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Snam — Investor Presentation 2016
Oct 24, 2016
4042_ip_2016-10-24_cbfb0284-100d-474c-a3a8-b11bdca267e5.pdf
Investor Presentation
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Italgas Capital Markets Day
Italgas Capital Markets Day /
24th October 2016, London
Speakers
PAOLO GALLO ANTONIO PACCIORETTI
Italgas Capital Markets Day / 2
New Italgas brand
Key dates for demerger and listing
Last 3 months
Management structure
- Banking financing commitments granted to Italgas
Shareholder's and Noteholders' approval
Today
roadshow
Start management
Before listing
Execution of demerger legal documentations
\$
Banking financial agreements signed
November
- Admission to listing by Borsa Italiana & publication of the Prospectus
- Demerger and Listing
Italgas at a glance
Italgas Capital Markets Day / 6
The leading Italian natural gas distributor…
Italgas is the leading natural gas distribution operator in Italy, with a widespread and geographically diversified network of concessions
| OPERATING METRICS (TOTAL) |
OF WHICH AFFILIATES |
|
|---|---|---|
| Network length | ~65,000 km |
~8,000 km |
| Concessions | 1,578 | 106 |
| Redelivery points | ~7.4 m |
~0.9 m |
| Market share* | 33.9% | 3.6% |
| Gas distributed** | ~8.0 bcm |
~1.0 bcm |
| Employees | ~3,700 | ~400 |
* Calculated by redelivery points ** Annual Volume Source: Companies reports at Year End 2015
… with distinctive core competencies
Stable shareholder structure & best practice Corporate Governance
SHAREHOLDERS STRUCTURE
- 3-years Shareholder Agreement between Snam, CDP Reti & CDP Gas
- Significant free float and liquidity
SHAREHOLDERS Meeting Board of Statutory Auditors Board of Directors: 9 members Independent members: 4 out of 9 Gender representation: 3 women out of 9 Compensation Committee Control and risk Committee Sustainability Committee Appointments Committee
CORPORATE GOVERNANCE
Corporate structure
2016 key change: new regulatory WACC (6.1% from 6.9%)
* Source: Company reports, adjusted consolidated reported data referring to Italgas Reti (100% owned by Italgas). Revenues net of IFRIC 12
2016 key change: net debt increase* following demerger
Source: Company reports, consolidated reported data
Data referring to Italgas Reti (100% owned by Italgas )
* Increase in net debt refers to Italgas. Following the separation, Italgas consolidated net debt FY2015 pro-forma is € 3.5 billion.
High quality client base
Italgas major clients are investment grade
Italgas investment case
Highly visible returns and attractive dividend, Coupled with significant accretive growth opportunities
Market Overview
Natural gas distribution operator
DISTRIBUTION VALUE CHAIN
Leader in the European natural gas distribution market
RANKING BY REDELIVERY POINTS (# redelivery points, thousands, YE 2015)
MARKET SHARE IN ITALY BY REDELIVERY POINTS (market share, YE 2015)
Italgas consolidated Affiliates
European natural gas distribution market
Italgas Capital Markets Day / 18 Italian market evolving towards European average concentration
Market evolution
STREAMLINING OF ITALIAN OPERATORS
SCALE IS KEY IN THE ONGOING CONSOLIDATION PROCESS
The market is still fragmented, with further consolidation expected as transition towards the ATEM regime takes place
Italgas network
- Strong geographical presence: 7 districts & 50 operating centers
- Concessions concentrated in contiguous areas drive clear efficiency advantages
- Rome concession, representing 1.3m redelivery points (or 20% of total), will expire in 2024
Regulation
Current regulatory period
Regulatory Authority (AEGGSI) in Italy:
- Defines the criteria for revenue calculations and evaluates tariff proposals
- Guarantees third-party access to infrastructure
- Sets the quality standards of the service
- Current regulatory period to end-2019
- The regulatory period for the allowed rate of return, (lasting 6 years) in place until end-2021 with the mid-review effective in 2019
3 year updates of CAPM parameters
Clear and stable criteria driving visibility of returns over the period
Revenues composition
FY 2015
-
98% of revenues are regulated
- Performance sustained by additional regulated revenue streams
* Activation, suspension and deactivation of the supply, safety checks to final customers, incentives and other technical services
** Water and heating distribution activities, services to affiliates & real estate rentals
The regulatory framework: revenues calculation
