ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED — Earnings Release 2019

Aug 21, 2019

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To	Company Announcements Office		Facsimile	1300 135 638
Company	ASX Limited		Date	22 August 2019
From	Helen Hardy		Pages	56
Subject	Presentation to Analysts and Financial	Markets

Please find attached a release on the above subject.

Regards

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Helen Hardy Company Secretary 02 8345 5000

Origin Energy Limited ABN 30 000 051 696 • Level 32, Tower 1, 100 Barangaroo Avenue, Barangaroo, NSW 2000 GPO Box 5376, Sydney NSW 2001 • Telephone (02) 8345 5000 • Facsimile (02) 9252 9244• www.originenergy.com.au

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Origin Energy 2019 Full Year Results Year ended 30 June 2019

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Frank Calabria , CEO and Lawrie Tremaine , CFO 22 August 2019

Outline

1. Performance Highlights

2. Frank Calabria

3. Financial Review

4. Lawrie Tremaine

5. Operational Review

6. Frank Calabria

7. Outlook

8. Frank Calabria

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2019 Full Year Results Announcement

2

22 August 2019

Performance Highlights

Frank Calabria, CEO

FY2019 financial highlights

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Statutory Profit
$1,211
million
(68.8cps)
333% increase on FY2018 [1]
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Underlying Profit $1,028 million (58.4cps)

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42% increase on FY2018 [1]
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Operating Cash Flow
$1,325
million
35% increase on FY2018 [1]
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Underlying ROCE 9.1% 1.4% increase on FY2018[1]

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Adjusted Net Debt
$5.4
billion
$1.1 billion decrease from June-18
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Final dividend
15
cps
Fully franked
25 cps full year
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• 1) FY2018 represents continuing operations and, for comparability, is restated to include premiums relating to certain electricity hedges within underlying earnings ($160 million pre-tax)

2019 Full Year Results Announcement

22 August 2019

4

We are committed to our stakeholders

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Getting energy right Caring about Keeping our people
for customers our impact safe & engaged
Strategic NPS Regional procurement spend as TRIFR
% of total spend 5
FY18 FY19
- 15% 4
3
(5) 10%
2
(10) 5% The right customer solutions 1
0% -
(15) FY18 FY19 FY18 FY19
23 Customer Interaction NPS Renewable + storage as % of total owned and contracted Staff engagement
generation capacity 64
22 20% 62
60
15% 58
21 10% 56
54
5%
52
20 0% 50
FY18 FY19 FY18 FY19 FY18 FY19
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TRIFR: Total recordable Injury Frequency Rate NPS: Net Promoter Score

2019 Full Year Results Announcement

22 August 2019

5

Supporting our customers and communities

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Customers

Communities

• Putting customers first by going beyond regulatory requirements and providing continued hardship support

• Co-founder of the Energy Charter to embed an industry-wide customercentric culture

• Best Workplace to Give Back in 2019 (GoodCompany)

• Origin Foundation supporting education programs to empower young Australians - $1.5 million to initiatives in FY19 ($25.2 million since 2010)

• Increasing supply of baseload electricity and gas to support reliability and affordability

• Advocating for the right policy settings to produce good customer outcomes

• $750,000 given to programs and activities in our local communities

• ‘Live local’ initiatives in APLNG, supporting local Queensland communities

• Launched ‘Stretch’ Reconciliation Action Plan

2019 Full Year Results Announcement

6

22 August 2019

Strategy to deliver value in a future energy world

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Connecting customers to the energy and technologies of the future

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•
Accelerate towards clean energy
•
The right Low cost operator developing &
energy growing gas resources
•
The right Embracing a decentralised and
technologies digital future
The right
customer • Leading customer experience
solutions and solutions
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Underpinned by a commitment to capital discipline

2019 Full Year Results Announcement

22 August 2019

7

Our strategies in action

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e
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Accelerate towards clean energy

Low cost operator developing & growing gas resources

Embracing a decentralised and digital future

Leading customer experience and solutions

• Target > 25% renewables • APLNG + storage capacity by ‒ Target ~US$35/boe 2020 APLNG distribution breakeven

• Generation flexibility supporting renewables

• Exploration upside

• Fast-start gas

• Scale the low cost model and capability

• Pumped hydro

• Beetaloo Basin

• ‒

• Competitive gas supply Growing other onshore portfolio unconventional resources

• Advanced analytics and digital capabilities to improve customer experience, safety, reliability and efficiency in our operations

• Platform to connect decentralised assets and data to customers

• New “connected” business models in front of and behind the meter

• Transform the customer experience - Simple, seamless, effortless

• Target market leading cost position

• $100m cost out by FY2021 on track

• Grow new revenue streams

• Centralised Energy Services

• Solar & storage

• Broadband

2019 Full Year Results Announcement

8

22 August 2019

Continued focus on shareholder value

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Delivering on commitments

Balancing growth and returns

• Transforming culture

• Disciplined capital allocation

• Simplified portfolio

  • Executing growth options

• Step change in cash generation

• Rebasing cost structure

• Operating assets performing well

• Target capital structure achieved

• Dividends recommenced

• Growing resource position

• Progressing generation opportunities

• Growing solar and centralised energy services

• Investing in technology connecting customers to energy platforms of the future

• Shareholder distribution policy announced

2019 Full Year Results Announcement

9

22 August 2019

Dividend policy

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• Sustainable shareholder distributions through the business cycle

• Target an ordinary dividend payout range of 30% to 50% of free cash flow per annum

• Free cash flow - cash from operating activities and investing activities (excluding major growth projects), less interest paid.

