AI assistant
RIVCO AUSTRALIA LTD — Net Asset Value 2022
Oct 13, 2022
65706_rns_2022-10-13_2a444aae-f5ce-4694-b2c7-c2c83bd1fcb6.pdf
Net Asset Value
Open in viewerOpens in your device viewer

S E P T E M B E R 2 0 2 2
I N V E S T M E N T N A M E
Duxton Water Limited ASX Code: D2O
N E T A S S E T V A L U E ( P O S T-T A X )
$1.93 per share
I N V E S T M E N T M A N A G E R
Duxton Capital (Australia) Pty Ltd
S H A R E S O N I S S U E
119,187,629
I N V E S T M E N T U N I V E R S E
Australian Water Entitlements
W A T E R P O R T F O L I O V A L U E $382 million
S E P T E M B E R 2 0 2 2


Portfolio Managers' Update
As we enter the third month of the 22/23 Water Year (WY), wet climatic conditions have continued, posing continual challenges for the system and its users. Rainfall in September 2022 was the fifth-highest on record for Australia, and more rainfall is expected in the coming months.
On the 22nd of September, the Dartmouth dam, the largest water storage in the Murray–Darling Basin, commenced flowing over the spillway for the first time since 1996. With major storages at c.100% capacity, dam operators are balancing priorities between creating airspace to prepare for the wet outlook, and conserving water for the next dry years.
Despite the continued wet conditions and low allocation prices, we have continued to see permanent entitlement values trading at near all-time highs.
We believe this is a reflection of the long-term demand and supply drivers that continue to underpin entitlement markets that have caused entitlement values to remain stable during this period of extreme wet.
Throughout September, Duxton Water contracted two new entitlement acquisitions. We believe that these acquisitions will provide both greater flexibility in the delivery of water and future value appreciation.
While there is an increased availability of water currently in the system, low spot prices have been evident in the market. The Company is however well hedged against these low prices based on taking a proactive approach to selling down the majority of its unleased holdings early in the WY.
Further to this, given the Company's portfolio is made up of c.20% general security (GS) entitlements, greater water availability means high awarded allocations to GS entitlements. This therefore means that in wet years, the Company has greater volumes of water sell down. This therefore acts as a natural hedge for the portfolio.
There continues to be demand for leases to begin 1 July 2023 and based on the wet climatic conditions being experienced this WY, irrigators now have an excellent opportunity to lock in water security and prepare for future water seasons.
The Company is continuing to have discussions with several brokers and lessees with respect to finalising future leasing arrangements and water supply partnerships.
Lastly, the Company is pleased to be paying its eleventh consecutive and increasing dividend of 3.3 cps (fully franked) to shareholders on 28 October 2022. Duxton Water Ltd would like to thank its shareholders for their continued support.

Lachlan Campbell Portfolio Manager

Lachlan Beech Portfolio Manager
C O M P A N Y P E R F O R M A N C E
| 1 Month | 3 months | 6 Months | 12 Months | Inception |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.26% | 1.57% | 4.92% | 17.44% | 116.22% |
^These figures are based on NAV movements and include franked dividends for the period.
S E P T E M B E R 2 0 2 2
Water Lease Update
At 30 September 2022, Duxton Water has 55% of its permanent water portfolio (by value) leased to Australian farming businesses, accounting for 71% of the Company's high security portfolio (by value). The current Weighted Average Lease Expiry ("WALE") is 1.6 years. Inclusive of renewal options, this increases the WALE to 4.7 years.
During September, the Company has continued to discuss a range of lease options with a number of brokers, as well as new and existing lessees. Given the shear volume of water currently available in the system and the expectation for more rainfall in the coming months, lessees are shifting their focus to leases that commence 1 July 2023.
Duxton Water has therefore been looking forward and providing lease options to meet this demand. The Company is currently in negotiations with a number of brokers and irrigator clients with the expectation to lock in several new leases to begin 1 July 2023. Products like these provide opportunity to irrigators to lock in future water security ahead of potential dry years as well as hedging the Company's lease book.
Duxton Water continues to work towards once again achieving its long-term leasing target of 70-80%. Through long-terms leases, the Company is able to provide lessees with water security at a fraction of the price of owning the same water entitlements outright.

