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RIVCO AUSTRALIA LTD — Net Asset Value 2021
Nov 14, 2021
65706_rns_2021-11-14_2e6be2db-1cc1-4f90-b1c2-954af94108ab.pdf
Net Asset Value
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The primary investment objective of Duxton Water ("the Company") is to build a portfolio of permanent water entitlements and utilise this portfolio to provide flexible water supply solutions to our Australian farming partners. The Company generates a return by offering Irrigators a range of supply solutions including long-term entitlement leases, forward allocation contracts and spot allocation supply.
NET ASSET VALUE PER SHARE
Duxton Water's NAV at 31 October 2021 was $1.72 per share.
The after-tax NAV figure takes into account the provision for deferred tax on set-up costs and estimates of net tax provisions that may arise should the entire portfolio be disposed of on the above date. The Company does not expect to trigger these tax provisions through the turnover of these assets and expects to maintain its low entitlement turnover ratio. The NAV excluding tax provisions for unrealised capital gain is $1.94 per share. The Company's NAV is primarily the fair value of its water asset portfolio at the stated date. The Company uses an independent Fair Market Unit Value for entitlement and allocations provided by Aither Pty Ltd ('Aither') to undertake the NAV assessment.
NET ASSET VALUE PER SHARE – SINCE INCEPTION Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19 Dec-19 Jun-20 Dec-20 Jun-21 Dec-21 Jun-22 Dec-22 Jun-23 Dec-23 1.90 1.80 1.70 1.60 1.50 1.40 1.30 1.20 1.10 1.00 0.90 NAV Per Share ($) 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 NAV Dividend Paid Dividend Target
PERFORMANCE*
| 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 12 Months | Inception |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.69% | 6.08% | 9.16% | 14.49% | 92.51% |
| *These figures are based on NAV movements and include franked dividends for the period. |
INVESTMENT UPDATE
At 31 October 2021, Duxton Water is invested in approximately $330 million of water assets, with the remainder of the portfolio held in cash and net current assets. This month, Duxton Water entered into a number of permanent water purchase contracts in VIC Murray Zone 7 (HR) and SA Murray Zone 12 (HS). There are several transactions in the Company 's acquisition pipeline.
The 2021 year has seen entitlement pricing continue to strengthen for both high security and general security assets. Irrigators have continued to increase their exposure to high security water in preparation for future water years, and general security assets have drawn interest as allocations are now at 100% on general security in NSW Murray, Murrumbidgee and Lachlan. Permanent entitlement prices have increased 10.3% since the start of 2021.

Dividends Per Share (c)

The Government has taken significant steps to return water to the environment with buy-backs and infrastructure upgrade projects. So far, the Government has removed ~30% of water entitlements on issue from the consumptive pool through these initiatives. This constraint on supply combined with the significant increase in inelastic demand for water from permanent crop producers, has seen the value of permanent water assets continue to increase in 2021.
Murray Darling Basin (MDB) active storage levels are now 25% higher than long term averages. Above average rainfall and inflows to catchments has significantly improved major storages over the last 4-5 months. The Hume dam, one of Murray Goulburn's main water storages, is at 98% capacity. The MDB authority has continued to manage Hume by releasing water to help mitigate the impacts of future spill events.
On 1 October 2021, the Victorian resource manager announced, "A first deduction of 89GL will be made with today's announcement, this is about 31% of the current volume held in spillable accounts". The resource manager then announced a further spill of 165GL, or 61% of the remaining volume held in spillable accounts. Storage capacity at Burrinjuck and Blowering dams, Murrumbidgee's main storages, are both at 98%, with current air space management and supplementary events taking place. A low risk of spill has now been declared in the Goulburn system.
Duxton Water has continued to work alongside its farming partners throughout October. The Company has continued to provide its range of water supply products to the market. Duxton Water is committed to supporting irrigators through these conditions by offering long-term water leases, spot allocation sales, forward contracts and carry over products.
ENTITLEMENT MARKET
Duxton Water is engaged in building a targeted portfolio of water entitlements predominantly located across the southern MDB. The Company has invested in both surface and groundwater assets. At 31 October 2021, the Company holds approximately 80.1GL of water entitlements across 18 different asset types and classes.
Entitlement pricing across the southern MDB strengthened during October 2021, with a weighted average increase of 2.3% seen across the portfolio. Increased demand for entitlements has continued to build as an array of larger permanent crop producers have entered the market with the view to improving their longterm water security. Small to medium sized irrigators have also continued to be active in the market to prepare for future water years. Australian irrigators continue to be the greatest beneficiaries from water entitlement price increases, as they collectively own the majority of water entitlements on issue.
On 20 November 2020, the Victorian Government released a report* on water market trends and drivers in the southern MDB. This report delivered further analysis on expected future pricing impacts on allocation markets, due to increased horticulture development and past and future government water recovery initiatives
The key findings of this report indicated that with the impact of these structural demand and supply shifts, and a repeat of the last 15 years of resource availability, it is likely the weighted average price of water will be significantly above what has been experienced over the last 15 years.
The Company uses an independent Fair Market Unit Value for allocations and dry entitlements (without allocation) provided by Aither to undertake the NAV assessment.
Notable entitlement pricing movements through October 2021:
- 2.5% in NSW Murrumbidgee HS (8% of portfolio)
- 6.8% in NSW Murrumbidgee GS (6% of portfolio)
- 2.3% in VIC Murray (below choke) HR (11% of portfolio)
- 1.4% in SA Murray (below choke) HS (10% of portfolio)

