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Softing AG — Investor Presentation 2013
May 7, 2013
405_rns_2013-05-07_400f4f25-322b-4629-ae53-a9652753589b.pdf
Investor Presentation
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(CDAX, Technology)
| Value Indicators: | EUR | Share data: | Description: | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buy | DCF: | 10.00 | Bloomberg: | SYT GR | Software solutions (e.g. error | ||
| FCF-Value Potential: | 9.90 | Reuters: | diagnosis) for industrial plants and SYTG |
||||
| EUR 10.00 | ISIN: | DE0005178008 | automotive electronics | ||||
| Market Snapshot: | EUR m | Shareholders: | Risk Profile (WRe): | 2013e | |||
| Market cap: | 48.2 | Freefloat | 68.5 % | Beta: | 1.3 | ||
| Price | EUR 7.86 | No. of shares (m): | 6.1 | Trier Asset Mgmt | 26.7 % | Price / Book: | 2.1 x |
| Upside | 27.2 % | EV: | 36.6 | Treasury Stock | 4.8 % | Equity Ratio: | 61 % |
| Freefloat MC: | 33.0 | Net Fin. Debt / EBITDA: | -1.4 x | ||||
| Ø Trad. Vol. (30d): | 48.47 th | Net Debt / EBITDA: | -1.2 x |
Good start to the year triggers higher EBIT forecast
| Stated Figures Q1/2013: | Comment on Figures: | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Figures in EUR m | Q1/13 | Q1/13e | Q1/12 | yoy | 2013e | 2012 | yoy | Better revenue mix of software vs. hardware improved profitability |
| Sales | 12.2 | 13.2 | 12.5 | -2.6% | 54.0 | 49.4 | 9.3% | Near shoring capacities in Romania contributed to higher project efficiency |
| EBIT | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 16.5% | 5.5 | 4.9 | 12.1% | Higher number of shares compared to Q1 2013 |
| margin | 11.5% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 10.0% | |||
| Net income | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 27.2% | 3.9 | 3.5 | 12.0% | |
| margin | 9.0% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.1% | |||
| EPS in EUR | 0.18 | 0.17 | 0.16 | 12.5% | 0.63 | 0.59 | 6.8% |
Softing has preannounced good Q1 figures.
- Although sales were approximately at last year's level, profitability increased significantly. This mirrors a better revenue mix with a higher share of software vs. hardware.
- Order entries increased by 14% to EUR 15.8m. This strong development was driven by both segments (Automotive Electronics and Industrial Automation).
- The book-to-bill ratio is at 1.3. This indicates revenue growth in the coming quarters. Therefore, our revenue estimates remain unchanged.
- Strong order entries also helped to further increase the company's order backlog which grew to EUR 13.3m (+37% compared to the end of FY 2012). As a result, operative development over the next few quarters looks set to pave the way for the continuation of the positive newsflow.
- Softing's AGM takes place today in Munich. The dividend proposal will be EUR 0.27 per share.
- The Q1 figures clearly underline that the company's recently-issued 2013 guidance was, as always at the beginning of a new fiscal year, very conservative (old: revenues of more than EUR 50m and a constant EBIT). Now management expects to increase 2013 EBIT by approximately 10% compared to 2012. This new target confirms our estimates.
We reiterate our Buy recommendation as well as the PT of EUR 10.
