AI assistant
PEET LIMITED — Investor Presentation 2015
May 5, 2015
65600_rns_2015-05-05_c58c2abb-a851-4325-beb8-f6bc2ff0d1c8.pdf
Investor Presentation
Open in viewerOpens in your device viewer
Macquarie Australia Conference MAY 2015
1H15 RESULTS OVERVIEW
Strong project performance across all business divisions aided by supportive market conditions
-
» Strong improvement in 1H15 operating profit[1 ] after tax of $17.1m, up 18% (in line with statutory profit)
-
» Strong underlying business performance
-
FY14 Result FY14
-
Revenue up 76% over pcp with 1,456 lots settled Result
-
EBITDA[2 ] up 65% to $45.9m
-
Improvement in EBITDA[2 ] margin to 25%
-
Improvement in ROCE[3 ] to 13%
-
Record contracts on hand of 2,232 valued at $485m
-
»
-
Significant improvement in capital position
-
Strong operating cash flows
-
Gearing[4 ] reduced to 23%
-
Development of existing pipeline self funded through strengthening operating cash flows
-
»
-
Fully franked interim dividend of 1.5cps
Notes:
-
Operating profit is a non-IFRS measure that is determined to present the ongoing activities of the Group in a way that reflects its operating performance. Operating profit includes the effects of non-cash movements in investments in associates and joint ventures. Operating profit excludes unrealised fair value gains/(losses) arising from the effect of revaluing assets and liabilities and adjustments for realised transactions outside the core ongoing business activities.
-
Pre write-downs and includes effects of non-cash movements in investments in associates and joint ventures
-
12 months rolling EBITDA (pre write-down) / (average net debt + average total equity)
-
(Total interest bearing liabilities (including land vendor liabilities) less cash) / (Total assets adjusted for market value of inventory less cash, less intangible assets). Excludes syndicates consolidated under AASB10
==> picture [179 x 38] intentionally omitted <==
MACQUARIE AUSTRALIA CONFERENCE PRESENTATION ǀ MAY 2015 ǀ PAGE 2
KEY ACHIEVEMENTS FOR FY15
-
Acquired interests in seven high quality strategic residential projects
-
New projects comprise more than 4,000 lots/dwellings with GDV[1 ] of circa $1 billion
– FY14 Result FY14 Strong investment partners provide the opportunity to leverage and grow the Funds Management business Result
- Further expansion of the Group’s medium density residential pipeline
ACQUISITIONS
-
Selective acquisition of projects to restock pipeline, predominantly through funds platform
-
Acquisitions/developments to be self-funded through operating cash flows
-
Continued focus on wholesale relationships to pursue further growth opportunities
-
Pipeline of approximately 50,000 lots providing visibility of future earnings
-
New Victorian retail land syndicate launched in March closed significantly oversubscribed
-
Approximately 20% of the applications received were from new investors further strengthening the Group’s
RETAIL SYNDICATES
investor base
-
Approximately 40% of the units applied for were from east coast investors
-
Expect to achieve pre-sales before 30 June 2015
Notes: 1. Gross Development Value
==> picture [179 x 38] intentionally omitted <==
MACQUARIE AUSTRALIA CONFERENCE PRESENTATION ǀ MAY 2015 ǀ PAGE 3
KEY ACHIEVEMENTS FOR FY15
MEDIUM DENSITY
-
More than 450 apartments either settled, under construction or in the design phase
-
Initial pipeline of approximately 1,700 units/apartments identified across national portfolio
Result
- Strong 1H15 net operating cash flow of $65m
CASH FLOW
-
Cash and available facilities of over $90m at December 2014
-
Significantly improved capital position
CAPITAL
MANAGEMENT
-
Gearing at lower end of target range of 20% - 30%
-
• Net debt of $188m – down 39% on 1H14 ($306m)
-
Interest cover up strongly to 3.3x
==> picture [179 x 38] intentionally omitted <==
MACQUARIE AUSTRALIA CONFERENCE PRESENTATION ǀ MAY 2015 ǀ PAGE 4
Operational update
==> picture [179 x 38] intentionally omitted <==
3Q15 OPERATIONAL UPDATE
Peet remains on track to settle over 3,400 residential lots in FY15, with a total of 2,300 lots settled to date
-
» The demand for housing continued to drive solid performance particularly across the east coast with over $450 million contracts on hand as at 31 March 2015
-
FY14 Result FY14
-
» The business continued to focus on delivering its quality residential pipeline in the core metropolitan markets of Melbourne, Result
-
Perth, and Brisbane
-
» Key highlights across the business include:
-
Continued solid sales across all Melbourne projects and the acquisition of circa 1000 lots during 3Q15
-
Targeting early pre-sales launch before the end of June 2015 for new Tarneit (VIC) syndicate project
-
Successful sales release of Oakford (WA), with Stage 1 sold out and 90% of Stage 2 sold out ahead of programme, Stage 3 release has been brought forward to meet demand
-
Strong sales at Googong (NSW/ACT), Lightsview (SA), The Heights (NT), Wellard (WA) and Golden Bay (WA)
-
Continued demand for Wellard (WA) apartments with Stage 1 settled, Stage 2 sold out and Stage 3 now released.
