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SFC Energy AG — Earnings Release 2011
Jan 26, 2012
388_rns_2012-01-26_053b5a0e-68b5-4e75-81bd-3294ba8140dd.pdf
Earnings Release
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| Buy | (old: Buy) |
|---|---|
| PT EUR 5.70 | (old: 5.70) |
| Price | EUR 4.00 |
| Bloomberg | F3C GR |
| Reuters | F3CG |
| Sector | Industrial Goods & Services |
Globally leading provider of commercial DMFC fuel cells for the mobile electricity supply in the leisure, industrial and defence segments.
Change 2011E 2012E 2013E old Δ% old Δ% old Δ% Sales 15.1 2.0 27.8 0 33.6 0 EBIT -6.5 n.m. -1.7 0 -0.3 0 EPS -0.87 0 -0.22 0 -0.04 0
Analysis: Warburg Research Date of publication: 26.01.2012
Malte Schaumann +49 (0)40-309537-170
Calendar:
Analyst:
Outlook for EBITDA break even in H2 confirmed
SFC has released preliminary figures for FY 2011 which are line with expectations. A conference call was held at 10 a.m.
| SFC Energy - Q4 2011 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Figures in EUR m | Q4/11 | Q4/11e | Q4/10 | yoy | 2011 | 2010 | yoy |
| Sales | 4.9 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 10.0% | 15.4 | 13.3 | 15.6% |
| EBIT | -2.5 | -2.5 | -0.4 | 580.7% | -6.6 | -4.5 | 45.4% |
| margin | -52.0% | -54.3% | -8.4% | -42.6% | -33.8% | ||
| EBIT adjusted | -0.4 | -0.5 | -0.4 | n.m. | -4.0 | -4.5 | n.m. |
| margin | -8.3% | -10.9% | -8.4% | -26.1% | -33.8% |
Sources: SFC Energy (historical data), Warburg Research (estimates)
Revenues include EUR 0.9m from first contributions from the acquired PBF (consolidated since December 2011). SFC reached an organic revenue growth of ca. 9%. This however does not reflect the strong sales growth of 25-30% in the defence and industrial segments, which now account for ca. 55% of the group's sales. In contrast, sales in the leisure segment have declined by ca. 8% due to cleaning of inventories at customers. However, Q4 sales are expected to have been roughly flat again yoy.
As expected, Q4 earnings were impacted by one-offs amounting to EUR 2.5m for personnel measures, amortisation of development costs and the PBF acquisition amongst others. Hence, the adjusted EBIT improved from EUR -4.5m in 2010 to EUR -4.0m in 2011. Due to the typically strong seasonality at the end of the year, Q4 EBITDA is expected to have been only marginally below the break even level. The CFO confirmed that the cash position reached EUR 22-23m at the end of the year, which implies that the operating cash flow was close to the break even as well.
The outlook was confirmed: SFC expects to reach the break even at EBITDA level in H2 2012, which underpins our current assumptions. WR expects a growth of ca. 10% in SFC's core business because of further rising demand in industrial markets and the return to positive growth rates in the leisure segment after the introduction of the new generation of EFOY fuel cells and the absence of negative effects from inventory depletions. This and profit contributions from PBF (ca. 10% EBIT margin) are expected to be the main drivers for the improvement in earnings quality.
2011 is expected to have been the last year with significant losses at EBITDA/EBIT level. The gradual move to a higher earnings quality should trigger a rise in investor's attention. PT of EUR 5.70 and the Buy recommendation remain unchanged.
