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RIVCO AUSTRALIA LTD — Net Asset Value 2020
Feb 9, 2020
65706_rns_2020-02-09_922649e6-dad0-4c11-8929-00636515fd0d.pdf
Net Asset Value
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Net Asset Value per Share ASX CODE (Shares) D20 Shares on Issue (January) 119,768,900
The primary investment objective of Duxton Water is to build a portfolio of permanent water entitlements and utilise this portfolio to provide flexible water supply solutions to our Australian farming partners. The Company generates a return by offering irrigators a range of supply solutions including long term entitlement leases, forward allocation contracts and spot allocation supply.
NET ASSET VALUE PER SHARE
audited by the Company's auditor.
Duxton Water's NAV at 31 January 2020 was $1.78 per share.
The after tax NAV figure takes into account the provision for deferred tax on set-up costs and estimates of net tax provisions that may arise should the entire portfolio be disposed of on the above date. The Company does not expect to trigger these tax provisions through the turnover of these assets and expects to maintain its low entitlement turnover ratio. The NAV excluding tax provisions for unrealised capital gain is $2.01. The Company's NAV is primarily the fair value of its water asset portfolio at the stated date. The Company uses independent Fair Market Unit Values for entitlements and allocations provided by Aither Pty Ltd ("Aither") to undertake the NAV assessment. It is a non IFRS measure that is not reviewed or
NET ASSET VALUE PER SHARE – SINCE INCEPTION

PERFORMANCE*
| 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 12 Months | Inception |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.07% | 3.68% | 16.82% | 25.94% | 82.81% |
*These figures are based on NAV movements and include franked dividends for the period.
INVESTMENT UPDATE
At 31 January 2020, Duxton Water Ltd is invested in approximately ~$345.51 million of water assets with the remainder of the portfolio held in cash and net current assets. The Company has approximately 296ML ($1.8 million) of water entitlements in its acquisition pipeline at 31 January 2020.
The value uplift that we have seen in permanent water entitlements reflects long-term drivers rather than the drought currently being experienced. Irrigators have over the last 10 years, significantly enhanced their marginal return per megalitre through both more efficient use of water and conversion to higher value commodities. At the same time, we have seen significate steps taken to return water to the environment with Government purchase of between 20-22% of entitlements that were previously available to the consumptive pool. The combined impact has seen stronger demand for a reducing available water supply and subsequent increased asset prices. Irrigators themselves have been the greatest beneficiaries from this capital appreciation as they collectively own the majority of Water Entitlement on issue in the market.


