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SFC Energy AG — Earnings Release 2015
Apr 30, 2015
388_rns_2015-04-30_b34aa352-ce48-4f6c-9eb1-880f29849731.pdf
Earnings Release
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SFC Energy
(CDAX, Industrial Goods & Services)
| Value Indicators: | EUR | Share data: | Description: | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buy | DCF: | 6.40 | Bloomberg: | F3C GR | Solutions for off-grid and stationary | ||
| FCF-Value Potential 16e: 3.60 Reuters: |
F3CG power generation + distribution |
||||||
| EUR 6.40 | ISIN: | DE0007568578 | |||||
| Market Snapshot: | EUR m | Shareholders: | Risk Profile (WRe): | 2015e | |||
| Market cap: | 45.4 | Freefloat | 52.9 % | Beta: | 1.6 | ||
| Price | EUR 5.27 | No. of shares (m): | 8.6 | HPE | 24.1 % | Price / Book: | 1.8 x |
| Upside | 21.4 % | EV: | 44.5 | Havensight | 9.6 % | Equity Ratio: | 54 % |
| Freefloat MC: | 24.0 | Conduit Ventures | 9.5 % | ||||
| Ø Trad. Vol. (30d; EUR): | 48.61 th | DWS (in freefloat) | 6.8 % |
Preview: Expected to report only marginally below last year's Q1, despite oil price slump Tuesday, May 5: Figures Q1 2015
| Expected Figures Q1/2015: | Comment on Figures: | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY End: 31.12. in EUR m |
Q1 15e |
Q1 14 |
yoy | 15e | 14 | yoy | Q1 revenues + earnings expected to be only slightly below last year's figures owing to lacking Defence orders |
| Sales EBITDA adj. EBIT adj. EBIT |
12.5 -0.5 -0.9 -1.5 |
12.9 -0.2 -0.6 -1.2 |
-3 % n.a. n.a. n.a. |
60.1 2.3 0.6 -1.8 |
53.6 0.3 -1.2 -4.3 |
12 % 670 % n.a. n.a. |
Slump in oil price should only have a limited impact thus far, which is positive |
Despite the sharp drop in the oil price, SFC's Q1 revenues are expected to decrease only slightly yoy. Sales in the leisure, industrial and oil + gas business are expected to have developed flatly, only the lack of defence orders should have caused the slightly lower revenue base.
The somewhat lower sales basis and margin for Defence revenues should have led to a still slightly negative adj. EBITDA. Reported earnings figures are still burdened by PPA amortisations and a P&L effective transaction price effect from the acquisition of Simark (in total c. EUR 2.4m in 2015).
SFC should confirm its 2015 guidance. The recent contract with Schneider Electric will support Simark's business development from 2015 onwards and mostly offset an oil price-related organic sales decline. Hence, SFC should reach double-digit revenue growth in 2015, which should enable the company to achieve a positive adj. EBIT figure for the first time in the SFC's history.
