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REC Silicon — Investor Presentation 2016
Feb 12, 2016
3726_rns_2016-02-12_e6bdc28b-253a-478a-a64f-f0a2f0d472ae.pdf
Investor Presentation
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FOURTH QUARTER 2015
PRESENTATION
Disclaimer
This Presentation includes and is based, inter alia, on forward-looking information and statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ. These statements and this Presentation are based on current expectations, estimates and projections about global economic conditions, the economic conditions of the regions and industries that are major markets for REC Silicon ASA (including subsidiaries and affiliates) lines of business. These expectations, estimates and projections are generally identifiable by statements containing words such as "expects", "believes", "estimates" or similar expressions. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expectations include, among others, economic and market conditions in the geographic areas and industries that are or will be major markets for REC Silicon ASA's businesses, energy prices, market acceptance of new products and services, changes in governmental regulations, interest rates, fluctuations in currency exchange rates and such other factors as may be discussed from time to time in the presentation. Although REC Silicon ASA believes that its expectations and the presentation are based upon reasonable assumptions, it can give no assurance that those expectations will be achieved or that the actual results will be as set out in the presentation. REC Silicon ASA makes no representations or warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the presentation, and neither REC Silicon ASA nor any of its directors, officers or employees will have any liability to you or any other persons resulting from your use.
This presentation was prepared for the fourth quarter 2015 results presentation on February 12, 2016. Information contained herein will not be updated. The following slides should be read and considered in connection with the information given orally during the presentation.
REC Silicon ASA shares have not been registered under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the "Act"), and may not be offered or sold in the United States absent registration or an applicable exemption from the registration requirements of the Act.
| REC Silicon Q4 Financial Results | T. Torvund, CEO |
|---|---|
| U.S. / China Trade | F. Sullivan, CLO |
| Market Outlook | K . Levens, VP Commercial |
| Financial Overview | J.A. May II, CFO |
| Near-term Strategy | T. Torvund |
| Guidance | T. Torvund |
| Q & A |
Revenues: \$74.9 M EBITDA: (\$29.6 M) Loss
December 31, 2015 Cash Balance of \$95.4 M
- Will Meet Existing 2016 Debt Obligations
- No Additional Requirements for Funding
Additional Production Capacity Curtailment in Moses Lake
- Optimize Cash Flow and Maintain Liquidity
- Anticipate Restart June 2016
Impairment Charges of \$151.5 million
- Current Decrease in Spot Prices
- Continued Uncertainty Caused by the Trade Dispute
REC Silicon ASA Q4 2015 Key Metrics
| Polysilicon Sales Volume | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 2,740 MT | |||
| Tolled Products | 414 MT | |||
| Inventory Reduction 131 MT |
| FBR Production | |
|---|---|
| Actual | 2,321 MT |
| Guidance* | 2,220 MT |
| Deviation | 4.6% |
| FBR Cash Cost |
|
|---|---|
| Actual | \$16.5/kg |
| Guidance* | \$17.1/kg |
| Deviation | - 3.5% |
| Total Polysilicon Production | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 3,022 MT | ||
| Guidance* | 2,980 MT | ||
| Deviation | 1.4% |
Semiconductor Production Actual 288 MT Guidance* 300 MT Deviation - 4.0%
| Silicon Gases Sales Volume | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 709 MT | ||
| Guidance* | 700 MT | ||
| Deviation | 1.3% |
* Guidance presented November 4, 2015
5 © REC Silicon ASA. All rights reserved. Confidential February 12, 2016
Spot Market Polysilicon Price
Index 1 Index II Index III FBR PRIME
JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 2014 2015
- › REC Silicon Average Solar Grade Sales Price Decreased 4% vs. Q3 2015
- › Average Spot Market Price Decreased 8.7% vs. Q3 2015
- › Spot Price Decline Due to Oversupply and Year End Inventory Liquidation
Yulin JV Update
Yulin JV – On Track
- › Equipment tendering in progress, 70% issued or awarded
- › Critical path equipment under fabrication (Hydrogenation and FBR reactors and compressors)
- › Critical excavation and foundation work for 2015 completed
- › Mechanical construction contracts tendering in January to start after 2016 Chinese New Year holiday
- › 2016 and 2017 Capital Contributions Might Be Deferred If Financial Situation Requires
U.S. / China Trade War
U.S. / China Trade War
- › Already In 2016, U.S. and China Have Restarted Discussions and Reiterated Commitment for a Resolution at the Highest Levels
- MOFCOM Sent a Delegation to the U.S. For a Week in January to Discuss Resolution Structures
- Met with Several US Senators
- Important for U.S. & China's Climate Change Cooperation
- U.S. Trade Ambassador Froman and China's Minister Gao Met in Beijing on February 2, 2016
- China Requires a "Balanced and Reciprocal" Deal
- U.S. Needs Reasonable Market Access For its Polysilicon Producers
Why a Resolution Makes Sense for Both U.S. & China
› China
- Improved Access To U.S. Panel Market, Even More Valuable After ITC Extension
- Eliminate Risk Of Retrospective U.S. Duty Hikes
- Polysilicon Shortage Looming In China
- Incentivizing Movement of Solar Manufacturing Outside Of China Threatens China's Solar Dominance
› U.S.
