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QUANTUM GRAPHITE LIMITED — Investor Presentation 2023
Mar 13, 2023
65646_rns_2023-03-13_219316e4-4d30-4fb4-bd2e-e70682740bb7.pdf
Investor Presentation
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MARKET RELEASE For Immediate Release 14 March 2023
Company Presentation
This week, in London, United Kingdom, the attached presentation is being utilized for showcasing the Company to insurance underwriters.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Company Secretary Quantum Graphite Limited T: +61 3 8614 8414
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QUANTUM GRAPHITE
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EV Li-ion
Long
Batteries
Duration
Battery
Storage
THE FUTURE OF GRAPHITE
Thermal
Presentation to London Insurance Markets Management
MARCH 2023
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www.quantumgraphite.com
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About Quantum Graphite Limited
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Board of Directors
Bruno Ruggiero, Chairman
Sal Catalano, Managing Director
David Trimboli
Michael Wyer
Key Technical Personnel/Partners
Mine Engineer, Dr. Karen Lloyd (Jorvik Resources)
Metallurgical (ALS Global, Lycopodium Minerals)
Mineral Process Engineers (Lycopodium Minerals)
Thermal Process Engineers (ProTherm Systems)
High Temperature Research Partner (TU Freiburg, INEMET)
Capital Structure
Shares on Issue (on a fully diluted basis) approx. 337 million.
Top 50 Shareholders >75%.
Board represents approximately >40% shareholding.
Project
Uley 2 fully permitted - Program for Environmental Protection and Remediation, PEPR 2014/110
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Tenement Tenement Type Interest
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| ML5561 | MiningLicence | 100% | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ML5562 | MiningLicence | 100% | |
| RL66 | Retention Licence | 100% | |
| RL67 | Retention Licence | 100% | |
| EL6224 | Exploration Licence | 100% |
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2
ULEY 2, PHASE 1 AT A GLANCE.
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At a glance… large resource province
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ML 5561
ML 5562
RL 66
RL 67
ULEY
560000 565000
ML 5561
ML 5562
RL 66
ULEY RL 67
EL 6224
HOMESTEAD
SALT LAKE
KACEY
75 km [2]
LEGEND
EM Target
Primary EM Target
Secondary EM Target
Exploration Lease
FISHERY Retention Lease
Mining Lease
Conservation and National Parks
Lincoln (CP)
N Lincoln (NP)
Sleaford Mere (CP)
0 1,250 2,500 5,000 Railway line
Meters GDA94; MGA53 Road
560000 565000
6150000 6150000
6145000 6145000
6140000 6140000
6135000 6135000
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At a glance... JORC 2012 Mineral Resources and Reserves
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Mineralisation remains open along strike to the south and north and at depth, well within the Company’s Mining and Retention leases.
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Resource Classification Tonnes (kt) TGC (%) Density (t/m [3] ) TGC (kt)
Uley 3 Inferred 900 6.6 2.1 59
Uley 3 Total 900 6.6 2.1 59
Uley 2 Measured 800 15.6 2.1 125
Indicated 4,200 10.4 2.1 435
Inferred 1,300 10.5 2.2 137
Uley 2 Total 6,300 11.1 2.1 697
Uley Project Total TOTAL 7,200 10.5 2.1 757
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At a glance… immediate expansion options
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Excluding the other mineralised envelopes (within EL 6224) the - Uley 2 Project is a multi generation project.
Priority 1 Short Term Ore Reserve extension
-
Uley 2 South 50m
-
Infill drilling at Uley 3 (area bordered by blue dotted line)
Priority 2 Medium Term Resource extension
-
Uley 3 South
-
Extension drilling to 50m-by-50m intervals
Priority 3 Long Term Resource extension
-
Uley 2 West geophysical anomaly target
-
Uley 2 South beyond Priority 1 along strike of the geophysical anomaly.
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ML 5562 ML 5561
N
Tailings Storage
Facility
Uley 1
(Original
Mine)
Core
Plant shed
Uley 2 Uley 2
West Uley 3
6 75 0
Uley 2
South Uley 3
South
officeSite
0 500
METRES
Bridgewater Formation calcarenite dune crest line SIROTEM conductivity response (μV/A)
ML Mineral lease
Thin sandy soil with ironstone gravel
over weathered Proterozoic bedrock RL Retention lease
HD SLEAFORD
HD ULEY
RL 66
RL 65
RL 67
175 0
500
1750
1750
500
425030 00
6750
1750
3000
1750
5 500
500
5500
3000
3000
1750
1250
3 000
55004250
4250
3000 5500
1750
1750
3 00 0
4250
HD ULEY
HD LINCOLN
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Uley 2 Ore Reserve and near-mine extension target priorities
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6
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At a glance… Uley 2 Phase 1, low cost, high spec producer
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Uley 2 Mining Study and Feasibility delivers strong financial metrics
Total undiscounted cash flow A$310.5million* Crusher feed Graphitic carbon grade 11.89% Graphitic carbon recovery 84% Concentrate purity Capital expenditure A$79.98 million Processing cost (PCAF) A$55.3 per tonne Mining cost (MCAF) A$2.5/t milled at surface plus 5c for every 4m Production 55,000 tonnes per annum Product Cost (Av LOM) Product Price (Ex-works)
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*Includes JORC 2012 Reserves and Resources
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At a glance… Uley 2 Phase 1, processing and production
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Comprehensive met results
ROM ore crushing
confirm historical high quality
production mix
• Medium to Extra-Large Flake -
of gC.