| 6.75 $0.6 -$ 8.25 0 $5.75 -$ 6.6 A, 6.25 5 4.75 4.6 4.25 |
Marmy | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/14 | 07/14 | 00/14 | 11/14 | 01/16 | 03/16 |
| BFD Energy | GDAX (normalised) |
| Rel. Performance vs CDAX: | |
|---|---|
| 1 month: | 14.3 % |
| 6 months: | -20.1 % |
| Year to date: | -20.9 % |
| Trailing 12 months: | -12.0 % |
| Company events: | |
| 05.05.15 | Q1 |
| 07.05.15 | AGM |
| 03.08.15 | Q2 |
| 10.11.15 | Q3 |
| FY End: 31.12. in EUR m |
CAGR (14-16e) |
2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015e | 2016e |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 11.5 % | 13.3 | 15.4 | 31.3 | 32.4 | 53.6 | 60.1 | 66.7 |
| Change Sales yoy | 14.1 % | 15.7 % | 102.6 % | 3.7 % | 65.4 % | 12.2 % | 10.8 % | |
| Gross profit margin | 30.3 % | 34.8 % | 40.8 % | 32.8 % | 29.2 % | 31.3 % | 31.3 % | |
| EBITDA | - | -3.5 | -4.6 | 0.7 | -4.5 | -1.2 | 1.0 | 2.7 |
| Margin | -26.2 % | -30.1 % | 2.3 % | -13.8 % | -2.2 % | 1.7 % | 4.0 % | |
| EBIT | - | -4.5 | -6.6 | -0.5 | -8.8 | -4.3 | -1.8 | -0.1 |
| EBIT adj. | -4.5 | -4.1 | -1.0 | -4.2 | -1.2 | 0.6 | 1.2 | |
| Margin | - | -33.8 % | -26.8 % | -3.2 % | -12.9 % | -2.3 % | 1.0 % | 1.8 % |
| Net income | - | -4.1 | -6.2 | -0.4 | -8.9 | -4.8 | -2.4 | -0.7 |
| EPS | - | -0.58 | -0.87 | -0.06 | -1.16 | -0.60 | -0.27 | -0.08 |
| EPS adj. | - | -0.58 | -0.52 | -0.12 | -0.56 | -0.22 | 0.01 | 0.07 |
| FCFPS | -0.91 | -0.82 | 0.08 | -1.07 | -0.55 | 0.09 | 0.16 | |
| EV / Sales | n.a. | 0.7 x | 0.6 x | 1.1 x | 0.7 x | 0.7 x | 0.6 x | |
| EV / EBITDA | n.a. | n.a. | 25.1 x | n.a. | n.a. | 42.6 x | 16.2 x | |
| EV / EBIT adj. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | 74.7 x | 35.4 x | |
| P / E | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | |
| P / E adj. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | 527.0 x | 75.3 x | |
| FCF Yield Potential | n.a. | -52.9 % | 0.3 % | -1.4 % | 1.8 % | 5.2 % | 6.4 % | |
| Net Debt | -34.1 | -22.0 | -22.5 | -2.9 | -1.2 | -0.9 | -2.3 | |
| ROE | -9.4 % | -15.9 % | -1.2 % | -27.2 % | -17.0 % | -8.8 % | -2.6 % | |
| ROCE (NOPAT) | -70.2 % | -59.1 % | -3.5 % | -43.9 % | -17.2 % | -7.9 % | -0.6 % | |
| Guidance: | 2015: Sales EUR 55 - 65m; Improvement of underlying earnings |
A n a l y s t
Malte Schaumann [email protected] +49 40 309537-170
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This research report was prepared by the Warburg Research GmbH, a subsidiary of the M.M.Warburg & CO (AG & Co.) KGaA and is passed on by the M.M.Warburg & CO (AG & Co.) KGaA. It contains selected information and does not purport to be complete. The report is based on publicly available information and data ("the information") believed to be accurate and complete. Warburg Research GmbH neither does examine the information to be accurate and complete, nor guarantees its accuracy and completeness. Possible errors or incompleteness of the information do not constitute grounds for liability of M.M.Warburg & CO (AG & Co.) KGaA or Warburg Research GmbH for damages of any kind whatsoever, and M.M.Warburg & CO (AG & Co.) KGaA and Warburg Research GmbH are not liable for indirect and/or direct and/or consequential damages. In particular, neither M.M.Warburg & CO (AG & Co.) KGaA nor Warburg Research GmbH are liable for the statements, plans or other details contained in these analyses concerning the examined companies, their affiliated companies, strategies, economic situations, market and competitive situations, regulatory environment, etc. Although due care has been taken in compiling this research report, it cannot be excluded that it is incomplete or contains errors. M.M.Warburg & CO (AG & Co.) KGaA and Warburg Research GmbH, their shareholders and employees are not liable for the accuracy and completeness of the statements, estimations and the conclusions derived from the information contained in this document. Provided a research report is being transmitted in connection with an existing contractual relationship, i.e. financial advisory or similar services, the liability of M.M.Warburg & CO (AG & Co.) KGaA and Warburg Research GmbH shall be restricted to gross negligence and wilful misconduct. In case of failure in essential tasks, M.M.Warburg & CO (AG & Co.) KGaA and Warburg Research GmbH are liable for normal negligence. In any case, the liability of M.M.Warburg & CO (AG & Co.) KGaA and Warburg Research GmbH is limited to typical, expectable damages. This research report does not constitute an offer or a solicitation of an offer for the purchase or sale of any security. Partners, directors or employees of M.M.Warburg & CO (AG & Co.) KGaA, Warburg Research GmbH or affiliated companies may serve in a position of responsibility, i.e. on the board of directors of companies mentioned in the report. Opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice. All rights reserved.