ALLOCATION MARKET
Allocation pricing softened throughout October. This came on the back of irrigators withholding from the market in anticipation for greater rainfall. Improved dam storage levels also caused irrigators to pull back from the market in hope of greater allocations being awarded to high and general security entitlements. At 1 November 2021, 100% allocations have been made to permanent entitlements in NSW, VIC, and SA Murray, as well as the NSW Murrumbidgee and Lachlan systems. As a result, prices traded between $110-$120/ ML in the Lower Murray, $95-$105/ML in the Goulburn and between $90-$100/ML in the Murrumbidgee and Upper Murray.
Duxton Water has continued to deliver on forward allocation sale contracts throughout October that were contracted earlier in the 20/21 water year. These forward allocation sale contracts benefit irrigators by providing a guaranteed supply of water at a predetermined price. They also provide Duxton Water with a visible revenue stream that hedges the Company's unleased portion of the portfolio against future allocation pricing movements.

DIVIDENDS
The Board of Duxton Water is committed to providing shareholders with a bi-annual dividend. On 29 October 2021, Duxton Water paid its ninth successive and increasing dividend to Shareholders of 3.1 cents per share (franked to 100%). The Board of Duxton Water was pleased to see continued support from Shareholders who elected to participate the Company's Dividend Re-investment Plan (DRP).
The Board maintains its commitment to providing shareholders with a bi-annual dividend, franked to the maximum extent possible.
With the Company's high percentage of leased entitlements and visible revenue streams, the Board is pleased to reaffirm targets for the following four dividends.
The Company has provided the following fully franked dividend targets:
- 3.2 cents ($0.032) as the final 2021 dividend;
- 3.3 cents ($0.033) as the interim 2022 dividend; and
- 3.4 cents ($0.034) as the final 2022 dividend.
- 3.5 cents ($0.035) as the interim 2023 dividend.
Dividend targets are to be paid in the following reporting periods.
LEASES
Through long-term leasing arrangements, Duxton Water is able to satisfy the water requirements of its irrigator partners, enabling them to risk manage a key input into their business. Long-term water leases give irrigators a cost-effective way to access water and provide water security as they can be guaranteed a water allocation every year at a fixed cost.
At 31 October 2021, Duxton Water has 68% of its permanent water portfolio leased to Australian farming businesses. This represents 78% of the Company's high security entitlement holding.
The Company is currently in discussions with a number of existing lessees to renew their current leases as well as engaging with new potential lessees looking for long term water security for their businesses.
The current weighted average lease expiry ("WALE") is 1.5 years. Inclusive of renewal options this increases the WALE to 4.1 years. The Company continues to work towards its long-term goal of having 70-80% of the portfolio under lease.

DAILY INFLOWS TO THE MDB
Murray System Daily Inflows (excl. Snowy Darling, inter-valley trade and environmental inflows) - 5 day rolling average

