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RIVCO AUSTRALIA LTD — Net Asset Value 2020
Jan 14, 2020
65706_rns_2020-01-14_d829fecb-e692-4b6e-bed1-cc891144f2d2.pdf
Net Asset Value
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The primary investment objective of Duxton Water is to build a portfolio of permanent water entitlements and utilise this portfolio to provide flexible water supply solutions to our Australian farming partners. The Company generates a return by offering irrigators a range of supply solutions including long term entitlement leases, forward allocation contracts and spot allocation supply.
NET ASSET VALUE PER SHARE
Duxton Water's NAV at 31 December 2019 was $1.76 per share.
The after tax NAV figure takes into account the provision for deferred tax on set-up costs and estimates of net tax provisions that may arise should the entire portfolio be disposed of on the above date. The Company does not expect to trigger these tax provisions through the turnover of these assets and expects to maintain its low entitlement turnover ratio. The NAV excluding tax provisions for unrealised capital gain is $2.00. NAV is calculated based on an independent monthly portfolio valuation performed by Aither Pty Ltd ("Aither").
NET ASSET VALUE PER SHARE – SINCE INCEPTION

PERFORMANCE*
| 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 12 Months | Inception |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.09% | 9.69% | 16.66% | 33.95% | 80.51% |
*These figures are based on NAV movements and include franked dividends for the period.
INVESTMENT UPDATE
At 31 December 2019, Duxton Water Ltd is invested in approximately ~$334.56 million of water assets with the remainder of the portfolio held in cash and net current assets. The Company has approximately 522ML ($3.1 million) of water entitlements in its acquisition pipeline at 31 December 2019.
The uplift in the value of the Company's water assets portfolio through 2019 has been reflective of market pricing flowing through to the independent valuation of the portfolio and further entitlement acquisitions through December. The value uplift seen in permanent water entitlements reflects long-term drivers rather than the drought currently being experienced. Irrigators have over the last 10 years, significantly enhanced their marginal return per megalitre through both more efficient use of water and conversion to higher value commodities. At the same time, we have seen significant steps taken to return water to the environment with the Government buying back between 20-22% of entitlements that were previously available to the consumptive pool. The combined impact has seen stronger demand for a reducing available water supply
Entitlement Portfolio Value by Region 68% 13% <4% 15% Murray Murrumbidgee Goulburn Lachlan





