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Rheinmetall AG — Call Transcript 2016
Mar 17, 2016
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TECHNOLOGIES FOR SECURITY AND MOBILITY
Conference Call Fiscal Year 2015
Düsseldorf | 17 March 2016
© RHEINMETALL AG 2016
New headquarter: "Rheinmetall Wings" Düsseldorf
Review 2015 Strong sales and earnings growth
- Rheinmetall Group: targets achieved, Sales for the first time above EUR 5 billion
- Automotive: Record sales and earnings
- Defence: Turnaround accomplished, order flow underpins strong market position
- Restructuring phase 2013 2015 successfully completed
- Capital increase strengthening the balance sheet
- Dividend bouncing up to EUR 1,10 (proposal)
Fiscal year 2015 in detail Strong incremental sales, moderate increase of headcount
Fiscal year 2015 in detail Earnings boosted by turnaround in Defence
Fiscal year 2015 in detail Increased dividend proposal of EUR 1.10
* Proposal to the Annual General Meeting
Fiscal year 2015 in detail Net financial debt lowered by capital increase and improved earnings
Fiscal year 2015 in detail Positive free cash flow by improved earnings and working capital
2014 in EUR million 2015 in EUR million
| Net | Depr./ | Capex | Working | Free cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| income | ∆Pensions | (Cash-out) | capital/ | flow from |
| others | operations |
Review 2015 A strong year for Automotive
- Dynamic sales growth by 6%, clearly above market growth of 1%
- EBIT margin of 8.3% representing an all-time high
- Main contribution to sales growth by Mechatronics division (+10%)
- China: Solid sales growth, despite a less dynamic development of LV-production
Top- and bottom line growth Strong sales and earnings contribution from Mechatronics
Sales Automotive in EUR million Operational earnings Automotive in EUR million
Organic growth Main strategic drivers
AUTOMOTIVE
ORGANIC GROWTH
Market growth Light Vehicles (LV) Globally rising production
and
Expanding Non-LV business of Rheinmetall Automotive
More content
Increasing number of Rheinmetall products per car due to tightening environmental standards
and
Trend of Electrification esp. Hybridization
Higher value of products
Innovative solutions with higher price level, driven by rising demand for components which offer improved energy-efficiency and/or lower fuel consumption
Growth driver "Market growth" Ongoing increase of global demand for light vehicles
Forecast global light vehicle (LV) production in million units
Source: IHS Automotive (February 2016)
Growth driver "Market growth" China: Continuing growth, but with lower rates
− Expected recovery of the Chinese car market: Growth expectation 5.6% in 2016 after 4.3% in 2015
- − Growth rate expected to normalize but remains above global average growth
- − Double-digit sales increase of 100%-subsidiaries (WFOE) expected
JV: 100% figures shown of Joint Ventures, Rheinmetall Automotive owns 50% of JV; consolidated at-equity WFOE: Wholly Foreign-Owned Enterprise, 100% subsidiaries, fully consolidated Source: IHS Automotive (February 2016)
Growth driver "Market growth" India: Well prepared to take advantage of increasing demand for mobility
− Expected market growth 2016 of 9% with a meaningful share of Diesel engines (~35%)
− Automotive subsidiaries leaving start-up phase and moving into growth phase
Growth driver "Non-LV business" Truck engine production heading towards a growth phase
Forecast truck engine production in million units
Rheinmetall Automotive sales of non-LV and truck business in EUR million
16
Growth driver "More content per car/hybridization" Trend to hybrid vehicles expected to accelerate
Forecast production of hybrid vehicles* in million units
- − Stricter emission regulations increase attractiveness of alternative energy concepts
- − Hybrid powertrains will raise significantly and become a major market
- − Estimated market share of hybrid vehicles:
- 2015: 2%
- 2025: 19%
*Mild hybrid, full hybrid, plug-in hybrid
© RHEINMETALL AG 2016 | FY 2015 REPORT | 17 March 2016
17
Mechanical coolant pumps
Oil pumps
Growth driver "More content per car"
Trend of hybridization opens potential for more Rheinmetall products
The traditional product portfolio for combustion engines …
Growth driver "More content per car" Trend of hybridization opens potential for more Rheinmetall products
… will be enlarged by products for hybrid engines.