| Fiscal year ending: 31.12. in EUR m |
2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011E | 2012E | 2013E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 14.4 | 14.6 | 11.7 | 13.3 | 15.4 | 27.8 | 33.6 |
| Change Sales yoy | 104.3 % | 1.4 % | -19.7 % | 14.1 % | 15.6 % | 80.5 % | 20.9 % |
| Gross balance | 2.5 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 5.4 | 11.4 | 14.2 |
| Gross margin | 17.4 % | 18.5 % | 27.3 % | 30.3 % | 35.0 % | 41.0 % | 42.3 % |
| EBITDA | -4.0 | -3.7 | -3.6 | -3.5 | -4.2 | -0.2 | 1.3 |
| EBITDA-margin | -27.6 % | -25.4 % | -30.8 % | -26.2 % | -27.0 % | -0.6 % | 4.0 % |
| EBIT | -4.7 | -4.5 | -4.5 | -4.5 | -6.6 | -1.7 | -0.3 |
| EBIT-margin | -32.8 % | -30.9 % | -38.6 % | -33.8 % | -42.6 % | -6.0 % | -0.7 % |
| Net income | -2.5 | -2.4 | -3.8 | -4.1 | -6.2 | -1.6 | -0.3 |
| EPS | -0.36 | -0.33 | -0.53 | -0.58 | -0.87 | -0.22 | -0.04 |
| Free Cash Flow per share | -0.47 | -0.68 | -0.70 | -0.91 | -1.17 | -0.22 | -0.17 |
| Dividend | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dividend Yield | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| EV/Sales | n.m. | n.m. | n.m. | n.m. | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | n.m. | n.m. | n.m. | n.m. | n.m. | n.m. | 8.3 |
| EV/EBIT | n.m. | n.m. | n.m. | n.m. | n.m. | n.m. | n.m. |
| PER | n.m. | n.m. | n.m. | n.m. | n.m. | n.m. | n.m. |
| ROCE | -14.4 % | -8.6 % | -9.4 % | -10.3 % | -16.5 % | -4.5 % | -0.7 % |
| Adj. Free Cash Flow Yield | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | 5.8 % |
Source: SFC Energy
Source: SFC Energy
Sales by segments 2010
Source: SFC Energy
Source: SFC Energy
Company background
SFC is the first company to have brought fuel cells to the market from the beginning of the development stage. Up to now, the major part of the companies in the fuel cell sector failed to do so. SFC was able to sell more than 14,000 Efoy fuel cells so far.
With its products (direct methanol fuel cells) the company addresses the leisure, industry and defence markets. While the leisure and industry segments focus on the sale of commercial products, the defence segment mainly generates sales from development collaborations, prototypes and the first small series.
Development, production and sale are located in Brunnthal, the company's head office near Munich. SFC presently has around 100 employees.
Competitive quality
The DMCF fuel cell technology focused by SFC is superior to the other fuel cell technologies in mobile areas of application with low to medium output standards, particularly compared to hydrogen-based systems. SFC's products are thus mainly competing with conventional technologies. The products are not sold on price, but rather on the specific advantages offered by the fuel cell technology in the relevant fields of application.
The leisure and industry markets focus on the completely network-independent energy supply independent of weather conditions. As a substitute for energy storage on the basis of batteries, the operating expenses (especially maintenance costs) are clearly reduced in the industrial environment. In the area of defence fuel cells allow for a weight reduction of approx. 80%
The most important barriers to market entry are the technological lead, secured by a large patent portfolio, and the established sales structures (leisure market).
A solid balance sheet with a high cash position enables a sufficient scaling of the fuel cell technology and allows the company to address new applications in order to reach break-even in the next 2-3 years.