- U.S. AD/CVD Orders Depreciating Commercial Value
- Leading Panel Producers Reducing Costs, U.S. Prices Decreasing & Converging With Global Prices
- Significant 3rd Country Panel & Cell Capacity Exists To Service U.S. "Tariff Free"
- Re-opening China Market For The High Tech U.S. Polysilicon Industry Creates More Value On Balance For U.S. Interests
Additional Pressure For a Resolution
- › Hemlock Breach of Contract Litigation Against SolarWorld Subsidiary
- \$676 Million Case, Pending in US District Court in Michigan
- SolarWorld Lost Key Motion in October 2015, Resulting in Significant Drop in Share Price
- Trial Date in May 2016
- › Hemlock: US Polysilicon Producer
- Owned by Dow Corning and Shin Etsu
- Polysilicon Capacity (Michigan Plant): Estimated at 32,000 MT
Continued Growth in PV Market in 2016
IHS, PV demand market tracker_Q4 2015 updated, Jan 16th 2016 GTM Research, PV Pulse, Jan 2016 Photon Consulting 2-10-16
14 © REC Silicon ASA. All rights reserved. Confidential February 12, 2016
Regional Solar Installation Forecasts
Emerging Markets Installation Forecasts
Source: GTM Research Solar Executive Briefing Q4 2015 Provisional
16 © REC Silicon ASA. All rights reserved. Confidential February 12, 2016
›Extension of ITC Credit in the US
›United Nations Conference on Climate Change (COP21: Paris)
›Higher Growth Expectations for Emerging Markets
Source: : GTM Research Solar Executive Briefing Q4 2015 Provisional
Recent Price Increases Due to Reduced Inventory
Source:GTM Research, PV Pulse February 2016
18 © REC Silicon ASA. All rights reserved. Confidential February 12, 2016
Market Outside China
- › Continue Qualification and Optimization Plan
- › Continue to Discount Aggressively if Required to Maximize Volumes
Target Sales to Reduce Inventory and Generate Cash
› Sales Supported by On Hand Inventories Until Restart
Sales Strategy Outside of China – Maximize Volume
Market Dynamics
- Timing of Product Transition With Customers
- Qualification Plans/Schedules
- Logistics, Customer Inventory Effects and Timing
Market Penetration Efforts
- New Customer Qualification
- Additional Applications
- Increase Crucible Share
New Opportunities
- Wafer Capacity Increasing Outside of China
Maximize Sales Volume and Reduce Inventory
21 © REC Silicon ASA. All rights reserved. Confidential February 12, 2016
Financial Review
Revenues - \$74.9 M
- › Decreased Polysilicon Sales Volumes
- 39% Sales Volume Decrease from Q3 2015
- (4%) Solar Grade Price Decrease from Q3 2015 (Excluding Fines & Powders)
- 414 MT Sales From Tolling Activities
- › Silicon Gas Sales Volumes 709 MT
- 10% Sales Volume Increase from Q3 2015
- Silane Price Decrease of (2%) From Q3 2015
February 12, 2016
EBITDA – Loss of (\$29.6 M)
- Lower Polysilicon Volumes
- Lower Polysilicon Prices
- \$6.1 M Inventory Write-downs
- \$7.0 M Bad Debt Expense
23 © REC Silicon ASA. All rights reserved. Confidential
Q4 2015 Cash Flows
Cash Flows From Operating Activities \$12 M
- › EBITDA Loss of (\$29.6 M)
- › Working Capital Decrease \$44.1 M
- Decreased Inventories \$25.6 M
- Decreased Accounts Receivable \$23.0 M
- Decreased Accounts Payable (\$4.5 M)
- › Interest payments (\$2.3 M)
Cash Outflows From Investing Activities (\$8.6 M)
› Purchases of Property Plant and Equipment \$8.6M
Nominal Net Debt - \$109 M
- › Decreased by \$4.2 M during Q4 2015
- › Increase in Cash of \$0.7 M
- › Decrease in Nominal Debt of \$3.4 M
Nominal Debt - \$205 M
› Decreased by \$3.4 M in Q4 2015 Due to Stronger US Dollar
No Further Debt Obligations until May 2018
USD million
- Indemnification Loan (NOK)
- 2016 NOK Bond (May 2016)
- 2018 NOK Bond (May 2018)
- 2018 USD Convertible Bond (Aug 2018)
Near Term Strategy
2015 Year of Polysilicon Imports Into China
