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SELECT HARVESTS LIMITED — Investor Presentation 2016
Aug 25, 2016
65792_rns_2016-08-25_61bb49fa-a9c3-4b71-89d4-8fcf6f78639b.pdf
Investor Presentation
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Select Harvests Limited (“ASX:SHV”)
FY16 Results Presentation
26 August 2016
Disclaimer & Basis of Preparation
This presentation is provided for information purposes only and has been prepared using information provided by the company. The information contained in this presentation is not intended to be relied upon as advice to investors and does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular investor. Investors should consider their own individual investment and financial circumstances in relation to any investment decision.
Certain statements contained in this presentation may constitute forward-looking statements or statements about future matters that are based upon information known and assumptions made as of the date of this presentation. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from any future results or performance expressed, predicted or implied by the statements contained in this presentation.
2
Agenda
Overview & Highlights
Results Discussion & Analysis
Market Outlook
SHV Crop Update & Outlook
Appendices
3
FY16 Financial Overview
-
Reported FY16 Net Profit after Tax (NPAT) of $33.8m
-
Underlying FY16 Net Profit after Tax (NPAT) of $27.9m
-
Underlying EBIT $41.3m (FY15 EBIT $89.6m)
-
Food Division EBIT $10.3m (FY15 $6.8m)
-
Operating cash flow $92.9m (FY15 $30.4m)
-
Net Debt $67.3m (including lease liabilities) - Gearing (Net Debt to Equity) 23%
-
Underlying Earnings per Share (EPS) – 38.5 cents per share (FY15 86.8 cps)
-
Dividend - Final Dividend (Franked) 25 cents per share - total FY16 dividend 46 cents per share (FY15 50cps)
-
Record Date: 5 September 2016
-
Payment Date: 30 September 2016
Strong performance & cash generation in challenging conditions – validates SHV’s robust business model
4
Business Overview
-
Business environment challenged - Almond price & currency, negative & volatile.
-
Strong balance sheet underpins growth - Sale & leaseback funding 2,084 acres (844 Ha) planting
-
Growth on track - Almond greenfield planting increased crop by 12% by 2018 & 63% by 2025
-
Cost out and capacity- Project H2E, Project Parboil operational Q1 CY2017
-
Food Division turn around – Both Industrial and Branded strategy creating value
-
Tree Health - improving as high performance orchard program gains traction
Generated cash, invested for productivity & growth during difficult point in the cycle
5
Business Overview
Safety
■ Lost Time Injury Frequency - down 29%
■ Medically Treated Injury Frequency - down 25%
■ Hazard Identification Frequency - up 75%
Sustainability
-
Zero environmental breaches
-
Commissioned first off grid solar power farm hub
Diversity
■ Overall there was a 3% increase in female participation levels, with females representing 30% of the workforce
-
43% of employees are from a culturally diverse background
-
First female was appointed to Board
Our business is becoming safer, more diverse and sustainable
6
FY16 Results in Context
Underlying NPAT (A$ million)
Planted/Bearing Almond Orchards (acres)*
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59.4
27.9
22.9 21.6
9.5
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16
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Harvest Volume (MT)
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Planted Acres Bearing Acres
16,521
13,311 13,824
11,943 12,319
10,022
8,804 8,804 9,295 9,443
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16
Planted acres as of August End
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Almond Price (A$/kg)
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14,500 14,200
12,000
10,500
5,830
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16
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11.45
8.50
8.08
6.38
