
| Piccadilly Complex3 | 3.8 years | 4% | 9.25%4 | 7.25 - 8.25% |
-
Jones Lang LaSalle Research
-
Incentives have been calculated on 10 year lease terms 3. As at December 2012
-
Blended IRR
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
7
North Sydney & St Leonards: will remain weak
The Market
Overall
Relatively small markets, attracting a select pool of tenants Sub-lease vacancy increased slightly in last six months Relatively low rents and high incentives
Demand outlook
Demand expected to be weak over the short term
Supply outlook
No supply currently under construction
Market Forecasts – North Sydney[1 ]
| 3 Yr. Forecast | Historical Avg. (2001-12) |
|
|---|---|---|
| Net Supply Increase (sqm) | -3,315 | 2,769 |
| Net Absorption (sqm) | -833 | -1,714 |
| Total Vacancy | 6.4% | 10.0% |
| Prime Gross Effective Rent ($/sqm) |
$626 | $568 |
| Prime Gross Effective Rental Growth (%) |
3.1% | 1.1% |
| Incentives2 | 25.3% | 23.2% |
120,000 sqm of new supply has been approved but pending pre-commitments
Stockland’s Exposure
8% of SGP office portfolio
601 Pacific Hwy is comparatively the better asset; A grade and well located; being upgraded
-
Jones Lang LaSalle Research
-
Incentives have been calculated on 10 year lease terms 3. As at December 2012
| **North Sydney & St Leonards3 ** | WALE | Vacancy | IRR | Cap Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 601 Pacific Hwy, St Leonards | 3.7 years | 2% | 10.1% | 8.50% |
| 77 Pacific Hwy, North Sydney | 2.9 years | 6% | 9.0% | 8.25% |
| 110 Walker St, North Sydney | 3.9 years | 21% | 9.6% | 8.75% |
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
8
Macquarie Park: potential new supply will restrict rental growth
The Market
Stockland’s Exposure
Overall
Most popular with companies who want corporate headquarters or campus style accommodation
Location close to public transport is important
Demand outlook
28% of SGP office portfolio
Higher cash yields
Good quality assets, located close to new train stations and amenities such as Macquarie Shopping Centre
Demand has fallen as tenants downsize and surrender space
Total vacancy of 4.9% is lower than other Sydney submarkets
Supply outlook
22,000 sqm stock currently under-construction, with 85% pre-committed
A lot of land available for development, including 60,000 sqm with approved plans
Land available for future development
| **Macquarie Park & North Ryde1 ** | WALE | Vacancy | IRR | Cap Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Triniti Business Campus | 3.5 years | - | 8.5% | 7.50% |
| Optus Centre | 9.3 years | - | 9.1% | 7.50% |
| 60-66 Waterloo Road | 1.9 years | - | 10.2% | 8.50 – 9.25% |
| 16 Giffnock Avenue | 3.5 years | 10% | 9.3% | 8.75% |
| Macquarie Technology Park | 2.2 years | 7% | 11.9% | 8.50 – 9.25% |
| 78 Waterloo Road | 6.4 years | - | 9.1% | 7.75% |
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
- As at December 2012
9
Brisbane CBD: has weakened, but shouldn’t deteriorate much further
The Market
Market Forecasts – Brisbane CBD[1 ]
Overall
Expect performance in 2013 to be weak as a result of recent new supply, government job cuts and a slow down in the growth of the resources sector
High incentives and vacancy likely to remain
Demand outlook
Risks remain around the stability and size of the public sector
Demand from resources-related companies expected to stabilise
Supply outlook
100% of supply currently under-construction is precommitted
Minimal new supply expected over the short term
Supply is expected to pick up from 2016 with forecast 286,000 sqm of planned new office space
| 3 Yr. Forecast | Historical Avg. (2001-12) |
|
|---|---|---|
| Net Supply Increase (sqm) | 7,941 | 46,185 |
| Net Absorption (sqm) | 6,667 | 37,850 |
| Total Vacancy | 10.93% | 5.57% |
| Prime Gross Effective Rent ($/sqm) |
$473 | $452 |
| Prime Gross Effective Rental Growth (%) |
2.50% | 5.38% |
| Incentives2 | 26.9% | 17.7% |
Stockland’s Exposure
14% of SGP office portfolio
Waterfront Place[3] (50%)
Premium grade
WALE: 5.9 years Vacancy: 6% Cap Rate: 7.50%
IRR: 9.4% (excluding development opportunity)
Eagle St Pier (adjacent) significant development opportunity
-
Jones Lang LaSalle Research
-
Incentives have been calculated on 10 year lease terms 3. As at December 2012
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
10
Perth CBD: currently the strongest office market
The Market
Market Forecasts – Perth CBD[1 ]
Perth CBD
Resources sector is the predominant driver of growth; but this makes it a volatile market
Continues to have the lowest vacancy rates, lowest incentives and the highest prime gross effective rents of all CBD markets
Demand outlook
Mining investments should continue to support the office market despite the recent slow down
Medium term demand depends on next round of mining investments
Supply outlook
91% of supply currently under-construction is precommitted
Limited new supply over the next 2 years
| 3 Yr. Forecast | Historical Avg. (2001-12) |
|
|---|---|---|
| Net Supply Increase (sqm) | 36,431 | 29,168 |
| Net Absorption (sqm) | 23,333 | 29,530 |
| Total Vacancy | 5.75% | 6.52% |
| Prime Gross Effective Rent ($/sqm) |
$851 | $559 |
| Prime Gross Effective Rental Growth (%) |
2.24% | 9.94% |
| Incentives2 | 7.8% | 11.6% |
Stockland’s Exposure
9% of SGP office portfolio
Durack Centre[3] (2 Victoria Ave & 263 Adelaide Tce)
A grade
Situated at the eastern end of the CBD
WALE: 5 years Vacancy: 0% Cap Rate: 8.75% IRR: 12.3%
-
Jones Lang LaSalle Research
-
Incentives have been calculated on 10 year lease terms 3. As at December 2012
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
11
Value add opportunities in our current Office portfolio
| Asset | Location | Opportunity |
|---|---|---|
| Waterfront Place & Eagle St Pier (JV with Future Fund) |
Brisbane, Qld | Secure approvals to redevelop Eagle Street Pier. Current carrying value $32m1; ~130,000sqm GLA of floorspace in the future |
| Durack Centre and 2 Victoria Ave | Perth, WA | Obtain freehold title / extend ground lease |
| “Lighthouse” land next to Triniti Business Park | North Ryde, NSW | Secure pre-commitment and develop the site |
| 135 King St & Glasshouse | Sydney, NSW | Complete office leasing, refurbish and remix retail |
| Macquarie Technology Centre | North Ryde, NSW | Establish the feasibility of replacing existing buildings with new, larger buildings |
| Toowong (office and retail assets) | Brisbane, Qld | Mixed use redevelopment |
| Garden Square | Mount Gravatt, Qld | Develop additional 20,000 sqm of office space, (DA approved); subject to pre- commit |
| Piccadilly Tower, Court & Retail | Sydney, NSW | Complete upgrade and leasing |
| 601 Pacific Highway | St Leonards, NSW | Complete upgrade and leasing |
| 40 Cameron Avenue | Belconnen, ACT | Complete major refurbishment |
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
