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RIVCO AUSTRALIA LTD — Net Asset Value 2020
Dec 15, 2020
65706_rns_2020-12-15_d20ba441-7d03-43fb-9cfc-e6ed9cb58bd9.pdf
Net Asset Value
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ASX Code: D20
Shares on Issue (November) : 119,597,578
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The primary investment objective of Duxton Water (“the Company”) is to build a portfolio of permanent water entitlements and utilise this portfolio to provide flexible water supply solutions to our Australian farming partners. The Company generates a return by offering Irrigators a range of supply solutions including long-term entitlement leases, forward allocation contracts and spot allocation supply.
NET ASSET VALUE PER SHARE
Duxton Water’s NAV at 30 November 2020 was $1.61 per share.
The after-tax NAV figure takes into account the provision for deferred tax on set-up costs and estimates of net tax provisions that may arise should the entire portfolio be disposed of on the above date. The Company does not expect to trigger these tax provisions through the turnover of these assets and expects to maintain its low entitlement turnover ratio. The NAV excluding tax provisions for unrealised capital gain is $1.79. The Company’s NAV is primarily the fair value of its water asset portfolio at the stated date. The Company uses an independent Fair Market Unit Value for entitlement and allocations provided by Aither Pty Ltd (‘Aither”) to undertake the NAV assessment.
NET ASSET VALUE PER SHARE – SINCE INCEPTION
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1.800
1.750
1.700 March
1.650 Dividend 2.6 cents
1.600 @100% Franked
1.4001.5001.4501.3501.550 Dividend 2.4 cents @ 60% FrankedApril Dividend 2.5 cents @ 75% Franked August 10.1 millionApril Dividend 2.7 cents@100% Franked September Dividend 2.8 cents@100% FrankedMarch Dividend 2.9 cents @100% Franke October d
1.300 November Placement
1.250 Dividend 2.3 cents October
1.200 @ 75% Franked Insto Offer 7.5 million May
1.150 May & June 2.45 million shares
1.100 March 16.4 million November SPP
1.050 1.7 million Options Exercised10.8 million
Options Exercised Retail Offer
1.000
Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19 Jan-20 May-20 Sep-20 Nov-20
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PERFORMANCE*
Entitlement Portfolio Value by Region
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14%
14%
3%
<1%
68%
Murray Goulburn
Murrumbidgee Lachlan
Mallee
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Water Portfolio Diversification
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36%
64%
Unleased Leased
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1 Month 3 Months 6 Months 12 Months Inception
2.01% 2.74% 3.38% -3.82% 74.08%
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*These figures are based on NAV movements and include franked dividends for the period.
INVESTMENT UPDATE
At 30 November 2020, Duxton Water is invested in approximately $320 million of water assets, with the remainder of the portfolio held in cash and net current assets. Having taken the opportunity in previous months to rebalance a portion of the portfolio, the Company continues to redeploy capital as opportunities present themselves. The Company has approximately 338ML ($1.61 million) of water entitlements in its acquisition pipeline at 30 November 2020.
The 20/21 water year has seen lower levels of trading activity, as Irrigators wait for forecast wetter conditions to eventuate. That being said, warmer November conditions have increased demand for the available resource due to the arrival of summer (peak irrigation period) and lower than expected rainfall occurring.
After a number of years of below average rainfall and inflows, continued draw down on water storages within the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) put significant pressure on the available water supply.
Water Security Breakdown
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1%
20 %
79%
HS GS Bore
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DUXTON WATER LTD DUXTON HOUSE. 7 POMONA ROAD STIRLING SA AUSTRALIA 5152 [+61]8 8130 9500
ASX Code: D20 Shares on Issue (November) : 119,597,578
ENTITLEMENT MARKET
Prior to entering the 20/21 water year, on 1 July 2020, many Irrigators took advantage of water supply products such as leases and forward allocation contracts to assist with managing upcoming annual water requirements. As Australia enters its summer period, many Irrigators have or are in the process of finalising and planting their summer cropping programs. With increased water resource availability, annual summer crop plantings are expected to be significantly higher than in the 19/20 water year.