-
First stage of Shorehaven (Alkimos WA) Waterfront apartments 90% pre-sold and due to commence construction 4Q15
-
Subdivisional approval for the first 700 lots at Flagstone City (QLD) with approval for a further 1,200 lots expected by the end of the 2015 calendar year
==> picture [179 x 38] intentionally omitted <==
MACQUARIE AUSTRALIA CONFERENCE PRESENTATION ǀ MAY 2015 ǀ PAGE 6
CONTRACTS ON HAND
-
» Strong number of contracts on hand[1] driven by stable and improving east coast market conditions provides ongoing momentum into 4Q15
-
Large number of settlements achieved in March 2015 quarter, particularly WA
-
Increased number of contracts on hand from Vic and SA as a result of strong sales during the quarter
-
Development revenue expected to remain strong in 2H15 as lots under contract settle
CONTRACTS ON HAND BY LOTS
==> picture [281 x 183] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
2500
2,184
2,232
2,111
1,990
2000
1500
1000
500
0
30 June 2014 31 Dec 2014 31 Mar 2015
1
Lots
----- End of picture text -----
CONTRACTS ON HAND BY VALUE
-
» Two new projects expected to commence development during late 2H15
-
Flagstone City (Qld)
-
Tarneit (Vic)
Notes:
- Includes equivalent lots
==> picture [273 x 183] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
600
$468m $485m
500 $454m
400
300
200
100
0
30 June 2014 31 Dec 2014 31 Mar 2015
VIC QLD NSW SA ACT NT WA
1
Contract value millions
----- End of picture text -----
- Includes GST
==> picture [179 x 38] intentionally omitted <==
MACQUARIE AUSTRALIA CONFERENCE PRESENTATION ǀ MAY 2015 ǀ PAGE 7
NEW PROJECTS IN FY15 - FY17
Pipeline of approximately 50,000 lots providing visibility of future earnings
-
» Up to 10 new projects expected to commence development within the next 2-3 years FY14 Result FY14
-
Result
-
−More than 90% of the lots in these projects sit within the Funds Management business
-
−This represents approximately 40% of existing pipeline
-
−Average project duration of 9 years providing visibility of future earnings and cash flows
-
» Over 80% of entire land bank is expected to be in development by end of FY17
| FY15-FY17 PROJECT RELEASE SCHEDULE | FY15-FY17 PROJECT RELEASE SCHEDULE | FY15-FY17 PROJECT RELEASE SCHEDULE | FY15-FY17 PROJECT RELEASE SCHEDULE | FY15-FY17 PROJECT RELEASE SCHEDULE | FY15-FY17 PROJECT RELEASE SCHEDULE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Project | State | Segment | First Sales | Lots | Project Life (Years) |
|
| Oakford | WA | Funds |
2015 |
1,060 |
10yrs |
|
| Mt Barker | SA | Funds |
2015 |
845 |
8yrs |
|
| Botanic Village | VIC |
Funds |
2016 |
783 |
6yrs |
|
| Flagstone City | QLD |
Funds |
2016 |
11,767 |
25yrs+ |
|
| Forrestdale | WA | Funds |
2016 |
997 |
8yrs |
|
| Midvale | WA | Funds |
2016 |
613 |
5yrs |
|
| Tarneit | VIC | Funds |
2016 |
300 |
4yrs |
|
| Rockbank | VIC | Owned |
2017 |
557 |
5yrs |
|
| Mundijong | WA | Funds |
2017 |
852 |
8yrs |
|
| Werribee | VIC | Owned |
2017 |
961 |
7yrs |
|
| Total 18,735 Ave: 9 yrs |
-
» Land portfolio well balanced across key growth corridors
-
» Since 1H15 results announcement
-
−Oakford has commenced pre-sales to the public
-
−Expect first pre-sales for Tarneit will be brought forward into 2015
==> picture [179 x 38] intentionally omitted <==
MACQUARIE AUSTRALIA CONFERENCE PRESENTATION ǀ MAY 2015 ǀ PAGE 8
Business Strategy
==> picture [179 x 38] intentionally omitted <==
GROUP BUSINESS MODEL
| Target EBIT Composition |
Sources of Revenue Capital Employed2 Land Bank Land Bank Diversification by Geography (%)1 Target EBIT Margin |
Sources of Revenue Capital Employed2 Land Bank Land Bank Diversification by Geography (%)1 Target EBIT Margin |