• Remaining cash flow - applied to further debt reduction, value accretive organic growth, acquisition opportunities and/or additional capital management initiatives

• Board discretion to adjust shareholder distributions for economic conditions

FY2019 final dividend

Ex-dividend date: 2 September 2019 Dividend pay date: 27 September 2019 Amount: 15 cps Franking: 100%

• The DRP will operate at nil discount and the company will purchase shares on market to satisfy the DRP

2019 Full Year Results Announcement

10

22 August 2019

Financial Review

Lawrie Tremaine, CFO

FY2019 financial highlights

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Statutory Profit [1]
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$1,211M
68.8 cps
$280M
15.9 cps
FY18 FY19
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Underlying Profit [1,2]
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$1,028M
$726M 58.4 cps
41.3 cps
FY18 FY19
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Underlying EBITDA [1]
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$3,232M
$2,787M
FY18 FY19
Corporate Energy Markets Integrated Gas
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Underlying ROCE [1]
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Free Cash Flow [3]
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Adjusted Net Debt
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9.1% $1,955M $6,529M
$1,539M $5,417M
7.7%
FY18 FY19
Origin excl. disposals
FY18 FY19 Disposals FY18 FY19
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• 1) FY2018 represents continuing operations and, for comparability, is restated to include premiums relating to certain electricity hedges within Underlying earnings ($160 million pre-tax)

• 2) Underlying Profit includes legacy site restoration provision (FY2019: $170 million pre-tax; FY2018: $70 million pre-tax) 3) Free Cash Flow is defined as cash from operating activities and investing activities (excluding major growth projects), less interest paid.

2019 Full Year Results Announcement

12

22 August 2019

Underlying profit increased 42%

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Movements in Underlying Profit ($m)

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(77) 52
(119) 116
408
(77)
1,028
726
Higher APLNG- Legacy site Debt reduction,
commodity related provision reduced interest
prices hedging increase margin
FY18 EM EBITDA Share of IG - Other Corporate Net financing Tax / Other FY19
APLNG Profit EBITDA EBITDA costs
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2019 Full Year Results Announcement

13

22 August 2019

Energy Markets Underlying EBITDA down 5%

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Movements in Underlying EBITDA ($m)

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(154) 66 15 (4)
1,651 1,574
FY18 1 Electricity Gas Cost to serve Other FY19
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	FY2019	**FY2018 **	Change
Underlying EBITDA ($m)	1,574 1,651 (77)
Electricity Volumes sold (TWh) Gross Profit ($m) Gross Profit($/MWh)	36.2 37.5 (1.4) 1,390 1,544 (154) 38.4 41.2 (2.8)
Gas External volumes sold (PJ) Gross Profit ($m) Gross Profit($/GJ)	222.0 214.4 7.5 715 649 66 3.2 3.0 0.2

Electricity gross profit down 10% to $1,390 million:

• Price relief measures (-$100 million) and competition/discounting (-$80 million)

• Lower volume - customer numbers and usage (-$41 million)

• Partially offset by record output at Eraring and market reprice of large Business sales (+$67 million)

Gas gross profit up 10% to $715 million:

• Higher volumes from short-term sales to wholesale customers (+$22 million)

• Higher Business margins reflecting market driven pricing (+$44 million)

• 1) FY2018 represents continuing operations and, for comparability, is restated to include premiums relating to certain electricity hedges within underlying earnings ($160 million pre-tax)

2019 Full Year Results Announcement

22 August 2019

14

Integrated Gas Underlying EBITDA up 51%

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Movements in Underlying EBITDA ($m)

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22 (16) (77)
688
24
1,892
Share of APLNG Integrated Gas
1,251 (+$718 million) Other
(-$77 million)
FY181 LNG Volume LNG Price Domestic Opex and Oil & LNG FY19
Revenue other income hedging /
Origin costs
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Share of APLNG EBITDA up 51% to $2,123 million:

• Average realised LNG export price up 40% to A$13.42/GJ

	FY2019	FY20181	**Change **
- Share of APLNG ($m) - Integrated Gas Other ($m) Underlying EBITDA ($m)	2,123 1,405 718 (231) (154) (77) 1,892 1,251 641

APLNG 100%

Sales volumes (PJ) - Domestic Gas - LNG Realised price (A$/GJ) - Natural Gas - LNG	195 205 (10) 481 475 7 5.04 4.50 0.54 13.42 9.60 3.82

• Higher royalties, partially offset by realised unit cost savings

Integrated Gas (Other) -$231 million comprises:

• Hedging costs related to oil ($115 million) and LNG ($84 million)

• Origin net overhead costs of $32 million

• 1) FY2018 represents continuing operations

2019 Full Year Results Announcement

22 August 2019

15

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Strong cash flow and improved returns

($m)	FY2019	FY2019	FY20181	Change	Change
Cash from operating activities 1,325 983					342
Distributions from APLNG 974 287 687 Capital expenditure (341) (318) (23) (Acquisitions)/disposals (46) 1,475 (1,521) Net interest paid (373) (472) 99 Free cash flow 1,539 1,955 (416)		974 287 687

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Underlying ROCE [2]
13.6%
12.2%
10.9%
9.1%
7.7%
8.2%
4.9% 4.1%
1.3%
FY17 FY18 FY19
Origin Energy Markets Integrated Gas
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• Operating cashflow up 35% to $1,325 million

• Energy Markets working capital (+$162 million)

• Futures exchange collateral (+$295 million)

• Capital expenditure prudently managed

• Sustained improvement in Origin returns

• Underpinned by business performance and positive commodity price environment

• Net cash from APLNG up 160% to $943 million

($m)	($m)	**FY2019 **	FY2018	FY2018
Distribution from APLNG - Investing cash flow	974 287
Loan (repayment)/proceeds - Financing cash flow (31) 76
Net cash from APLNG 943 363

• 1) FY2018 cashflow has been restated to reflect a reclassification of movements in futures exchange collateral balances to operating cash flow, previously in financing cash flows (FY2019: $125 million inflow; FY2018: $170 million outflow)

• 2) FY2018 represents continuing operations and, for comparability, is restated to include premiums relating to certain electricity hedges within underlying earnings ($160 million pre-tax)

2019 Full Year Results Announcement

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22 August 2019

Proportionate free cash flow of $2 billion in FY2019

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Proportionate Free Cash Flow [1] Proportionate Free Cash Flow Yield [2]
3,000 - excluding disposals
20%
2,500
CAGR
162%
2,000 15% 15%
1,500
10%
1,000 8%
5%
500
2%
- 0%-
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY17 FY18 FY19
Origin – excl. share of APLNG and disposals
Share of APLNG
Disposals
A$M
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• Proportionate free cash flow represents the cash available across Origin and share of APLNG cash flow available to pay down debt, reinvest in growth and deliver shareholder returns

• 1) FY2017 and FY2018 represents continuing operations. Free cash flow defined as cash from operating and investing activities (excluding major growth projects), less interest paid (prepared on the basis of proportionate consolidation of APLNG).

