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Protector Forsikring — Investor Presentation 2021
Mar 9, 2021
3719_iss_2021-03-09_15b3b16e-fe93-44a7-b56a-c021035078c0.pdf
Investor Presentation
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Disclaimer
This presentation and the information contained herein have been prepared by and is the sole responsibility of Protector Forsikring ASA (the "Company"). Such information is being provided to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, retransmitted, further distributed to any other person or published, in whole or in part, for any purpose. Failure to comply with this restriction may constitute a violation of applicable securities laws. The information and opinions presented herein are based on general information gathered at the time of writing and are therefore subject to change without notice. The Company assumes no obligationsto update or correct any of the information set out herein.
These materials may contain statements about future events and expectations that are forward-looking statements. Any statement in these materials that is not a statement of historical fact including, without limitation, those regarding the Company's financial position, business strategy, plans and objectives of management for future operations is a forward-looking statement that involves known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause our actual results, performance or achievements of the Company to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking statements are based on numerous assumptions regarding the Company's present and future business strategies and the environment in which the Company will operate in the future. The Company assumes no obligations to update the forward-looking statements contained herein to reflect actual results, changes in assumptions or changes in factors affecting these statements.
This presentation does not constitute or form part of, and is not prepared or made in connection with, an offer or invitation to sell, or any solicitation of any offer to subscribe for or purchase any securities and nothing contained herein shall form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever. No reliance may be placed for any purposes whatsoever on the information contained in this presentation or on its completeness, accuracy or fairness. The information in this presentation is subject to verification, completion and change. The contents of this presentation have not been independently verified. While the Company relies on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, it does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made or given by or on behalf of the Company or any of its owners, directors, officers or employees or any other person as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information or opinions contained in this presentation. None of the Company, its affiliates or any of their respective advisors or representatives or any other person shall have any liability whatsoever (in negligence or otherwise) for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this presentation or its contents or otherwise arising in connection with the presentation. The Company's securities have not been and will not be registered under the US Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the "US Securities Act"), and are offered and sold only outside the United States in accordance with an exemption from registration provided by Regulation S of the US Securities Act.
This presentation should not form the basis of any investment decision. Investors and prospective investors in securities of any issuer mentioned herein are required to make their own independent investigation and appraisal of the business and financial condition of such company and the nature of the securities. Any decision to purchase securities in the context of a proposed offering of securities, if any, should be made solely on the basis of information contained in any offering documents published in relation to such an offering. For further information about the Company, reference is made public disclosures made by the Company, such as filings made with the Oslo Stock Exchange, periodic reports and other materials available on the Company's web pages.
Capital Markets Day March 10th 2021
Our DNA
Vision
The Challenger
Business Idea
This will happen through unique relationships, best in class decisionmaking and cost effective solutions
Main targets
Cost and quality leadership
Profitable growth
Top 3
Values
Credible
Innovative/Open
Bold
Committed
Capital Markets Day 2021 Virtual Webcast| March 10th | From 10:00
| 10:00 – | Protector – |
|---|---|
| 10:30 | We have only just begun |
| 10:30 – | Nordics – |
| 10:45 | Back on Track |
| 10:45 – | UK – |
| 11:00 | A Disciplined Team Journey |
| 11:00 – | Investments – |
| 11:15 | Core business |
| 11:15 – 11:40 |
Long-term target and shareholder distribution |
| 11:40 – 12:00 |
Summary, Succession and Q&A |
New information released today
SCR-ratio up 19% points, YTD equity return > MNOK 350, 3-year CR 90-92%
- New BNOK 1.9 reinsurance deal on WC Denmark/Norway signed March 9th
- The deal confirm reserve quality
- Protectors SCR-ratio increases with 19%-points, everything else equal
- Very attractive cost of capital
- YTD equity portfolio return > MNOK 350
- Remember, these gains are mainly unrealized and volatility must be expected
- Long-term (3 years) combined ratio target changed from 94% to 90-92%
- New dividend policy decided in the board
- A flexible policy where priority 1 is Insurance growth if possible
- Excess capital (SCR-ratio > 180%) will be distributed to shareholders over time
- Quarterly dividend will be considered (but remember, flexibility comes first)
Reinsurance deal reduces risk and increases SCR-ratio 70% of WC tail in Denmark and Norway sold
- Reserves sized BNOK 1.9 sold to DARAG Germany (70% of reserves transferred)
- Similar to our deal with DARAG on Change of Ownership reserves
- SCR-ratio post dividend increases from 190% to 209%
- Cut off date is end Q3 2020, 70% on all reserves prior to October 1st transferred
- Very limited impact on P&L
- Funds are withheld, meaning Protector do not transfer money to DARAG;
- Except for a pre-defined risk premium (normally between 5-15%)
- Protector pays a certain agreed interest rate on funds withheld (normal procedure)
- It's a "real risk transfer contract", meaning upsides and downsides on reserves are shared 70%/30%
- Cost of capital on this deal is very attractive
Capital Markets Day 2021 Virtual Webcast| March 10th | From 10:00
| 10:00 – | Protector – |
|---|---|
| 10:30 | We have only just begun |
| 10:30 – | Nordics – |
| 10:45 | Back on Track |
| 10:45 – | UK – |
| 11:00 | A Disciplined Team Journey |
| 11:00 – | Investments – |
| 11:15 | Core business |
| 11:15 – 11:40 |
Long-term target and shareholder distribution |
| 11:40 – 12:00 |
Summary, Succession and Q&A |
Claims handling – the moment of truth
Claims handling in Protector Moment of truth
Main targets in Claims Handling:
- High customer quality
- Correct, avoid leakage and follow up on any possibility
- High efficiency (when critical mass is reached)
Resources to deliver on Main Targets:
| Norway | Sweden | Denmark | Finland | PF Nordics | UK | PF Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 34 | 48 | 28 | 14 | 124 | 41 | 165 |
| Claim Handlers | 25 | 34 | 19 | 12 | 90 | 30 | 120 |
| Technisians/supporters | 3 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 7 | 21 |
| Managers incl. controllers | 6 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 20 | 4 | 24 |
Project Falcon 2020 Our way to world leading Claims handling
| Rolls Royce | Cost control through Recovery and Reduction |
|---|---|
| Clean Desk | No delays in Claims handling – without compromising on quality |
| ICF | Instant customer feedback. Customer satisfaction, follow up dissatisfied |
| Pharaoh | Counter fraud within Claims handling, through "Key Fraud Indicators" |
Project Falcon 2020 Our way to world leading claims handling
| Rolls Royce | 14 % improvement |
|---|---|
| Clean Desk | 91% clean. 26.000 of 28.500 working days |
| ICF | 88% satisfied ("Good" or "Very good") |
| Pharaoh | 1% savings, OK result. Higher potential |
Management reporting Control is key
All relevant KPI's available to managers 24/7
- – presented on 1 "page".