Water Portfolio Diversification



Net Asset Value per Share
ASX CODE (Shares) D20 Shares on Issue (January) 119,768,900
2017-19 had the lowest three-year rainfall on record and while January 2020 had average rainfall it is still very dry across many regions. Large areas of the Murray-Darling Basin have had serious, severe or record rainfall deficiencies since this time last year. We have seen further drawdown of water reserves to meet delivery requirements with storages through January in the Southern Connected MDB falling by 385GL. The current volume of water available within the Murray-Goulburn system is 33% of storage capacity levels; 11% lower than 12 months ago. Northern basin storage levels are currently 7%, 7% lower than 12 months ago.
Duxton Water continues to support its irrigation farming partners into the 19/20 water year. This involves the provision of leases to over 70 family farming and corporate businesses. While many irrigators focus is currently on harvest, attention is being paid to the emerging conditions and supply ahead of the 20/21 water year. 20/21 allocation forecasts will be provided on the 17th of February for NSW and Victoria.
The Company actively manages its allocation holding in order to deliver on demand for spot allocation sales, meet its obligation for the provision of forward allocation sales and deliver on new entitlement leased arrangements. With the continuing dry conditions, visible water supply through the provision of these products is a critical tool that irrigators use to risk manage their water requirement. In the offering of these products, the Company supports market liquidity and risk management options for our irrigation partners.
ENTITLEMENT MARKET
Duxton Water Ltd is engaged in building a targeted portfolio of water entitlements predominantly across the southern Murray Darling Basin. The Company has invested in both surface and ground water assets. At 31 January 2020, the Company holds approximately 83,388 ML of water entitlements across 19 different asset types and classes.
With the dry conditions over the last two years resulting in very little or no allocation received on NSW General Security Entitlement, we have seen an increasing amount of these assets come to market as Irrigators manage cash flow and capital. This has resulted in a 13% decrease in the value of these assets over the last 12 months. The Company maintains that having a mix portfolio of both High and General Security Entitlements will deliver a balance return across the climatic cycle.
Ongoing maturity of permanent plantings has seen greater water demand from high value crop industries such as almonds and citrus. Demand for long-term water security such as high security entitlement ownership and long-term leases continues to increase. The Company's view in this regard has been further supported by a new report released by the Victorian Government (www.waterregister.vic.gov.au/) which indicates that demand by
* https://waterregister.vic.gov.au/images/documents/Water-Supply-and-Demand-Report\_Aither\_FINAL.pdf
the horticultural industries is estimated to be 55% greater at crop maturity than ABARES have previously estimated*.
Aither Pty Ltd values the Duxton Water Ltd portfolio on a monthly basis on a dry (without allocation) equivalent basis. There were notable movements in values and are shown below:
SOUTHERN BASIN
- 7.1% in SA Murray HS (~8.6% of portfolio)
- 3.2% in NSW Murrumbidgee 13 HS (~8.4% of portfolio)
- 2.6% in NSW Murrumbidgee 13 GS (~4.7% of portfolio)
- 2.4% in NSW Murray 11 HS (~19.7% of portfolio)
- 2.0% in Vic 6 Murray HR (~11.3% of portfolio)
NORTHERN BASIN
There was no change in northern pricing.
ALLOCATION MARKET
Allocation prices have softened through the end of January and into February. Further opening of trade between the Murrumbidgee and Goulburn Rivers has delivered further supply to the Below Choke Murray Region.
Pricing in the below choke Murray and Murrumbidgee through the end of January was trading between $700-750/ML, with the Goulburn and above choke Murray around $650-700/ML
LEASES
No new leases were entered into in January; however, the Company continues to work with a number of farming partners in meeting their 2019/20 requirements and looking ahead to the 2020/21 water year.
The leased portion of the water entitlement portfolio currently sits at ~66%. This represents ~78% of the Company 's high security entitlement holding.
The current weighted average lease expiry (WALE) remains at 3.2years. Inclusive of renewal options this pushes the WALE to 5.44 years. The Company continues to work towards its longterm goal of having 70-80% of the portfolio under lease.


Net Asset Value per Share
ASX CODE (Shares) D20 Shares on Issue (January) 119,768,900
DIVIDENDS & BUY BACK
On 10 September 2019, the Company announced a share buyback. As of 31 January 2020, the Company had purchased 1,720,950 shares at an average price of $1.432/share. The Board believes the purchase of the Company's shares at the current discount to NAV is in the interest of all shareholders.
The Company will pay a fully franked final dividend on the 30th of March 2020 of 2.8 cents ($0.028) per share.
The Board maintains its commitment to providing our shareholders with a bi-annual dividend and with the increased forward-looking leasing revenue, the Company is also now in a position to provide a targeted figure for the interim dividend of 2.9 cents ($0.029), fully franked, expected to be paid in September 2020 and a 3.0 cents ($0.03), fully franked, expected to be paid in March 2021.
STORAGE LEVELS IN MAJOR DAMS

DAILY INFLOWS TO THE MDB

Murray System Daily Inflows (excl. Snowy Darling, inter-valley trade and environmental inflows) -
DUXTON WATER LTD DUXTON HOUSE. 7 POMONA ROAD STIRLING SA AUSTRALIA 5152 [+61]8 8130 9500