• 2) Free Cash Flow Yield based 30 day VWAP for Origin of $7.48 per share at 20 August 2019

2019 Full Year Results Announcement

22 August 2019

17

Target capital structure achieved

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Adjusted Net Debt / Adjusted
6 x
Underlying EBITDA
5 x
4 x
3 x
Target (2.5 - 3.0x) 2.6x
2 x
FY17 FY18 FY19
Target Debt/EBITDA
Adjusted Net Debt
10
8.1
8
6.5 5.4
5.4
6
4
2
0
Jun-17 Jun-18 Jun-19
A$b
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• Debt reduced by $2.7 billion over two years from cash flow and asset sales

• Target credit rating achieved: BBB (stable) / Baa2 (stable)

• $1.4 billion hybrid repayment in September 2019 will reduce FY2020 interest paid by $60 million

• Planned refinancing targeting further interest cost reductions and maturity extension

• $231 million sale of Ironbark to APLNG completed on 5 August which will further reduce debt in FY2020

2019 Full Year Results Announcement

18

22 August 2019

APLNG is deleveraging

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Project Finance Net Debt[1] Balance and Gearing

• US$1.6 billion debt repaid since January 2016 - adding to equity value

• • 30% gearing[[2]] at June 2019

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10 45%
• 30% gearing [[2]] at June 2019
8 40%
•
Deleveraging at US$500 ~US$600
million p.a. over next 5 years
6 35%
•
Refinanced US$4.5 billion in FY2019
with lower interest cost and principal
4 8.3 7.6 30% amortisation deferred
6.6
5.8 – ~A$100 million p.a. higher cash higher cash
2 25% distribution to Origin over the period
FY2020-FY2025
0 20% •
FY2020 APLNG estimated average
Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 Jun-19 interest rate ~3.6%
Net Debt (LHS) Gearing (RHS)
US$b
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• ~A$100 million p.a. higher cash higher cash distribution to Origin over the period FY2020-FY2025

• 2) Gearing is defined as project finance net debt to project finance net debt plus equity

1) Project finance net debt is defined as project finance debt less cash

2019 Full Year Results Announcement

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22 August 2019

Disciplined capital allocation framework

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1 Debt service
Capital expenditure
2
(excluding major growth)
Dividend
3
(30-50% free cash flow [1] )
Debt Major growth Surplus cash
4 returns to
reduction projects
shareholders
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1) Free cash flow is defined as cash from operating activities and investing activities (excluding major growth projects), less interest paid. 20 22 August 2019 2019 Full Year Results Announcement

Operational Review

Frank Calabria, CEO

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Energy Markets

Strong generation and gas performance

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Eraring output Natural Gas external sales Customer activity
(‘000s)
18 250 3,000
16
2,500
14 200
12 2,000
150
10
1,500
8
100
6 1,000
4
50
500
2
- - -
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19
Wins Retains
TWh PJ
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• Record output at Eraring

• Continued growth in gas

• Customer activity moderating

2019 Full Year Results Announcement

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22 August 2019

35

30

25

20

15

10

Flexible portfolio a competitive strength

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45 40

5

Natural Gas sales (PJ)

Electricity sources and uses (TWh)

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Short Losses
Position Generation
Swap
Contracts Business
Other
Business -
Gas Wholesale
Owned and
contracted
Coal generation Business -
(Eraring) C&I
Retail
Renewables Retail
(inc Solar FiT)
FY18 FY19 FY19 FY18 FY19
Sources Uses
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• Record Eraring output, higher renewable supply and lower gas-fired generation output

• Gas redirected from generation to wholesale customers, partly offset by C&I customer losses, and lower retail volumes in Victoria

2019 Full Year Results Announcement

24

22 August 2019

Accelerating to clean energy

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Responding to a changing market, progressing opportunities in a disciplined way

Stockyard Hill (contracted PPA) 530 MW planned to be online by 2020 Quarantine Power Station Unit 1 fast-start repower now commissioned and unit 2 expected 2020 Expansion option for 3 new turbines (55 MW additional capacity per turbine)

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476 MW
new renewable
supply online
FY2019
Mortlake Power Station
Option for additional gas turbines and
adjacent grid scale battery
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Darling Downs Power Station Option for site expansion Eraring Flexible operations projects to support renewable penetration Additional transmission available to support battery storage options

Shoalhaven Pump Hydro Potential expansion of generation capacity by 235 MW Feasibility to be completed 2019

Existing generation Contracted renewable PPAs

2019 Full Year Results Announcement

25

22 August 2019

Gas portfolio underpinned by strong supply

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Energy Markets East Coast Gas supply
PJ
300
Short term volumes purchased to
match duration of C&I sales contracts
250
200
150
100 Longer term supply
volumes
50
0
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
APLNG legacy contract Fixed Price
Oil linked Price review/market
Short-term (at market) Contracted demand excluding generation
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• ~40PJ p.a. fixed price legacy contract with APLNG to 2034

• We have invested in transportation and storage flexibility, enabling us to direct gas to the highest value market and optimise exposure to seasonal prices