5.08
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16
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FY16 was the second best financial performance in the company’s history
7
Understanding FY16 Result
| Reported FY16 Net Profit after Tax (NPAT) | $33.8m |
|---|---|
| Impact of non-recurring items | $5.9m |
| ■Gains on Asset Sales during the Period* |
Underlying FY16 Net Profit after Tax (NPAT) $27.9m
*** Gains on Asset Sales during the Period**
3 properties sold to First State Super (Sale & Leaseback)
Western Australian property sold for $9.5 million
Operating profits boosted by asset sales
8
Income Statement
| Financial Result | FY15 | FY16 |
|---|---|---|
| ($m) | ($m) | |
| Reported Result | ||
| EBIT - Reported | 85.9 | 49.8 |
| Interest | (5.3) | (5.5) |
| NPBT | 80.5 | 44.3 |
| Tax Expense | (23.7) | (10.5) |
| NPAT - Reported | 56.8 | 33.8 |
| Underlying Result | ||
| EBIT – Underlying | 89.6 | 41.3 |
| Interest | (5.3) | (5.5) |
| NPBT | 84.3 | 35.8 |
| Tax Expense | (24.9) | (7.9) |
| NPAT -Underlying | 59.4 | 27.9 |
■ FY16 Underlying EBIT $41.3m (FY15 $89.6m)
■ Almond Division Underlying EBIT $36.1m (FY15 $87.5m)
-
Strong performance in challenging market
-
2016 crop key drivers - 14,200 tonnes & A$8.08/kg inc. AUD currency 6% stronger
Risk mitigation & productivity
- Harvest and processing completed significantly earlier
■ Food Division Underlying EBIT $10.3m (FY15 $6.8m)
-
Industrial sales up 17% (last year 28%)
-
Improved sales mix towards branded products
-
Improved price management and cost control
■ Underlying NPAT down 53% to $27.9m (FY15 $59.4m)
Strong result in challenging market
9
Balance Sheet
| Year Ending Balance Sheet | Jun-15 | Jun-16 |
|---|---|---|
| ($m) | ($m) | |
| Current Assets excl. Cash | 207.5 | 154.1 |
| Cash | 0.3 | 1.4 |
| Non-Current Assets | 280.1 | 294.3 |
| Total Assets | 487.9 | 449.8 |
| Current Liabilities (excl. Borrowings) |
40.8 | 51.2 |
| Borrowings | 110 | 68.7 |
| Non-Current Liabilities (excl. Borrowings) |
49.7 | 39.0 |
| Total Liabilities | 200.5 | 158.9 |
| Total Equity | 287.4 | 290.9 |
| Net Debt | 115.6 | 67.3 |
| Net Debt/Equity | 40.2% | 23.1% |
■ Net Debt $67.3m (FY15 $115.6m)
includes finance lease commitments of $41.8m
■ Gearing (Net debt/equity) 23.1%
■ Working capital reduction driven by 2015 crop sell through
Prudent balance sheet to support growth strategy throughout the business cycle
10
Cash Flow
| Cash Flow | FY15 ($m) |
FY16 ($m) |
|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 96.4 | 62.4 |
| Change in Working Capital | (61.0) |
35.4 |
| Net Interest | (5.0) | (4.9) |
| Cash flow from operating activities |
30.4 | 92.9 |
| Investing cash flows | (99.9) | (47.8) |
| Proceeds from asset sales | - | 73.2 |
| Increase/(decrease) in Debt |
5.8 | (84.8) |
| Increase in Equity | 64.7 | - |
| Dividends Paid | (10.1) | (31.9) |
| Net (Decrease)/Increase in Cash/Cash Equivalents |
(9.1) | 1.6 |
■ Decreased working capital due to 2015 crop sales
■ FY16 Investing cash flows driven by:
-
Orchard acquisitions $5.3m (FY15 $54.6m) Investment in cogen, new orchards in NSW, additional harvest and farm equipment and irrigation upgrades $28.6m
-
Water $9.5m
-
Tree Development $4.4m
■ FY16 Investing cash flows and Debt reduction funded by:
- Proceeds from asset sales $73.2m (sale and leaseback and WA land sale)
■ Capex - FY17
-
Complete Projects – H2E(Cogen), Parboil (ValueAdded Almond production facility)
-
Continued upgrade of irrigation infrastructure Investment in growth phase of younger trees
Record operating cash flow
11
Almond Division
| Almond Division ($m) | FY15 | FY16 |
|---|---|---|
| Underlying EBIT | 87.5 | 36.1 |
Financials
-
Volume: FY16 crop volume est. 14,200 tonnes (FY15 14,500 tonnes) - down 2% - up on guidance
-
Processing: Hulling & shelling complete mid-August
-
2015 Crop : Returns A$4m down
-
Price: FY16 price est. A$8.08/kg (FY15 A$11.45/kg) – down 29%
-
Avge. FY15 AUD/USD Rate = 0.72 (FY15 0.77)
-
76% of 2016 crop sold.