Consolidated Profit & Loss SFC Energy
| in EUR m | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011E | 2012E | 2013E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 14.4 | 14.6 | 11.7 | 13.3 | 15.4 | 27.8 | 33.6 |
| Cost of sales | 11.8 | 11.9 | 8.5 | 9.3 | 10.0 | 16.4 | 19.4 |
| Gross balance | 2.5 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 5.4 | 11.4 | 14.2 |
| Research and development | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 2.7 |
| Sales and marketing | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 7.1 | 7.7 |
| General and administration | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 4.0 |
| Other operating income/expenses | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | -2.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Unfrequent items | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| EBITDA | -4.0 | -3.7 | -3.6 | -3.5 | -4.2 | -0.2 | 1.3 |
| Depreciation of fixed assets | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| EBITA | -4.4 | -4.2 | -4.0 | -3.9 | -4.8 | -1.3 | 0.1 |
| Amortisation of intangible fixed assets | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Impairment charges and amortisation of goodwill | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| EBIT | -4.7 | -4.5 | -4.5 | -4.5 | -6.6 | -1.7 | -0.3 |
| Interest income | 2.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Interest expenses | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Financial result | 2.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Recurring pretax income from cont. operations | -2.5 | -2.4 | -3.8 | -4.1 | -6.2 | -1.3 | 0.1 |
| Extraordinary income/loss | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| EBT | -2.5 | -2.4 | -3.8 | -4.1 | -6.2 | -1.3 | 0.1 |
| Taxes total | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Net income from continuing operations | -2.5 | -2.4 | -3.8 | -4.1 | -6.2 | -1.6 | -0.3 |
| Income from discontinued operations (net of tax) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Net income before minorities | -2.5 | -2.4 | -3.8 | -4.1 | -6.2 | -1.6 | -0.3 |
| Minority interest | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Net income | -2.5 | -2.4 | -3.8 | -4.1 | -6.2 | -1.6 | -0.3 |
Sources: SFC Energy (historical data), Warburg Research (forecasts)
Consolidated Profit & Loss SFC Energy
| in % of Sales | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011E | 2012E | 2013E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % |
| Cost of sales | 82.6 % | 81.5 % | 72.7 % | 69.7 % | 65.0 % | 59.0 % | 57.8 % |
| Gross balance | 17.4 % | 18.5 % | 27.3 % | 30.3 % | 35.0 % | 41.0 % | 42.3 % |
| Research and development | 4.4 % | 5.4 % | 12.9 % | 14.2 % | 12.0 % | 8.5 % | 8.0 % |
| Sales and marketing | 30.5 % | 29.5 % | 38.0 % | 35.6 % | 33.0 % | 25.5 % | 23.0 % |
| General and administration | 16.1 % | 14.9 % | 18.2 % | 15.4 % | 17.0 % | 13.0 % | 12.0 % |
| Other operating income/expenses | 0.7 % | 0.3 % | 3.3 % | 1.1 % | -15.6 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
| Unfrequent items | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
| EBITDA | -27.6 % | -25.4 % | -30.8 % | -26.2 % | -27.0 % | -0.6 % | 4.0 % |
| Depreciation of fixed assets | 3.1 % | 3.4 % | 3.8 % | 3.0 % | 3.9 % | 4.0 % | 3.6 % |
| EBITA | -30.7 % | -28.8 % | -34.6 % | -29.2 % | -30.9 % | -4.6 % | 0.4 % |
| Amortisation of intangible fixed assets | 2.1 % | 2.2 % | 3.9 % | 4.7 % | 11.7 % | 1.4 % | 1.2 % |
| Impairment charges and amortisation of goodwill | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
| EBIT | -32.8 % | -30.9 % | -38.6 % | -33.9 % | -42.6 % | -6.0 % | -0.8 % |