- Protector level
- Business Unit level
- Line of business level
- Individual level
Large Loss follow-up tools to ensure perfect control and learning loops
- Registration spreadsheet per claim
- Large Loss quadrant
ClaimHeader ID+C1:C1:F50 912494 Template last updated 23.02.2021 Customer Name Rauma Boliger AS Concern name Rauma kommune Customer ID 441469 Concern segment Original Client evaluation: Green Did UW deliver? Green Did renewal resp. deliver? Green Did RM deliver? Green
Customer info
UW, RM and/or renewal assesment
• Monthly reports, incl. yellow / red flags
Monthly reports –Top Down and Bottom Up
- Protector level
- Business Unit level
- Line of business level
- Individual level
| Reported - Closed - Open 45 658 - 49 927 - 10 572 |
82.1 mill. 8405 stk. $(1396)$ $(1796)$ |
Coming soon | Score 384 Avg. EResponses 94% 3.4 1.244 |
0.0% 0.0m # 0 | $0.0%10.0m$ 1#4 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly Report | Monthly Report - Detail | |||||||||||||
| Ported | $ -$ | Purked V/17th | 710 | VID IV | Arm Africa | ENgineer | STATE | Postal LY | Printed V/174 | $rac{1}{2}$ | VID LY | ALLENTA | ||
| · Reported Closed 1, time Dram claims Open / Reported To Avg. time closed list time RR % of perments ER. amount (mill) 107 To Hanny Hill seved of payments Hill-sevings (mill) Pharach saved of payments Phanady savings (mil) Closed / PTR hotel Closed / FTS allocated Paid (mill) Democratismal Fears |
45 658 49.927 10.572 23% 102 12% 82.1 SFS m D.D. öü. to. 164 Det. 640.8 3.0 |
53,332 52.242 34,809 28% Ŧ. y. 63.3 525 m ïΰ ñ 0.0 220 $-433$ 663.6 3.6 |
154% $-476$ -39% $\overline{1}$ 196 250 32% 'n, m $\sim$ on. $\sim$ on. 266 $-25$ $-1750$ |
$-5.655$ 49.924 10.572 23% 102 12% 83.1 SENS ÷ 0.0 m. 0.0 2.044 3.146 043.5 3.0 |
\$3,219 52.235 14.828 塑料 220 62.3 50% - 0.0 m. D.D 1.292 iest 663.6 3.6 |
10476 $-256$ SONS 111 m $250 -$ $3250 - 325$ 258 ÷ $\sim$ on. $\sim$ $+15$ 256 $-276$ $-0.796$ |
ECHILISANA CF CD. Payments |
# Renoted Closed 1, time Coan claims Open / Reported for Aug. Sing closed bill time. Reported @ net Re-cowned claims # Open claims + Elisar Closed / FTE Total Closed / ETE allocated F19 total FTE allocated |
45,658 49.927 93 \$72 22% 122 496 $\overline{\phantom{a}}$ 574 2364 3.346 22.1 14.9 $-2000$ |
53,332 \$2,242 14 000 28% w 52% ă ïй 3400 $-222$ 15.3 |
$-2476$ $-15$ $-29%$ 45a m a. on $-229$ $\rightarrow$ $-256$ $-116$ $-264$ |
gt ent 49.924 \$3,572 22% 112 a. $\overline{\phantom{a}}$ $\sim$ 166 2246 22.1 58.5 |
53.329 62.238 54 909 2816 w 53% 7% эä 1166 2.400 22.3 16.3 |
$-2476$ $\sim$ 17% 456 ĸ ×. on. $45\%$ $\sim$ $-256$ $-2$ $\overline{\phantom{a}}$ |
| Coverage | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coverage position: | Certain | EML: | |||||
| Broker | |||||||
| Company | Aon Norway AS | Broker Name | Bjørg Bersvendsen | ||||
| Claims handler | |||||||
| Current claims handler Fredrik Messel | Decision maker | Fredrik Messel | |||||
| Previous claims handler None | Decision maker, role Large claim meeting | ||||||
| External loss adjuster | No | Name, external loss adj. | |||||
| Claim info | |||||||
| Claim type | Brann | Claim cause | Brann | ||||
| Damage date | 2020-10-01 | Customer behaviour Green | |||||
| Reported date | 2020-10-01 | Reported to Pharaoh? No | |||||
| Claim size | 20 MNOK | Claim size last updated 20201204 | |||||
| Claim size, documented Yes | Claim size, doc. date 08.10.2020 | ||||||
| 1st time reservation 20,00 | Current Incurred 20,00 | ||||||
| Current reserve | 18,00 | Current RR-assesment | |||||
| Worst case reserve | 25,00 | Best case reserve: 16,00 | |||||
| Brief comments: | Inventory 0,7 mkr | Large loss, 1/3 with minor damages, reserve 14 mkr on building, VAT 3,5 mkr , Loss of rent 1,8 mkr, | |||||
| Follow up structure | |||||||
| Involved parties: | Ease-it Help AS | Right people onboard? 5 | |||||
| Plan for claims handling Yes | Quality on plan: | 3 | |||||
| Activities: | Plan for reinstatement Mthl eval. by Dec.Maker Green | ||||||
| Technical reports, restoration quotes etc. | |||||||
| Report 1 | |||||||
| Company | Ease It Help AS | Appraiser | Lars A Borgen | ||||
| Requested by | Internal | Report type | Quote | ||||
| Order date | 01.10.2020 | Delivered date | 08.10.2020 | ||||
| Level of cost in report 19500000 | Level, choosen Report 19500000 | ||||||
| Cost of Report | Quality of Report Green | ||||||
| Counterpartys report | |||||||
| Company | Appraiser | ||||||
| Level of cost in report | Level, choosen Report | ||||||
| Rolls Royce | |||||||
| Total | 0,0 | Recovery | 0,0 | ||||
| Hardway | 0,0 | Pharaoh | 0,0 | ||||
| Payments | |||||||
| Total | 0,0 | Compensation | 0,0 | ||||
| Consultants | 0,0 | Others | 0,0 | ||||
| UW Learning Loop | |||||||
| UW LL | Yes | Reported to UW No | |||||
| Policy Quality | Green | Microscope | |||||
| Final evaluation of the Claims handling | |||||||
| Data Quality | Time spent | ||||||
| Quality | Innovative | ||||||
| LAGAN | ppen | LIU-LU | ||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month | Quarter | YTD | Mthly evaluation (#) | Month | Quarter | YTD | ||||||||||||||||
| A Inc. | A Inc. all | п | $\Delta$ Inc. | A Inc. all. |
A Inc. | A Inc. all | Inc | Paid | Resv. | AResy | # RedF | N/A | Inc. | In c. | Inc. | |||||||
| Property | 5,1 | $\circ$ | 5.1 | 4,0 | 253.6 | 253,6 | 253,6 | |||||||||||||||
