Investor Presentation • Oct 25, 2019
Investor Presentation
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Oct-Dec 2019
This financial report contains a number of alternative performance measures (non-GAAP figures) to provide readers with additional financial information that is regularly reviewed by management, such as EBITDA and Free Cash Flow ('FCF'). These non-GAAP figures should not be viewed as a substitute for KPN's GAAP figures and are not uniformly defined by all companies including KPN's peers. Numerical reconciliations are included in KPN's quarterly factsheets and in the Integrated Annual Report 2018. KPN's management considers these non-GAAP figures, combined with GAAP performance measures and in conjunction with each other, most appropriate to measure the performance of the Group and its segments. The non-GAAP figures are used by management for planning, reporting (internal and external) and incentive purposes. KPN's main alternative performance measures are listed below. The figures shown in this financial report are based on continuing operations and were rounded in accordance with standard business principles. As a result, totals indicated may not be equal to the precis sum of the individual figures.
Financial information is based on KPN's interpretation of IFRS as adopted by the European Union as disclosed in the Integrated Annual Report 2018 and do not take into account the impact of future IFRS standards or interpretations. Note that certain definitions used by KPN in this report deviate from the literal definition thereof and should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for analyses of the results as reported und adopted by the European Union. KPN defines revenues as the total of revenues and other income. Adjusted revenues are derived from revenues (including other income) and are adjusted for the impact of incidentals. KPN defines EBITDA as operating result before depreciation (including impairments) of PP&E and amortization (including impairments) of intangible assets. Adjusted EBITDA after leases ('adjusted EBITDA AL') are derived from EBITDA and are adjusted for the impact of restructuring costs and incidentals ('adjusted') and for lease costs, including depreciation of right-of-use assets and interest on lease liabilities ('after leases' or 'AL'). KPN Gross Debt as the nominal value of interest-bearing financial liabilities representing the net repayment obligations in Euro, excluding derivatives, related collateral, and leases, taking into account 50% of the nominal va the hybrid capital instruments. In its Leverage Ratio, KPN defines Net Debt as Gross Debt less net cash and short-term investments, divided by 12 month rolling adjusted EBITDA AL excluding major changes in the composition of the Group (acquisitions and disposals). The Lease adjusted leverage ratio is calculated as Net Debt including lease liabilities divided by 12 month rolling adjusted EBITDA excluding major changes in the composition of the Group (acquisitions and disposals). Free Cash Flow (FCF) is defined as cash flow from continuing operating activities plus proceeds from real estate, minus capital expenditures (Capex), being expenditure on PP&E and software and adjusted for repayments of lease liabilities.
All market share information in this financial report is based on management estimates based on externally available information, unless indicated otherwise. For a full overview on KPN's non-financial information, referenc made to KPN's quarterly factsheets available on ir kpn.com.
Certain statements contained in this financial report constitute forward-looking statements. These statements may include, without limitation, statements concerning future results of operations, the impact of regulatory initiatives on KPN's operations, KPN's and its joint ventures' share of new and existing markets, general industry and macro-economic trends and KPN's performance relative thereto and statements preceded by, followed by or including the words "believes", "expects", "anticipates", "will", "may", "could", "should", "intends", "estimate", "plan", "goal", "target", "aim" or similar expressions. These forward-looking statements rely on a numbe concerning future events and are subject to uncertainties and other factors, many of which are outside KPN's control that could cause actual results to differ materially from such statements. A number of these factors are described (not exhaustively) in the Integrated Annual Report 2018. All forward-looking statements and ambitions stated in this financial report that refer to a growth or decline, refer to such growth or decline relative to situation per 31 December 2018, unless stated otherwise.
The impact of the adoption of IFRS 16 is unaudited and may be subject to change until the publication of KPN's Financial Statements 2019.
Summary presentation Capital Markets Day 28 November 2018
mature and dynamic
The Dutch telecom market:
Average 4G throughput of 42Mbps
98% of population has at least 100Mbps capable broadband connection
$\gg$ Fixed access regulation
Revenue growth: Europe: +0.4% Netherlands -2.2%
Focus on profitable growth segments.
Acceleration of simplification and
digitalization.
