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Poste Italiane

Investor Presentation Nov 8, 2018

4431_ip_2018-11-08_0107c178-4e82-445c-8991-3d009e501863.pdf

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POSTE ITALIANE 3Q & 9M 2018 FINANCIAL RESULTS

Rome, 8 November 2018

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

BUSINESS REVIEW

CLOSING REMARKS

Q&A

3Q 2018 results on track to meet all Deliver 2022 targets for 2018

Deliver 2022 actions supporting the performance of all segments:

  • Mail, Parcel & Distribution: Joint Delivery Model supporting B2C parcels
  • Payments, Mobile & Digital: creation of Postepay e-money institution
  • Financial Services: growth in third party distribution and improving postal savings, reducing reliance on capital gains
  • Insurance Services: improving mix in Life and P&C products

Solvency ratio benefitting from effective capital management actions

Group dividend up by 5% YoY, as committed to in Deliver 2022

€ m unless otherwise stated

  1. Excludes net capital gains, IFRS 9 impact on Visa, BdM-MCC disposal, IFRS 15 impact; 2. Excludes net capital gains, early retirement incentives and real estate funds provisions.

DELIVER 2022 – PROGRESS UPDATE

Deliver 2022 initiatives well on track and focus is on execution

MANAGING GOVERNMENT BOND VOLATILITY

No operational impact on business or strategic plan targets

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

BUSINESS REVIEW

CLOSING REMARKS

Q&A

OPERATING PROFITABILITY PROGRESSION

EBIT up, mainly supported by Mail, Parcel & Distribution Operating profitability improving thanks to positive revenue contribution from all segments

€ m unless otherwise stated

  1. Excludes net capital gains on investment portfolio, early retirement incentives and real estate funds provisions.

MAIL, PARCEL & DISTRIBUTION PROFITABILITY

Strong mail quartely revenues, parcel growth acceleration

€ m unless otherwise stated

  1. Includes Philately, Patenti Via Poste, Poste Motori, Mistral Air and other revenues; 2. Includes income received from Other Segments in return for use of the distribution network and Corporate Services.

MAIL, PARCEL & DISTRIBUTION VOLUMES

Continued shift from Mail to Parcel with B2C +24% in 9M 2018

AVERAGE PRICE INDEX (base 100) 6 7 18 1 4 3Q 2017 3Q 2018 31 0% +29% +13% -9% 97 3Q 2017 3Q 2018 +5 +17.2% 100 96 9M 2017 9M 2018 21 22 40 50 4 15 4 13 9M 2017 9M 2018 81 89 -5% +24% +4% -18% +8 +9.2%

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

  • Mail volumes decrease related to lower margin products (e.g. direct marketing), while average prices benefitted from repricing since July
  • Parcel volumes positive trend boosted by B2C (+29% in 3Q, +24% in 9M 2018) and recovery of B2B (+13% in 3Q and +4% in 9M)
  • Overall parcel tariff down due to volumes mix effect, with B2C prices up in the 3Q and stable in 9M 2018

PAYMENTS, MOBILE & DIGITAL

Strong progression of revenues and operating profitability

€ m unless otherwise stated

  1. Includes fees from 'bollettino' cashed-in, tax payments slips and money transfer.

FINANCIAL SERVICES

Higher revenues in 9M 2018 more than offsetting lower planned capital gains

€ m unless otherwise stated

  1. Includes revenues from electronic money services, fees for collection and payment services; 2. Includes reported revenues from custody accounts, credit cards, other revenues from distribution of third parties products;

  2. Gross capital gains netted by minus; 4. Based on adjusted revenues from capital gains, IFRS 15 effect and MCC-BdM.

GROUP TOTAL FINANCIAL ASSETS

Resilient business model delivering positive net inflows with strong contribution from retail

€ bn unless otherwise stated

  1. Not including asset under custody; 2. Deposits do not include Repo and Poste Italiane liquidity; 3. Including interests accrued.