Growth driver "Higher value of products" Electrification and downsizing require more sophisticated products
| Product Portfolio Divisions |
Gasoline | Diesel | Hybrid | E-drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mechatronics | | | | |
Technological developments in line with customer requirements (e.g., electric and/or variable pumps, "E-Booster")
Hardparts
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Extension of the existing product portfolio for vehicle engines (e.g. steel pistons) and for products independent on engines (e.g. structural casting parts) for light vehicles; E-Drive-specific products (e.g. battery case)
- Further extension of the non-LV-business (e.g. large-bore pistons)
- → Flexible R&D and production capacities, adjusted to the need of the customers: Gasoline-, Diesel,- hybrid-engines, electro-mobility
- → Reducing dependency on specific LV-engine types
Review on 2015 Turnaround of Rheinmetall Defence successful
- Encouraging order flow leads to a stable book-to-bill ratio above one
- Sales pushed by 16% to €2.6 billion
- Strong turnaround due to growing organic sales, successfully finalized restructuring program and improving product mix; no further impact on earnings by one-offs
- Shaping profile in the global military vehicle business by the new division Vehicle Systems
Rheinmetall Defence
The new Vehicle Systems Division – a competitive international supplier
- Leading European supplier of military vehicle systems with expected sales of €1.4 billion (in 2016) and a strong order backlog of €4.0 billion (end of 2015)
- Sole provider of the complete product portfolio of military vehicles (tracked, wheeled, tactical, logistical) and turrets in the Western world
- New vehicles are ready for market launch: amphibious wheeled vehicle, infantry fighting vehicle
- Strong market position setting a solid basis in the further consolidation process of the industry
Turnaround of the operational performance Return to profitability by operational improvements and no further one-offs
Sales Defence in EUR million Operational earnings Defence in EUR million
Organic growth Main strategic drivers
DEFENCE ORGANIC GROWTH
High order potential in German home market
Global market growth
Increase of Defense budgets due to changing security situation
High order backlog
Secures solid future growth of Rheinmetall Defence in mid-term perspective
New markets Approaching new markets with local partners and with
Innovative products and developments (e.g. laser technology)
Growth driver "High order potential Germany" A number of projects targeted by Rheinmetall
Fox Upgrade order (2016) Potential ~€200 mill. Additional 6x6-vehicles Mid term potential €1 billion
Leopard 2 Upgrade order for 104 tanks Potential up to €200 mill.
Marder Lifetime extension Potential ~€75 million
Boxer Order for 131 vehicles, Volume €130 million
Gladius soldier system Order expected for 2016/17 Potential ~€250 million Further Soldier systems Mid term potential ~€500 mill.
Puma Additional equipment Potential €600 million Demand for additional IFVs Long term potential €900 mill.
2019 2020
2016 2017 BEYOND
Ammunition Restocking expected Short and mid term potential ~€500 mill.
Combat Training Center Additional equipment Potential > €50 million Service contract Potential €50-100 mill.