| Interest income | 16.8 % | 15.0 % | 6.4 % | 3.1 % | 2.3 % | 1.2 % | 1.0 % |
| Interest expenses | 1.6 % | 0.3 % | 0.2 % | 0.2 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
| Financial result | 15.2 % | 14.8 % | 6.2 % | 2.9 % | 2.3 % | 1.2 % | 1.0 % |
| Recurring pretax income from cont. operations | -17.6 % | -16.2 % | -32.4 % | -31.0 % | -40.3 % | -4.8 % | 0.2 % |
| Extraordinary income/loss | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
| EBT | -17.6 % | -16.2 % | -32.4 % | -31.0 % | -40.3 % | -4.8 % | 0.2 % |
| Taxes total | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.2 % | 1.1 % | 1.0 % |
| Net income from continuing operations | -17.6 % | -16.2 % | -32.4 % | -31.0 % | -40.5 % | -5.9 % | -0.8 % |
| Income from discontinued operations (net of tax) | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
| Net income before minorities | -17.6 % | -16.2 % | -32.4 % | -31.0 % | -40.5 % | -5.9 % | -0.8 % |
| Minority interest | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
| Net income | -17.6 % | -16.2 % | -32.4 % | -31.0 % | -40.5 % | -5.9 % | -0.8 % |
Balance sheet SFC Energy
| in EUR m | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011E | 2012E | 2013E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Assets | |||||||
| Intangible assets | 1.1 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 7.4 |
| thereof other intangible assets | 1.1 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.6 |
| thereof Goodwill | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 4.9 |
| Property, plant and equipment | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.3 |
| Financial assets | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Fixed assets | 1.9 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 5.3 | 9.7 | 10.1 | 11.7 |
| Inventories | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 5.2 |
| Accounts receivable | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 5.8 |
| Other Assets | 1.8 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.2 |
| Liquid assets | 53.0 | 45.6 | 40.6 | 34.1 | 22.0 | 20.4 | 17.8 |
| Current assets | 58.0 | 51.9 | 46.4 | 41.1 | 34.3 | 33.2 | 32.0 |
| Total assets | 59.9 | 54.8 | 50.5 | 46.4 | 44.0 | 43.3 | 43.8 |
| Liabilities and shareholders' equity | |||||||
| Subscribed capital | 7.1 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| Additional paid-in capital | 66.8 | 66.9 | 66.9 | 66.9 | 68.5 | 68.5 | 68.5 |
| Surplus capital | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -6.2 | -7.9 | -8.1 |
| Other equity components | -22.0 | -24.4 | -28.2 | -32.3 | -32.1 | -32.2 | -32.1 |
| Book value | 51.9 | 49.6 | 45.8 | 41.7 | 37.7 | 35.9 | 35.8 |
| Minority Interest | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Total equity | 51.9 | 49.6 | 45.8 | 41.7 | 37.7 | 35.9 | 35.8 |
| Provision for pensions and similar obligations | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Provisions | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Financial liabilities | 2.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Accounts payable | 1.3 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 4.1 |
| Other liabilities | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 2.8 |
| Liabilities | 8.0 | 5.2 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 6.3 | 7.3 | 8.0 |
| Total liabilities and shareholders' equity | 59.9 | 54.8 | 50.5 | 46.4 | 44.0 | 43.3 | 43.8 |
Sources: SFC Energy (historical data), Warburg Research (forecasts)
Balance sheet SFC Energy
| in % of Balance Sheet Total | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011E | 2012E | 2013E | |
| Assets | |||||||
| Intangible assets | 1.8 % | 3.3 % | 4.8 % | 6.4 % | 12.4 % | 13.3 % | 16.9 % |