Highlights
-
Night harvest and favourable conditions resulted in faster harvest
-
Sale and leaseback - 3 properties to First State Super (FSS) for A$64.0 million
-
Greenfield plant out - 2,084 acres (with FSS) in July 2016
-
FSS acquired 2 additional properties for SHV to lease & develop greenfield plantings
-
2017 & 18: plant out 1,000 acres
-
Dryness of crop resulted in lower productivity in processing
-
Tree health – continues to improve as nutrient program takes effect
80% of orchard is in sweet spot – substantial, long term, cash generation has commenced
12
Almond Division
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17 August 2016 – the trees are in very good health and responding well to high performance program – 2017 bud potential looks strong
13
Food Division
| Food Division ($m) | FY15 | FY16 |
|---|---|---|
| EBIT | 6.8 | 10.3 |
Financials
-
Revenue of A$161.8 million was up 16.6% (FY15 A$138.8 million)
-
Improved sales mix driven margin improvement
-
Industrial sales up 17%
-
Branded Consumer sales – up 10%
Highlights
-
Industrial sales - Aligning to key regional industrial customers has delivered growth
-
New Product Development (NPD) represent 13% of sales
-
Record Lucky Cooking Market share - July 2016 MAT 42.3 % vs 40.1% last year MAT
-
Export – Continued to grow in both divisions
-
Trading - Astute trading in volatile market has delivered profit gains
Strong performance – ahead of strategy
14
Food Division
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Select continuing to release new and improved products
15
Market Outlook
-
Demand remains strong for both Almond and Food division
-
Consumers continue to see the benefits of all super foods with new product development remaining buoyant
-
Consumers and industry committed to consuming less sugar, preferring Green & Clean alternatives
-
Research continues to support increase consumption of almonds and other plant products to:
-
Improve heart health
-
Combat diabetes
-
Improve cognitive function
-
Reduce mortality
-
Increase fertility
-
Assist weight control
-
Land and water remain are a finite resource
-
Asian middle class continues to be a strong driver of future demand
See positive signs with demand increasing
16
Almond Market Outlook
Demand
-
New product development activity remaining buoyant. Almond Milk and Butters continue to grow
-
www.dairyreporter.com/Markets/Dairy-alternatives-market-to-reach-19.5bn- ~~b~~ y-2020
-
Despite economic malaise Asia middle class will continue to grow
-
Competitive nuts reset to historical norm, stimulating almond growth
-
Recent US shipment data shows extremely strong export demand
-
US domestic market starting to respond to lower prices
Supply
-
Recent lower volatile lower pricing and cost pressures will cause slow down in new plantings and continued removals in US
-
US harvest has commenced over the last couple of weeks. The USDA is forecasting a crop 10% larger than last year. 2.1 Bn lbs, with a slightly higher year on year carryover stock of approx. 0.42 Bn lbs
-
Despite improved conditions year to date, the US drought continues. Long range forecast for a drier than normal winter
-
Recent new announced plantings in Australia will not impact global environment
Price
-
Currency continues to impact price for SHV
-
Last year’s price volatility has resulted in buyers being unwilling to make long term commitments
-
Market pricing will remain uncertain until US crop volume has been confirmed, current forecast USDA appears valid
-
SHV is not active in the market
See positive signs with demand increasing
17
Almond Market Outlook – US Shipments 2015/16
