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SELECT HARVESTS LIMITED — Investor Presentation 2015
Oct 20, 2015
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Investor Presentation
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Select Harvests Limited (“SHV”) Investing in Productivity & Growth Morgans Queensland Conference Presentation 21 October 2015
Disclaimer & Basis of Preparation
This presentation is provided for information purposes only and has been prepared using information provided by the company. The information contained in this presentation is not intended to be relied upon as advice to investors and does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular investor. Investors should consider their own individual investment and financial circumstances in relation to any investment decision.
Certain statements contained in this presentation may constitute forward-looking statements or statements about future matters that are based upon information known and assumptions made as of the date of this presentation. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from any future results or performance expressed, predicted or implied by the statements contained in this presentation.
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Agenda
1. 2015 Highlights
2. Strategy – Objectives & Activities Overview
3. Almond Division
4. Food Division
5. 2016 Business Objectives & Outlook
6. Appendices
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FY15 Financial Highlights
| Financial Result Restated FY14 ($m) FY15 ($m) |
|
|---|---|
| Reported Result EBIT - Reported 31.3 85.9 Interest (4.5) (5.3) NPBT 26.8 80.6 Tax Expense (5.2) (23.8) NPAT - Reported 21.6 56.8 |
|
| Underlying Result EBIT – Underlying 31.3 89.6 Interest (4.5) (5.3) NPBT 26.8 84.3 Tax Expense (5.2) (24.9) NPAT - Underlying 21.6 59.4 |
Reported FY15 Net Profit after Tax (NPAT) of $56.8m is a record - up 163%
- (Note: Restated FY14 Reported NPAT* of $21.6m)
Reported EBIT $85.9m (FY14 EBIT $31.3m) - up 174%*
Operating cash flow $34.2m (FY14 $23.1m) - up 32%
Net Debt $109.7m - Gearing (Net Debt to Equity) down to 38%
Reported Earnings per Share (EPS) - 82.9 cents per share (FY14 37.5 cps) - up 121%*
Dividend - Final Dividend (unfranked) 35 cents per share - total FY15 dividend 50 cents per share (FY14 20cps)
- FY14 & FY15 Financials have been impacted by changes to the Accounting standards
Strong performance across the business
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FY15 Business Highlights
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Record almond crop 14,500 tonnes & pool price A$11.45/kg
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Acquisition of 2 orchards
-
Amaroo
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Mullroo
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Funding initiatives
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Equity Raising $65m
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Sale and Leaseback with First State Super
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Food Business bottom line growth – FY15 EBIT $6.8M v FY14 $5.6M
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Improve productivity of processing facilities
Significant progress in implementing growth strategy – delivering performance
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SHV Strategy - Objectives & Activities Overview
| FY13 INITIATIVES | FY13 INITIATIVES | FY14 INITIATIVES | FY14 INITIATIVES | FY15 INITIATIVES | FY 15 + | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. CONTROL CRITICAL MASS OF ALMONDS |
Secure the critical mass of nuts needed to maximize profitability and leverage the global almond opportunity. |
• Acquired 521 Ha (1,286 acres) almond orchard • Ceased WA investment |
~~15%~~ • Acquired 1,004 Ha (2,481 acres) planted orchard • Acquired 1,808 Ha (4,465 acres) unplanted • Acquired 6,215 ML high security water • Replanted 207 Ha (512 acres) @ higher densities |
• Acquire mature orchards • Planting 384 Ha (948 acres) Allinga • Develop 2,024+ Ha (5,000+ acres) of greenfield almonds |
|||
| Acquired 521 Ha (1,286 acres) almond orchard |
• Acquired 275 Ha (680 planted orchard |
acres) |
• Acquired 1,00 planted orcha |
||||
| • Acquired 405Ha (1,000 acres) unplanted |
|||||||
| 2. IMPROVE YIELD & CROP VALUE |
Improve yield and overall crop value by perfecting on-farm and farm to factory practices. |
• Restructured Horticulture Division • Investments in Benchmarking/Tech. • Improve efficiency/protect yield • $500K frost fans |
• Total review of Horticultural assets • Further $500K frost fans • Additional harvest equipment |
ROCE • Additional harvest equipment • Bio-stimulants trial • Trial catch & shake harvest technology |
• Increase Hort. program to target 3.2T/Ha (1.3T/acre) yield • On farm drying • Irrigation management |
||
| 3. BE BEST IN CLASS SUPPLY CHAIN |
Continuously improve our supply chain, achieving high quality, low cost and optimum capital utilisation. |
. • Restructured Operations Division |
7- • Evaluate operational improvements & refine proposals • New Optical Sorter at Thomastown |
• High voltage network (H2E) |
• Reduce cost (Parboil) • Refrigerated storage • Biomass (H2E) |
||
| ne | Cogen Plant • Carina West Dryer |