| Motor | 0.0 | 0,3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | $\Omega$ | 0.0 | 0.3 | $-0.2$ | ol | 0 | 3.6 | 3,6 | 3.6 | ||||||||
| Liability | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0 | 0,0 | 0.0 | $\Omega$ | 0,0 | 0,0 | $-0,1$ | ٥l | 0,0 | o | 0,0 | $^{\circ}$ | 0,0 | |||||||
| $\leq$ WC | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | $\theta$ | 0,0 | 0,0 | 19.8 | 0,0 | ol | 0. | 0 | 0,0 | $\Omega$ | 0,0 | $\theta$ | 0.0 | ||||
| Group life | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | $\circ$ | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | ol | 0 | Ο | 0,0 | $^{\circ}$ | 0,0 | $^{\circ}$ | 0.0 | ||||
| Other | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | $\circ$ | 0.0 | 0.0 | - 45 | 6. | 0.0 | ΩÎ | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | $\theta$ | 0.0 | |||||
| TOTAL | 3,7 | 5,4 | 3,7 | 5,4 | $\Omega$ | 3,7 | 5.4 | 132.6 | 257,2 | 257,2 | 257,2 |
| Claims KPIs | PROTECTOR | HE insurance | |||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very good RR, efficiency appears good but | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Total | Motor | Preperty | Lishifty | Personal | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Claims KPIs | Oct-20 Targ. | Targ. | Oct-20 | Park, 96 | Dct-20 | Tang. | $O(1-1)$ | Tare. | Oct-19 YID 20 1617 | ||||||||||||||||
| I renoving itains | 1131 | 483 | 9767 | 10,845 | 562 | 612 | 751 | \$197 | 5.468 | 1 225 | 1176 | 58 | 52 | $\overline{K}$ | 491 | 627 | 345 | 404 | 534 | 2.854 | 1,380 | ||||
| dosed claims (1st time) | 1014 | 1.181 | (463) | 10571 | 10,200 | 534 | 720 | 5.792 | 9.221 | 112 | 153 | 124 | 1 1 1 1 | 037 | 45 | śά | 660 | 580 | 303 | 150 | 520 | 3,008 | 3 3 5 2 | ||
| Coon claims | 4 150 | 5 165 | 4 1 5 0 | 5.050 | 1815 | 500 | 2.56 | 1815 | 2.500 | 517 | 517 | 400 | 391 | 550 | 616 | 391 | sse | 1.427 | 1518 | 1.477 | 1,600 | ||||
| Doen / reported (%) | 367% | 5705 | 349% | 42% | 47% | 323% | 573% | \$415 | 35% | 46% | 311% | 501% | 414% | 42% | 343 | 674% | BRON | 242% | 80% | \$25 | 414% | 2845 | sos. | 45% | |
| Prig. time closed 1st time | 106 | 105 | 121 | 46 | 100 | 105 | 109 | 157 | 117 | 218 | 224 | 223 | 98 | 132 | $-0.544$ | ||||||||||
| JeanDesk (%) | 81% | 95% | 96% | 79% | 95% | 99% | 95% | 90% | GRYS | 95% | 99% | \$5% | 925 | 94% | 95% | 95% | 95% | EFS | 94% | \$5% | 66% | 95% | 97% | 65% | 95% |
| FTE's total | 29.1 | 26.7 | 27.5 | 29.3 | 267 | 6.0 | $60 - 60$ | 75 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 47 | 45 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 4,5 | 3.1 | Đ | 29 | 3.2 | 27 | 15.4 | 13.6 | 22.4 | 15.5 | 13.6 |
| Dosed / FTE_total | 34.8 | 27.8 | 53.2 | 360.4 | 395.9 | 86.4 | ٢R | 96 | 924.5 | 869 | 28.1 | 23.6 | 27 | 251.4 | 246. | 21.3 | 16.6 | 206. | 244.4 | 19.7 | 16.6 | 41.9 | 194.4 | 221.2 | |
| Bill 16 of payments | 18% | 13 2 | 15% | 19% | 13% | BN | 9% | 12% | 13% | 48% | 22% | 182 | 83% | 12% | 46% | 32% | 11% | on. | 2.975 | 13h | |||||
| SR amount Imilions | 13.71 | 9.80 | 15.75 | 145.70 | 101.48 | 232 | 2.71 | 33.35 | 27.74 | 3.52 | 12.39 | 41.87 | 34,28 | 16.86 | 2.83 | 3.27 | 53.62 | 35.89 | |||||||
| CT - Totality (score 3 & 4) | tom: | 92% | 84% | 91% | 02% | 100% | ops | ARTS | 93% | aps | 89% | \$6% | 92% | 100% | son | 50% | ons | 90% | 100% | ages | \$25 | gers. | 92% | ||
| KAnswered | 25 | 18 | 319 | 15 | 16 | 195 | 56 | 35 | 11 | 11 | |||||||||||||||
| Paid lamounti | 75.18 | 104,52 | 780.60 | 28.01 | 31.50 | 277.38 | 19.58 | 25.70 | 190.45 | 2.59 | 4.25 | M.65 | 25.18 | 45.07 276.11 | |||||||||||
| that for a strong who a finite standard | 3.44 | or due | NAMES | Building | A Act 1 | Building | $-10$ | $-0.001$ | A few street | COLLEGE | $-2.04$ | But they | $-$ | plant of a money |
| #nye | #avsluttet | #åpne | RR % | CD | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Navn | Jan YTD Jan Target YTD Endr # # + 1Y Jan Target YTD Jan YTD Leders kommentar | ||||||||
| Name 1 | 163 163 118 105 124 | 415 6 10,5 % 9,9 % 10,5 % 76 % 76 % … | |||||||
| Name 2 | 160 160 112 125 112 | 454 31 9,9 % 9,9 % 9,9 % 100 % 100 % … | |||||||
| Name 3 | 169 169 121 125 121 | 458 17 12,4 % 9,9 % 12,4 % 95 % 95 % … | |||||||
| Name 4 | 20 20 94 88 94 | 167 10 9,7 % 9,9 % 9,7 % 95 % 95 % … |
Project Falcon 2021 IQ Falcon
Our DNA
Vision
The Challenger
Business Idea
This will happen through unique relationships, best in class decisionmaking and cost effective solutions
Main targets
Cost and quality leadership
Profitable growth
Top 3
Values
Credible
Innovative/Open
Bold
Committed
Value creation in the long run We have only just begun
- Cost leader in the world not good enough
- Quality leader in Scandinavia & UK
- Average CR last 10 years at 91.6 %
- Price increases still higher than claims inflation entering 2021, churn back to normal in Nordics
- Growing organically from 0 to > 5.5 BNOK in premiums; building a significant float
- UW discipline and Claims Handling are moments of truth
- Investment is core and delivers better than benchmark HTD
- It's also a story of capital consumption and risk
- HTD ROE at 19%
- HTD CAGR share price at 27%
Cost Leadership – World leader, but…
• Define strategy, design value chains and implement
Not good enough – new target 2023
- In-house IT with cost ratio of ≈ 1% vs 3.2% for industry (Gartner Inc.)