Dartmouth Dam spiling
W A T E R L E A S E C A S E S T U D Y : G O U L B U R N
Duxton Water recently finalised a c.1,500ML Zone 1A Goulburn Low Reliability water lease to an almond grower located in the Goulburn region, Victoria. Historically, Goulburn low reliability entitlements do not receive an annual water allocation. However, they provide irrigators with an excellent carry over capability, with a very low risk of spill. This lease will provide the lessee with the ability to take a multi-year view of their water supply strategy by utilising the carry over space attached to these entitlements.
Through this type of partnership, Duxton Water continues to enable Australian farming businesses to take a multi-year approach to managing their annual water supply strategy.

| August 2022 | September 2022 | |
|---|---|---|
| Water Entitlements | 84.8GL | 84.5GL |
| Portfolio Diversification(types) | 18 | 18 |
| Leased % of Portfolio | 55% | 55% |
| Weighted Average LeaseExpiry (WALE) | 1.7 years | 1.6 years |
| WALE (incl. renewal options) | 4.8 years | 4.7 years |
Entitlement Market Update
At 30 September 2022, Duxton Water holds 84.5GL of permanent water entitlements across 18 different asset types and classes. Throughout September, two additional parcels of water entitlements were added to the portfolio, increasing holdings by 17ML.
Permanent water pricing across the southern Murray Darling Basin (sMDB) strengthened slightly throughout September, with a weighted average increase of 0.1% (resulting in a c.15% increase since September 2021).
The Company has continued to seek opportunities that benefit the portfolio from both a sale and acquisition perspective. Deal flow in the entitlement market has increased in recent weeks with more parcels on offer.
Allocation Market Update
Whilst wet conditions have remained present reducing the requirement for water this season, allocation prices have continued to move downwards in September. It should however be noted that the Company sold down the bulk of its unleased holdings earlier in the season, meaning it has less exposure to current prices.
Allocation water has traded between $30-$40/ML in the Lower Murray, $25-$35/ML in the Goulburn, $30-$40/ML in the Murrumbidgee, and $25-$35/ML in the Upper Murray throughout the month of September.


S E P T E M B E R 2 0 2 2
Finance Update
Duxton Water's post-tax NAV increased by 1 cent during the month of September 2022 to $1.93 per share. This represents a 0.3% increase from last month. On an annualised basis, posttax NAV increased by 12% since September 2021 and 18%, including dividends.
The Company's NAV, excluding tax provisions for unrealised capital gain, also increased by 1 cent during the month to $2.23 per share.
Duxton Water's share price closed September 2022 at $1.61, a decrease of 10 cents from the end of August. However, September was challenging for the stock markets, with major indices such as the ASX 200 closing the month at -7.3%. The share price started to bounce back in early October, reaching a high of $1.71 on 10 October. Since September 2021, D2O shares have increased by 12% and have provided shareholders with a total return of18.5%, including dividends.
At 30September 2022, Duxton Water had $55m/$124m offixed debt, and the remaining debt is variable. The Company has taken the opportunity to lock into several fixed interest rate swaps to hedge against future interest rate movements. The swaps are due for expiry between 2024 and 2031. The Company continues to monitor short-term and long-term interest rates to manage its debt position.
At 30 September 2022, the Company's Net Debt to Water Assets is 31% (with a maximum Net Debt covenant of 40% in place).
| $1.93 per Share | $2.23 per Share |
|---|---|
| NAV (post tax) | NAV (pre tax) |
Share Buyback
At 30 September 2022, Duxton Water bought back a total of 1.3 million shares (equivalent to 1% of the Company), at an average price of $1.60 per share, since November 2021. The Board believes buying back shares at the current discount to NAV is in the interest of all shareholders.
Dividends
On 2 September 2022, Duxton Water was pleased to announce that it will pay its 11th consecutive and increasing dividend to shareholders of 3.3 cents per share (fully franked).
The record date for this dividend is Friday, 14 October 2022, with the payment date being Friday, 28 October 2022.
The Board of Duxton Water is once again pleased to offer shareholders the ability to participate in the Company's Dividend Reinvestment Plan.
Due to continued strong portfolio performance, the Board of Duxton Water is pleased to extend its dividend guidance to shareholders out to the second half of 2024. The Company is now targeting an interim 2024 dividend of 3.7 cents per share (fully franked).
D I V I D E N D G U I D A N C E
| Cents Per Share | Franking Target | |
|---|---|---|
| Final 2022 | 3.4 cps | Fully Franked |
| Interim 2023 | 3.5 cps | Fully Franked |
| Final 2023 | 3.6 cps | Fully Franked |
| Interim 2024 | 3.7 cps | Fully Franked |

N E T A S S E T V A L U E P E R S H A R E – S I N C E I N C E P T I O N
The Company uses an independent Fair Market Unit Value for entitlement and allocation provided by Aither Pty Ltd ('Aither') to undertake the NAV assessment. Aither's definition of fair market value is consistent with the principles of the Australian Accounting Standards Board (AASB) 13 Fair Value Measurement. Itis a non IFRS measure that is not reviewed or audited by the Company's auditor. Further information can be found at www.duxtonwater.com.au


