Investor Presentation • Sep 13, 2021
Investor Presentation
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INDEPENDENT EQUIT Y RESEARCH
13.09.2021

Prime Energy (TASE: PRIM) was established in Israel in 2013. The company initiates, develops, builds, operates, and maintains renewable energy projects in Israel and Europe. It has successful experience across all stages of renewable energy projects. It developed the first dual-use solar system in Israel. The company currently has 680 megawatts projects in various stages of development and a storage capacity of 1,000 MW in Israel. The company aims to guarantee the production of 4,000 MW worldwide by 2030.
Market and trends – Globally, investment in renewable energy hit a high of \$350 billion in 2020, with solar PV and wind power accounting for \$290 billion of the total. A decade of high investment is expected as the case for renewable energy becomes ever stronger.
Strategy - Prime Energy seeks to increase its installed capacity, develop new partnerships in diverse global markets, and use advanced technology to improve its operating margins.
Our valuation encompasses 21 identified clusters of projects. We calculated the NPV for each project based on the probability of the projects and Prime Energy's holdings percentage. Furthermore, we calculated other assets and liabilities the company has, as we will elaborate on later in our report.
Based on all parameters, we evaluate the company's equity value at NIS 565.9 million; the price target is to be in the range of NIS 18.3 to NIS 20.4 with a mean of NIS 19.3.
| Year | Revenues* (000 NIS) |
EBITDA* (000 NIS) |
MW connected* |
Yield in percent |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021E | 8,800 | 7,100 | 37.0 | |
| 2022E | 42,666 | 32,815 | 86.9 | |
| 2023E | 137,664 | 103,982 | 667 |
*Expected annual revenues/EBITDArate from projects (representing 100% holdings in projects assuming a full year of operation), not including management fees and additional income at the corporation level; includingprojects abroad.
| Investment Thesis |
1-4 |
|---|---|
| 1. Company Overview |
5-9 |
| 2. Technology Overview | 10-15 |
| 3. Market Overview | 10-30 |
| 4. Competitive landscape | 31-32 |
| 5. Company Financial Analysis & Valuation |
33-38 |
| Appendix #.1: Capitalization Rate (WACC) | 39 |
| Appendix #.2: About Frost & Sullivan | 40 |
| Appendix #.3: Team biographies | 41 |
| Disclaimers, disclosures, and insights for more responsible investment decisions 412 |
Climate change is one of the most significant concerns facing governments worldwide, and achieving decarbonization in the power sector is the key to tackling the issue. While hydropower has been a major source of energy generation for decades, solar and wind energy have been gaining momentum, with the Paris Agreement of 2015 propelling the growth further. Globally, investment in renewable energy hit a high of \$350 billion in 2020, with solar PV and wind power accounting for \$290 billion of the total. A decade of high investment is expected as the case for renewable energy becomes ever stronger.
The implementation of government decisions translates into policies, regulations, and licensing processes of companies that build renewable energy electricity generating facilities that are supposed to provide electricity over many years in a reliable, safe, and economical manner.
Prime Energy (TASE: PRIM) has experience across all steps and stages of renewable energy projects. The company has initiated and successfully erected PV projects in Israel with approx. 100 MW capacity, which exemplifies Prime Energy's high capabilities in developing projects from early stages. Overall, it has a projects portfolio with an operational capacity of approx. 1.4 GW under various stages of development, construction, and operation (Prime Energy's total accumulated share is approx. 1.3 GW).
Prime Energy's strategy is to increase its installed capacity by acquiring new facilities (at various initiation and development stages) and making bids on tenders and competitive procedures. In addition, the company seeks to develop new partnerships in diverse global markets to promote new projects worldwide (focusing on the United States and Europe) while combining its core capabilities in planning and development with local capabilities required by the local developers. As the company is tech-agnostic, it also examines the viability of investing in other projects besides PV, such as storage, wind, and more.
Lastly, the company plans to use advanced robotic solar panel cleaners to maximize energy production and operational efficiencies to improve its operating margins.
Diversified projects pipeline, characterized by high holding rates.
Experienced professional and management teams in the solar field.
Prime Energy has disclosed information about 21 clusters of projects, some large-scale and others encompassing numerous standalone projects with medium to low power range, totaling approximately 1,380 MW. These projects are in operation or various stages of development in three countries (Israel, Italy, and Romania) and in key areas of renewable energy – primarily solar PV and energy storage. To evaluate each project's NPV, we used the procedure described in the Company Financial Analysis & Valuation chapter.
As of today, all of Prime Energy's revenues are generated from its Israeli facilities. In accordance with the company strategy to expand its operations in Italy and Romania, the EU will become a significant revenuegenerating market, as we show in the figure below. We assume that by 2026, total revenues will total NIS 422 million. On the chart below, we display the estimated increase in revenues during the forecast period:

**Expected annual revenues/ebitda rate from projects (representing 100% holdings in projects assuming a full year of operation ), not including management fees and additional income at the corporation level.
We forecast that Prime Energy projects' (representing 100% holdings) will generate annual revenue at a rate of NIS 42.6 million by the end of 2022 and NIS 241 million by the end of 2024.
Based on the above parameters, we evaluate the company's pipeline at NIS 580.2 million as we present below:
| # | Projects grouped by country | NPV NIS (000) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Israel | 436,707 |
| 2 | EU | 143,573 |
| Total pipeline value | 580,280 |
1 NPV calculation is based on: a) considering company holdings; b) probability parameters.
We evaluated Prime Energy's equity value based on 21 clusters of projects within the company's pipeline that the company has identified and disclosed. To the sum of the different projects NPV, we added EPC fees that the company is entitled to receive in any project that completes the financial closing.
On the expenses side, Prime Energy has general and administrative (G&A) expenses. We consider the baseline G&A expenses reported in the company's financial reports, assuming an annual increase of NIS 1 million per year until 2024. We then assumed a 3% annual increase as the company will need to support its progress.
According to the company's financial statement, as of June 30, 2021, the company's share in cash was NIS 48.2 million. On August 12, the company issued convertible bonds in the amount of NIS 79.1 million. We added these as non-operational assets/liabilities. Below is our equity value breakdown:
| Parameter | NIS (000) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Pipeline (NPV + EPC) | 580,280 | |||
| G&A expenses | (60,738) | |||
| EV | 519,542 | |||
| Non-operating assets/liabilities | ||||
| Cash + Convertible Bond Proceeds |
125,471 | |||
| Loans | (79,150) | |||
| Total non-operating | 46,321 | |||
| Equity Value | 565,863 |
Based on the above parameters, we evaluate the company's equity value at NIS 565.9 million. This valuation encompasses an identified project totaling 1,380 MW.
The table below presents Prime Energy's share price target concerning the capitalization rate. We set a range of 0.5% change from our WACC model (see Appendix 1). The company has 29.3 million shares as of September 13, 2021.
| Cap rate | Price target |
|---|---|
| 4.54% | 20.4 |
| 5.04% | 19.3 |
| 5.54% | 18.3 |
We estimate the price target to be in the range of NIS 18.3 to NIS 20.4 with a mean of NIS 19.3.
Prime Energy (TASE: PRIM) develops, implements, and maintains sustainable projects to create pure and renewable energy. Below is a timeline of the company, from conception until today:

Prime Energy focuses on initiating, developing, licensing, managing, managing financing procedures, setting up, maintaining, and operating electricity generation projects in Israel, using photovoltaic technology-based (PV) systems, including cells for converting solar radiation into electricity. They are in a mutual Promotion Agreement with a local partner in Italy and have a signed term sheet for investment in Romania.
Prime Energy is an Israeli engineering pioneer in the dual-use and application of systems in the field. Prime Energy maintains advanced contacts to enter the field of production and installation of wind turbines alongside innovative developments in improving efficiency and managing the storage of the energy produced for future uses in both industries and households.
Prime Energy has the experience and a reputation in the field of photovoltaics in a variety of aspects – initiation, construction, and operation. The company currently has 680 megawatts projects in various developmentstages and a storage capacity of 1000 MW in Israel. The company aims to guarantee the production of 4000MW worldwide by 2030. Domestically, the company's goal is to produce 1855 MW with
1080 MW of storage. Abroad, their goal is to produce 2000 MW, focusing mainly on Italy and Romania, with plans to expand to other geographies in the next few years.
Prime Energy seeks to increase its installed capacity by acquiring new facilities (at various stages of initiation and development), making bids on tenders and competitive procedures, and collaborating with partners abroad. The company is actively seeking to expand internationally, focusing on the United States and European countries other than those that it is already working with – Italy and Romania. The two main focuses of the company are (i) the generation and storage of photovoltaic (PV) energy, for which demand has grown significantly in recent years, and (ii) examining the viability of investing in wind energy.
Prime Energy focuses on the initiation and development of projects, leading to their erection and commercial operation. Activities at these stages necessitate diverse knowledge and expertise and involve uncertainty regarding the chances of realization of the projects.
Prime Energy has initiated and successfully erected PV projects in Israel with approx. 100 MW capacity, which exemplifies Prime Energy's high capabilities in developing projects from early stages. Prime Energy also seeks to develop new partnerships in diverse global markets to promote new projects worldwide while combining its core planning and development capabilities with local developers' capabilities.
| Project Stage | Capacity (Based on 100% Share) |
|---|---|
| Commercial Operation Phase | 18 MW |
| Construction Phase | 80 MW |
| Licensing Process Phase | 150 MW |
| Development Phase | 430 MW |
| Development Phase - EU | 700 MW |
| Total | ~1,380 MW |
Source: https://prime-nergy.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Prime-Energy-Presentation-6-2021.pdf
Prime Energy started its operations in Israel as a contractor for small-sized projects. It has since grown multifold, developing large-scale projects and achieving several 'firsts' in the Israeli renewable industry. It developed the first dual-use solar system in Israel.
One of Prime Energy's most significant Israeli projects was constructing a solar plant in Moshav Kadesh Barnea, in which the company invested ILS 55 million, which started its full operation in May 2021. This field is expected to be used for 23 years with the guide and maintenance of Prime Energy's top experts while producing an estimated annual income of ILS 4.7 million.
One of the innovative features used in this project, for the first time in Israel, is Dual-use technology. This method of energy production refers to agricultural production and electricity production from solar photovoltaic (PV) panels occurring together on the same piece of land. This unique technology produces maximum efficiency from a given area, using it concurrently for agricultural purposes and green and sustainable energy production.


| Status | Project | Operating Term (expected) |
MW capacity (DC) |
Maintenance rate |
Tariff per kWh |
Annual operating income |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commercial | Competitive procedure no. 1: 5 facilities |
Q2 2019 – 2020 | 18* | 70% | ₪0.2018 | ₪6 million |
| operation | 30 first arrangement facilities |
2011 – 2012 | 1.5 | 100% | ₪1.75 (average) |
₪5.2 million |
| Competitive procedure no. 4: Land |
2022 | 21 | 100% | ₪0.1798 | ₪6.4 million | |
| Establishing | Competitive procedure no. 3: Roofs |
2021 | 15 | 100% | ₪0.1818 | ₪4.6 million |
| & licensing | Tariff systems | 2022 | 14.5 | 100% | ₪0.45 | ₪11.1 million |
| 2021 regulation tariff systems |
2022 | 27.5 | 100% | ₪0.225 | ₪10.5 million |
| - | 2022 – 2024 | 150 | 100% | ₪0.195 | ₪51.2 million | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Investment | - | 2023 – 2030 | 430 | 95% | - | - |
| Totals | 677.5 | ₪95 million |
* Prime Energy holds all necessary approvals to connect an additional 3.5MW Source: https://maya.tase.co.il/reports/details/1384224/2/0