Fiber roll-out acceleration
+1 million FttH households by end 2021
Full mobile network Moving to All-IP modernization
100% 5G ready by end 2021
Lower roll-out spend due to reduced average costs per home passed
Better utilization rate supported by data driven smart regional approach
| $+15%$ | +€6 | -34% | $+9opt$ |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARPU | Churn | Broadband market share |
1 Q3 2018, >200Mbps households vs. < 200Mbps households 2 KPN brand, source: Kantar TNS 2019 - 2021 vs. 2012
From 20 to 2 converged IT stacks
From 5 core networks to 1
Simplified end-to-end organization
1 Indirect opex after leases adjusted for the impact of restructuring costs and incidentals
A premium connectivity leader, offering undisputed quality in terms of service, experience & security
We create value to our customers with technology that enables them to run their business safely anytime, anywhere.
Best smart converged infrastructure to provide high-quality connectivity
Trusted
Best-in-class, secure & smartly bundled services for exceptional customer experience
Optimally serve customers by understanding their needs and providing best-fitted propositions
Example lifetime value
Repricing at migration Reduced cost to serve Up and cross-sell services Reduced churn
1 Traditional fixed voice and legacy broadband 14 2 Management estimate
Network. Operations & IT
The best converged smart infrastructure.
Fnable innovative technologies.
Accelerate simplification of operating model.
Best household access and customer experience.
Growing converged base
and product penetration.
Focus on delivering value. Business
Converged simplified product portfolio.
Transformation of operating platform.
Lean and digital operations.
New multi-year sustainable opex reduction supports organic Adj. EBITDA AL growth.
Stable Capex envelope: substantial shift in the mix.
Organic sustainable Adj. EBITDA and FCF growth contributing to progressive dividend and deleveraging.
driving revenue stabilization
Grow base and value of converged households
Accelerate growth in convergence
Selective growth in IT
Value over volume
Grow WBA/VULA
Maintain disciplined strategy
Rationalization and simplification of portfolio.
End-to-end digitalization and automation frontend and back-end.
All-IP network and virtualization.
IT landscape rationalization.
$|T/T|$ Other $-2%$ $2%$ $-30\%$ -50% 2019-2021 $-40%$ 2016-2018 $~1 - 35\%$ $-23%$ $~18\%$ Commercial Access
Substantial shift in the mix enabling higher investments in access
| MOODY'S | Baa3 / Stable |
|---|---|
| S&P Global Ratings |
BBB / Stable |
| FitchRatings | BBB / Stable |
Net debt (excl. all leases) / Adjusted EBITDA AL
Net indirect opex savings $\epsilon$ 37m
$\epsilon$ 103m YTD 2019
Smart converged infrastructure
Successful
5G test
$\sim$ 70k FttH homes passed YTD
Recognized for sustainability efforts
Dow Jones Sustainability Index
Focus on profitable growth segments.
Acceleration of simplification and
digitalization.
Connecting more and more homes
Using latest technology
60 projects up and running $~10k$ homes passed YTD ~1Gbps First live G-PON connection with customers
Update: mobile network modernization first sites upgraded in The Hague area
1Gbps backhaul
2 antennas
Not 5G ready
~150 site configurations
$~\text{-}80\%$ Ftts
$\bigcirc$
Best household access and customer experience.
Growing converged base and product penetration.
Focus on delivering value.
Introduced a new converged proposition: KPN Hussel targeting higher Customer Lifetime Value
Introducing new benefits including unlimited mobile data and kids SIM
