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Norske Skog ASA

Investor Presentation Nov 16, 2023

3687_rns_2023-11-16_adae12da-49cc-45d4-8b95-fa059c478c9f.pdf

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Capital Markets Day

16 November 2023

We create green value

Significant progress since CMD in 2021 Strategic transition nearing completion with earnings uplift ahead

2 1) Based on net debt as of Q3 2023 of NOK 2 662m adjusted for impact from insurance payments of NOK 694m to be received in Q4 2023 and NOK 215m to be received in Q1 2024, less payments made to repurchase shares in the period from 1 October 2023 to 6 November 2023 (completing the share repurchase programme) of NOK 129m, and dividend of NOK 57m to be paid on or about 28 November 2023; 2) Based on a share price of NOK 40.3 (at close on 14 November 2023) and 84 838 235 shares which excludes 9 426 470 shares held in treasury by Norske Skog ASA

Today's agenda

Fibre processing industry

Creating value from fibre Make more out of wood

Production process Products

Publication paper Packaging paper

Sources of cost competitiveness

Internal heat production through biomass

and waste-to-energy boilers P

  • Evenly balanced exposure to recycled paper and fresh fibre P
  • Focus on short in- and outbound transportation and efficient logistics P
  • Large industrial sites and paper machines yielding fixed cost efficiency P

Positive cash flows through the cycle

Enabled by competitive industrial sites

6 1) Cash earnings defined as cash flow from operations less maintenance capex; 2) Based on net debt as of Q3 2023 of NOK 2 662m adjusted for impact from insurance payments of NOK 694m to be received in Q4 2023 and NOK 215m to be received in Q1 2024, less payments made to repurchase shares in the period from 1 October 2023 to 6 November 2023 (completing the share repurchase programme) of NOK 129m, and dividend of NOK 57m to be paid on or about 28 November 2023

Five high quality industrial sites Industrial sites with supporting infrastructure for energy, fibre and water

Five paper machines Competitive publication paper machines with excellent infrastructure

Four paper machines Packaging strategy underway with conversion of two paper machines from publication paper to containerboard

Two paper machines Gradual regional exit with sale of Albury, Tasman, Nature's Flame and forest assets

Significant investments since 2019 Announced investment programmes near completion

Significant annual growth investments executed since 2019… … with earnings uplift ahead

  • Maintenance capex
  • Expansion capex

Investments driving shift into packaging

Strategic shift into packaging paper underpinned by energy investments

P Projects at Norske Skog Bruck completed P Projects at Norske Skog Golbey completed during H2 2024

Containerboard production

  • Started Q1 2023
  • Net capex EUR 120m
  • Capacity 210kt

Waste-to-energy boiler

  • Started Q2 2022
  • Net capex EUR 72m
  • Capacity 50 MW (heat)

Containerboard production

  • Starting H2 2024
  • Net capex EUR 300m
  • Capacity 550kt

Biomass boiler JV

  • Starting Q2 2024
  • Equity share EUR 5m
  • Capacity 125 MW

Green Valley Energie is a JV between Norske Skog (10%), Veolia (10%) and Pearl Infrastructure (80%), where Norske Skog will be sole offtaker of steam under a competitive long-term contract

9

Opportunities at Saugbrugs Insurance settlement offers flexibility

  • Rockslide on 27 April damaging buildings and machinery, no one physically harmed
  • Excellent effort from personnel and other stakeholders to the mill, following up a wide range of tasks after the rockslide
  • Insurance settlement of NOK 0.9bn to be received during Q4 2023 and Q1 2024, and NOK 0.6bn to be received as investments are made
  • Flexibility to rebuild to SC magazine paper production at PM6 and to explore other product alternatives
  • Continue to build upon the significant expertise and competence of the mill organisation, as well as highly efficient TMP and energy assets
  • Saugbrugs will remain a cornerstone business and important employer in Halden

Eleven well invested paper machines

Paper machine portfolio diversified across grades and markets

Country Mill PM Built Width, mm Speed, m/min News, kt SC, kt LWC, kt RCCM, kt Sum, kt
Norway Skogn PM1 1966 6 670 950 -
1 150
150
PM2 1967 6 670 1 100 -
1 300
150 510
PM3 1981 8 540 1 300 -
1 420
210
Saugbrugs PM4 1963 4 600 1 100 -
1 250
100 200
PM5 1968 6 180 900 -
1 000
100
Austria Bruck PM3 2023 5 300 500 -
1 000
210 475
PM4 1989 6 260 1 100 -
1 450
265
France Golbey PM1 2024 8 650 1 000 -
1 600
550
Start-up
H2 2024
880
PM2 1992 9 760 1 600 -
1 800
330
Australia Boyer PM2 1952 5 660 800 -
1 100
135 285
PM3 1969 6 600 800 -
1 150
150
Publication Paper Europe 840 200 265 1 305
Publication Paper Australasia 150 135 285
Packaging Paper 760 760
Group 990 200 400 760 2 350