Net Asset Value per Share ASX CODE (Shares) D20 Shares on Issue (January) 119,768,900
MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK
January 2020 has been a month of extreme weather events, with Australia experiencing bushfires, dust storms and floods as well as areas of South-Eastern Australian experiencing record hot and cold temperatures.
Now that the Indian Ocean Dipole and Southern Annular Mode have returned to neutral, our climate is likely to be influenced by more local effects. The rainfall outlook for March-May is relatively neutral across Australia and the Southern Murray-Darling Basin. With below average soil moisture across much of Australia, temperatures are very likely to be above average across the mainland.
Inflows have tracked significantly below average throughout 2019- 20. This has delivered little improvement in resource availability
CHANCE OF ABOVE-AVERAGE RAINFALL
MARCH 2020 – MAY 2020

and we have seen a net reduction in storage levels since December. In the northern and southern MDB, storages are now at 7% and 33%, compared to 14% and 44 % this time last year.
Within Victoria, a conservative approach to their water resource management has enabled them to deliver increased allocation on the back of small resource improvements. As of the 3rd of February, South Australian irrigators have now received 100% allocation whilst Victorian Murray and Goulburn irrigators have received 56% and 70% respectively. NSW Murray and Murrumbidgee HS licences received 95% and 97% respectively on the 1 July 2020. NSW Murrumbidgee GS licences have received an allocation of 6% for 19/20, however resource deficits in the NSW Murray have seen no allocation to Murray GS licence holders for the second year in a row.
ACCC
Duxton Water is both supportive, and actively participating in the ACCC Inquiry into the Southern Murray Darling Basin water market. This is an extension to the existing role the ACCC have performed in monitoring and reporting on the market development since 2012. 100% of the Company 's assets are deployed to support irrigators within this region, through its partnerships with over 70 irrigator business in the delivery of entitlement leases and countless other irrigators through the delivery of spot and forward allocation products. These products deliver irrigators with both capital and water supply risk management capabilities and the Company is proud of the role that it plays in supporting the development of Australian Irrigated Agriculture.
VALUATION METHODOLOGY
The Company uses independent Fair Market Unit Values for entitlements and allocations provided by Aither Pty Ltd ("Aither") to undertake the NAV assessment. Aither's definition of fair market value is consistent with the principles of the Australian Accounting Standards Board (AASB) 13 Fair Value Measurement. It is a non IFRS measure that is not reviewed or audited by the Company's auditor. Further information can be found on www.duxtonwater.com.au
DISCLAIMER: This factsheet is prepared by Duxton Capital (Australia) Pty Ltd [ACN: 164 225 647; AFSL no. 450218] ("Duxton Capital (Australia)"). Duxton Capital (Australia) is the Investment Manager of Duxton Water Limited [ACN 611 976 517] ("Duxton Water"). This factsheet has been prepared for the purposes of providing general information only and does not constitute an offer, invitation, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the purchase or sale of any securities in Duxton Water. Information from this factsheet must not be issued in any jurisdiction where prohibited by law and must not be used in any way that would be contrary to local law or regulation. The terms of Duxton Water are set out in the prospectus of Duxton Water ("Prospectus"), and should there be any conflict between the terms set out in this factsheet and the Prospectus, the terms in the Prospectus shall prevail. The forecasts provided are based upon our opinion of the market as at this date and are subject to change, dependent on future changes in the market. Any prediction, projection or forecast on the economy, stock market, bond market or the economic trends of the markets is not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance. Investments are subject to risks, including possible loss of principal amount invested. The value of shares/ units and their derived income may fall as well as rise. Past performance or any prediction or forecast is not necessarily indicative of future performance. No assurance is given that the investment objective or the targets will be met. This document does not constitute investment, tax, legal or any other form of advice or recommendation and was prepared without regard to the specific objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular person who may receive it. Investors should study all relevant information and consider whether the investment is appropriate for them. If you require investment or financial advice please contact a regulated financial adviser. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained herein, nor is it intended to be a complete statement or summary of the securities, markets or developments referred to in this presentation. The Duxton Group or its affiliates may hold positions in the securities referred. Where stocks are mentioned, it should not be construed that these are recommendations to buy or sell those stocks. You are not authorized to redistribute this document nor qualified to make any offer, representation or contract on behalf of Duxton Capital (Australia) or its affiliates. Although the information was compiled from sources believed to be reliable, no liability for any error or omission is accepted by Duxton Capital (Australia) or its affiliates or any of their directors or employees. The information and opinions contained may also change. Copyright protection exists in this presentation. To the extent permitted by applicable law, none of the Duxton Group, their affiliates, or any officer or employee of the Duxton Group accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this factsheet or its contents, including for negligence.