1 2018 restated as a result of recalibration of relative weights of underlying businesses, source: Kantar TNS
-
2 Source: Brand Finance
3 Category Telecoms, source: Retailer of the Year (Q&A)
$+5k$ converged 1,404k total converged households
$+15k$ converged base 2,246k total converged SIMs
SIM cards
1.60 SIMs per Q3 2018: 1.53
49% converged customers 62% converged 03 2018: 45%
Q3 2018: 56%
73% converged Q3 2018: 68%
Impacted by brand strategy
$\epsilon$ 48 $^{+5.4\%}$
Price increase effective from 1 June 2019
Flaty-on-y
Bundled services • Traditional voice + Digitenne $\blacklozenge$
1 Corrected for migrations to and new customers of small business propositions (7k)
Growing postpaid base KPN brand
Postpaid ARPU stable q-on-q
Mobile service revenues
$+36$ $\overline{\phantom{a}}$ $\phantom{a}$ $\phantom{a}$ $\phantom{a}$ $\phantom{a}$ $\phantom{a}$ $\phantom{a}$ $\phantom{a}$ $\phantom{a}$ $\phantom{a}$ $\phantom{a}$ $\phantom{a}$ $\phantom{a}$ $\phantom{a}$ $\phantom{a}$ $\phantom{a}$ $\phantom{a}$ $\phantom{a}$ $\phantom{a}$ $\phantom{a}$ $\phantom{a}$ $\phantom{a}$ $\phantom{a}$ $\phantom{$ Q2 2019: +17k
$-3k$ customer base all brands
€ 17 Q3 2018: €18
$-6.3\%$ y-on-y
$\epsilon$ 194m Q3 2018: € 210m
$-7.6\%$ y-on-y
continues to be impacted by strategic actions
| Q3 2019 | |
|---|---|
| Communication Services | $-8.9%$ |
| Mobile service revenues | $-77\%$ |
| $I \circ T$ | 74% |
| Broadband & Network Services | $-18%$ |
| Fixed Voice | $-21%$ |
| Other | $-17%$ |
| IT Services (a.o. security, cloud, workspace) | 1.2% |
| Professional Services & Consultancy | 9.3% |
| Total revenue | $-3.6%$ |
impacted by migrations & 'value over volume'1
1 Based on management estimates
LE customers
68% SME base
Q2 2019: 59%
45% LE base
Q2 2019: 33%
35% converged
02 2019: 34%
100% mid-2020
100% in 2020
$+7k$ net adds in 03.2019
1 Migrated from traditional fixed voice and legacy broadband services
Adjusted EBITDA after leases
Free Cash Flow
(excl. TEFD dividend)
€ 1,372m
$-1.8\%$ y-on-y
$\epsilon$ 599m
$+2.9\%$ y-on-y
$\epsilon$ 226m
$-2.2\%$ y-on-y
Q3 2018: € 1.398m
Q3 2018: € 582m
$0.32018 \cdot \in 231m$
| $\notin$ m | Q3 2018 | Q3 2019 | $\Delta$ y-on-y | YTD 2018 | YTD 2019 | $\Delta$ y-on-y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer | 748 | 731 | $-2.2%$ | 2.230 | 2,182 | $-2.1\%$ |
| Business | 520 | 502 | $-3.6\%$ | 1,589 | 1,514 | -4.7% |
| Wholesale | 157 | 166 | 5.2% | 465 | 482 | 3.6% |
| Other | $-28$ | $-26$ | -4.6% | -81 | -85 | 4.6% |
| Adjusted revenues | 1,398 | 1,372 | $-1.8%$ | 4,202 | 4,093 | $-2.6%$ |
| Adjusted direct costs 1 | 330 | 328 | $-0.7%$ | 978 | 939 | $-3.9\%$ |
| Adjusted indirect costs after leases | 486 | 446 | $-8.3%$ | 1,505 | 1,398 | $-7.1\%$ |
| Adjusted EBITDA after leases | 582 | 599 | 2.9% | 1,720 | 1,756 | 2.1% |
| Reported | ||||||
| EBITDA | 588 | 808 | 37% | 1,782 | 1,980 | 11% |
| EBIT | 202 | 429 | $>100\%$ | 635 | 839 | 32% |
| Net profit | 94 | 314 | >100% | 338 | 530 | 57% |
supported by simplification and digitalization
YTD mainly impacted by change in working capital
| $\notin$ m | Q3 2018 | Q3 2019 | $\Delta$ y-on-y | YTD 2018 YTD 2019 | $\Delta$ y-on-y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EBITDA after leases | 582 | 599 | 2.9% | 1,720 | 1,756 | 2.1% |
| Interest lease liabilities | 8 | $-11%$ | 25 | 22 | $-12%$ | |
| Depreciation right-of-use asset | 37 | 34 | $-7.6\%$ | 111 | 104 | $-5.8\%$ |
| Restructuring | -39 | $-23$ | $-42%$ | $-74$ | -93 | 25% |
| Incidentals 1,2 | 190 | n.m. | 190 | n.m. | ||
| EBITDA | 588 | 808 | 37% | 1,782 | 1,980 | 11% |
| Interest paid / received | -85 | $-97$ | 14% | $-262$ | $-265$ | $1.3\%$ |