| 2014/15 2015/16 (million lbs) (million lbs) US Export Shipm |
Growth (%) ents |
2014/15 2015/16 Growth 2014/15 2015/16 (million lbs) (million lbs) (%) (million lbs) (million lbs) US Domestic Shipments Total US Almond Sh |
Growth (%) ipments |
| Last 12 months 1,173.1 1,218.0 |
104% | 639.4 593.2 93% 1,812.5 1,811.2 |
100% |
| Last 9 months 827.6 941.4 |
114% | 476.2 438.1 92% 1,303.2 1,379.5 |
106% |
| Last 6 months 571.3 672.8 |
118% | 322.8 301.5 93% 894.1 974.3 |
109% |
| Last 3 months 254.4 332.9 |
131% | 158.5 157.8 100% 412.9 490.7 |
119% |
Source: Almond Board of California Position Reports
Increasing US shipments relative to prior periods are gaining pace
18
Select Harvests Update
-
The 2017 crop has had sufficient chill hours and is now at the pollination stage of the lifecycle
-
Bees are in place and we anticipate a strong bloom with good crossover
-
We can see the benefit of new horticultural programs - the 2017 bud potential looks strong
-
At this very early stage we estimate a 2017 crop in excess of 15,000 MT
-
Water availability and pricing outlook is positive, temp price now below $150/ML
-
Food Division has a more stable base for growth
-
Increased focus on cost and productivity
SHV FY17 Crop estimated to be in excess of 15,000 tonnes
19
Productivity Improvements
-
Improve Yield
-
Improve Mix
-
Improve On-Farm practice
■ Improve Transport and Handling
- Asset Utilisation
■ Cost-out Capex – Project Parboil, Project H2E
Business focus to drive better productivity from base
20
Significant Organic Volume Growth
80% of current planted acres are cash generative
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Current plan is fully funded and no additional processing investment required
21
SHV 2016/7 Business Objectives
-
Zero Harm OH&S strategy
-
Improve average mature tree yield
-
Acquire orchards at the right price
-
Grow and strengthen Food Business
-
Implement Greenfield program
-
Implement Biomass/Cogen plant
-
Implement Parboil
-
Implement 1Select ERP platform
-
Maintain Balance Sheet & Cash Flow strength whilst growing
-
Improve asset productivity & reduce cost
A world class, growing and funded, fully integrated Australian based, export food business – almond orchards, processing, trading, brands, exports
22
Strategy - Planning for Excellence & Growth
1. CONTROL CRITICAL MASS OF ALMONDS
Secure the critical mass of nuts needed to maximize profitability and leverage the global almond opportunity.
2. IMPROVE YIELD & CROP VALUE
Improve yield and overall crop value by perfecting on-farm and farm to factory practices .
3. BE BEST IN CLASS SUPPLY CHAIN
Continuously improve our supply chain, achieving high quality, low cost and optimum capital utilisation.
4. INVEST IN INDUSTRIAL & TRADING DIVISION
Allocate resources to leverage our trading skills and grow sales in the industrial channel .
5. STRENGTHEN PACKAGED FOOD BUSINESS
Commit funds and develop structure to generate domestic and export growth for the packaged food business delivering sustainable returns above the cost of capital .
6. FIX OUR SYSTEMS & PROCESSES
Develop the business systems and processes required to be a global industry leader .
7. NON ORGANIC GROWTH
Acquire businesses in related categories leveraging existing capabilities that are EPS accretive and deliver sustainable returns above our cost of capital.
8. ENGAGE WITH OUR PEOPLE & OUR STAKEHOLDERS
Engage with investors and our industry while developing the team required to be a global industry leader.
We have a clear strategy – execution has delivered growth and productivity
23
Thank you
Please direct any queries to:
| Paul Thompson | Paul Chambers | Andrew Angus |
|---|---|---|