| FY End: 31.12. in EUR m |
CAGR (12-15e) |
2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013e | 2014e | 2015e | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 8.6 % | 23.7 | 31.7 | 41.1 | 49.4 | 54.0 | 58.6 | 63.3 | ||
| Change Sales yoy | -29.1 % | 33.8 % | 29.9 % | 20.0 % | 9.3 % | 8.5 % | 8.0 % | |||
| Gross profit margin | 82.5 % | 80.0 % | 75.6 % | 76.3 % | 75.1 % | 74.1 % | 74.0 % | |||
| EBITDA | 11.0 % | 0.6 | 4.8 | 7.4 | 8.3 | 9.6 | 10.8 | 11.3 | ||
| Margin | 2.5 % | 15.3 % | 17.9 % | 16.7 % | 17.8 % | 18.5 % | 17.9 % | |||
| EBIT | 12.7 % | -2.5 | 1.5 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 6.6 | 7.0 | ||
| Margin | -10.4 % | 4.8 % | 10.3 % | 10.0 % | 10.2 % | 11.3 % | 11.1 % | |||
| Net income | 12.5 % | -1.7 | 1.0 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 5.0 | ||
| EPS | 11.1 % | -0.33 | 0.19 | 0.58 | 0.59 | 0.63 | 0.77 | 0.81 | ||
| EPS adj. | 11.1 % | -0.33 | 0.19 | 0.58 | 0.59 | 0.63 | 0.77 | 0.81 | ||
| DPS | 9.0 % | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.35 | ||
| Rel. Performance vs CDAX: | Dividend Yield | 0.0 % | 4.7 % | 6.9 % | 4.6 % | 3.8 % | 3.8 % | 4.5 % | ||
| FCFPS | -0.17 | 0.04 | 0.60 | 0.53 | 0.48 | 0.62 | 0.62 | |||
| 1 month: | 0.5 % | EV / Sales | 0.3 x | 0.3 x | 0.4 x | 0.5 x | 0.7 x | 0.6 x | 0.6 x | |
| 6 months: | -13.8 % | EV / EBITDA | 13.1 x | 1.8 x | 2.0 x | 2.9 x | 4.0 x | 3.4 x | 3.1 x | |
| Year to date: | 7.7 % | EV / EBIT | n.a. | 5.7 x | 3.5 x | 4.9 x | 7.1 x | 5.6 x | 5.0 x | |
| Trailing 12 months: | 28.2 % | P / E | n.a. | 12.4 x | 6.7 x | 9.9 x | 12.5 x | 10.2 x | 9.7 x | |
| P / E adj. | n.a. | 12.4 x | 6.7 x | 9.9 x | 12.5 x | 10.2 x | 9.7 x | |||
| Company events: | FCF Yield Potential | -16.7 % | 15.3 % | 20.5 % | 9.0 % | 9.4 % | 12.6 % | 13.3 % | ||
| 15.05.13 | Q1 | Net Debt | -3.0 | -3.3 | -5.8 | -10.4 | -11.6 | -13.5 | -15.5 | |
| 14.08.13 | Q2 | ROE | -11.5 % | 7.0 % | 19.1 % | 17.8 % | 17.0 % | 19.1 % | 18.3 % | |
| 15.11.13 | Q3 | ROCE (NOPAT) | -16.6 % | 10.0 % | 26.5 % | 30.0 % | 31.7 % | 37.8 % | 38.7 % | |
| Guidance: | 2013 guidance will be released after Q1 | |||||||||
A n a l y s t Andreas Wolf [email protected] +49 40 309537-140
Company Background
- Softing has the necessary expertise on information exchange between various devices, sensors, plant and software solutions in automated processes. The business activity comprises two segments.
- Industrial Automation: hardware and software solutions for the exchange of information in all kinds of production including montage lines, chemical plants, oil and gas extraction or refineries.
- Automotive Electronics: The solutions allow engineers and workshop mechanics to test automotive electronics in the development phase, production or repair, and to recognise errors through data evaluation.
- The solutions in the automotive segment are not for application within the vehicles and therefore do not pose a product re-call risk for the company.
- Softing focuses on established standards and reaches a coverage of ca. 70% of the market.
Competitive Quality
- World market leader in tools to recognise errors in production plant (so called field bus diagnostics)
- European market leader in the networking of various production plant elements as well as in business-related software (so-called OPC products).
- World market leader for components for the exchange of information in gas and oil plants. Some >50% of all devices registered worldwide that are used in these plants include components from Softing.
- Through participation in international committees that set standards for the exchange of information, a short time-to-market is achieved.
- The high complexity of the business activity of Softing is the single most important barrier to market entry for potential competitors.