Introduction to the industrial sites

Norske Skog Bruck

Industrial site integrated with the local community

Containerboard capacity of 210kt (PM3) started Q1 2023 50 MWth waste-to-energy boiler started in Q2 2022

25ha industrial site with all permits and certifications

Gas turbine of 40 MWel enabling energy flexibility

Regional player for industrial district heating

13

Central European location with excellent road and rail access

Zero waste from paper production (scope 1)

Low fossil CO2 emissions with waste-to-energy boiler

Well invested LWC machine (PM4) with 265kt capacity

Electric grid of 100 MW directly to the site

Balancing energy supplier to stabilise European power grid

450 experienced employees and independent organisation

Production levels returning at Bruck following start-up of containerboard production backed by waste-to-energy

Significant reduction in gas consumption and increasing efficiency as containerboard production ramps-up

Waste-to-energy with 430 GWh of very cost-efficient thermal energy

  • Start Q2 2022 with full utilisation Q1 2023, taken over from Valmet in October 2023
  • Produces 430 GWh (50 MW) thermal energy with Bruck as sole offtaker
  • Provides access to highly cost competitive thermal energy for Bruck's containerboard production
  • CO2 emissions from waste-to-energy mainly classified as biogenic

Continued growth and progress into the containerboard market

Bruck PM3

  • Continued ramp-up of containerboard production at Bruck PM3
  • Improving production cost as utilisation and optimisation increases
  • Expect full utilisation during H2 2025

Norske Skog Golbey

Cost leading production of newsprint, and containerboard from H2 2024

70ha site with large scale industrial activity

Containerboard capacity of 550kt (PM1) starting H2 2024

Biomass boiler JV (GVE) of 125 MWth starting Q2 2024

Gas boilers of 95 MWth providing back-up

390 skilled employees and independent organisation

18

Expanded and upgraded de-inking (DIP) capacity

Well connected for both road and rail transport

Surplus of ETS allowances and limited fossil emissions

Cost leading newsprint (PM2) production of 330kt

Fully based on established supply recovered paper

Low cost ARENH and Exeltium PPAs to 2030

Expanded water treatment and warehouse facilities

Golbey is a cost-efficient and low emission paper mill positioned for the future

Reduced energy consumption and fully based on recycled paper strengthens sustainability profile

Green Valley Energie providing 700 GWh green thermal energy

  • Green Valley Energie (GVE) biomass plant startup in Q2 2024
  • Sell green electricity to the French grid and green steam to Golbey under long contracts, replacing fossil natural gas
  • Provides access to highly cost competitive thermal energy for Golbey's containerboard
  • Efficient and environmental use of waste wood and high overall energy efficiency

GVE partners

  • Norske Skog (10%): Offtaker of all steam production and responsible for sourcing biomass feedstock
  • Pearl Infrastructure Capital (80%): Private equity fund specialised in environmental infrastructure projects
  • Veolia (10%): Responsible for O&M activities, guarantee electricity and steam supply

Brand new containerboard machine from Voith being installed

Golbey PM1

  • Start-up moved to H2 2024
  • Increases Norske Skog containerboard production capacity from 210kt to 760kt
  • Expect to reach 90% of full capacity during early 2026
  • Capex of EUR 300m, net of grants and energy certificates received 2023-27

Golbey PM1 containerboard conversion video

Norske Skog Saugbrugs Industrial site with multiple opportunities based on fresh fibre and green energy

40ha site and large surrounding real estate

Norway's largest biomass boiler of 70 MWth

Low cost TMP capacity of 450kt with heat recovery

Infrastructure for road, rail and sea transport

Developing the CEBINA and CEBICO bio products

440 skilled employees and independent organisation

24

280 MW electric grid capacity directly to site

ETS allowance surplus and almost zero fossil emissions

Two operating SC machines with 200kt capacity

Well established access to significant pulpwood supply

Low price PPA with Statkraft of 100 MWel to end of 2026

Abundant fresh water supply and effluent treatment

Saugbrugs is a leading SC producer, but temporarily impacted by rockslide reducing production capacity

Production capacity and operational efficiency reduced following rockslide, but will improve with PM5 restart