- The real cost "secret" is a mix of culture and IT
- Increased cost 2019-2020
- Investing in UK
- Increased client churn in the Nordics
- Portfolio clean-up consume resources
Gross expense ratio
| 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Protector Nordics (ex. COI) | 6.4 % | 7.3 % | 6.0 % | 7.3 % | 7.6 % | 7.7 % | 9.6 % |
| Tryg Corporate |
11.1 % | 10.8 % | 11.0 % | 10.2 % | 9.9 % | 10.4 % | 11.4 % |
| If Industrial2 | 16.1 % | 17.3 % | 17.6 % | 17.1 % | 16.0 % | 14.6 % | na |
1 Gross cost incl. claims handling ex. broker commission costs w. normalized LBP
2 Cost ratio excl. annual avg. claims handling cost for If
Quality leader in Scandinavia and UK Humble and proud
17
Profitability challenged 2020 - A turning point, CR 2021 expected at 90-92%
Profitable 9 out the 10 last years Profitability improvements
- Some challenges entering 2018
- Poor UW discipline in Norway & Finland
- Claims inflation motor higher than expected
-
Grenfell Tower and Grey Silverfish
-
Significant Nordic price increases
- Stronger UW discipline in some markets/segments
- Margin management and Capital allocation
- Exit COI market in Norway
18
Net Combined Ratio 2011-2021
Volume growth 17 % GWP CAGR last 5 years, 10% growth expected for 2021
Protector Nordic vs. Peers
Growing to a nr. 3 position in the market
- Protector vs. If Industrial and Tryg Corporate
- Same product mix
- Same broker based sales channel
- Same commission structure
- Same average size of clients
- Profitable Nordic market
- However with significant rate pressure 2013-2017
- Prices started to increase in 2018 and have continued in 2019-2021
- Protector with a competitive Combined ratio
- Despite growing fast
- Despite expansion across borders
- Due to our cost advantage
Top 3 in any segment we enter Brokered Insurance Nordics & Public sector UK
Nr. 1 Motor fleet Nordic Nordic bus market Many others
P&C Nordic Nordic municipalities Public sector UK
Product mix development1 – towards short tail
Reduced risk profile and reduced capital consumption
- Short tail from 34% in 2008 to 80% in 2021
- Long tail attractiveness decreasing as risk free interest rate decline or disappear.
- Geographical diversification increased; four countries at critical mass
- Motor increasing from 9% in 2008 to 35% in 2021
- Avg. capital consumption per GWP in current portfolio at 31%, versus 45% in 2014
Capital consumption going down quickly Increased ROE and shareholder distribution
How did it happen?
Our DNA
Vision
The Challenger
Business Idea
This will happen through unique relationships, best in class decisionmaking and cost effective solutions
Main targets
Culture eats strategy for breakfast!
Cost and quality leadership
Profitable growth
Top 3
Values
Credible
Innovative/Open
Bold
Committed
It's our DNA - We are The Challenger
The real secret Know, understand and live our DNA – every day
Never ever compromise on our DNA (TIME)
Values embedded in our every day work
Value creation in the long run We have only just begun
- Cost leader in the world not good enough
- Quality leader in Scandinavia & UK
- Average CR last 10 years at 91.6 %
- Price increases still higher than claims inflation entering 2021, churn back to normal in Nordics
- Growing organically from 0 to > 5.5 BNOK in premiums; building a significant float
- UW discipline and Claims Handling are moments of truth
- Investment is core and delivers better than benchmark
- It's also a story of capital consumption and risk
- HTD ROE at 19%
- HTD CAGR share price at 27%
Capital Markets Day 2021 Virtual Webcast| March 10th | From 10:00
| 10:00 – | Protector – |
|---|---|
| 10:30 | We have only just begun |
| 10:30 – | Nordics – |
| 10:45 | Back on track |
| 10:45 – | UK – |
| 11:00 | A Disciplined Team Journey |
| 11:00 – | Investments – |
| 11:15 | Core business |
| 11:15 – 11:40 |
Long-term target and shareholder distribution |
| 11:40 – 12:00 |
Summary, Succession and Q&A |
Executive summary Nordics – Back on track
• Profitability entering 2021 Turn-around completed
- Cost efficiency measures Cost ratio down 1.5%-points in 2022
-
Quality towards market Measured monthly through "Broker Instant Feedback".
-
Nordic profitability outlook 2021 Combined ratio < 90%
-
Price increases in 2021 4-5%-points higher than claims inflation
- Underwriting discipline Further de-risking, but now on a moderate level
- Growth opportunities in the Nordics Maintain discipline, low single digit 2021 Protector
«We are different»
Our DNA
«Olemme erilaisia»
Vision
The Challenger
Business Idea
This will happen through unique relationships, best in class decisionmaking and cost effective solutions
Main targets
Cost and quality leadership
«Vi er annerledes»
Profitable growth
Top 3
Values
Credible
Innovative/Open
Bold
Committed
«Vi är annorlunda»
«Vi er anderledes»
Cost Leadership Turn trend around in the Nordics
Creating cost leadership Cost the real way1
- Define strategy, design value chains and implement .
- High premium volume per employee when critical mass is reached.
- Low overhead Managers are operational.
- In-house IT with Cost ratio of ≈ 1%, vs 3.2% for industry (Gartner Inc.)
Gross expense ratio
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | Avg. '13- '20 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Protector Nordics (ex. COI) | 7,5 % | 6,4 % | 7,3 % | 6,0 % | 7,3 % | 7,6 % | 7,7 % | 9,6 % | 7,6 % |
| Tryg Corporate |
11,8 % | 11,1 % | 10,8 % | 11,0 % | 10,2 % | 9,9 % | 10,4 % | 11,4 % | 10,8 % |
| If Industrial | 16,1 % | 16,1 % | 17,3 % | 17,6 % | 17.1 % | 16.0 % | 14,6 % | na | 16,3 % |
1 Gross cost incl. claims handling ex. broker commission cost w. normalized bonus scheme.
Quality leader in Scandinavia Elements of dissatisfaction following price increases
Claims results deteriorated
2021 – Profitability turn around completed
- Average Return on Equity previous 10 years at 18%.
- Underlying realities worse in 2014-2016 and better 2018-2020.
- Denmark very poor claims results in 2020 driven by early years.
Gradually worsening Profitability improvements
- ROE focus makes long-tail less attractive.
- Significant Nordic price increases.
- Stronger UW discipline in some markets/segments
33
Net Combined Ratio
Volume growth 12.5 % CAGR 2016-2020, single digit going forward
Cost efficiency Right-sizing to strengthen cost leadership.
| Cost the real way | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 5.7% |
| SE | 8.7% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.5% |
| DK | 9.1% | 9.3% | 11.0% | 8.6% | 7.5% |
| FI | 13.1% | 11.1% | 9.3% | 11.5% | 9.4% |
| Nordics | 7.9% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 6.6% |
- Manning has increased while growth halted.
- Efficiency has not been prioritized during 2018-2020.
- Price increases and #policy decreases support efficiency.
- 2%-points improvement from 2020-2022 is possible.
- "Low hanging fruit" has been taken.
- Further right-sizing based on 2021-2022 volume.
