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SFC Energy AG — Earnings Release 2015
Nov 5, 2015
388_rns_2015-11-05_1803783f-c092-4add-b63c-f11d095b33b0.pdf
Earnings Release
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SFC Energy
(CDAX, Industrial Goods & Services)
| Buy EUR 6.40 |
Value Indicators: EUR |
Share data: | Description: | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF: | 6.40 | Bloomberg: | F3C GR | Solutions for off-grid and stationary power generation + distribution |
|||
| FCF-Value Potential 16e: | 3.60 | Reuters: | F3CG | ||||
| ISIN: | DE0007568578 | ||||||
| Market Snapshot: | EUR m | Shareholders: | Risk Profile (WRe): | 2015e | |||
| Market cap: | 44.3 | Freefloat | 52.9 % | Beta: | 1.6 | ||
| Price | EUR 5.14 | No. of shares (m): | 8.6 | HPE | 24.1 % | Price / Book: | 1.9 x |
| Upside | 24.5 % | EV: | 44.4 | Havensight | 9.6 % | Equity Ratio: | 53 % |
| Freefloat MC: | 23.4 | Conduit Ventures | 9.5 % | ||||
| Ø Trad. Vol. (30d): | 16.30 th | DWS (in freefloat) | 6.8 % |
Preview: Should confirm lower end of guidance
Tuesday, November 10: Figures Q3 2015
| Expected Figures Q3/2015: | Comment on Figures: | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY End: 31.12. in EUR m |
Q3 15e |
Q3 14 |
yoy | 9M 15e |
9M 14 |
yoy | ! Slight yoy sales growth expected, mostly driven by larger defence contract |
||
| Sales | 11.6 | 11.2 | 4 % | 36.4 | 37.3 | -2 % | ! Adj. EBITDA should have remained slightly in the red, but above last | ||
| EBITDA adj. | -0.2 | -0.7 | n.a. | -2.2 | -1.2 | n.a. | year's level | ||
| EBIT adj. | -0.5 | -1.1 | n.a. | -3.2 | -2.5 | n.a. | |||
| EBIT | -1.2 | -1.7 | n.a. | -5.2 | -4.2 | n.a. | |||
! SFC has scheduled to release Q3 results on November 10.
! The operating development should have slightly improved yoy, driven by a larger contract in the defence business.
! SFC is expected to reiterate the full-year outlook. However, in light of the weak oil price environment we expect the company to remain at the lower end of the guidance range.
| Rel. Performance vs CDAX: | |
|---|---|
| 1 month: | -9.7 % |
| 6 months: | 5.0 % |
| Year to date: | -18.5 % |
| Trailing 12 months: | -18.7 % |
10.11.15 Q3
| FY End: 31.12. in EUR m |
CAGR (14-16e) |
2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015e | 2016e |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 7.8 % | 13.3 | 15.4 | 31.3 | 32.4 | 53.6 | 55.0 | 62.3 |
| Change Sales yoy | 14.1 % | 15.7 % | 102.6 % | 3.7 % | 65.4 % | 2.6 % | 13.3 % | |
| Gross profit margin | 30.3 % | 34.8 % | 40.8 % | 32.8 % | 29.2 % | 30.5 % | 31.3 % | |
| EBITDA | - | -3.5 | -4.6 | 0.7 | -4.5 | -1.2 | -1.2 | 3.0 |
| Margin | -26.2 % | -30.1 % | 2.3 % | -13.8 % | -2.2 % | -2.2 % | 4.8 % | |
| EBIT | - | -4.5 | -6.6 | -0.5 | -8.8 | -4.3 | -3.9 | 0.2 |
| EBIT adj. | -4.5 | -4.1 | -1.0 | -4.2 | -1.2 | -1.2 | 1.3 | |
| Margin | - | -33.8 % | -26.8 % | -3.2 % | -12.9 % | -2.3 % | -2.2 % | 2.0 % |
| Net income | - | -4.1 | -6.2 | -0.4 | -8.9 | -4.8 | -4.5 | -0.4 |
| EPS | - | -0.58 | -0.87 | -0.06 | -1.16 | -0.60 | -0.52 | -0.05 |
| EPS adj. | - | -0.58 | -0.52 | -0.12 | -0.56 | -0.22 | -0.20 | 0.08 |
| FCFPS | -0.91 | -0.82 | 0.08 | -1.07 | -0.55 | -0.03 | 0.16 | |
| FCF / Market cap | -16.4 % | -18.3 % | 1.4 % | -21.8 % | -11.0 % | -0.6 % | 3.1 % | |
| EV / Sales | n.a. | 0.7 x | 0.6 x | 1.1 x | 0.7 x | 0.8 x | 0.7 x | |
| EV / EBITDA | n.a. | n.a. | 25.1 x | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | 14.5 x | |
| EV / EBIT adj. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | 34.1 x | |
| P / E | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | |
| P / E adj. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | 64.3 x | |
| FCF Yield Potential | n.a. | -52.9 % | 0.3 % | -1.4 % | 1.8 % | 0.9 % | 6.5 % | |
| Net Debt | -34.1 | -22.0 | -22.5 | -2.9 | -1.2 | 0.1 | -1.2 | |
| ROCE (NOPAT) | -70.2 % | -59.1 % | -3.5 % | -43.9 % | -17.2 % | -16.6 % | 4.0 % | |
| Guidance: | 2015: Sales EUR 55 - 65m; Improvement of underlying earnings |
Company events:
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SOURCES
All data and consensus estimates have been obtained from FactSet except where stated otherwise.