Closed circuit single
• Very clean geochemistry, no stage SAG grinding Manufacture of
Thermal Storage
deleterious elements, remaining Media
impurities are quartz and alumina.
Rougher Specialised
flotation followed by Product
Size Approx. Graphitic four stages of cleaner flotationPolishing process applied to each flotation stage Manufacture QUANTUM SUNLANDS PARTNERSHIP
Fraction Weight C Purity concentrate
(Mesh) Dist. (%) (%)
Proprietary
Tails thickening and Heat Purification
+50 10.5 discharge Final concentrate Process
thickening, filtering
and drying
-50+100 35.8
-100+200 28.7
Dry concentrate
-200 25.0 90.7 screening
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At a glance... MRI offtake for 100% of Uley 2, Stage 1
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-
Binding offtake with global metal and minerals trading group, MRI Trading AG delivers peer leading financial strength and unmatched commercial coverage
-
Near perfect alignment with MRI markets and key customers focus, i.e., Europe, Japan, Korea
-
MRI’s regional freight capabilities provide excellent logistics fit and ensure access to best pricing options
-
Innovative price setting methodology provides MRI with flexibility to contract strategically and the Company the opportunity to maximise prices in tight markets (see announcements for details)
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9
THE GRAPHITE MARKET – CRYSTAL BALL GAZING
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Non EV Growth Segments… refractory, expandables, foils, etc.
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-
Non EV long term growth of natural flake demand driven by higher end thermal management applications.
-
Growth in expandables forecast at approximately 6% compared with approximately 3% for traditional refractory products.
-
Specialised natural flake powders is the target market for QGL’s extra large flake production.
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Expandable Graphite Demand Forecast
Expandable graphite demand forecast, 2015-2040
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200,000
150,000
+6%
100,000
50,000
0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040
tonnes
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Flame retardent Other Applications
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Source: Benchmark Mineral Intelligence
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Benchmark Mineral Intelligence… today, seems about right
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-
Overall production of natural flake must double to meet rapid transition to EV.
-
Doubling of natural flake graphite every 5 years will exert significant pressure on prices at short end of price curve (eg. lithium post Jan 2021).
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Flake Long Term Demand Forecast
9,000 8,700
2025 2030 2035
2.4M tonnes 4.3M tonnes 8.7M tonnes 7,773
7,500
6,854
6,035
6,000
5,355
4,822
4,500 4,249
3,660
3,157
3,000 2,717
2,366
2,037
[1][,][736]
1,500 671 727 788 845 930 1,085 [1,253] [1][,][467]
0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035
Li-ion battery anode demand - natural flake Carburisation Lubricants
Refractory and foundry Friction products Carbon brushes
Expanded graphite Graphite shapes Other uses
‘000 tonnes
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Source: Benchmark Mineral Inteligence
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Credit Suisse… a little more bullish
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-
Structural deficit at least from 2025 but likely earlier.
-
High probability that deficit may exceed forecasts given unreliability of historical forecasting.
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Demand outstrips supply in both a high and low case
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Probable additional tonnes High probably additional tonnes
Operational supply CS - Low Case CS - High Case
Source: Credit Suisse - Super Materials Demand Model; CS commodities
Demand and supply of battery-anode graphite
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Critical metrics… these are the numbers to watch
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- Anode raw material synthetic to natural flake market share
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-
Over the next 12-18 months natural flake will increase from 1/3 anode market share
-
From 2025 onwards, natural flake dominates anode raw material.
-
Dominance of natural flake coincides with structural market deficit resulting in significant price pressures.
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Natural vs synthetic graphite demand - high case
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 2050
Synthetic Natural
Graphite demand (ktonnes)
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Source: Credit Suisse - Super Materials Demand Model
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Short term… this is what we’re facing
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-
10% deficit this year largely covered by inventories, manageable impact on price.