Quality Leadership Broker Instant Feedback supports quality control.
- Monthly pulse to all brokers based on activity level.
- SMS for easy access and response, scale 1-4.
- Immediate follow-up of all "1" very unhappy.
- Individual follow-up on broker satisfaction too learn and train.
| Svar totalt | 17 |
|---|---|
| Medelvärde | 0.00 |
| Standardawikelse | 0.00 |
| $\overline{4}$ $\vert \bm{A} \vert$ |
12 (71%) |
| 3 В. |
3 (18%) |
| $2^2$ | 1(6%) |
| $\overline{1}$ 1 |
0(0% |
Initial feedback is very good.
Price increases Will improve profitability 4-5% in 2021
| 2020 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|
| Very low churn on P&C. High churn on Workers Comp. |
≈ 14.5% | Slightly less than 2020 |
| Very large variation on products and segments. Motor much lower. Real estate average +40%. |
≈ 13.0% | Less than 2020 in total. Larger variation. |
| Very high churn driven by Workers Comp. Deliberate due to capital consumption. |
≈ 11.9% | Slightly less than 2020 |
| Very low churn on all products. | ≈ 21.7% | Less than 2020 |
| Low churn. Majority unprofitable. | ≈ 13.7% | 8.7% in January Higher going forward. |
• Average claims inflation (all products) 3-4 % in the Nordics, higher on Motor and Real Estate
Portfolio Quality Further de-risking on a moderate level.
| Microscoping | #Contracts to renewal |
#Microscoped | #Deviations found |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO | 5 102 | 3 925 | 1 895 |
| SE | 648 | 648 | 1 950 |
| DK | 423 | 340 | 184 |
| FI | 75 | 75 | 77 |
| Protector | 6 248 | 4 988 | 4 106 |
38
- 80% of contract controlled for deviations.
- All large exposures covered.
-
4106 deviations clarified before renewal.
- Exposures controlled and pricing risk adjusted where relevant.
- Policy data improved.
- IT's highest priority is to improve data structure.
Market position Market share at 12% – opportunities in Public Housing and Motor
- Public sector is dominated by 2-3 insurers in each market.
- Mutual insurers are much more represented in all markets.
-
Cost efficiency is critical to succeed.
-
Commercial and Affinity is dominated by 3-4 local insurers.
- International subsidiaries are focusing on niches.
- Cost and quality is key for profitable growth.
39
Public Sector Consistent risk selection comes first, growth is secondary
WIN-rate
- One UW all lines, Director or Chief UW in all processes
-
400 factors per UW-case simple overview
- Approximately 500 000 claims in our database
15 years on consistent approach to risk selection Consistently beating the market on large loss frequency
- Loyal to methodology no «red» risk written.
- Portfolio development and avoiding large losses.
Executive summary Nordics – Back on Track
• Profitability entering 2021 Turn-around completed
- Cost efficiency measures Cost ratio down 1.5%-points in 2022
-
Quality towards market Measured monthly through "Broker Instant Feedback".
-
Nordic profitability outlook 2021 Combined ratio < 90%
-
Price increases in 2021 4-5%-points higher than claims inflation
- Underwriting discipline Further de-risking, but now on a moderate level
41
• Growth opportunities in the Nordics Maintain discipline, low single digit 2021 Protector
Capital Markets Day 2021 Virtual Webcast| March 10th | From 10:00
| 10:00 – | Protector – |
|---|---|
| 10:30 | We have only just begun |
| 10:30 – | Nordics – |
| 10:45 | Back on Track |
| 10:45 – | UK – |
| 11:00 | A Disciplined Team Journey |
| 11:00 – | Investments – |
| 11:15 | Core business |
| 11:15 – 11:40 |
Long-term target and shareholder distribution |
| 11:40 – 12:00 |
Summary, Succession and Q&A |
Our DNA
Vision
The Challenger
Business Idea
This will happen through unique relationships, best in class decisionmaking and cost effective solutions
Main targets
Cost and quality leadership
Profitable growth
Top 3
Values
Credible
Innovative/Open
Bold
Committed
UK Summary 2016-2020 A disciplined Team Journey has just begun
- £10bn market in scope, £3bn market in focus, many years of growth ahead
- Three segments
- Public UW & cost advantage # 3 today • Housing: UW & cost advantage # 3 today
- Profitable in 2019 and 2020
- Profitable in year 4 and 5 (like in Sweden)
- Some luck on large losses
- Good underlying profitability
- Improved Reinsurance terms
- Culture is key
- Quality leader
- Up-front investment in people for future
Lessons learned from entering Sweden and Denmark Making mistakes is ok – if they are shared and not repeated
45
Our Segments and brokers Selected Brokers, search for Competitive Edge, do it well
Home Market
Cost advantage key (low deductibles)
46
Risk managed clients Property & Motor largest LOBs
Public Sector & Housing Association
Top 3, disciplined UW, risk selection & cost advantage
UW Excellence
Home Market
Cost advantage key
(low deductibles)
47
• Market leader with > 50 % share
- Clients selection through consistent UW methodology
- One UW, all products
- Focused RM approach
Commercial Sector Large Clients, focused distribution, Risk Management focus
Commercial Sector
Large clients (£250k avg.) Risk managed clients Property & Motor largest LOBs
- Core Products Property, Casualty & Motor
- Gradually expanding distribution
- Wide risk appetite Narrow customer focus
- Strong analytical bias
- Major customer proposition
- Embedded Risk Management approach
Disciplined growth in a large market 61% avg. annual growth since 2017 with lots more potential
The UK Market £10bn+ – Growing despite Brexit & Covid 19
The UK Market Huge opportunity, targeted focus – Underwrite the client
| • In scope UK Market |
GWP £10 bn + | |
|---|---|---|
| • In Focus • Whereof Commercial • Whereof Public |
GWP £2.9bn + GWP £2.0bn + GWP £0.9bn + |
|
- Competitive landscape: 15-20 providers (reducing)
- Top 5 50 %
- 6-10 25 %
- 11-15 10 %
- The rest 10 %
| Current Risk Appetite |
High | Medium | Low |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manufacturing Retail & Wholesale Public Administration |
Real Estate Specialist Areas |
Financial Institutions / Professional Services |
|
| High | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0 |
| Medium | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Low | 1.9 | 0.9 | 4.3 |
| Total | 3.9 | 1.8 | 4.3 |
| Protector's current viewpoint |
Core appetite Focus: Property, Casualty, Motor |
High distribution costs Products outside of scope |
Products outside of scope PI – Largest exposure |
UK 'One Team' Development Prepared for the future, committed to the culture and curious
| Action | What is it? | Comment | Focus / Project |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cultural onboarding | UK Journey / BU's Overview |
Remote presentation for new starters |
Cultural Lead |