• Ref • Bio |
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| EPS 10% pa |
|||||||
| 4. INVEST IN INDUSTRIAL & TRADING DIVISION |
Allocate resources to leverage our trading skills and grow sales in the industrial channel |
• Grew Industrial Division 40% |
• Grew Industrial Division 24% through local and SE Asia customer base • Innovations assisted growth |
• Expanding business with food processors in local and SE Asian markets |
• Increase value adding capacity (Parboil) |
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| 5. TURN AROUND PACKAGED FOOD BUSINESS |
Develop a new model for the packaged food category that will deliver sustainable returns above the cost of capital. |
• Exited unprofitable Retail Brand business • Product Research/Collect Insights |
• Product Development - Innovation/Renovation/Reform ulation/Repackaging • Brand relaunch - Sunsol & Lucky Smart Snax |
10% EBIT pa • Multiple relaunches & new products • Range rationalisation • New distributors - Thailand & Malaysia |
• Relaunch key brands • Accelerate NPD rate of branded business • Again distribution in SE Asia |
||
| 6. FIX OUR SYSTEMS & PROCESSES |
Develop the business systems and processes required to be a global industry leader. |
• OHS improvement - LTI’s dropped 60% |
• OHS improvement - LTI’s dropped 73% • New risk management framework • New OHS policies/procedures |
• IT upgrade |
• Single Company ERP • Reduce LTIs by 25% Y on Y |
||
| 7. ENGAGE WITH OUR PEOPLE & OUR STAKEHOLDERS |
Engage with investors and our industry while developing the team required to be a global industry leader. |
• Investor engagement – conferences, site tours and road shows |
• Hort. 3 training for Farm Management • Refreshed company website • Introduction of employee newsletters/intranet |
• Further development of Performance Review process • Diversity Committee |
6 6 • Improve skill levels on farm & processing QA • Employee diversity |
Almond Division
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Allinga Farm Greenfield Development (384Ha/948 acres)
– October 2015
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Strategy to move from manager to farmer is working
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Almond Supply - Geographic Diversity & Scale
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Geographic diversity limits exposure to:
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Weather
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− Disease spread
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− Insect infestation
Amaroo to Robinvale
Distance: 225 km Drive Time: 2.5 hours
Mullroo to Robinvale
Distance: 140 km Drive Time: 1.8 hours
Mendook to Robinvale
Distance: 40km Drive Time: 0.5 hours
Australia’s 2[nd] largest and most geographically diverse almond producer
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- Orchard Profile Almond Supply
Age Profile of SHV Almond Orchard Portfolio
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20%
18%
15% 14% 66% 5%
16%962 Ha (2,376 acres) 926 Ha (2,286 acres) 4,361 Ha (10,772 acres) 310 Ha (766 acres)
Currently announced Planted orchards are Planted orchards in econmic sweetspot - Planted orchards post
14% future years planting immature low capex & high cash generation economic maturity
program
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Tree Age (Years)
Plant 2020 Plant 2019 Plant 2018 Plant 2017 Plant 2016 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32
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Source: Company Data
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Select Harvests almond orchards have an average age of 10.7 years (basis: 2016 almond harvest)
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Almond Orchard Expansion
Strategic Objective:
[Grow the critical mass of almonds to 20,000 tonnes by FY24/25 ]
Key Projects:
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Organic Growth
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Develop existing infrastructure at Amaroo
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Mullroo and Mendook to support existing orchards and growth
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Improve on farm water management
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Increase Hort. programs to promote nut size and tree growth
Investment Growth
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Develop existing greenfield areas and replace older orchards: Allinga, Wemen, Kyndalyn Park
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Develop First State Super relationship with Amaroo, Mullroo and Mendook
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Secure additional acquisitions of mature orchards and greenfield opportunities
Building a supply platform for growth
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Innovation – Almond Business
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Allinga Farm, Greenfield Development
– October 2015
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Objective:
- [Reduce orchard development costs by 5%]
Key Projects:
- [Efficiency]
[Use GPS technology to maximise land use]
- [Cost]
[Automated tree planting to reduce ] manual handling
- [Replace tree staking with trellis]