| Managing Director | Chief Financial Officer | Investor Relations |
| +61 3 9474 3544 | +61 3 9474 3544 | +61 402 823 757 |
| Please note that background material/data regarding the global almond industry can be found on the | Select Harvests website - www.selectharvests.com.au |
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24
Select Harvests - Financial History
| 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 SHV Historical Summary Units* |
2016 |
|---|---|
| Total Sales (A$M) 217.9 229.5 224.7 248.6 238.4 248.3 251.3 191.1 188.1 223.5 EBIT (A$M) 38.4 40.5 27.1 26.8 26.0 15.4 19.6 37.7 31.3 89.6 EBIT Margin (EBIT/Sales - %) (%) 17.6% 17.6% 12.1% 10.8% 10.9% 6.2% 7.8% 19.7% 16.6% 40.1% PBT (A$M) 37.9 40.0 25.4 23.0 23.6 12.0 13.4 32.7 26.8 84.3 NPAT (A$M) 26.5 28.1 18.1 16.7 17.3 8.9 9.5 22.9 21.6 59.4 Issued Shares No. of Shares 39.7 38.7 39.0 39.5 39.8 56.2 56.8 57.5 58.0 71.4 Earnings Per Share (AUD Cents per Share) 67.1 71.0 46.7 42.6 43.3 17.0 16.8 40.1 37.5 86.8 Dividend per Share (AUD Cents per Share) 53.0 57.0 45.0 12.0 21.0 13.0 8.0 12.0 20.0 50.0 Payout Ratio (%) 80.0% 80.0% 96.7% 28.2% 48.5% 76.5% 47.6% 29.9% 53.3% 57.6% Net Tangible Assets per Share (A$/Share) 1.83 1.57 1.41 1.56 1.87 2.17 2.19 2.14 2.38 3.35 Net Interest Cover (times) 82.3 75.8 15.6 7.1 10.7 4.5 3.2 7.5 7.0 16.9 Net Debt (A$M) 1.3 1.6 46.8 52.4 45.0 73.1 66.8 79.3 94.8 115.6 Shareholder Equity (A$M) 101.5 95.5 94.1 100.9 113.6 168.8 160.3 159.5 175.4 287.4 Net Debt to Equity Ratio (%) 1.3% 1.7% 49.7% 51.9% 39.6% 43.3% 41.7% 49.7% 54.1% 40.2% Share Price (A$/Share) 13.02 11.60 6.00 2.16 3.46 1.84 2.40 3.90 5.14 11.00 Market Capitalisation (A$M) 517.0 449.4 234.1 85.4 137.6 103.5 120.0 224.3 298.1 785.4 P/E Ratio 19.5 16.0 12.9 5.1 8.0 11.6 12.6 9.8 13.8 13.2 |
285.9 |
| 41.3 | |
| 14.4% | |
| 35.8 | |
| 27.9 | |
| 72.9 | |
| 38.5 | |
| 46.0 | |
| 119.5% | |
| 3.22 | |
| 7.5 | |
| 67.3 | |
| 290.9 | |
| 23.1% | |
| $6.74 | |
| 491.5 | |
| 17.6 |
- 2014 figures have been rebased according to early adoption of Accounting Standards, AASB 116, Property, Plant and Equipment, and AASB 141, Agriculture, impacting “bearer plants”. 2011-2016 figures represent underlying earnings .
Source: Company Data
25
Food Division - Brands
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-
Market leader in the cooking nut category. Value share 43.6 % as at 19 April 2016.
-
Cooking Nut product range: almonds, walnuts, cashews, hazelnuts, brazil nuts, pine nuts, pistachios, macadamias, sunflower seeds and pepitas (Snacking product range: portion control packs, Lucky Smart Snax and Lucky Snack Tubs.
-
Distribution: major supermarkets and export markets including the Middle East, Indonesia and Papua New Guinea.
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-
Product range: nuts, dried fruit, legumes and pulses, cereals, grains, seeds, flour, muesli and organic foods.
-
Bulk and convenient packs.
-
Distribution: health food stores and pharmacies nationally.
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-
Product range: muesli, dried fruit, nuts and snacks.
-
Distribution: major supermarkets (muesli) and export markets including Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia , Indonesia and the Pacific Rim.
-
Product range: muesli, dried fruit, wholefoods, nuts and snacks.
-
Distribution: Health aisle of major supermarkets and export markets including Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Pacific Rim.
-
Product range: almonds and other nuts, dried fruit, seeds, nut pastes and pralines.
-
• Bulk pack.
-
Products sold to local and overseas food manufacturers, wholesalers, distributors and re-packers.