Sources of Revenue Capital Employed2 Land Bank Land Bank Diversification by Geography (%)1 Target EBIT Margin |
Sources of Revenue Capital Employed2 Land Bank Land Bank Diversification by Geography (%)1 Target EBIT Margin |
Sources of Revenue Capital Employed2 Land Bank Land Bank Diversification by Geography (%)1 Target EBIT Margin |
Sources of Revenue Capital Employed2 Land Bank Land Bank Diversification by Geography (%)1 Target EBIT Margin |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Diversification by **Geography (%)1 ** |
Land Bank | ||||||
| 40% – 50% EBIT 50% – 60% EBIT |
20%-25% Development |
35 40 24 37 40 22 1 1 VIC QLD WA CIC FY14 1H15 |
Lots: 12,852 GDV ($bn): 2.7 # Projects: 27 |
$385m | » Development profit | ||
| 60%-70% FM3 Retail Wholesale |
9 39 40 8 38 40 14 12 VIC QLD WA CIC FY14 1H15 |
Lots: 15,170 GDV ($bn): 3.3 # Projects: 32 |
$359m | » Underwriting and capital raising fees » Project management fees » Performance fees » Profit shares |
|||
| Lots: 21,009 GDV ($bn): 5.4 # Projects: 7 |
|||||||
| Notes: | Lots: 49,031 GDV ($bn): 11.4 # Projects: 66 |
$855m4 |
Notes:
-
Based on number of lots
-
Balance sheet assets at cost as at 31 December 2014
-
Includes joint ventures
-
Includes $111m of unallocated assets & cash
==> picture [179 x 38] intentionally omitted <==
MACQUARIE AUSTRALIA CONFERENCE PRESENTATION ǀ MAY 2015 ǀ PAGE 10
CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
Significant improvement in capital position
COMMENTARY
CAPITAL EMPLOYED ($M)[1] AND ROCE[2 ]
-
» Sustained increase in ROCE 2,184
-
−Active management of land bank with view to increase ROCE
-
−Increase in ROCE through increasing use of capital efficient structures
-
» Reduction in debt of ~30% vs. last 3 years
-
−Within target gearing range of 20-30%
-
−Declining cost of debt
-
» Significant strengthening of interest coverage to 3.3x
-
» Cash and available facilities of over $90m at Dec-14
==> picture [331 x 27] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
NET DEBT ($M) AND COVENANT GEARING [3]
Net Debt Covenant gearing
----- End of picture text -----
==> picture [264 x 168] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
Development Projects Funds Management Total ROCE
729 750 744
644
303 325 359
224
420 426 424 385
11.0% 13.0%
9.0% 8.7%
FY12 FY13 FY14 1H FY15
----- End of picture text -----
INTEREST COVER AND WEIGHTED COST OF DEBT
==> picture [168 x 9] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
Interest Cover Weighted Cost of Debt
----- End of picture text -----
==> picture [308 x 142] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
285
271
257
188
40%
34%
30%
23%
FY12 FY13 FY14 1H FY15
Notes:
----- End of picture text -----
==> picture [261 x 137] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
3.3x
2.8x
8.5% 8.3%
7.7% 7.7%
1.6x 1.7x
FY12 FY13 FY14 1H FY15
----- End of picture text -----
-
1 Development projects and Funds Management/JV only
-
2 Rolling 12 month EBITDA / (average net debt + average total equity)
-
3 (Total interest bearing liabilities (including land vendor liabilities) less cash) / (Total assets adjusted for market value of inventory less cash, less intangible assets). Excluding syndicates consolidated under AASB10)
==> picture [179 x 38] intentionally omitted <==
MACQUARIE AUSTRALIA CONFERENCE PRESENTATION ǀ MAY 2015 ǀ PAGE 11
FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE
Growth in earnings via improvement in margins and ROCE
COMMENTARY
-
» Operating Profit After Tax 3-year CAGR of 23.2%, boosted by acquisition of CIC 1,990
-
» Ongoing EBITDA margin improvement to be driven by improved gross margin through net price growth, cost efficiencies and greater impact of high margin projects
-
−Focused on further improvement in EBITDA margins