- Full 100% share
12
Overall summary
Grow commercial property through organic development and acquisition
Retail
Execute our strategy of being a leader in key regional markets in Australia, and having a clear point of difference in metropolitan areas
Maintain top four position in the listed REIT retail property market
Grow via our accretive development pipeline, active asset and leasing management and strategic acquisitions where we can add value and meet our investment hurdles
Office
Retain tactical asset allocation, adding value to several key assets and down weight over time
Asset recycling
In Retail and Office, pursue more joint-venturing and capital partnering to contribute the accretive Retail development pipeline and overall Group capital management
Industrial
Add value to existing portfolio through organic development, building upgrades, and disciplined asset management and leasing
Complete the internal resourcing to strongly position us in the future greenfield design and construct pipeline, servicing our retailer and industrial logistics clients
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
13
==> picture [59 x 59] intentionally omitted <==
Residential
==> picture [772 x 390] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
Vale, WA
----- End of picture text -----
Executive summary
Operational update
Leading indicators are showing signs of improvement, however the housing market remains challenging
Residential lot volumes have improved recently, particularly in WA, however margins remain under pressure
The significant decline in profitability over time, has been due to the decline of the housing market, growing competition, shifting settlement volumes to less profitable projects and a change to capitalised interest allocation
Additional impairment on previously impaired projects of $49m reflecting further analysis and in some instances divestment negotiations. A material amount of this additional impairment relates to a provision regarding a court appeal, where we have assumed the worst outcome
Strategy update
Fundamentals continue to support our strategy to deliver large masterplanned communities, geographically dispersed in key growth corridors
We will also expand our participation in medium density development organically, leveraging existing assets and skillsets
We will focus on three key areas to enhance the business performance
Reshape the portfolio: launch new projects; recycle capital from poor performing projects
Improve cost efficiency: reduce cost base through strategic procurement; rationalise and centralise overheads
Drive revenue growth: deliver community outcomes; expand target market
We are confident in returning Residential Communities EBIT margins to ~23-25% from FY16 onwards
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
1
Improved volumes in 3Q13 but margins remain subdued
3Q13 achieved strongest net deposits since 1Q11
Strong leads and net deposits primarily driven by WA
WA performing well (47% of 3Q13 net deposits)
Vic improving from low point in 1Q13 but still impacted by competitor rebating
Qld lead indicators suggest confidence is returning, but varies between submarkets
Improving NSW metropolitan market supports FY14 and FY15 performance with launch of new projects (East Leppington 2H14 and Marsden Park FY15)
==> picture [319 x 110] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
8,035 8,145 Leads
7,598 8000
6,798 6,294
6,284
1,757 6000
254 1,401 Net deposits
159 1,125 1,127 1,082 1,163 100 NSW 4000
574 228 170 142 145 657
295 334 393 437 WA
2000
770 362 334 386 330 438 Qld
240 289 161 251 206 Vic 0
1Q11 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13
----- End of picture text -----
Executing disposal of non core assets - one lifestyle project disposed 3Q13 (Warriewood, NSW)
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
2
EBIT margins impacted by soft market, competition and project mix
Market
Cause: Prolonged market softness Effect: Revenue growth not able to offset cost inflation More conservative escalation rates
Lower forecast sales rates
Competition
Cause: Increasing competition
Effect: Greater rebating to respond to competitor pricing in selected markets
Mix Shift
Cause: Market dynamics and shift to less profitable projects
Effect: A smaller proportion of lots settled from our higher margin projects and increased proportion from lower margin projects
Impact: ~(4)% EBIT (1H12 vs. 1H13)
Impact: ~(4)% EBIT (1H12 vs. 1H13)
Moving average Residential sales Number of active projects per state (Moving average #) In SGP Corridors (# in a quarter)
Lots settled by location (lots)
==> picture [618 x 137] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
7,000 200 FY09 to FY13 2,209
180 Increase 2,085
6,000 All States 160 QLD +96% 463 606 WA
5,000 Mortgage Rate Increase 140 WA +91%
120
4,000 VIC +65% 463 493 Vic
100
NSW +54%
3,000 Excl. WA 80
2,000 Mortgage Rate Decrease Market not responding to interest rate cuts as 60 686 Qld
680
in the past 40
1,000
20 422 NSW
210
0 0
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2009 2010 2011 2012 1H12 Settled 1H13 Settled
Excl Townsville & Rockhampton
----- End of picture text -----
Source: RBA, Charter Keck Cramer, Stockland Research
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
3
Leading indicators trending positively
Price growth turning slightly positive Capital city house prices – Annual Growth
==> picture [312 x 96] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
50%
40%
30%
20% WA
10% NSW
0% Vic
-10% Qld
-20%
2003 2006 2009 2012
Growth(%)
Rolling Annual
----- End of picture text -----
Rental markets remain tight Rental Vacancy Rates
Loans for new dwellings trending up slights
Housing Finance for New Dwellings - Monthly
==> picture [334 x 95] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
12,000
10,000
8,000
Purchase
6,000
4,000
Construction
2,000
0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
----- End of picture text -----
Affordability improving Mortgage repayments as % of disposable income
==> picture [305 x 116] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
4.5%
4.0%
3.5%
3.0%
Melbourne
2.5%
2.0%
Brisbane
1.5% NSW
1.0% Perth
0.5%
0.0%
2010 2011 2012 2013
----- End of picture text -----
==> picture [682 x 136] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
60%
Less
4.0%
affordable
3.5% 50%
3.0% 40% NSW
Melbourne
2.5% Australia
30% Melbourne
2.0%
Brisbane Brisbane
1.5% NSW 20% More Perth
1.0% Perth affordable
10%
0.5%
0.0% 0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011
Source: ABS, RBA, APM, SQM Research, Stockland Research
----- End of picture text -----
4
Population growth, particularly overseas migration, underpins demand for new dwellings
Population growth remains strong
ABS forecast population growth of 330,000 p.a.
