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SFC Energy AG — Earnings Release 2012
Jul 20, 2012
388_rns_2012-07-20_b85c8e06-f17d-477d-93d7-f0ed0fbf722f.pdf
Earnings Release
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SFC Energy
(CDAX, Industrial Goods & Services)
| Hold | Value Indicators: | EUR | Share data: | Description: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF: | 5.90 | Bloomberg: | F3C GR | Leading provider of DMFC fuel cells | |||
| FCF-Value Potential: | 4.00 | Reuters: | F3CG | for autark energy supply | |||
| EUR 5.90 | ISIN: | DE0007568578 | |||||
| Market Snapshot: | EUR m | Shareholders: | Risk Profile (WRe): | 2012e | |||
| Market cap: | 50.3 | Freefloat | 51.2 % | Beta: | 1.6 | ||
| Price | EUR 6.70 | No. of shares (m): | 7.5 | HPE | 25.7 % | Price / Book: | 1.4 |
| Downside | -11.9 % | EV: | 29.9 | Havensight | 10.2 % | Net Gearing: | -57 % |
| Freefloat MC (ord.): | 25.7 | Conduit Ventures | 10.2 % | Debt / Equity: | 37 % | ||
| Ø Trad. Vol. (ord./30d): | 40.71 th | DWS (in freefloat) | 4.9 % | Net debt / EBITDA: | -98.4 x |
Preview: Consolidation of PBF and higher gross margin drive earnings improvement
| in € m | Q2 2012e Q2 2011 | ∆ in % 6M 2012e 6M 2011 | ∆ in % | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Group | ||||||
| P&L | ||||||
| Sales | 7.0 | 4.1 | 72.6 | 14.6 | 7.8 | 87.2 |
| Gross profit | 2.9 | 1.4 | 110.1 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 143.4 |
| EBITDA | 0.0 | -0.6 | n.m. | 0.4 | -1.6 | n.m. |
| EBIT | -0.4 | -0.9 | n.m. | -0.1 | -2.2 | n.m. |
| EPS (€) | -0.06 | -0.12 | n.m. | -0.01 | -0.28 | n.m. |
SFC Energy's Q2 revenues are expected to surge strongly in comparison to the previous year's period. However, this can be attributed to the consolidation of the acquired PBF group.
The core business fuel cells is expected to have remained stable. However, WR expects that sales to industrial customers have further increased offsetting somewhat lower sales in the volatile defence area.
Earnings figures are expected to have improved clearly, with EBITDA at break-even level. This is driven by both the profitable PBF business as well as an improving gross margin, which should have jumped by ca. 7pp.
SFC is expected to guide for a weak Q3 due to a typically weak seasonality but to reiterate its forecast of EUR 30m in revenues and a positive EBITDA in H2. Obviously, SFC is already expected to achieve a positive EBITDA in H1, which, however, is likely to turn negative after nine months.
| Rel. Performance vs CDAX: | |
|---|---|
| 1 month: | 12.1 % |
| 6 months: | 67.9 % |
| Year to date: | 58.1 % |
| Trailing 12 months: | 51.0 % |
| Company events: 07/31/12 |
10/31/12 Q3
| FY End: 31.12. | CAGR | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| in EUR m | (11-14e) | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012e | 2013e | 2014e |
| Sales | 34.5 % | 14.6 | 11.7 | 13.3 | 15.4 | 29.9 | 33.6 | 37.5 |
| Change Sales yoy | 1.4 % | -19.7 % | 14.1 % | 15.7 % | 93.7 % | 12.5 % | 11.6 % | |
| Gross profit margin | 18.5 % | 27.3 % | 30.3 % | 34.8 % | 37.8 % | 41.0 % | 41.5 % | |
| EBITDA | - | -3.7 | -3.6 | -3.5 | -4.6 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 2.4 |
| Margin | -25.4 % | -30.8 % | -26.2 % | -30.1 % | 0.7 % | 4.0 % | 6.5 % | |
| EBIT | - | -4.5 | -4.5 | -4.5 | -6.6 | -1.3 | -0.3 | 0.7 |
| Margin | -30.9 % | -38.6 % | -33.8 % | -42.9 % | -4.3 % | -0.7 % | 2.0 % | |
| Net income | - | -2.4 | -3.8 | -4.1 | -6.2 | -1.3 | -0.3 | 0.7 |
| EPS | - | -0.33 | -0.53 | -0.58 | -0.87 | -0.17 | -0.04 | 0.10 |
| EPS adj. | - | -0.33 | -0.53 | -0.58 | -0.87 | -0.17 | -0.04 | 0.10 |
| DPS | - | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | |
| FCFPS | -0.68 | -0.70 | -0.91 | -0.82 | -0.21 | -0.06 | -0.02 | |
| EV / Sales | 1.8 x | 0.5 x | 0.4 x | 0.7 x | 1.0 x | 0.9 x | 0.7 x | |
| EV / EBITDA | -7.0 x | -1.5 x | -1.6 x | -2.2 x | 144.1 x | 23.5 x | 10.7 x | |
| EV / EBIT | -5.7 x | -1.2 x | -1.2 x | -1.5 x | -23.1 x | -125.6 x | 35.7 x | |
| P / E | -30.4 x | -12.1 x | -9.6 x | -5.2 x | -39.4 x | -167.5 x | 59.4 x | |
| P / E adj. | -30.4 x | -12.1 x | -9.6 x | -5.2 x | -39.4 x | -167.5 x | 59.4 x | |
| FCF Yield Potential | -16.3 % | -80.4 % | -74.5 % | -52.9 % | -2.7 % | 1.0 % | 5.3 % | |
| Net Debt | -45.5 | -40.6 | -34.1 | -22.0 | -20.4 | -18.6 | -18.4 | |
| ROE | -4.6 % | -7.9 % | -9.4 % | -15.9 % | -3.5 % | -0.8 % | 2.0 % | |
| ROCE | -8.6 % | -9.4 % | -10.3 % | -16.7 % | -4.6 % | 2.4 % | 1.3 % | |
| Guidance: | EBITDA Break even in H2 | |||||||
Malte Schaumann [email protected] +49 (0)40-309537-170
PR E V I E W Published 26.07.2012 1
LEGAL DISCLAIMER