DCF model
| Figures in EUR m 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e 2021e 2022e 2023e 2024e 2025e Sales 54.0 58.6 63.3 68.3 73.0 77.2 81.0 84.4 87.4 90.0 92.3 94.3 96.2 Sales change 9.3 % 8.5 % 8.0 % 8.0 % 6.8 % 5.8 % 4.9 % 4.2 % 3.5 % 3.0 % 2.6 % 2.2 % 2.0 % EBIT 5.5 6.6 7.0 7.2 7.3 7.7 8.1 8.4 8.6 8.8 9.0 9.2 9.3 EBIT-margin 10.2 % 11.3 % 11.1 % 10.5 % 10.0 % 10.0 % 10.0 % 9.9 % 9.9 % 9.8 % 9.8 % 9.7 % 9.7 % Tax rate (EBT) 30.0 % 29.0 % 30.0 % 30.0 % 30.0 % 30.0 % 30.0 % 30.0 % 30.0 % 30.0 % 30.0 % 30.0 % 30.0 % NOPAT 3.9 4.7 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 Depreciation 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.9 5.3 5.6 5.8 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.6 6.8 6.9 in % of Sales 7.6 % 7.2 % 6.8 % 7.2 % 7.2 % 7.2 % 7.2 % 7.2 % 7.2 % 7.2 % 7.2 % 7.2 % 7.2 % Changes in provisions 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Change in Liquidity from - Working Capital 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 - Capex 4.3 4.2 4.5 4.9 5.3 5.6 5.8 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.6 6.8 6.9 Capex in % of Sales 8.0 % 7.2 % 7.1 % 7.2 % 7.2 % 7.2 % 7.2 % 7.2 % 7.2 % 7.2 % 7.2 % 7.2 % 7.2 % Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free Cash Flow (WACC 2.9 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.3 4.7 5.0 5.2 5.5 5.7 5.9 6.0 6.2 Model) PV of FCF 2.7 3.2 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.8 share of PVs 16.27 % 42.83 % Model parameter Valuation (m) Derivation of WACC: Derivation of Beta: Present values 2025e 32 Terminal Value 22 Debt ratio 0.00 % Financial Strength 1.30 Financial liabilities 0 Cost of debt 2.8 % Liquidity 1.40 Pension liabilities 2 Market return 9.00 % Cyclicality 1.20 Hybrid capital 0 Risk free rate 4.00 % Transparency 1.20 Minority interest 0 Others 1.00 Market val. of investments 0 Liquidity 13 No. of shares (m) |
Detailed forecast period | Transitional period | Term. Value | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.0 % | ||||||||||
| 7 | ||||||||||
| 22 | ||||||||||
| 40.89 % | ||||||||||
| 6.4 | ||||||||||
| Equity Value 64 Value per share (EUR) |
WACC | 10.38 % | Beta | 1.28 | 10.02 |
Sensitivity Value per Share (EUR)
| Terminal Growth | Delta EBIT-margin | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta WACC | 1.25 % | 1.50 % | 1.75 % | 2.00 % | 2.25 % | 2.50 % | 2.75 % | Beta WACC | -1.5 pp | -1.0 pp | -0.5 pp +0.0 pp | +0.5 pp | +1.0 pp | +1.5 pp | |
| 1.48 11.4 % | 8.85 | 8.91 | 8.98 | 9.05 | 9.12 | 9.20 | 9.29 | 1.48 11.4 % | 7.80 | 8.22 | 8.63 | 9.05 | 9.46 | 9.88 | 10.29 |
| 1.38 10.9 % | 9.26 | 9.34 | 9.42 | 9.50 | 9.59 | 9.69 | 9.79 | 1.38 10.9 % | 8.19 | 8.62 | 9.06 | 9.50 | 9.94 | 10.38 | 10.82 |
| 1.33 10.6 % | 9.49 | 9.57 | 9.66 | 9.75 | 9.85 | 9.95 | 10.06 | 1.33 10.6 % | 8.39 | 8.85 | 9.30 | 9.75 | 10.20 | 10.66 | 11.11 |
| 1.28 10.4 % | 9.73 | 9.82 | 9.92 | 10.02 | 10.12 | 10.23 | 10.35 | 1.28 10.4 % | 8.61 | 9.08 | 9.55 | 10.02 | 10.48 | 10.95 | 11.42 |
| 1.23 10.1 % | 9.99 | 10.08 | 10.19 | 10.30 | 10.41 | 10.53 | 10.67 | 1.23 10.1 % | 8.85 | 9.33 | 9.81 | 10.30 | 10.78 | 11.26 | 11.74 |
| 1.18 9.9 % | 10.26 | 10.36 | 10.47 | 10.59 | 10.72 | 10.86 | 11.00 | 1.18 9.9 % | 9.10 | 9.60 | 10.10 | 10.59 | 11.09 | 11.59 | 12.09 |
| 1.08 9.4 % | 10.85 | 10.97 | 11.11 | 11.25 | 11.41 | 11.57 | 11.75 | 1.08 9.4 % | 9.65 | 10.19 | 10.72 | 11.25 | 11.79 | 12.32 | 12.85 |
The cyclical components of the business activity and the low liquidity of the share raise the capital costs.