| Tax paid / received | n.m. | $-25$ | $-7$ | $-71\%$ | ||
| Change in provisions 2 | 27 | -36 | n.m. | 36 | $-32$ | n.m. |
| Change in working capital | -16 | 8 | n.m. | -98 | $-157$ | 60% |
| Other movements (incl. TEFD dividend) 1 | $-170$ | n.m. | 44 | $-146$ | n.m. | |
| Net CF from operating activities | 515 | 513 | $-0.3%$ | 1,477 | 1,372 | $-7.1%$ |
| Capex | $-257$ | $-262$ | 2.2% | $-737$ | $-793$ | 7.6% |
| Proceeds from real estate | n.m. | 5 | $-100%$ | |||
| Repayments of lease liabilities | $-27$ | $-25$ | $-7.2\%$ | $-116$ | $-114$ | $-1.7\%$ |
| Free cash flow | 231 | 226 | $-2.2%$ | 628 | 466 | $-26%$ |
| TEFD dividend | n.m. | 54 | 24 | -56% | ||
| Free cash flow (excl. TEFD dividend) | 231 | 226 | $-2.2%$ | 574 | 442 | $-23%$ |
1 Q3 2019 and YTD 2019 incl. € 171m book profit from the sale of NLDC
₹9 2 03 2019 and YTD 2019 incl. € 20m release of revenue related provisions
1 Incl. € 171m book profit from the sale of NLDC in Q3 2019
2 Incl. € 20m release of revenue related provisions in Q3 2019 $40$
3 Incl. repayments of lease liabilities
| Outlook 2019 | $2019 - 2021$ ambitions | |
|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EBITDA AL | Slightly growing compared with 2018 | Organic growth |
| Capex | $\epsilon$ 1.1bn | Stable at $\epsilon$ 1.1bn annually |
| FCF (excl. TEFD dividend) |
At least $\in$ 700m 1 | Three-year mid-single digit $CAGR2$ driven by EBITDA AL growth |
| Regular DPS | € 12.5 cents | Progressive dividend, supported by FCF |
1 Previous outlook "Incidentally lower FCF compared with 2018 due to front-end loaded restructuring charges and adverse phasing of working capital" 42 2 Three-year CAGR calculated from the end of 2018 to the end of 2021
CSR New converged proposition Tax KPI overview Debt portfolio Treatment of hybrid bonds Fixed infrastructure Spectrum
In Collaboration with RobecoSAM
Reuse & KPN introduces improved and more recycle economical TV receiver with recycled plastic
Awards KPN again in top 3 most sustainable telecom companies in the world (DJSI)
companies RepTrak Pulse 2019
1 Industry adjusted, source: Reputation institute
| Broadband 1 Mobile 2 |
$\Box V^s$ | Entertainment ® | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Speed | $\epsilon$ / month | Data €/month | Options | $\epsilon$ / month | e.g. | |||
| Kids SIM $16B$ $7.50 \frac{2^{nd} \text{ SIM}}{\text{only}}$ | ||||||||
| 50 Mbps 42.50 | OGB | -10 | 1STB | -10 | Spotify | |||
| 100 Mbps | 47.50 | 2GB | - 15 | 4K 2.50 | Fox Sports | |||
| 200 Mbps | 50 | 5GB | 17.50 | Recording 5 | Film 1 | |||
| 500 Mbps | 55 | 10GB | 22.50 | $>1$ STB | 5 each, incl 5 recording |
|||
| Tech desk | 5 | 20GB | - 24 | $\epsilon$ 5 FMC benefit on one entertainment option |
||||
| $Il$ $Il$ $Il$ $Il$ $Il$ $Il$ $Il$ $Il$ $Il$ $Il$ $Il$ $Il$ $Il$ $Il$ $Il$ $Il$ $Il$ $Il$ $Il$ $Il$ |
1 Internet-only pricing; expert customer service desk available +€ 5/m
only
4 Free TV channels FMC benefit removed
1 Previous proposition includes mobile 10GB+4GB
2 Previous proposition includes mobile 10GB+4GB+2x 0GB+100min/text
3 Previous proposition includes mobile 4x100GB
| Cash flow P&L |
|||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regions $(\epsilon$ m) | Q3 2018 | Q3 2019 | YTD 2018 | YTD 2019 | Q3 2018 | Q3 2019 | YTD 2018 YTD 2019 | ||
| The Netherlands | $-23$ | $-42$ | $-91$ | $-103$ | $\overline{\phantom{a}}$ | $\qquad \qquad -$ | $-25$ | $-7$ | |
| Other | $-3\overline{3}$ | $\overline{\phantom{a}}$ | $-5$ | $\overline{\phantom{m}}$ | $-1$ | $\overline{\phantom{m}}$ | $-3$ | $\hspace{0.1mm}-\hspace{0.1mm}$ | |
| Total reported tax | $-26$ | $-42$ | -96 | $-103$ | -1 | $-28$ | -7 | ||