Duxton Water is engaged in building a targeted portfolio of water entitlements predominantly across the southern MDB. The Company has invested in both surface and ground water assets. At 30 November 2020, the Company holds approximately 81,634ML of water entitlements across 19 different asset types and classes. Recently the Company has continued to build on opportunities within the high security entitlement market in the New South Wales Murrumbidgee, South Australian Murray and some smaller acquisitions of South Australian Mallee ground water.
Since May 2020, entitlement prices fluctuations have been relatively Wales Murrumbidgee, South Australian Murray and some smaller stable. This follows a 6% retracement in values from their peak in acquisitions of South Australian Mallee ground water. January 2020. For context, since January 2014, water entitlement Entitlement pricing across the southern Murray Darling Basin has values have increased over 250%, reflective of the long-term remained relatively stable through to November 2020 with a structural drivers, rather than the short-term climatic conditions. weighted increase of 0.41%. The Company has however benefited Irrigators have over the last 10 years significantly enhanced their from its exposure to general security entitlements which are marginal return per megalitre through both more efficient use of delivering both increased allocation and capital appreciation with water and conversion to higher value commodities. At the same improved resource availability. time, we have seen significant steps taken to return water to the On 20 November 2020, the Victorian Government released* a environment with Government buy-backs of between 20-22% of report on water market trends and drivers in the southern MDB. entitlements that were once available to the consumptive pool. This report delivered further analysis on the future market pricing The impact of this has seen stronger demand for a reducing impacts on allocation prices of both the increased horticulture available water supply and subsequently, increased asset prices. development as well as past and future government water Irrigators themselves have been the greatest beneficiaries from this recovery. The key findings of this report were that with the impact capital appreciation as they collectively own the majority of water these structural demand and supply shifts, with a repeat of the of entitlements on issue in the market. last 15 years resource availability, we are likely to see weighted November rainfall across the MDB was 60% below the long term average pricing increase significantly above what has been experienced over the last 15 years.
November rainfall across the MDB was 60% below the long term average. MDB Authority active storage levels are higher than 12 months ago, however they are still approximately 22% below long-term average levels. Storage levels are currently being impacted as the summer (peak draw down period) approaches. The Murray-Goulburn system is currently 61% at capacity; 21.3% higher than 12 months ago. Northern basin storage levels are currently 26%, 18% higher than 12 months ago.
The Company uses an independent Fair Market Unit Value for allocations and dry entitlements (without allocation) provided by Aither to undertake the NAV assessment.
Notable Entitlement pricing movements through November:
-
7.14% in NSW Above Choke Murray GS (~7.02% of the portfolio)
-
2.4% in NSW Murrumbidgee GS (~5.31% of portfolio)
Duxton Water continues to support its Irrigator partners as they enter the peak water requirements period for the 20/21 water year. This involves the provision of leases to over 70 family farming and corporate businesses. Through June 2020, many Irrigators took advantage of seasonally low allocation pricing and acquired allocation to carry-over into the new water year. The Company has further supported Irrigator water risk management through the provision of forward allocation contracts for the 20/21 water year. This provides Irrigators with visibility to water supply and assists Duxton Water in hedging its allocation risk on its unleased permanent water assets.
-
1.52% in SA Murray (~8.97% of portfolio)
-
1.4% in NSW Murrumbidgee HS (~8.31% of portfolio)
-
1.27% in VIC Goulburn HR (~13.85% of portfolio)
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Interstate Water Trading Zones
1 – Greater Goulburn 3 – Lower Goulburn 4a – Part Campaspe 4c – Lower Campaspe 5a – Part Loddon
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6 – Vic Murray above Barmah Choke
6b – Lower Broken Creek
7 – Vic Murray from Barmah Choke
to SA Border
10 – NSW Murray above Barmah Choke
11 – NSW Murray below Barmah Choke
12 – South Australia Murray
13 – Murrumbidgee
14 –Lower Darling
15 – Lachlan
16 – Lower Lachlan Groundwater
17 – SA Mallee Groundwater
Murray Darling Basin
River
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The Company actively manages its allocation holding in order to deliver on demand for spot allocation sales, meet its forward allocation sale obligations and deliver on new entitlement lease arrangements. In offering these products, the Company supports market liquidity and risk management options for our Irrigator partners.