Military trucks Step-by-step replacement of 2,500 vehicles Potential until 2025 > €1 billion Additional demand for further vehicles
Growth driver: Global markets The Defence macro picture is changing
USA
- Trend of budget reduction stopped
- Defence spending expected of USD >600 billion p.a. EUROPE
NATO
Common target confirmed: Moving defence budgets to 2% of GDP until 2025
GERMANY
- Intention to return to fully equipped forces
- Necessity to spend EUR 130 billion for armament up to 2030
Return to increase defence spending especially in Eastern Europe (+4% annually until 2020) and Baltic states (+2%)
RUSSIA
Huge armed forces modernization program launched in spite of lower growth rates of defence budgets
CHINA
Mid-term budget growth of 7- 8 % p.a. expected
AUSTRALIA
EUR 127 billion until 2026 to modernize armed forces
Growth driver "High order backlog"
Increased order backlog leads to improved visibility of mid-term sales
Growth driver "New markets" Expanding local footprint by individual industrial partnerships
— Cooperation with the Polish defence industry for a major Leopard modernization program, Order volume about EUR 220 million
TURKEY
― Rheinmetall Turk as a local entity is a designated partner of joint ventures with Turkish defence companies (Ammunition and vehicle systems)
AUSTRALIA: LAND 400 PROGRAM
- ̶ Tender submitted in 2015, offering Boxer with Lance turret
- ̶ Teamed up with Northrop Grumman
- ̶ Down-selection in 2016, final decision not before 2018
- ̶ Total volume: appr. EUR 2.5 billion
- ̶ Strong international competition
Growth driver "New products" New technologies and products ready for market launch
— New cannon with a larger caliber, performance increase: 50%
HIGH ENERGY LASER
-
- ― Laser technology developed, ready for operations in 3-5 years
currently common project of Germany and France
*Main Ground Combat System
- ― Domestic R&D orders of EUR ~40 million received
- ― Qualification phase ongoing: Successfully tested by German Navy
Short-term perspective Outlook fiscal year 2016
| Sales | in € billion |
Operational margin | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 2016 | 2015 | 2016 | ||
| Group | 5.2 | ~ 5.5 | 5.5% | ~ 6% | |
| Defence | 2.6 | ~ 2.8 | 3.5% | 4.5-5% | |
| Automotive | 2.6 | ~ 2.7 | 8.3% | ~ 8% |
Assumptions
- ― Key large-scale projects in Defence to be realized as scheduled, no significant one-offs
- ― Global automotive industry growing as forecast
Mid-term perspective Looking ahead: Markets and Rheinmetall
Markets with good mid-term perspectives: Global growth in Defence and Automotive
| MARKET | SALES | OPERATIONAL | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAGR 2015-2018e | ||||
| AUTOMOTIVE | 2.8% | ~ 4-5% | ~ 8% | |
| DEFENCE | 1.1% | ~ 8% | ~ 6-7% |
Changing markets
- Sustainable growth of global car production
- Gradually rising importance of hybridization
-
R&D efforts in order to create higher independency from engine concepts
-
Increasing number of global tensions and conflicts lead to enhanced efforts to modernize ground forces
- Broad existing product portfolio covers increasing demand of land forces
Key figures: Group
| in EUR million |
2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balance sheet | Total assets | 4,832 | 4,899 | 4,866 | 5,271 | 5,730 |
| Shareholder's equity | 1,546 | 1,465 | 1,339 | 1,197 | 1,562 | |
| Equity ratio (in %) | 32.0 | 29.9 | 27.5 | 22.7 | 27.3 | |
| Pension liabilities |
729 | 919 | 891 | 1,121 | 1,128 | |
| Net financial debt | 130 | 98 | 147 | 330 | 81 | |
| Net gearing (in %) | 8.4 | 6.7 | 11.0 | 27.6 | 5.2 | |
| Income statement | Sales | 4,454 | 4,704 | 4,417 | 4,688 | 5,183 |
| Operating result | 342 | 268 | 211 | 160 | 287 | |