(‘000)
==> picture [275 x 196] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150 Net Overseas Migration (NOM)
100 Net Natural Increase
50
0
1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010
----- End of picture text -----
- Includes occupied and unoccupied dwellings and knock-down rebuilds Source: ABS, Stockland research
~180,000 net overseas migration
~150,000 national increase
Household formation of 2.56 persons per household equates to annual long run dwelling demand of ~150,000[1 ]
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
5
An increasing number of Gen Ys, who are planning children or have children, aspire to own a detached house
National Stockland deposits by generation[1 ]
Forecast Population Change by Age, 2011 to 2021 (‘000 people)
==> picture [653 x 192] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
2% 2% 2%
Builders 500 Gen Y will reach
wealth accumulation
24% 25% 20% Baby Boomers and family building stage Baby Boomers
400 will reach
retirement age
23% Gen X & consider downsizing
25% 24% 300
Gen X
200
55% Gen Y
49% 49%
100
-
2010 2011 2012
(n = 850) (n = 1231) (n = 1740)
----- End of picture text -----
- This is based on a sample of ~30% of Stockland customers who put down a deposit Source: Pulse survey data Jan 2010 - Dec 2012, (n= 3,821), Colmar Brunton; ABS series B population forecast
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
6
The outer suburbs will remain a significant market in the future, due to land availability and affordability
Average annual growth in occupied dwellings by location (2006-11)
==> picture [231 x 183] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
32k
24% 28k
26k
Rest of 39% 19k
State
55%
45% 28%
Outer 30%
30% 51%
18%
Middle 20%
13% 15%
Inner 11% 13% 2% 6%
NSW VIC QLD WA
----- End of picture text -----
Source: ABS, Stockland Research, State of Australian Cities 2012
Real house price by distance from CBD
==> picture [297 x 256] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
Sydney
1,500
1,200 Affordability level of ~$380K
is >35km from CBD
900
600
300 2009-10
0 1986-87 Affordability seen as a key
driver of outer suburbs
0 10 20 30 40 50
Distance from CBD (km)
Melbourne
1,500
Affordability level of ~$350K
1,200 is >30km from CBD
900
600
300 2009-10
1980-81
0
0 10 20 30 40 50
Distance from CBD (km)
$’000
$’000
----- End of picture text -----
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
7
Our projects are located in key population growth areas
Population change between 2006-11
==> picture [452 x 275] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
MELBOURNE Lockerbie SYDNEY
Eucalypt Marsden Park
Mernda Village
Highlands
Allura
Davis Road
East Leppington
Selandra Rise
Arbourlea
Macarthur Gardens
BRISBANE PERTH
Caloundra
Amberton
Stone Ridge
Vale
North Lakes Corimbia
Freshwater
New Haven
Sovereign Pocket
Setters Hill
Augustine Heights
Ormeau Ridge
----- End of picture text -----
Source: ABS, .idplacemaker. Population growth by localities have been represented by a sliding colour scale, with the darker shades indicating higher population growth, and lighter shades indicating lower growth
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
8
Young family growth in our corridors
New Births: 0 to 4 Year change between 2006-11
==> picture [186 x 275] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
MELBOURNE Lockerbie
Eucalypt
Highlands Mernda Village
Allura
Davis Road
Selandra Rise
Arbourlea
BRISBANE
Caloundra
Stone Ridge
North Lakes
Freshwater
Sovereign Pocket
Augustine Heights
Ormeau Ridge
----- End of picture text -----
==> picture [186 x 275] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
SYDNEY Marsden Park
East Leppington
Macarthur Gardens
PERTH
Amberton
Vale
Corimbia
New Haven
Setters Hill
----- End of picture text -----
Source: ABS, .idplacemaker. Increases in population between 0-4 years have been represented by a sliding colour scale, with the darker shades indicating higher growth, and lighter shades indicating lower growth
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
9
Disciplined execution of our strategic criteria delivers sound returns
Clear strategic criteria since 2009
Core projects deliver superior returns
==> picture [682 x 283] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
Focused on geographic diversity Masterplanned
Growth corridor strategy – attractive demand/supply 9% communities
6%
Wyndham (Vic) / Allura (Vic) / Vale (WA)
10%
Scale to leverage returns and stakeholder engagement
Focus on larger masterplanned communities Communities
Certainty obtained through infrastructure agreement and cost efficiency <1,500 lots
North Shore (Qld) / North Lakes (Qld) / Highlands (Vic)
Buy on capital efficient terms – now ~29% of inventory FY10 FY11 FY12
Reduce funds employed and reduce risk
Lockerbie (Vic) / East Leppington (NSW)
Bring projects to market quickly
Minimise interest and lower funds employed Strategic
East Leppington (NSW) / Marsden Park (NSW) / Allura (Vic) 9% corridor
Broadening product offering to expand market reach 14% 10%
Focus on affordability and innovation, including medium density
e.g. Mode (Qld) / Bower Series (Qld) / Waterside Terraces (NSW) Non strategic
corridor
FY10 FY11 FY12
EBIT margin (%)
EBIT margin (%)
----- End of picture text -----
10
Current strategic initiatives focus on improving performance
Residential Communities EBIT margin improves from FY16 onwards
We are confident in returning EBIT margins to ~23-25% from FY16 onwards
This will be achieved through the following initiatives
==> picture [259 x 174] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
25% ~23-25%
~3-4%
~18% ~2-3%
FY12 Current Reshaping Improving Target
Portfolio Efficiency
----- End of picture text -----
1. Reshaping the portfolio
Accelerate launch of new projects to create greater geographic diversity and scale
Actively managing portfolio to improve returns Right sizing the land bank
2. Improving efficiency
Continue to manage costs
3. Delivering revenue growth
Increase revenue by creating a better community value proposition that drives higher customer referrals Broaden market reach through medium density offering
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
11
1 Reshaping the portfolio
Accelerate launch of new projects to improve geographic diversity and scale
The disciplined execution of our growth corridor strategy since 2009 is improving geographic diversity
The launch of East Leppington and Marsden Park (NSW) during FY14/15 will take advantage of the strong market conditions in metropolitan Sydney
The WA business is now at scale and benefiting from the strong market conditions
FY12 lot sales (by state)
Indicative future lot sales (by state)
==> picture [247 x 85] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
19% 17% 21%
WA NSW 23%