* https://waterregister.vic.gov.au/about/news/330-new-analysis-on-trends-anddrivers-of-water-market-prices-for-allocation
DUXTON WATER LTD DUXTON HOUSE. 7 POMONA ROAD STIRLING SA AUSTRALIA 5152 [+61]8 8130 9500
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ASX Code: D20
Shares on Issue (November) : 119,597,578
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ALLOCATION MARKET
As Irrigators enter the summer months and the peak irrigation season, increased demand for the available resource has driven prices higher. Storages have reached peak supply and are now being drawn down in order to meet downstream requirements.
The closure of trading limits from the upper Murray, Goulburn and Murrumbidgee has seen price fragmentation from the lower Murray. Through November, lower Murray water prices traded between $225-$230/ML, up on October prices of $180-$200/ML. Prices in the upper Murray, Goulburn and Murrumbidgee at the end of November range from $110-$160/ML.
LEASES
The leased portion of the water entitlement portfolio is ~64% which represents ~76% of the Company ’s high security entitlement holding.
The current weighted average lease expiry (WALE) remains at 2.3 years. Inclusive of renewal options, this pushes the WALE to 4.6
years. The Company continues to work towards its long-term goal of having 70-80% of the portfolio under lease.
DIVIDENDS
The Company paid a fully franked dividend of 2.9 cents on 30 October 2020, with 222k shares issued under the Dividend Reinvestment Plan at a VWAP of $1.3401/Share.
The Board maintains its commitment to providing shareholders with a bi-annual dividend franked to the maximum extent possible. With the Company’s high percentage of leased entitlements, the Directors reaffirm its target for the next four dividends.
The Company has targeted fully franked payments of:
• 3.0 cents ($0.030) as the final 2020 dividend;
-
3.1 cents ($0.031) as the interim 2021 dividend;
-
3.2 cents ($0.032) as the final 2021 dividend; and
-
3.3 cents ($0.033) as the interim 2022 dividend.
The dividend targets are to be paid in the following reporting periods.
DAILY INFLOWS TO THE MDB
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260,000
240,000
220,000
200,000
180,000
160,000
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
2016-17 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 Long term average
for comparison to a wet water year
I-Jun I-Jul I-Aug I-Sep I-Oct I-Nov I-Dec I-Jan I-Feb I-Mar I-Apr I-May I-Jun
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Murray System Daily Inflows (excl. Snowy Darling, inter-valley trade and environmental inflows) - 5 day rolling average
DUXTON WATER LTD DUXTON HOUSE. 7 POMONA ROAD STIRLING SA AUSTRALIA 5152 [+61]8 8130 9500
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ASX Code: D20
Shares on Issue (November) : 119,597,578
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CHANCE OF ABOVE-AVERAGE RAINFALL
JANUARY 2021 – MARCH 2021
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80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
Chance of exceeding median rainfall (%)
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MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK
The La Nina event in the Pacific Ocean is now well established. La Nina typically means above average rainfalls over the summer months for much of eastern Australia.
It should however be noted that for the southern parts of Australia and particularly the southern MDB, summer is not typically a high rainfall period and requires only small increases of received precipitation to breach the average rainfall thresholds.
The BOM have made commentary in recent outlooks that: " While the outlooks indicate wetter than average conditions, southern parts of Australia are entering into their drier season, so rainfall is not likely to be sufficient to relieve long-term rainfall deficits. "
Rainfall for the MDB for November was 60% below the long-term average and we continue to see draw downs of major storages ahead of summer. Summer daytime temperatures are expected to be warmer than average for parts of south east Australia, resulting in further irrigation demand over summer.
In the northern and southern MDB, storages are now at 27% and 61%, compared to 9% and 40% this time last year.
STORAGE LEVELS IN MAJOR DAMS
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Total Murray Goulburn 40% 61%
Lake Eildon 45% 68%
Menindee Lakes 1% 22%
Lake Victoria 73%75%
Hume 32% 72%
Dartmouth 53% 62%
Total Murrumbidgee 41% 87%
Blowering 45% 88%
Burrinjuck 34% 82%
2020 2019 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
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ACCC
On 30 July 2020, the ACCC released the interim report into the Southern Murray Darling Basin Water Market.