27 © REC Silicon ASA. All rights reserved. Confidential February 12, 2016
Polysilicon Industry Supply Forecast
Source: Competitor releases, industry analysts, REC Market Intelligence
Polysilicon Will Become Limiting Factor for PV Market Growth
Source: Demand Data Installations: GTM Research, PV Pulse, January 2016 Supply Data: Competitor releases, industry analysts, REC Market Intelligence
29 © REC Silicon ASA. All rights reserved. Confidential February 12, 2016
High Inventory Levels Lead to Production Curtailment
Inventory Increase in 2015
- › Trade War (Limited Access to China)
- › Excess Polysilicon Supply
Inventory Reduction in 2016
- › Capacity Curtailment in Moses Lake
- › Increasing Polysilicon Sales Volumes
Shutdown of Moses Lake Production February – June 2016
- › Managing Inventory Levels to Maintain Cash
- › Inspection & Maintenance Activities Will Be Performed With REC Employees
- › No Layoffs Expected
- › Butte Remains At Full Capacity
2016 Debt Obligations Met With Current Cash Forecast
- › Moderate Solar Grade Price Increases in 2016
- › Silane III and IV Startup Expected in June 2016
- Restart Dependent on:
- Trade War Status
- Market Conditions
› Maintain Liquidity
- Silane III and IV Capacity Curtailment
- Reduce Polysilicon Inventory Levels
- Limit Capital Expenditures
Full Capacity at ~\$10/kg Cash Cost for Next Two Years
REC Silicon Near Term Strategy Summary
- › Will Meet 2016 Debt Obligations Without Additional Funding
- No Further Debt Obligation Until May 2018
- Capital Contributions to Yulin JV Might be Deferred if Financial Situation Requires
- › Strong Momentum to Resolve U.S. China Trade Dispute
- › Temporary Shut-down of Moses Lake Will Allow Return to Normal Inventory Levels
- › Return to Full Capacity June 2016 With Industry Leading Cash Costs
- › Moses Lake Production Units Capable of Running for Two Years Without a Planned Maintenance Outage
- › Low Cash Costs Make REC Silicon Competitive at Discounted Prices
| FBR Production |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 Actual |
14,098 MT |
|||
| Guidance | 14,000 MT |
|||
| Change | 0.7% |
| FBR Cash Cost |
|
|---|---|
| 2015 Actual |
\$12.4/kg |
| Guidance | \$12.4/kg |
| Change | 0.0% |
| Silicon Gas Sales |
|
|---|---|
| 2015 Actual |
3,076 MT |
| Guidance | 3,060 MT |
| Change | 0.5% |
| Semiconductor Production |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 Actual |
1,194 MT | |||
| Guidance | 1,210 MT |
|||
| Change | -1.3% |
| Total Polysilicon Production |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 Actual |
16,883 MT |
||||
| Guidance | 16,840 MT | ||||
| Change | 0.3% |
| CapEx | |
|---|---|
| Maintenance | \$12 M |
| Expansion | \$43 M |
| Total | \$55 M |
* Guidance presented November 4, 2015
| FBR Production | FBR | Cash Cost | Total Polysilicon Production | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | 820 MT | Q1 | N/A | Q1 | 1,540 MT |
| Semiconductor Production | Silicon Gas Sales | CapEx | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | 450 MT | Q1 | 600 MT | Maintenance | \$ 9 M | |
| 2016 | 1,650 MT |
2016 | 3,360 MT |
Expansion | \$ 7 M |
2016 Total \$16 M
Q1 2016 Reporting May 3, 2016
REC Silicon ASA
Fornebuveien 84 PO Box 63 1324 Lysaker Norway Phone +47 407 24 086
About REC Silicon ASA
REC Silicon ASA is a leading producer of advanced silicon materials, supplying high-purity polysilicon and silicon gases to the solar and electronics industries worldwide. We combine 30 years' experience and best-in-class proprietary technology to deliver on customer expectations. Our two U.S. based plants have a capacity of more than 20,000 MT high-purity polysilicon. REC Silicon is listed on the Oslo stock exchange under the ticker: REC.
For more information, go to: www.recsilicon.com