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Seadrill Limited — Management Reports 2017
Dec 16, 2017
9186_rns_2017-12-16_c2d4f2f8-1856-4635-9c8f-f00afa9d38a3.pdf
Management Reports
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Seadrill Limited
Strictly Private & Confidential
December 2017 Business Plan Update
Subject to the disclosures, assumptions and qualifications set out in this presentation including, without limitation, the disclaimer set forth on page 2
December 2017
Disclaimer
We have prepared this document solely for informational purposes. You should not definitively rely upon it or use it to form the definitive basis for any decision, contract, commitment or action whatsoever, with respect to any proposed transaction or otherwise.
The information contained herein includes certain statements, estimates and projections with respect to our anticipated future performance and anticipated industry trends. Such statements, estimates and projections reflect various assumptions concerning anticipated results and industry trends, which assumptions may or may not prove to be correct. Actual results and trends may vary materially and adversely from the projections contained herein. Neither we nor any of our affiliates, or our or their respective officers, employees, advisors or agents, make any representation or warranty, express or implied, in relation to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this document or any oral information provided in connection herewith, or any data it generates and accept no responsibility, obligation or liability (whether direct or indirect, in contract, tort or otherwise) in relation to any of such information. We and our affiliates and our and their respective officers, employees, advisors and agents expressly disclaim any and all liability which may be based on this document and any errors therein or omissions therefrom. Neither we nor any of our affiliates, or our or their respective officers, employees, advisors or agents, make any representation or warranty, express or implied, that any transaction has been or may be effected on the terms or in the manner stated in this document, or as to the achievement or reasonableness of future projections, management targets, estimates, prospects or returns, if any. Any views or terms contained herein are preliminary only, and are based on financial, economic, market and other conditions prevailing as of the date of this document or as at the date stated in respect of that information and are therefore subject to change. We undertake no obligation or responsibility to update any of the information contained in this document. Past performance does not guarantee or predict future performance.
This document and the information contained herein do not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security, commodity or instrument or related derivative, nor do they constitute an offer or commitment to lend, syndicate or arrange a financing, underwrite or purchase or act as an agent or advisor or in any other capacity with respect to any transaction, or commit capital, or to participate in any trading strategies, and do not constitute legal, regulatory, accounting or tax advice to the recipient. We recommend that the recipient seek independent third party legal, regulatory, accounting and tax advice regarding the contents of this document. This document does not constitute and should not be considered as any form of financial opinion or recommendation by us or any of our affiliates. This document is not a research report and was not prepared by the research department of Seadrill Limited or any of its affiliates.
