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Repsol S.A. — Earnings Release 2020
Feb 18, 2021
1881_rns_2021-02-18_a070d02b-4d41-4ab0-a732-883c0a50fe86.pdf
Earnings Release
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4Q and FY 2020 Results
18 February 2021
Josu Jon Imaz CEO
REPSOL CONFERENCE CALL
1

Disclaimer
ALL RIGHTS ARE RESERVED
© REPSOL, S.A. 2021
This document contains statements that Repsol believes constitute forward-looking statements which may include statements regarding the intent, belief, or current expectations of Repsol and its management, including statements with respect to trends affecting Repsol's financial condition, financial ratios, results of operations, business, strategy, geographic concentration, production volume and reserves, capital expenditures, costs savings, investments and dividend payout policies. These forward-looking statements may also include assumptions regarding future economic and other conditions, such as future crude oil and other prices, refining and marketing margins and exchange rates and are generally identified by the words "expects", "anticipates", "forecasts", "believes", estimates", "notices" and similar expressions. These statements are not guarantees of future performance, prices, margins, exchange rates or other events and are subject to material risks, uncertainties, changes and other factors which may be beyond Repsol's control or may be difficult to predict. Within those risks are those factors described in the filings made by Repsol and its affiliates with the "Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores" in Spain and with any other supervisory authority of those markets where the securities issued by Repsol and/or its affiliates are listed.
Repsol does not undertake to publicly update or revise these forward-looking statements even if experience or future changes make it clear that the projected performance, conditions or events expressed or implied therein will not be realized.
This document mentions resources which do not constitute proved reserves and will be recognized as such when they comply with the formal conditions required by the system "SPE/WPC/AAPG/SPEE/SEG/SPWLA/EAGE Petroleum Resources Management System" (SPE-PRMS) (SPE – Society of Petroleum Engineers).
In October 2015, the European Securities Markets Authority (ESMA) published its Guidelines on Alternative Performance Measures (APMs). The guidelines apply to regulated information published on or after 3 July 2016. The information and breakdowns relative to the APMs used in this presentation are updated quarterly on Repsol´s website.
This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase or subscribe securities, pursuant to the provisions of the Royal Legislative Decree 4/2015 of the 23rd of October approving the recast text of the Spanish Securities Market Law and its implementing regulations. In addition, this document does not constitute an offer to purchase, sell, or exchange, neither a request for an offer of purchase, sale or exchange of securities in any other jurisdiction.
The information contained in the document has not been verified or revised by the External Auditors of Repsol.
Index
01. Key messages 02. Strategic Plan 2021 -2025 03. Operational highlights 04. Financial results 05. Outlook 2021

Key messages
Solid 2020 performance in challenging environment

Resilience Plan performance above target
Net Debt reduction and strong cash flow generation
Progress towards long-term strategic objectives
Strong 4Q20 results in line with 2019
- €2.7 Bn of savings in 2020 (€0.5 Bn over initial objective)
- Opex and Capex reductions, Working Capital optimizations
- Net Debt reduced by €0.3 Bn (excluding hybrids) at \$42 Brent
- €2 Bn FCF (€0.8 Bn organic). Positive CFFO in all segments
- Protected credit rating
- Delivered shareholder remuneration commitments
- Strong FCF from legacy business
- Business transformation and development of low carbon platforms
- Adjusted Net Income 4Q20 €404 M vs €405 M in 4Q19
- New Strategic Plan 2021-2025 Working towards 2025+ targets despite challenging macro in 2020
Stepping up the energy transition – Driving growth and value Strategic Plan 2021-2025

| Maximize FCF of legacy businesses |
Low Carbon business platforms |
Evolution of our operating model |
|
|---|---|---|---|
| Leading the journey |
Self financed at \$50 Brent and \$2.5 HH |
Top quartile cash distribution to shareholders |
|
| to an ambitious destination |
Increased carbon intensity reduction targets: 10 to 12% in 2025 20 to 25% in 2030 40 to 50% in 2050 |
30% of capex in Low Carbon projects |
Dividend > €1 /sh in 2025 including conditional share buybacks
A profitable company in the Energy Transition with strong cashflow growth & capital discipline
Market environment
Commodity prices and product demand impacted by COVID-19