YEARLY REVENUES FROM INVESTED CAPITAL (YEAR T) RAB 2015: 5.4bn€*
| Weight on revenues |
RAB (RAB of year t-2 + capex year t-1) | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| (2015) | x | Number of redelivery points | |
| ~40% | Rate of return (network 6.1%, metering 6.6%) | x | |
| = | + | Parametric cost recognition based on | |
| Allowed return on RAB | sector average | ||
| + | = | ||
| ~31% | Depreciation | Revenues from central assets | |
| + | |||
| Opex (based on a parametric approach) | |||
| ~29% | Metering, Distribution Commercial metering reading |
||
| Distribution allowed revenues |
YEARLY REVENUES FROM ANCILLARY ASSETS** (YEAR T) RAB 2015: 0.3bn€*
Italgas Capital Markets Day / 24
* Company estimate
** Central assets: ICT, Building, automotives, ect
The regulatory framework: RAB calculation
RAB CALCULATION (YEAR T)
Excluding ancillaries assets
RAB at the beginning of the year
+
Maintenance & Development capex
+
Inflation
–
Depreciation, Disposals and Subsidies
=
RAB at the end of the year*
* Includes a parametric calculation of the working capital
Operating costs: price cap methodology
REFERENCE OPEX CALCULATION
Updated at the beginning of each regulatory period by the Regulator
- Parametric value (€/redelivery point) depending on company size and client density
- Market divided in small, medium and large companies, and low, medium and high client density
- Recognized costs based on sector average costs of previous regulatory period
- From the 2nd to the 6th year of the regulatory period reference opex is calculated starting from the values of the previous year increased by inflation and decreased by Xfactor
REFERENCE OPEX UPDATE DURING THE REGULATORY PERIOD
Reference Opex Year 1
= calculated by the Authority (€/redelivery point)
Reference Opex Year 2 to 6
- Reference Opex
- = Previous year
x (1 + inflation – Xfactor)
Main elements of the regulatory framework
BENEFITS OVERVIEW
| Incentives to |
Parametric approach used by the regulator in setting: The allowed opex |
RAB methodology | RAB based allowed returns Re-valued historical cost Parametric method for central assets |
|---|---|---|---|
| efficiency |
Capex for metering installation |
WACC (real pre-tax) | 6.1% (distribution) 6.6% (metering) WACC calculation updated every 3 years |
| Low risk profile |
Asset return on a real basis No gas volume exposure |
Efficiency X-factor (real) |
Distribution: 1.7% on opex currently (until 2016¹) Metering: 0% on opex currently (until 2016¹) |
| Clear, transparent and stable |
Long regulatory period: 6 years Clear methodology for determination of allowed |
Assumed useful life of the network |
50 years for pipelines 40 years for connections 20 years for stations 15 years for meters |
| framework | revenue, allowed regulatory return and RAB |
Regulatory period |
Current period: 2014-2019 |
Historical concession legislation
BEFORE GAS MARKET LIBERALIZATION
GAS MARKET LIBERALIZATION (Letta decree 2000)
TEMPORARY PERIOD
MINISTERIAL DECREE 226/2011
- Vertically integrated companies (sales and distribution)
- Concessions at single municipality level
- Award of concessions mainly by private tenders
- Long term duration (30 years) with further extensions
-
Right to redemption
-
Mandatory corporate separation between distribution and sales activities
- Award of concession only through tender process and with a maximum duration of 12 years
-
Early expiry of existing concessions
-
Ordinary management of existing concessions until new awards
- Exception for the Southern Areas
-
Concessions tender at single municipality level with a duration of 12 years
-
New ATEM and calendar defined
- Concession length set at 12 years
- Standard criteria to evaluate the tenders
- Employment safeguard clause
New concession tenders
Consolidation
Form 6,800 municipalities to 177 larger ATEM concession areas Opportunity to increase the operating efficiency for the benefit of all the stakeholders
Timing
Protective termination compensation after 12 years* The 177 tenders to take place over the next 4 -5years. Most of the 'old-regime' concessions have expired
Infrastructure owned by the operator
Concession length
12 years with clear rules
Reimbursement value is clearly defined (based on the reconstruction value = VIR and considering the investments in the period)
Tender process