| Of which discontinued operations | $-3$ | $\hspace{0.1mm}-\hspace{0.1mm}$ | $-5$ | $\overline{\phantom{m}}$ | $-1$ | $\overline{\phantom{m}}$ | $-3$ | $\sim$ | |
| Reported tax from continuing operations | $-23$ | 42 | $-91$ | $-103$ | $\sim$ | $-25$ | -7 | ||
| Effective tax rate continuing operations | 20.2% | 11.7% | 21.3% | 16.2% |
Without one-off effects' the effective tax rate would have been ~23% in Q3 2019
For 2019, the effective tax rate is expected to be ~23%, excluding one-off effects1
1 Among others, tax law changes, settlements with tax authorities, impairments, revaluations
| Q3 2018 | Q3 2019 | |
|---|---|---|
| Household base (k) | ||
| F-M households | 1,325 | 1.404 |
| Fixed-only households | 2,139 | 1.877 |
| Total households | 3,464 | 3,281 |
| F-M penetration broadband base | 45% | 49% |
| Bundled | 2,551 | 2,518 |
| Not-bundled (BB-only) | 388 | 361 |
| Not-bundled (PSTN & Digitenne) | 525 | 402 |
| Total households | 3,464 | 3,281 |
| Net adds (k) | ||
| Broadband | -8 | $-24$ |
| IPTV | 10 | $-2$ |
| Fixed ARPU $(\epsilon)$ | 45 | 48 |
| Q3 2018 | Q3 2019 | |
|---|---|---|
| Postpaid base (k) | ||
| F-M postpaid customers | 2.032 | 2.246 |
| Mobile-only postpaid customers | 1,598 | 1,357 |
| Total postpaid base | 3,630 | 3,602 |
| F-M penetration postpaid base | 56% | 62% |
| Net adds (k) | ||
| Postpaid | $-14$ | $-3$ |
| Prepaid | -39 | -48 |
| Postpaid ARPU $(\epsilon)$ | 18 | 17 |
| Wireless service revenues $(\epsilon m)$ | 210 | 194 |
| Q3 2018 Q3 2019 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Customer base (k) | ||
| Mobile | 1,863 | 1,819 |
| Traditional Fixed voice | 310 | 193 |
| VoIP | 532 | 606 |
| Broadband | 287 | 315 |
| ARPU (€) | ||
| Mobile | 22 | 21 |
| Traditional Fixed voice | 49 | 50 |
| VoIP | 11 | 11 |
| Broadband | 73 | 69 |
1 Based on the nominal value of interest-bearing liabilities after swap to EUR, including GBP 400m hybrid bond and USD 600m hybrid bond
2 Foreign currency amounts hedged into EUR
3 Excludes bank overdrafts $50$
Each tranche of the hybrid bonds is recognized as 50% equity and 50% debt by the rating agencies
GBP and USD tranche have 60 years specified maturity, accounted for as financial liability
Coupon payments treated as regular bond coupon, hence expensed $\blacksquare$ through P&L, included in FCF
| Tranche | Nominal KPN net debt | Maturity | Rates (swapped) 1 IFRS principal | IFRS coupon | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP 0.4bn 6.875% € 460m | $\epsilon$ 230m 60 years (1st-call Mar-2020) | 6.777% | Liability | Interest paid (incl. in FCF) | ||
| USD 0.6bn 7.000% € 465m | $\epsilon$ 233m 60 years (1st-call Mar-2023) | 6.344% | Liability | Interest paid (incl. in FCF) | ||
| Total | € 925m | $\epsilon$ 463m |
1 USD tranche has semi-annual coupon payments (March / September); GBP tranche has annual coupon payments in March
| 800MHz (Paired) |
T-Mob $2*10$ |
VodZig $2*10$ |
KPN $2*10$ |
$2*30$ | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 900MHz (Paired) |
VodZig $2*10$ |
KPN $2*10$ |
T-Mob $2*15$ |
$2*35$ | ||||
| $1.8$ GHz (Paired) |
KPN $2*20$ |
VodZig $2*20$ |
T-Mob $2*30$ |
$2*70$ | ||||
| $2.1$ GHz (Paired) |
VodZig $2*14.6$ |
KPN $2*14.8$ |
T-Mob $2*10$ |
KPN $2*5$ |
VodZig $2*5$ |
T-Mob $2*10$ |
$2*59.4$ | |
| $2.6$ GHz (Unpaired) |
T-Mob 25 |
KPN 30 |
T-Mob $5 -$ |
$1*60$ | ||||
| $2.6$ GHz (Paired) |
VodZig $2*30$ |
T-Mob $2*5$ |
KPN $2*10$ |
T-Mob $2*20$ |
$2*65$ | |||
| Total | KPN 169.6MHz |
VodZig 179.2MHz |
T-Mob 230MHz |
578.8MHz |
T-Mobile including Tele2
KPN Investor Relations de ir.kpn.com
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