| Operating margin (in %) | 7.7 | 5.7 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 5.5 | |
| EBITDA | 538 | 490 | 315 | 299 | 490 | |
| EBIT | 354 | 296 | 121 | 102 | 287 | |
| EBIT margin (in %) | 7.9 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 5.5 | |
| EBT | 295 | 216 | 45 | 22 | 221 | |
| Net income after minorities | 213 | 173 | 29 | 18 | 151 | |
| Earnings per share (in EUR) | 5.55 | 4.55 | 0.75 | 0.47 | 3.88 | |
| Dividend per share (in EUR); 2015: proposal | 1.80 | 1.80 | 0.40 | 0.30 | 1.10 | |
| ROCE (in %) | 14.9 | 11.5 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 10.1 | |
| Cash flow statement | Free cash flow from operations | 93 | 125 | 20 | -182 | 29 |
| Headcount | Employees (Dec 31) according to capacity | 21,516 | 21,767 | 20,264 | 20,166 | 20,676 |
2013 figures adjusted according to IFRS 5 (Discontinued Operations) with regard to the formation of the ATAG JV and according to IFRS 11 (Joint Arrangements)
Key figures: Segments 2011 – 2015
| AUTOMOTIVE | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
| 2,621 | 2,466 | 2,270 | 2,378 | 2,357 |
| 445 | 416 | 392 | 418 | 409 |
| 2,592 | 2,448 | 2,262 | 2,369 | 2,313 |
| 216 | 184 | 158 | 139 | 151 |
| 8.3 | 7.5 | 7.0 | 5.9 | 6.5 |
| 332 | 295 | 225 | 243 | 254 |
| 216 | 184 | 124 | 139 | 151 |
| 8.3 | 7.5 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 6.5 |
| 167 | 158 | 142 | 148 | 104 |
| 10,934 | 10,830 | 10,927 | 12,003 | 11,548 |
| 1,540 | 1,322 | 1,171 | 1,091 | 1,025 |
| 118 | 96 | 66 | 69 | 69 |
| 8.1 | 7.3 | 5.6 | 6.3 | 6.7 |
| 952 | 934 | 889 | 1,087 | 1,092 |
| 73 | 72 | 27 | 57 | 65 |
| 7.7 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 5.2 | 6.0 |
| 285 | 269 | 268 | 265 | 258 |
| 27 | 26 | 27 | 25 | 24 |
| 9.5 | 9.7 | 10.1 | 9.4 | 9.3 |
| in EUR million | ||
|---|---|---|
| Order intake | ||
| Order backlog (Dec. 31) | ||
| Sales | ||
| Operating result | ||
| Operating margin (in %) | ||
| EBITDA | ||
| EBIT | ||
| EBIT margin (in %) | ||
| Capex | ||
| Employees (Dec 31) according to capacity | ||
| Mechatronics | Sales | Combat |
| EBIT | Systems | |
| EBIT margin | ||
| Hardparts | Sales | Electronic |
| EBIT | Solutions | |
| EBIT margin | ||
| Aftermarket | Sales | Wheeled |
| EBIT | Vehicles | |
| EBIT margin |
| DEFENCE | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | |
| 1,831 | 2,933 | 3,339 | 2,812 | 2,693 | |
| 4,541 | 4,987 | 6,050 | 6,516 | 6,422 | |
| 2,141 | 2,335 | 2,155 | 2,240 | 2,591 | |
| 212 | 146 | 60 | -9 | 90 | |
| 9.9 | 6.3 | 2.8 | -0.4 | 3.5 | |
| 303 | 262 | 96 | 17 | 175 | |
| 223 | 173 | 4 | -67 | 90 | |
| 10.4 | 7.4 | 0.2 | -3.0 | 3.5 | |
| 102 | 90 | 62 | 76 | 96 | |
| 9,833 | 9,623 | 9,193 | 9,184 | 9,581 | |
| 1,198 | 1,136 | 1,027 | 977 | 1,382 | |
| 146 | 102 | 31 | -4 | 88 | |
| 12.2 | 9.0 | 3.0 | -0.4 | 6.4 | |
| 799 | 748 | 710 | 705 | 759 | |
| 86 | 97 | 11 | -53 | 26 | |
| 10.8 | 13.0 | 1.5 | -7.5 | 3.4 | |
| 255 | 567 | 539 | 667 | 600 | |
| -12 | -25 | -35 | -9 | -11 | |
| -4.7 | -4.4 | -6.5 | -1.4 | -1.8 |
2013 figures adjusted according to IFRS 5 (Discontinued Operations) with regard to the formation of the ATAG JV and according to IFRS 11 (Joint Arrangements)
Cash credit facilities and net financial debt
* Net debt in % of equity
Fiscal year 2015: survey
| in EUR million |
2014 | 2015 | ∆ 2015/2014 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 4,688 | 5,183 | + 495 | + 11% |
| Operational earnings | 160 | 287 | + 127 |
+ 79% |
| Special items: one-offs, restructuring costs | - 58 |
0 | + 58 | |
| EBIT (reported) | 102 | 287 | + 185 |
+ 181% |
| EBT | 22 | 221 | + 199 |
+ 905% |
| Group net income* |
21 | 21 | + 0 |
± 0% |
| Earnings per share* in EUR | 0.47 | 3.88 | + 3.41 |