Standard criteria for awarding of the tenders: development of the distribution system, security and quality of the service and economics
Operational continuity
The new operator is obliged to employ the current staff (with a cap of 1 employee per 1,500 redelivery points)
Operating requirements are part of the conditions for admission to the tender
* Current redemption value based on reconstruction value net of grants, and considering specific contractual agreements defined with single municipalities in the expiring concession
ESTIMATED NUMBER OF TENDER PER YEAR OF PUBLICATION
FINANCIAL CRITERIA
TECHNICAL CRITERIA
Average historical revenues > 50% of ATEM yearly revenues
OR
- Banks financial guarantees for > 50% of ATEM yearly revenues + financial investment to repay the outgoing operator
- Experience in managing natural gas networks with at least 50% of the clients of the ATEM
OR
Experience in running similar concessions and availability of facilities, transport and staff to manage the network and possible emergency situations
Selective competition in the new concession tenders
Legal tender criteria for awarding concessions
Awarding system focused on technical criteria favor experienced players
Operational excellence
Operational track-record
OPERATIONAL COMPLEXITY (2015 data)
- 23,000 km of network inspected
- 8,000 measurements of the level of odorization
- 77,000 Emergency calls
- Proven track record in managing local networks, in particular in metropolitan areas
- Network inspected and steel network cathodic protection outperforming Authority standard
Outstanding performance in managing complexity Best practice and economy of scale, solid platform for growth
Distinctive competencies in capex execution
>1500 yearly small projects managed (worth ~90% of the total capex), mainly related to substitutions and connections:
- Average size: ~200k€
- Average duration: < 1 year
~50 on-going projects for networks extension
- Average size: ~3 m€
- Average duration: > 2 years
Deep knowledge of the territory and proven execution capabilities
Consistently delivering on budget
MARKET SHARE/MARGIN CORRELATION (top 5 players)
Italgas benefits from its operational practices and economies of scale
Strategy for value creation
- Uniquely positioned to drive further efficiencies leveraging on our competitive cost base
- Clear strategy to implement financial efficiencies
- Capital deployed at RAB value
- Concession tenders opportunity to reach ~40% market share
- Active portfolio management
Main areas of efficiency (opex and capex)
1
Workforce and operations
- Increasing productivity through the improvement of working practices
- Leveraging on «make or buy» mix
- Optimizing metering management (traditional and smart)
ICT
- Exploiting all economies of scale
- Contract renegotiations
- Improving continuously technology innovation (ICT and telecom)
Facility
- Utilities cost reduction
- Facility management optimization (i.a. real estate, transport)
Smart meters
- Optimizing smart meters supply cost, levereging on volumes
- Technology innovation
Asset management
- Exploiting all economies of scale
- Restructuring contracts of network maintenance and expansion
Opportunity to further outperform parametric opex, at least recovering spin-off emerging costs in the plan period
Efficient capital deployment
Efficiency actions: some examples 1
Increase workers productivity through the:
- Re-definition of the standard hours required for each technical activity
- Optimization of transfer timing to site
- More efficient planning of activities required by final customers at redelivery points
- Optimization of traditional meters reading
Improving infrastructural and telecom service contractual structure
New tender for facility contracts
Reducing telecoms cost associated to smart meter reading through awarding new contracts
Upgrade procurement strategy related to:
- Smart meters supply separeted from installation
- Network maintenance and extension contract dedicated to planned activities
€ ~4 m € ~2 m € ~3 m € ~8 m
Significant organic investment plan 2016-2020 2
2.0 bn€ CAPEX (>35% of 2015 RAB)
(over the plan period, capital deployed at RAB value)
Smart metering
- Large size (>G6): ~40,000 meters in the 2016-2019 period
- Mass market (G4-G6): ~4.7m of meters installed in the 2016-19 period, 50% smart meters installed by 2018
Network development