Our long-term margin estimates are below Softing's target of 10%.
Free Cash Flow Value Potential
Warburg Research's valuation tool "FCF Value Potential" reflects the ability of the company to generate sustainable free cash flows. It is based on the "FCF potential" - a FCF "ex growth" figure - which assumes unchanged working capital and pure maintenance capex. A value indication is derived by discounting the "FCF potential" of a given year with the weighted costs of capital. The fluctuating value indications over time add a timing element to the DCF model (our preferred valuation tool).
| in EUR m | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013e | 2014e | 2015e | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income before minorities | -1.8 | 1.0 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 5.0 | |
| + Depreciation + Amortisation | 3.1 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.3 | |
| - Net Interest Income | -0.1 | -0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | |
| - Maintenance Capex | 2.6 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.5 | |
| + Other | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| = Free Cash Flow Potential | -1.3 | 1.3 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 4.7 | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield Potential | -16.7 % | 15.3 % | 20.5 % | 9.0 % | 9.4 % | 12.6 % | 13.3 % | |
| WACC | 10.38 % | 10.38 % | 10.38 % | 10.38 % | 10.38 % | 10.38 % | 10.38 % | |
| = Enterprise Value (EV) | 7.9 | 8.7 | 15.0 | 24.2 | 39.0 | 37.1 | 35.2 | |
| = Fair Enterprise Value | n.a. | 12.8 | 29.7 | 21.1 | 35.2 | 45.0 | 45.0 | |
| - Net Debt (Cash) | -12.1 | -12.1 | -12.1 | -12.1 | -13.4 | -15.3 | -17.2 | |
| - Pension Liabilities | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | |
| - Other | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| - Market value of minorities | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| + Market value of investments | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| = Fair Market Capitalisation | n.a. | 23.1 | 40.0 | 31.4 | 46.8 | 58.6 | 60.5 | |
| No. of shares (total) (m) | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6.1 | |
| = Fair value per share (EUR) | n.a. | 3.77 | 6.52 | 5.13 | 7.63 | 9.55 | 9.87 | |
| premium (-) / discount (+) in % | -2.9 % | 21.4 % | 25.5 % | |||||
| Sensitivity Fair value per Share (EUR) | ||||||||
| 13.38 % | n.a. | 3.30 | 5.44 | 4.35 | 6.34 | 7.90 | 8.22 | |
| 12.38 % | n.a. | 3.43 | 5.74 | 4.57 | 6.70 | 8.36 | 8.68 | |
| 11.38 % | n.a. | 3.59 | 6.10 | 4.82 | 7.13 | 8.90 | 9.22 | |
| WACC | 10.38 % | n.a. | 3.77 | 6.52 | 5.13 | 7.63 | 9.55 | 9.87 |
| 9.38 % | n.a. | 3.99 | 7.04 | 5.49 | 8.24 | 10.33 | 10.65 | |
| 8.38 % | n.a. | 4.27 | 7.68 | 5.95 | 9.00 | 11.30 | 11.62 | |
| 7.38 % | n.a. | 4.62 | 8.49 | 6.52 | 9.96 | 12.53 | 12.85 |
Capitalised own work is a significant element of the capex.
The earnings quality has clearly improved over the last years.
Increasing share of software revenues should have a positive effect on the FCF Value.