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Portfolio of Consumer and Industrial Brands to service the Growing Australian and Asian Demand for Source: Company Data and Aztec National Chains Scan data Heathy, Value based Food with Australian Provenance
26
Project Parboil – Almond Value-Add
Projective Objective: To install an Added Value Almond Processing & Packing Facility at Carina West
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Infrastructure designed using and comply to:
WQA Manufactured Food Standard Version8
&
Coles Food Manufacturing Supplier Requirements (CFMSR) ver Feb 2014
Specifications
Operational Highlights
-
Building size: 50m x 84m
-
Integrated Processing Equipment: Blanching, Slivering, Slicing, Dicing, Dry Roasting, Pasting, Grinding, Pasteurising, Electronic Sorting and Industrial & Retail Packing
-
1.2m concrete tilt slab perimeter internal/external
-
Borrell Integrated Blanching & Roasting Line
-
Nimbus Electronic Sorter with Biometric Signature Identification
-
Climate Controlled Factory, Cool Store Warehousing
-
Propac Retail Baggers AV 2.2 with Dual Feed system
-
Automated Industrial Packing Line with Gas Flushing
-
Pattyn Fully Automated Industrial Packaging Line
-
Climate Controlled Factory, Cool Store Warehousing
-
Ishida Multi-Head & Check Weighers
-
Operational Hours: 8hrs x 5 days x 48 weeks
-
Visy Automation Robotic Retail & Industrial Palletizing line
-
Operators Employed: 12
-
2mt per hour thru-put
-
Capital Investment: $11m AUD
-
Installation – Q2 2016
27
Operations - Project H2E – Hull to Energy
Project Overview: Biomass boiler and steam turbine, fuelled by almond hull and shell converting it to heat and power. Abating 24000 tonnes* of greenhouse gas.
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*Internal estimate
Reduces energy cost by 20%, enhancing Carina West’s position as a global low cost processor
28
Almond Orchards – Our productive foundation
-
Geographic diversity limits exposure to: − Weather
-
− Disease spread
-
− Insect infestation
Enables sequential progression of harvest period across regions: − Better farm equipment utilisation − Better processing utilisation − Better labour utilisation
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Secure access to diverse water sources:
-
River Water
-
− Aquifers
Positions the company to maximise harvest volume & reduce variance.
Building world class properties and a globally competitive low cost business.
Australia’s 2[nd] largest & most geographically diverse almond producer – 16,521 planted acres
Growth – 1,000 acres to be planted in July 2017 & 2018 – Funded by 3[rd] party
29
Select Harvests – Orchard Profile
| Select Harvests Planted Under Development Total Planted |
Select Harvests Planted Under Development Total Planted |
Select Harvests Planted Under Development Total Planted |
Select Harvests Planted Under Development Total Planted |
|---|---|---|---|
| Almond orchard portfolio (as at 30 June 2016) (as at 30 June 2016) (as at 26 August 2016) |
|||
| Acres Hectares Acres Hectares Acres Hectares |
|||
| Central region Company Owned Leased |
3,852 1,559 1,481 599 |
310 125 1,443 584 |
4,162 1,684 2,924 1,183 |
| Total Central | 5,333 2,158 |
1,753 709 |
7,086 2,868 |
| Northern Region Company Owned Leased |
1,691 684 3,017 1,221 |
107 43 |
1,798 728 3,017 1,221 |
| Total Northern | 4,708 1,905 |
4,815 1,949 |
|
| Southern Region Company Owned Leased |
1,574 637 2,405 973 |
641 259 |
1,574 637 3,046 1,233 |
| Total Southern | 3,979 1,610 |
641 259 |
4,620 1,870 |
| Total Company Owned Leased |
7,117 2,880 6,903 2,794 |
417 169 2,084 843 |
7,534 3,049 8,987 3,637 |
| Total | 14,020 5,674 |
2,501 1,012 |
16,521 6,687 |
30
Select Harvests – Orchard Age Profile
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Significant growth & improvement occurred in SHV orchard portfolio in recent years - acquisition, replants, greenfields
31
Almond Pricing over a 10 year crop period (AUD)
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Almond Price Nonpareil SUP 23/25 (AUD/kg)
(AUD/kg) - LHS Historical Rolling Average AUD/kg - LHS 5 Year Rolling Average AUD/kg - LHS
Rollng Average USD vs AUD - RHS Linear ((AUD/kg) - LHS)
$14.00 $1.00
$0.90
$12.00
$0.80
$10.00 $0.70
$0.60
$8.00
$0.50
$6.00
$0.40
$4.00 $0.30
$0.20
$2.00
$0.10
$- $0.00
Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16
(AUD/kg) - LHS $7.95 $5.63 $6.30 $6.46 $4.69 $5.45 $7.45 $10.02 $12.42 $7.20