2019 Full Year Results Announcement

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22 August 2019

Balancing market share and value in Retail

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Customer accounts Cost to serve Customer movement
(‘000) ($m) (‘000 customers)
60 FY2019
4,000
50
170 155 40
3,000 30
20
10
2,000
-
(10)
455 455
(20)
1,000
(30)
(40)
- (50)
Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 Jun-19 FY18 FY19 NSW QLD VIC SA
Electricity Gas Cost to acquire Cost to maintain Electricity Gas CES
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• Customer base has remained stable over time

• Disciplined approach to customer value

• Net gain of 18,000 in FY2019 driven by OC Energy acquisition

2019 Full Year Results Announcement

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22 August 2019

Churn and price dispersion reduced

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Customer churn

Market offers dispersion

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(Rolling 12 month)
25% Victoria (CitiPower) NSW (Endeavour)
$1,800 $2,800
$1,600
23% $2,300
$1,400
$1,800
$1,200
21% $1,000 $1,300
$800 $800
Nov-18 Jul-19 Nov-18 Jul-19
19%
Queensland (Energex) SA (SAPN)
$2,000 $2,600
17%
$1,800
$2,200
$1,600
15%
$1,800
$1,400
$1,200 $1,400
13% Nov-18 Jul-19 Nov-18 Jul-19
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Energex (QueenslaMarket offer rangeEnergex (Quee n sland)d)DMO/VDODMO/VDOEnergex …

Market Origin

Source: Energy Made Easy/Switchon - based on DMO/VDO reference bills for 5 MWh usage, as at 14/8/19, and $2$ 800 $2$ 800 offers quoted prior to announcement of DMO/VDO (Nov-18) including both discounted and standing offer rates

• Offers now quoted off DMO/VDO reference bill, improving market transparency

22 August 2019 2019 Full Year Results Announcement

28

Targeting a step change in our Retail business

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Simplified organisation driven by a customer and digital first mindset

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Transform customer experience

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Target market leading cost position

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Grow new revenue streams

• Simpler offers

• Streamlined customer journeys

• Effortless digital experience

• Targeting >$100 million cost out by FY2021

• Digitising operations and customer interactions

• Product and customer journey re-design

• Centralised Energy Services (CES)

• Solar and Storage

• Adjacencies

• New energy solutions

2019 Full Year Results Announcement

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22 August 2019

Retail transformation on track

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Transform
customer
experience
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Target market leading cost position

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Energy Markets – Cost to serve ($/customer)

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21.7 21.5 22.0
18.0
16.1
Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19
(6)
(10)
(13)
(16)
(22)
Interaction NPS
Strategic NPS
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171 169
<$145
FY18 FY19 FY21 Target
Cost to maintain Cost to acquire Target
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• Simple products and customer journeys

• Digital interactions at 83%

• E-billing customers 63%

• From 55 products to 17 products

• Service calls down 20%

• Increasing automation and offshore capability

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Grow w revenue Grow new revenue streams streams

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CES Gross Profit ($m)

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57
44
38
Jun-17 Jun-18 Jun-19
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Solar MW installs
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49
43
30
FY17 FY18 FY19
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2019 Full Year Results Announcement

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22 August 2019

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Integrated Gas

APLNG continues to improve performance

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APLNG Production APLNG Commodity Net cash (to)/from APLNG
400 (100%) (PJ) Revenue (100%) (A$m) (A$m) (37.5%)
4,000
350
3,500
300
3,000
250
2,500
200
2,000 943
150
1,500
100
1,000
363
50 500
- -
H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 FY17 FY18 FY19
FY18 FY19 FY18 FY19 (170)
Non Operated Production
Operated Production LNG Revenue
Domestic Revenue
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• Stable production despite planned outages on 12 of 15 operated gas processing facilities in FY2019

• Record gross operated production rate of 1,594 TJ/day achieved in August 2019 with ERIC online

• Revenue growth primarily driven by higher effective oil prices

• Net cash from APLNG of $943 million at effective oil price of US$73/boe and AUD/USD of 0.72

2019 Full Year Results Announcement

32

22 August 2019

Delivering on commitments

		June 2019
Metric	Baseline	Run Rate
		Target
Cost per Well1 A$m/well	2.4	1.2	✓
Operated opex2 A$/GJ	1.3	1.0	✓
Operating Breakeven US$/boe3	30	<24	✓
Distribution Breakeven US$/boe3	48	<40	✓
$500m Cost Out A$b	3.3	2.8
• $500 million reduction

• $500 million reduction achieved June 2019

• Increased in FY20 for additional scope to deliver sustained higher production

• 1) Standard unfracked vertical Surat well

• 2) Excludes pipelines and major turnaround maintenance 3) AUD/USD 0.75

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Distribution breakeven (US$/boe) AUD/USD 0.72

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39 - 42
36
16
15
23-26
21
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FY19 Guidance FY19 Actual

Project finance Operating breakeven

• FY2019 breakeven lower than previous guidance driven by:

• Lower sustain and E&A spend primarily from deferral and reduced scope (e.g. fewer wells fracked)

• Higher non oil linked revenue from a higher volume of domestic sales

33 22 August 2019 2019 Full Year Results Announcement

Unit cost targets achieved in June 2019

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Cost per well (A$m/well) [1]
2.4
1.9
1.4
1.2
FY2018 FY2018 FY2019 Run Rate
Baseline (Actual) (Actual) (June 2019)
Target
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Operating cost (A$/GJ)[2]

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1.3
1.2
1.0 1.0
FY2018 FY2018 FY2019 Run Rate
Baseline (Actual) (Actual) (June 2019)
Target
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• June 2019 run rate targets of $1.2 million per well and $1/GJ operated opex achieved

• Savings delivered through:

• Implementing a smaller, leaner asset led business model

• Simplified well design approach, competitive tendering; and

• Lower overheads, reduced electricity costs and streamlined maintenance

• 1) Standard vertical unfracked Surat well

• 2) Excludes pipeline and major turnaround maintenance costs

2019 Full Year Results Announcement

34

22 August 2019

Significant value uplift achieved in FY2019

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• Origin 2P reserves Increase in estimated recovery from operated producing areas •