and subsequent increased asset prices. Irrigators themselves have been the greatest beneficiaries from this capital appreciation as they collectively own the majority of water entitlements on issue.
The Bureau of Meteorology has reported that December 2019 was Australia's warmest and 2019 the driest year on record. This year was the third consecutive dry year across the Murray-Darling Basin which resulted in below average inflows. For the Murray-Darling Basin as a whole, area-averaged rainfall for the 2019 calendar year was the lowest on record and we have seen further drawdown of storage reserves to meet water delivery requirements. Storages through December in the Southern Connected MDB fell by 340GL. The current volume of water available within the Murray-Goulburn system is 35% of storage capacity levels; 15% lower than 12 months ago. Northern basin storage levels are currently 7%, 13% lower than 12 months ago.
Duxton Water continues to support its irrigation farming partners into the 19/20 water year. This involves the provision of leases to over 70 family farming operations and corporate businesses.
The Company actively manages its allocation holding in order to deliver on demand for spot allocation sales, meet its obligation for the provision of forward allocation sales and deliver on new entitlement leased arrangements. With the continuing dry conditions, visible water supply through the provision of these products is a critical tool that irrigators use to risk manage their water requirement. In the offering of these products, the Company supports market liquidity and risk management options for our irrigation partners.
ENTITLEMENT MARKET
Duxton Water Ltd is engaged in building a targeted portfolio of water entitlements predominantly across the southern Murray Darling Basin. The Company has invested in both surface and ground water assets. At 31 December 2019, the Company holds approximately 83GL of water entitlements across 20 different asset types and classes.
Ongoing maturity of permanent plantings has seen greater water demand from high value crop industries such as almonds and citrus. Demand for long-term water security such as high security entitlement ownership and long-term leases continues to increase. The Company's view in this regard has been further supported by a new report released by the Victorian Government (www.waterregister.vic.gov.au/) which indicates that demand by the horticultural industries is estimated to be 55% greater at crop maturity than ABARES have previously estimated*.
Aither Pty Ltd values the Duxton Water Ltd portfolio on a monthly basis on a dry (without allocation) equivalent basis. There were notable movements in values and are shown below:
* https://waterregister.vic.gov.au/images/documents/Water-Supply-and-Demand-Report\_Aither\_FINAL.pdf
SOUTHERN BASIN
- 3.1% in NSW Murray 11 GS (~3.6% of portfolio)
- 2.6% in NSW Murrumbidgee 13 GS (~4% of portfolio)
- 2% in NSW Murrumbidgee 13 HS (~8.2% of portfolio)
- 0.8% in Vic 7 Murray HR (~12.1% of portfolio)
- 4.5% in NSW Murray 10 GS (~6.6% of portfolio)
- 2.2% in VIC 1A Goulburn (~14.7% of portfolio)
NORTHERN BASIN
There was no change in northern pricing.
ALLOCATION MARKET
Allocation prices remained stable through much of December however prices firmed in the Murrumbidgee, Goulburn and above choke Murray towards the end of the month ahead of limited out trade from these regions to the below choke Murray. Pricing in the below choke Murray through the end of December was trading between $830-860/ML, with Murrumbidgee at $775- 800/ML and Goulburn and above choke Murray around $660-700/ML
With the dry outlook, demand for allocation is likely to remain strong through Summer and into autumn. From mid-February, the State natural resources managers will provide their first insights into 2020/2021 resource availability.
LEASES
No new leases were entered into in December. The Company does however continue to work with a number of farming partners in meeting their 2019/2020 requirements and looking ahead to the 2020/2021 water year.
The leased portion of the water entitlement portfolio currently sits at ~66%. This represents ~78% of the Company 's high security entitlement holding.
The current weighted average lease expiry (WALE) remains at 3.3 years. Inclusive of renewal options this pushes the WALE to 5.5 years. The Company continues to work towards its long-term goal of having 70-80% of the portfolio under lease.

DUXTON WATER PORTFOLIO – SMDB EXPOSURE
| Interstate Water Trading Zones | ||
|---|---|---|
- 1 Greater Goulburn 3 – Lower Goulburn
- 4a Part Campaspe
- 4c Lower Campaspe 5a – Part Loddon
- 6 Vic Murray above Barmah Choke
- 6b Lower Broken Creek
- 7 Vic Murray from Barmah Choke to SA Border
- 10 NEW Murray above Barmah Choke
- 11 NSW Murray below Barmah Choke
- 12 South Australia Murray 13 – Murrumbidgee
- 14 –Lower Darling
- 15 Lachlan 16 – Lower Lachlan Groundwater
- 17 SA Mallee Groundwater Murray Darling Basin
- River

DIVIDENDS & BUY BACK
On 10 September 2019, the Company announced a share buyback. As of 31 December 2019, the Company had purchased 1,569,385 shares at an average price of $1.432/share. The Board believes the purchase of the Company's shares at the current discount to NAV is in the interest of all shareholders.
The Board maintains its commitment to providing our shareholders with a bi-annual dividend and has reaffirmed a target of paying a fully franked final dividend of 2.8 cents ($0.028) in March 2020. With the increased forward-looking leasing revenue, the Company is now in a position to provide a targeted figure for the interim dividend of 2.9 cents ($0.029), fully franked, expected to be paid in September 2020.
STORAGE LEVELS IN MAJOR DAMS

DAILY INFLOWS TO THE MDB



MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK
The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) has reported that December 2019 was Australia's warmest and driest year on record and marks the end to the third consecutive dry year across the Murray-Darling Basin.
The warm and dry conditions Australia has experienced over the last several months has been due to weather conditions such as the very strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole and the negative Southern Annular Mode to our South. While these drivers are now starting to weaken, the effects of these drivers are likely to linger as we enter summer with very dry soils. Looking forward into summer, both daytime and nightime temperatures are very likely to be above average across Australia over the next 3 months however the rainfall outlook remains neutral.
CHANCE OF ABOVE-AVERAGE RAINFALL
JANUARY 2020 – MARCH 2020

