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Q1 2020 Interim results

Investor Presentation

Oslo, 29 April 2021

Sverre Bjerkeli Chief Executive Officer

Our DNA

Vision

The Challenger

Business Idea

This will happen through unique relationships, best in class decisionmaking and cost effective solutions

Main targets

Cost and quality leadership

Profitable growth

Top 3

Values

Credible

Innovative/Open

Bold

Committed

Result highlight Q1 2021 Combined ratio at 91.1% | Investment return at 4% | EPS at NOK 7

Net combined ratio at 91.1% (98.3% in Q1 '20)
GWP growth at 1.8% (1.5% in local currencies)
- Exit Workers' Compensation business Denmark and Norway, MNOK 188 (6.5 %)
Investment return of MNOK 581, or 4%
Profit after tax of MNOK 573 (MNOK -385) EPS at NOK 7
Special dividend of NOK 1.67 per share
Solvency Capital Ratio at 216% post special dividend

Volume update Volume up 1.8%, renewal rate in the Nordics is back on a good level

MNOK 52 (1.8%) growth (1.5% in LCY)
Supported by price increases (8.9%)
Exit of WC in Denmark (risk and capital reasons) and from WC Health and Welfare segments in Norway (Covid-19). MNOK 188 (6.5%)
Strong new sales Sweden
Small UK quarter, new sales slowing down
Behind full year guiding
- WC exit is history, all clients with renewal date in January
- Volume will be on a higher level the coming quarters

in MNOK
Business unit	Q1 '21		Q1 '20 Growth
Norway	856	820	36
Sweden	895	789	106
Denmark	727	813	- 86
UK	238	192	45
Finland	164	213	- 49
Protector	2 880	2 828	52
COI	47	63	- 16
Protector incl. COI	2 927	2 891	36

Claims update Claims ratio at 78.5%, 11% down from last year

Net claims ratio at 78.5% (89.7%)
Run-off gains at 0.1% (0.3%)
- Gains on WC Norway, losses on WC Denmark

¹ Net effect of large losses defined as gross losses or gross absolute loss adjustments > MNOK 10

Large losses1 at 1.9% (4.6%), 5.1%-points lower than normalized
- Gross claims ratio 4%-points better than net claims ratio
COVID-19 effects on the positive side in total 2.0%-point effect on net combined ratio
Ahead of full-year guiding, as Q1 seasonality-wise is normally worst.

Business unit	Q1 '21 Gross	Q1 '21 Net	Q1 '20 Gross	Q1 '20 Net
Norway	68 %	84 %	94 %	96 %
Sweden	61 %	65 %	80 %	79 %
Denmark	104 %	84 %	105 %	113 %
UK	75 %	83 %	66 %	80 %
Finland	102 %	98 %	68 %	69 %
Protector	75 %	79 %	86 %	90 %

Large losses Gross large losses¹ of MNOK 27 (1.9%)

• Gross large losses of MNOK 27, or 1.9% in Q1

• Volatility must be expected

Reinsurance will sometimes influence on net claims ratio
- When gross large losses are high, net losses are often lower
- When gross large losses are low, net losses are often higher
  - In Q1, net losses is 4%-points higher than gross

¹ Large losses defined as gross losses or gross absolute loss adjustments > MNOK 10 ² Two very large claims capped at MNOK 100

Protector Combined Ratio Net CR at 91.1%

Q1 2021

	Norway		Sweden		Denmark		UK		Finland		Protector
	Q1 2021	Q1 2020	Q1 2021	Q1 2020	Q1 2021	Q1 2020	Q1 2021	Q1 2020	Q1 2021	Q1 2020	Q1 2021	Q1 2020
Gross premium written	856	820	895	789	727	813	238	192	164	213	2 880	2 828
Gross premium earned	343	367	434	397	207	234	334	227	70	68	1 388	1 293
Net premium earned	305	328	373	349	180	204	254	181	62	61	1 175	1 122
Gross claims ratio	68.1 %	94.3 %	61.1 %	80.3 %	103.6 %	105.0 %	75.2 %	65.7 %	101.6 %	67.6 %	74.6 %	85.5 %
Gross cost ratio	8.9 %	7.6 %	14.7 %	12.1 %	10.4 %	5.7 %	18.5 %	12.4 %	8.2 %	3.9 %	13.2 %	9.3 %
Gross combined ratio	77.0 %	101.9 %	75.7 %	92.3 %	114.0 %	110.8 %	93.7 %	78.1 %	109.8 %	71.5 %	87.8 %	94.8 %
Net claims ratio	83.7 %	96.1 %	65.1 %	78.8 %	84.1 %	112.7 %	83.2 %	80.1 %	98.3 %	69.0 %	78.5 %	89.7 %
Net cost ratio	10.5 %	4.8 %	13.3 %	11.3 %	6.5 %	8.3 %	19.0 %	13.5 %	9.2 %	1.0 %	12.6 %	8.6 %
Net combined ratio	94.2 %	100.8 %	78.4 %	90.1 %	90.6 %	121.0 %	102.2 %	93.5 %	107.5 %	70.0 %	91.1 %	98.3 %