• up 55 PJ, before Queensland gazettal block awarded underpinning >50 PJ of gas sales production (147 PJ to domestic customers APLNG 100%)

• Progressing initial development plan for Mahalo block

• Ironbark sale to APLNG announced, utilising nearby gas and water infrastructure to efficiently bring the gas to market

• Infrastructure •

• optimisation Eurombah Reedy Creek Interconnect (ERIC) pipeline constructed,

• Eurombah Reedy Creek Interconnect (ERIC) pipeline constructed, facilitating higher production by connecting excess gas supply at Reedy Creek to processing capacity at Spring Gully

• Near term cash generation from APLNG customer electing to pay for,

• Commercial but defer delivery of, 30 cargoes over 6 years (2019 – 2024) updates • Long term infrastructure sharing agreement with QGC and potential margin on up to 350 PJ of gas (2024-2034)

1) Some of APLNG’s CSG reserves and resources are subject to reversionary rights and ongoing interest in favour of Tri-Star. Refer to section 7 of the Operating and Financial Review released to the ASX on 22 August 2019 for further information.

2019 Full Year Results Announcement

35

22 August 2019

APLNG underpinned by a solid reserves base

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APLNG reserves position (PJ)
18000
15000
12000
9000
6000 ~66%
3000
0
Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 Jun-19
Production 1P P2 P3
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• Stable reserves with a steady trend converging towards 3P since FID

• Before production, 1P continues to grow with development drilling (~66% of 3P reserves base since FID)

• 2P up slightly before production reflecting:

• updated drilling plans based on improved field performance and new fields/bookings;

• offset by contingent resource reclassifications and reductions in non-operated areas

• 1) Reserves are 100% APLNG as reported in FY2019 Reserves Report released to the ASX on 22 August 2019.

• 2) Some of APLNG’s CSG reserves and resources are subject to reversionary rights and ongoing interest in favour of Tri-Star. Refer to section 7 of the Operating and Financial Review released to the ASX on 22 August 2019 for further information.

36 22 August 2019 2019 Full Year Results Announcement

APLNG production and cost outlook

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APLNG Production (100%)
680-700
700
676 679
650
600
610
550
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20
Guidance
PJ
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• 680-700 PJ estimated in FY2020

• Increased operated production with ERIC pipeline online

• Focus is on economically filling available upstream ullage

APLNG (100%)	FY17	FY18	FY19	FY2020 Guidance
Production (PJ)	610	676	679	680-700
Capex + opex, excl. purchases1(A$b)	2.7	2.6	2.7	2.8 – 3.0

• FY2019 distribution breakeven US$36/boe

• FY2020 distribution breakeven estimated at US$3336/boe[3]

• Unit cost reductions offset by additional scope to deliver higher sustained plateau production

  • Higher well costs: Larger proportion of fracked and horizontal wells and preparatory spend for FY2021

  • Higher workovers due to more wells online

• 1) Operating cash costs excludes purchases and reflects royalties payable at the breakeven oil price. Royalties payable increases as oil price increases

• 2) FY2021-2024 target is based on current deliverability and cost estimates

  • Spend on spares and downstream maintenance

• Continued focus on cost reduction and value enhancement initiatives.

• 3) FX Rate: 0.70 AUD/USD, reflects royalties payable at the breakeven oil price, excludes Ironbark acquisition costs

37 22 August 2019 2019 Full Year Results Announcement

Beetaloo

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Northern
Territory
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• 70% interest in 18,500km[2] permit

Stage 2 appraisal commenced

  - Targeting Kyalla and Velkerri shale liquids-rich gas plays

  - Two horizontal wells to be drilled, fracture stimulated and put on extended production testing (EPT):

     - Kyalla: all environmental approvals in place

     - Velkerri: awaiting civils, drilling and stimulation approvals

  - Objective: flow liquids-rich gas from both plays

  - Drilling data and flow results, measurable from the start of the 90-day EPT

  - Results expected in FY2020

  - Project spend subject to Origin-wide capital allocation framework

• Four, stacked, unconventional plays

• 6.6 TCF gross 2C contingent resource relating to Velkerri B shale dry gas play (1,968 km[2] )[1]

• 1) Origin is not aware of any new information or data that materially affects the information included in the announcement to the ASX on 15 February 2017 and all material assumptions and technical parameters underpinning these estimates continue to apply and have not materially changed.

2019 Full Year Results Announcement

38

22 August 2019

Outlook

Frank Calabria, CEO

FY2020 Guidance

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Provided that market conditions do not materially change and the regulatory and political environment does not result in further adverse impacts on operations

Energy Markets

Energy Markets UnderlyingEBITDA	A$m	FY2019 1,574	FY2020 guidance 1,350 – 1,450	• •	Electricity down $180-$220 million: impact DMO/VDO (~$100 million), lower renewable certificate prices in Business tariffs, and lower usage Gas estimated to be relatively stable
Integrated Gas – APLNG 100%				•	$40-$50 million cost to serve savings
Total production Capex + opex, excl.purchases1	PJ A$m	679 2,691	680 – 700 2,800 – 3,000	APLNG • Increased operated production
Corporate Underlying costs	A$m	(234)	(70 – 80)	•	Estimated distribution breakeven of US$33- 36/boe2 (excludes Ironbark acquisition costs)
Capex (incl. investments)	A$m	(405)	(530 – 580)

Corporate

• Capex guidance includes $110 -$120 million in E&A, primarily Beetaloo

• • Current estimate of Oil/LNG hedging and trading costs of $84 million

• 1) Operating cash costs excludes purchases and reflects royalties at the breakeven oil price. Royalties payable increases as oil price increases. 2) FX Rate: 0.70 AUD/USD, excludes Ironbark acquisition costs