Prime Energy is developing partnerships initiating photovoltaic facilities in Europe through KWP Solar, a wholly-owned subsidiary, focusing on Italy and Romania. This includes initiation, planning, licensing, financing, construction, operation, and maintenance of photovoltaic systems. The company is also considering investment opportunities in other European countries and North America.
There is significant growth and supportive legislation in the renewable energy market. Renewable energy accounts for over 17% of the country's electricity production, with goals of reaching 30% by 2030. Due to the strong solar radiation in the region, there would be a high utilization of facilities. The following graph shows the history and forecasts of energy sources in Italy:

Prime Energy has signed a joint venture agreement with a local partner amounting to 402 MW. Both partners agreed to establish a joint company for the projects' development, construction, financing, and operation, not selling shares until all projects enter commercial operation. The cost of setting up these projects is estimated at EUR 250 million and, assuming the projects are built and connected to the electricity grid, is expected to yield an annual income for the joint company of EUR 30 million. Prime Energy will provide equity loans in the amount needed to establish each project at an annual interest rate specified in the agreement. Upon bringing a project to the stage of Ready-to-Build (RTB), developers will receive an initiation fee from the joint company.
Romania's electricity is still produced from over 70% of pollutant sources (coal, oil, gas). The government has set a goal to end the use of coal for energy production by 2032, shifting to hydro, wind, and photovoltaic sources, which are projected to reach 32% by that date. Romania's historical sources of energy consumption are depicted below:

In June 2021, Prime Energy and a Romanian landowner and project developer signed a memorandum of understanding for the promotion, development, construction, and operation of PV facilities, amounting to 300 MW, on the developer's land. The memorandum regulates the lease of the land,the scope of services the developer will provide until the facilities reach the RTB phase, and the possibility for the developer to invest equity up to 20% of the costs of each facility. The cost of setting up the project is estimated at EUR 165 million, with projected annual revenue of about EUR 20 million in 2023.
Photovoltaic devices generate electricity from sunlight using semiconductors. The energy thus harnessed is sent to an electric circuit then used to power devices, sent to a grid, or stored.
A typical panel consists of solar cells made from silicon, boron, and phosphorous. The boron layer is the positive charge, the silicon layer is the semiconductor, and the phosphorus layer carries the negative charge. When the photons (sunlight) strike the cells, the electrons split from the semiconductor due to the photovoltaic effect and then flow into the electric field generated by the solar cells. The number of solar cells in each panel could range between 60 and 90.
Panels can be mono-crystalline, Polycrystalline, Passivated emitter and rear cell panels (PERC), or thin-film panels.
Mono-crystalline panels are made from single pure silicon cells, while polycrystalline cells are made from multiple fragmented silicon cells that are melted and shaped into a square mold, which makes them costeffective.
PERC solar panels are an improvisation of mono-crystalline panels that are characterized by enhanced efficiency. Light waves over 1.180 mm cannot be absorbed by silicon wafers and usually pass through without being absorbed by the semiconductor layer, thereby heating the backs sheet of the panel and reducing the efficiency of the panel. The Passivated layer of the PERC panels allows lights of higher wavelength to be deflected,stopping them from heating the back sheet.
Thin-film solar panels, on the other hand, use cells made from other materials like Cadmium Telluride (CdTe), Amorphous Silicon (a-Si), or Copper Indium Gallium Selenide (CIGS).
Cadmium cells have the same advantages as polycrystalline cells and leave the lowest carbon footprint in their manufacturing process; however the toxicity of Cadmium makes recycling expensive.
The combination of Copper, Indium, Gallium, and Selenide in CIGS panels makes them the most efficient amongst the thin-film panels, although not as efficient as the mono-crystalline panels.
The solar PV industry has been putting in continuous efforts in improving efficiency and, as a result, has been able to increase module output from 250W up to 550-600W over the past decade.
Perovskite Solar cells (PSCs) are an emerging technology promising efficiency of 25.2%. However, the presence of lead could be a concern for commercialization.
Trackers and bifacial modules are outcomes of such efficiency improvement efforts too. Trackers follow the sun path throughout the day, maximizing the output, unlike fixed-tilt ground mount systems. Trackers can be single-axis trackers (tracking either vertical axis (east-west axis) or horizontal axis) or dual-axis trackers (both east-west axis and north-south axis). Dual-axis trackers generate 40.0% more energy than single-axis trackers, but could cost up to 100% more.
Bifacial modules1 optimize the energy production from single-axis trackers by increasing yield by 35%. Costs outweigh the benefits of dual-axis trackers with similar configurations.
| PERC | Mono-crystalline | Polycrystalline | Thin-film | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost | Highest | High | Middle | Highest to lowest: CIGS CdTe a-Si |
| Efficiency | Highest (5% more than mono crystalline) |
20% and up | 15-17% | CIGS: 13-15% CdTe: 9-11% a-Si: 6-8% |
| Advantages | Requires least space Most efficient Highest power capacity |
Less expensive alternative to PERC panels without the passivating layer |
Middle option in terms of cost, efficiency, and power capacity |
Lowest cost; Easier to install |
| Disadvantages | Most expensive Some earlier panels suffered from light and elevated temperature induced degradation |
High initial cost Low yield in the manufacturing process |
Low heat tolerance, not suitable in hot environments |
Shorter lifespan than crystalline panels requires more space Least efficient |
1 Bifacial Modules have solar cells on both sides of the panel.
Increased demand for power generation due to population growth across the globe has resulted in land-use competition. Traditional PV systems require land management and associated acquisition costs, leading to an innovative solution that enables dual land-use systems to combine food and energy production using agro photovoltaic (APV) systems. According to research studies, APVs improve land productivity by up to 70%, and in arid climates, they improve water usage efficiency by providing additional shading leading to higher crop yields.2 According to one of the leading institutes in this space, a wide range of crops including potato, grapes, fruits, spinach, ginseng, beans and legumes, onions, cucumber, and zucchini are suitable for APV installations. Besides, farm animals can be sheltered under APV installations.
APV is still at an early stage of development and still under technological and quality improvements. A good APV design combines agricultural productivity with clean energy production and optimizes land and water use.