Table of Contents
- Executive Summary
- Updated Business Plan
- Updated Components
-
- Q3 Actuals
-
- Movement in the USD LIBOR Swap Curve
-
- Fearnley December 2017 Update
-
- 2018 Budget, Rollover Cost and Other Assumptions
• Appendix
Cleansing Presentation Case vs December Delayed Dayrate Case
Executive Summary
The Business Plan, which forms the basis for the Recapitalisation Plan being negotiated with our creditors, has been updated to reflect:
Q3 Actuals
- Movement in the USD LIBOR swap curve
- Revised Fearnley dayrate and utilisation assumptions (taken from the Fearnley December 2017 Addendum Report)
- The 2018 budget, revised rollover cost and other assumptions
- The updated Business Plan (the "Updated Business Plan") over the period 2017-2022 see revenues lower by \$1,407 million, EBITDA lower by \$499 million and cash flow (UFCF) lower by \$604 million compared to the presentation published on 12 September 2017 (the "Cleansing Presentation")(1)
- The Updated Business Plan does not draw on either IHCo cash or on the \$500 million Amortisation Conversion Election
Updated Business Plan
Updated Business Plan – December Financing Case
Key Financials
| (\$ in millions) | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | Total | Delta to Cleansing Deck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash Flow Items | ||||||||
| Revenue | \$1,892 | \$1,159 | \$2,152 | \$2,662 | \$2,939 | \$3,192 | \$13,997 | (\$1,406) |
| Opex | (\$866) | (\$637) | (\$1,025) | (\$1,107) | (\$1,220) | (\$1,280) | (\$6,134) | \$724 |
| G&A | (\$273) | (\$164) | (\$171) | (\$177) | (\$192) | (\$199) | (\$1,176) | \$183 |
| EBITDA | \$754 | \$359 | \$956 | \$1,378 | \$1,527 | \$1,713 | \$6,687 | (\$499) |
| LTM & Capex | (138) | (296) | (492) | (284) | (233) | (138) | (\$1,580) | (\$52) |
| Working Capital |
(\$127) | \$85 | (\$163) | (\$110) | (\$43) | (\$40) | (\$397) | (\$172) |
| Tax | (\$64) | (\$56) | (\$115) | (\$144) | (\$167) | (\$181) | (\$727) | \$121 |
| Unlevered FCF | 425 | 91 | 186 | 841 | 1,085 | 1,354 | 3,982 | (\$603) |
| Debt service | (1,248) | (471) | (462) | (815) | (955) | (1,125) | (5,076) | \$523 |
| New Capital / Other | 344 | 895 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 1,399 | \$27 |
| Net Cash Flow | (479) | 515 | (236) | 66 | 170 | 269 | 305 | (\$54) |
| Balance Sheet Items | ||||||||
| Bank Debt | \$5,662 | \$5,662 | \$5,662 | \$5,304 | \$4,782 | \$4,064 | \$621 | |
| New Secured Capital | - | 895 | 968 | 1,048 | 1,135 | 1,228 | (\$25) | |
| Bonds | 2,295 | - | - | - | - | - | ||
| Sale Leaseback | 787 | 689 | 592 | 494 | 397 | 299 | ||
| Total Debt | \$8,744 | \$7,246 | \$7,222 | \$6,846 | \$6,313 | \$5,592 | \$597 | |
| Cash | 890 | 1,405 | 1,170 | 1,236 | 1,406 | 1,674 | (\$54) | |
| Net Debt | \$7,854 | \$5,840 | \$6,052 | \$5,610 | \$4,908 | \$3,918 | \$650 | |
| Credit Statistics | ||||||||
| Net Debt / EBITDA | 10.4x | 16.3x | 6.3x | 4.1x | 3.2x | 2.3x | 0.4x |
- Amortisation in 2020 is less than the term sheets' 2020 amortisation of \$434mm, which reflects the true-up for amortisation paid after 1 August 2017
Key Metrics – New Business Plan vs Cleansing Deck
UFCF
Updated Business Plan – Cashflow Bridge
Liquidity After Restructuring
(\$mm)
Updated Components Q3 Actual
Q3 Actuals
Key Financials Q3 2017
| (\$ in millions) | Q3 Forecast | Q3 Actual |
Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash Flow Items | |||
| Revenue | \$440 | \$468 | \$28 |