34% 30%
Vic Qld 23% 33%
----- End of picture text -----
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
12
1 Reshaping the portfolio
Actively managing portfolio to improve returns
Capital employed[1]
==> picture [349 x 240] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
Core projects
Delivering 28 Active projects [2]
current $1.3b
earnings ~26,000 Lots
Bring to 5 New Launch projects
Market $0.2b
FY14/15 ~11,000 Lots
8
Improve
Return 8 Inactive projects [3 ]
Prior to $0.3b [5 ]
~41,000 Lots
Launch
Workout projects
Focus on
7 Impaired develop out projects [4 ]
working
through as -3,000 Lots
soon as
possible $0.4b
15 Impaired disposal [6 ]
~5,000
$2.2b
0 yrs 1 yrs 2 yrs 3 yrs 4 yrs 5 yrs 6 yrs 7 yrs 7+ yrs
----- End of picture text -----
60% of NFE is contributing to current earnings
Accelerate FY14 /15 new launch projects to provide scale, geographic diversity and incremental margin
Prior to launch, improve returns for inactive projects with below target returns
Reduce upfront infrastructure costs Reduce development costs
Caloundra South (Qld) IRR around 10% due to upfront infrastructure requirements. Working with stakeholders to improve return profile One impaired develop out project completed 2H13. Three further projects will complete FY14/15
Executing disposal of non core assets. One lifestyle project under contract for disposal 2H13
-
Based on net funds employed as at February 2013 2. Excludes five active projects 99% complete 3. One long term project disposed in 2H13 4. One impaired develop out project completed in 2H13
-
Caloundra is ~$0.2bn capital employed and ~20,000 dwellings 6. Includes disposal of industrial land and excludes apartments
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
13
1 Reshaping the portfolio
Right sizing the land bank for future growth
Consistent settlements from existing land bank
==> picture [315 x 196] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
86,000
5,000
31,000 [1]
30,000 [2 ]
51,000
Lockerbie
& Caloundra 30,000
55,000
Other projects 21,000
Dec 2012 remaining lots Disposal projects Trading to end of FY18 Jun 2018 Remaining
Lots
----- End of picture text -----
- Caloundra South is ~20,000 dwellings 2. Includes 2H13 lot settlements. Assumes full pipeline launched
Disposal of workout projects is forecast to be largely complete by FY16
Existing land bank delivers 5,000-6,000 settlements per annum
By FY18, we will have significantly reduced the existing land bank with the exception of Lockerbie and Caloundra South
We will target acquisitions over the next three years, which meet our strategic criteria of scale, within growth corridors and on capital efficient terms to maintain sustainable volumes from FY18 onwards
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
~~21~~
14
2 Improve efficiency
Cost management will deliver sustainable margin improvement
Average annual development expenditure ~$600m
Leverage scale and strategic procurement packaging to reduce development costs per lot
Negotiate national agreements with key vendors for volume discounts – target top 20 vendors representing 60% of development costs
Direct arrangement with vendors where cutting out the middle man produces true cost savings
Leverage group project management expertise for tighter control over costs
==> picture [240 x 95] intentionally omitted <==
==> picture [237 x 7] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
----- End of picture text -----
Improve upfront value management through structured peer review process
Cost efficiency initiatives
==> picture [682 x 117] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
Rationalise: operating structure 1,017
Centralise: human resources, finance, marketing
Process: streamlining decision making tools
357
170 Devex $M
78 64 20 # of vendors
Below $1m $1m to $10m $10m to $50m
----- End of picture text -----
15
3 Driving revenue growth
Leveraging our strong community value proposition
Importance
==> picture [152 x 94] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
Community
27% Design Elements
Community
26%
Perceptions
----- End of picture text -----
20% of all new leads are referred. These leads convert at three times the rate of a non referred lead. There is a strong link between satisfaction and referral
Our proprietary liveability[1] study of over 1,700 residents has enabled the identification of the specific community elements that contribute the most to higher customer satisfaction (or liveability)
By focusing our development and community creation activities on the most important elements, we can increase satisfaction, drive greater referral rates and grow margins over time
General House 20% and Land Elements
==> picture [21 x 70] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
16%
11%
----- End of picture text -----
==> picture [59 x 15] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
Personal
Circumstances
----- End of picture text -----
==> picture [38 x 8] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
My Home
----- End of picture text -----
Liveability survey of over 1,700 residents to understand the community factors that contribute most to higher satisfaction
Majority of customer satisfaction in their community comes from factors other than people’s own home
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
16
3 Driving revenue growth
Medium density is growing and is supported by key stakeholders
ABS Completions: New Medium Density & Apartments (Rolling annual average)
Government planning policies support higher density development
==> picture [290 x 208] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
CAGR 2.5%pa 1985-2012 versus -0.5%pa for detached housing
10,000
1985 1986 1987 1988 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 2000 2001 2002 2003 2005 2006 2007 2008 2010 2011 2012
----- End of picture text -----
NSW, Victorian and Queensland State Governments each have a target that ~50% of all new dwellings will be infill
In addition, state and local government are encouraging higher density development in middle and outer suburbs
==> picture [205 x 135] intentionally omitted <==
Note: Dotted line represents the trend line. Completions are for private dwellings only Source: ABS dwelling completions. It includes only new dwellings, which are defined as building activity which will result in the creation of a building which previously did not exist. This number excludes alterations, additions and conversions. It includes knock down-rebuilds
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
17
3 Driving revenue growth
Stockland has relevant and recent medium density experience
| Mernda | Willows | Arilla | Essence | Riverwalk | Waterside | Bower Series | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business | Retirement Living |