| thereof other intangible assets | 1.8 % | 3.3 % | 4.8 % | 6.4 % | 4.4 % | 5.2 % | 5.8 % |
| thereof Goodwill | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 8.0 % | 8.1 % | 11.1 % |
| Property, plant and equipment | 1.4 % | 2.1 % | 3.3 % | 5.0 % | 9.6 % | 10.0 % | 9.9 % |
| Financial assets | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
| Fixed assets | 3.2 % | 5.4 % | 8.1 % | 11.4 % | 22.0 % | 23.3 % | 26.8 % |
| Inventories | 2.1 % | 2.1 % | 2.6 % | 4.2 % | 10.5 % | 10.6 % | 11.9 % |
| Accounts receivable | 3.3 % | 4.6 % | 4.4 % | 5.9 % | 10.0 % | 11.6 % | 13.2 % |
| Other Assets | 3.0 % | 4.7 % | 4.4 % | 4.9 % | 7.4 % | 7.5 % | 7.4 % |
| Liquid assets | 88.5 % | 83.2 % | 80.4 % | 73.6 % | 50.1 % | 47.1 % | 40.6 % |
| Current assets | 96.9 % | 94.7 % | 91.8 % | 88.5 % | 77.9 % | 76.8 % | 73.1 % |
| Total assets | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % |
| Liabilities and shareholders' equity | |||||||
| Subscribed capital | 11.9 % | 13.1 % | 14.2 % | 15.4 % | 17.1 % | 17.3 % | 17.1 % |
| Additional paid-in capital | 111.6 % | 122.0 % | 132.4 % | 144.1 % | 155.7 % | 158.3 % | 156.5 % |
| Surplus capital | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | -14.2 % | -18.2 % | -18.6 % |
| Other equity components | -36.8 % | -44.5 % | -55.8 % | -69.6 % | -73.0 % | -74.4 % | -73.3 % |
| Book value | 86.7 % | 90.6 % | 90.8 % | 89.9 % | 85.6 % | 83.0 % | 81.7 % |
| Minority Interest | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
| Total equity | 86.7 % | 90.6 % | 90.8 % | 89.9 % | 85.6 % | 83.0 % | 81.7 % |
| Provision for pensions and similar obligations | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
| Provisions | 1.1 % | 1.4 % | 1.7 % | 2.3 % | 1.9 % | 2.0 % | 1.9 % |
| Financial liabilities | 4.4 % | 0.2 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.7 % | 0.7 % | 0.7 % |
| Accounts payable | 2.2 % | 3.7 % | 3.9 % | 3.0 % | 6.6 % | 7.9 % | 9.4 % |
| Other liabilities | 5.7 % | 4.1 % | 3.6 % | 4.7 % | 5.2 % | 6.4 % | 6.4 % |
| Liabilities | 13.4 % | 9.5 % | 9.1 % | 10.0 % | 14.4 % | 17.0 % | 18.4 % |
| Total liabilities and shareholders' equity | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % |
Statement of Cash Flows SFC Energy
| in EUR m | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011E | 2012E | 2013E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net income | -2.5 | -2.4 | -3.8 | -4.1 | -6.2 | -1.6 | -0.3 |
| Depreciation of fixed assets | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Amortisation of goodwill | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Amortisation of intangible assets | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Increase/decrease in long-term provisions | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Other costs affecting income / expenses | -1.5 | -1.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Cash Flow | -3.2 | -2.8 | -2.9 | -2.6 | -3.8 | -0.1 | 1.3 |
| Increase / decrease in inventory | -0.3 | 0.1 | -0.2 | -0.6 | -2.7 | 0.0 | -0.6 |
| Increase / decrease in accounts receivable | -0.4 | -0.4 | 0.2 | -0.5 | -1.7 | -0.6 | -0.8 |
| Increase / decrease in accounts payable | -0.1 | 0.8 | -0.1 | -0.6 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| Increase / decrease in other working capital positions | 1.4 | -0.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Increase / decrease in working capital | 0.5 | -0.2 | -0.1 | -1.7 | -2.7 | 0.4 | -0.7 |
| Cash flow from operating activities | -2.7 | -3.0 | -3.0 | -4.3 | -6.6 | 0.3 | 0.6 |
| CAPEX | -0.6 | -1.9 | -2.0 | -2.2 | -1.8 | -1.9 | -1.9 |
| Payments for acquisitions | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -6.0 | 0.0 | -1.4 |