OPERATING PROFIT AFTER TAX ($M)
EBITDA MARGIN
==> picture [261 x 167] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
38.0
31.6
20.3
18.3
17.1
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E
----- End of picture text -----
==> picture [261 x 132] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
31.7%
24.8% 24.9%
22.0%
FY12 FY13 FY14 1H FY15
----- End of picture text -----
==> picture [179 x 38] intentionally omitted <==
MACQUARIE AUSTRALIA CONFERENCE PRESENTATION ǀ MAY 2015 ǀ PAGE 12
CASH FLOW
CASH FLOW PRE AND POST ACQUISITIONS ($M)
==> picture [353 x 240] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
73.2 74.2
64.8
69.7
50.0 65.4
36.4
37.2
32.6 15.9
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 1H FY15
(8.6)
(62.2)
----- End of picture text -----
Operating Cash Flow (before acquisitions)
Operating Cash Flow (post acquisitions)
-
» Development of existing pipeline to be self-funded through operating cash flows
-
» Disciplined execution of capital management strategy to reduce cash flow needs
-
−Majority of land bank now in Funds Management or capital efficient structures
-
» Continued reweighting of business to Funds Management increasing earnings contribution of development and sales management fees
==> picture [179 x 38] intentionally omitted <==
MACQUARIE AUSTRALIA CONFERENCE PRESENTATION ǀ MAY 2015 ǀ PAGE 13
Market overview and outlook
==> picture [179 x 38] intentionally omitted <==
==> picture [179 x 38] intentionally omitted <==
MACQUARIE AUSTRALIA CONFERENCE PRESENTATION ǀ MAY 2015 ǀ PAGE 15
RESIDENTIAL MARKET OVERVIEW
Monetary policy continues to encourage home building activity although market conditions continue to be mixed
| COMMENTARY | ||
|---|---|---|
| WA % of land bank: FM/JV - 38% Company owned – 37% |
» Sales volumes moderated in Western Australia during 1H15 −Lower iron ore price −Transition from the construction phase of major resource projects » Expectations are for a continued solid contribution from WA overall in FY15 −Sales prices have stabilised in line with a market in or around equilibrium −Continued population growth – off a high base but trending above the long term average −Still solid levels of employment – unemployment rate below the national average −New WA projects to be launched targeting the affordable corridor in Perth’s eastern suburbs » Peet’s WA business is strongly focussed on the affordable sector −Approximately 60% of new land sales in WA < $240,000 −WA’s median lot price is approximately $234,000 −First Home Owner Grants for new dwellings rose by approximately 9% in March |
|
| VIC % of land bank: FM/JV - 8% Company-owned – 40% |
» Strong population growth in Victoria has supported increased activity in the residential housing market and price growth is also positive. We anticipate these conditions to continue over the remainder of FY15 and into FY16 |
==> picture [179 x 38] intentionally omitted <==
MACQUARIE AUSTRALIA CONFERENCE PRESENTATION ǀ MAY 2015 ǀ PAGE 16
RESIDENTIAL MARKET OVERVIEW
Monetary policy continues to encourage home building activity although market conditions continue to be mixed
COMMENTARY
NSW/ACT
==> picture [87 x 45] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
% of land bank:
FM/JV - 7%
Company-owned –
1%
----- End of picture text -----
SA
==> picture [87 x 44] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
% of land bank:
FM/JV - 5%
Company-owned –
0%
----- End of picture text -----
QLD
% of land bank: FM/JV - 40% Company-owned – 22%
-
» The ACT and adjoining NSW markets continue to perform well where the Group has a reduced exposure following the completion of both the Crace joint venture and Quayside apartment project