| TIME champion | Living the values nominations |
One Team meeting. Included in Q2 lockdown |
Cultural Lead |
| Deep work | 6hrs per week to do complex work. |
No distractions | Cultural Lead |
| Monthly Wellbeing chats |
Support bubbles/groups |
Utilise existing buddy systems |
RTO project |
| Monthly team meetings |
Business updates and recognition & reward |
Last Friday of the month. End on a social theme |
RTO project |
| One Team break | Daily 15 min slot with a champion owner |
Cross team social chat | RTO project |
| Embedded | |||
| Lockdown initiative |
- Protector Cultural Lead 2019 & 2020
- 80+ employees (33 on-boarded in 2020)
- Seamless transition to WFH
- Advancing training & Development through internal & external programs
- Two locations One team culturally embedded
Broker Satisfaction Perception is reality, strong results in 2020, never compromise on quality
53
BSI UK 2020 - Totality
UK Summary 2016-2020 A disciplined Team Journey has just begun
- £10bn market in scope, £3bn market in focus, many years of growth ahead
- Three segments
-
Public UW & cost advantage # 3 today • Housing: UW & cost advantage # 3 today
-
Profitable in 2019 and 2020
- Profitable in year 4 and 5 (like in Sweden)
- Some luck on large losses
- Good underlying profitability
- Improved Reinsurance terms 2021
- Culture is key
- Quality leader
- Up-front investment in people for future
Capital Markets Day 2021 Virtual Webcast| March 10th | From 10:00
| 10:00 – | Protector – |
|---|---|
| 10:30 | We have only just begun |
| 10:30 – | Nordics – |
| 10:45 | Back on Track |
| 10:45 – | UK – |
| 11:00 | A Disciplined Team Journey |
| 11:00 – | Investments – |
| 11:15 | Core business |
| 11:15 – 11:40 |
Long-term target and shareholder distribution |
Investment is core CAGR AUM last 5 years of 15.2%
- Equity share between 8.9 and 25.1% historically
- Direct equity investments under consideration
- High Yield (HY) share between 15% and 34% historically
- Equity and HY share will vary according to assessed attractiveness > 20% RoE
- Capital consumption differ substantially between asset classes
10.1%
10 925
9 535
9 373
8 975
13.5%
13 492
Protector's financial underwriting method
Overall investment hurdle rate at 20% company RoE
Protector's analysis process
- Portfolio allocation based on risk/reward considerations/ high hurdle rate (min. 20% RoE)
- Stress test to ensure that we withstand any financial crisis
- Thorough bottom-up analysis, the cornerstone of our investment approach
- Watchlist includes light follow-up on all Nordic high-yield bonds, and many European small/mid-cap equities
- Continuous process improvements
57
| Bottom-up | analysis | FUW | Difficulty & expertise | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Investment strategy – equities Focus on level of difficulty and risk/ reward
Equity portfolio statistics Good performance since inception in 2014
- Equity share of total portfolio varies depending on available investment opportunities reaching hurdle
- Discount to estimated intrinsic value 26% at YE20
- Concentrated portfolio where top 5 positions will normally be 30-50% of total
- No travel-, oil- or oil service companies
Equity portfolio - top 10 holdings 5 are new from CMD in 2018
Top 10 holdings per 02.03.2021 1. Multiconsult, 4.043.344 shares 2. Elanders, 2.150.520 shares 3. Jyske Bank, 757.645 shares, new 2019 4. BankNordik, 1.060.644 shares, new 2019 5. eWork, 1.720.499 shares 6. Columbus, 5.132.389 shares, new 2020 7. B3, 2.008.022 shares 8. Origin, 2.000.000 shares, new 2020 9. Projektengagemang, 3.159.489 shares, new 2020 10.Bank Norwegian, 500.000 shares
- YTD return > MNOK 350
- Remember that these are mostly unrealized gains, volatility must be expected
- Equity share (of total portfolio) will vary
Investment strategy – Bonds
Invest in riskier assets if RoE > 20%. Higher risk requires higher margin of safety
Analysis/Underwriting strategy
Focus areas
Return evaluations
- Bottom-up analysis (underwriting) and quarterly follow up
- Bond market often slow to react to deteriorating fundamentals
- Continuous development of process
- Absolute attractiveness of individual risk, e.g.
- Terms
- Redundancy, low Loss Given Default
- Always ensure large margin of safety to intrinsic enterprise value
- Willingness to
- Sit on the sideline; because of this our expectation is often to show lower returns in good times
- Act aggressively structurally advantaged to take opportunity of periods of fund outflows
- Selective ≈ 5% of new deals
- Capital consumption & return on risk capital
- Company capital allocation alternatives evaluated
- Hurdle rate for investment = company ROE target >20%
- Liquidity / ability to change our mind
Bond portfolio statistics
Immaterial losses the last 5 years. Higher risk in 2020 and start of 2021
- Low losses, -0.11% or less, every year since insourcing in 2015
- Higher risk in 2020 than avg. last 5 years with losses of -12m or -0.11%
- A year with higher volatility and higher losses for the general market
- "Normalized" annual loss expectation through cycle, -0.2% to -0.5%
- Expect losses to be "chunky" with low losses in most years
- Actual losses of course dependent on risk taking
- Avg. A- rated portfolio and risk up compared to pre-Covid
- High-yield portfolio of NOK 4bn
- Running yield at 2.3%, before cost of risk
- Strong returns historically and relative to capital consumption
- Avg. annual return for high yield portfolio Q115-Q420 at 7.5%
| Portfolio data | 31.12.20 | 30.09.20 | 31.12.19 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Size bond & cash eq. (MNOK)1 |
11 603 | 11 788 | 9 757 |
| Avg. ref. rate (NIBOR, STIBOR, etc.) |
0.2% | 0.1% | 1.2% |
| Avg. spread/risk premium (bps) |
210 | 205 | 89 |
| Yield | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.1% |
| Duration | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| Credit duration2 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| Avg. rating3 |
A- | A | A+ |
1 Size excludes forward foreign currency contracts
2Avg. includes bank deposits
3Avg. based on official rating (>60%) and 'Protector rating' (<40%) & is based on linear rating (as usual). WARF methodology would give a somewhat lower IG-rating
1Avg. based on official rating (>60%) and 'Protector rating' (<40%) & is based on linear rating (as usual). WARF methodology would give a somewhat lower IG-rating
HY bond transactions January to June 2020
Protector will invest aggressively in rare situations when our assessment is outstanding risk/reward
- Severe stress tests avoids forced selling
- No "customer" will withdraw money
- We hedge all currency and have no risk of forced selling if banks demand more collateral.