Low cost without compromising quality
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Innovation – Hull to Energy
Strategic Objective:
[Substantially improve the almond processing plant’s competitiveness and ongoing viability by reducing its cost base by 20%]
Key Projects:
Stage 1
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Bundle Carina West Processing and 2 nearby dams by laying connecting cable into one meter point thereby lowering the maximum demand charge between the 3 - Complete
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Convert all Victorian low voltage transformers greater than 1MW to high voltage, thereby realising significant network supply cost reductions - Complete
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Install electronic monitoring equipment to control usage patterns to maximise off-peak usage
Stage 2
- Install a biomass boiler/turbine power plant to directly supply electricity and steam to Carina West Processing Plant and 2 nearby dams and indirectly off-set costs across SHV (other farms) with remaining generated power.
Key Outcomes:
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Reduce processing plant’s cost base by 20%
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Reduce Select Harvests carbon footprint by 23,645 tonnes annually
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Employ 8 additional skilled full time employees
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Waste from biomass boiler will be used for agricultural products
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Consumes Almond waste product (hull & Shell) and orchard pruning's
Key Facts:
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Capital Investment $12.0M
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Fuel consumed: 30,000MT p.a.
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Operational hours: 24 hrs x 7 days x 48 weeks
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Operators employed: 8
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Excess power delivered into local grid
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• Commissioning Dec 2016
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Improves Select Harvests CSR
Building a sustainable globally competitive low cost facility
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2015 Crop Update
Belvedere Farm – August 2015
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Wemen Farm – October 2015
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Sufficient chill hours between seasons
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Good bloom in NSW & SA, whilst Vic solid
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Between now and Dec, nut size and 2016 growth to be determined
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Weather outlook remains favourable
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Crop estimate will be undertaken during November
Next Update AGM – 26 November 2015
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Global Market Update
Demand
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2014/15 Global supply has been absorbed by demand, with US carryover stock between seasons remaining flat
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US and Indian demand remains strongest
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Many markets have shown short term resistance to higher prices
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212 Products with almond ingredients were launched in Australian supermarkets
Supply
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US Market 2015/16 crop estimate - 1.80 Bn pounds (down 4% v last year)
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US Harvest nearly finished - estimated crop more likely 1.75 Bn pounds
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Australia and Spanish crops up & large, but insufficient to make up shortfall
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Trees take 3 years to totally recover from drought
Little inventory held by customers, Australian or Spanish growers and processors
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Difficult to substitute Supply –
Global Tree Nut Production 2006-2014
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1,200,000
Almond Share of Global Tree Nut Production
2006 2014 Increase
1,000,000 Volume - Tree Nuts 2.77MT 3.49MT 0.71MT
Volume - Almonds 0.67MT 1.08MT 0.41MT
% of Global Tree Nut Production - Almonds 24% 31%
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
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Almonds Walnuts Cashews Pistachios Hazelnuts Pecans Pine Nuts Macadamias Brazil Nuts
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Tonnes
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Source: International Nut & Dried Fruit Council Foundation (INC)
Almonds are the most versatile and highest volume nut - substitution is difficult
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Demand = Protein Affordability – October 2015
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Source: Protein Data - Australian Institute of Sport (AIS) . Pricing based on company survey (on-line Australian retail pricing, October 2015).