| Financial investments | 4.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Income from asset disposals | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Cash flow from investing activities | 3.6 | -1.9 | -1.9 | -2.2 | -7.8 | -1.9 | -3.3 |
| Change in financial liabilities | -1.8 | -2.5 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Dividends paid | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Purchase of own shares | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Capital measures | 53.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Others | -5.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Cash flow from financing activities | 45.8 | -2.5 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Change in liquid funds | 46.7 | -7.4 | -5.0 | -6.5 | -12.1 | -1.6 | -2.6 |
| Effects of exchange rate changes on cash | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Liquid assets at end of period | 52.9 | 45.6 | 40.6 | 34.1 | 22.0 | 20.4 | 17.8 |
Financial Ratios SFC Energy 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E Operational Efficiency Total Operating Costs / Sales 50.2 % 49.4 % 65.9 % 64.2 % 77.6 % 47.0 % 43.0 % Sales per Employee 170,845 141,299 111,302 133,291 158,814 150,284 176,974 EBITDA per Employee -47,143 -35,876 -34,326 -34,919 -42,880 -909 7,094 EBIT-margin -32.8 % -30.9 % -38.6 % -33.8 % -42.6 % -6.0 % -0.7 % EBITDA / Operating Assets -221.5 % -145.7 % -111.3 % -62.4 % -40.6 % -1.7 % 12.7 % ROA -132.3 % -79.3 % -92.5 % -78.0 % -64.4 % -16.3 % -2.3 % Efficiency of Capital Employment Plant Turnover 17.3 12.7 7.0 5.7 3.6 6.4 7.8 Operating Assets Turnover 8.0 5.7 3.6 2.4 1.5 2.8 3.2 Capital Employed Turnover 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.9 Return on Capital ROCE -14.4 % -8.6 % -9.4 % -10.3 % -16.5 % -4.5 % -0.7 % EBITDA / Avg. Capital Employed -12.1 % -7.1 % -7.5 % -8.0 % -10.4 % -0.5 % 3.7 % ROE -4.9 % -4.7 % -8.3 % -9.9 % -16.6 % -4.6 % -0.7 % Net Profit / Avg. Equity -8.8 % -4.6 % -7.9 % -9.4 % -15.7 % -4.5 % -0.7 % Recurring Net Profit / Avg. Equity -8.8 % -4.6 % -7.9 % -9.4 % -15.7 % -4.5 % -0.7 % ROIC -4.5 % -4.6 % -8.0 % -9.4 % -15.7 % -4.3 % -0.7 % Solvency Net Debt -50.4 -45.5 -40.6 -34.1 -21.8 -20.1 -17.5 Net Gearing -97.0 % -91.7 % -88.5 % -81.8 % -57.7 % -55.9 % -48.9 % Book Value of Equity / Book Value of Debt 1973.1 % 42063.3 % n.a. n.a. 12560.6 % 11979.2 % 11923.7 % Current ratio 7.9 11.7 12.3 11.5 6.2 5.1 4.5 Acid Test Ratio 7.1 9.7 9.8 8.5 4.7 3.9 3.3 EBITDA / Interest Paid 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. Interest Cover n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Cash Flow Free Cash Flow -3.3 -4.8 -5.0 -6.5 -8.4 -1.6 -1.3 Free Cash Flow / Sales -23.3 % -33.3 % -42.9 % -48.8 % -54.4 % -5.9 % -3.8 % Adj. Free Cash Flow -4.4 -4.2 -4.3 -4.2 -4.9 -0.9 0.6 Adj. Free Cash Flow / Sales -32.4 % -29.1 % -37.0 % -31.6 % -31.7 % -4.2 % 0.9 % Free Cash Flow / Net Profit 132.3 % 205.5 % 132.6 % 157.8 % 134.3 % 100.0 % 475.3 % Interest Received / Avg. Cash 7.8 % 4.4 % 1.7 % 1.1 % 1.2 % 1.6 % 1.7 % Interest Paid / Avg. Debt 5.8 % 2.9 % 35.6 % n.a. 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Dividend Payout Ratio 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Fund Management Investment ratio -25.1 % 12.8 % 17.5 % 16.7 % 11.7 % 6.8 % 5.7 % Maint. Capex / Sales 3.2 % 3.4 % 6.0 % 5.3 % 4.5 % 2.5 % 2.1 % Capex / Dep -480.9 % 231.7 % 226.8 % 217.8 % 75.0 % 126.7 % 118.8 % Avg. Working Capital / Sales 5.8 % 8.1 % 12.6 % 18.1 % 30.1 % 20.9 % 17.7 % Trade Creditors / Trade Debtors 149.6 % 123.1 % 112.7 % 196.0 % 151.7 % 147.1 % 141.5 % Inventory turnover (days) 32.6 28.9 41.5 53.0 73.0 60.8 56.2 Receivables collection period (DSOs) 50.9 63.3 68.9 74.3 68.0 65.0 63.0 Payables collection period (days) 34.0 51.4 61.2 37.9 45.0 45.0 45.0 Cash conversion cycle (days) 24.4 34.9 48.7 89.3 93.6 73.0 67.6 Valuation Dividend Yield n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. P/B 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 EV/sales n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. 