- We typically have some excess capital to deploy when opportunity arise
- Flexible investment model. In March we bought High Yield. In the next crises it could be equities, buy-backs or something else
- Close cooperation with CEO, CFO and CRO ensures adequate risk evaluation
- All company capital allocation alternatives evaluated at all times
Spread line is Spb1 Markets' 'Norsk Xover Replika'
Bond portfolio – return and capital consumption Focus on return on capital consumed
Protector return ex investments in HY bond funds from March '15
HTD outperformance at lower risk and capital consumption
1Carnegie Corporate bond fund used as proxy for crossover bond funds
2¨Capital consumption before any diversification effects = after tax loss in stress + capital consumption under SII
Capital Markets Day 2021 Virtual Webcast| March 10th | From 10:00
| 10:00 – | Protector – |
|---|---|
| 10:30 | We have only just begun |
| 10:30 – | Nordics – |
| 10:45 | Back on Track |
| 10:45 – | UK – |
| 11:00 | A Disciplined Team Journey |
| 11:00 – | Investments – |
| 11:15 | Core business |
| 11:15 – 11:40 |
Long-term target and shareholder distribution |
| 11:40 – 12:00 |
Summary, Succession and Q&A |
Earlier communicated long-term financial objectives
Profitability first. A balance sheet that can handle the unexpected
| Long-term financial objectives (looking 3 years ahead from Feb. '20) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Combined Ratio: | 94 % | |||
| Return on Equity (ROE): | > 20 % | |||
| Gross Written Premium (GWP) growth: | 5 % | |||
| Solvency II Capital Ratio (SCR): | > 150 % |
1 Return on Solvency Capital until 2016 when reflecting changes in accounting principles from Jan. 1st 2016 where Shareholder's Equity includes security provisions
² Volatility adjusted SCR 2019 and YTD 2020
Combined ratio considerations 2021
Improvements on it's way
| 2020 net combined ratio at | 94.8 % | |
|---|---|---|
| + | Covid-19 effects | 1 %-points |
| + | Some negative surprises normally occur – "safety margin" |
2-4 %-points |
| 0 | Quality of customer portfolio slightly better, but what about new clients? | 0 %-points |
| - | Earned premium effect lagging from 2020 | 1.2 %-point |
| - | Price increases Nordic higher than price inflation 2021 | 2 %-points |
| - | Cost ratio improvements 2021 vs. 2020 | 1 %-point |
| - | Net run-off losses 2021 vs. 2020, prudent reserve history | 2.2 %-points |
| - | Large loss ratio higher than normalised 7% | 1.8 %-points |
| We expect to deliver a combined ratio for 2021 at | 90-92% |
The situation entering March Combined ratio probably on budget – very good start on investments
| • Volume |
In line with budget assumptions |
|---|---|
| • Price increases January 1st |
5.8% increase above claims inflation on BNOK 2 premium |
| • Large losses |
Slightly lower than normalized (volatility expected) |
| • Motor |
Good start |
| • DARAG deal |
Will reduce downside (and upside) on WC Denmark and Norway |
| • Long tail business |
No analysis have been made |
| • Margin of safety |
Slightly increased at the moment |
Protectors competitive position Strong 2021 entry, significant identified upsides
- Nordic business back on track after trouble.
- Sweden and Norway looks strong
- Denmark about to recover, but still need more work
- Public Nordics look strong with limited competition and significant competitive edge
- UK has started very well.
- Competitive edge arriving in Public and Housing sector.
- No competitive disadvantage in reinsurance.
- Investments doing very well; further improvements identified.
- Capital outlook very strong; comfortable downside protection
- Claims handling quality and efficiency improvements realistic
- No new market expected in period 2021-2023
Market background A hardening market, slightly reduced competition
| • | Interest rate level at 0 for a long time leads to increased UW discipline | + |
|---|---|---|
| • | Reinsurance trouble supports UW discipline | + |
| • | Very disciplined Nordic market will continue | + |
| • | Industry consolidation reduces competition and supports discipline • Trygg-Hansa, Fremtind and some smaller players disappearing |
+ |
| • | Covid-19 supports stability and reduces Churn in Nordic short term | + |
| • | Brexit could reduce risk appetite in UK among some big players | 0 |
| • | Undisciplined UK market are growing more disciplined | 0 |
| • | Covid-19 reduces new sales (not in Public) short term in UK | - |
Risk Level in Protector Risk level slightly down in 2021-2023
- Higher volatility due to some Property volume and (motor) Liability in UK Increased risk
- Higher Nat Cat risk due to increased Housing portfolio in UK Increased risk
- Four countries with (close to) critical mass is a new situation for Protector Reduced risk
- Significant reduced long and medium tail business Reduced risk
- Increased level of frequency business with strong competitive edge (motor) Reduced risk
- Relative level of new (and more risky) business going down Reduced risk
- Moving volume from 1.0 bill to 1.5 bill in 18 moths is very risky
- Moving from 5.5 bill to 6.0 bill in 12 months is not that risky
- Cost ratio the "real way" going down '21-'23. CL8. No risk
- New crises will arrive, but budgets always include a "margin of safety" Risk as always
New long-term financial objectives – 3Y perspective
Profitable growth with a Combined Ratio 90-92%
| Long-term financial objectives | Old | New | Guiding 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net Combined Ratio: | 94 % | 90-92% | 90-92% |
| Return on Equity (ROE): | > 20 % | > 20% | |
| Gross Written Premium (GWP) growth: | 5 % | Disciplined | 10% |
| Solvency II Capital Ratio (SCR): | > 150 % | > 150% |
Capital Allocation
Maximise shareholder return
Capital allocation – maximize shareholder return Priority 1: Always profitable growth in insurance, if possible
Main capital allocation alternatives:
1
2
5
- Allocation towards profitable growth is preferred; stay disciplined
- Challenging to allocate capital in times of low credit spreads and all-time-high stock markets
- How much capital should be kept for future financial market crises? 3
- An attractive alternative if meeting hurdle; will normally have to bid with significant premium 4
- Capital base discipline; flexible distribution of excess capital if allocation cannot be made elsewhere
| • Determine minimum hurdle rate (RoE>20%) |
|
|---|---|
| • Calculate returns for all internal and external allocation alternatives available, by return and risk |
|
| Capital allocation approach | • Deploy capital in the most attractive alternatives above hurdle. |
| • Release underperforming capital (COI, Price increases, WC Denmark and Norway as example) |
|
Capital allocation alternatives – what have we done? Maximizing shareholder return
Differing values from P&Ls due to exchange rates applied
| 3 | Buy backs | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| • Historical buy backs – in all 26.2m shares |
|||||||
| Buy backs | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2018 | ||
| # shares | 2 718 645 | 14 762 900 | 3 348 920 | 955 782 | 4 404 622 | ||
| 10.91 | 7.22 | 6.00 | 9.67 | 57.50 |
Differing values from P&Ls due to exchange rates applied
75
| 4 | Dividends | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| • Dividends of 14.45 per share paid out pre 2020 |
|||||||||
| Dividends | 2009 | 2010 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2020 |
| Per share | 1.25 | 1.50 | 1.20 | 1.75 | 2.00 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 3.00 |
Other capital allocation initiatives
Optimize sources and cost of capital
- T1 and T2 issuances
- Buying additional Large Loss Reinsurance with "0 risk" for capital reasons
- Solvency based Reinsurance, incl. retroactive option in financial turmoil
- Sale of COI reserves
- Sale of WC reserves
- Put options / investment hedging
Capital allocation – maximize shareholder return Priority 1: Always profitable growth in insurance, if possible
Main capital allocation alternatives:
1
2
5
- Allocation towards profitable growth is preferred; stay disciplined
- Challenging to allocate capital in times of low credit spreads and all-time-high stock markets
- How much capital should be kept for future financial market crises? 3
- An attractive alternative if meeting hurdle; will normally have to bid with significant premium 4
- Capital base discipline; flexible distribution of excess capital if allocation cannot be made elsewhere
| • Determine minimum hurdle rate (RoE>20%) • Calculate returns for all internal and external allocation alternatives available, by return and risk |
|
|---|---|
| Capital allocation approach | • Deploy capital in the most attractive alternatives above hurdle. |
| • Release underperforming capital (COI, Price increases, WC Denmark and Norway as example) |
Profitable insurance growth the preferred alternative Significant growth opportunities also in future – profitability before growth
Step by step growth
But with discipline to release underperforming capital
• Exit COI
78
- Exit WC Denmark
- Exit WC within health and welfare in Norway (Covid-19 exposure)
- Significant Nordic price increases 2019-2020
- Continuous portfolio discipline to get rid of bad apples
Capital allocation alternatives Excess capital has value, but is also a headwind for returns