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

base

Total financial assets increased by 7bn in 9M

Insurance products +6.4bn of which +0.6bn unit linked and multiasset Class III, thanks to the launch of the new multiassets products in July 2018

Postal savings net inflows significantly improving in 3Q 2018, thanks to new

Deposits +4.8bn supported by Public

Mutual funds +0.4bn despite negative

Administration accounts and resilient retail

commercial initiatives

market conditions

2018, with positive net inflows of 6.8bn:

€ m unless otherwise stated

  1. Average postal savings reported according to the remuneration scheme agreed with CDP, which excludes interests accrued year-to-date and based on a maturity of postal saving books adjusted for an estimate of potential early redemptions.

INSURANCE SERVICES OPERATING RESULTS

Ongoing focus on Private Pension Plan and P&C

€ m unless otherwise stated

NET TECHNICAL PROVISIONS

Positive net inflows in 9M 2018, more than offsetting market effect

€ m unless otherwise stated

  1. Includes non-life technical reserves and net of re-insurance reserves; 2. Includes life protection; 3. Includes interests, upfront fees and other minor items.

SOLVENCY II REQUIREMENTS

Proactive capital management actions supporting Solvency ratio up to a pro-forma fully loaded of ~210%

€ m unless otherwise stated

  1. Retained earnings only related to lower dividends paid by Poste Vita to the parent company in 2018

Measures under regulatory approval Countercyclical and cost effective capital strengthening measure

€ m unless otherwise stated

  1. Includes other expenses from financial activities, capitalised costs and expenses, and other operating costs; 2. Excluding BdM-MCC (0.5 €/m in 3Q 2017 and 34 €/m in 9M 2017); real estate funds provisions (-4 €/m in 3Q 2017, 8 €/m in 3Q 2018, 61 €/m in 9M 2017 and 24 €/m in 9M 2018) and provision for the early repayment of financial products (4 €/m in 3Q 2017 and 16 €/m in 9M 2017).

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

BUSINESS REVIEW

CLOSING REMARKS

Q&A

Well on track to meet all 2018 Deliver 2022 financial and operational targets

Higher revenues across all business segments, better than expected performance in Mail

Continued cost discipline across the Group

Decreased reliance on capital gains

Deliver 2022: a five-year journey made up of many small steps on strategy, costs and revenues aimed at delivering shareholder value – remain focussed on execution

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

BUSINESS REVIEW

CLOSING REMARKS

Q&A

APPENDIX

GROWTH IN PAYMENTS, MOBILE & DIGITAL

Confirmed positive trends of commercial KPIs across all business lines

  1. An innovative electronic tool associated to a single customer, which is enabled through a mobile app to authorize payment transactions.

POSTE ITALIANE DIGITAL FOOTPRINT

Robust growth in digital use

REGISTERED ONLINE USERS STOCK

  1. Source: App stores (iOS and Android); 2. Electronic identification refers to number of ID outstanding; 3. Digital system to monitor parcels' delivery.

GROWTH IN CONSUMER FINANCIAL TRANSACTIONS

# m

GROWTH IN TRACK&TRACE SEARCHES3

CURRENT ACCOUNTS AVERAGE VOLUMES AT A SOUND 58.3BN

Interest income up thanks to higher volumes offsetting lower yields

€ m unless otherwise stated

  1. Includes current accounts, time deposits and repurchase agreements. Not including Poste Italiane's liquidity; 2. Entirely invested in floating rate deposits c/o MEF; 3. Includes business current accounts, PostePay business and other customers debt ; 4. Average yield calculated as interest income and realized net capital gains on average total financial assets; 5. Excludes derivatives.

ASSET MANAGEMENT PROGRESSING

Class III and new products supporting assets under management and fee generation

€ m unless otherwise stated

EoP ASSETS UNDER MANAGEMENT EVOLUTION

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

  • Net inflows of mutual funds +0.4bn in 9M 2018, growing at a faster pace than the market
  • Net inflows of class III and Unit linked products strongly up, in line with Deliver 2022 guidelines
  • Running management fees increasing YoY faster than the assets under management

Net inflows from mutual funds, unit linked and multiasset Class III insurance products

€ m unless otherwise stated

INSURANCE GROSS WRITTEN PREMIUMS MIX UPGRADING

Changing mix within life products, higher GWP from Private Pension Plan and strong P&C