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DISCLOSURE ACCORDING TO §34B (1) OF THE GERMAN SECURITIES TRADING ACT (WHPG) AND THE ORDINANCE ON THE ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS (FINANV)
The valuation underlying the investment recommendation for the company analysed here is based on generally accepted and widely used methods of fundamental analysis, such as e.g. DCF Model, Free Cash Flow Potential, Peer Group Comparison or Sum of the Parts Model. The result of this fundamental valuation is modified to take into consideration the analyst's assessment as regards the expected development of investor sentiment and its impact on the share price.
Independent of the applied valuation methods, there is the risk that the price target will not be met, for instance because of unforeseen changes in demand for the company's products, changes in management, technology, economic development, interest rate development, operating and/or material costs, competitive pressure, supervisory law, exchange rate, tax rate etc. For investments in foreign markets and instruments there are further risks, generally based on exchange rate changes or changes in political and social conditions.
This commentary reflects the opinion of the relevant author at the point in time of its compilation. A change in the fundamental factors underlying the valuation can mean that the valuation is subsequently no longer accurate. Whether, or in what time frame, an update of this commentary follows is not determined in advance.
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SOURCES
All data and consensus estimates have been obtained from FactSet except where stated otherwise.
Reference in accordance with section 34b of the German Securities Trading Act (WpHG) and the Ordiance on the Analysis of Financial Instruments (FinAnV) regarding possible conflicts of interest with the analysed company:
| -1- | The company preparing the analysis or any of its affiliated companies hold over 5% of shares in the analysed company's equity capital. |
|---|---|
| -2- | Within the last twelve months, the company preparing the analysis or any of its affiliated companies have participated in the management of a consortium for the public offering of financial securities, which are (or the issuer of which) is the subject of the analysis. |
| -3- | The company preparing the analysis or any of its affiliated companies manage the securities of the analysed company on the grounds of an existing contract. |
| -4- | On the grounds of an existing contract, the company preparing the analysis or any of its affiliated companies, have managed investment banking services for the analysed company within the last twelve months, out of which a service or the promise of a has service emerged. |
| -5- | The company preparing the analysis and the analysed company came to an agreement regarding the preparation of the financial analysis. |
| -6- | The company preparing the analysis or any of its affiliated companies regularly trade in shares or derivatives of the analysed company. |
| -7- | The company preparing the analysis as well as its affiliated companies and employees have other important interests in relation to the analysed company, such as, for example, the exercising of mandates at analysed companies. |
| Company | Disclosure | Link to the historical price targets and rating changes (last 12 months) |
|---|---|---|
| SFC Energy | 1, 3, 4, 5 | http://www.mmwarburg.com/disclaimer/disclaimer_en/DE0007568578.htm |
INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATION
Investment recommendation: expected direction of the share price development of the financial instrument up to the given price target in the opinion of the analyst who covers this financial instrument.
| -B- | Buy: | The price of the analysed financial instrument is expected to rise over the next 12 months. |
|---|---|---|
| -H- | Hold: | The price of the analysed financial instrument is expected to remain mostly flat over the next 12 months. |
| -S- | Sell: | The price of the analysed financial instrument is expected to fall over the next 12 months. |
| "-" | Rating suspended: | The available information currently does not permit an evaluation of the company. |
WARBURG RESEARCH GMBH – RESEARCH UNIVERSE BY RATING
| Rating | Number of stocks | % of Universe |
|---|---|---|
| Buy | 101 | 55 |
| Hold | 70 | 38 |
| Sell | 8 | 4 |
| Rating suspended | 4 | 2 |
| Total | 183 | 100 |
WARBURG RESEARCH GMBH – ANALYSED RESEARCH UNIVERSE BY RATING …
… Looking only at companies for which a disclosure according to § 34b of the Germany Securities Trading Act and the FinAnV has to be made.
| Rating | Number of stocks | % of Universe |
|---|---|---|
| Buy | 81 | 59 |
| Hold | 48 | 35 |
| Sell | 5 | 4 |
| Rating suspended | 3 | 2 |
| Total | 137 | 100 |
PRICE AND RATING HISTORY SFC ENERGY AS OF 30.04.2015
The chart has markings if Warburg Research GmbH changed its rating in the last 12 months. Every marking represents the date and closing price on the day of the rating change.
