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Repsol S.A. — Investor Presentation 2020
May 5, 2020
1881_rns_2020-05-05_2247dc91-8d2c-4bf0-ae19-6bc35bbbdb4d.pdf
Investor Presentation
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WEBCAST – CONFERENCE CALL
First Quarter 2020 Results
ALL RIGHTS ARE RESERVED
© REPSOL, S.A. 2020
Given the COVID-19 spread, the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2 virus (commonly known as coronavirus), global economic growth is expected to be lower than 2019. If the coronavirus pandemic is shortlived, the economy is expected to approach recession during the first half of 2020, but could experience an upturn afterwards. However, if the virus spread continues for longer and affects the main economies to a greater extent, growth consequences would be extended, maybe significantly, including the possibility of a recession in 2020 and beyond.
The evolution of the pandemic and the mitigation measures applied by health authorities generate uncertainty regarding with the key assumptions used to assess asset value and measure the Group's liabilities. These key assumptions include, among others, commodity prices, inventories and our products, changes in crude oil and gas demand, and the discount rate to be applied. The information included in this document is inside information pursuant to the provision of article 226 of the Spanish Securities Market Law.
This document contains statements that Repsol believes constitute forward-looking statements which may include statements regarding the intent, belief, or current expectations of Repsol and its management, including statements with respect to trends affecting Repsol's financial condition, financial ratios, results of operations, business, strategy, geographic concentration, production volume and reserves, capital expenditures, costs savings, investments and dividend payout policies. These forward-looking statements may also include assumptions regarding future economic and other conditions, such as future crude oil and other prices, refining and marketing margins and exchange rates and are generally identified by the words "expects", "anticipates", "forecasts", "believes", estimates", "notices" and similar expressions. These statements are not guarantees of future performance, prices, margins, exchange rates or other events and are subject to material risks, uncertainties, changes and other factors which may be beyond Repsol's control or may be difficult to predict. Within those risks are those factors described in the filings made by Repsol and its affiliates with the "Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores" in Spain and with any other supervisory authority of those markets where the securities issued by Repsol and/or its affiliates are listed.
Repsol does not undertake to publicly update or revise these forward-looking statements even if experience or future changes make it clear that the projected performance, conditions or events expressed or implied therein will not be realized.
This document mentions resources which do not constitute proved reserves and will be recognized as such when they comply with the formal conditions required by the system "SPE/WPC/AAPG/SPEE/SEG/SPWLA/EAGE Petroleum Resources Management System" (SPE-PRMS) (SPE – Society of Petroleum Engineers).
In October 2015, the European Securities Markets Authority (ESMA) published its Guidelines on Alternative Performance Measures (APMs). The guidelines apply to regulated information published on or after 3 July 2016. The information and breakdowns relative to the APMs used in this presentation are included in Appendix I "Alternative Performance Measures" of the consolidated Management Report 2019 and are updated with quarterly information on Repsol's website.
This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase or subscribe shares, pursuant to the provisions of the Royal Legislative Decree 4/2015 of the 23rd of October approving the recast text of the Spanish Securities Market Law and its implementing regulations. In addition, this document does not constitute an offer to purchase, sell, or exchange, neither a request for an offer of purchase, sale or exchange of securities in any other jurisdiction.
The information contained in the document has not been verified or revised by the External Auditors of Repsol.
Index
01. Market Environment
02. Operational Highlights
03. Financial Results
04. Impact of COVID-19
05. Resilience Plan and outlook 2020
06. Repsol and Society
COVID-19 challenges the energy industry
Market Environment
- Combined demand and supply shock caused by COVID-19 and oil price war
- Repsol has taken rapid action and defined an ambitious Resilience Plan for 2020
Brent plummeted below 20 \$/bbl at the end of the period 1Q20
Repsol's Resilience Plan for 2020 ensures the robustness of the balance sheet and the investment grade while advancing towards net zero carbon emissions by 2050
New business segments aligned with strategic vision
New business segments New segments aligned with our renewed strategic vision reflect Repsol's multi-energy and ESG-ready approach
Upstream production increases Y-o-Y
Operational Highlights
(Kboed)
Higher volumes in Eagle Ford, Marcellus and the first oil in Buckskin in June 2019 partially offset by lower gas demand, maintenance activities and the expiration of the Equion license
6 discoveries with combined gross resources ~650 Mboe, mainly located in our core exploration areas
Resilient performance of Industrial businesses
Operational Highlights
Refining
Premium in the CCS unit margin despite volatile environment and lower utilization rates
- 4.7 \$/bbl refining margin indicator
- 82% distillation utilization
Chemicals
Cracker downtimes partially offset by healthy margins
- International margins improvement
-
Run rates affected by maintenance and IQOXE1 shut down
-
Third party highly integrated with Repsol's chemical operations in Tarragona. Shut down following an accident earlier in the year. Repsol has implemented alternative logistic arrangements to guarantee the supply of the required products.