Image source: International Journal of innovation technology and exploring engineering
Solar PV modules are fixed at a height of 8 meters above the ground on structures fixed 18 meters apart to leave sufficient space for agricultural machinery to operate. Optimum shading can be obtained using trackers.

Image source: International Journal of innovation technology and exploring engineering
2 Weselek, A., Ehmann, A., Zikeli, S. et al. Agrophotovoltaic systems: applications, challenges, and opportunities. A review. Agron. Sustain. Dev. 39, 35 (2019).
Besides its overall benefit of contribution to CO2 emissions reduction through additional renewable energy production, some additional advantages are:
Some key points to consider in APV installations are the suitability of crops, increased infrastructure and maintenance costs, and the ability of the structure to withstand extreme weather events.
Electricity storage plays a crucial role in the transition to clean, renewable sources, encouraging the shift otherwise marred by storage woes, thereby contributing to rapid decarbonization.
The growth of Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) is highly dependent on storage solutions primarily for stability in supply – requiring storage over days, weeks, or months – and to allow for ample flexibility, a major factor influencing renewable adoption.
As VRE penetration increases, frequency regulation, voltage support, capacity reserve, and spinning reserve will gain significance. For instance, some applications require high power for short durations (requiring frequency regulation, while others require power over a long duration. Uniform charge/discharge cycles would ensure reliability and continuity in supply.
Figure: Positioning of various battery storage technologies in terms of discharge time and capacity

Li-ion batteries exchange lithium ions between cathode and anode. Li-ion batteries usually have Lithium metal oxide cathodes and graphite anodes.
The advantages of Li-ion batteries over other stationary battery systems used for a power range of less than 1 MW include:
Energy densities (energy storage per unit of volume) range between 200 watt-hours per liter to 735 watthours per liter. Costs of installation range between USD 473 /kWh and 1260 /KWh for Lithium Titanate based systems and USD 200-840/KWh for other systems. Round trip efficiency (the ratio of output (KWh) to input of
storage system during one cycle in Direct Current to Direct Current terms for battery systems) for Li-ion batteries range between 92%-96%, and this range is a key advantage.3

Depending on the cell design and operating conditions, the life span of Li-ion batteries ranges between 500- 20,000 cycles, and the best lifetime temperatures are achieved in installations where the temperature ranges between 200 C to 300 C , making cooling essential in hot climates.
Falling installation costs and performance improvements are expected to improve the market for Li-ion batteries. Cost advantages can be achieved through economies of scale and either reducing material use or using highly efficient material. Utilities scale costs are expected to fall further within a range of 54% -61% by 2030. Round trip efficiencies are expected to increase between 94%-98% by 2030 as Li-ion batteries become more competitive.4
Prime energy leverages advanced technology in solar energy production, storage, and maintenance of solar assets. The company plans to use advanced robotic solar panel cleaners to maximize energy production and operational efficienciesto improve its operating margins.
3 Electricity Storage and Renewables : Costs and Markets to 2030, IRENA, 2017 4 Ibid
Climate change is one of the greatest concerns for governments worldwide, and achieving decarbonization in the power sector is the key to tackling the issue. While hydropower has been a major source of energy generation for decades, solar and wind energy have been gaining momentum, and the Paris agreement has propelled the growth further. Investment in renewable energy globally hit a high of \$350 billion in 2020, with solar PV and wind power accounting for \$290 billion of the total. A decade of high investment is forecasted as the business case for renewables becomes ever stronger.
| Drivers | 1–2 Years | 3–4 Years | 5–9 Years |
|---|---|---|---|
| Growing concern for tackling global climate change | |||
| Declining solar and wind generation costs and project costs | |||
| accelerate new deployments | |||
| Declining battery Energy Storage Systems (ESS )costs | |||
| Increased traction for hybrids in Variable Renewable Energy | |||
| (VRE( offers horizontal integration and capacity building |
|||
| opportunities | |||
| Need to replace aging power plants | |||
| Increasing digitization across the renewable energy market |
| Restraints | 1–2 Years | 3–4 Years | 5–9 Years |
|---|---|---|---|
| Need to tackle grid integration issues | |||
| Withdrawal of government subsidies and support could lower | |||
| growth rates |
|||
| Increase in competitive intensity |
Impact Ratings: =High, =Medium, =Low
A total of 2,200 APV plants are estimated to be under operation worldwide, with a total capacity of 2.8 GWp. Research shows southern Mediterranean region in Europe is the most suited in the region for APV installations.
France, Italy, Spain, and Germany are pioneers in APV installations in Europe. Japan, South Korea, China, France, and Massachusetts (USA), have introduced policies supporting APV implementation. In an attempt to boost agrivoltaics, the Israeli Ministry of Energy and Ministry of Agriculture have jointly invested over USD 1 million in six different studies researching efficiencies that can be attained by combining agriculture and Solar PV power generation.
France was the first country in the EU to introduce an APV financial support scheme in 2017. A total of 45 MWp has been tendered. Sun'Agri has been at the forefront in agrivoltaics in France – the 84 KW test project is located at Piolenc in South-Eastern France. Total Quadron and InVivo have announced a deal to deploy 500MW of agrivoltaic plants in France by 2025. Vines are the crops most affected by climate change, and Italy, France, and Spain have immense potential in agrivoltaics. Similarly, the implementation of APV systems in sweet pepper crops in the Negev desert in Israel resulted in increased yields and plant heights. Several research projects are ongoing in Southern Europe (Greece, Spain, and Italy) to assess the potential of APV in improving yields of various crops and animal farming.
Romania is the seventh largest agricultural producer in the EU. Its main crops are Maize, wheat, rye, barley, and vegetables. With over 9.9 million hectares of permanent crops and arable land, it is a particularly suitable candidate for APV installations. There is increased interest in implementing advanced IoT in APV in Romania with research studies underway by the University of Agriculture and Veterinary Medicine, in collaboration with Solarvibes Berlin (coordinator of consortium and partner), Institute Fraunhofer for Reliability and Micro-integration IZM of Munich (partner)
In the USA, a study by Oregon State University found that converting just 1% of the USA's farmland into agrivoltaics would significantly boost the country's ability to meet the National Renewable Energy targets. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) is now conducting an in-depth study on dual-use PV, including studying pollinator habitats across 30 sites in the country, the largest being Jack's Solar Garden in Boulder, Colorado, at 1.2 MW.
| BayWa Re, Netherlands | In partnership with its Dutch Subsidiary GroenLeven, a pilot project in Gelderland, Netherlands has been |
|---|---|
| expanded to include 4500 modules with a generating capacity of 1.2 MWp |
|
| Enel Green Power, Southern Europe | Enel Green Power has launched a research program in Greece, Spain, and Italy to identify farming activities that can be carried out alongside large-scale PV parks with minimal additional cost outlay. |
Table: Key Projects in Agrophotovoltaics, 2021 Source: Enel; BayWa Re;
Improved regulatory frameworks, incentive programs, declining project costs, and auxiliary grid services revenue opportunities have contributed to market growth. Most investment for grid-based storage solutions has been for battery storage systems, specifically those based on lithium-ion, which have declined by 40% since 2016. These storage systems are either pure-hybrid systems – where a renewable energy source and a storage system are combined in the same project – or standalone projects connected to the wider grid.


Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis
Going forward, regulatory mandates and incentives for storage are likely to increase, further driving new investment. As the penetration of renewables moves ever higher, storage will play a pivotal role in ensuring grid stability and maximizing revenue opportunities from renewables – either through increased selfconsumption to avoid high electricity costs and demand charges or through selling electricity back to the grid at times of peak consumption. System costs are also forecast to decline by a further 60% between 2020 and 2030. Higher market volumes will bring economies of scale, but there is still significant potential for further technological innovation.
While safety concerns still plague the Li-ion batteries market, it is estimated to grow at a healthy Compounded Annual Growth rate of 17.9%.

Figure: Forecast of Total Solar PV Installed Capacity in the USA (in GW) 2020-2030
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis
Incentives and supportive policies for deploying storage systems to improve reliability and resiliency of the grid are driving the market for Li-ion batteries. Besides, the growth in micro-grids and smart grids is driving the Li-ion market's growth. The EU Horizon 2020 program incentivizes energy storage research, and similarly, the USA incentivizes Solar PV plus Storage projects through their tax credit program.
Of the 1698 storage projects recorded by the US Department of Energy's global energy storage database with a storage capacity of 190 GW, 95.7% is pumped hydro storage, thermal storage accounts for less than 3.5 GW, and Li-ion batteries account for 1.58% or a little over 3 GW. Given the cost advantages of Li-ion batteries, easy portability, and efficiencies provided, and further technological advancements, the global Li-ion battery market for grid and energy storage, is set to grow at a healthy CAGR of 21.9% and reach USD 53.68 billion in 2030.
Reducing carbon emissions and promoting renewable sources has been one of the primary goals of Israel's Ministry of Energy, in tandem with global goals, and the official target of renewable sources of energy by 2030 was increased to 30.0% from 17.0% in 2020. The target increment is combined with a commitment to phase out the use of coal for power generation by 2030. According to Israel's Energy Minister, this measure is expected to decrease air pollution from the power sector by 93.0% and Green House Gas (GHG) emissions by 50.0%, helping Israel adhere to its Paris Agreement commitments.
At an outlay of NIS 80 billion (\$22 Billion), this plan aims to use solar installations to meet 80.0% of peak energy demand in Israel, with the forecast of 15GW of solar added in the next decade.

As of 2021, Israel is self-sufficient in terms of energy production. Nevertheless, the current 3%-4% increase in the size of the installed power base is expected to be insufficient given the expected population growth from 9 million in 2019 to 13 million in 2030. The current installed capacity of 17.7GW (2019) will have to grow by 3.2x to 58.1 GW by 2030 to meet the growing demand and renewable energy targets. Israel aims to reach 30.0% of electricity production from renewables, of which solar is expected to contribute 90%, and wind, biomass, hydropower, and other renewables are expected to chip in 10.0%.
To support the transition to realize the 2030 vision, the government is putting major systems and regulations in place:

Figure: Forecast of Israel's Cumulative Installed Solar PV (GW) 2020-2030 Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis
This proposed increase to meet renewables target by 2030 presents vast opportunities for
Further, to enhance grid reliability, a total storage of 6.5 GW is estimated to be installed by 20305 .

Figure: Proposed Investments in Electricity Infrastructure (in NIS Millions) 2020-2030 Source: Frost& Sullivan
Yield can be maximized by installing floating PV on pumped storage facilities. Israel's first floating solar PV with a capacity of 480 KW began operating in 2020. Floating solar arrays were installed on a reservoir near the Mishmar HaEmek kibbutz. Further floating PV and agro-photovoltaics retrofitting opportunities can be explored in the country.
Contracts for solar PV and storage capacity of 609 MW were awarded to seven bidders across 33 projects that are expected to deliver power to the Israeli grid by July 2023.
5 https://www.gov.il/BlobFolder/rfp/shim\_2030yaad/he/Files\_Shimuah\_yaad\_2030n\_work\_n.pdf
EU adopted the Renewable Energy Directive (RED II) in December 2018 to achieve a collective, binding target of 32.0% renewable energy by 2030. There is now a proposal to increase to 38.0%-40.0%. These EU-level targets, declining project costs, and national targets are all driving investment growth. Solar PV capacity witnessed 11% growth Y-o-Y during the pandemic in the region, with 18.2 GW installed. An average annual addition of 18.5 GW in the EU is projected by Frost & Sullivan based on the National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) for the next decade to meet 2030 EU targets.
Besides declining project costs, further policy support has ensured the dominance of Solar PV among renewables. The NEXT Generation EU's economic recovery plan has earmarked up to 37.0 %( ~EUR27-30 billion) of funding for investment related to climate change.
The EU's Regional Development and Cohesion Policy outlines five areas of investment priorities. One of the top two objectives is a cleaner and greener Europe and is expected to account for 65.0%-85% of the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) and Cohesion Fund between 2021 and 2027. A further 6.0% is dedicated to sustainable urban development fuelling the market for renewables.
Given that 90.0% of Europe's rooftop space is unused, solar PV's potential to contribute to the renewable targets is considerably higher than other technologies.