- Expansion/Development of networks: ~520km of new pipelines
- New networks: completion by 2018 of the natural gasconnection program for the South (~120km of new pipelines)
Network maintenance
- Completion of the replacement of the cast iron pipelines with lead joints (~34 km of new pipelines)
- Replacement of ~250 km of cast iron pipelines and spheroidal cast iron
- Metering Replacement/revamping of ~435km of other pipes
€ 2 bn organic investment at RAB remuneration >6%*
Organic RAB evolution not considering tender process 2
IMPROVING RAB REMUNERATION MIX
RAB steadily growing above inflation
(1) Average inflation considered 1 %, under current regulatory framework
Italgas Capital Markets Day / 42 (2) Grants of the period; continuity of regulatory treatment assumed for grants cumulated at 2015 year end
Legal tender criteria for awarding concessions 3
AWARDED ITALGAS COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES
- The large, incumbent operators are expected to have a competitive advantage on the qualitative and operational factors
- The incumbent operators are expected to have competitive advantage related to their knowledge of the assets
- Limited weight of economical criteria
- Favours the largest players, enabling them to optimise the concession portfolio
Italgas uniquely positioned for the new tenders and ready for market opportunities
Italgas tender selection
3
| Criteria | Strengths | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Italgas presence in the ATEM |
Weight of Italgas' Redelivery Points (RDPs) on total RPDs in the relevant ATEM |
Flexibility in tender selection |
Conservative win-rate target considered in the plan |
| Type of operators & Fragmentation |
Market share of major operators in the ATEM, number and type of operators |
Competitiveness | Cost base lower than peers. Best practice applied in the new concessions Competitive cost of capital |
| Geographical Proximity |
Italgas' presence in nearby ATEMs |
Bidding process | Dedicated skilled staff to manage the bidding process Deep knowledge of legislative framework |
Well positioned to increase market share and underpin profitability in the medium term
Italgas position in the new ATEMs
3
Solid platform to increase market share
Tenders clusters 3
Out of the 40 very attractive ATEMS, ~30 are expected to be awarded within 2019
Very attractive tenders In ~40 ATEMs Italgas is the leading operator
Medium attractive
tenders
In ~50 ATEMs Italgas has a relevant market share and will concentrate on those where it can achieve its target returns
Low to zero attractive tenders Redemption value
2016 TO COMPLETION OF CONCESSION RENEWALS
Financial structure
Key drivers of financial strategy
| Cash flow | Strong visible and resilient cash flow generation to cover both organic capex and dividend Significant investment opportunities driven by the tender process calendar |
|---|---|
| Solid balance sheet and rating |
Firm commitment to solid investment grade rating (expected BBB+ by Fitch, provisional Baa1 by Moody's) Committed financing package to maintain a safe liquidity profile over medium term Leverage expected to increase as a result of new concession awards within the boundaries of a solid investment grade rating |
| Debt structure | Debt structure target (tenor and fixed/floating rates) consistent with the regulatory profile and limiting exposure to interest rate while protecting financial outperformance Appropriate mix of funding sources Flexible debt capital structure to manage financial needs related to tender opportunities |
Solid and efficient financial structure preserving low risk profile and supporting value for shareholders
RESILIENT CASH FLOW GENERATION AND STRONG CREDIT METRICS
Net Debt/RAB*
- Business growth supported by financial flexibility
- ND/RAB is expected to peak beyond 2020 (up to 70%) well within the solid investment grade area
-
Rapid deleveraging after tender process completion, with a pace of >1% per year
-
Sound and resilient cash flow
- Well positioned within rating boundary over the plan horizon
Expected debt structure after demerger
€bn, consolidated figures
- Conservative buffer consistent with an adequate liquidity profile
- Flexible structure to manage cash flow swings
- 5-years plan pre-funded
- New EIB financing of €300m (closing expected within 2016)
Cost based on current market conditions