Historical Rolling Average AUD/kg - LHS $7.95 $6.79 $6.63 $6.59 $6.21 $6.08 $6.28 $6.74 $7.37 $7.36
5 Year Rolling Average AUD/kg - LHS $6.21 $5.71 $6.07 $6.81 $8.01 $8.51
Rollng Average USD vs AUD - RHS $0.7880 $0.8546 $0.7982 $0.8287 $0.8749 $0.9008 $0.9192 $0.9162 $0.9004 $0.8854
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- This is internal company data. Please note this is a reflection of one nut variety & size, not the total pool return
The combination of currency and price has caused the sharpest price correction in recent history
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Almonds competitively priced against other tree nuts
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Tree Nut Spot Pricing March 2010 vs March 2015 vs March 2016
(USD/lb)
Averaged March 2016 Averaged March 2015 Averaged March 2010
$2.50
Almond $4.55
$2.42
$3.65
Hazelnut $6.80
$2.80
$4.75
Roasted & Salted
$5.35
Pistachio
$3.95
$3.80
Brazil Nut $3.60
$2.40
$3.60
Cashew $3.35
$3.37
$2.55
Walnut $4.65
$3.61
$- $1.00 $2.00 $3.00 $4.00 $5.00 $6.00 $7.00 $8.00
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Almond pricing relativity has been restored to historic norms
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Select Harvests – Horticultural Costs
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US Almond Production - Ageing
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Source: USDA NASS, 2016 California Almond Forecast Report, 10 May 2016
38% of California’s total Almond Orchard Acreage is more than 21 years old
6% of Select Harvests total Almond Orchard portfolio is over 21 years old
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US - Groundwater Depletion Concerns
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Purple Shading = Critically Overdrafted Groundwater Basins
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Groundwater - Some of the biggest counties are reliant on critically overdrafted groundwater basins Dept of Water Resources has a well defined timeline to groundwater legislation and management
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US Almond Production & Drought
14% - North Counties % of US Almond Prod’n
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Orange States = Severe Drought 86% - South Counties % of US Almond Prod’n Red States = Extreme Drought Dark Brown States – Exceptional Drought
Drought situation is much improved on 2015
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Useful Almond Industry Websites
■
Industry Associations
- ─ Californian Almond Board
www.almondboard.com
-
─ United States Drought Monitor
-
─ Dept. of Water Resources (DWR) – Reservoir Levels
-
─ DWR – Snowpack Levels
-
─ DWR – Critically Overdrafted Groundwater Basins (2016)
-
Industry Reports
-
─ US Crop Forecasts (Subjective, Objective)
-
─ Monthly Almond Position Reports
-
─ Almond Almanac
-
─ UC Davis Almond Development Costings
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?CA http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cdecapp/resapp/getResGraphsMain.action http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cdecapp/snowapp/sweq.action http://www.water.ca.gov/groundwater/sgm/pdfs/GW_basinsCriticalOverdraft_CA.pdf http://www.almonds.com/growers/resources/crop-forecasts http://www.almonds.com/newsletters/position-reports?from-section=2881 http://www.almonds.com/sites/default/files/content/attachments/2015_almanac.pdf http://coststudies.ucdavis.edu/en/current/
■ Almond Companies
- ─ Blue Diamond Growers
www.bluediamond.com
- ─ Blue Diamond Ingredients
www.bdingredients.com/category/almond-market-analysis
- ─ Almond Insights
www.almondinsights.com
- ─ Derco Foods
www.dercofoods.com/en/reports
- ─ RPAC Almonds
www.rpacalmonds.com/marketnews
- ─ Paramount Farms
www.paramountfarms.com
-
─ Hilltop Ranch www.hilltopranch.com
-
─ Merlo Farming www.merlofarminggroup.com
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Thank you
Please direct any queries to:
| Paul Thompson | Paul Chambers | Andrew Angus |
|---|---|---|
| Managing Director | Chief Financial Officer | Investor Relations |
| +61 3 9474 3544 | +61 3 9474 3544 | +61 402 823 757 |
| Please note that background material/data regarding the global almond industry can be found on the | Select Harvests website - www.selectharvests.com.au |
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