Retirement Living |
Retirement Living |
Residential | Residential | Residential | Residential |
| Product | Medium density |
Apartments & medium density |
Apartments & medium density |
Townhouses & detached houses |
Attached & detached houses |
Medium density |
Medium density |
| Location | Mernda, Vic | Winston Hills, NSW |
South Morang, Vic |
Maribyrnong, Vic |
Ermington, NSW |
Penrith, NSW | Bells Reach, Qld |
| Year completed |
2013 | 2013 | 2014 | 2008 | 2010 | 2013 | 2013 |
| No. of dwelling |
272 | 76 | 200 | 111 | 126 | 85 | 11 |
| Density (dwellings/ha) |
~26 | ~35 | ~25 | ~26 | ~22 | ~80 ex common areas |
~100 ex common areas |
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
18
3 Driving revenue growth
Medium density development to broaden reach
| Medium density | Low to mid rise apartments | |
|---|---|---|
| 25-50 dwellings/ha | 40-70 dwellings/ha | |
| Indicative density | ||
| Description | Semi-detached and attached houses Includes townhouses, terraces and over-unders |
Apartment buildings up to six storeys |
| How Stockland participates |
Core Retirement Living product Piloted a number of Residential projects on greenfield and infill sites Partner with builders to deliver; Stockland is a not a builder |
Incorporated into a number of Retirement Living developments Have previously delivered some stand-alone apartments projects |
| Examples | Arilla & Willows (retirement) Essence & Riverwalk (infill) Waterside & Bower (greenfield) |
Arilla (retirement) Gowanbrae (retirement) Prince Henry |
| Stockland volumes FY08-FY12 |
~940 new independent living units ~160 residential lots |
~100 new independent living apartments ~680 residential apartments |
We will initially expand our participation in medium density organically, leveraging existing assets and skillsets
Selectively develop land from existing land bank
Leverage capabilities in existing team
Leverage existing builder partnerships
Opportunistically acquire medium density sites based on favourable terms and on appropriate risk-adjusted return metrics
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
19
Summary
Key leading indicators are showing signs of improvement and the established housing market is improving. Although land market remains challenging as it generally lags established by ~6 months
Profitability continues to be impacted by impaired projects, capitalised interest changes and soft market conditions
Fundamentals continue to support our strategy to deliver large masterplanned communities, geographically dispersed in key growth corridors
Residential performance will improve in coming years with the launch of new projects, disposal of non-core assets, reduction in cost base and delivering community outcomes in our larger masterplanned communities
We will expand our participation in medium density organically, leveraging existing assets and skillsets
We are confident in returning residential communities EBIT margins to ~23-25% from FY16 onwards
==> picture [190 x 127] intentionally omitted <==
==> picture [190 x 126] intentionally omitted <==
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
20
Retirement Livin g
==> picture [59 x 59] intentionally omitted <==
==> picture [772 x 390] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
Fig Tree Village, Qld
----- End of picture text -----
Executive summary
Retirement Living is on track for modest growth in operating profit relative to last year despite challenging market conditions
The soft residential established market has impacted customers’ ability to sell their homes to fund their entry into a village and has therefore elevated cancellations
Heading into FY14, we see volume growth coming back as the established housing markets appear to be in the early stages of recovery
Our strategy remains to develop villages organically to enhance scale and to deliver a customer experience which drives high levels of satisfaction, all at a sustainable level of cost
Current strategic initiatives focus on continuing to improve return on assets (RoA)
Emphasis is on driving volume growth, further reducing overheads and streamlining processes
We are targeting an RoA of 6.5% by FY15 and exceeding 8% within the following 2 years
The long run fundamentals of Retirement Living remain compelling
We continue to explore options for accelerating these returns
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
1
3Q13 trading update: strong enquiries, solid reservations and reducing cancellations
Quarterly reservations
High enquiry levels indicative of underlying demand
Autumn 2013 national campaign enquiries achieved 2x target
However, over the last 18 months, many customers have had difficulty selling their home, driving post-reservation cancellation rates to highest levels in several years
Stockland now providing low-cost purchase assistance to mitigate cancellation risk
Solid reservation performance
3Q13 campaign did not offer $10k rebate of previous campaigns, impacting reservation rate
However, post-campaign cancellation rate is materially lower than previous campaigns - indicating reservations without rebate are of higher quality
==> picture [293 x 168] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
268
248
210
100
96
63 New
villages
114
108
168 51
152 61 147 Established
villages
63
47
3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13
----- End of picture text -----
Reservation levels have remained solid since campaign ended
Lead indicators appear to be pointing to an emerging recovery in the established housing markets
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
2
Lead indicators suggest the early stages of a market recovery
==> picture [663 x 139] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
Consumer Sentiment Capital City Median House Prices
160 25%
140 Time to Buy a 20%
Dwelling Index
120 Long term Dwelling Index 15%
Consumer Rolling
100 Sentiment Annual
Long term 10% Growth
Sentiment
80 Average 5%
60 Quarterly
0% growth
1993 1994 1996 1997 1999 2000 2002 2003 2005 2006 2008 2009 2011 2012
400
2006 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 -5%
----- End of picture text -----
==> picture [662 x 126] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
Days on Market (Established Houses) Capital City Auction Clearance Rates
90 80%
80
Average days 70%
70 on market 60% Clearance
60 rates
50%
50
40%
40
30%
30
20 20%
10 10%
0 0%
2005 2006 2008 2009 2011 2012 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
----- End of picture text -----
Sources: Westpac – Melbourne University Survey of Consumer Sentiment, RPData/Rismark, APM, SQM Research, Stockland Research
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
3
Strong long run fundamentals
Population is aging
Australian population aged 65 or older
(Millions of people)