• Quarterly volatility on country level must be expected.

Gross and net CR in Norway and Denmark deviate significantly due to reserve changes following the Darag-deal.
Cost is significantly elevated in Q1 due to (i) 'long-term bonus plan' linked to share price development (3%-points), and (ii) growth stemming from UK/Sweden, where commissions are driving cost ratio upward (neutral from a competitive point of view).

Country specific comments Very good start on the year – price increases still on the agenda

Gross vs. net CR: "Darag result effect in Q1 '21" of MNOK -53.8. GWP effect of WC exit of MNOK 31. Underlying growth and profitability looks good. Price increases on EB products still necessary.

Good figures. New sales stronger than anticipated and will probably continue going forward. Some price increases still necessary on Property products.

Price increases on Motor still necessary. "Money sent to reinsurers". Small volume quarter and low new sales, also slowing down going forward.

GWP effect of WC exit of MNOK 159 – now history. Renewal rate on a high level on all other products.

Covid-19 continues to influence growth negatively, but UK is gradually opening up now.

No critical mass – small figures – high volatility

Accumulated Darag effect is close to zero on company level; in line with expectations

Gross vs. net CR: "Darag result effect in Q1 '21" of MNOK 53.9.

Status vs. 2021 guiding Profitability and solidity ahead of guiding, growth lagging behind

	Guiding 2021	Result Q1	Status
Net Combined Ratio:	90-92%	91.1%	Ahead
Return on Equity (ROE):	>20%	17.5%*	Ahead
Gross Written Premium (GWP) growth:	10% (LCY)	1.5% (LCY)	Behind
Solvency II Capital Ratio (SCR):	> 150%	216%	Very solid

Investments

Investment is core

Investment performance Gain of MNOK 581 (4.0%)

Q1 return on investment portfolio at 4.0%, or MNOK 581
- Equity portfolio returning 27.2%, ex. put options
- Bond portfolio has gained 0.7%

• Remember that we invest for the long run; quarterly gains or losses will to a great extent be unrealized.

Bond portfolio statistics

0.7% return in Q1, running yield at 2.0% before cost of risk

Bond portfolio returning 0.7%, or MNOK 92
- Significant administrative cost effect in Q1 due to long term bonus agreements
Running yield at 2.0%, before cost of risk
- Avg. spread down 31 bps and avg. ref. rate down 8 bps relative to YE2020
HY portfolio totalling BNOK 4.2
- HY fund investments totalling MNOK 1.4bn
Very strong Nordic HY market in Q121
- DNB Markets Nordic HY index yielding +3.6%
One very positive outcome on a high-risk position in quarter

Portfolio data	31.03.21	31.12.20	31.03.20
Size bond & cash eq. (MNOK)1	12 472	11 603	10 151
Avg. ref. rate (NIBOR, STIBOR, etc.)	0.1%	0.2%	0.5%
Avg. spread/risk premium (bps)	179	210	320
Yield	2.0%	2.3%	2.1%
Duration	0.4	0.4	0.4
Credit duration2	1.4	1.4	2.2
Avg. rating3	A-	A-	A

¹ Size excludes forward foreign currency contracts

²Avg. includes bank deposits

³Avg. based on official rating (>60%) and 'Protector rating' (<40%) & is based on linear rating (as usual). WARF methodology would give a somewhat lower IG-rating

¹Avg. based on official rating (>60%) and 'Protector rating' (<40%) & is based on linear rating (as usual). WARF methodology would give a somewhat lower IG-rating

Equity portfolio statistics Portfolio returning 27.2%

Equities gaining 27.2% in Q1, or 508 MNOK
Equity share at 16.2% (13.5% YE2020).
Discount to estimated intrinsic value at 15%
Currently 20 companies in the portfolio