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| Company | Disclosure | Link to the historical price targets and rating changes (last 12 months) |
|---|---|---|
| SFC Energy | 3, 4, 5 | http://www.mmwarburg.com/disclaimer/disclaimer_en/DE0007568578.htm |
INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATION
Investment recommendation: expected direction of the share price development of the financial instrument up to the given price target in the opinion of the analyst who covers this financial instrument.
| -B- | Buy: | The price of the analysed financial instrument is expected to rise over the next 12 months. | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -H- | Hold: | The price of the analysed financial instrument is expected to remain mostly flat over the next 12 months. |
|||
| -S- | Sell: | The price of the analysed financial instrument is expected to fall over the next 12 months. | |||
| "-" | Rating suspended: | The available information currently does not permit an evaluation of the company. |
WARBURG RESEARCH GMBH – RESEARCH UNIVERSE BY RATING
| Rating | Number of stocks | % of Universe |
|---|---|---|
| Buy | 115 | 63 |
| Hold | 57 | 31 |
| Sell | 6 | 3 |
| Rating suspended | 5 | 3 |
| Total | 183 | 100 |
WARBURG RESEARCH GMBH – ANALYSED RESEARCH UNIVERSE BY RATING D
D taking into account only those companies which were provided with major investment banking services in the last twelve months.
| Rating | Number of stocks | % of Universe |
|---|---|---|
| Buy | 21 | 72 |
| Hold | 5 | 17 |
| Sell | 2 | 7 |
| Rating suspended | 1 | 3 |
| Total | 29 | 100 |
PRICE AND RATING HISTORY SFC ENERGY AS OF 05.11.2015
The chart has markings if Warburg Research GmbH changed its rating in the last 12 months. Every marking represents the date and closing price on the day of the rating change.
SFC Energy
EQUITIES
Roland Rapelius +49 40 3282-2673 Head of Equities [email protected]
RESEARCH
Head of Research [email protected] Technology, Telco, Internet [email protected] Lucas Boventer +49 40 309537-290 Jochen Reichert +49 40 309537-130 Renewables, Internet, Media [email protected] Telco, Internet, Media [email protected] Christian Cohrs +49 40 309537-175 J. Moritz Rieser +49 40 309537-260 Engineering, Logistics [email protected] Real Estate [email protected] Felix Ellmann +49 40 309537-120 Arash Roshan Zamir +49 40 309537-155 Software, IT [email protected] Engineering, Logistics [email protected] Jörg Philipp Frey +49 40 309537-258 Malte Schaumann +49 40 309537-170 Retail, Consumer Goods [email protected] Technology [email protected] Harald Hof +49 40 309537-125 Oliver Schwarz +49 40 309537-250 Medtech [email protected] Chemicals, Agriculture [email protected] Ulrich Huwald +49 40 309537-255 Marc-René Tonn +49 40 309537-259 Health Care, Pharma [email protected] Automobiles, Car Suppliers [email protected] Thilo Kleibauer +49 40 309537-257 Björn Voss +49 40 309537-254 Retail, Consumer Goods [email protected] Steel, Car Suppliers [email protected] Eggert Kuls +49 40 309537-256 Andreas Wolf +49 40 309537-140 Engineering [email protected] Software, IT [email protected] Andreas Pläsier +49 40 309537-246
Banks, Financial Services [email protected]
INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY SALES USA [email protected] Roadshow/Marketing [email protected] Matthias Fritsch +49 40 3282-2696
SALES TRADING
MACRO RESEARCH
Matthias Thiel +49 40 3282-2401
United Kingdom [email protected]
Henner Rüschmeier +49 40 309537-270 Malte Räther +49 40 309537-185
Lyubka Bogdanova +49 69 5050-7411 Fabian Roggemann +49 40 3282-2667 United Kingdom, Australia [email protected] USA [email protected] Jens Buchmüller +49 69 5050-7415 Sanjay Oberoi +49 69 5050-7410 Scandinavia, Austria [email protected] United Kingdom [email protected] Paul Dontenwill +49 40 3282-2666 Juliane Willenbruch +49 40 3282-2694
Oliver Merckel +49 40 3282-2634 Bastian Quast +49 40 3282-2701 Head of Sales Trading [email protected] Sales Trading [email protected] Gudrun Bolsen +49 40 3282-2679 Jörg Treptow +49 40 3262-2658 Sales Trading [email protected] Sales Trading [email protected] Michael Ilgenstein +49 40 3282-2700 Jan Walter +49 40 3262-2662 Sales Trading [email protected] Sales Trading [email protected]
Carsten Klude +49 40 3282-2572 Dr. Christian Jasperneite +49 40 3282-2439 Macro Research [email protected] Investment Strategy [email protected]
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