Commercial and Renewables
Operational Highlights
Mobility • COVID-19 negatively impacting sales since mid-March
Lubricants • Robust performance: higher margins and international businesses contribution
LPG • Negative impact from lower regulated bottle margins and a mild winter
- Gas & Power Growing retail client base
- ~2 GW renewable power generation under construction or advanced development
- Two new projects added to renewable pipeline
1Q20 results
Financial Results
| Results (€ Million) | Q1 2020 | Q1 2019 |
|---|---|---|
| Upstream | 9 0 |
323 |
| Industrial | 288 | 271 |
| Commercial and Renewables | 121 | 137 |
| Corporate and Others | -52 | -113 |
| Adjusted Net Income | 447 | 618 |
| Net Income | (1) -487 |
608 |
| Financial Data (€ Million) | Q1 2020 | Q1 2019 |
| EBITDA | 349 | 1,810 |
| EBITDA CCS | 1,455 | 1,803 |
| Operating Cash Flow | 596 | 1,161 |
| Net Debt | 4,478 | 3,686 |
Commitment to safeguard health and safety Impact of COVID-19
- Executive Committee monitors the situation and supports COVID-19 Coordination Committee
- Continuity of Repsol's industrial and commercial operations fully guaranteed
Industrial
Refining
Balancing production with sales and storage capacity
- 80% conversion utilization in April
- Minimum kerosene production
- Healthy naphtha and LPG demand
-
80% of May and June production already sold
Chemicals Benefitting from feedstock flexibility
- Solid margins
- Good demand levels
- Crackers at almost full capacity
Commercial and renewables
Mobility
Demand decline in Service Stations and Wholesales
- Demand in Service Stations now ~57% below normal levels (vs. 85% at highest point)
- Urban vs. main roads
Gas and Power Stable number of clients
- Demand decrease: Power (-15%) and gas (-20%)
- Client base increasing after resuming sales operations
Upstream
Exploration and Production
On course to adapt to the current situation
- Operated activity reduced to the essential
- Lower gas demand (Algeria, Bolivia, Peru, Indonesia and Malaysia)
- Development activity impacted by constraints and work-plan optimizations
Tier-1 resilience plan and leadership in low cycle
Resilience Plan 2020
Resilience Plan 2020(1)
- Opex €350 M
- Capex €1,000 M (60% in Upstream)
- Working Capital €800 M
Strengthened liquidity Eurobonds issuances €1,500 M Increased credit lines by €1,300 M
| Rating | S&P | Fitch | Moody's |
|---|---|---|---|
| BBB | BBB | Baa2 | |
| Stable outlook |
Stable outlook |
Negative outlook |
Public Domain Companies' Cuts over 2019 CFFO
Companies: BP, Chevron, Eni, Equinor, ExxonMobil, OMV, Shell and Total. Source: Companies Publications and Evaluate Energy. 1,1 \$/€ exchange considered to normalize figures.
With these measures, and in the current conditions, net debt by the end of 2020 will remain in line compared to Dec'2019
Updated outlook for 2020
Outlook 2020
| FY2020 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating | Production | ~ 650 kboed | • Value over volume. 630 Kboed without Libya. |
|
| metrics | Ref. margin indicator |
~ 4 \$/bbl | • Demanding macroeconomic environment |
|
| Financial outlook |
Net Debt (Dec'20) |
€4.2 Bn | • Flat year-on-year |
|
| Dividend | 0.55 €/share | • Upcoming July scrip dividend |
||
| Shareholder remuneration |
Remove scrip dilution |
100 % | • Cancelation of shares issued with Scrip |
Repsol ensures its short term financial strength to progress in its commitment to become a net zero emissions company by 2050
All Repsol's resources at the disposal of society
Repsol and Society
Daily new COVID cases in Spain
small walk
Source: Ministerio de Sanidad de España as of April 27th 2020.
Repsol has maintained under operation all its plants, infrastructures and essential services, ensuring the availability of critical products and services
activities
15
Integrated model and portfolio flexibility to withstand crisis Conclusions
- Tier-1 Resilience Plan that stands out in the sector (€Bn)
- 2020 self-finance commitment to face the crisis: Net Debt flat vs. Dec'2019
- Sustainable multi-energy project: decarbonization strategy reaffirmed
- Reduce Carbon Intensity indicator by 3% in 2020
- 7.5 GW low carbon generation target by 2025
- Reduce CO2 emissions in all businesses
- Industry leading dividend yield
Organic Free Cash Flow
Repsol is organic FCF positive each and every year since the previous oil price downturn
Source: Repsol
Repsol is a renowned resilient leader to navigate through down cycles
WEBCAST – CONFERENCE CALL
First Quarter 2020 Results
Repsol Investor Relations [email protected]