Over-65s now 14% of the population, will be 20% by 2030
Current penetration of Retirement Living villages ~ 5%
Overseas penetration benchmarks higher (>10% in US)
Strong growth in demand, currently under-supplied
At 5% continued penetration, the implied demand for new supply is ~100,000 units over 20 years (5,000p.a. average) Sector currently supplying less than half this level
Customer value proposition is proven
The Loan/Lease/DMF model is well accepted and is an affordability solution relative to renting
==> picture [199 x 75] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
6.7m
5.6m
4.2m
3.0m
2010 2020 2030 2040
----- End of picture text -----
Demand for retirement units
(Thousands of units required to meet demand)
Stockland’s DMFs are competitive[1 ]
==> picture [256 x 59] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
129 At 8% take up [2 ]
108
56 Baseline demand at
115 162 213 253 current 5% take up
2010 2020 2030 2040
----- End of picture text -----
High levels of resident satisfaction (90% of Stockland residents rate their overall satisfaction at 7/10 or higher)
Governments are supportive of the sector
Economic and social benefits are increasingly being recognised
- Stockland’s current standard DMF contract: 8% of entry price in year one, followed by 3% of entry price per annum of residency up to a maximum of 35%; 50-50 share of capital gain or loss 2. Potential national penetration by 2025 estimated by the RVA in its submission to the Productivity Commission enquiry “Caring for Older Australians”, August 2011
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
4
Our strategy: happy, full villages - and more of them
Our strategy is to achieve happy, full villages (and more of them) by delivering older Australians a better way to live
Targeting middle market socio-economic segment with affordable products and services
Organic growth, with improving returns being driven by increasing scale and ongoing improvement in processes, products, services and culture
Maintaining relevance as customers’ needs evolve over time
Built-form home and community facilities
Service platform Financial solutions
Raising overall RoA to 6.5% by FY15 and exceeding 8% within the following 2 years
Undertake initiatives focused on volume growth and cost containment without being dependent on price growth
==> picture [205 x 264] intentionally omitted <==
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
5
Current strategic initiatives focus on improving returns
Throughout the business
==> picture [610 x 260] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
1 Continuing to manage costs - centralisation and streamlining
2 Differentiated customer experience
Choose Acquire Masterplan Build Initial Resident makes ingoing
Corridors Land & Design ‘Sale’ contribution and moves in
Resident enjoys
lifestyle
Development
3 Continued growth in development volumes - a key driver of RoA improvement Platform
Resident is
4 Continuing to evolve our product – project home builder partnerships re-paid Resident
& DMF Village moves out
5 Increased use of medium density and low rise apartment product crystallised Management
Services
Established
Unit ‘re-sold’ Unit is refurbished /
6 Streamlined and more efficient unit turnarounds - faster, less expensive upgraded as needed
7 Building the service platform with specialist providers - better value proposition
8 Professionalisation and up-skilling - enhanced customer experience and commerciality
----- End of picture text -----
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
6
1 Cost management
Ongoing cost management will continue to support RoA
Return on Assets[1 ]
==> picture [306 x 195] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
Scale
12%
4%
Centralisation
Gross
8% ~8%
Yield
~4%
Overheads 7% Marketing
8% strategy
~4%
Net RoA
1%
FY09 Current Target
----- End of picture text -----
Holding costs flat in real terms while expanding volumes will bring overheads down from 12% of revenue in FY13 to 8% in FY18
Increased centralisation of functions into Corporate Centre to drive efficiency
Finance Human Resources Elements of Marketing
Increased emphasis on conversion, reduced investment in lead generation will reduce marketing spend by c25% in FY14
What is meant by ‘overheads’
Salary & wages
Includes Marketing, Sales (incl commissions), Area and Regional Operations, Asset Management, Development, Finance, Legal/Conveyancing, HR
Excludes village employees recharged to residents through monthly levies (eg Village Managers, Maintenance, local admin)
External spend on marketing, professional fees (eg valuations), occupancy, depreciation, travel, general expenses
Head office recharges for shared services (IT, A/P, Finance, Payroll etc)
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
- Historical data re-stated to reflect current accounting treatment
7
2 Customer experience
Improving the end-to-end customer experience supports occupancy and price-point objectives
Example #1: Entry Experience
Improved Conversion
High cancellation rate drives added cost per settlement as on average each settlement has to be “made” more than once
A leading cause of cancellations is that the move to the village is seen as overwhelmingly hard
Solution: make it easier by providing more information, advice and guidance via Property Relocation and Consultation Service – free of charge to customer (cost to Stockland ~$200-300)
Achievements to date
Reservation package introduced February 2013
Property and Relocation Consultant partners engaged nationally
Strong feedback from customers and sales team as to efficacy of the service in reducing stress
Cancellation rates for customers using the service halved during the pilot period
==> picture [145 x 72] intentionally omitted <==
Example #2: Residency Experience
Internalising Villages
Residents can be exposed to risks when self-managing villages, including: regulatory, compliance, economic risk; residents enter village to retire, not run the village
Stockland also exposed to inefficiencies and inconsistencies, brand risk and resident wellbeing issues through stress and administrative workload
Solution : Where Association-managed, internalise village management to leverage Stockland experience, scale economies, common processes
Achievements to date
During FY13, six Association-managed villages have agreed to become managed by Stockland – ie ‘internalise’ (five Vic, one Qld)
Four villages have undergone successful trial periods
Expect 75% of all portfolio villages to be Stockland-managed by end FY13
==> picture [65 x 66] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
Managed
----- End of picture text -----
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
8
3 Delivering the pipeline
