Accelerating growth
Capital Markets Update, 30 May 2018
Agenda Scatec Solar's Capital Markets Update 2018
| Accelerating growth |
Raymond Carlsen, CEO |
09:30 - 09:50 |
| Execution of current project portfolio |
Pål Helsing, EVP |
09:50 - 10:10 |
| Market perspectives and our approach |
Terje Pilskog, EVP |
10:10 - 10:40 |
| Break |
|
|
| Our project pipeline |
Terje Pilskog, EVP |
11:00 - 11:30 |
| Financials and funding |
Mikkel Tørud, CFO |
11:30 - 11:50 |
| Concluding remarks |
Raymond Carlsen, CEO |
11:50 - 12:00 |
| Q&A |
|
Ends around 12:20 |
Speakers
Raymond Carlsen, CEO
Pål Helsing, EVP Solutions
Terje Pilskog, EVP Project Development & Project Finance
Mr. Carlsen joined Scatec Solar in 2009 from Aker ASA, where he was responsible for the development of the company's portfolio of energy related businesses. He has more than 30 years of industrial experience from management positions.
Mr. Helsing joined the Company in 2015 from the role as President of Kongsberg Oil and Gas Technologies AS and a member of the Kongsberg Group Executive Management Team. Before that, he held several executive positions within Aker Solutions.
Mr. Pilskog joined Scatec Solar in 2012 from the position as SVP of REC Systems and Business Development in Germany. Prior to REC, he was Associated Partner at the management consulting company McKinsey & Co.
Mikkel Tørud, CFO
Mr. Tørud joined Scatec Solar in 2014 from the position as SVP Investor Relations and Business Development and member of Group Management in REC. Prior to REC he was commercial advisor in BP and management consultant in PA Consulting Group.
Accelerating growth
Raymond Carlsen, CEO
Scatec Solar – a leading emerging market player
Develops, builds, owns and operates utility-scale solar power plants
We deliver on our strategy and targets
Strong market growth
- 2018 global demand of 107 GW and China accounts for 50%
- Emerging markets representing a growing share of the total market
- Scatec Solar is active in most significant emerging markets except China and India
Annual global solar PV demand forecast - GW
- The levelized cost of solar has come down 75% since 2010 – industry scale and technology
- Solar is now the lowest cost source of energy across the sun-rich regions globally
- Storage and hybrid solutions are expected to become increasingly important for demand
- New business propositions are emerging when solar is cost competitive with base load
Cost of alternative energy sources (LCOE, USD/MWh)
We have advanced into a top 10 global independent solar PV developer
MW, operational and under development
Our success is based on our integrated business model combined with a strong entrepreneurial culture
Predictable Working Together Driving results Change makers
- Fully integrated
- Structuring and financing
- Financial discipline
-
Partnerships
-
Agile and lean
- Entrepreneurial culture
- Passionate and empowered people
- Strong talent bench
The integrated business model captures the full project value
The integrated business model is supported by our operating system
- Ensures consistency in way of working and scalability through all phases
- Secures learning and feedback to improve quality of decision making
Sustainability to mitigate risk and create stakeholder value
Sustainability is an integrated part of our business
- Manage and mitigate risk
- Identify and manage the impact of our operations
- IFC Performance Standards and the Equator Principles
Further professionalizing our sustainability work
- Integration of environmental and social work streams
- Implementation of Global Reporting Standards (GRI)
- Improvements based on lessons learned
Accelerating growth
Increase installed capacity to above 3.5 GW by end 2021
Effective execution of current project portfolio
- Complete 1.1 GW under construction as planned
- Further refine EPC approach and reduce cost
Secure growth in priority regions
- Maintain a large project pipeline
- Establish deeper market understanding in selected markets
Broaden commercial
and technology scope
• Enter Industrial and
selected markets
Commercial segments in
• New business propositions
and other technologies
to include hybrids, storage
Optimise financing and asset portfolio to enhance value
- Debt refinancing and selective asset rotation
- Implement financing structures for new business propositions
Developing 4.0 GW of project pipeline across emerging markets
Installed capacity above 3.5 GW by end of 2021
Execution of current project portfolio
Pål Helsing, EVP
Our project execution model is scalable and flexible …
In-house core competence and local in-sourced capabilities One operating system for all projects
… and we work closely with our suppliers to drive down costs
A benefit of our value chain integration – agility in practice!
