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RIVCO AUSTRALIA LTD — Net Asset Value 2017
May 8, 2017
65706_rns_2017-05-08_13c169ae-ec53-4d5c-9021-7627cd30e9c5.pdf
Net Asset Value
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Duxton Water Limited Monthly Update
30 April 2017
Net Asset Value per Share
$1.09
The primary investment objective of Duxton Water is to generate annual income through capitalising on the increasing demand for scarce water resources. Duxton Water derives its income from a diversified portfolio of Australian Water Allocations and Water Entitlements.
Duxton Water
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ASX Code (Shares) D2O
ASX Code (Options) D2OO
Shares on Issue 63,965,406
Options Outstanding 63,965,406
Options Exercise Price $1.10
Options Expiry 31 May 2018
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Net Asset Value per Share
Duxton Water's NAV as at 30 April 2017 was $1.09 per share.
These figures are not adjusted for any dilution due to the outstanding options which are exercisable at $1.10. The after tax figure takes into account the provision for deferred tax on set-up costs and estimates of net tax provisions that may arise should the entire portfolio be disposed of on the above date.
Net Asset Value per Share - Since Inception
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1.11
1.09
1.07
1.05
1.03
1.01
0.99
0.97
0.95
16th 30th 31st October 30th 31st 31st January 28th February 31st March 30th April
September September 2016 November December 2017 2017 2017 2017
2016 2016 2016 2016
AUD
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Entitlement Portfolio Value by Region
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1% [1%] 1% 1% 0% Murray
6% Goulburn
9% Murrumbidgee
Lachlan
10%
Mallee
Unsettled
71% Transactions
Loddon
Macquarie
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| Performance | Gain/Loss |
|---|---|
| 1 Month | 1.36% |
| 3 Months | 4.26% |
| 6 Months | 4.15% |
| 12 Months | N/A |
| Inception | 2.31% |
Water Portfolio Diversification
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1%
Leased
50% Unleased
49%
Unsettled
Transactions
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Market Update
Market Summary
Major storages within the Murray Darling Basin (MDB) decreased 1% over the past month. Total MDB storage remains 33% higher than April 2016. Large amounts of rainfall were recorded across the southern MDB in late April, with totals ranging from 25mm to 100mm. The northern MDB remained relatively dry with only light and sporadic rainfall occurring.
Government Water Authorities released their updated outlook for opening allocations in the 2017/18 water year (commencing 1st July 2017). Indicative water allocations for Victoria Murray High Reliability, New South Wales Murray High Security and South Australia on the 1st of July are 52%, 97% and 100%, respectively. For NSW Murray General Security, an opening allocation of 4% is forecast (with 45% carryover). By 1st November 2017 allocations are forecast to be between 25% (very dry) and 100% (wet) with average inflows leading to a forecast of 53% allocation.
Water Security Breakdown
Indicative water allocations for Victoria Murray High Reliability, New South Wales Murray High Security and South Australia on the 1st of July are 52%, 97% and 100% respectively.
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1%
20%
HS
GS
BORE
79%
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Southern Basin
Total inflows into the Murray system were 209GL, compared to the 10 year average of 250GL. The Hume and Dartmouth reservoirs closed the month at 59.0% and 78.0% of capacity, respectively. To put this in context, the Hume reservoir was at 98.4% capacity in late November. During the month, the Hume Reservoir received total rainfall of 79.2mm, compared to the long-term average of 52.5mm.
Water entitlement prices increased in April. Substantial price increases were seen in NSW Murray High Security and NSW Murray General Security water zones, increasing 4.1% and 2.1%, respectively. There was a marginal decline in Victoria Murray Zone 7, decreasing 1.4%.
Temporary water prices in most major water zones have decreased over the past month. Forecasted dry weather for the remainder of the water year should hold prices at current levels. Although temporary prices continued to fall, the overall impact on the portfolio was mitigated through our exposure to fixed long-term leases. Furthermore, most of the unleased allocations were sold in prior months, meaning any temporary price falls will have minimal impact on the portfolio value.
Northern Basin
Lachlan Valley water entitlement prices increased 13.2% in April and have increased 25.0% since the start of the year. As noted in a number of our reports, we expected this increase to continue due to strong demand from large cotton growers.
Duxton Capital (Australia) Pty Ltd Duxton House, 7 Pomona Road, Stirling, SA, Australia 5152 T (08) 8130 9500 F (08) 8130 9599
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Duxton Water Limited Monthly Update
30 April 2017
Investment Update
Permanent Water Acquisitions and Divestments
As at 30 April 2017, Duxton Water is invested in approximately $68 million of water entitlements, equating to 99% of the portfolio, with the remainder of the portfolio held in cash and net current assets. Duxton Water has entered into contracts, agreed terms for contracts or has pending offers for contracts on an additional $0.5 million worth of water entitlements. These additional contracts will result in 100% of the portfolio being invested, in-line with our deployment strategy. See the graph to the right showing the monthly deployment of IPO proceeds.