Almonds are one of the most affordable protein sources across all food types
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Almond Price
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Note: this chart is for indicative purposes only – it represents one premium almond grade (of the many that Select Harvests produce and sell) and its sole reason for inclusion is to give the reader an understanding of the historical relativity of the current almond price and the trend which is generally common across almond grades. It should not be construed as the average price that Select Harvests sells at.
Source: Company Data
Price has remained strong despite substantial production increases and A$ appreciation
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El Nino Impacts
Increased rain in California
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Experience shows it takes 3 years for almond trees to recover from drought
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US government determined to introduce water regulation similar to Australia
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Normal year - 50% of California’s water is sourced from snow & 30% from aquifer (60% in drought years)
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Cailfornian aquifers unlikely to recover without tougher regulations
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Drought lost acreage is unknown
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Urban & environmental pressure will continue to increase
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Tougher growing conditions
Drier conditions in Australia
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Australia has regulated water market, protecting both assets and industry
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Horticultural crops generate the highest return per ML
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No increase from urban pressure as population is flat in the connected network
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Environmental requirements have been largely met
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Urban utilities can return water due to desalination capabilities
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Higher cost but more predictable growing conditions
Significant difference between Australian & US water markets
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US Ground Water
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Current forecast is El Nino will be a similar event to 1983
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75%+ of almond industry is in Tulare & Central valleys
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Industry shift North, due to better water availability, but at a cost
Regulation, not nature, solves this situation
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NSW (Narrandera) Groundwater levels
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Source : NSW DPI live data
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Significant difference between Australian & US water management – regulation ensures aquifer recharge
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Total Return per ML (Riverina NSW)
Many crops have insufficient profitability to withstand over $200/ML increase
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Water
SHV Strategy
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Own & Long term lease* 33%, 3-5 year term lease 33% and 33% spot
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To have access to least 15%-20% more water than required
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Own or long term leases* when sourcing from aquifer - no short term exposure
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Own high quality surface entitlements with reliable allocations
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Trade and use carryover facility to deliver best spot price outcome
SHV Water
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Water represents 8% of Horticultural cost
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SHV average water cost FY15 was A$110/ML
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Assume spot price moves to A$250/ML in FY16 & all spot purchases are made at this price, impact approx. A$2m
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20 YEAR+ LEASES
SHV have a strategy to manage the impact of water cost
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Food Division
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Turn around has commenced
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Innovation – Food Business (Industrial)
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Strategic Objective:
- [Increase sales in global food processing market]
Key Objectives:
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[Increase offshore presence with multi-national and Asian ] confectionery manufacturers
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[Identify food manufacturers looking to increase protein ] content, generally reducing sugar and looking to increase health credentials
This capability to innovate is essential - industrial export sales over $12.5m per annum
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Project Parboil – Almond Value Add
Strategic Objectives:
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[Address the current capacity shortfall of “value add” almond products]
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[Open sales opportunities from customers demanding peanut-free processing environments]
Key Projects:
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Establish a new state-of-the-art ‘value add’ almond processing facility, adjacent to the existing almond hulling & shelling plant at Carina West
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Install new highly efficient almond blancher, roaster, slicers, grinders and packing lines
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Lower overall supply chain cost
Key Outcomes
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Consolidates all almond assets close to the almond trees
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Facilitates almonds sales to customers that require peanut free facility
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Allows direct shipping to customers
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New equipment has higher throughput and efficiencies
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Higher yields will be achieved with new equipment
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Provides capacity to meet current blanching shortfall & growth opps.