+ 726% |
| in EUR Dividend |
0.30 | 1.10** | + 0,80 |
+ 267% |
| in% Payout ratio |
64 | 28 | - 36 pp |
- 56% |
| Employees (Dec 31) | 20,166 | 20,676 | + 510 | + 3% |
* Continuing and discontinued operations
** Dividend proposal to the Annual General Meeting
Quarterly development
Sales in EUR million Operational earnings in EUR million
Research & development, capex, depreciation & amortization
R&D in EUR million Capex in EUR million D&A in EUR million
* Subsidies for tooling costs
Cash flow statement
| Continuing operations in EUR million |
Q4 2014 | Q1 2015 | Q2 2015 | Q3 2015 | Q4 2015 | ∆ Q4 2015/ Q4 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Group net income | 41 | 5 | 29 | 30 | 96 | +55 |
| Amortization / depreciation | 59 | 49 | 50 | 49 | 55 | -4 |
| Change in pension accruals | - 2 |
0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +4 |
| Cash flow | 98 | 54 | 80 | 79 | 153 | +55 |
| Changes in working capital and other items |
337 | -202 | -100 | 8 | 267 | -70 |
| Net cash used in operating activities |
435 | -148 | -20 | 87 | 420 | -15 |
| Cash outflow for additions to tangible and intangible assets |
- 120 |
-56 | -55 | -78 | -121 | -1 |
| Free cash flow from operations | 315 | -204 | -75 | 9 | 299 | -16 |
| RHEINMETALL AUTOMOTIVE | EUR 2.6 billion | |
|---|---|---|
| Hardparts | Mechatronics | Aftermarket |
| Pistons | Emission Systems | International |
| Large-bore pistons | Solenoid Valves | National |
| Bearings | Commercial Diesel Systems | |
| Actuators | ||
| Pumps |
Sales figure FY 2015
Fiscal year 2015: survey
| Continuing operations in EUR million |
2014 | 2015 | ∆ | 2015/2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 2,448 | 2,592 | + 144 | + 6% |
| Operational earnings | 184 | 216 | + 32 | + 17% |
| Special items: one-offs, restructuring costs | 0 | 0 | ± 0 |
± 0% |
| EBIT (reported) | 184 | 216 | + 32 | + 17% |
| Employees (Dec 31) | 10,830 | 10,934 | + 104 |
+ 1% |
Key figures by division
Figures before intra-segmental consolidation
Quarterly development
Sales Automotive in EUR million Operational earnings Automotive in EUR million
Figures adjusted according to IFRS 5 (Discontinued Operations) with regard to the formation of the ATAG JV and according to IFRS 11 (Joint Arrangements)
Cash flow statement
| Continuing operations in EUR million |
2014 | 2015 | ∆ 2015/2014 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Group net income | 131 | 161 | +30 |
| Amortization / depreciation | 121 | 116 | -5 |
| Change in pension accruals | -1 | -2 | -1 |
| Cash flow | 251 | 275 | + 24 |
| Changes in working capital and other items | - 21 |
+7 | +28 |
| Net cash used in operating activities | 230 | 282 | +52 |
| Cash outflow for additions to tangible and intangible assets |
- 196 |
-186 | +10 |
| Free cash flow from operations | 34 | 96 | + 62 |
Research & development, capex, depreciation & amortization
R&D in EUR million Capex in EUR million D&A in EUR million
* Subsidies for tooling costs
Sales by customers and by regions
Sales by customer in %
Sales by region in EUR million Sales growth in % 493 520 241 307 523 528 1,191 1,238 2014 2,448 2,592 2015 Europe (excl. Germany) Rest of the World Germany Asia (w/o China JVs) +1% +4% +27% +6% Market Growth** in % +4% +2% -1% +2%
* MIR: Marine, Industrial , Recreational
** Source: IHS Automotive (February 2016)
Automotive in China
Automotive in India
Source: Shriram, annual reports
New divisional structure of Defence Transfer of Combat Platforms
Sales figure FY 2015
Fiscal year 2015: survey
| in EUR million |
2014 | 2015 | ∆ 2015/ 2014 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Order intake | 2,812 | 2,693 | - 119 |
- 4% |
| Order backlog (Dec 31) | 6,516 | 6,422 | - 94 |