- Ready to repay the bridge to bond relying on favourable debt capital markets in the current low rate scenario
- Fix/Floating breakdown: 2/3 after the Bridge-to-Bond repayment
Competitive cost of debt at demerger Average spread ~0.5%
Self financing of investments and shareholders remuneration, flexibility for the growth
<70% Net Debt/RAB
- Operating cash flow covers dividend distributions and organic capex over business plan
- Financial flexibility allows to participate in market opportunities and enhance shareholder remuneration
- Net Debt/RAB at completion of the tender process based on our business plan: <70%
Closing Remarks
2016 Guidance and mid term evolution
2016 PRO-FORMA CONSOLIDATED RESULTS
MID-TERM
- Expected to grow in line with capital deployment following organic capex, new tender process and market opportunities
- Opportunities for further cost reduction
Room to outperform cost of capital
- Sustainable over the medium term
- FY2017 – FY2018: low single-digit yearly increase
Value drivers for profitable and sustainable mid-term growth
Sustainable and attractive dividend policy Coupled with significant accretive growth opportunity
Italgas Capital Markets Day / 59
Corporate structure
Toscana Energia
Toscana Energia: a strategic industrial partnership
- Governance agreement grants the right to Italgas to appoint the CEO
- 104 concessions in Tuscany
- Consolidated with equity method
- Contributing >7% to Italgas 2015 pro-forma net income
AVERAGE SECTOR COSTS BY SIZE AND DENSITY (2016)
| G | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| N RI |
t (dis) E opex,t T E M |
t(ins)opex | t(rac)opex | t(cot) |
| 2,26 | 3,20 | 1,20 |
- Reference costs per redelivery point
-
Covering the distribution costs
-
Reference costs per meter
- Covering the installation and maintenance of meters (ins), remote reading (rac) and commercialization costs (cot)
WACC is calculated using the CAPM method
| Decree 583/2015/R/COM | 0.5% floor offers protection | WACC – | WACC – |
|---|---|---|---|
| against further real interest | Distribution | Metering | |
| Real risk free rate | rate fall | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| Country risk premium | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| Beta unlevered | 0.44 | 0.50 | |
| Beta levered | 0.63 | 0.72 | |
| Market risk premium | 5.5% | 5.5% | |
| Real cost of equity | 5.0% | 5.5% | |
| Real risk free rate | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| Country risk premium | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| Debt risk premium | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| Cost of debt (pre-tax) | 2.0% | 2.0% | |
| Tax shield | 27.5% | 27.5% | |
| Real cost of debt | 1.5% | 1.5% | |
| D/E | 60.0% | 60.0% | |
| D/(D+E) | 37.5% | 37.5% | |
| Tax rate | 34.4% | 34.4% | |
| Inflation rate | 1.5% | 1.5% | |
| F factor | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| WACC for regulatory purposes | 6.1% | 6.6% | |
| 2016-2018 |
Italgas consolidated income statement
| Consolidated income statement (€m) |
2013 | 2014 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues (*) | 1,038 | 1,053 | 1,098 |
| - of which regulated (*) |
1,008 | 1,026 | 1,071 |
| EBITDA | 719 | 722 | 742 |
| EBITDA adjusted | 730 | 722 | 782 |
| Amortisation/depreciation | (214) | (245) | (273) |
| EBIT | 505 | 477 | 469 |
| EBIT adjusted | 516 | 477 | 509 |
| Net financial expences |
(70) | (60) | (53) |
| Net income form equity investments |
60 | 98 | 29 |
| taxes | (194) | (115) | (110) |
| NET INCOME | 301 | 406 | 340 |
| NET INCOME adjusted | 308 | 355 | 346 |
* Net of revenue from the construction and upgrading of natural gas distribution infrastructure, entered according to IFRIC 12 and posted in an amount equal to the related costs incurred (€319 million, €316 million, €321 million respectively in 2013, 2014 and 2015) The data relating to 2015 include Acam Gas S.p.A. wholly consolidated from 1 April 2015, Metano Arcore S.p.A. incorporated into Italgas S.p.A. with effect from 1 January 2015 and previously valued at the shareholders' equity, SETEAP S.p.A., the subject of a merger by incorporation into Napoletanagas S.p.A. with effect from 1 January 2015, previously valued at the shareholders' equity. With regard to the full consolidation of AES Torino S.p.A. from 1 July 2014, the economic effects were recognised, respectively in the whole of 2015 and in six months of 2014.