Recent project example – early adaption of technology
Benefits by changing from monofacial to bifacial panel technology
- Increasing yield up to 15%
- Lower total capex by reduced installed capacity
- Increased return to project sponsors
Benefits of Scatec Solar's integrated model
- Leveraging value chain to create additional value
- De-risking new technology
- Moving faster on new opportunities
1.1 GW under construction – a NOK 8.5 billion programme
Construction start / Expected construction start Expected grid connection
Construction well under way in Malaysia and Brazil
Quantum, Malaysia – 197 MW / grid connection 2H'18 Apodi, Brazil – 162 MW / grid connection 2H'18
Construction ramping up in Honduras and Mozambique
Los Prados, Honduras – 35 MW / grid connection 2H'18 Mocuba, Mozambique – 40 MW / grid connection 1H'19
Construction start in Egypt this week – South Africa in 2H 2018
Aswan, Egypt – 400 MW / grid connection 2H'19 Upington, South Africa – 258 MW / grid connection 2H'19
On track to deliver the 1.1 GW under construction … and ready for more!
Market perspectives and our project development approach
Terje Pilskog, EVP
Utility scale solar is costs competitive with traditional base load energy sources
Capex for utility scale fixed-axis PV system
Cost of alternative energy sources (LCOE, USD/MWh)
Demand for solar is growing significantly across emerging markets
Main drivers Time-tomarket Cost of energy Energy security More foreign investments Employment and economic growth Climate treaty & national action plans
Multiple governmental drivers for solar PV demand
79 121 107 2014 2022 116 2016 2018 2020 42 Sub-Saharan Africa Europe USA India MENA Latin America China Rest of Asia
Annual global solar PV demand forecast - GW
Source: GTM Research
Corporate and industrials players notice the value of solar
Rationale for direct sourcing of solar energy Significant growth in renewable corporate PPA's
- Reliable power supply and predictable cost
- Corporate commitments to sustainability and climate change (e.g. RE100)
- External financing support
- Developers proposing and realizing projects
RE100 is a collaborative, global initiative uniting more than 100 influential business committed to 100% renewable electricity, working to massively increase demand for - and delivery of - renewable energy
Demand for storage will grow significantly as battery prices continue to fall
Market forecast for batteries and storage
- Cost of batteries is expected to drop at least 50% the next 4-5 years
- Will enable offering of broader energy solutions
- Expected to drive demand for hybrid technology solutions
Hybrid plants is expected to become a mainstream solution in emerging markets
Illustrative example
Hybrid plant with 65 % solarization and constant base load of 10 MW – average per day
The solar profile will often better match the actual consumption, i.e less diesel generation and higher solar penetration
PV and battery portion can be increased in existing systems as prices continue to drop
The energy solution offered depends on customer need
|
Fuel Saving |
Mixed Power Generation |
24/7 Solar Power |
PV in % of total power consumption |
20-30% |
40-50% |
80-90% |
| Customer need: |
Saving fuel costs |
Unstable grid / power solution and inefficient generator utilization |
Remote locations with difficult fuel supply |
| Storage solution: |
None |
Small battery mainly for power supply stabilization |
3-4 x standard PV capacity and large scale battery |
| Indicative capex: |
1 USD/W |
1.5-2 USD/W |
5-6 USD/W |
| LCOE @ 10 year payback: |
USDc 8-10/kWh |
USDc 10-20/kWh |
USDc 30-40/kWh |
System solutions will evolve over time with equipment cost reductions and commercialization
«Solarization» of fossil fuel generators represents a large market potential
Drivers of «solarization» Market potential
Fossil fuel generators represent costly power supply
- Deployed in areas with poor grid and few alternative power sources
- High electricity costs depending on fuel, logistics and engine efficiency
- HFO and large diesel plants: > USD 120/MWh
- Smaller diesel gensets: > USD 150/MWh
Solar power is cleaner and at lower cost
- More reliable power supply, especially if combined with storage
- Reduced volatility and logistics
Switching concerns can be mitigated
As technology and markets evolve - broader energy solutions will be in demand
Our project development approach
Prioritize high-growth markets
Installed and forecasted PV capacity in selected markets (MW)
- Select emerging markets are expected to install large volume of solar over the next years
- Focus on larger emerging markets or regions and build scalable and concentrated portfolios
- Avoid smaller isolated tenders
- Maintain flexible approach to capture opportunities also outside main priority areas
Offer broader energy solutions and target corporate players
Corporate (investment grade) bankable PPA
Private PPA C&I market (capex to opex)
residential offerings
• Captive, large, long-term power consumers
- Interest in securing PPAs on competitive prices
- Large consumers of power across different industries
- Customers seek energy cost efficiencies
- Mining, cement, industrial, materials, agricultural, etc.