| Opex | (205) | (209) | (\$4) |
| G&A | (\$55) | (\$69) | (\$14) |
| EBITDA | \$180 | \$190 | \$10 |
| LTM & Capex | (31) | (47) | (16) |
| Working Capital |
(39) | (172) | (\$133) |
| Tax | (24) | (7) | \$17 |
| Unlevered FCF | \$85 | (\$36) | (\$121) |
| Debt service | (265) | (265) | (0) |
| New Capital / Other | 42 | 118 | 76 |
| Net Cash Flow | (\$138) | (\$184) | (\$45) |
| Balance Sheet Items | |||
| Bank Debt | \$5,662 | \$5,662 | - |
| New Secured Capital | - | - | - |
| Bonds | 2,295 | 2,295 | - |
| Sale Leaseback | 811 | 811 | - |
| Total Debt | \$8,768 | \$8,768 | \$0 |
| Cash | 1,106 | 1,060 | (45) |
| Net Debt | \$7,662 | \$7,708 | \$45 |
| Credit Statistics | |||
| Net Debt / EBITDA | 8.6x | 8.6x | 0.1x |
- Higher EBITDA due to higher uptime, partially offset by higher operating and G&A costs for the quarter relative to forecast
- Forecast assumes flat quarterly G&A of \$55 million, main difference to actual relates to timing of costs incurred (2017 full year actual forecast: \$192 million vs full year forecast of \$220 million)
- Lower working capital due to higher prepaid expenses related to prepetition liability settlements
- Net cashflow reduction of \$45 million
Updated Components LIBOR Curve
Change in LIBOR Curve
- The cleansed business plan at the point of filing used the prevailing LIBOR swap curve at the time
- US interest rates have risen since then as shown above, leading to higher interest expense over the 5-year projection period
- This movement results in an \$86 million decrease in Unlevered Free Cash Flow during the period
Updated Components Fearnley December 2017 Update
- Fearnley released a third addendum report in December 2017 to the original report on the offshore drilling market released in February 2016
- Their updated report indicates weaker market conditions in the short to medium term and a slower recovery:
- Dayrate and utilisation forecasts are lower across the forecasted period
- Full recovery of the drilling market postponed to 2021
- This was largely driven by developments on the demand side as the prolonged downturn is keeping dayrates at the lower end of the range previously predicted
- Following the drop in oil price in late May this year, additional drilling programs were postponed over the summer, leading to a somewhat less bullish demand picture in the near term
- At the same time Fearnley noted that the probability of a future recovery has strengthened, even if timing remains difficult to predict:
- Oil market rebalancing is ongoing with price now stable within the range predicted by Fearnley
- Depletion of current fields is still a growing trend and will not be reversed without significant investment by the oil companies
- US shale has become less of a threat as the long term production volumes achievable even under optimistic assumptions are nowhere near what would be required to replace offshore production
- Offshore drilling costs have been reduced substantially
| Operating Assumptions Variance: Floaters | Operating Assumptions Variance: BE JU | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | ||||
| Uncontracted Dayrate | Uncontracted Dayrate | |||||||
| Jun 2017 | \$224 | \$315 | \$420 | \$435 | \$435 | |||
| Dec 2017 | \$224 | \$322 | \$394 | \$406 | \$428 | |||
| Delta | - | 7 | (\$26) | (\$29) | (\$7) | |||
| % | - | 2% | (6%) | (7%) | (2%) | |||
| Total Floater Utilisation |
Total BE JU Utilisation |
|||||||
| Jun 2017 | 77% | 87% | 89% | 91% | 91% | |||
| Dec 2017 | 58% | 76% | 83% | 89% | 92% | |||
| Delta | (19%) | (11%) | (6%) | (2%) | 1% |
