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Repsol S.A. — Investor Presentation 2021
Oct 28, 2021
1881_rns_2021-10-28_73110a16-2755-42bc-a623-9e1ece8d0fac.pdf
Investor Presentation
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3Q21 Results
28 October 2021
Josu Jon Imaz CEO
REPSOL CONFERENCE CALL
Disclaimer
ALL RIGHTS ARE RESERVED
© REPSOL, S.A. 2021
This document contains statements that Repsol believes constitute forward-looking statements which may include statements regarding the intent, belief, or current expectations of Repsol and its management, including statements with respect to trends affecting Repsol's financial condition, financial ratios, results of operations, business, strategy, geographic concentration, production volume and reserves, capital expenditures, costs savings, investments and dividend payout policies. These forward-looking statements may also include assumptions regarding future economic and other conditions, such as future crude oil and other prices, refining and marketing margins and exchange rates and are generally identified by the words "expects", "anticipates", "forecasts", "believes", estimates", "notices" and similar expressions. These statements are not guarantees of future performance, prices, margins, exchange rates or other events and are subject to material risks, uncertainties, changes and other factors which may be beyond Repsol's control or may be difficult to predict. Within those risks are those factors described in the filings made by Repsol and its affiliates with the "Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores" in Spain and with any other supervisory authority of those markets where the securities issued by Repsol and/or its affiliates are listed.
Repsol does not undertake to publicly update or revise these forward-looking statements even if experience or future changes make it clear that the projected performance, conditions or events expressed or implied therein will not be realized.
This document mentions resources which do not constitute proved reserves and will be recognized as such when they comply with the formal conditions required by the system "SPE/WPC/AAPG/SPEE/SEG/SPWLA/EAGE Petroleum Resources Management System" (SPE-PRMS) (SPE – Society of Petroleum Engineers).
In October 2015, the European Securities Markets Authority (ESMA) published its Guidelines on Alternative Performance Measures (APMs). The guidelines apply to regulated information published on or after 3 July 2016. The information and breakdowns relative to the APMs used in this presentation are updated quarterly on Repsol´s website.
This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase or subscribe securities, pursuant to the provisions of the Royal Legislative Decree 4/2015 of the 23rd of October approving the recast text of the Spanish Securities Market Law and its implementing regulations. In addition, this document does not constitute an offer to purchase, sell, or exchange, neither a request for an offer of purchase, sale or exchange of securities in any other jurisdiction.
The information contained in the document has not been verified or revised by the External Auditors of Repsol.
Agenda
01. Key messages 02. Operational highlights 03. Financial results 04. Capital Allocation 05. Outlook 2021
Key messages
Moving into next phase of capital allocation driven by strong performance YTD
Highest quarterly results since 2018 supported on positive macro scenario
Upstream: higher prices offset lower production
- All business segments benefit from improved macro
- Adj. Net Income: 3Q21 €623 M (+19% vs 3Q19), 9M21 €1.6 B (-3% vs 9M19)
- CFFO ex-WC: +28% 3Q21 vs 3Q19, +6% 9M21 vs 9M19
- FCF: 3Q21 €0.9 B; 9M21 €1.9 B
- Production -6% vs 2Q21
- Operational issues solved by end of 3Q. October production at ~575 Kboe/d
- Value-over-volume strategy remains
- Industrial: recovery of Refining and strong Chemicals
-
Next phase of capital allocation
-
Inflection point of Refining confirmed: higher margins and utilizations
- Strong Chemicals margins partially softened from mid-year maximums
- Accelerating growth in Low Carbon: additional €1 B capex 2021-2025
- Proposal to improve shareholder remuneration: +5% increase of 2022 dividend to €0.63 per share ~5% capital reduction through redemption of 75 M treasury shares
Market environment
All business segments benefit from improving macro scenario
Refining Margin Indicator (\$/bbl)
Henry Hub (\$/Mbtu)
5 Repsol 3Q21 Results
Operational highlights – Upstream
Higher prices support stronger results. Production back to normal levels in October