- Smaller projects for typically specific applications (water treatment plants, irrigation, desalination)
- Standardized products, or leased out long-term
Our approach:
- Build on current business model and geographical presence
- Develop competence in the areas of storage and hybrid integration
- Focus on larger corporate PPAs and storage
- Opportunistically pursue smaller projects fitting into scalable platforms
Distance from SSO core
Regional approach to develop new opportunities
Partnership-based project origination
Large regional partners
- Access to opportunities
- Size and credibility
- Financing
- Access to authorities
Local partners
- Early development
- Land and permitting
- Understanding local conditions
Our operating system is designed to manage development risk
- Broad and cross-functional evaluation of project at each decision gate
- Work with development partners with experience from local business environments
- Ensure close dialogue with authorities and involve development banks early for project due diligence
- Seeking development grants and partnerships to reduce overall exposure
Maintain agility to move fast and be prepared for changes under way
Our project pipeline
Terje Pilskog, EVP
Developing 4.0 GW of project pipeline across emerging markets
Pipeline is developed based on different types of procurement situations
Scatec Solar's pipeline split by procurement type
- Many emerging markets have either bi-lateral or Feedin-Tariff (FiT) opportunities
- Many tenders require development of own project sites, permits and financing ('project tender')
- We seek to maintain flexible approach to capture opportunities also outside main priority areas
Latin America
- Several GW markets, e.g., Mexico, Chile, Brazil and Argentina
- Mostly based on tenders
- Deregulation of energy markets
- Opportunities for corporate PPAs across region
- Strong partnerships
- E.g. Kroma and Equinor in Brazil
- Other opportunities in Central America
Regional highlights Pipeline in Latin America
| Brazil |
147 |
| Argentina |
200 |
| Honduras* |
18 |
| Other |
104 |
| Total, MW |
469 |
- Economy is recovering with economic reforms
- GDP growth at 2%, improvement of fiscal balance and stabilized inflation has improved investor confidence
Solar in Brazil
- Currently about 1 GW installed capacity 2 GW expected by end of 2018
- 5 rounds of tenders held over the last 4 years, further tenders expected in coming years
- Attractive local financing
- Emerging market for Corporate PPAs
Macro environment Scatec Solar projects in Brazil
62 MW Corporate PPA
- Industrial 15-20 year PPA awarded to Scatec Solar & partners 85 MW project from last tender round
-
Negotiating project acquisition, may add corporate PPAs Sites for large scale solar under long-term development
-
Since election of Macri in 2015, GDP growth and international financial markets have returned
- Recent interventions and initiated IMF discussions
- The off-taker (CAMMESA) has not, even during financial crises, defaulted on energy payments
Solar in Argentina
- In 2016, Argentina implemented a law that mandates a 20% contribution from renewables by 2025
- In 2017 the RenovAR auction program was launched two auctions held - contracting more than 1.5 GW of Solar
- Next Solar auction planned second half of 2018
Macro environment Scatec Solar projects in Argentina
200 MW – two projects under negotiation;
- A project with 20 year PPA from RenovAR
- A project with 15 year PPA with an industrial group
Europe and Central Asia
- Several GW markets with FiT, some moving towards tenders
- Ukraine and Kazakhstan key priority while continue to build longer term positions
- Development in Pakistan continues
- Strong local partners in priority countries
Regional highlights Pipeline in Europe and Central Asia
| Ukraine |
400 |
| Kazakhstan |
400 |
| Pakistan |
150 |
| Other |
180 |
| Total, MW |
1,130 |
- Economic growth turning positive after conflict with Russia
- Ukraine committed to integrate with the EU energy system with ongoing electricity market reforms
- Aiming to change energy mix replace nuclear reactors and reduce supply of Russian gas – 11% renewables by 2020
Solar in Ukraine
- FiT of 15 €cents/kWh until 2030 for renewable energy embedded in law and backed by international community
- Financing from DFIs with EBRD as main lead arranger
Macro environment Scatec Solar projects in Ukraine
Regional highlights Pipeline in Africa
- Strong market fundamentals with growing populations, strong insolation, energy gap and high electricity prices
- Electricity demand expected to outgrow rest of the world
- Fragmented markets, with both large and smaller markets mostly due to grid situation
- A growing opportunity space for corporate PPAs and hybrid solutions in many markets
- Other includes projects in 10 countries across Africa
| South Africa |
602 |
|
| Egypt |
200 |
|
| Nigeria |
100 |
|
| Kenya |
48 |
|
| Mali* |
33 |
|
| Other |
622 |
|
| Total, MW |
1,605 |
|
Macro environment
- With the change in President earlier in 2018, economic growth outlook has improved significantly
- Interest rates and the currency has stabilized and the commitment to the REIPPP programme is confirmed
Solar in South Africa
- Integrated Resource Plan to be issued later in 2018, expected to include a significant portion of renewables
- Further market deregulation expected to allow direct electricity procurement for corporate and industrial consumers
Scatec Solar projects in South Africa
- 430 MW in pipeline bid in tender Round 4c
- 170 MW of sites secured for future tenders or corporate PPAs
Malakal – Our first hybrid contract
Customer
- Humanitarian hub in South Sudan, operated by an UN entity*
- Customer challenge: High energy costs based on airborne fuel
- Partner with low credit risk and large energy need
- Potential for additional projects with the UN
Project Offering
Regional highlights Pipeline in South East Asia
| Malaysia* |
170 |
| Bangladesh |
320 |
| Vietnam |
200 |
| Other |
70 |
| Total, MW |
760 |
* Of which 40 MW in backlog
- Stable economic growth of 6-8 % during recent years
- 20% of the population without access to electricity
- Current generation capacity of 16 GW needs to double by 2030 to sustain economic growth of ~7% p.a.