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Cost benefits from steam and electricity supplied by new Co-gen plant
Key Facts:
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Capital Investment $10.0M
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Operational hours: 8 hrs/5 days/48 weeks
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Single integrated Almond blanching/roasting line
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Operators employed: 12
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Commissioning Q3 2016
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Employ 12 additional skilled full time employees
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Address almond kernel warehousing shortfall
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Replaces need to upgrade existing equipment at Thomastown facility
Delivers cost out, capacity and innovation
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Innovation – Food Business (Packaged Food)
Strategic Objective:
[Increase sales in value added categories]
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Transformation has commenced despite tough domestic environment
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SHV 2016 Business Objectives
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Roll out Zero Harm OH&S strategy – deliver 25% y.o.y. reduction in LTI’s
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Improve average mature tree yield equal to or greater than 1.3 tonnes/acre (3.2 tonnes/ha)
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Select Harvests FY15 average yield 1.26 tonnes/acre (3.1 tonnes/ha)
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Acquire orchards at the right price
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Implement greenfield program
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Implement Biomass/Cogen plant
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Implement Parboil
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Continue strategic plan to turn around Food Business
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Implement consolidation of One Select ERP platform
Continuing to drive our successful strategy
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Business Outlook
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Demand in both Divisions will increase as the benefits of healthy eating are promoted
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High prices will continue to test the market
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US almond supply will be constrained
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SHV volume growth will be driven by organic improvements, greenfield development and prudent acquisitions
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Projects & volume to protect and grow bottom-line
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Balance Sheet strength will be used to grow, with almonds continuing to be our backbone
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Asia will become more important with the impact of food security, wealth, population growth and FTA
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Thank you
Join us on Instagram for regular snaps on Orchards, Food Business & Products
Please direct any queries to:
Paul Thompson Managing Director +61 3 9474 3544
Paul Chambers Andrew Angus Chief Financial Officer Investor Relations +61 3 9474 3544 +61 402 823 757
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Select Harvests Financial history
| 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 SHV Historical Summary Units* |
|||||||||||
| Total Sales | (A$M) | 217.9 | 229.5 | 224.7 | 248.6 | 238.4 | 248.3 | 251.3 | 191.1 | 188.1 | 223.5 |
| EBIT | (A$M) | 38.4 | 40.5 | 27.1 | 26.8 | 26.0 | 22.6 | 19.6 | 37.7 | 31.3 | 89.6 |
| EBIT Margin(EBIT/Sales - %) | (%) | 17.6% | 17.6% | 12.1% | 10.8% | 10.9% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 19.7% | 16.6% | 40.1% |
| PBT | (A$M) | 37.9 | 40.0 | 25.4 | 23.0 | 23.6 | 18.5 | 13.4 | 32.7 | 26.8 | 84.3 |