Delivering the development pipeline is a major contributor to RoA improvement
Development returns
Key Drivers of Improvement in Return on Asset (RoA)[1 ]
Pre-overhead margins averaging ~18-19% (excluding DMF’s)
Expect these to remain stable as we move to project home builder product and lock down construction costs early in projects
Development overheads historically high as % of revenue
Sub-scale
Costs associated with bringing pipeline projects to market before they generate revenues
Post-overhead operating profit margin exceeded break-even point in FY12
Current 3-year unlevered post-overhead IRR on the development business is c18%pa over FY13-15 (excluding DMF’s created)
Operating profit margin highly leveraged to volume
Development platform is well established; overhead growth in near term limited to CPI or less
Growth in volumes a key driver of overall RoA
==> picture [282 x 157] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
Current Development Turnover Price Reinvestment Inflation Target
RoA Volume Rate 2 & Margin Capex RoA
----- End of picture text -----
-
Not to exact scale
-
Turnover rate will increase with village maturity; expecting this to trend towards 8% over the next five years
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
9
Strong project pipeline should drive development volume growth by over 15%pa
3 Delivering the pipeline
| State | Project | Yet to come online |
Anticipated Settlements | Anticipated Settlements | Anticipated Settlements | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY13 | FY14 | FY15 | FY16 | FY17+ | |||
| Active Developments | |||||||
| VIC | Highlands | 118 | |||||
| VIC | Arilla | 81 | |||||
| VIC | Tarneit Skies | 29 | |||||
| VIC | Selandra Rise | 214 | |||||
| VIC | Mernda | 272 | |||||
| VIC | Gowanbrae | 2 | |||||
| QLD | Fig Tree | 99 | |||||
| QLD | North Lakes | 40 | |||||
| QLD | Farrington Grove | 120 | |||||
| NSW | Waratah Highlands | 82 | |||||
| NSW | The Willows | 37 | |||||
| NSW | Macarthur Gardens | 180 | |||||
| WA | Affinity | 216 | |||||
| Sub-total | 1,490 | ||||||
| Development Pipeline | |||||||
| VIC | Highlands Extension | 200 | |||||
| VIC | Eucalypt | 270 | |||||
| VIC | Highlands II | 250 | |||||
| VIC | Lockerbie | 250 | |||||
| VIC | Davis Road | 250 | |||||
| QLD | Caloundra | 400 | |||||
| NSW | Lourdes | 10 | |||||
| NSW | Golden Ponds | 50 | |||||
| NSW | Marsden Park | 280 | |||||
| NSW | Cardinal Freeman | 240 | |||||
| NSW | The Cove | 60 | |||||
| NSW | Leppington | 300 | |||||
| WA | Banjup | 250 | |||||
| Sub-total | 2,810 | ||||||
| Total ILUsyet to be released | 4,300 |
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
10
3 Delivering the pipeline
For ageing downsizers, a Stockland Village offers a strong value proposition relative to new house & land
| Typical House and Land |
Retirement Village |
|
|---|---|---|
| Contract | ||
| Single contract, fixed price | | |
| No upsell / up spec pressure | | |
| Deal direct with Stockland | | |
| Warranty by Stockland | | |
| Fit for purpose | | |
| Ready to live in | | |
| No stamp duty | | |
| Easy by Design | ||
| 6-7 Star NATHers rated | | |
| Adaptable housing code | | |
| Elderly friendly lights & taps | | |
| Wide corridors and extra storage | | |
| Security doors and flyscreens | | |
| High ceilings (2550 mm) | | |
| Fence, landscape & driveway | | |
| Window furnishings | | |
Affordable price-points
==> picture [285 x 172] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
Serviced Apartment
Independent Living Unit
<$150k $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 $400 $450 $500 $550 >600k
-200k -250k -300k -350k -400k -450k -500k -550k -600k
Residential Bottom 20% of house Middle 60% of house
benchmarks: prices nationally ($325k) prices nationally ($540k)
----- End of picture text -----
“I don’t need a big house. I have everything in my backyard – bowls, the theatre and a pool table. It feels like an extension of my house.” Noel, Arilla resident
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
11
Continuing to evolve our Development products
4 Evolve development product
From this[1] :
==> picture [517 x 135] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
Community Centres
Large centralised “cookie-cutter” designs
Salon, nurse, podiatrist, doctor rooms
Cavernous Town Hall
Commercial kitchen with subsidised meals & café
Save $ by delaying Community Centre construction
Carport Custom Designs
2 1
94m [2] house 2 1 Architect fees
Cost $150k, revenue $270k, margin $8k (3%) Poor detailing
Higher supervision required by Stockland
Typically 100-150 RFI’s
----- End of picture text -----
Club Houses Intimate meeting places customised to local area Day spa Flexible spaces able to seat most residents Food preparation areas, partnerships for food and café operations Build early and promote strongly Courtyard Project Homes 75m[2] house 2 2 1 1 1 1 Home builder design Cost $120k, revenue $290k, margin $58k (20%) Fit for purpose Display quality Proven details
To this[1] :
- Illustrative only; typical products shown; wide variation in actual products delivered by village and project
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
12
Better, faster, cheaper development outcomes by working closely with project home builder partners
4 Evolve development product
Case Study: Arilla vs Mernda
(Same builder at both villages)
Stockland design: Arilla (Quartz Type N)
==> picture [209 x 9] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
Project home builder design: Mernda (Coastal Type 5)
----- End of picture text -----
==> picture [203 x 108] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
3 Bed, 2 Bath, Laundry & Double LUG
----- End of picture text -----
3 Bed, 2 Bath, Laundry & Double LUG Builder project home at Mernda is 7% bigger, 10% cheaper, has more inclusions and is 10% faster to build
| Arilla | Mernda | Favourable | $19k additional value | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Building area1(sqm) | 178 | 191 | 7% | |||
| Build cost | $187,000 | $168,000 | 10% | |||
| $ / sqm | $1,050 | $880 | 16% | |||
| Buildprogram(days) | 100 | 90 | 10% | |||
| Inclusions | ||||||
| Kitchen stone bench tops | No | Yes | Yes | |||
| Front landscaping | No | Yes | Yes | |||
| Gas solar boosted hot water | No | Yes | Yes | |||
| Covered outdoor room | No | Yes | Yes | |||
| Energy rating | 5 Star | 6 Star | Yes | |||
| Silver level universal housing standard | No | Yes | Yes | |||
| 5.8 star deducted heatingand cooling | No | Yes | Yes |
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
- House, garage, porch and alfresco (if applicable)
13
5 Increased medium density
Medium density product supplements classic villa-style product and offers a strong customer value proposition
==> picture [146 x 115] intentionally omitted <==