Operating Assumptions Variance: HE JU
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uncontracted Dayrate | |||||
| Jun 2017 | \$137 | \$158 | \$215 | \$243 | \$243 |
| Dec 2017 | \$169 | \$197 | \$236 | \$253 | \$263 |
| Delta | \$32 | \$39 | \$2 | \$10 | \$20 |
| % | 23% | 25% | 1% | 4% | 8% |
| Total HE JU Utilisation |
|||||
| Jun 2017 | 67% | 90% | 90% | 90% | 90% |
| Dec 2017 | 78% | 79% | 88% | 86% | 83% |
| Delta | 11% | (11%) | (2%) | (4%) | (7%) |
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uncontracted Dayrate | |||||
| Jun 2017 | \$90 | \$97 | \$112 | \$118 | \$125 |
| Dec 2017 | \$67 | \$84 | \$94 | \$103 | \$111 |
| Delta | (\$23) | (\$13) | (\$18) | (\$15) | (\$14) |
| % | (26%) | (14%) | (16%) | (13%) | (11%) |
| Total BE JU Utilisation |
|||||
| Jun 2017 | 85% | 89% | 90% | 89% | 88% |
| Dec 2017 | 68% | 74% | 87% | 90% | 90% |
| Delta | (17%) | (15%) | (3%) | 1% | 3% |
Comments
- Floater and BE JU dayrates and utilisation revised downward
- Floater and BE JU market fully rebalanced by 2021 vs 2020 previously
- HE JU market dayrate assumptions improved throughout the forecast period although 2019+ utilisation assumptions reduced
Updated Components Impact of Budget & Rollover Assumptions
2018 Budget Update Impact
Key Financials 2018
| (\$ in millions) | 2018 Fearnley |
2018 Budget |
Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash Flow Items | |||
| Revenue | \$1,426 | \$1,159 | (267) |
| Opex | (846) | (\$637) | 209 |
| G&A | (220) | (\$164) | 56 |
| EBITDA | \$360 | \$359 | (1) |
| LTM & Capex | (220) | (296) | (76) |
| Working Capital |
39 | \$85 | 46 |
| Tax | (76) | (\$56) | 20 |
| Unlevered FCF | \$102 | 91 | (11) |
| Debt service | (482) | (471) | 11 |
| New Capital / Other | 943 | 895 | (48) |
| Net Cash Flow | 564 | 515 | (49) |
| Balance Sheet Items (as of Q4 18) | |||
| Bank Debt | \$5,662 | \$5,662 | - |
| New Secured Capital | 913 | 895 | (18) |
| Bonds | - | - | - |
| Sale Leaseback | 689 | 689 | - |
| Total Debt | \$7,264 | \$7,246 | (18) |
| Cash | 1,454 | 1,405 | (49) |
| Net Debt | \$5,810 | \$5,841 | 31 |
| Credit Statistics | |||
| Net Debt / EBITDA | 16.2x | 16.3 | 0.1x |
- Lower EBITDA due to fewer assumed operating units relative to Fearnley 2018 forecast, partially offset by reduced operating costs and G&A
- Higher LTM and capex primarily due to SPS classings and rig upgrades either for marketability or customer specific requirements
- Lower cash tax and higher working capital release due to lower projected revenue for the year
- Reduced debt service and New Secured Capital outstanding due to timing adjustment for the effective date (NSN issuance)
Rollover Cost Assumptions – Opex
The Cleansing Presentation assumed rollover opex per rig of \$130k/d in 2018, followed by a ramp-up of costs in line with the shape of Fearnley's market utilisation assumptions. Normalisation was assumed to occur in 2020
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opex | 130k/d | 135k/d | 146k/d | 152k/d | 158k/d |
| Ramp up % | 4% | 4% | 8% | 4% | 4% |
The 2018 budget update shows an average opex per rig of \$125k/d. The rampup from that point has been amended to reflect a normalised market in 2021 per Fearnley's December update
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opex | 125k/d | 130k/d | 135k/d | 146k/d | 152k/d |
| Ramp up % | - | 4% | 4% | 8% | 4% |
The Cleansing Presentation had a flat G&A assumption throughout the forecast of \$220 million per annum
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G&A | \$220m | \$220m | \$220m | \$220m | \$220m |