Illustration of excess capital
1. Holding too much excess capital is a significant headwind for returns.
2. Patience is also key, when there is nothing intelligent to do it is a mistake to try to be intelligent
New dividend policy in Protector decided March 4th
Flexible Shareholder distribution policy – profitable growth in insurance always priority nr 1
Solvency II ratio
| 180% 150% |
Current level = 203% |
• Capital over 180% in SCR ratio distributed over time |
|---|---|---|
| Normal Range | • Shareholder distribution normally 20%-80% of net profit • Quarterly decisions, all allocation alternatives evaluated • Profitable insurance growth always prioritized |
|
| • Build solvency capital, any shareholder distribution only after a careful consideration |
Capital allocation – maximize shareholder return
We are good at it and both management and board members are significant sharehoders
Main capital allocation alternatives:
1
2
5
- Allocation towards profitable growth is preferred; stay disciplined
- Challenging to allocate capital in times of low credit spreads and all-time-high stock markets
- How much capital should be kept for future financial market crises? 3
- An attractive alternative if meeting hurdle; will normally have to bid with significant premium 4
- Capital base discipline; flexible distribution of excess capital if allocation cannot be made elsewhere
| • Determine minimum hurdle rate (RoE>20%) |
|
|---|---|
| • Calculate returns for all internal and external allocation alternatives available, by return and risk |
|
| Capital allocation approach | • Deploy capital in the most attractive alternatives above hurdle. |
| • Release underperforming capital (COI, Price increases, WC Denmark and Norway as example) |
|
Capital Markets Day 2021 Virtual Webcast| March 10th | From 10:00
| 11:40 – 12:00 |
Summary, Succession and Q&A |
|---|---|
| 11:15 – 11:40 |
Long-term target and shareholder distribution |
| 11:00 – | Investments – |
| 11:15 | Core business |
| 10:45 – | UK – |
| 11:00 | A Disciplined Team Journey |
| 10:30 – | Nordics – |
| 10:45 | Back on Track |
| 10:00 – | Protector – |
| 10:30 | We have only just begun |
New information released today SCR-ratio up 19% points, YTD equity return > MNOK 350, 3-year CR 90-92%
- New BNOK 1.9 reinsurance deal on WC Denmark/Norway signed March 9th
- YTD equity portfolio return > MNOK 350
- Long-term (3 years) combined ratio target changed from 94% to 90-92%
- New flexible dividend policy decided in the board
Summary of today – we have only just begun HTD ROE is 19% - new target is Combined ratio 90-92% and ROE 20%
- Thank you for listening
- HTD CAGR share price at 27% what's your call ?
Succession: McKinsey on "Last 100 days of an CEO"
We started succession many years ago
- Fight the intuitive feeling of "a need to step back" to leave the floor to next CEO
- Continue acting as a CEO and leave the company stronger
- Do not postpone strategy development
- Act on prioritized improvement possibilities (cost cutting, new business, etc.)
- Involve management and board in a transparent structured transfer of roles and responsibilities
- Update new CEO on organization and people
- Make your (Sverre, Henrik, Hans and management) priority action plan for the last 100 days
- Have fun (added by Sverre)
Succession is about 'The Team'
Involve management in a transparent structured transfer of roles and responsibilities
Henrik Høye CEO in September, Hans Didring nr. 2 – One Team approach is what matters
Appendix
Strategy – Well defined and consistent
Like most international companies in the Nordics
- All Property & Casualty products
- Competitive prices (supported by cost leadership)
- Broker distribution only
- USP: Easy to do business with, Commercially attractive and Trustworthy
- Market segments: Medium to large Companies & Public Sector
Nordic
Segments – Public & Commercial
Commercial sector 72 % of Nordic revenues
- Corporate clients minimum size NOK 0.2m
- Standardized products; Workers Compensation, Group Life, Other Insurance, Accident, Health , Property, Motor, Liability & Cargo
- Similar underwriting process in all countries; securing efficiency and quality in decision-making
- Underwriters, risk-engineers, Key Account Managers and management present in underwriting meetings
Revenue development per country – GWP (MNOK)
Summary Market drivers
- Cost and quality leadership
- Protector's market appetite in Nordics is > NOK 30bn
- Market dominated by a few large players in each market with approximately 75% of the market
Public sector 28 % of Nordic revenues
- Protector is the market leader in the Nordics
- Insuring more than 600 municipalities
- 280 Norwegian, 240 Swedish and 80 Danish clients
- Protector quotes all tenders and all product lines
- Underwriting in the Nordics centralized from Oslo
- Service and claims handling locally
Revenue development per country – GWP (MNOK)
Summary Market drivers
- Few players and tough market conditions
- Tender processes are governed by public procurement regulation
- Avg. tender evaluation criteria 30% quality and 70% price
- Nordic market appetite is more than NOK 2bn
Average exchange rates is applied to each year, will not give same result as our books.
Reserve history Prudent
- Protector does not expect run-off gains nor losses in our reserving
- Reserves are volatile in some products, but HTD Protector has run-off gains of ~190 MNOK
- Property & Motor Large gains
- COI Large losses
- Long tail (NOR) Some gains
- WC Denmark Some losses
Reserve outlook next 10 years
- COI exit, commercial portfolio moving towards 100%
- Some volatility should be expected, especially on a quarterly basis
- UK disciplined growth with 80 % short tail and more reinsurance protection
Normalized Large Losses
Gross large losses1 of MNOK 156 (11.1%)
- Gross large loss definition:
- Reserve changes > MNOK 10 included, excluding Workers' Comp claims (they are normally run-offs)
- Normalized level at ≈ 7%.
94 1 Gross large losses defined as losses or loss adjustments > MNOK 10 2 Two very large claims capped at MNOK 100
Prepared for continued growth
The Challenger in the Nordics
Cross-border control will take us from Good to Great
Structure & Technology Profitability UW excellence Claims handling Competence development
96