| Consolidated income statement (€m) |
31.12.2013 | 31.12.2014 | 31.12. 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fixed capital |
4.385 | 4.650 | 4.761 |
| Net working capital |
(306) | (211) | (90) |
| Net Invested Capital |
4.019 | 4.368 | 4.572 |
| Net Debt | (1.664) | (1.772) | (1.848) |
| Shareholder equity |
2,355 | 2,596 | 2,724 |
The data for 2015 include Acam Gas S.p.A. fully consolidated from 1 April 2015, Metano Arcore S.p.A. incorporated into Italgas S.p.A. with effect from 1 January 2015 and previously valued at the shareholders' equity, SETEAP S.p.A., the subject of a merger by incorporation into Napoletanagas S.p.A., with effect from 1 January 2015, previously valued at the shareholders' equity. With reference to the full consolidation of AES Torino S.p.A. from 1 July 2014, the economic effects are observed, respectively in all of 2015 and in six months in 2014.
This presentation (the "Presentation") is for information purposes only. The contents of this Presentation may not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced in whole or in part. The document is to be used by the intended recipients only and the document may not be forwarded to a third party.
Neither this Presentation nor any part or copy of it may be taken or transmitted into the United States or distributed, directly or indirectly, in the United States. Any failure to comply with this restriction may constitute a violation of U.S. securities laws.
This Presentation does not constitute or form part of any offer or invitation to sell or issue, or any solicitation of any offer to purchase or subscribe or sell for, or any offer to underwrite or otherwise acquire any shares in Italgas S.p.A. ("Italgas") or Snam S.p.A. ("Snam") any other securities, nor shall the Presentation form the basis of or be relied on in connection with any contract or investment decision relating thereto, or constitute a recommendation regarding the securities of Italgas or Snam or any other company or a proposal or an undertaking to enter into an agreement or a commitment to any kind of obligation.
This Presentation does not purport to be comprehensive. Anyone reviewing this Presentation and considering an investment decision regarding the securities of Italgas or Snam or having any doubt about the contents of this Presentation, should obtain independent professional advice.
No representation or warranty, express or implied, is given by or on behalf of and no liability whatsoever is accepted by Italgas or Snam or any of their directors, officers, advisers, agents or employees, nor any other person as to the accuracy, truthfulness, fairness, materiality or completeness of the information or opinions contained in this Presentation.
This Presentation contains forward-looking statements regarding future events and the future results of Italgas that are based on current expectations, estimates, forecasts, and projections about the industries in which Italgas operates and the beliefs and assumptions of the management of Italgas. Italgas' actual results may differ materially and adversely from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements.
This Presentation speaks as of its date and will not be updated. Recipients should not treat the contents of this Presentation as advice relating to legal, taxation or investment matters, and are to make their own assessments concerning these and the other consequences of the various investments, including the merits of any investment and the relevant risks.
Italgas Capital Markets Day
Italgas Capital Markets Day / 67
24th October 2016, London