-
Significant higher prices will emerge well before forecast 2025 deficit of 32%
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deficit for graphite used in Li-ion batteries
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10%
5%
4%
5%
3%
1% [1%] 1%
0%
-1%
-5%
-4%
-10%
-10% -10%
-15%
-17%
-20%
-25%
-30%
-32%
-35%
Aluminium Boron Copper Battery Anode Lithium Nickel
Graphite
2022 2025
Surplus/Deficit (ktonnes)
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Source: Credit Suisse - Super Materials Demand Model; CS commodities
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CSPG, Anode production ex China… unlikely without partnerships
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-
China is overwhelmingly the dominant producer.
-
Current anode production estimated at 700,000 tonnes of which China represents approximately 610,000 tonnes.
-
New capacity under construction will
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QGL EV market takeaways… tread carefully downstream,
choose partners wisely
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-
Anode market (and natural flake) is moving to structural deficit within the next 30 months
-
China remains the overwhelming producer of tier 1 and tier 2 quality anode material
-
China’s development of additional capacity ensures it remains the dominant producer of anode
-
Natural flake set to dominate anode raw material - emerging technologies ex China directed at alternatives to hydrofluoric acid treatment
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-
Ex China strategy remains critical to exploiting flake graphite demand growth.
-
Manufacture of CSPG (or anode!) by natural flake producers
-
Development of key supply relationships with ex-China OEMs
-
Development of downstream partnerships with alternative technology owners
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17
THE GRAPHITE MARKET MEETS THE ELECTRICITY MARKET - QGL’S ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM
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Crisis, transition, winners and losers...
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OPINION ENERGY
Why it’s hard to join the dots in Australia’s energy puzzle
Jennifer Hewett Jun 20, 2022
Anthony Albanese and the Energy Security Board are determined to get the states’ agreement on a capacity mechanism to provide backup power. But that requires allowing Victoria to exclude coal and gas from any payment.
Germany’s decision to pass emergency laws to reopen mothballed coal mines is “bitter but essential”, according to its economic minister, Robert Habeck.
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That Habeck is a member of the Green Party in coalition with the Social Democrats demonstrates the political contortions in a global energy transformation suddenly desperately short of fossil fuels.
Even Australia’s recent energy woes are only a mild version of the trauma threatening to cripple the German economy as Vladimir Putin further reduces supplies of Russian gas to a needy Europe. The price of Angela Merkel’s deadline for shutting Germany’s nuclear power and coal generation to rely on Russian gas and renewables is now stark.
The Albanese government is determined to avoid imposing such direct costs on Australian consumers and businesses despite supporting a much faster shift to more renewable energy as part of its 2030 emissions reduction target.
That balancing act is more difficult at a time of soaring global prices for coal and gas, and with no relief likely this year.
But as the past few weeks have proven, the practicalities of Australia’s national energy transition and timetable are more complicated than suggested by the embrace of renewables. Energy security has become a much more important focus of public debate.
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The puzzle of an emissions free grid… summing up the challenges
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-
Current renewables generation numbers
-
20% of NEM load
-
35% of generation capacity
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BUT
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-
2.4 million solar PV systems delivering 10.7GW
-
Coal fired generators provide >40% of the NEM’s base load and substantially all its inertia.
BUT
- Most of these facilities are scheduled to close within the next 7-15 years and solutions to replace the loss of inertia and dispatchability remain illusive.
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The Solution… long duration storage and the magic of time shifting
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- Practically this is how long duration storage works
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expensive peak energy
free solar energy
cheap off peak energy
24:00 6:00 12:00 18:00 23:00
Time
Power (kW)
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The Solution... the grid and long duration energy storage (LDES)
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1 2 3
Charging Mode: Standby Mode: Dispatch Mode:
Collect and Ready to Generate Generation of
Convert Energy Electrical Energy Electricity
Electrical energy from Fully charged TES cells Heat energy is drawn
wind, solar and offpeak store heat at ultra-high from the TES cells and
fossil fuel generation is temperatures and delivered to thermal
drawn by Sunlands Co. immediately available to power plants to generate
TES cells to heat the cells deliver heat on call to a dispatchable
QSP storage media. conventional thermal power electricity to the grid
plant, i.e., steam turbine network for distribution
generator. to customers.
The Sunlands Co.
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LDES supply chain... complete Australian solution
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Silver Fir undertakes trading and commodity management services within the Chimaera Financial Group. It is responsible for the management of the flake products inventory including certification of all products and meeting the delivery schedules established by the Quantum Sunlands Partnership.
Sunlands Power Systems is responsible for the deployment and integration of TES cells within existing coal fired power plants or the complete greenfields installation of TES Generations Systems (i.e., TES cells and the thermal power plant).
Quantum Graphite Limited
Silver Fir
Quantum Sunlands Partnership
Sunlands Power Systems
Direct Deployment of LDES
Quantum Graphite Limited is the ASX listed owner and operator of the century old Uley natural flake graphite mine. It is a specialist producer of high purity flake graphite products.