| Ramp up % | - | - | - | - | - |
The Updated Business Plan 2018 budget update shows G&A of \$164 million, down from \$192 million forecasted for 2017, given cost reductions achieved. Roll-over G&A costs are assumed to move in line with opex assumptions
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G&A | \$164m | \$171m | \$177m | \$192m | \$199m |
| Ramp up % | - | 4% | 4% | 8% | 4% |
Management Fees Related to SDLP and SeaMex
- Seadrill provides management services to SDLP and SeaMex
- The fees charged by SDRL represent their respective allocations in G&A and certain onshore-related opex costs and are split as follows:
| 2018 Budget/Reported | SDLP/SeaMex Related | 2018 SDRL Net | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Opex | \$636.7 million | \$14.7 million | \$622.0 million |
| G&A | \$164.0 million |
\$34.8 million |
\$129.1 million |
| Total Operating Costs |
\$800.7 million | \$49.5 million | \$751.1 million |
These fees are included in the December update, but were not included in the previous cleansing deck
The Cleansing Presentation's LTM & Capex per unit (excluding 5-year SPSs) assumptions were:
| Asset Class | LTM | Capex |
|---|---|---|
| Floaters | US\$4.0m | US\$2.0m |
| Jack-ups | US\$1.5m | US\$0.5m |
The December revision reflects the Company's actual experience over the past 3 years, which we believe is a better benchmark
| Asset Class | LTM | Capex |
|---|---|---|
| Floaters | US\$4.0m | US\$1.0m |
| Jack-ups | US\$0.8m | US\$0.5m |
Key Metrics – New Business Plan vs Cleansing Deck
UFCF
Liquidity After Restructuring
(\$mm)
Cash Hazards and Opportunities
| Hazards | Opportunities | Entity Affected / Beneficiary |
|
|---|---|---|---|
| Newbuilds guarantee settlement |
TBD | - | RigCo |
| Working capital buffer | - | +\$50 million | RigCo |
| Support for JV's |
-\$40 million | - | RigCo |
| Seadrill Partners distributions(1) | -\$40 million p.a. | - | IHCo |
| Sapura deferred consideration(2,3) |
- | +\$95 million | RigCo / NSNCo |
| Seabras Sapura J.V. dividends | - | +\$40 million p.a. | NSNCo |
-
Includes distributions from subsidiaries of Seadrill Partners to Seadrill Partners that are then up-streamed and distributions from Seadrill Ltd's direct stake in the subsidiaries of Seadrill Partners
-
As of September 30, 2017
-
NSNCo benefits post-closing, subject to a minimum outstanding balance of \$55m
Summary of the Business Plan Update
- In conducting its annual budgeting process, the Company has updated its Business Plan to reflect its 2018 budget and updated dayrate and utilisation projections
- While dayrates and utilisation are generally lower than the Cleansing Presentation throughout the projection period, the forecast anticipates a return to a normalised market by 2021
- The impact of lower dayrates and utilisation is partially offset by improved operating expense and SG&A
- Although there is a \$603 million reduction in UFCF over the forecast period, RigCo does not need to receive cash from IHCo or exercise the Amortisation Conversion Election
Appendix December Delayed Dayrate
Variance Analysis – December Delayed Dayrate Case