0.4 0.3 0.3 EV/EBITDA n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. 8.3 EV/EBIT n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. EV/FCF n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. P/E n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. P/CF neg, neg, neg, neg, neg, neg, 21.5 Adj. Free Cash Flow Yield n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 5.8 %
| Free Cash Flow Yield - SFC Energy | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Figures in EUR m | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011e | 2012e | 2013e | |
| Net Income | -2.5 | -2.4 | -3.8 | -4.1 | -6.2 | -1.6 | -0.3 | |
| + Depreciation + Amortisation | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | |
| - Net Interest Income | 2.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | |
| + Taxes | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | |
| - Maintenance Capex | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | |
| + Others | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| = Adjusted Free Cash Flow | -4.4 | -4.2 | -4.3 | -4.2 | -4.9 | -0.9 | 0.6 | |
| Adjusted Free Cash Flow Yield | 80.0% | 76.0% | 78.0% | 76.0% | -70.8% | -10.2% | 5.8% | |
| Hurdle rate | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | |
| = Enterprise Value | -5.5 | -5.5 | -5.5 | -5.5 | 6.9 | 8.5 | 11.1 | |
| = Fair Enterprise Value | - | - | - | - | - | - | 6.5 | |
| - Net Debt (Cash) | -34.1 | -34.1 | -34.1 | -34.1 | -21.7 | -20.1 | -17.5 | |
| - Pension Liabilities | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| - Others | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| = Fair Market Capitalisation | - | - | - | - | - | - | 24.0 | |
| No. of shares (m) | 7.2 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 7.2 | |
| = Fair value per share (EUR) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 3.35 | |
| premium (-) / discount (+) in % | - | - | - | - | - | - | -16.2% | |
| Sensitivity Fair value per Share (EUR) | ||||||||
| 13.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | 3.14 | |
| 12.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | 3.20 | |
| 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | 3.27 | |
| Hurdle rate | 10.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | 3.35 |
| 9.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | 3.45 | |
| 8.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | 3.58 | |
| 7.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | 3.74 |
| DCF Model - SFC Energy | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Figures in EUR m | 2011e | 2012e | 2013e | 2014e | 2015e | 2016e | 2017e | 2018e | 2019e | 2020e | 2021e | 2022e | 2023e | 2024e |
| Sales | 15.4 | 27.8 | 33.6 | 38.7 | 42.5 | 45.7 | 49.2 | 51.6 | 54.2 | 56.9 | 58.6 | 60.4 | 61.9 | 63.4 |
| Change | 15.6% | 80.5% | 20.9% | 15.0% | 10.0% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
| EBIT EBIT-Margin |
-6.6 -42.6% |
-1.7 -6.0% |
-0.3 -0.8% |
1.5 4.0% |
2.6 6.0% |
3.7 8.0% |
4.7 9.5% |
4.9 9.5% |
5.1 9.5% |
5.4 9.5% |
5.6 9.5% |
5.7 9.5% |
5.9 9.5% |
6.0 9.5% |
| Tax rate | -0.5% | -18.3% -136.5% | 23.1% | 15.4% | 16.0% | 15.5% | 15.6% | 15.7% | 15.8% | 15.8% | 15.9% | 15.9% | 30.0% | |
| NOPAT | -6.6 | -2.0 | -0.6 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.2 |