| NPAT | (A$M) | 26.5 | 28.1 | 18.1 | 16.7 | 17.3 | 17.7 | 9.5 | 22.9 | 21.6 | 56.8 |
| Issued Shares | No. of Shares | 39.7 | 38.7 | 39.0 | 39.5 | 39.8 | 56.2 | 56.8 | 57.5 | 58.0 | 71.4 |
| Earnings Per Share |
(AUD Centsper Share) | 67.1 | 71.0 | 46.7 | 42.6 | 43.3 | 33.7 | 16.8 | 40.1 | 37.5 | 82.9 |
| Dividendper Share |
(AUD Centsper Share) | 53.0 | 57.0 | 45.0 | 12.0 | 21.0 | 13.0 | 8.0 | 12.0 | 20.0 | 50.0 |
| Payout Ratio | (%) | 80.0% | 80.0% | 96.7% | 28.2% | 48.5% | 38.6% | 47.6% | 29.9% | 53.3% | 60.3% |
| Net Tangible Assetsper Share | (A$/Share) | 1.83 | 1.57 | 1.41 | 1.56 | 1.87 | 2.17 | 2.19 | 2.14 | 2.38 | 3.35 |
| Net Interest Cover | (times) | 82.3 | 75.8 | 15.6 | 7.1 | 10.7 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 7.5 | 7.0 | 16.9 |
| Net Debt | (A$M) | 1.3 | 1.6 | 46.8 | 52.4 | 45.0 | 73.1 | 66.8 | 79.3 | 94.8 | 109.7 |
| Shareholder Equity | (A$M) | 101.5 | 95.5 | 94.1 | 100.9 | 113.6 | 168.8 | 160.3 | 159.5 | 175.4 | 287.4 |
| Net Debt to EquityRatio | (%) | 1.3% | 1.7% | 49.7% | 51.9% | 39.6% | 43.3% | 41.7% | 49.7% | 54.1% | 38.2% |
| Share Price | (A$/Share) | 13.02 | 11.60 | 6.00 | 2.16 | 3.46 | 1.84 | 2.40 | 3.90 | 5.14 | 11.79 |
| Market Capitalisation | (A$M) | 517.0 | 449.4 | 234.1 | 85.4 | 137.6 | 103.5 | 120.0 | 224.3 | 298.1 | 835.1 |
| P/E Ratio | 19.5 | 16.0 | 12.9 | 5.1 | 8.0 | 5.8 | 12.6 | 9.8 | 13.8 | 14.7 | |
| *2014 figures have been rebased according to early adoption of Accounting Standards, AASB 116, Property, Plant and Equipment, and AASB 141, Agriculture, impacting“bearer plants”. | |||||||||||
Source: Company Data
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Select Harvests Tree Area by Age
| Tree age (at Feb 2016 Harvest) | Area | Area |
|---|---|---|
| (Acres) | (Ha) | |
| 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 |
948 727 611 0 0 0 0 1,907 2,804 1,097 889 1,169 505 294 455 651 609 167 225 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 766 |
384 294 247 0 0 0 0 772 1135 444 360 473 205 119 184 264 247 68 91 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 310 |
| 13,824 | 5,597 |
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Horticultural Costs
SHV FY2015 Horticulture Costs by Percentage
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Others
Labour
11%
17%
Havest
14%
Fert & Chem
Fixed 21%
10%
Water
Bee
8%
Energy 5%
14%
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Source: Company Data
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US Crop History Analysis
| Crop Year | 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 |
|---|---|
| Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Forecast |
|
| Bearing Acres YOY Growth Non Bearing Acres |
510,000 610,000 640,000 710,000 750,000 770,000 800,000 820,000 850,000 870,000 20% 5% 11% 6% 3% 4% 2% 4% 2% 100,000 145,000 125,000 115,000 90,000 85,000 75,000 110,000 120,000 150,000 |
| Total Acres Bearing to Non Bearing Ratio Yield (Metric tonnes per acre) Crop Size (LHS Axis) - '000 000 lbs YOY Growth Vs Base Growth Shipments - Total - '000 000 lbs YOY Growth Vs Base Growth Shipments - Domestic - '000 000 lbs Shipments - Export - '000 000 lbs Carry Out Stock - '000 000 lbs Percentage of Crop Percentage Previous Yr Crop US Farm Price - US$/lb (RHS Axis) YOY Growth |
610,000 755,000 765,000 825,000 840,000 855,000 875,000 930,000 970,000 1,020,000 19% 16% 14% 11% 10% 9% 12% 12% 15% 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.0 912 1,117 1,383 1,614 1,406 1,628 2,020 1,884 2,010 1,870 22% 24% 17% (13%) 16% 24% (7%) 7% (7%) 22% 52% 77% 54% 79% 122% 107% 120% 105% 914 1,066 1,261 1,389 1,472 1,668 1,899 1,867 1,937 2,134 17% 18% 10% 6% 13% 14% (2%) 4% 10% 17% 38% 52% 61% 82% 108% 104% 112% 133% 304 368 395 411 450 490 547 588 642 693 610 698 866 978 1,022 1,178 1,352 1,278 1,296 1,407 231 413 321 254 336 317 350 287 17% 26% 23% 16% 17% 17% 17% 15% 21% 30% 20% 18% 21% 16% 19% 14% $2.81 $2.06 $1.75 $1.45 $1.65 $1.79 $1.99 $2.58 $2.90 $3.50 (27%) (15%) (17%) 14% 8% 11% 30% 12% 21% |
Note: As at 18 June 2015
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