| Valuation | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013e | 2014e | 2015e | |
| Price / Book | 0.8 x | 0.8 x | 1.2 x | 1.6 x | 2.1 x | 2.0 x | 1.8 x |
| Book value per share ex intangibles | 1.24 | 1.52 | 1.96 | 2.43 | 2.66 | 3.11 | 3.58 |
| EV / Sales | 0.3 x | 0.3 x | 0.4 x | 0.5 x | 0.7 x | 0.6 x | 0.6 x |
| EV / EBITDA | 13.1 x | 1.8 x | 2.0 x | 2.9 x | 4.0 x | 3.4 x | 3.1 x |
| EV / EBIT | n.a. | 5.7 x | 3.5 x | 4.9 x | 7.1 x | 5.6 x | 5.0 x |
| EV / EBIT adj.* | n.a. | 5.7 x | 3.5 x | 4.9 x | 7.1 x | 5.6 x | 5.0 x |
| P / FCF | n.a. | 53.0 x | 6.5 x | 11.0 x | 16.3 x | 12.6 x | 12.6 x |
| P / E | n.a. | 12.4 x | 6.7 x | 9.9 x | 12.5 x | 10.2 x | 9.7 x |
| P / E adj.* | n.a. | 12.4 x | 6.7 x | 9.9 x | 12.5 x | 10.2 x | 9.7 x |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0 % | 4.7 % | 6.9 % | 4.6 % | 3.8 % | 3.8 % | 4.5 % |
| Free Cash Flow Yield Potential | -16.7 % | 15.3 % | 20.5 % | 9.0 % | 9.4 % | 12.6 % | 13.3 % |
| *Adjustments made for: - |
Consolidated profit & loss
| In EUR m | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013e | 2014e | 2015e |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 23.7 | 31.7 | 41.1 | 49.4 | 54.0 | 58.6 | 63.3 |
| Change Sales yoy | -29.1 % | 33.8 % | 29.9 % | 20.0 % | 9.3 % | 8.5 % | 8.0 % |
| Increase / decrease in inventory | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Own work capitalised | 2.2 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.9 |
| Total Sales | 25.8 | 34.4 | 43.2 | 52.6 | 56.9 | 61.3 | 66.2 |
| Material Expenses | 6.3 | 9.1 | 12.1 | 14.9 | 16.4 | 17.9 | 19.4 |
| Gross profit | 19.5 | 25.3 | 31.1 | 37.7 | 40.5 | 43.4 | 46.8 |
| Gross profit margin | 82.5 % | 80.0 % | 75.6 % | 76.3 % | 75.1 % | 74.1 % | 74.0 % |
| Personnel expenses | 14.9 | 16.1 | 19.4 | 23.6 | 24.7 | 25.7 | 26.8 |
| Other operating income | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Other operating expenses | 4.8 | 5.2 | 6.1 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 7.7 | 9.5 |
| Unfrequent items | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| EBITDA | 0.6 | 4.8 | 7.4 | 8.3 | 9.6 | 10.8 | 11.3 |
| Margin | 2.5 % | 15.3 % | 17.9 % | 16.7 % | 17.8 % | 18.5 % | 17.9 % |
| Depreciation of fixed assets | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| EBITA | 0.3 | 4.6 | 7.1 | 7.8 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 10.2 |
| Amortisation of intangible assets | 2.4 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.2 |
| Goodwill amortization | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| EBIT | -2.5 | 1.5 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 6.6 | 7.0 |
| Margin | -10.4 % | 4.8 % | 10.3 % | 10.0 % | 10.2 % | 11.3 % | 11.1 % |
| EBIT adj. | -2.5 | 1.5 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 6.6 | 7.0 |
| Interest income | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Interest expenses | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Other financial income (loss) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| EBT | -2.5 | 1.4 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 5.6 | 6.7 | 7.1 |
| Margin | -10.7 % | 4.3 % | 10.3 % | 10.0 % | 10.4 % | 11.5 % | 11.3 % |
| Total taxes | -0.7 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.1 |
| Net income from continuing operations | -1.8 | 1.0 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 5.0 |
| Income from discontinued operations (net of tax) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Net income before minorities | -1.8 | 1.0 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 5.0 |
| Minority interest | -0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Net income | -1.7 | 1.0 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 5.0 |
| Margin | -7.1 % | 3.1 % | 7.5 % | 7.1 % | 7.3 % | 8.1 % | 7.9 % |
| Number of shares, average | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.2 |
| EPS | -0.33 | 0.19 | 0.58 | 0.59 | 0.63 | 0.77 | 0.81 |
| EPS adj. | -0.33 | 0.19 | 0.58 | 0.59 | 0.63 | 0.77 | 0.81 |
| *Adjustments made for: |
Guidance: 2013 guidance will be released after Q1
Financial Ratios