Operating Assumptions Variance: Floaters Operating Assumptions: HE Jack-ups 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Total Utilisation Rate Jun 2017 Financing 51% 77% 87% 89% 91% 91% Jun 2017 Delayed Dayrate 51% 77% 87% 89% 91% 91% Dec 2017 Financing 51% 58% 76% 83% 89% 92% Dec 2017 Delayed Dayrate 51% 58% 76% 83% 89% 92% Annual Uncontracted Dayrate Jun 2017 Financing \$180 \$268 \$363 \$420 \$435 \$435 Jun 2017 Delayed Dayrate \$180 \$224 \$316 \$420 \$435 \$435 Dec 2017 Financing Case \$180 \$224 \$322 \$394 \$406 \$428 Dec 2017 Delayed Dayrate \$180 \$202 \$273 \$394 \$406 \$428 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Total Utilisation Rate Jun 2017 Financing 67% 67% 90% 90% 90% 90% Jun 2017 Delayed Dayrate 67% 67% 90% 90% 90% 90% Dec 2017 Financing 67% 78% 79% 88% 86% 83% Dec 2017 Delayed Dayrate 67% 78% 79% 88% 86% 83% Annual Uncontracted Dayrate Jun 2017 Financing \$133 \$141 \$175 \$215 \$243 \$243 Jun 2017 Delayed Dayrate \$133 \$137 \$158 \$215 \$243 \$243 Dec 2017 Financing \$133 \$169 \$197 \$236 \$253 \$263
Operating Assumptions: BE Jack-ups
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Utilisation Rate | ||||||
| Jun 2017 Financing | 65% | 85% | 89% | 90% | 89% | 88% |
| Jun 2017 Delayed Dayrate | 65% | 85% | 89% | 90% | 89% | 88% |
| Dec 2017 Financing |
65% | 68% | 74% | 87% | 90% | 90% |
| Dec 2017 Delayed Dayrate | 65% | 68% | 74% | 87% | 90% | 90% |
| Annual Uncontracted Dayrate | ||||||
| Jun 2017 Financing | \$84 | \$95 | \$99 | \$112 | \$118 | \$125 |
| Jun 2017 Delayed Dayrate |
\$84 | \$90 | \$97 | \$112 | \$118 | \$125 |
| Dec 2017 Financing |
\$84 | \$67 | \$84 | \$94 | \$103 | \$111 |
| Dec 2017 Delayed Dayrate | \$84 | \$76 | \$75 | \$94 | \$103 | \$111 |
Recovery Delay
Midpoint calculation for 6 month delay
Dec 2017 Delayed Dayrate \$133 \$151 \$183 \$236 \$253 \$263
Cleansing Deck Case vs December Delayed Dayrate Case
Liquidity After Restructuring
(\$mm)
Cleansing Deck Forecast – Delayed Dayrate Updated Business Plan – Delayed Dayrate
December Delayed Dayrate Case – Key Metrics
| Key Financials | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (\$ in millions) | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | Total | Delta to Cleansing Deck |
| Cash Flow Items | ||||||||
| Revenue | \$1,892 | \$1,159 | \$1,916 | \$2,662 | \$2,939 | \$3,192 | \$13,762 | (\$1,641) |
| Opex | (\$866) | (\$637) | (\$1,025) | (\$1,107) | (\$1,220) | (\$1,280) | (\$6,134) | \$724 |
| G&A | (\$273) | (\$164) | (\$171) | (\$177) | (\$192) | (\$199) | (\$1,176) | \$183 |
| EBITDA | \$754 | \$359 | \$721 | \$1,378 | \$1,527 | \$1,713 | \$6,451 | (\$734) |
| LTM & Capex | (138) | (296) | (492) | (284) | (233) | (138) | (\$1,580) | (\$52) |
| Working Capital |
(\$127) | \$85 | (\$121) | (\$151) | (\$43) | (\$40) | (\$397) | (\$172) |
| Tax | (\$64) | (\$56) | (\$101) | (\$144) | (\$167) | (\$181) | (\$713) | \$135 |
| Unlevered FCF | 425 | 91 | 7 | 799 | 1,085 | 1,354 | 3,761 | (\$824) |
| Debt service | (1,248) | (471) | (462) | (815) | (955) | (959) | (4,910) | \$689 |
| New Capital / Other | 344 | 895 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 1,399 | \$27 |
| Net Cash Flow | (479) | 515 | (415) | 25 | 170 | 435 | 250 | (\$109) |
| Balance Sheet Items | ||||||||
| Bank Debt | \$5,662 | \$5,662 | \$5,662 | \$5,304 | \$4,782 | \$4,230 | \$787 | |
| New Secured Capital | - | 895 | 968 | 1,048 | 1,135 | 1,228 | (\$25) | |
| Bonds | 2,295 | - | - | - | - | - | ||
| Sale Leaseback | 787 | 689 | 592 | 494 | 397 | 299 | ||
| Total Debt | \$8,744 | \$7,246 | \$7,222 | \$6,846 | \$6,313 | \$5,758 | \$763 | |
| Cash | 890 | 1,405 | 990 | 1,015 | 1,184 | 1,619 | (\$109) | |
| Net Debt | \$7,854 | \$5,840 | \$6,232 | \$5,832 | \$5,129 | \$4,139 | \$871 | |
| Credit Statistics | ||||||||
| Net Debt / EBITDA | 10.4x | 16.3x | 8.6x | 4.2x | 3.4x | 2.4x | 0.5x |
- Amortisation in 2020 is less than the term sheets' 2020 amortisation of \$434mm, which reflects the true-up for amortisation paid after 1 August 2017