| Depreciation in % of Sales |
2.4 15.6% |
1.5 5.4% |
1.6 4.8% |
1.7 4.5% |
2.1 5.0% |
2.5 5.5% |
2.5 5.0% |
2.6 5.0% |
2.7 5.0% |
2.4 4.3% |
2.3 4.0% |
2.4 4.0% |
2.5 4.0% |
2.5 4.0% |
| Change in Liquidity from - Working Capital - Capex Capex in % of Sales |
-2.7 -1.8 11.7% |
0.4 -1.9 6.8% |
-0.7 -1.9 5.7% |
-0.3 -2.5 6.5% |
-0.2 -2.6 6.0% |
-0.1 -2.5 5.5% |
-0.5 -2.5 5.0% |
-0.4 -2.6 5.0% |
-0.4 -2.4 4.5% |
-0.4 -2.4 4.3% |
-0.3 -2.3 4.0% |
-0.3 -2.4 4.0% |
-0.2 -2.5 4.0% |
-0.2 -2.5 4.0% |
| Other | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Free Cash Flow (WACC-Model) |
-8.7 | -2.0 | -1.6 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.0 |
| Model parameter | Valuation (mln) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt ratio | 0.00% | Beta | 1.80 | Present values 2024e | 1.5 |
| Costs of Debt | n.a. | WACC | 13.00% | Terminal Value | 7.7 |
| Market return | 9.00% | Liabilities | 0.0 | ||
| Model parameter | Valuation (mln) | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt ratio | 0.00% | Beta | 1.80 | Present values 2024e | 1.5 | |||||
| Costs of Debt | n.a. | WACC | 13.00% | Terminal Value | 7.7 | |||||
| Market return | 9.00% | Liabilities | 0.0 | |||||||
| Risk free rate | 4.00% | Terminal Growth | 2.50% | Liquidity | 33.3 | No. of shares (mln) | 7.50 | |||
| Equity Value | 42.6 | Value per share (EUR) | 5.68 | |||||||
Sensitivity Value per Share (EUR)
| Terminal Growth | Delta EBIT-margin | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WACC | 1.75% | 2.00% | 2.25% | 2.50% | 2.75% | 3.00% | 3.25% | WACC | -1.5 pp | -1.0 pp | -0.5 pp | 0.0 | +0.5 pp | +1.0 pp | +1.5 pp |
| 14.00% | 5.32 | 5.34 | 5.36 | 5.37 | 5.39 | 5.41 | 5.43 | 14.00% | 4.68 | 4.91 | 5.14 | 5.37 | 5.61 | 5.84 | 6.07 |
| 13.50% | 5.46 | 5.48 | 5.50 | 5.52 | 5.54 | 5.57 | 5.59 | 13.50% | 4.80 | 5.04 | 5.28 | 5.52 | 5.76 | 6.00 | 6.25 |
| 13.25% | 5.54 | 5.56 | 5.58 | 5.60 | 5.62 | 5.65 | 5.67 | 13.25% | 4.86 | 5.11 | 5.35 | 5.60 | 5.85 | 6.09 | 6.34 |
| 13.00% | 5.61 | 5.64 | 5.66 | 5.68 | 5.71 | 5.74 | 5.76 | 13.00% | 4.93 | 5.18 | 5.43 | 5.68 | 5.93 | 6.19 | 6.44 |
| 12.75% | 5.70 | 5.72 | 5.74 | 5.77 | 5.80 | 5.83 | 5.86 | 12.75% | 5.00 | 5.26 | 5.51 | 5.77 | 6.03 | 6.28 | 6.54 |
| 12.50% | 5.78 | 5.81 | 5.83 | 5.86 | 5.89 | 5.92 | 5.96 | 12.50% | 5.08 | 5.34 | 5.60 | 5.86 | 6.12 | 6.39 | 6.65 |
| 12.00% | 5.97 | 6.00 | 6.03 | 6.06 | 6.10 | 6.13 | 6.17 | 12.00% | 5.24 | 5.51 | 5.79 | 6.06 | 6.33 | 6.61 | 6.88 |
Source: Warburg Research
§ §
§ §
Free Cash Flow Generation - SFC Energy Working Capital - SFC Energy
§ § Free cash flow burdened by CAPEX in addition to negative EBIT Increasing Working Capital with growing sales volume expected
Operating Leverage - SFC Energy ROCE Development - SFC Energy
§ § A still low sales base leads to higher cost ratios High Capital Employed after IPO in 2007
CAPEX and Cash Flow - SFC Energy Balance Sheet Quality - SFC Energy EUR m
Sources: SFC Energy (historical data), Warburg Research (forecasts) Sources: SFC Energy (historical data), Warburg Research (forecasts)
Operating cash flow stil negative High balace sheet quality due to significant net liquidity
Expansion investments until 2010/11 Net liquidity at the end of 2010 EUR 4.70 per share
Sources: SFC Energy (historical data), Warburg Research (forecasts) Sources: SFC Energy (historical data), Warburg Research (forecasts)
§ Working Capital 2011 increased due to platinum hedge within inventories
Sources: SFC Energy (historical data), Warburg Research (forecasts) Sources: SFC Energy (historical data), Warburg Research (forecasts)
Warburg Research 9
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