| 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013e | 2014e | 2015e | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Operating Costs / Sales | 106.6 % | 93.3 % | 87.0 % | 89.7 % | 87.5 % | 86.1 % | 86.7 % |
| Operating Leverage | n.a. | n.a. | 5.9 x | 0.8 x | 1.3 x | 2.4 x | 0.8 x |
| EBITDA / Interest expenses | 3.6 x | 16.8 x | 29.1 x | 33.7 x | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| Tax rate (EBT) | 27.0 % | 27.2 % | 28.1 % | 29.0 % | 30.0 % | 29.0 % | 30.0 % |
| Dividend Payout Ratio | 0.0 % | 57.1 % | 47.1 % | 45.8 % | 47.3 % | 39.0 % | 43.4 % |
| Sales per Employee | 104,251 | 141,402 | 159,488 | 166,851 | 168,750 | 172,324 | 180,792 |
Sales, EBITDA in EUR m
Source: Warburg Research
Performance per Share
Source: Warburg Research
Source: Warburg Research
Consolidated balance sheet
| In EUR m | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013e | 2014e | 2015e |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Assets | |||||||
| Goodwill and other intangible assets | 7.2 | 7.1 | 6.7 | 7.8 | 7.7 | 6.6 | 6.5 |
| thereof other intangible assets | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| thereof Goodwill | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 |
| Property, plant and equipment | 0.7 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Financial assets | 1.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Other long-term assets | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Fixed assets | 9.0 | 9.6 | 8.7 | 9.9 | 9.8 | 8.6 | 8.6 |
| Inventories | 2.2 | 2.0 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 4.2 |
| Accounts receivable | 4.1 | 6.8 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 10.4 | 11.2 | 12.1 |
| Liquid assets | 4.2 | 6.1 | 8.5 | 12.6 | 13.8 | 15.8 | 17.7 |
| Other short-term assets | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| Current assets | 12.5 | 16.7 | 22.2 | 28.0 | 30.1 | 33.1 | 36.3 |
| Total Assets | 21.5 | 26.3 | 31.0 | 37.9 | 39.9 | 41.8 | 44.9 |
| Liabilities and shareholders' equity | |||||||
| Subscribed capital | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.4 |
| Capital reserve | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 |
| Retained earnings | 7.5 | 8.3 | 10.6 | 12.1 | 16.1 | 20.8 | 25.8 |
| Other equity components | -1.3 | -0.8 | -0.8 | -0.8 | -2.7 | -5.8 | -8.0 |
| Shareholder's equity | 13.5 | 14.9 | 17.2 | 22.2 | 24.2 | 25.8 | 28.7 |
| Minority interest | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Total equity | 13.6 | 15.0 | 17.2 | 22.2 | 24.2 | 25.8 | 28.7 |
| Provisions | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| thereof provisions for pensions and similar obligations | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| Financial liabilites (total) | 0.2 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| thereof short-term financial liabilities | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Accounts payable | 1.6 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.5 |
| Other liabilities | 4.9 | 6.6 | 7.4 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 9.3 |
| Liabilities | 7.9 | 11.3 | 13.8 | 15.7 | 15.8 | 16.0 | 16.3 |
| Total liabilities and shareholders' equity | 21.5 | 26.3 | 31.0 | 37.9 | 39.9 | 41.8 | 44.9 |
Financial Ratios
| 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013e | 2014e | 2015e | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Efficiency of Capital Employment | |||||||
| Operating Assets Turnover | 4.4 x | 4.1 x | 4.0 x | 4.2 x | 4.4 x | 4.4 x | 4.5 x |
| Capital Employed Turnover | 2.2 x | 2.7 x | 3.6 x | 4.2 x | 4.3 x | 4.8 x | 4.8 x |
| ROA | -18.6 % | 10.3 % | 35.1 % | 35.6 % | 40.2 % | 55.4 % | 58.2 % |
| Return on Capital | |||||||
| ROCE (NOPAT) | -16.6 % | 10.0 % | 26.5 % | 30.0 % | 31.7 % | 37.8 % | 38.7 % |
| ROE | -11.5 % | 7.0 % | 19.1 % | 17.8 % | 17.0 % | 19.1 % | 18.3 % |
| Adj. ROE | -11.5 % | 7.0 % | 19.1 % | 17.8 % | 17.0 % | 19.1 % | 18.3 % |
| Balance sheet quality | |||||||
| Net Debt | -3.0 | -3.3 | -5.8 | -10.4 | -11.6 | -13.5 | -15.5 |
| Net Financial Debt | -3.9 | -4.5 | -6.8 | -12.1 | -13.4 | -15.3 | -17.2 |
| Net Gearing | -21.7 % | -22.4 % | -33.5 % | -46.7 % | -48.0 % | -52.5 % | -54.0 % |
| Net Fin. Debt / EBITDA | -654.8 % | -92.7 % | -91.9 % | -146.5 % | -138.6 % | -141.4 % | -152.3 % |