€ m unless otherwise stated

  1. Includes Life Protection.

€ m unless otherwise stated

  1. Includes Life Protection

INSURANCE SERVICES: BREAKDOWN OF PORTFOLIO

Details on portfolio and sensitivity

INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO DURATION

Sep-17 Dec-17 Sep-18 Var. YoY
Unrealised
gains (€/m)
7,840 8,225 1,141 -6,700
Minimum guaranteed
return (Class I) (%)
0.90% 0.88% 0.82% -8bps
Class I return (%) 2.91% 3.03% 2.76% -14bps
  1. Includes also liquidity, UCITS funds and shares with ≤5yrs duration.

Transitional measures subject to regulatory approval

  1. TR = Techinal Reserves

HR COSTS DOWN THANKS TO MAIL, PARCEL & DISTRIBUTION RE-ORGANIZATION

Confirmed track record to manage reduction of headcounts

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

  • HR costs per FTE at 40.8k, in line with 2018 target
  • Average FTE reduction of c.3,300 YoY, more than in the last 3 years
  • Labour costs/FTE benefitting from non-recurring items, costs in line with FY 2018 target

BANCOPOSTA: AN ASSET GATHERER, WITH A LOW RISK BALANCE SHEET

Solid capital ratios including the already announced capital increase

€ m unless otherwise stated

  1. 10.50% Min. CET1 ratio required to distribute earnings (transitionally reduced to 9.25% in 2017 and 9.875% in 2018).

MAIL, PARCEL & DISTRIBUTION NET CASH POSITION

Solid liquidity position and further available undrawn facilities

€ m unless otherwise stated

DETAILS ON INTERCOMPANY REVENUES AND COSTS

Segment flow description: distribution fees 3Q 2018

€ m unless otherwise stated

  • Fees paid by Financial Services Segment in return for use of the distribution network and other Corporate Services 1
  • Fees paid by Insurance Service Segment vs Financial Services in return for use of Group's distribution network 2
  • Fees paid by Payments, Mobile & Digital Segment vs Financial Services Segment in return for use of Group's distribution network 3
  • Fees paid by Financial Services Segment vs Payments, Mobile & Digital Segment in return for product management services 4
  • 5 Fees paid by Mail Parcel & Distribution vs Payments, Mobile & Digital Segment in return of some Corporate Services (TLC)
€m 3Q 2017 3Q 2018 Var. Var.% 9M 2017 9M 2018 Var. Var.%
Total revenues 2,395 2,522 127 5% 7,893 7,951 58 1%
of which:
Mail, Parcel and Distribution 849 828 -21 -2% 2,661 2,589 -72 -3%
Payments, Mobile and Digital 144 163 19 13% 422 470 48 11%
Financial Services 1,069 1,168 99 9% 3,779 3,844 65 2%
Insurance Services 333 363 30 9% 1,031 1,048 17 2%
Total costs 2,066 2,066 0 0% 6,717 6,442 -275 -4%
of which:
Total personnel expenses 1,307 1,305 -2 0% 4,241 4,151 -90 -2%
of which personnel expenses 1,300 1,295 -5 0% 4,229 4,122 -107 -3%
of which early retirement incentives 7 10 3 43% 12 29 17 n.m.
Other operating costs 627 628 1 0% 2,063 1,886 -177 -9%
Depreciation, amortisation and impairments 132 133 1 1% 413 405 -8 -2%
EBIT 329 456 127 39% 1,176 1,509 333 28%
EBIT Margin 14% 18% 15% 19%
Finance income/(costs) and profit/(loss) on investments accounted for
using the equity method
6 21 15 n.m. -69 43 112 n.m.
Profit before tax 335 477 142 42% 1,107 1,552 445 40%
Income tax expense 121 156 35 29% 383 496 113 30%
Profit for the period 214 321 107 50% 724 1,056 332 46%