The ACCC has spent almost a year reviewing the markets operation and engaging with key stakeholders. The Commission has had an ongoing role in monitoring the Australian Water Markets, having issued reports on its operation since 2012. It is the Company's view that the interim report was thorough and well-balanced.
We note the ACCC has stated that:
“Water trading has brought substantial benefits to water users across the Basin. Water markets allow Irrigators to increase their water supplies, to earn income by selling their water rights when they are more valuable to someone else, to expand production, or to release capital for investment in their businesses. The benefit of water markets is demonstrated by the fact that, despite tough and volatile climatic conditions, the value of production from irrigated agriculture in the Southern Basin has trended upwards in real terms since 2010-11.”
“Water investors, meanwhile, can help Irrigators free up capital by buying and leasing out water; they can increase water market liquidity; and they can help Irrigators manage water-supply risks, by providing water products such as leases and forward contracts.”
We note the report has identified opportunities to improve governance, regulatory and operational frameworks that support Australian water markets. We believe that a focus in these areas will benefit all stakeholders and Duxton will actively engage in that process.
The Company uses an independent Fair Market Unit Value for entitlement and allocation provided by Aither Pty Ltd (‘Aither”) to undertake the NAV assessment. Aither’s definition of fair market value is consistent with the principles of the Australian Accounting Standards Board (AASB) 13 Fair Value Measurement. It is a non IFRS measure that is not reviewed or audited by the Company’s auditor. Further information can be found at www.duxtonwater.com.au
The interim report can be found at:
https://www.accc.gov.au/focus-areas/inquiries-ongoing/murray-darlingbasin-water-markets-inquiry/interim-report
This announcement has been authorised for release by the Board of Duxton Water Limited.
DISCLAIMER: This factsheet is prepared by Duxton Capital (Australia) Pty Ltd [ACN: 164 225 647; AFSL no. 450218] (“Duxton Capital (Australia)”). Duxton Capital (Australia) is the Investment Manager of Duxton Water Limited [ACN 611 976 517] (“Duxton Water”). This factsheet has been prepared for the purposes of providing general information only and does not constitute an offer, invitation, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the purchase or sale of any securities in Duxton Water. Information from this factsheet must not be issued in any jurisdiction where prohibited by law and must not be used in any way that would be contrary to local law or regulation. The terms of Duxton Water are set out in the prospectus of Duxton Water (“Prospectus”), and should there be any conflict between the terms set out in this factsheet and the Prospectus, the terms in the Prospectus shall prevail. The forecasts provided are based upon our opinion of the market as at this date and are subject to change, dependent on future changes in the market. Any prediction, projection or forecast on the economy, stock market, bond market or the economic trends of the markets is not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance. Investments are subject to risks, including possible loss of principal amount invested. The value of shares/ units and their derived income may fall as well as rise. Past performance or any prediction or forecast is not necessarily indicative of future performance. No assurance is given that the investment objective or the targets will be met. This document does not constitute investment, tax, legal or any other form of advice or recommendation and was prepared without regard to the specific objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular person who may receive it. Investors should study all relevant information and consider whether the investment is appropriate for them. If you require investment or financial advice please contact a regulated financial adviser. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained herein, nor is it intended to be a complete statement or summary of the securities, markets or developments referred to in this presentation. The Duxton Group or its affiliates may hold positions in the securities referred. Where stocks are mentioned, it should not be construed that these are recommendations to buy or sell those stocks. You are not authorized to redistribute this document nor qualified to make any offer, representation or contract on behalf of Duxton Capital (Australia) or its affiliates. Although the information was compiled from sources believed to be reliable, no liability for any error or omission is accepted by Duxton Capital (Australia) or its affiliates or any of their directors or employees. The information and opinions contained may also change. Copyright protection exists in this presentation. To the extent permitted by applicable law, none of the Duxton Group, their affiliates, or any officer or employee of the Duxton Group accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this factsheet or its contents, including for negligence.
DUXTON WATER LTD DUXTON HOUSE. 7 POMONA ROAD STIRLING SA AUSTRALIA 5152 [+61]8 8130 9500