Henry Hub (\$/Mbtu)



6 Repsol 4Q20 Results
Operational highlights - Upstream
Upstream production
(kboed)
-34
Value over volume in resilience scenario. Organic FCF breakeven at ̴\$30/bbl

-38 +16 -4
- ‒ Libya stoppage from January to October. Currently producing ~300,000 bpd (gross).
- ‒ Temporary ceases of production in Colombia and Canada
- ‒ Lower gas demand in Indonesia 2019 2020


Operational highlights – Upstream
Exploration success in core areas. Progress in decarbonization of operations.

Successful highly selective drilling program in 2020 270,000 Tons of CO2e reduction in 2020 (2)

Remarkable success rate: 7 discoveries out of 9 wells completed in 2020
Focused exploration : 8 of 9 wells drilled in productive basins. Exploration costs 27% lower than in 2019.
High impact: Polok (Mexico), Stirrup (US Alaska) and Monument (US GoM) included in WoodMackenzie Top 10 discoveries of 2020 (1)
(1) WoodMackenzie Top 10 commercial & economically viable discoveries. (2) Repsol 4Q20 Results Through energy efficiency, methane and flaring initiatives

New production 2021-2025 pushes down emissions intensity
Sakakemang: CCS project in FFD phase with 1.5-2 Mt CO2 per year captured
Operational highlights - Industrial
Lower Refining margins and demand. Chemicals resilient through the crisis

Refining
Repsol assets remained among most competitive in Europe
• All refineries under operation in 2020
• Reduced breakeven to minimum levels
• Positive refining margin indicator in 4Q20 (2 \$/bbl on average in 2020)
Resilient through COVID-19 crisis
- Chemicals International margins gradually recovered to 2019 levels
- Sales in line with 2019
- 4Q20 better demand and margins
Acceleration of capacity adjustments
-4.000 -3.000 -2.000 -1.000 0 2007-2017 (10 years) 2020-2021 (>1year) European refinery rationalization announcements (kbbld) 14% of European capacity 2020 Europe closures announced (~1/3 of the total capacity rationalized after global financial crisis)
Utilization of Repsol's refining capacity

9 Repsol 4Q20 Results
IHS and internal source
Operational highlights - Industrial
Progress in the transformation of the Industrial business

Sustainable biofuels 1.3 Mt by 2025 >2 Mt by 2030
Cartagena: 1st advanced biofuels plant in Spain
250,000 Tn/y operational in 2023
Reduction of 900,000 Tons/y of CO2 emissions
Capex: €188 M
0.4 GWeq by 2025 1.2 GWeq by 2030 Renewable Hydrogen
Leading H24All European Consortium to produce renewable Hydrogen in Spain
100 MW Alkaline electrolyzer plant

Bilbao: net-zero emissions fuels plant
Using CO2 and green hydrogen generated with renewable energy
Bilbao: urban waste-to-gas generation plant
Puertollano: 1st biojet producer in Spain
7,000 Tn in 2020
Savings of 440 tons of CO2 emissions
Tarragona: Biojet production
10,000 Tn in January 2021 Savings of 630 tons of CO2 emissions
1 st operational photoelectrocatalysis pilot plant in 2020
Operational highlights - Commercial and Renewables
All businesses generated a higher operating result in 4Q20 than in 4Q19

Mobility • Strong 4Q20 operating result
- Sales in Service Stations -23% 2020 in Spain vs. 2019
-
2 Million digital clients
Transportation fuel demand monthly variation in Spain 2020 vs. 2019
| March | April | May | June | July | August | Sept. | Oct. | Nov. | Dec. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -28% | -42% | -24% | -11% | -10% | -10% | -13% | -19% | -14% | |
| -61% |
Lubricants, Asphalts and Specialties
and Gas
- Lower costs
- Contribution of International expansion (South East Asia, Mexico)
Electricity • +12% growth of retail client base in 2020
- +50% growth of client base since 2018
- Chile JV:
- Start of commercial operation Cabo Leones III
- FID Atacama, 14 years PPA
Source: CLH
Operational highlights – Commercial and Renewables
Building balanced renewable portfolio across technologies and geographies