Temporary Water Sales
In April, 862ML of allocations were sold. YTD allocation sales amount to 12,220ML.
Lease Yield
No new leases were entered into in April. The weighted average yield for long-term leases remains at 6.0%.
Total Yield
Duxton Water’s yield is comprised of two streams of income: leased and unleased income. The leased income is currently at 6.0% (annualised) and the unleased income is 3.2% (running). The weighted average yield of the two streams is 4.6%. It should be noted that the 2016/17 water year will end on 30 June 2017. On 1st July 2017, the new water year commences, meaning that the allocation balances reset ( as per market summary section above ). This will positively impact the unleased component of Duxton Water’s income as we will have additional allocations to sell throughout the remainder of the Company’s financial year (January-December). On top of the reset allocation balances, the Company will carry-over some NSW General Security into the new water year. Part of the reason for this is due to the time delay in settlement for entitlement purchases which has rolled over into May when the majority of water brokers are closed. These carried-over allocations will be sold in the new water year at potentially higher water prices compared to today. As such, we expect the unleased income stream to steadily climb.
Dividends
The Company currently plans to pay a dividend or capital return of approximately 3% to Shareholders in August 2017 with the second dividend or capital return of a similar amount expected to occur in February 2018. The Company will seek to make these distributions in the most tax efficient way for Shareholders. The amount of the distribution will be at the discretion of the Board.
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Post-IPO Deployment
35,000,000
30,000,000
25,000,000
20,000,000
15,000,000
10,000,000
5,000,000
Cash -
Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Water Purchases
Duxton Water Portfolio SMDB Exposure
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Valuation Methodology
Total assets of the Company are valued at fair market value based upon independent valuation, or the weighted average price of the last three applicable trades on or prior to the relevant Valuation Day, received from the respective state register, excluding outliers. Outliers are defined as a trade with greater than 10.0% variance from the last weighted average price and transactions that are less than 10ML (unless there are no applicable transactions greater than 10ML) less the total liabilities of the Company.
Market Outlook
The latest Bureau of Meteorology outlooks are suggestive of further hot and dry conditions over the next three months for the Murray Darling Basin. Models are forecasting a 65%-80% chance of below average rainfall across the Southern Connected Basin ( see chart below ).
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The chance of above median rainfall for May- July Storage levels
Total Murray Goulburn 31% 68%
Hume 18% 59%
Lake Eildon 29% 65%
Dartmouth 42% 78%
Total Murrumbidgee 40% 64%
Burrinjuck 32% 64%
Blowering 46% 64%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
Source: Bureau of Meteorology 2016 2017
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Disclaimer
This factsheet is prepared by Duxton Capital (Australia) Pty Ltd [ACN: 164 225 647; AFSL no. 450218] ("Duxton Capital (Australia)"). Duxton Capital (Australia) is the Investment Manager of Duxton Water Limited [ACN 611 976 517] (“Duxton Water”).
This factsheet has been prepared for the purposes of providing general information only and does not constitute an offer, invitation, soliciation or recommendation with respect to the purchase or sale of any securities in Duxton Water. Information from this factsheet must not be issued in any jurisdiction where prohibited by law and must not be used in any way that would be contrary to local law or regulation. The terms of Duxton Water are set out in the prospectus of Duxton Water (“Prospectus”), and should there be any conflict between the terms set out in this factsheet and the Prospectus, the terms in the Prospectus shall prevail.
The forecasts provided are based upon our opinion of the market as at this date and are subject to change, dependent on future changes in the market. Any prediction, projection or forecast on the economy, stock market, bond market or the economic trends of the markets is not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance. Investments are subject to risks, including possible loss of principal amount invested. The value of shares/ units and their derived income may fall as well as rise. Past performance or any prediction or forecast is not necessarily indicative of future performance. No assurance is given that the investment objective or the targets will be met.
This document does not constitute investment, tax, legal or any other form of advice or recommendation and was prepared without regard to the specific objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular person who may receive it. Investors should study all relevant information and consider whether the investment is appropriate for them. If you require investment or financial advice please contact a regulated financial adviser. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained herein, nor is it intended to be a complete statement or summary of the securities, markets or developments referred to in this presentation. The Duxton Group or its affiliates may hold positions in the securities referred. Where stocks are mentioned, it should not be construed that these are recommendations to buy or sell those stocks.
You are not authorized to redistribute this document nor qualified to make any offer, representation or contract on behalf of Duxton Capital (Australia) or its affiliates. Although the information was compiled from sources believed to be reliable, no liability for any error or omission is accepted by Duxton Capital (Australia) or its affiliates or any of their directors or employees. The information and opinions contained may also change. Copyright protection exists in this presentation. To the extent permitted by applicable law, none of the Duxton Group, their affiliates, or any officer or employee of the Duxto Group accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this factsheet or its contents, including for negligence.
Duxton Capital (Australia) Pty Ltd Duxton House, 7 Pomona Road, Stirling, SA, Australia 5152 T (08) 8130 9500 F (08) 8130 9599