Figure: Forecast of Total Solar PV Installed Capacity in EU-27 (in GW) 2020-2030 Source: Frost & Sullivan
| Top 10 Countries | 2020 Total Capacity | 2030 NECP Target | F&S Estimates by 2030 |
Estimated Annual Capacity Addition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | 54.6 | 98.0 | 93.1 | 3.9 |
| France | 10.9 | 40.0 | 40.0 | 2.9 |
| Italy | 21.3 | 51.0 | 48.5 | 2.7 |
| Spain | 13.3 | 39.1 | 35.2 | 2.2 |
| Netherlands | 9.2 | 27.0 | 27.0 | 1.8 |
| Portugal | 1.4 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 0.8 |
| Austria | 2.0 | 9.7 | 8.7 | 0.7 |
| Denmark | 1.7 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 0.6 |
| Belgium | 5.4 | 8.0 | 7.6 | 0.2 |
| Greece | 3.4 | 7.6 | 6.8 | 0.3 |
| UK 13.9 |
40 | 36 | 2.2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| ------------ | ---- | ---- | ----- |
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis
Lower project costs primarily drive PV growth in the European Market, corporate PPAs, high electricity costs – a key part of the commercial and industrial (C&I) use case, net metering, and the need to replace aging coalfired capacity.
The UK's legally binding net zero target for 2050 will require significant policy support. According to the Solar Trade Association of the UK, while the UK has demonstrated abilities to deploy up to 4 GW per annum, there are significant difficulties to contend with both from a regulatory and operational perspective. Frost & Sullivan's conservative estimate is at 2.2 GW per annum – still a considerable increase.
The proposed revision of the Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) to maintain stringency and hold carbon prices at higher levels would further improve the business case for renewables.
The rapid growth in decentralized solar energy generation has tested grid capacities in pockets of accelerated growth in the region (grid's inability to handle additional capacities- for instance, surplus sent to the grid). Tackling this is one element of a EUR 59 billion annual grid modernization package, focusing on digitalization and cybersecurity.
Italy aims to harness 55.0% of its total electricity demand from solar energy by 2030. Solar power is gaining share as a percentage of total renewable installed capacity in a market that had been dominated by hydropower in the past. With its current solar PV installed capacity of 21.3 GW, an added capacity of 31 GW is expected over the next decade with an annual capacity addition of at least 2.7 GW. Italy is one of the two largest solar power markets in Europe.
The growth is being primarily fuelled by PPAs and the accelerating demand for agrophotovoltaics. As a part of the Euro 220 billion COVID-19 recovery package, the Italian government has announced investments of Euro 1.1 billion in agrivoltaics to install around 2GW of APV. It plans to invest EUR 5.9 billion in renewable energy and an additional EUR 5.27 billion in circular economy and sustainable agriculture.
Italy's commitment to achieving its target is witnessed in its comprehensive NECP which details its auctions process, including schedules, volume and design, financing schemes, and prosumer (producer consumers) promotion schemes.
The key challenge in the market has been the cumbersome administrative procedures that increase the complexity of projects. This is due to the involvement of local authorities in the permit process. The NECP has, however, addressed this issue, and implementation will ease this challenge.

Key regions within Italy are Apulia, Sardinia, Lombardy, Veneto, and Emilia-Romagna. 35.0% of capacity additions were through projects of 1MW or higher.

Figure: Solar PV Capacity Addition Breakdown in Italy, 2019 Source: NECP
Romania aims for an installed capacity of 5.1 GW in solar PV by 2030, which is more than double the current installed capacity of 1.4 GW. It is believed that the target doesn't truly reflect its actual potential.

Source: South Eastern Europe Transnational Cooperation Programme
With an irradiance level between 1200-1250 KWh/m2 , the best places for solar power generation are the Dobrogea region, Black Sea Coast, and Danube Delta. Other regions that can be explored are Romanian Plains, West Plains, Banat Plains, Transylvanian Region, and Moldovian Regions.
The average annual estimated solar PV potential is about 1200 GWh. 6
To achieve its target of 3.7 GW in additional PV installed capacity, Romania is set to actively promote residential, industrial, and agricultural prosumers to adopt renewable energy sources. Romania also plans to establish solar parks in less productive lands.
Its Law No. 184/2018 allows prosumers with an installed capacity of not more than 27KW to sell electricity to the grid and not pay excise duties on the energy consumed or sold to encourage renewable energy production and consumption and promote the concept of prosumers.
6 Romania National Report, South Eastern Europe Transnational Cooperation Programme.
In addition, several smart cities proposals are under development in Bucharest and Cluj-Napoca. Its energy efficiency improvement initiative, the Long Term Renovation Strategy (LTRS) aims to promote the renovation of buildings to adopt renewable energy (PV/heat pumps) to achieve national targets.

Figure: Forecast of Total Solar PV Installed Capacity in Romania (in GW) 2020-2030 Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis
Falling prices and supportive policies like Tax credits have led to the rapid growth of the solar industry in the USA. About 19.2 GW of additional PV capacity was added in 2020, making it the largest contributor to total electricity capacity additions in the year.
Solar PV will continue to be an attractive renewable option for the US in the coming decade. Frost & Sullivan expects that a combination of lower project costs, renewable mandates, and corporate PPAs will drive new investment. Annual installations are forecast to increase from 16.2GW in 2020 to 21.9GW in 2030. The cumulative solar PV installed capacity is expected to increase from 93 GW in 2020 to 287.1 GW in 2030.