2019 Full Year Results Announcement

40

22 August 2019

Appendix

Electricity forward prices by state

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VIC NSW
$120
$120
$110 $110
$100 $100
$90 $90
$80 $80
$70 $70
$60 $60
$50 $50
Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19
QLD SA
$120 $120
$110 $110
$100 $100
$90 $90
$80 $80
$70 $70
$60 $60
$50 $50
Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19
A$/MWh A$/MWh
A$/MWh A$/MWh
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Source: AEMO

42 22 August 2019 2019 Full Year Results Announcement

Large scale renewable certificates

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LREC forward prices
$80
8
$70
7
$60
6
$50
5
$40
4
$30
3
$20 2
$10 1
$0 -
Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19
Cal 19 Cal 20 FY20 Average
Source: HVB
Millions
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Origin’s LREC position
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2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Legacy & Contracts Recent solar deals
Stockyard Hill Shortfall
Retail and C&I demand Retail demand
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• Relatively fixed cost of ~4-5 million LREC certificates over the longer term

2019 Full Year Results Announcement

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22 August 2019

Oil price risk management

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85 FY2020 Oil hedging
80 FY20 effective price
FY20 effective price after hedging
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85
FY20 average market oil price (US$/bbl)
Effective oil price (US$/bbl)
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FY2020 oil hedging

• $28 million[1] hedge premium

• Gain of $21 million based on forward market prices as at 20 August 2019

• 11.6 mmbbl hedged at US$48/bbl floor

• 2.5 mmbbl capped at US$85/bbl

• 3 mmbbl fixed via a swap at A$97/bbl

• Estimated Origin JCC exposure ~23mmbbl

1) FX Rate: 0.70 AUD/USD

2019 Full Year Results Announcement

22 August 2019

44

Provision for legacy sites

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• We hold provisions for the remediation of a number of legacy sites that historically operated as gasworks

• The largest provision for site remediation relates to the Osborne site in South Australia which operated as a gasworks from 1928 to 1979

• The Osborne site was originally leased to the South Australian Gas Company which through various transactions over time was transferred to Origin

• External experts have undertaken further onsite investigations to assess the cost to remediate the land to the required standard, including an appropriate contingency, which has informed Origin’s provisioning for this site

• An increase of $170 million in the provision for legacy sites has been expensed in FY2019

• Spending expected to be phased over a number of years

2019 Full Year Results Announcement

22 August 2019

45

Statutory to Underlying Profit

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Reconciliation from Statutory to Underlying Profit

Year ended 30 June	2019	2018	Change	Change
	($m)	($m)	($m)	(%)
Statutory Profit/(Loss) - continuing operations	1,211	280	931	333
Statutory Profit/(Loss) - discontinued operations	-	(62)	62	(100)
Statutory Profit/(Loss) - total operations	1,211	218	993	456
Items Excluded from Underlying Profit (post-tax)
Fair value and foreign exchange movements1	139	(298)	437	(147)
Oil and gas	59	(113)	172	(152)
Electricity	(88)	(175)	87	(50)
FX and interest rate	(43)	(5)	(38)	760
Other financial asset/liabilities	274	(32)	306	(956)
Foreign exchange loss on LNG financing	(63)	27	(90)	(333)
Disposals, impairments and business restructuring	44	(394)	438	(111)
Total Items Excluded from Underlying Profit (post-tax)	183	(692)	875	(126)
Underlying Profit - total operations	1,028	910	118	13
Underlying Profit - discontinued operations	-	184	(184)	(100)
Underlying Profit - continuing operations	1,028	726	302	42

1) FY2018 has been restated to include certain electricity hedge premiums within Underlying earnings ($160 million pre-tax, $112 million post-tax)