Attractive investment propositions using existing infrastructure

TMP lines Water treatment

  • Rockslide on 27 April damaging buildings and machinery, no one physically harmed. Insurance settlement announced 2 November
  • Remaining business interruption insurance proceeds of NOK 368m and NOK 216m to be paid in Q4 2023 and Q1 2024, respectively
  • Remaining property damage insurance proceeds of NOK 326m to be paid in Q4 2023, and additional NOK 615m as investments accrue
  • In addition, an estimated amount of NOK 550m will be used to cover costs of securing rock formations and rebuilding building structures
  • PM6 has sustained damage, but surrounding and valuable infrastructure remains intact
  • Property damage insurance for new machinery can be used to rebuild PM6 to SC production or other products
  • Significant potential investment savings from reusing infrastructure

Saugbrugs holds a large property portfolio with several development opportunities currently in process

Overview of Saugbrugs administration buildings

Overview of Sauøya

Real estate development

  • High school sold to Viken in Q4 2022 for gross property value of NOK 730m 1
  • Cleared ground area of ~4k sqm prepared for new property developments 2
  • Considering refurbishing current Saugbrugs administration offices for new tenants (ground area of ~3k sqm) 3
  • Buildings remain in place and exploring property development opportunities (ground area of ~3k sqm) 4
  • Existing parking area (~6.5k sqm) attractive for surrounding suburbs and businesses 5
  • Sauøya used for logistics operations by Saugbrugs and industrial activity by external parties, partial re-regulation for housing purposes in process 6

Continued commercialisation of CEBINA and CEBICO

CEBINA: Nano cellulose adds strength and rheology to materials

CEBICO: Partners showcasing innovative uses of bio composites

  • Product development together with Hunton for fibreboard application
  • Exploring several new directions such as biobased furniture foam
  • Established production capacity for coating applications

  • Letter of intent with Høiax for use of bio composite in hot water tanks

  • CTM Lyng designed a simpler and lighter downlight using CEBICO bio composite
  • 3D printed bench applying 100% biobased and degradable composite

Norske Skog Skogn

Ideally suited for low cost and low fossil emission production of fibre products

Skogn is a cost-efficient and low CO2 newsprint producer with excellent infrastructure and raw material access

Stable and efficient operations, shifting to fully based on pulpwood from H1 2024

Norske Skog Boyer

Last mill standing in Australasia

565ha site partially zoned for industrial activity

Newsprint production capacity of 150kt (PM3)

TMP capacity of 250kt

Access by rail to Bell Bay port for sea transport

LWC magazine production capacity of 135kt (PM2)

Significant wood chipping capacity

On site rail connection and truck access with weigh bridge

275 skilled employees and independent organisation

33

155 MW electric grid capacity directly to site

Coal boiler capacity 75 MWth (exploring alternatives)

Long-term and low price PPA with TasHydro of 100 MWel

Abundant fresh water supply

Boyer is the last domestic supplier of publication paper in Australasia

34 1) Under the Safeguard Mechanism, designated large facilities (covered facilities) are those, which emit more than 100,000 tonnes of CO2 each financial year, and includes mining, gas production and processing, manufacturing, and transport facilities. There are presently 215 covered facilities, accounting for approximately 28% of Australia's greenhouse gas emissions. The covered facilities are required to keep their net scope 1 (i.e., direct) emissions of greenhouse gases at or below their emissions baseline, or limit. The baseline decline rate is set at 4.9% per year from 1 July 2023

Secured electricity and wood under long-term contracts

Packaging paper market

Fibre packaging market overview

Norske Skog is an independent producer of packaging paper

  • Independent producers are attractive suppliers for integrated and independent corrugators due to no competing downstream capacity
  • Norske Skog's customers will be a mix of integrated and independent corrugators
  • Integrated producers present in containerboard production, corrugating and box making, and working to develop demand through close interaction with the end-customer
  • High degree of open market trading to minimise transportation distance and get correct grades
  • Majority of corrugating machines with width of 2,500-2,800mm, requires 90-125k tonnes of containerboard per year per machine
  • Currently 650-700 corrugating machines in Europe, distributed across 350-400 corrugating companies
  • Customer base typically comprise 60-80 unique customers, meaning about 120 production sites
  • Large customers 4-5% of volume

Western European capacity for recycled containerboard expected to grow going forward

Increasingly important to be a cost-efficient producer to manage current low-price environment

Recycled fluting 105g Testliner 3 140g

Long-term growth trends remain intact although current market is challenging

Publication paper market

Print still represents majority of publisher revenues and paper is a small share of costs

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Trusted and long-term supplier to more than 400 customers across the world

Diversified customer base in Europe Boyer is last domestic supplier in Australasia