There is a whole slew of players involved in the Israeli renewables infrastructure ecosystem. The first category is comprised of B2C players involved in institutional and private home installations such as Solaredge. The second category is comprised of B2B or B2G players with small to medium-sized portfolios such as Solpower, Arava Power Company, El-Mor, Ellomay Capital, and Meshek Energy (that primarily deals with kibbutz cooperatives projects and is a partner to Doral). The last category is comprised of B2G players that dominate the large governmental projects arena and have significant portfolios. These prominent players include Doral, Energix (which, like Doral, has a presence in Europe and the US), and Enlight (which has a strong presence in Europe). Prime Energy is highly distinguished by its relatively high percentage of projects' holdings compared to its competitors.
| Company | Market cap NIS million |
Total Portfolio Size (project development phases vary) |
% of holdings |
|---|---|---|---|
| Prime Energy | 449 | 1,380 MW | 95% |
| Solaer | 527 | 3,450 MW |
50% |
| Meshek Energy | 550 | 2,460 MW |
76% |
| Solegreen | 800 | 1,082 MW |
44% |
| Doral | 1,903 | 6,565 MW | 53% |
| Enlight | 6,351 | 17,000 MW |
N/A |
| Energix | 6,437 | 5,400 MW |
N/A |
Other key players who were recently awarded projects in Israel are SoleGreen, Ellomay Capital, EDF Energies Nouvelles Israel Ltd, Meshakim & Partners, Invenergy Israel LLC, OPC Energy LLC, Edelcom Ltd, Edeltech Ltd, Energia, Menora Mivtachim Energy, Solnet roofs, Greentops Neto Ltd, and Shikun & Binui Energy Ltd
Bidding for projects through partnerships with local real estate developers by International players is common. Several companies incorporated in China have been showing interest in entering the market through consortiums.
Intelligent design, yield efficiency, and add-on services, combined with cost competitiveness, are the key differentiating factors for market participants.
Key winners of large scale solar and wind contracts in Europe are Engie (France), Juwi (Denmark), EDF Energy Nouvelles (France), Scatec Solar (Norway), Neoen (France), Enerparc (Denmark), X-Elio (Spain), and Abengoa Solar (Spain) apart from local players.
| ITALY | ROMANIA | USA |
|---|---|---|
| Trisol 81 | Krone Solar | First Solar Inc |
| Enel Green Power | Egnatia Romania | Next Era Energy Resources |
| Eni | Solaico | Cypress Creek Renewables |
| Solar Power IX | Sunshine Solar Energy | Recurrent Energy |
| Sonnedix | Steag solar energy solutions | Sempra US Gas & Power, LLC |
| Sun Edison LLC | ||
| NRG Energy | ||
| 8minuteenergy | ||
| Strata Solar | ||
| sPower (Sustainable Power Group) |
As part of a discounted cash flow (DCF), the accepted method used in financial valuations, several modifications to a company's valuation are made. In general, there are three primary methods within the DCF method:
Prime Energy initiates and develops projects which operate and yield revenue in the long term. Therefore, it can be viewed as property development and holding company with a pipeline of current and future projects. As such, we evaluate Prime Energy based on an NPV of its current projects and possible future projects, including a probability factor using the "pipeline assessment."
Prime Energy's total revenue for H1/2021 amounted to approximately NIS 3.5 million, slightly exceeding the company's total revenue in 2020, which amounted to approximately NIS 3.2 million. This increase in revenue is due to the fact that the systems in the Kadesh Barnea project started operating only in May 2020. In addition, starting the fourth quarter of 2020, the company consolidates the results of its subsidiary KWP.
As of June 30, 2021, the company had 18 MWp installed capacity of PV, 78 MWp of capacity in construction and preparation for construction, 150 MW in advanced development (various licensing stages), plus an extra ~1,204 MWp of additional projects (in different initiation stages) in the company pipeline.
According to its financial report, as of June 30, 2021, Prime Energy's equity was NIS 77.8 million; the company had NIS 48.2 million in cash and loans totaling NIS 50.8 million. On August 12, the company issued convertible bonds in the amount of NIS 79.1 million.
On February 26, 2021, the company issued an IPO prospectus. The company first issued 5,721,020 shares via non-uniform offer to institutional investors, and its shares were listed for trading on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange, thus raising a total of NIS 57.6 million net. The company issued about 19.5% of its share capital, according to a company value of about NIS 310.7 million. Since its IPO, the company's shares have been added to the stock exchange indices: TA Tech-Elite, TA BlueTech Global, TA Technology, TA-Energy Utilities, TA-Cleantech, TA-Growth, TA-All-Share, TA-Rimon.
Prime Energy has disclosed information about 21 clusters of projects, some large-scale and others encompassing numerous standalone projects with medium to low power range, totaling approximately 1,380 MW. These projects are in operations or various stages of development, in three countries (Israel, Italy, and Romania) and in main areas of renewable energy – mostly Solar PV and energy storage. Below is the full scope of Prime Energy's identified and disclosed projects based on information received from the company and based on our analysis:
| Status | Country | Type | MWp | Holdings* % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Project in operation | Israel | PV | 19.55 | 72.3% |
| Project in construction | Israel | PV | 80.8 | 99.3% |
| Projects under license | Israel | PV | 150 | 100.0% |
| Projects Under Development | Israel | PV | 430 | 100.0% |
| Projects in initiation - abroad | Romania | PV | 300 | 100.0% |
| Projects in initiation - abroad | Italy | PV | 400 | 77.5% |
| Total capacity | 1380.4 |
*Holding % was calculated as a weighted average, using projects capacity as weights.
Implemented different success rates for the projects based on stages of operation and financial closing.
Calculated NPV per project, based on Prime Energy's % of holdings in the project (all cost and revenues were allocated based on % of holdings).
We estimate revenues from PV projects will dramatically increase over the coming years as the company will engage in additional large projects. We forecast that Prime Energy's annual revenue rate* by the end of 2022 will be NIS 42.6 million.
As of today, all of Prime Energy's revenues are generated through Israeli facilities. Per the company strategy to expand its operations in Italy and Romania, the EU will become a significant revenue-generating market, as shown in the figure below. We assume that by 2026 total revenues will total NIS 422 million. On the chart below, we display the estimated increase in revenues during the forecast period:

Prime Energy's Annual Revenue Rate* Forecast, 2022-2026, by Geographies (NIS million)
*Representing 100% of projects holdings
Based on the above parameters, we evaluate the company's pipeline at NIS 580.3 million as we present below:
| # | Projects grouped by country | NPV NIS (000) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Israel | 436,707 |
| 2 | EU | 143,573 |
| Total pipeline value | 580,280 |
1 NPV calculation is based on: a) considering company holdings; b) probability parameters.
The pipeline valuation takes into consideration the different stages of each project. Thus, we evaluate Prime Energy's pipeline while accounting for the different stages for each project and based on the grid connection forecasted year.
According to our analysis, we value projects which are in commercial operation at NIS 20.3 million, additional projects that are in construction and/or are due within 1-2 years at NIS 130.9 million, and projects that are due in 3-5 are at NIS 429.1 million, as we show below:

As mentioned, we identified 21 clusters of projects totaling 1,380 MW that are already operating or will commence operation from 2021 to 2026. However, in our view, the company would continue to develop its pipeline further and increase it considerably. We did not consider these projects as they are still in the early stage of development. Thus, we assume an upside to our valuation.
We evaluated Prime Energy's equity value based on 21 clusters of projects within the company's pipeline that the company has identified and disclosed. To the sum of the different projects NPV, we added EPC fees that the company is entitled to receive in any project that completes the financial closing.
On the expenses side, Prime Energy has general and administrative (G&A) expenses. We consider the baseline G&A expenses reported in the company financial reports, assuming an annual increase of NIS 1 million per year until 2024. Them we assumed a 3% annual increase as the company will need to support its progress.
According to the company's financial statement, as of June 30, 2021, the company's share in cash was NIS 48.2 million. On August 12, the company issued convertible bonds in the amount of NIS 79.1 million. We added these as non-operational assets/liabilities. Below is our equity value breakdown:
| Parameter | NIS (000) |
|---|---|
| Total Pipeline (NPV + EPC) | 580,280 |
| G&A expenses | (60,738) |
| EV | 519,542 |
| Non-operating assets/liabilities | |
| Cash + Convertible Bond Proceeds |
125,471 |
| Loans | (79,150) |
| Total non-operating | 46,321 |
Based on the above parameters, we evaluate the company's equity value at NIS 565.9 million. This valuation encompasses an identified project totaling 1,380 MW.
The table below presents Prime Energy's share price target concerning the capitalization rate. We set a range of 0.5% change from our WACC model (see Appendix 1). The company has 29.3 million shares as of September 12, 2021.
| Cap rate | Price target |
|---|---|
| 4.54% | 20.4 |
| 5.04% | 19.3 |
| 5.54% | 18.3 |
We estimate the price target to be in the range of NIS 18.3 to NIS 20.4 with a mean of NIS 19.3.
Cost of equity capital (ke) represents the return required by investors. The capitalization rate is calculated using the CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model). It is based on a long-term 30-year T-bond with a market risk premium and Professor Aswath Damodaran's (NYU) commonly used sample (www.damodaran.com). As of January 8, 2021, the Israeli market risk is estimated at 5.4%.
A three-year market regression Beta is 0.67, according to a sample of 25 companies (at various stages), representing the renewable energy sector (www.damodaran.com). We also add specific risk premiums to the company as a major part of its projects are outside of Israel with different regulatory risks.
Weighted average cost of capital model (WACC) is estimated as follows:
WACC = Rd(1-t)*(D/D+E)+Ke(E/D+E) + ArP {Ke = R(f)+βe*(R(m) R(f))}
The company's financial structure, based on the WACC model, is as follows:
| WACC | Parameter | Data | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Long-term (10 years) T | |||
| bond | R(f) | 2.18% | Rf - Israel treasury bonds - 30 years, as of 05/09/2021 |
| Market risk primium | R(m)- R(f) |
5.40% | based on Damodaran (8/1/2021) - Israel |
| Beta sample - Green & Renewable Energy (Demodaran, 2021), |
|||
| Beta | βe | 0.67 | 25 firms |
| Cost of Capital | Ke | 5.79% | |
| Debt, rate | Rd | 3.0% | Weighted average |
| Debt, Net | D | 79,150 | Prime Energy investors presentation, July 2021 |
| Equity | E | 77,800 | Prime Energy investors presentation, July 2021 |
| Debt + Equity | D+E | 156,950 | |
| Debt (%) | D/(D+E) | 50.43% | Q4 20 financial data |
| Equity(%) | E/(D+E) | 49.57% | Q4 20 financial data |
| Tax | t | 23.00% | |
| Additional Risk Premium | ArP | 1.00% | |
| WACC= Rd(1- | |||
| t)*(D/D+E)+Ke(E/D+E)+ArP+Sp | 5.04% |
We therefore estimate the company`s WACC to be 5.04%.
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Dr. Tiran Rothman is the head of Frost & Sullivan Research & Consulting Ltd., a subsidiary of Frost & Sullivan in Israel. He has over ten years of experience in research and economic analysis of capital and private markets, obtained through positions at a boutique office for economic valuations, chief economist at the AMPAL group, and co-founder and analyst at Bioassociate Biotech Consulting. Dr. Rothman also serves as the Economics & Management School Head at Wizo Academic College (Haifa). Tiran holds a Ph.D. (Economics), MBA (Finance), and was a visiting scholar at Stern Business School, NYU.
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