- 1% |
| Sales | 2,240 | 2,591 | + 351 | + 16% |
| Operational earnings | - 9 |
90 | + 99 | |
| Special items: one-offs, restructuring costs | - 58 |
0 | + 58 | |
| EBIT (reported) | - 67 |
90 | + 157 | |
| Employees (Dec 31) | 9,184 | 9,581 | + 397 | + 4% |
Key figures Defence by division
Figures before intra-segmental consolidation
Quarterly development
Sales Defence in EUR million Operational earnings Defence in EUR million
Cash flow statement
| Continuing operations in EUR million |
2014 | 2015 | ∆ 2015/2014 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Group net income | - 72 |
32 | +104 |
| Amortization / depreciation | 85 | 85 | 0 |
| Change in pension accruals | 0 | 8 | +8 |
| Cash flow | 13 | 125 | + 112 |
| Changes in working capital and other items | - 69 |
- 67 |
+2 |
| Net cash used in operating activities | - 56 |
58 | +114 |
| Cash outflow for additions to tangible and intangible assets |
- 76 |
- 96 |
-20 |
| Free cash flow from operations | - 132 |
- 38 |
+ 94 |
Research & development, capex, depreciation & amortization
R&D in EUR million Capex in EUR million D&A in EUR million
* Subsidies for tooling costs
Disclaimer
This presentation contains "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the US Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 with respect to Rheinmetall's financial condition, results of operations and businesses and certain of Rheinmetall's plans and objectives. These forward-looking statements reflect the current views of Rheinmetall's management with respect to future events. In particular, such forward-looking statements include the financial guidance contained in the outlook for 2016.
Forward-looking statements are sometimes, but not always, identified by their use of a date in the future or such words as "will", "anticipates", "aims", "could", "may", "should", "expects", "believes", "intends", "plans" or "targets". By their nature, forward-looking statements are inherently predictive, speculative and involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that will occur in the future. There are a number of factors that could cause actual results and developments to differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements. In particular, such factors may have a material adverse effect on the costs and revenue development of Rheinmetall. Further, the economic downturn in Rheinmetall's markets, and changes in interest and currency exchange rates, may also have an impact on Rheinmetall's business development and the availability of financing on favorable conditions. The factors that could affect Rheinmetall's future financial results are discussed more fully in Rheinmetall's most recent annual and quarterly reports which can be found on its website at www.rheinmetall.com.
All written or oral forward-looking statements attributable to Rheinmetall or any group company of Rheinmetall or any persons acting on their behalf contained in or made in connection with this presentation are expressly qualified in their entirety by factors of the kind referred to above. No assurances can be given that the forward-looking statements in this presentation will be realized. Except as otherwise stated herein and as may be required to comply with applicable law and regulations, Rheinmetall does not intend to update these forward-looking statements and does not undertake any obligation to do so.
This presentation does not constitute an offering of securities or otherwise constitute an invitation or inducement to any person to underwrite, subscribe for or otherwise acquire or dispose of securities in Rheinmetall AG or any of its direct or indirect subsidiaries.
160317 Analysts conference FY2015