Production 3Q21 vs 2Q21
- Production issues (Peru LNG, T&T and Marcellus) already solved (October production ~575 Kboe/d)
- Higher prices more than offset lower volumes:
- 3Q21 vs 2Q21: +9% Adj. Net Income, -6% production
- 3Q21 vs 3Q20: +655% Adj. Net Income, -14% production
Operational highlights – Upstream
Eagle Ford
YME
Norway
Marcellus
New FID's
US
• 2
Assuring future production by progressing in 14 key projects
Operational highlights – Industrial
Recovery of refining margin and utilization. Chemicals on track to beat FY guidance
• Margin indicator: 3.2 \$/bbl 3Q21 vs 1.5 \$/bbl in 2Q21
Refining
Higher margins and utilizations
- Highest utilization rates since 1Q20: Distillation 81%, Conversion 92%
- End of furlough in La Coruña and Bilbao
- Start of planned turnaround of Cartagena in October
Chemicals
Margins remain at historical maximums
- On track to surpass FY21 €1 B EBITDA objective
- Margin indicator: -4% 3Q21 vs. 2Q21 record levels
- International margins remain at high cycle values despite feedstock prices
Utilization of refining capacity
International Petrochemical Margins
Operational highlights – Commercial and Renewables
Gradual recovery of Mobility. Progress on Renewables pipeline
Ongoing recovery to normalized levels
- Mobility Sales in Service Stations in Spain -10% vs 3Q19
- Completed disposal of Mobility business in Italy
Sales in Spain service stations vs. 2019 levels
Renewable Generation
Progress on project pipeline
- Valdesolar: started operations in July
- Awarded 138 MW of new wind capacity
- Cabo Leonés III: completed construction and secured project finance
- Atacama: start of construction
• 1 st FID: Jicarilla solar farm
Financial results
3Q21 Results
| Results (€ Million) | Q3 2021 | Q2 2021 | Q3 2020 | 9M 2021 | 9M 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upstream | 385 | 351 | 51 | 1.063 | 0 |
| Industrial | 100 | 166 | (67) | 339 | 229 |
| Commercial and Renewables | 169 | 127 | 169 | 397 | 332 |
| Corporate and Others | (31) | (156) | (146) | (217) | (365) |
| Adjusted Net Income | 623 | 488 | 7 | 1.582 | 196 |
| Inventory effect | 139 | 168 | 40 | 628 | (1.048) |
| Special items | (58) | (69) | (141) | (271) | (1.726) |
| Net Income | 704 | 587 | (94) | 1.939 | (2.578) |
| Financial data (€ Million) | Q3 2021 | Q2 2021 | Q3 2020 | 9M 2021 | 9M 2020 |
| EBITDA | 1.951 | 1.798 | 882 | 5.586 | 1.471 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA CCS | 1.759 | 1.565 | 828 | 4.719 | 2.924 |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.439 | 902 | 1.258 | 3.371 | 2.122 |
| Net Debt with leases | 6.136 | 6.386 | 7.188 | 6.136 | 7.188 |
Capital allocation
Next phase of capital allocation framework
- Additional €1 B Low Carbon 2021-2025 investment
- Low Carbon 2021-25 capex increases from 30 to 35%
- Capital Employed in LC increases from 40 to 45% by 2030
30% ~35% Low Carbon Business Legacy Business % Low Carbon Businesses B€ 18.3 19.3
Repsol SP 21-25 updated Capex
Accelerated growth in Low Carbon Increased Shareholder Remuneration
- 2022 Cash dividend €0.63 per share, +5% above Strategic Plan commitment
- Capital reduction through redemption of 75 M shares. Launching in November a program to purchase 35 M shares with the rest coming from treasury stock position
Allocation of >€1 B extra CFFO in 2021 vs budget
- Increased renewable capex → entrance in the US market
- Improve shareholder remuneration → treasury share position 49 M shares
- Reinforce financial strength → net debt reduction
Capital allocation
Increasing our ambitions into the Energy Transition
Increasing renewable and hydrogen ambition and setting new CCB targets
-
- Net electrolyzer capacity (GW)
-
- Gross renewable generation capacity
-
Original SP 7.5GW and 15GW Low Carbon Generation. (5.2GW and 12.7GW Renewable Generation)
Improved outlook to the end of 2021 Outlook 2021
| Production | ~ 580 Kboe/d | • - 3% vs. previous guidance due to longer than expected operational issues in 3Q |
|---|---|---|
| Refining Margin Indicator |
>2 \$/bbl | in 4Q21; ~ 4.5 \$/bbl • >4 \$/bbl 4Q to date |
| EBITDA CCS | ~ €6.7 B | • + €0.6 B vs. previous guidance (prices and industrial margins) • ~ 65% higher than in 2020 |
| Capex | ~ €2.9 B | |
| Net debt | ~ €6 B | • 2020 closing net debt €6.8 B (hybrids transactions in 2021 €0.3 B) |
| Distributions | Dividend increase and SBB |
• + 5% cash dividend to be paid in 2022 (€0.63 / share) • SBB: 75 M shares (~ 5%) to be approved by AGM |
Better macro environment supports cash generation and distributions
3Q21 Results
28 October 2021
Repsol Investor Relations [email protected]