The Quantum Sunlands Partnership is the manufacturer of the Uley Media. This is the heat storage media installed within TES cells and represents the single critical component in the manufacture of TES cells. The Quantum Sunlands Partnership holds the exclusive global licence to manufacture Uley Media.
Sunlands Power Systems and key partners from government and the private sector targeting the direct displacement of coal through the retro fitting of existing coal fired power stations with Sunlands Co.’s TES cells.
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Long Duration Energy Storage... size of the market is getting bigger
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-
IRENA estimates the market to grow 20x within the decade
-
Following Glasgow (COP 26) ~~and~~ Sharm El-Sheikh (COP 27) this estimated growth has increased significantly
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Figure 3: Installed TES capacity projections according to IRENA’s Paris Agreement-aligned
Transforming Energy Scenario
900
QGL Sunlands Co.
800
JV Potential Market
700
600
>600 GWh
500
Current Installed Capacity
400
<30 GWh
300
200
100
0
2019 2030
Power Heating Space cooling
Note: Heating projections are not in the scope of this analysis due to a lack of data on aquifers and small-scale
distributed TES (e.g. residential water tanks). Nonetheless, growth in the installed capacity of these technologies is
expected given their versatile use from short to seasonal scale.
GWh
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Copyright © IRENA 2020. IRENA Innovation Outlook Thermal Energy Storage 2020
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Quantum Sunlands Partnership… economics
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- The Quantum Sunlands Partnership (QSP) is the exclusive manufacturer of the natural flake thermal storage media required by Sunlands Co.’s energy storage cells
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- QGL - QSP transfer price assumptions based on sale of natural flake at the basket price of US$919 and sale of manufactured media at a price of US$3,500 to US$4,000 which represents the range of market pricing for similar media
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The Technology… unique capability, ticks all boxes
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-
LDES delivers dispatchable generation, maintains grid stability and enables the acceleration of renewables penetration within the grid
-
QGL joint venture partner Sunlands Co.’s LDES technology uniquely positions it as a leading technology:
-
capable of driving utility scale steam turbines (eg. retrofitting of coal fired power stations)
-
has an effective life measured in the decades
-
can be char ~~g~~ ed and discharged simultaneously
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Charge
Discharge
0h 3h 6h 9h 12h 15h 18h 21h 24h
Imported energy from grid Self consumed energy from solar
Surplus energy exported to grid Energy shift using battery storage
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26
NEXT STEPS
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Where to from here…
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-
Complete financing of Uley 2 including funding options for near term mine expansion
-
Upgrade feasibility to encompass Phase 2 production expansion
-
Ongoing resource definition and increase in reserves
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-
Complete TU Freiburg test work
-
Undertake feasibility for the construction of media storage facility
-
Construct energy storage cell pilot
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28
QUESTIONS…
QUANTUM GRAPHITE
Disclaimer
This presentation includes certain statements that may be deemed forward-looking statements. All statements ln these presentation materials (other than statements of historical facts) which address future production, reserve potential, exploration activities and events or developments that the Company expects, are forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking statements may include, without limitation: (i) estimates of future graphite prices, supply, demand and/or production; (ii) estimates of future cash costs; (iii) estimates of future capital expenditures; (iv) estimates regarding timing of future development, construction, production or closure activities; (v) statements regarding future exploration results; (vi) statements regarding cost structure, project economics, or competitive position, and; (vii) statements comparing the Company’s properties to other mines, projects or metals.
Although the Company believes that such forward-looking statements are based on reasonable assumptions, such statements are not guarantees of future performance and actual results or developments may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in forward-looking statements include market prices, exploitation and exploration successes, continued availability of capital and financing, and general economic, market or business conditions. Investors are cautioned that any such statements are not guarantees of future performance, that the Company expressly disclaims any responsibility for revising or expanding the forward looking statements to reflect actual results or developments, and that actual results or developments may differ materially from those projected, in the forward looking statements.
This presentation does not constitute a recommendation regarding the securities of the Company, and should not be construed as legal or financial advice. It has been prepared for information purposes only and contains general summary information and does not take into account the circumstances of any Individual investor. Prospective investors in the Company are encouraged to obtain separate and independent advice with regard to any investment in the Company. By accepting the presentation materials, the recipient agrees to keep permanently confidential the information contained herein.
The Company confirms that it is not aware of any new information or data that materially affects the information included in this announcement and that all material assumptions and technical parameters underpinning the estimates in this announcement continue to apply and have not materially changed.
Photographs, maps, charts, diagrams and schematic drawings appearing in this presentation are owned by and have been prepared by or commissioned by the Company, unless otherwise stated. Maps and diagrams used in the presentation are illustrative only and may not be drawn to scale. Unless otherwise stated, all data contained in charts, graphs and tables is based on information available at the date of this presentation. By accepting this presentation, the Recipient agrees to be bound by the foregoing statements.