==> picture [147 x 117] intentionally omitted <==
The Willows, Winston Hills NSW
- 76 apartments and over-under product Avg 94m[2] internal area
Completion June 2013
- $41m revenue; pre-overhead margin 15%
Avg sale price $541k (76% of local median house price)
Arilla, South Morang Vic
36 apartments
Avg 81m[2 ] internal area
Completion August 2013
- $13m revenue; pre-overhead margin 15%
Avg sale price $355k (83% of local median house price)
==> picture [143 x 246] intentionally omitted <==
Gowanbrae, Gowanbrae Vic
39 apartments
Avg 78m[2 ] internal area
Completed August 2011
$15m revenue; pre-overhead margin 24%
Avg sale price $387k (79% of local median house price)
Medium Density Even less maintenance, less fuss for downsizers Higher level of security Located closer to clubhouse – more convenient Ease of adding extra services as required
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
14
6 Turnaround efficiencies
Streamlined and more cost-efficient asset management processes
Established Business Cycle
==> picture [222 x 156] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
Resident makes ingoing
contribution and moves in
Resident enjoys
lifestyle
Platform
Resident is
re-paid & DMF Management Village moves out Resident
crystallised
Services
----- End of picture text -----
Objectives
Targeting 50% time-out and 20% cost-out of key process steps by FY15 Time reductions will drive up occupancy and drive down vacant unit levies Cost reductions will enhance net turnover margin
Making our processes more scalable
Opportunity to increase speed of turnarounds and upgrade volumes Now seeing ~550+ exits pa
40% requiring reinstatement (carpet, curtains, paint)[1 ]
- 50% requiring upgrade (above plus new kitchen, bathroom)
10% requiring re-configuration (eg remove walls, add pergola) Volumes will increase as villages mature
Now re-designing processes for significant improvement in efficiency Standardising processes and removing re-work loops Eliminating low-value adding process steps
Standardising and re-defining refurbishment and upgrade specifications Reducing number of suppliers, re-negotiating input costs
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
- Paid for by outgoing residents
15
7 Service Platform
Partnering with specialist providers enables customers’ needs to be satisfied without incremental fixed cost or risk to Stockland 7
Strategy
Partnerships already exist within Retirement Living – e.g. Property and Relocation Consultants, Emergency Response Plans
Benefits of a stronger Partnerships Strategy will include improved governance, reduced cost and increased process consistency
Partnerships are defined at the ‘Local’, ‘Regional’ and ‘National’ level
Local: Village maintenance (eg gardening), medical professionals, clubs
Regional: Domestic care (eg cleaning), in-home meal services, clubhouse food & beverage, volunteering services, power and water utilities
National: Insurance, First Responder service, seniors associations, Aged Care providers
Case Study: Careways at Macarthur Gardens
Partnership with not-for-profit community service organisation who are part of Commonwealth Home and Community Care (HACC) program
Operates the community café in the Clubhouse 6 days a week staffed mostly by volunteers
Provides access to fresh and affordable meals and other care and lifestyle services
Enhances affordability and social and intergenerational interaction at the village
Reduces operating overheads
Collateral benefits
Careways have delivered 14,000 hours of quality training
==> picture [299 x 84] intentionally omitted <==
The pilot has enabled 15 local disadvantaged job seekers to transition into paid employment (averaging one/month since starting)
Partnership has facilitated a dozen residents to easily access HACC and privately funded lifestyle and support services
The program is currently being rolled out at three other NSW villages
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
16
8 Professionalisation
Investing in people skills is driving efficiency and resident satisfaction
Example - PAVE: Pathway to Achieving Village Excellence
Why it is important
Annual Residents Voice survey shows correlation between satisfaction with Manager and overall satisfaction with living in village
Also a key driver of referrals
Yet Village Managers come from diverse backgrounds
No standard industry training or accreditation at the individual level
What is PAVE?
Four module in-house designed and delivered course to provide training in the major components of Village Management ensuring a best practice approach to the way we manage our villages
Managing the Finances Managing Stakeholders Managing Self and Team Managing the Assets
Current status
All Village Managers have completed Module 1; Module 2 by end June 2013
All Village Managers will have completed all modules during FY14
Resident Survey Results 2012
==> picture [224 x 129] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
Satisfaction with Manager
Overall Satisfaction
----- End of picture text -----
==> picture [163 x 107] intentionally omitted <==
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
17
Summary
The long run fundamentals of Retirement Living remain compelling despite recent and near-term challenges due to the soft housing market
However, we recognise that current RoA is below an acceptable threshold, despite the improvements of recent years
We see volume growth coming back as the housing markets appear to be in the early stages of recovery
We will continue to actively manage for improving returns
We are confident of reaching an RoA of 6.5% by FY15 and exceeding 8% within the following 2 years
We continue to explore options for accelerating these returns
==> picture [208 x 262] intentionally omitted <==
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==
18
Stockland Corporation Limited ACN 000 181 733
Stockland Trust Management Limited ACN 001 900 741
25th Floor
133 Castlereagh Street SYDNEY NSW 2000
DISCLAIMER OF LIABILITY
While every effort is made to provide accurate and complete information, Stockland does not warrant or represent that the information in this presentation is free from errors or omissions or is suitable for your intended use. The information provided in this presentation may not be suitable for your specific situation or needs and should not be relied upon by you in substitution of you obtaining independent advice. Subject to any terms implied by law and which cannot be excluded, Stockland accepts no responsibility for any loss, damage, cost or expense (whether direct or indirect) incurred by you as a result of any error, omission or misrepresentation in information in this presentation. All information in this presentation is subject to change without notice.
==> picture [30 x 29] intentionally omitted <==