MAIL, PARCEL & DISTRIBUTION PROFIT & LOSS

€m 3Q 2017 3Q 2018 Var. Var.% 9M 2017 9M 2018 Var. Var.%
Segment revenue 849 828 -21 -2% 2661 2589 -72 -3%
Intersegment revenue 993 1,071 78 8% 3,446 3,526 80 2%
Total revenues 1,842 1,899 57 3% 6,107 6,115 8 0%
Personnel expenses 1,271 1,269 -2 0% 4,109 4,029 -80 -2%
of which personnel expenses 1,265 1,261 -4 0% 4,102 4,010 -92 -2%
of which early retirement incentives 6 8 2 33% 7 19 12 n.m.
Other operating costs 514 497 -17 -3% 1,572 1,482 -90 -6%
Intersegment costs 15 16 1 7% 48 51 3 6%
Total costs 1,800 1,782 -18 -1% 5,729 5,562 -167 -3%
EBITDA 42 117 75 179% 378 553 175 46%
Depreciation, amortisation and impairments 123 124 1 1% 382 376 -6 -2%
EBIT -81 -7 74 91% -4 177 181 n.m.
EBIT MARGIN -4.4% -0.4% -0.1% 2.9%
Finance income/(costs) -12 -3 9 75% -110 -17 93 85%
Profit/(Loss) before tax -93 -10 83 89% -114 160 274 n.m.
Income tax expense -18 10 28 n.m. -13 66 79 n.m.
Profit for the period -75 -20 55 73% -101 94 195 n.m.

PAYMENTS, MOBILE & DIGITAL PROFIT & LOSS

€m 3Q 2017 3Q 2018 Var. Var.% 9M 2017 9M 2018 Var. Var.%
Segment revenue 144 163 19 13% 422 470 48 11%
Intersegment revenue 79 78 -1 -1% 247 243 -4 -2%
Total revenues 223 241 18 8% 669 713 44 7%
Personnel expenses 7 7 0 0% 22 23 1 5%
of which personnel expenses 7 7 0 0% 22 23 1 5%
of which early retirement incentives 0 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0%
Other operating costs 39 43 4 10% 124 128 4 3%
Intersegment costs 124 132 8 6% 364 390 26 7%
Total costs 170 182 12 7% 510 541 31 6%
EBITDA 53 59 6 11% 159 172 13 8%
Depreciation, amortisation and impairments 5 5 0 0% 17 17 0 0%
EBIT 48 54 6 13% 142 155 13 9%
EBIT MARGIN 22% 22% 21% 22%
Finance income/(costs) 3 2 -1 -33% 6 2 -4 -67%
Profit/(Loss) before tax 51 56 5 10% 148 157 9 6%
Income tax expense 14 16 2 14% 41 40 -1 -2%
Profit for the period 37 40 3 8% 107 117 10 9%
€m 3Q 2017 3Q 2018 Var. Var.% 9M 2017 9M 2018 Var. Var.%
Segment revenue 1,069 1,168 99 9% 3,779 3,844 65 2%
Intersegment revenue 253 234 -19 -8% 770 749 -21 -3%
Total revenues 1,322 1,402 80 6% 4,549 4,593 44 1%
Personnel expenses 21 21 0 0% 84 71 -13 -15%
of which personnel expenses 20 19 -1 -5% 79 62 -17 -22%
of which early retirement incentives 1 2 1 100% 5 9 4 80%
Other operating costs 55 70 15 27% 304 217 -87 -29%
Depreciation, amortisation and impairments 0 0 0 0% 1 0 -1 -100%
Intersegment costs 1,058 1,133 75 7% 3,647 3,719 72 2%
Total costs 1,134 1,224 90 8% 4,036 4,007 -29 -1%
EBIT 188 178 -10 -5% 513 586 73 14%
EBIT MARGIN 14% 13% 11% 13%
Finance income/(costs) 1 1 0 0% 5 8 3 60%
Profit/(Loss) before tax 189 179 -10 -5% 518 594 76 15%
Income tax expense 51 44 -7 -14% 147 166 19 13%
Profit for the period 138 135 -3 -2% 371 428 57 15%