Solar in Bangladesh
- Target of 10% renewable energy by 2020, i.e. adding 3.1 GW by 2021
- Solar PV identified as a core part of the RE commitment
- Bilateral tariff negotiations based on a bankable PPA
- Financing available from several DFIs with current exposure to the Bangladesh energy sector
Macro environment Scatec Solar pipeline projects in Bangladesh
- 60 MW project at final approval stage by Prime Minister
- Another 60 MW submitted for proposal to the Government
- MoU with Bangladesh Economic Zone (BEZA) for 200 400 MW
A solid pipeline is supporting our ambition to accelerate growth
- Total pipeline of 4.0 GW with robust project economics
- Origination continues across all regions with long term potential
- New customer segments and business propositions to include hybrids, storage and other technologies
Financials and funding
Mikkel Tørud, CFO
Our principles for investments and financing stay firm
Transactional and operational control - SSO the lead developer and investor
D&C margins
- key contribution to equity positions
Working capital
- managed through project structuring
Moderate debt at group level - reflecting debt capacity of long term cash flows
Dividends
- 50% of free cash flow from operating power plants
In our business model value is created across several business segments
A typical 100 MW solar power plant (USDm)*
Stable project cash flows based on PPAs - allowing for a non-recourse debt structure
Managing financial risk
Value of project pipeline: NOK 1.5 million per MW
|
1.1 GW under construction |
4.0 GW in backlog and pipeline |
| Key assumptions and targets |
|
|
| Capex (USD/Watt) |
1.2 – 1.4 |
0.8 – 1.1 |
| Tariff (USDcent/kWh) |
6 – 12 |
4 – 8 |
| Average equity IRR |
15% |
15% |
| Development & Construction gross margin |
15% |
12% - 15% |
|
|
|
Equity value – average NOKm per MW: |
|
|
| Power Production and O&M (NOKm) |
1.1 |
0.7 |
| Development & Construction (NOKm) |
1.0 |
0.8 |
| Total (NOKm) |
2.1 |
1.5 |
Solid equity value across our project portfolio
New investments generate significant value from D&C and power production
|
In operation |
New capacity for 1.5 GW |
New capacity for 3.5 GW |
Total |
|
|
|
|
|
| Capacity (MW), 100% |
322 |
1,183 |
2,000 |
3,500 |
| Capex (NOKm), 100% |
5,100 |
12,900 |
14,000 – 17,000 |
32,000 – 35,000 |
Key figures - SSO proportionate: |
|
|
|
|
| SSO's economic interest |
46% |
57% |
50% – 70% |
50% – 70% |
| SSO's equity investments (NOKm) |
800 |
1,850 |
2,000 – 2,500 |
4,600 – 5,200 |
| Development & Construction CF to equity (NOKm) |
|
950 – 1,050 |
1,000 – 1,500 |
2,000 – 2,500 |
| Annual cash flow to equity Power P. & O&M (NOKm) |
170 |
260 – 310 |
300 – 400 |
750 – 850 |
| Average equity value per MW (NOKm) |
|
2.1 |
1.5 |
1.7 |
Our business plan will lift the financial results significantly
Annual revenues and EBITDA
Fully funded to reach 1.5 GW in operation by end of 2019
Scatec Solar is funded for investments in projects to reach 1.5 GW the next 18 months
Uses (NOKm) Sources (NOKm)
Capturing further value through portfolio optimisation
|
Debt refinancing |
Asset rotation |
| Drivers: |
• Debt margin declines as markets mature |
• Secondary market for renewable assets are maturing |
|
• Cash reserves reduced as power plants 'prove' performance |
• Potentially attractive pricing as long term capital seeks yield |
Scatec Solar objectives: |
• Re-finance debt in South Africa - process re-initiated |
• Selective sell downs of assets as portfolio grows beyond 1.5 GW |
|
• Seek further re-financing of project level debt as portfolio grows |
• Proceeds to be re-invested in further growth |
- 100 bps reduced cost of equity = 0.2 NOKm/MW Sensitivities: +1.9
- 100 bps reduced cost of debt = 0.2 NOKm/MW
Concluding remarks
CEO Raymond Carlsen
Accelerating growth
Effective execution of current project portfolio
Secure growth in priority regions
Broaden commercial
and technology scope
Optimise financing and asset portfolio to enhance value
Installed capacity above 3.5 GW by end of 2021
Q&A