46 22 August 2019 2019 Full Year Results Announcement

Segment summary

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1,2 1,2 Year Ended 30 June ($m) Energy Markets Share of APLNG Integrated Corporate Total Gas - Other 2019 20181,2 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019 20181,2 Underlying EBITDA 1,574 1,651 2,123 1,405 (231) (154) (234) (115) 3,232 2,787 Underlying EBIT 1,173 1,293 613 207 (243) (172) (234) (115) 1,308 1,212 Underlying Profit/(Loss) 1,173 1,293 613 207 (17) 54 (741) (828) 1,028 726 Operating cash flow 1,707 1,345 - - (208) (149) (174) (213) 1,325 983 Investing cash flow (357) (35) - - 946 266 - 1,214 589 1,446 Interest paid - - - - - - (375) (474) (375) (474) Free cash flow 1,350 1,310 - - 737 117 (548) 527 1,539 1,955	1,2 1,2 Year Ended 30 June ($m) Energy Markets Share of APLNG Integrated Corporate Total Gas - Other 2019 20181,2 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019 20181,2 Underlying EBITDA 1,574 1,651 2,123 1,405 (231) (154) (234) (115) 3,232 2,787 Underlying EBIT 1,173 1,293 613 207 (243) (172) (234) (115) 1,308 1,212 Underlying Profit/(Loss) 1,173 1,293 613 207 (17) 54 (741) (828) 1,028 726 Operating cash flow 1,707 1,345 - - (208) (149) (174) (213) 1,325 983 Investing cash flow (357) (35) - - 946 266 - 1,214 589 1,446 Interest paid - - - - - - (375) (474) (375) (474) Free cash flow 1,350 1,310 - - 737 117 (548) 527 1,539 1,955	1,2 1,2 Year Ended 30 June ($m) Energy Markets Share of APLNG Integrated Corporate Total Gas - Other 2019 20181,2 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019 20181,2 Underlying EBITDA 1,574 1,651 2,123 1,405 (231) (154) (234) (115) 3,232 2,787 Underlying EBIT 1,173 1,293 613 207 (243) (172) (234) (115) 1,308 1,212 Underlying Profit/(Loss) 1,173 1,293 613 207 (17) 54 (741) (828) 1,028 726 Operating cash flow 1,707 1,345 - - (208) (149) (174) (213) 1,325 983 Investing cash flow (357) (35) - - 946 266 - 1,214 589 1,446 Interest paid - - - - - - (375) (474) (375) (474) Free cash flow 1,350 1,310 - - 737 117 (548) 527 1,539 1,955	1,2 1,2 Year Ended 30 June ($m) Energy Markets Share of APLNG Integrated Corporate Total Gas - Other 2019 20181,2 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019 20181,2 Underlying EBITDA 1,574 1,651 2,123 1,405 (231) (154) (234) (115) 3,232 2,787 Underlying EBIT 1,173 1,293 613 207 (243) (172) (234) (115) 1,308 1,212 Underlying Profit/(Loss) 1,173 1,293 613 207 (17) 54 (741) (828) 1,028 726 Operating cash flow 1,707 1,345 - - (208) (149) (174) (213) 1,325 983 Investing cash flow (357) (35) - - 946 266 - 1,214 589 1,446 Interest paid - - - - - - (375) (474) (375) (474) Free cash flow 1,350 1,310 - - 737 117 (548) 527 1,539 1,955	1,2 1,2 Year Ended 30 June ($m) Energy Markets Share of APLNG Integrated Corporate Total Gas - Other 2019 20181,2 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019 20181,2 Underlying EBITDA 1,574 1,651 2,123 1,405 (231) (154) (234) (115) 3,232 2,787 Underlying EBIT 1,173 1,293 613 207 (243) (172) (234) (115) 1,308 1,212 Underlying Profit/(Loss) 1,173 1,293 613 207 (17) 54 (741) (828) 1,028 726 Operating cash flow 1,707 1,345 - - (208) (149) (174) (213) 1,325 983 Investing cash flow (357) (35) - - 946 266 - 1,214 589 1,446 Interest paid - - - - - - (375) (474) (375) (474) Free cash flow 1,350 1,310 - - 737 117 (548) 527 1,539 1,955
Underlying EBITDA 1,574 1,651 Underlying EBIT 1,173 1,293 Underlying Profit/(Loss) 1,173 1,293	2,123 1,405 613 207 613 207	(231) (154)	(234) (115)	3,232 2,787
		(243) (172) (17) 54	(234) (115) (741) (828)	1,308 1,212 1,028 726
Operating cash flow 1,707 1,345 Investing cash flow (357) (35)	- - - -	(208) (149) 946 266	(174) (213) - 1,214	1,325 983 589 1,446
Interest paid - -	- -	- -	(375) (474)	(375) (474)
Free cash flow 1,350 1,310	- -	737 117	(548) 527	1,539 1,955

• 1) FY2018 represents continuing operations and has been restated to include certain electricity hedge premiums within underlying earnings ($160 million pre-tax, $112 million post-tax)

• 2) FY2018 cashflow has been restated to reflect a reclassification of movements in futures exchange collateral balances to operating cash flow, previously in financing cash flows (FY2018: $170 million outflow)

2019 Full Year Results Announcement

22 August 2019

47

Underlying ROCE

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As at	30 Jun 2019	30 Jun 2018	Change	Change
	($m)	($m)	($m)	(%)
Capital Employed
Net Assets - continuing operations	13,149	11,828	1,321	11
including:
Investment in APLNG	6,960	5,988	972	16
MRCPS issued by APLNG	3,045	3,620	(575)	(16)
Non-cash fair value uplift	(26)	(28)	2	(7)
Adjusted net assets – continuing operations	13,123	11,800	1,323	11
Origin Adjusted Net Debt	5,417	6,529	(1,112)	(17)
Net derivative liabilities	735	830	(95)	(11)
Origin's share of APLNG net debt (project finance less cash)	3,055	3,272	(217)	(7)
Capital employed - continuing operations	22,330	22,432	(101)	(0)
Origin's Underlying EBIT - continuing operations	1,308	1,213	96	8
Origin's equity share of APLNG interest and tax	717	503	213	42
Dilution depreciation adjustment	2	2	-	-
Adjusted EBIT - continuing operations	2,027	1,717	309	18
Adjusted EBIT - discontinued operations	-	271	(271)	(100)
Adjusted EBIT	2,027	1,988	38	2
Average capital employed - continuing operations	22,380	22,403	(23)	(0)
Average capital employed - discontinued operations	-	665	(665)	(100)
Average capital employed	22,380	23,068	(688)	(3)
Underlying ROCE - continuing operations	9.1%	7.7%		1.4%
Energy Markets	12.2%	13.6%		-1.4%
Integrated Gas	8.2%	4.1%		4.1%
Underlying ROCE	9.1%	8.6%		0.4%

48 22 August 2019 2019 Full Year Results Announcement

Reconciliation of Adjusted Net Debt

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	Issue	Issue	Hedged	Hedged	AUD $m	AUD $m	AUD $m
	Currency	Notional	Currency	Notional	30-Jun-19	30-Jun-19	30-Jun-19
					Interest- bearing liabilities	Debt and CCIRS fair value adjustments	Adjusted net debt
AUD debt	AUD	526	AUD	526	501	-	501
USD Debt left in USD	USD	1,195	USD	1,195	1,695	-	1,695
EUR debt swapped to AUD	EUR	2,700	AUD	3,691	4,447	(761)	3,686
EUR debt swapped to USD	EUR	500	USD	646	810	106	916
NZD debt swapped to AUD	NZD	141	AUD	125	136	(11)	125
Other Borrowings (Pacific Islands)					7	-	7
Total					7,596	(667)	6,929
Cash and cash equivalents1							(1,512)
Adjusted Net Debt							5,417

1) Excludes $34 million (FY2018: $33 million) cash held on behalf of APLNG as upstream operator

2019 Full Year Results Announcement

49

22 August 2019

Capital expenditure program

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600
500
400
300
200
100
-
FY19 1 FY20 Guidance
mid-point
Generation sustain Other sustain
Productivity/growth E&A
$M
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FY2020 Capex

• Generation sustain includes $25 million in creditor payments from the prior year, cost associated with Mortlake repairs and Eraring ash dam as well as other scheduled maintenance.