INSURANCE SERVICES PROFIT & LOSS

€m 3Q 2017 3Q 2018 Var. Var.% 9M 2017 9M 2018 Var. Var.%
Segment revenue 333 363 30 9% 1,031 1,048 17 2%
Intersegment revenue 0 0 0 n.m. 1 1 0 0%
Total revenues 333 363 30 9% 1,032 1,049 17 2%
Personnel expenses 8 8 0 0% 26 28 2 8%
of which personnel expenses 8 8 0 0% 26 27 1 4%
of which early retirement incentives 0 0 0 0% 0 1 1 0%
Other operating costs 19 18 -1 -5% 63 59 -4 -6%
Depreciation, amortisation and impairments 4 4 0 0% 13 12 -1 -8%
Intersegment costs 128 103 -25 -20% 405 359 -46 -11%
Total costs 159 133 -26 -16% 507 458 -49 -10%
EBIT 174 230 56 32% 525 591 66 13%
EBIT MARGIN 52% 63% 51% 56%
Finance income/(costs) 14 21 7 50% 30 50 20 67%
Profit/(Loss) before tax 188 251 63 34% 555 641 86 15%
Income tax expense 74 86 12 16% 208 224 16 8%
Profit for the period 114 165 51 45% 347 417 70 20%
OPERATIONAL KPI's 3Q 2017 3Q 2018 D% YoY 9M 2017 9M 2018 D% YoY
MAIL PARCELS &
DISTRIBUTION
Mail Volumes
(#m)
Parcels delivered by mailmen(#m)
Parcel
Volumes
(#m)
B2C Revenues
(€m)
697
8.9
26.1
56.6
652
10.9
30.6
73.7
-6.5%
22.5%
17.2%
30.2%
2,324
22.0
81.1
162.2
2,224
30.2
88.6
202.7
-4.3%
37.3%
9.2%
25.0%
PAYMENTS,
MOBILE & DIGITAL
PostePay
cards
(#m)
of which PostePay
Evolution cards (#m)
Total payment
cards
transactions
(#bn)
of which eCommerce
transactions (#m)
PosteMobile
new products
(#m)
Digital e-Wallets
(#m)
17.4
4.4
0.237
39.1
0.248
1.5
19.0
5.9
0.320
48.8
0.241
2.5
9.2%
34.1%
35.0%
24.8%
-2.8%
66.7%
17.4
4.4
0.673
117.0
0.817
1.5
19.0
5.9
0.874
142.0
0.838
2.5
9.2%
34.1%
29.9%
21.4%
2.6%
66.7%
FINANCIAL
SERVICES
Total Financial Assets
-
TFAs
(€/bn)
Product Sales (#m)
Unrealized
gains
(€m)
505
2.1
1,654
513
2.1
-2,690
1.6%
n.m.
n.m.
505
6.0
1,654
513
6.3
-2,690
1.6%
5.0%
n.m.
INSURANCE
SERVICES
Gross
Written
Premiums
(€m)
GWP –
Life (€m)
GWP –
Private Pension
Plan (€m)
GWP –
P&C (€m)
5,307
5,025
249
32
3,856
3,573
237
46
-27.3%
-28.9%
-4.9%
43.6%
16,438
15,596
737
105
12,768
11,878
747
143
-22.3%
-23.8%
1.4%
36.2%

DISCLAIMER

This presentation contains certain forward-looking statements that reflect the Company's management's current views with respect to future events and financial and operational performance of the Company and its subsidiaries. These forward-looking statements are based on Poste Italiane S.p.A.'s current expectations and projections about future events. Because these forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, actual future results or performance may differ materially from those expressed in or implied by these statements due to any number of different factors, many of which are beyond the ability of Poste Italiane S.p.A. to control or estimate precisely, including changes in the regulatory environment, future market developments and other risks. You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the forward-looking statements contained herein, which are made only as of the date of this presentation. Poste Italiane S.p.A. does not undertake any obligation to publicly release any updates or revisions to any forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date of this presentation. This presentation does not constitute a recommendation regarding the securities of the Company. This presentation does not contain an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy any securities issued by Poste Italiane S.p.A. or any of its subsidiaries. Pursuant to art. 154-BIS, par. 2, of the Unified Financial Act of February 24, 1998, the executive in charge of preparing the corporate accounting documents at Poste Italiane S.p.A., Tiziano Ceccarani, declares that the accounting information contained herein corresponds to document results, books and accounting records.

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