This research report was prepared by the Warburg Research GmbH, a subsidiary of the M.M.Warburg & CO KGaA and is passed on by the M.M.Warburg & CO KGaA. It contains selected information and does not purport to be complete. The report is based on publicly available information and data ("the information") believed to be accurate and complete. Warburg Research GmbH neither does examine the information to be accurate and complete, nor guarantees its accuracy and completeness. Possible errors or incompleteness of the information do not constitute grounds for liability of M.M.Warburg & CO KGaA or Warburg Research GmbH for damages of any kind whatsoever, and M.M.Warburg & CO KGaA and Warburg Research GmbH are not liable for indirect and/or direct and/or consequential damages. In particular, neither M.M.Warburg & CO KGaA nor Warburg Research GmbH are liable for the statements, plans or other details contained in these analyses concerning the examined companies, their affiliated companies, strategies, economic situations, market and competitive situations, regulatory environment, etc. Although due care has been taken in compiling this research report, it cannot be excluded that it is incomplete or contains errors. M.M.Warburg & CO KGaA and Warburg Research GmbH, their shareholders and employees are not liable for the accuracy and completeness of the statements, estimations and the conclusions derived from the information contained in this document. Provided a research report is being transmitted in connection with an existing contractual relationship, i.e. financial advisory or similar services, the liability of M.M.Warburg & CO KGaA and Warburg Research GmbH shall be restricted to gross negligence and wilful misconduct. In case of failure in essential tasks, M.M.Warburg & CO KGaA and Warburg Research GmbH are liable for normal negligence. In any case, the liability of M.M.Warburg & CO KGaA and Warburg Research GmbH is limited to typical, expectable damages. This research report does not constitute an offer or a solicitation of an offer for the purchase or sale of any security. Partners, directors or employees of M.M.Warburg & CO KGaA, Warburg Research GmbH or affiliated companies may serve in a position of responsibility, i.e. on the board of directors of companies mentioned in the report. Opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice. All rights reserved.
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DISCLOSURE ACCORDING TO § 34B OF THE GERMAN SECURITIES TRADING ACT AND FINANV
The valuation underlying the rating of the company analysed in this report is based on generally accepted and widely used methods of fundamental valuation, such as the DCF model, Free Cash Flow Value Potential, peer group comparison and – where applicable – a sum-of-the-parts model.
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Valuations, ratings and price targets for the companies analysed by Warburg Research GmbH are subject to constant reviews and may therefore change, if any of the fundamental factors underlying these items do change.
All share prices given in this equity analysis are closing prices on the date given in the analysis, except where stated otherwise.
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SOURCES
All data and consensus estimates have been obtained from FactSet except where stated otherwise.
Section 34b of the German Securities Trading Act in combination with the FinAnV requires an enterprise preparing a securities analysis to point out possible conflicts of interest with respect to the company that is the subject of the analysis. A conflict of interest is assumed, in particular, when the enterprise preparing the analysis …
| -1- | … or companies affiliated with this enterprise holds 5% or more of the share capital of the analysed company |
|---|---|
| -2- | … or companies affiliated with this enterprise was a member in a consortium which acquired the shares of the analysed company within the last twelve months |
| -3- | … or companies affiliated with this enterprise manages the securities of the analysed company on the basis of an existing contract |
| -4- | … or companies affiliated with this enterprise over the previous 12 months has been providing investment banking services for the analysed company for which a compensation has been or will be paid |
| -5- | … effected an agreement with the analysed company for the preparation of the financial analysis |
| -6- | … or companies affiliated with this enterprise regularly trade in shares or derivatives of the analysed company |
| -7- | … or the analyst responsible for this company has other important financial interests in relation to the analysed company such as e.g. the performance of mandates for the analysed company |
| Company | Disclosure | Link to the historical price targets and rating changes (last 12 months) |
|---|---|---|
| SFC Energy | 5 | http://www.mmwarburg.com/disclaimer/disclaimer_en/DE0007568578.htm |
INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATION
Investment recommendation: expected direction of the share price development of the financial instrument up to the given price target in the opinion of the analyst who covers this financial instrument.