SFC Energy
EQUITIES
Roland Rapelius +49 40 3282-2673 Head of Equities [email protected]
RESEARCH
SALES TRADING
MACRO RESEARCH
INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY SALES
Michael Ilgenstein +49 40 3282-2700 Sales Trading [email protected]
Matthias Thiel +49 40 3282-2401
Henner Rüschmeier +49 40 309537-270 Malte Räther +49 40 309537-185 Eggert Kuls +49 40 309537-256 Stephan Wulf +49 40 309537-150 Engineering [email protected] Utilities [email protected] Frank Laser +49 40 309537-235 Construction, Industrials [email protected] Andreas Pläsier +49 40 309537-246 Banks, Financial Services [email protected]
Head of Research [email protected] Technology, Telco, Internet [email protected] Lucas Boventer +49 40 309537-290 Jochen Reichert +49 40 309537-130 Others [email protected] Telco, Internet, Media [email protected] Christian Cohrs +49 40 309537-175 Arash Roshan Zamir +49 40 309537-155 Engineering, Logistics [email protected] Engineering, Logistics [email protected] Felix Ellmann +49 40 309537-120 Malte Schaumann +49 40 309537-170 Software, IT [email protected] Technology [email protected] Jörg Philipp Frey +49 40 309537-258 Oliver Schwarz +49 40 309537-250 Retail, Consumer Goods [email protected] Chemicals, Agriculture [email protected] Harald Hof +49 40 309537-125 Marc-René Tonn +49 40 309537-259 Medtech [email protected] Automobiles, Car Suppliers [email protected] Ulrich Huwald +49 40 309537-255 Björn Voss +49 40 309537-254 Health Care, Pharma [email protected] Steel, Car Suppliers [email protected] Thilo Kleibauer +49 40 309537-257 Andreas Wolf +49 40 309537-140 Retail, Consumer Goods [email protected] Software, IT [email protected]
Holger Nass +49 40 3282-2669 Ömer Güven +49 40 3282-2633 Head of Equity Sales, USA [email protected] USA, Germany [email protected] Klaus Schilling +49 40 3282-2664 Michael Kriszun +49 40 3282-2695 Dep. Head of Equity Sales, GER [email protected] United Kingdom [email protected] Christian Alisch +49 40 3282-2667 Marc Niemann +49 40 3282-2660 Scandinavia, Spain [email protected] Germany [email protected] Tim Beckmann +49 40 3282-2665 Sanjay Oberoi +49 69 5050-7410 United Kingdom [email protected] United Kingdom [email protected] Matthias Fritsch +49 40 3282-2696 Philipp Stumpfegger +49 40 3282-2635 United Kingdom [email protected] Australia, United Kingdom [email protected] Marie-Therese Grübner +49 40 3282-2630 Juliane Willenbruch +49 40 3282-2694 France, Switzerland [email protected] Roadshow/Marketing [email protected]
Oliver Merckel +49 40 3282-2634 Bastian Quast +49 40 3282-2701 Head of Sales Trading [email protected] Sales Trading [email protected] Thekla Struve +49 40 3282-2668 Jörg Treptow +49 40 3262-2658 Dep. Head of Sales Trading [email protected] Sales Trading [email protected] Gudrun Bolsen +49 40 3282-2679 Jan Walter +49 40 3262-2662 Sales Trading [email protected] Sales Trading [email protected]
Carsten Klude +49 40 3282-2572 Dr. Christian Jasperneite +49 40 3282-2439 Macro Research [email protected] Investment Strategy [email protected]
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|---|---|---|---|
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