| Book Value / Share | 2.6 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 4.6 |
| Book value per share ex intangibles | 1.2 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 3.6 |
Consolidated cash flow statement
| In EUR m | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013e | 2014e | 2015e |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net income | -1.8 | 1.0 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 5.0 |
| Depreciation of fixed assets | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Amortisation of goodwill | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Amortisation of intangible assets | 2.4 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.2 |
| Increase/decrease in long-term provisions | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Other non-cash income and expenses | -0.7 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Cash Flow | 0.5 | 4.6 | 7.5 | 8.2 | 8.1 | 9.0 | 9.3 |
| Increase / decrease in inventory | 0.3 | 0.2 | -0.8 | 0.3 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.3 |
| Increase / decrease in accounts receivable | 1.8 | -3.5 | -0.2 | -1.8 | -0.6 | -0.8 | -0.9 |
| Increase / decrease in accounts payable | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.2 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| Increase / decrease in other working capital positions | -0.9 | 2.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Increase / decrease in working capital (total) | 1.2 | -1.2 | -1.2 | -0.5 | -0.8 | -0.9 | -0.9 |
| Net cash provided by operating activities | 1.7 | 3.4 | 6.3 | 7.8 | 7.3 | 8.1 | 8.4 |
| Investments in intangible assets | -2.4 | -2.9 | -2.4 | -3.9 | -3.4 | -3.2 | -3.4 |
| Investments in property, plant and equipment | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.7 | -0.7 | -0.9 | -1.0 | -1.1 |
| Payments for acquisitions | -0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Financial investments | 0.0 | -1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Income from asset disposals | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Net cash provided by investing activities | -2.9 | -4.4 | -2.5 | -4.4 | -4.3 | -4.2 | -4.5 |
| Change in financial liabilities | 0.0 | 1.2 | 0.0 | -1.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Dividends paid | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.6 | -1.4 | -1.7 | -1.9 | -1.9 |
| Purchase of own shares | -0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Capital measures | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Other | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Net cash provided by financing activities | -0.3 | 1.7 | -0.8 | 0.9 | -1.7 | -1.9 | -1.9 |
| Change in liquid funds | -1.4 | 0.7 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| Effects of exchange-rate changes on cash | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Cash and cash equivalent at end of period | 4.1 | 4.9 | 7.3 | 11.5 | 12.8 | 14.7 | 16.6 |
Financial Ratios
| 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013e | 2014e | 2015e | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash Flow | |||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -0.9 | 0.2 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 3.9 |
| Free Cash Flow / Sales | -3.7 % | 0.7 % | 7.8 % | 6.4 % | 5.5 % | 6.6 % | 6.1 % |
| Free Cash Flow Potential | -1.3 | 1.3 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 4.7 |
| Free Cash Flow / Sales | -3.7 % | 0.7 % | 7.8 % | 6.4 % | 5.5 % | 6.6 % | 6.1 % |
| Free Cash Flow / Net Profit | 52.3 % | 23.0 % | 104.4 % | 89.3 % | 76.1 % | 81.1 % | 77.5 % |
| Interest Received / Avg. Cash | 2.0 % | 2.1 % | 3.5 % | 2.4 % | 0.8 % | 0.7 % | 0.6 % |
| Interest Paid / Avg. Debt | 144.3 % | 30.7 % | 14.8 % | 21.9 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
| Management of Funds | |||||||
| Investment ratio | 11.0 % | 10.0 % | 7.5 % | 9.4 % | 8.0 % | 7.2 % | 7.1 % |
| Maint. Capex / Sales | 11.0 % | 10.0 % | 7.5 % | 9.4 % | 8.0 % | 7.2 % | 7.1 % |
| Capex / Dep | 84.7 % | 95.1 % | 99.2 % | 139.1 % | 104.4 % | 100.1 % | 105.2 % |
| Avg. Working Capital / Sales | 24.7 % | 18.7 % | 19.6 % | 19.6 % | 19.7 % | 19.5 % | 19.5 % |