43% of European sales to top 15 customers

~30% of Australasian sales to two long-relationship customers

  • Norske Skog has more than 400 publication paper customers across the world
  • Sales are split between Europe ~70%, Oceania ~15%, Asia ~10% and other 5%
  • Diversified customer base in Europe with top 15 customers representing ~43% of sales
  • Contract duration in Europe now 1-3 months, down from 6-12 months historically
  • Higher customer concentration in Australasia with longer contracts

Signs of stabilising demand and normalising inventories, but still significant excess capacity

Norske Skog well situated on cash cost curves for all grades, and particularly within newsprint

Source: RISI mill asset database as of Q2 2023 Note: Columns with striped pattern indicate announced capacity closures by end of 2023

Newsprint market with signs of improving, but weakness and excess capacity remains within all grades

Announced Western European publication paper capacity closures all within magazine paper grades

Germany: 630kt (14%) Austria: 350kt (57%) Finland: 260kt (10%) Italy: 215kt (60%) Sum: 1 455kt (11%)

Publication paper capacity by company

Closures during Q4 2023

  • Peer 1: 630kt
  • Peer 3: 260kt
  • Others: 565kt
  • Sum: 1 455kt (11%)

48 Source: RISI mill asset database as of Q2 2023, company press releases 1) CM = Coated Mechanical; 2) UM = Uncoated Mechanical; 3) SC = Supercalendered; 4) UMI = Uncoated Mechanical Improved; 5) UMO = Uncoated Mechanical Other

Publication paper prices stabilising at low levels given current high raw materials price environment

Raw materials

Enabling the circular economy Continuously improving environmental reporting and footprint

A-

Recycled paper is the main source of fibre in Bruck and Golbey

  • One tonne of paper production requires ~1.2 tonnes of RCP or OCC
  • Recycled paper represent 50-60% of Norske Skog total fibre consumption, and all the fibre consumption in Golbey and close to all in Bruck
  • No upstream integration for sourcing of RCP or OCC, but enter volume contracts of 1-3 months which vary less in price than the spot market
  • Transportation costs varies from EUR 50-100 per tonne depending on distance to the paper mill and freight rates (road, rail, sea)

52 Source: RISI 1) Average across mills

Norwegian mills fully based on fresh fibre from H1 2024

  • One tonne of paper production requires 2.0-2.5 solid cubic metres of fresh fibre
  • Fresh fibre represents 40-50% of Norske Skog total fibre consumption, and all fibre consumption in Skogn and Saugbrugs as of H1 2024
  • No forest ownership for sourcing
  • Transportation costs varies from NOK 200-350 per solid cubic metre depending on distance to the paper mill and freight rates (road, rail, sea)

53 Source: Miljødirektoratet 1) Average across mills

Electricity and thermal energy are critical input factors

Electricity and gas prices (fossil natural gas is a common source of thermal energy)

  • Processing recycled paper requires 0.5-1.0 MWh of electricity per tonne of paper
  • Processing fresh fibre requires 2.5-3.0 MWh of electricity per tonne of paper production
  • Electricity represents slightly more than half of Norske Skog's total energy consumption, and close to all is purchased externally
  • Competitive electricity contracts lasting until 2026-30 currently covers 85-90% of requirement

Thermal energy

  • Drying paper requires 1.0-2.0 MWh of thermal energy (heat/steam) per tonne
  • Thermal energy represents slightly below half of Norske Skog total energy consumption
  • Large share (85-90%) of European thermal energy requirement from internal sources
    • Skogn: Biomass boilers and TMP recovery
    • Saugbrugs: Biomass boiler and TMP recovery
    • Golbey: GVE and own biomass boilers
    • Bruck: Waste-to-energy boiler

Norske Skog is a net receiver of CO2 allowances in Europe

EU ETS1 imposes a carbon tax on industrial installations of one EUA per tonne CO2 emitted

  • Certain industries subject to international competition exempted through Carbon Leakage mechanism, whereby several companies are allocated EUAs for free each year and a compensation payment is received to cover higher electricity costs under national regulation
  • The ETS and Carbon Leakage are currently in the first stage of Phase 4 (2021-25), and both are expected to be tightened in the second stage (2026-2030), both by i) reducing free EUA allocation and electricity compensation for some industries, and ii) by replacing Carbon Leakage with CBAM for certain industries. Pulp and paper not expected to be part of CBAM from 2026
  • Norway has reduced CO2 compensation by introducing a NOK 375 per EUA price regulation
  • France has fully implemented CO2 compensation under EU regulation
  • Austria introduced a one-time CO2 compensation payment for 2022, and is considering further implementation for future years