-
» The South Australian residential property market is expected to continue in recovery mode with increased interest from buyers in the affordable and middle segments, boosted by continued low interest rates
-
» Activity in the Queensland residential market is increasing (though coming off historic low levels) and there has been an improvement in affordability, relative to other eastern states and conditions are expected to improve, despite a fall in investment in the mining sector
==> picture [179 x 38] intentionally omitted <==
MACQUARIE AUSTRALIA CONFERENCE PRESENTATION ǀ MAY 2015 ǀ PAGE 17
OUTLOOK
Portfolio well positioned for sustainable long term growth and value creation
» Outlook supported by market fundamentals
-
Favourable market conditions across the Melbourne market
-
WA sales have moderated with sales prices stabilising
-
Qld results to improve on the back of Flagstone City commencing development in late 2H15
» Peet’s key focuses to remain
-
Accelerating production where possible and active management of product mix
-
Actively managing landbank with a view to increasing ROCE
-
Development spend to be self-funded through operating cash flows
-
Further improvement in EBITDA margins
-
Selective acquisition of projects to restock pipeline, predominantly through funds management platform
» Well positioned to deliver more than 3,400 settlements in FY15
-
» The Group’s balance sheet remains strong and gearing is expected to remain at the lower end of the target range at financial year end
-
» Subject to a continuation of current market conditions and the timing of lot settlements, the Group is anticipating FY15 operating net profit after tax in the order of $38 million
==> picture [179 x 38] intentionally omitted <==
MACQUARIE AUSTRALIA CONFERENCE PRESENTATION ǀ MAY 2015 ǀ PAGE 18
Thank you
==> picture [179 x 38] intentionally omitted <==
DISCLAIMER
While every effort is made to provide accurate and complete information, Peet does not warrant or represent that the information in this presentation is free from errors or omissions or is suitable for your intended use. This presentation contains forward-looking statements, including statements regarding future earnings and distributions that are based on information and assumptions available to Peet as at the date of this presentation. Actual results performance or achievements could be significantly different from those expressed in, or implied by these forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are not guarantees or predictions of future performance, and involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, many of which are beyond Peet’s control, and which may cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in the statements contained in the release.
The information provided in this presentation may not be suitable for your specific needs and should not be relied upon by you in substitution of you obtaining independent advice. Subject to any terms implied by law and which cannot be excluded, Peet accepts no responsibility for any loss, damage, cost or expense (whether direct or indirect) incurred by you as a result of any error, omission or misrepresentation in this presentation. All information in this presentation is subject to change without notice.
This presentation is not an offer or an invitation to acquire Peet securities or any other financial products in any jurisdictions, and is not a prospectus, product disclosure statement or other offering document under Australian law or any other law. It is for information purposes only.
==> picture [179 x 38] intentionally omitted <==
MACQUARIE AUSTRALIA CONFERENCE PRESENTATION ǀ MAY 2015 ǀ PAGE 20