| -B- | Buy: | The price of the analysed financial instrument is expected to rise over the next 12 months. |
|---|---|---|
| -H- | Hold: | The price of the analysed financial instrument is expected to remain mostly flat over the next 12 months. |
| -S- | Sell: | The price of the analysed financial instrument is expected to fall over the next 12 months. |
| "-" | Rating suspended: | The available information currently does not permit an evaluation of the company. |
WARBURG RESEARCH GMBH – RESEARCH UNIVERSE BY RATING
| Rating | Number of stocks | % of Universe |
|---|---|---|
| Buy | 117 | 62 |
| Hold | 59 | 31 |
| Sell | 9 | 5 |
| Rating suspended | 4 | 2 |
| Total | 189 | 100 |
WARBURG RESEARCH GMBH – ANALYSED RESEARCH UNIVERSE BY RATING …
… Looking only at companies for which a disclosure according to § 34b of the Germany Securities Trading Act and the FinAnV has to be made.
| Rating | Number of stocks | % of Universe |
|---|---|---|
| Buy | 107 | 67 |
| Hold | 44 | 28 |
| Sell | 6 | 4 |
| Rating suspended | 3 | 2 |
| Total | 160 | 100 |
PRICE AND RATING HISTORY SFC ENERGY AS OF 26.07.2012
The chart has markings if Warburg Research GmbH changed its rating in the last 12 months. Every marking represents the date and closing price on the day of the rating change.
SFC Energy
RESEARCH
Deputy Head of Equity Sales [email protected] Sales Trading [email protected]
Philipp Stumpfegger +49 40 3282-2635
Retail, Consumer Goods [email protected] Utilities [email protected]
Real Estate [email protected] Chemicals [email protected]
Engineering [email protected] Automobiles, Car Suppliers [email protected]
Scandinavia [email protected] Sales Trading [email protected]
Matthias Fritsch +49 40 3282-2696 Thekla Struve +49 40 3282-2668 United Kingdom [email protected] Sales Trading [email protected]
Michael Kriszun +49 40 3282-2695 Jörg Treptow +49 40 3262-2658 United Kingdom [email protected] Sales Trading [email protected]
Marc Niemann +49 40 3282-2660 Germany [email protected] Support
Dirk Rosenfelder +49 40 3282-2692 Katharina Bruns +49 40 3282-2694 Austria, Switzerland [email protected] Roadshow/Marketing [email protected]
Julian Straube +49 40 3282-2666 Germany [email protected]
Australia [email protected]
SALES SALES TRADING
Head of Equity Sales [email protected] Head of Sales Trading [email protected]
MACRO RESEARCH
Christian Bruns +49 40 309537-253 Henner Rüschmeier +49 40 309537-270 Head of Research [email protected] Head of Research [email protected]
Christian Cohrs +49 40 309537-175 Roland Rapelius +49 40 309537-220 Engineering, Logistics [email protected] Engineering, Logistics [email protected]
Felix Ellmann +49 40 309537-120 Jochen Reichert +49 40 309537-130 Software, IT [email protected] Telco, Internet, Media [email protected]
Jörg Philipp Frey +49 40 309537-258 Christopher Rodler +49 40 309537-290
Ulrich Huwald +49 40 309537-255 Malte Schaumann +49 40 309537-170 Health Care, Pharma [email protected] Technology [email protected]
Thilo Kleibauer +49 40 309537-257 Susanne Schwartze +49 40 309537-155 Retail, Consumer Goods [email protected] Telco, Internet, Media [email protected]
Torsten Klingner +49 40 309537-260 Oliver Schwarz +49 40 309537-250
Eggert Kuls +49 40 309537-256 Marc-René Tonn +49 40 309537-259
Frank Laser +49 40 309537-235 Björn Voss +49 40 309537-254 Construction, Industrials [email protected] Car Suppliers, Steel [email protected]
Andreas Pläsier +49 40 309537-246 Andreas Wolf +49 40 309537-140 Banks, Financial Services [email protected] Software, IT [email protected]
Malte Räther +49 40 309537-185 Stephan Wulf +49 40 309537-150 Technology [email protected] Utilities [email protected]
Holger Nass +49 40 3282-2669 Oliver Merckel +49 40 3282-2634
Klaus Schilling +49 40 3282-2664 Gudrun Bolsen +49 40 3282-2679
Christian Alisch +49 40 3282-2667 Bastian Quast +49 40 3282-2701
Robert Conredel +49 40 3282-2633 Patrick Schepelmann +49 40 3282-2700 Germany [email protected] Sales Trading [email protected]
Carsten Klude +49 40 3282-2572 Macro Research [email protected]
Matthias Thiel +49 40 3282-2401 Macro Research [email protected]
Dr. Christian Jasperneite +49 40 3282-2439 Investment Strategy [email protected]
Our research can be found under:
| Andrea Carstensen Sales Assistance |
+49 40 3282-2632 [email protected] |
Kerstin Muthig Sales Assistance |
+49 40 3282-2703 [email protected] |
|---|---|---|---|
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