55 Source: ICE, European Commission 1) ETS = Emission Trading Scheme

Fixed cost efficiency to improve as production volume increases

  • Employee benefit expenses increasing slightly due to wage inflation
  • Other opex mainly comprising maintenance costs have increased due to inflation
  • Fixed costs per tonne increased significantly due to lower production volume because of ongoing conversion of Golbey PM1 (no production), landslide at Saugbrugs PM6 (no production) and ramp-up Bruck PM3 (small production) with full staff remaining in employment
  • Fixed cost efficiency to gradually improve as production volume increases in 2024-26

Volatile but declining production costs as raw material and energy prices come down from peak levels

  • Recycled paper costs down from recent highs, but transportation costs have remained elevated
  • Pulpwood costs and transportation close to all time high
  • Electricity and natural gas costs the main drivers of price increases for paper seen 2021-22
    • Increase for Norske Skog limited due to 85-90% of electricity requirement covered under long-term contracts
    • Norske Skog is also 85-90% covered on thermal energy from own biomass and waste-to-energy boilers
  • Other variable costs, comprising mainly coating and other chemicals, early signs of easing from high levels
  • Fixed cost per tonne up significantly due to conversion projects at Bruck and Golbey, and rockslide at Saugbrugs. Improved

Financials

Deliveries volume set to grow Deliveries growth from containerboard over next three years

Quarterly deliveries by grade Quarterly deliveries by mill

Revenue generation across all segments Ramp-up of containerboard at Bruck and Golbey to provide revenue growth

60 1) When at full utilisation from 2025-26

Targets, covenants and policies

Strong earnings capacity and financial position

Operating targets

  • Publication Paper: Utilisation +90% and EBITDA mid-cycle margin +10%
  • Packaging Paper: Utilisation +95% and EBITDA mid-cycle margin ~20% (2025-26)

Maintenance covenants

  • Equity ratio above 25%
  • Interest coverage ratio above 2.0x
  • Minimum cash above NOK 100m

Financial policies

  • Aim to have a leverage ratio less than 2.0x in the longer term
  • Financial flexibility to fund short and long-term capital requirements
  • Maintain a capital structure that suits the group's strategy
  • Access to a diversified range of capital sources
  • Keep maturity profile on financing arrangements spread out

Operations in line with targets over time

62

Financial position well within covenants and policies

total assets

Net debt divided by LTM EBITDA Leverage ratio policy below 2.0x

Liquidity position well beyond remaining net expansion capex

64 1) Based on net debt as of Q3 2023 of NOK 2 662m adjusted for impact from insurance payments of NOK 694m to be received in Q4 2023 and NOK 215m to be received in Q1 2024, less payments made to repurchase shares in the period from 1 October 2023 to 6 November 2023 (completing the share repurchase programme) of NOK 129m, and dividend of NOK 57m to be paid on or about 28 November 2023

Significant share of net expansion capex has been covered by operating cash flows after maintenance capex

Majority of debt financing at the mill level, with outstanding bond main financing source at parent level

Overview of main financing facilities as of Q3 2023

Bond: EUR 150m (EUR 138m outstanding)

  • Bullet amortisation Q1 2026 (first call Q1 2024)
  • Floating rate: EURIBOR 3m + 550bps

RCF: EUR 31m (undrawn)

  • Maturity Q1 2026
  • Floating rate: EURIBOR 3m + spread

Golbey containerboard debt: EUR 192m (drawn EUR 134m)

  • First amortisation Q1 2024, last amortisation 2031
  • Floating rate: EURIBOR 3m + spread

Bruck containerboard debt: EUR 70m

  • First amortisation Q3 2023, last amortisation 2031
  • Floating rate: EURIBOR 3m + spread

Bruck WtE facility debt: EUR 45m

  • First amortisation Q3 2022, last amortisation 2027
  • Fixed rate

Leases and factoring at competitive terms

Moving forward with a newly invested asset base and a large cash position

Concluding remarks

Outlook

Creating value from fibre

  • Optimise cash flows from publication paper production across all mills
  • Continue to increase production of packaging paper over next three years
  • Further exploration of new products based on fibre processing
  • Significant focus on project execution and cost efficiency going forward

Earnings from investment projects starting to take effect, and expected to grow over the next three years

We create

green value

Norske Skog ASA Postal address: P.O. Box 294 Skøyen, 0213 Oslo, Norway Visitors: Sjølyst Plass 2, 0278 Oslo, Norway

Phone: +47 22 51 20 20 Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected]

This presentation contains statements regarding the future in connection with Norske Skog's growth initiatives, profit figures, outlook, strategies and objectives . All statements regarding the future are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties, and many factors can lead to actual profits and developments deviating substantially from what has been expressed or implied in such statements .

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