-
Greenfield projects with interconnection rights, including solar hybridization projects in wind portfolio
-
COD: Commercial Operation Date Note: Considering 50% JV stake in Chile
Road to Net Zero: surpassed CO2 reduction targets for 2020 Operational highlights – Emission reductions

Delivered 2020 carbon intensity reduction target
Carbon Intensity Indicator reduction 2019-2020 % CII reduction (baseline 2016)

1Even without the lower activity due to COVID-19 Repsol reduced its CII over the 2020 3% target

Financial results
4Q20 and FY20 Results
| Results (€ Million) | Q4 2020 | Q3 2020 | Q4 2019 | Jan - Dec 2020 |
Jan - Dec 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upstream | 195 | 51 | 186 | 195 | 1.050 |
| Industrial | 68 | (67) | 242 | 297 | 913 |
| Commercial and Renewables | 153 | 169 | 123 | 485 | 541 |
| Corporate and Others | (12) | (146) | (146) | (377) | (462) |
| Adjusted Net Income | 404 | 7 | 405 | 600 | 2.042 |
| Inventory effect | 70 | 40 | 25 | (978) | (35) |
| Special items | (1.185) | (141) | (5.712) | (2.911) | (5.823) |
| Net Income | (711) | (94) | (5.282) | (3.289) | (3.816) |
| Financial data (€ Million) | Q4 2020 | Q3 2020 | Q4 2019 | Jan - Dec 2020 |
Jan - Dec 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 1.259 | 882 | 1.852 | 2.730 | 7.161 |
| EBITDA CCS | 1.160 | 828 | 1.815 | 4.084 | 7.201 |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.075 | 1.258 | 1.763 | 3.197 | 5.837 |
| Net Debt | 3.042 | 3.338 | 4.220 | 3.042 | 4.220 |

2021: ongoing transformation in a resilience scenario Outlook

| Upstream | Industrial | Customer-centric | Low-carbon generation |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FCF generation Flexible capex |
Transformation and operational efficiency |
Resilient and benefiting from context improvement |
+710 MW | ||
| Competitiveness programs to deliver €400 M of savings in 2021 | |||||
| Production | ~ 625 kboed | ||||
| Refining Margin Indicator |
\$3.5 /bbl | ||||
| EBITDA CCS (1) | ~ €5.3 Bn | • 30% higher than in 2020 |
|||
| Capex ~ €2.6 Bn |
• >25% deployed in Low Carbon platforms |
||||
| Net debt (with leases) |
≤ €6.8 Bn | • In line with 2020 (exc. hybrids transactions of 2021) |
|||
| Dividend | €0.6 /share | • From July dividend will be only in cash |
(1) @ \$50/bbl Brent, \$3/MMBtu HH and \$1.18/€.
Conclusions
Resilient performance and delivery on long-term strategic objectives

Finished 2020 in stronger financial position
Solid 4Q20 results close to pre-COVID levels
Strong FCF and lower breakevens
New Strategic Plan to 2025
- Resilience Plan delivered over initial targets
- Lower Net Debt and robust balance-sheet
- Delivered on shareholder commitments and decarbonization targets
- 4Q20 adjusted net income in line with 4Q19
- Strong performance of Customer-Centric businesses
- Positive CFFO in all segments
- €2 Bn of FCF in 2020 (€ 0.8 Bn organic)
- \$30 /bbl Upstream breakeven. Exploration success.
- Sound investment proposition into the Energy Transition
- Growth platforms to 2025+
- Legacy businesses as cash generators
- Progress in 2020 towards SP 2021-2025 targets
2021 still in "resilience mode" • Uncertainty and volatility despite recent oil price strength
4Q and FY 2020 Results
18 February 2021
Repsol Investor Relations [email protected]