Weather Update
Rainfall in September was the fifth-highest on record for Australia as a whole. The national average was 103% above the long-term 1961–1990 average. Queensland, New South Wales, and Western Australia's rainfall was among the ten highest on record compared with all of September since 1900. Moderate and major flood events continued in New South Wales and part of Queensland during September.
However, rainfall was below average in western Tasmania, South and West Gippsland in Victoria, and south-west Western Australia.
Across the Murray-Darling Basin, rainfall was 128% above the long-term 1961-1990 average. September rainfall in the Basin, as a whole, was the 4th highest on record.
The national mean temperature for August was 0.69˚C warmer than the long-term average for Australia. The maximum temperature exceeded the mean by 0.02˚C and the mean minimum by 1.36˚C, representing the tenthhighest on record for September.
La Niña continues in the tropical Pacific. La Niña events increase the chances of above-average rainfall for northern and eastern Australia during spring and summer. Models indicate that La Niña may peak during spring and return to neutral conditions early in 2023.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains negative, with values below the threshold (−0.4°C) since June. Most models suggest that the negative IOD is likely to persist until at least late spring, increasing the likelihood of above-average spring rain for most of the eastern two-thirds of Australia.
The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is currently positive and is expected to remain positive throughout spring and into early summer. A positive SAM increases the chance of above-average rainfall for parts of eastern New South Wales, eastern Victoria, and south-eastern Queensland.
C H A N C E O F A B O V E-A V E R A G E R A I N F A L L
N O V E M B E R 2 0 2 2 – J A N U A R Y 2 0 2 3

Source: Bureau of Meteorology
R A I N F A L L D E C I L E C H A R T ( S P R I N G )


Source: Bureau of Meteorology
S E P T E M B E R 2 0 2 2
Outlook & Storages
The November to January outlook suggests that it will be wetter than average for the eastern half of Australia, with a 60% chance of above-average rainfall. The chance increases to 75% for large parts of tropical and far northern Queensland, north-eastern New South Wales, southeastern New South Wales, Victoria, and eastern Tasmania.
Cooler days are expected in southern Queensland and large parts of New South Wales, and warmer days in Tasmania, Western Australia, and the northern coasts.
La Niña, a negative IOD, a positive phase of SAM and warmer waters around Australia all contribute to wetter outlooks overlarge parts of Australia.
River Murray inflows for September were within the highest 15% of inflows on record for September, and high streamflows are likely for October-December 2022.
In the northern and southern MDB, storages are now at 106% and 98%, respectively, compared to 82% and 89% at the same time last year. High storage levels, heavy rainfall and already wet soils increase the risk of flooding, especially in eastern Australia. Flood alerts have been raised in some areas.

D A I L Y I N F L O W S T O T H E M U R R A Y D A R L I N G B A S I N
S T O R A G E L E V E L S I N M A J O R D A M S

Murray System Daily Inflows (excl. Snowy Darling, inter-valley trade and environmental inflows) - 5 day rolling average
This announcement has been authorised for release by the Chairman of Duxton Water Limited
DISCLAIMER: This factsheet is prepared by Duxton Capital (Australia) Pty Ltd [ACN: 164 225 647; AFSL no. 450218] ("Duxton Capital (Australia)"). Duxton Capital (Australia) is the Investment Manager of Duxton Water Limited [ACN 611 976 517] ("Duxton Water"). This factsheet has been prepared for the purposes of providing general information only and does not constitute an offer, invitation, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the purchase or sale of any securities in Duxton Water. Information from this factsheet must not be issued in any jurisdiction where prohibited by law and must not be used in any way that would be contrary to local law or regulation. The terms of Duxton Water are set out in the prospectus of Duxton Water ("Prospectus"), and should there be any conflict between the terms set out in this factsheet and the Prospectus, the terms in the Prospectus shall prevail. The forecasts provided are based upon our opinion of the market as at this date and are subject to change, dependent on future changes in the market. Any prediction, projection or forecast on the economy, stock market, bond market or the economic trends of the markets is not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance. Investments are subject to risks, including possible loss of principal amount invested. The value of shares/ units and their derived income may fall as well as rise. Past performance or any prediction or forecast is not necessarily indicative of future performance. No assurance is given that the investment objective or the targets will be met. This document does not constitute investment, tax, legal or any other form of advice or recommendation and was prepared without regard to the specific objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular person who may receive it. Investors should study all relevant information and consider whether the investment is appropriate for them. If you require investment or financial advice please contact a regulated financial adviser. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained herein, nor is it intended to be a complete statement or summary of the securities, markets or developments referred to in this presentation. The Duxton Group or its affiliates may hold positions in the securities referred. Where stocks are mentioned, it should not be construed that these are recommendations to buy or sell those stocks. You are not authorized to redistribute this document nor qualified to make any offer, representation or contract on behalf of Duxton Capital (Australia) or its affiliates. Although the information was compiled from sources believed to be reliable, no liability for any error or omission is accepted by Duxton Capital (Australia) or its affiliates or any of their directors or employees. The information and opinions contained may also change. Copyright protection exists in this presentation. To the extent permitted by applicable law, none of the Duxton Group, their affiliates, or any officer or employee of the Duxton Group accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this factsheetor its contents, includingfor negligence.