| Trade Debtors / Trade Creditors | 261.3 % | 390.0 % | 290.4 % | 333.8 % | 346.7 % | 350.0 % | 345.7 % |
| Inventory Turnover | 2.8 x | 4.5 x | 3.3 x | 4.5 x | 4.5 x | 4.6 x | 4.6 x |
| Receivables collection period (days) | 63 | 78 | 74 | 73 | 70 | 70 | 70 |
| Payables payment period (days) | 91 | 70 | 86 | 72 | 67 | 65 | 66 |
| Cash conversion cycle (Days) | 60 | 29 | 46 | 26 | 29 | 30 | 28 |
CAPEX and Cash Flow in EUR m
Working Capital
CO M M E N T Published 07.05.2013 8
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The valuation underlying the rating of the company analysed in this report is based on generally accepted and widely used methods of fundamental valuation, such as the DCF model, Free Cash Flow Value Potential, peer group comparison and – where applicable – a sum-of-the-parts model.
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SOURCES
All data and consensus estimates have been obtained from FactSet except where stated otherwise.
Section 34b of the German Securities Trading Act in combination with the FinAnV requires an enterprise preparing a securities analysis to point out possible conflicts of interest with respect to the company that is the subject of the analysis. A conflict of interest is assumed, in particular, when the enterprise preparing the analysis …
| -1- | … or companies affiliated with this enterprise holds 5% or more of the share capital of the analysed company |
|---|---|
| -2- | … or companies affiliated with this enterprise was a member in a consortium which acquired the shares of the analysed company within the last twelve months |
| -3- | … or companies affiliated with this enterprise manages the securities of the analysed company on the basis of an existing contract |
| -4- | … or companies affiliated with this enterprise over the previous 12 months has been providing investment banking services for the analysed company for which a compensation has been or will be paid |
| -5- | … effected an agreement with the analysed company for the preparation of the financial analysis |
| -6- | … or companies affiliated with this enterprise regularly trade in shares or derivatives of the analysed company |
| -7- | … or the analyst responsible for this company has other important financial interests in relation to the analysed company such as e.g. the performance of mandates for the analysed company |
| Company | Disclosure | Link to the historical price targets and rating changes (last 12 months) |
|---|---|---|
| Softing | 5, 6 | http://www.mmwarburg.com/disclaimer/disclaimer_en/DE0005178008.htm |
INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATION
Investment recommendation: expected direction of the share price development of the financial instrument up to the given price target in the opinion of the analyst who covers this financial instrument.
| -B- | Buy: | The price of the analysed financial instrument is expected to rise over the next 12 months. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| -H- | Hold: | The price of the analysed financial instrument is expected to remain mostly flat over the next 12 months. |
|
| -S- | Sell: | The price of the analysed financial instrument is expected to fall over the next 12 months. | |
| "-" | Rating suspended: | The available information currently does not permit an evaluation of the company. |
WARBURG RESEARCH GMBH – RESEARCH UNIVERSE BY RATING
| Rating | Number of stocks | % of Universe | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy | 109 | 57 | |
| Hold | 66 | 34 | |
| Sell | 14 | 7 | |
| Rating suspended | 3 | 2 | |
| Total | 192 | 100 |
WARBURG RESEARCH GMBH – ANALYSED RESEARCH UNIVERSE BY RATING …
… Looking only at companies for which a disclosure according to § 34b of the Germany Securities Trading Act and the FinAnV has to be made.
| Rating | Number of stocks | % of Universe |
|---|---|---|
| Buy | 97 | 63 |
| Hold | 50 | 32 |
| Sell | 6 | 4 |
| Rating suspended | 2 | 1 |
| Total | 155 | 100 |
PRICE AND RATING HISTORY SOFTING AS OF 07.05.2013
The chart has markings if Warburg Research GmbH changed its rating in the last 12 months. Every marking represents the date and closing price on the day of the rating change.
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