CHANCE OF ABOVE-AVERAGE RAINFALL
December 2021 – February 2022

MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK
Rainfall for October was above average for some parts of Australia, with a number of severe storms seen across the eastern Australia, including the largest verified hailstones on record. That being said, rainfall across the MDB region was 20% below average. Root zone soil moisture was above average for most parts of the north, south-east and south-west of the country following recent rainfalls. On the back of average rainfall and above average soil moistures, storages across southern Australia continued to fill.
The Bureau of Meteorology ("BOM") has confirmed the tropical Pacific Ocean has continued to cool, increasing the chance of a La Niña to form this year. Continued cooling is expected in the coming months. This change in sea temperature resulted in the BOM raising their ENSO Outlook from La Niña watch to La Niña alert. The BOM has forecast a 70% chance of La Niña forming this year.
Total Murray Goulburn Lake Eildon Menindee Lakes Lake Victoria Hume Dartmouth Total Murrumbidgee Blowering Burrinjuck 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 91% 64% 84% 68% 100% 26% 96% 92% 98% 80% 82% 60% 98% 83% 98% 84% 98% 82% 2021 2020
STORAGE LEVELS IN MAJOR DAMS
This announcement has been authorised for release by the Chairman of Duxton Water Limited.
The BOM expects the current negative Indian Ocean Dipole ("IOD") event to weaken during November. However warm waters to the north and north-west of Australia may still cause significant rainfall across eastern parts of Australia.
As a result, the December to February rainfall outlook suggests wetter conditions for much of the eastern two-thirds of Australia. Streamflows are forecast to be near-median to high for most forecast locations through to December. If soil moisture and streamflows are high, and catchments are full, the outlook for above average rainfall indicates an increased risk of flooding, particularly in parts of south-eastern Australia. December to February daytime temperatures are likely to be warmer than average across the north and west of Australia. Night-time temperatures are likely to be warmer than average across the country.
ACCC
On 26 March 2021, the ACCC released the final report into the Murray Darling Basin Water Markets. The ACCC spent almost a year reviewing the markets' operation and engaging with key stakeholders. The Commission has had an ongoing role in monitoring the Australian Water Markets, having issued reports on its operation since 2012.
Duxton Water actively participated in the ACCC inquiry and supports any efforts to provide further transparency and benefits to participants of the Australian water market. Duxton Water believes the report is a thorough and well-balanced report.
The Final Report has identified opportunities to improve the governance, regulatory and operational frameworks that support the Australian water markets. We believe that a consistent and committed focus in these areas will benefit all stakeholders.
We note the ACCC stated that:
"Investors provide benefits to water markets. They provide new sources of capital to irrigated agriculture, increase water market liquidity and provide a range of water products which help irrigators to manage water supply risks".
The ACCC also stated it does not support a return to the system where water ownership was tied to land.
Duxton Water is managed by the Australian owned Duxton Group, which actively manages farms throughout Australia, producing a variety of agricultural commodities including wine grapes, dairy, walnuts, dried fruit, apples and grain. As an agricultural producer, irrigator and water product supplier, the Duxton Group understands the importance of water in the development of the Australian agricultural sector. Company's water is actively used by farmers.
VALUATION METHODOLOGY
The Company uses an independent Fair Market Unit Value for entitlement and allocation provided by Aither Pty Ltd ('Aither') to undertake the NAV assessment. Aither's definition of fair market value is consistent with the principles of the Australian Accounting Standards Board (AASB) 13 Fair Value Measurement. It is a non IFRS measure that is not reviewed or audited by the Company's auditor. Further information can be found at www.duxtonwater.com.au
DISCLAIMER: This factsheet is prepared by Duxton Capital (Australia) Pty Ltd [ACN: 164 225 647; AFSL no. 450218] ("Duxton Capital (Australia)"). Duxton Capital (Australia) is the Investment Manager of Duxton Water Limited [ACN 611 976 517] ("Duxton Water"). This factsheet has been prepared for the purposes of providing general information only and does not constitute an offer, invitation, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the purchase or sale of any securities in Duxton Water. Information from this factsheet must not be issued in any jurisdiction where prohibited by law and must not be used in any way that would be contrary to local law or regulation. The terms of Duxton Water are set out in the prospectus of Duxton Water ("Prospectus"), and should there be any conflict between the terms set out in this factsheet and the Prospectus, the terms in the Prospectus shall prevail. The forecasts provided are based upon our opinion of the market as at this date and are subject to change, dependent on future changes in the market. Any prediction, projection or forecast on the economy, stock market, bond market or the economic trends of the markets is not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance. Investments are subject to risks, including possible loss of principal amount invested. The value of shares/ units and their derived income may fall as well as rise. Past performance or any prediction or forecast is not necessarily indicative of future performance. No assurance is given that the investment objective or the targets will be met. This document does not constitute investment, tax, legal or any other form of advice or recommendation and was prepared without regard to the specific objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular person who may receive it. Investors should study all relevant information and consider whether the investment is appropriate for them. If you require investment or financial advice please contact a regulated financial adviser. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained herein, nor is it intended to be a complete statement or summary of the securities, markets or developments referred to in this presentation. The Duxton Group or its affiliates may hold positions in the securities referred. Where stocks are mentioned, it should not be construed that these are recommendations to buy or sell those stocks. You are not authorized to redistribute this document nor qualified to make any offer, representation or contract on behalf of Duxton Capital (Australia) or its affiliates. Although the information was compiled from sources believed to be reliable, no liability for any error or omission is accepted by Duxton Capital (Australia) or its affiliates or any of their directors or employees. The information and opinions contained may also change. Copyright protection exists in this presentation. To the extent permitted by applicable law, none of the Duxton Group, their affiliates, or any officer or employee of the Duxton Group accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this factsheet or its contents, including for negligence.