Inflows have tracked significantly below average throughout 2019. This has delivered little improvement in resource availability and we have seen a net reduction in storage levels since November. In the northern and southern MDB, storages are now at 7% and 35%, compared to 20% and 50% this time last year.
Within Victoria and South Australia, a conservative approach to their water resource management has enabled them to deliver increased allocation on the back of small resource improvements. As of the 1st of December, South Australian irrigators have now received 100% allocation whilst Victorian Murray and Goulburn irrigators have received 56% and 66% respectively. NSW Murray and Murrumbidgee HS licences received 95% and 97% respectively on the 1 July 2019. NSW Murrumbidgee GS licences have received an allocation of 6% for 2019, however resource deficits in the NSW Murray no allocation to Murray GS licence holders for the second year in a row.
ACCC
Duxton Water is both supportive, and actively participating in the ACCC Inquiry into the Southern Murray Darling Basin water market. This is an extension to the existing role the ACCC have performed in monitoring and reporting on the market development since 2012. 100% of the Company's assets are deployed to support irrigators within this region, through its partnerships with over 70 irrigator business in the delivery of entitlement leases and countless other irrigators through the delivery of spot and forward allocation products. These products deliver irrigators with both capital and water supply risk management capabilities and the Company is proud of the role that it plays in supporting the development of Australian Irrigated Agriculture.
VALUATION METHODOLOGY
Aither undertake a monthly valuation of the Duxton Water portfolio. Total assets of the Company are valued based on an assessment of fair market value. Aither has adopted the Australian Accounting Standards Board (AASB) 13 Fair Value Measurement definition of fair value. Further information can be found on www.duxtonwater.com.au
DISCLAIMER: This factsheet is prepared by Duxton Capital (Australia) Pty Ltd [ACN: 164 225 647; AFSL no. 450218] ("Duxton Capital (Australia)"). Duxton Capital (Australia) is the Investment Manager of Duxton Water Limited [ACN 611 976 517] ("Duxton Water"). This factsheet has been prepared for the purposes of providing general information only and does not constitute an offer, invitation, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the purchase or sale of any securities in Duxton Water. Information from this factsheet must not be issued in any jurisdiction where prohibited by law and must not be used in any way that would be contrary to local law or regulation. The terms of Duxton Water are set out in the prospectus of Duxton Water ("Prospectus"), and should there be any conflict between the terms set out in this factsheet and the Prospectus, the terms in the Prospectus shall prevail. The forecasts provided are based upon our opinion of the market as at this date and are subject to change, dependent on future changes in the market. Any prediction, projection or forecast on the economy, stock market, bond market or the economic trends of the markets is not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance. Investments are subject to risks, including possible loss of principal amount invested. The value of shares/ units and their derived income may fall as well as rise. Past performance or any prediction or forecast is not necessarily indicative of future performance. No assurance is given that the investment objective or the targets will be met. This document does not constitute investment, tax, legal or any other form of advice or recommendation and was prepared without regard to the specific objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular person who may receive it. Investors should study all relevant information and consider whether the investment is appropriate for them. If you require investment or financial advice please contact a regulated financial adviser. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained herein, nor is it intended to be a complete statement or summary of the securities, markets or developments referred to in this presentation. The Duxton Group or its affiliates may hold positions in the securities referred. Where stocks are mentioned, it should not be construed that these are recommendations to buy or sell those stocks. You are not authorized to redistribute this document nor qualified to make any offer, representation or contract on behalf of Duxton Capital (Australia) or its affiliates. Although the information was compiled from sources believed to be reliable, no liability for any error or omission is accepted by Duxton Capital (Australia) or its affiliates or any of their directors or employees. The information and opinions contained may also change. Copyright protection exists in this presentation. To the extent permitted by applicable law, none of the Duxton Group, their affiliates, or any officer or employee of the Duxton Group accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this factsheet or its contents, including for negligence.