• Other sustain includes LPG capex, implementation of a new ERP system and spend associated with regulatory market reforms.

• Productivity & Growth includes generation upgrades, OC energy costs, investment in retail capability, Solar and Future Energy.

• E&A: Primarily relating to Beetaloo Stage 2 appraisal and preparation for Stage 3

• 1) FY19: productivity/growth includes $64 million of acquisition

22 August 2019 2019 Full Year Results Announcement

50

FY2019 breakeven

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100% APLNG (A$m)	FY2019 Actual1	FY2019 Guidance1	Change
Capital expenditure – Sustain	1,175	1,320	(145)
Capital expenditure – E&A	102	140	(38)
Operating expenses – pre capitalisation2	1,649	1,690	(41)
Less: Spot LNG & domestic revenue	(1,133)	(1,050)	(83)
Operating breakeven	1,792	2,100	(308)
Operating breakeven (US$/boe)	21	23 - 26
Net interest paid	463	490	(27)
Project financeprincipal	808	820	(12)
Distribution breakeven	3,063	3,410	(347)
Distribution breakeven (US$/boe)	36	39 - 42
Sales volumes
Domestic and Spot LNG (PJ)	212	200	12
Contract LNG volumes (PJ)	464	461	3
Contract LNG volumes (mmboe)	61.2	60.8	0.4

• 1) AUD/USD: 0.72 2) Operating expenses include royalties payable at the breakeven oil price. Royalties increases as oil price increases

2019 Full Year Results Announcement

22 August 2019

51

Important Notices

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Forward looking statements

This presentation contains forward looking statements, including statements of current intention, statements of opinion and predictions as to possible future events. Such statements are not statements of fact and there can be no certainty of outcome in relation to the matters to which the statements relate. These forward looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties, assumptions and other important factors that could cause the actual outcomes to be materially different from the events or results expressed or implied by such statements. Those risks, uncertainties, assumptions and other important factors are not all within the control of Origin and cannot be predicted by Origin and include changes in circumstances or events that may cause objectives to change as well as risks, circumstances and events specific to the industry, countries and markets in which Origin and its related bodies corporate, joint ventures and associated undertakings operate. They also include general economic conditions, exchange rates, interest rates, regulatory environments, competitive pressures, selling price, market demand and conditions in the financial markets which may cause objectives to change or may cause outcomes not to be realised.

None of Origin Energy Limited or any of its respective subsidiaries, affiliates and associated companies (or any of their respective officers, employees or agents) (the Relevant Persons) makes any representation, assurance or guarantee as to the accuracy or likelihood of fulfilment of any forward looking statement or any outcomes expressed or implied in any forward looking statements. The forward looking statements in this presentation reflect views held only at the date of this presentation.

Statements about past performance are not necessarily indicative of future performance.

Except as required by applicable law or the ASX Listing Rules, the Relevant Persons disclaim any obligation or undertaking to publicly update any forward looking statements, whether as a result of new information or future events.

No offer of securities

This presentation does not constitute investment advice, or an inducement or recommendation to acquire or dispose of any securities in Origin, in any jurisdiction.

2019 Full Year Results Announcement

52

22 August 2019

Important Notices

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All figures in this presentation relate to businesses of the Origin Energy Group (Origin, or the Company), being Origin Energy Limited and its controlled entities, for the reporting period ended 30 June 2019 (the period) compared with the reporting period ended 30 June 2018 (the prior corresponding period), except where otherwise stated.

Origin’s Financial Statements for the reporting period ended 30 June 2019 are presented in accordance with Australian Accounting Standards. The Segment results, which are used to measure segment performance, are disclosed in note A1 of the Financial Statements and are disclosed on a basis consistent with the information provided internally to the Chief Executive Officer. Origin’s Statutory Profit contains a number of items that when excluded provide a different perspective on the financial and operational performance of the business. Income Statement amounts presented on an underlying basis such as Underlying Consolidated Profit, are non-IFRS financial measures, and exclude the impact of these items consistent with the manner in which the Chief Executive Officer reviews the financial and operating performance of the business. Each underlying measure disclosed has been adjusted to remove the impact of these items on a consistent basis. A reconciliation and description of the items that contribute to the difference between Statutory Profit and Underlying Consolidated Profit is provided in the Operating and Financial Review.

This presentation also includes certain other non-IFRS financial measures. These non-IFRS financial measures are used internally by management to assess the performance of Origin’s business and make decisions on allocation of resources. Further information regarding the non-IFRS financial measures and other key terms used in this presentation are included in the Operating and Financial Review Appendix. Non-IFRS measures have not been subject to audit or review.

Certain comparative amounts from the prior corresponding period have been re-presented to conform to the current period’s presentation.

A reference to Australia Pacific LNG or APLNG is a reference to Australia Pacific LNG Pty Limited in which Origin holds a 37.5% shareholding. Origin’s shareholding in Australia Pacific LNG is equity accounted.

A reference to $ is a reference to Australian dollars unless specifically marked otherwise.

All references to debt are a reference to interest bearing debt only. Individual items and totals are rounded to the nearest appropriate number or decimal. Some totals may not add down the page due to rounding of individual components. When calculating a percentage change, a positive or negative percentage change denotes the mathematical movement in the underlying metric, rather than a positive or a detrimental impact. Measures for which the numbers change from negative to positive, or vice versa, are labelled as not applicable.

2019 Full Year Results Announcement

53

22 August 2019

For more information

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Peter Rice General Manager, Capital Markets Email: peter.rice@originenergy.com.au Office: +61 2 8345 5308 Mobile: + 61 417 230 306

Liam Barry Group Manager, Investor Relations Email: liam.barry@originenergy.com.au Office: +61 2 9375 5991 Mobile: + 61 401 710 367

www.originenergy.com.au

2019 Full Year Results Announcement

22 August 2019

54

Thank You

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